证券研究报告 2025 年 4 月 14 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天延续反弹，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3238.23 | 0.45% | 14.59 | | | 深证成指 | 9834.44 | 0.82% | 79.80 | | | 沪深 300 | 3750.52 | 0.41% | 15.40 | | | 创业板 | 1926.37 | 1.36% | 25.84 | | | 科创 50 | 1011.71 | 2.07% | 20.48 | | | 北证 50 | 1284.14 | 1.48% | 18.79 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 3.77% | 农林牧渔 | ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 4 月 11 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周大盘探底回升，三大指数周 K 线收红，资金情绪持续修复。 本周市场在"国家队"护盘以及内需政策预期的支撑下企稳回升， 整体表现较为韧性。从周 K 线来看，上证指数下跌 3.11%，深证成 指下跌 5.13%，创业板指下跌 6.73%，科创 50 指数下跌 0.63%，北 证 50 指数上涨 0.92%。个股板块普跌，农林牧渔、商贸零售、国防 军工、食品饮料和交通运输等板块表现靠前，电力设备、通信、机 械设备、传媒和钢铁等板块表现靠后。 ◆下周大势研判：大盘渐进修复可期 从本周市场来看： 其次，3 月物价仍弱，中美贸易博弈背景下提振内需政策预期 强化。 首先，"对等关税"落地后我国积极行动，国家队护盘维稳资 本市场。 最后，4 月资金面有望平稳偏松，降准降息可期。 总体来看，本周大盘探底回升，三大指数周 K 线收红，资金情 绪持续修复。本周市场在"国家队"护盘以及内需政策预期的支撑 下企稳回升，整体表现较为韧性。从海外环境来看，"对等关税" 落地后，美国经济衰退担忧加剧，中美政策博弈仍然面临较大不确 定性，全球风险偏好及资产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on segments with domestic substitution logic and favorable supply-demand dynamics [1][34] - The recent trend of de-globalization has increased uncertainty in downstream demand for the basic chemical industry [34] Market Review - As of April 10, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry has seen a decline of 9.62% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.6 percentage points, ranking 26th among 30 sectors [12] - Year-to-date, the industry has decreased by 3.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.95 percentage points, ranking 16th [12] - The top five performing sub-sectors in the last two weeks include food and feed additives (-2.1%), daily chemicals (-2.2%), potassium fertilizer (-2.23%), civil explosives (-3.9%), and compound fertilizers (-5.16%) [16] - The bottom five performing sub-sectors include polyester (-16.74%), carbon fiber (-15.67%), other chemical raw materials (-14.75%), rubber additives (-14.26%), and lithium battery chemicals (-13.54%) [18] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five chemical products with price increases in the last week include bromine (+13.82%), PVDF powder (+10.53%), dichloropropane-white material (+6.94%), ammonium sulfate (+5.63%), and dipentene (+2.44%) [21] - The top five products with price declines include liquid chlorine (-16.33%), butadiene (-14.73%), PX (-13.54%), crude benzene (-12.45%), and styrene-butadiene rubber (-11.93%) [25] Sector Insights - In the refrigerant sector, the long-term contract prices for refrigerants are expected to continue rising, with R32 at 46,600 yuan/ton (up 14.77% from Q1) and R410A at 47,600 yuan/ton (up 14.42% from Q1) [34] - In the sucralose sector, the report highlights that the demand is primarily in essential consumer goods, with low sensitivity to price increases [34] - The lubricating oil additives market is dominated by four major companies, and domestic high-end products rely on imports, with potential for domestic substitution due to geopolitical tensions [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [2][44]. Core Insights - The communication industry is currently in a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy. The construction of communication facilities such as base stations, optical cables, and data centers is expected to continue, leading to new demands for devices, equipment, and service operations. The report suggests focusing on opportunities under the themes of "technology commercialization + policy catalysis + performance certainty" [3][41]. Summary by Sections Industry Market Review - The communication sector has seen a cumulative decline of 9.73% over the past two weeks (March 28 to April 10), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.71 percentage points. In April, the sector has dropped 9.63%, and year-to-date, it has decreased by 10.69%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.61 percentage points [11][12]. Industry News 1. IDC reported that the volcanic engine holds a 46.4% market share in China's public cloud large model service market as of 2024 [17][18]. 2. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is working on improving the 5G standard system and advancing research on 5G-A and 6G standards [19]. 3. IDC forecasts that China's total investment in artificial intelligence will exceed $100 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.2% [20]. 4. Juniper Research predicts that mobile operators will invest over $86 billion in AI from 2025 to 2029 [21]. 5. In February 2025, the domestic smartphone shipment reached 19.662 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.9% [22]. Company Announcements - Yiyuan Communication expects a net profit of approximately 200 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 265.19% [23][24]. - Zhongji Xuchuang anticipates a net profit of 1.4 to 1.7 billion yuan for the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 38.71% to 68.44% [25]. - StarNet Ruijie expects a net profit growth of 211.64% to 298.20% for the first quarter of 2025 [26]. Industry Data Updates - As of February 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.793 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.84% [27]. - The internet broadband access user base was about 675 million, up 6.04% year-on-year [30]. - The total length of optical cable lines reached approximately 72.88 million kilometers by Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.31% [32]. - By December 2024, the number of 5G base stations reached 4.251 million, with a net increase of 874,000 from the previous year [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Telecom (601728.SH), FiberHome (600498.SH), and Weisheng Information (688100.SH) as potential investment opportunities [41][42].

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [6] Core Insights - The financial sector is experiencing a favorable market environment, with regulatory support encouraging long-term capital inflow and enhancing market activity, which benefits brokerage firms and banks [7][51]. - The recent capital raising efforts by major banks aim to strengthen their core tier one capital, with a total fundraising amount of approximately RMB 5,200 billion, which is crucial for supporting economic growth and improving market confidence [8][49]. - The insurance sector is adjusting its asset allocation regulations to increase equity investments, which is expected to alleviate market liquidity issues and enhance overall investment returns for insurance companies [10][53]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of April 10, 2025, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have shown declines of -2.77%, -7.32%, and -5.17% respectively, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -5.02% [17]. - Among the sub-sectors, Shanghai Bank (+6.73%) and Xiangcai Securities (+25.98%) performed the best [17]. Valuation Situation - As of April 10, 2025, the PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.57, with state-owned banks at 0.60 and joint-stock banks at 0.50 [27]. - The securities sector's PB ratio is 1.49, indicating potential for valuation recovery [30]. Recent Market Indicators - The 1-year MLF rate is at 2.0%, with LPR rates at 3.10% for 1-year and 3.60% for 5-year [35]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares reached RMB 1,117.25 billion, reflecting a 46.04% increase week-on-week [38]. Industry News - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has issued new guidelines to adjust the regulatory ratios for insurance funds, allowing for increased equity asset allocation [10][53]. - Major banks are accelerating their stock repurchase and increase loans, with total credit exceeding RMB 300 billion [44]. Company Announcements - Ten listed brokerages have reported Q1 2025 earnings, with all showing varying degrees of growth, particularly CITIC Securities with a net profit of approximately RMB 6.545 billion [51]. - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of RMB 66.631 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.19% [48]. Weekly Insights - The banking sector is advised to focus on regional banks with strong performance and stable earnings, such as Ningbo Bank and Chengdu Bank [50]. - The securities sector is recommended to monitor firms with restructuring potential, including Zheshang Securities and Guolian Securities [52]. - The insurance sector should focus on companies with strong growth in new business value, such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [53].

行 业 锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 锂电池产业链双周报(2025/03/28-2025/04/10) 3 月新能源乘用车同环比快速增长 2025 年 4 月 11 日 投资要点： 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾：截至2025年4月10日，锂电池指数近两周下跌17.80%，跑输沪 深300指数12.78个百分点；锂电池指数本月至今累计下跌15.96%，跑输 沪深300指数12.05个百分点；锂电池指数年初至今下跌18.04%，跑输沪 深300指数12.96个百分点。 周 报 锂电池产业链近两周价格变动： 锂电池指数走势 锂盐：截至2025年4月10日，电池级碳酸锂均价7.13万元/吨，近两周下 跌4.55%；氢氧化锂(LiOH 56.5%)报价7.49万元/吨，近两周下跌1.19%。 正极材料：磷酸铁锂报价3.33万元/吨，近两周下跌1.19%；NCM523、 NCM622、NCM811分别报价11.95万元/吨、12.65万元/吨、14.95万元/吨， 近两周价格持稳。负极材料：人造石墨负极材料高端、低端分别报价4.85 万元/吨和2.10万元/吨，近两周价格分别持稳和上涨2.44%；负极材 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the coal industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The coal industry has experienced a decline of 4.83% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.19 percentage points, ranking 13th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, the coal industry has dropped 13.01%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.93 percentage points, ranking 31st [9][10]. - The report highlights that port inventories are beginning to decline, with a total of 29.935 million tons at the Bohai Rim ports as of April 10, down 2.41% from two weeks prior. However, the overall demand remains weak, leading to insufficient support for coal prices [42][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of April 10, 2025, the coal industry has seen a 4.83% decline in the last two weeks, with the thermal coal sector down 3.05%, coking coal down 7.62%, and coke down 11.05% [9][15]. - The report notes that the average daily pig iron output from surveyed steel mills increased by 1.49 million tons, indicating a slight uptick in demand despite the overall weak market conditions [43]. Industry Dynamics - The report cites that the China Coal Industry Association projects a 1.2% year-on-year increase in national raw coal production to 4.78 billion tons in 2024, with coal imports expected to rise by 14.4% to 54.3 million tons [37][43]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural reforms in the coal industry, with a focus on intelligent mining and increased mechanization, achieving a mechanization rate of 99.32% [43]. Company Announcements - The report mentions that China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy are recommended for their strong cash flow and stable performance [43][44]. - Recent operational data from Shaanxi Coal indicates a 0.15% year-on-year increase in commodity coal production for March 2025, totaling 15.27 million tons [43]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests monitoring macroeconomic policies and temperature changes, as these factors could influence coal demand and pricing in the coming weeks [42]. - The report also highlights the potential for coking coal prices to stabilize as temperatures rise and steel mill operations improve [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry index rose by 0.38% from March 28, 2025, to April 10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 5.40 percentage points during the same period [7][31]. - The tourism and hotel sectors showed strength, with the tourism and leisure sector increasing by 7.04%, while the education sector continued to decline, dropping by 9.80% [11][31]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the consumer services industry is approximately 32.58 times, which is below the average valuation of 50.81 times since 2016 [16][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, achieving a positive return amidst global market fluctuations [7]. - The tourism and hotel sectors experienced a rise in valuation due to lower valuations and supportive policies, while the education sector continued its downward trend [11]. - A total of 22 listed companies in the consumer services sector reported positive returns, with the top five performers being Lingnan Holdings, *ST Kaiyuan, ShouLai Hotel, Zhangjiajie, and China Duty Free, with increases ranging from 12.53% to 36.62% [13]. Industry News - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to favorable policies for inbound tourism, with a notable increase in domestic travel during the Qingming Festival, where domestic tourist numbers rose by 6.3% year-on-year [21]. - Various provinces have introduced differentiated policies to promote cultural and tourism development, aiming to enhance local tourism industries [24]. Company Announcements - China Duty Free signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Tongrentang to expand its overseas market presence [25]. - Jin Jiang Hotels reported a slight decline in revenue but plans to increase mid-term dividends [26]. - Foreign Service Holdings received industry policy support funds amounting to 10.35 million, positively impacting its financial outlook for 2025 [27]. Weekly Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors directly benefiting from local tourism development policies, such as scenic spots and online travel agencies (OTAs), while also considering cyclical sectors like human resources and education [31].

半导体行业 2025 年 4 月 11 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 行 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/03/28-2025/04/10） 行 业 贸易摩擦有望强化自主可控逻辑 投资要点： 风险提示：终端需求不及预期、国产替代不及预期、价格竞争加剧等。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年4月10日，半导体行业指数近两 周（2025/03/28-2025/04/10）累计下跌6.27%，跑输沪深300指数1.25个百 分点；2025年以来申万半导体行业指数累计下跌0.93%，跑赢沪深300指数 4.15个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 细分板块 ...

10% 医药生物 沪深300 医药生物行业 -5% 0% 5% 10% 医药生物 沪深300 超配（维持） 医药生物行业双周报（2025/3/28-2025/4/10） 关注进口替代细分板块 投资要点： 医药生物（申万）指数走势 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 周 报 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 医药生物 沪深300 -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% 5% -35% 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% -40% -20% 0% 20% 22-03 22-05 22-07 22-09 22-11 23-01 23-03 医药生物 沪深300 -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% ...