Core Viewpoints - The current Chinese real estate market is undergoing the deepest and longest adjustment period in history, with multiple indicators reverting to levels seen over a decade ago [5][66][77] - The sustained large losses of real estate companies will accelerate industry reshuffling and optimize the competitive landscape [5][66][77] - Future policies may be further intensified, and with China's economic resilience, the economic growth rate is expected to remain within a reasonable range, which could help shorten the current adjustment cycle [5][66][77] Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing nationwide has decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount has dropped by 7.9% [19][20] - The real estate development investment completion amount has fallen from a peak of 14.76 trillion yuan in 2021 to 10.02 trillion yuan in 2024, with an expected further decline to approximately 9 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a nearly 40% drop from the peak [66][50] - The average net asset return rate for listed real estate companies as of the end of Q3 2025 is -4.74%, ranking last among 31 industry sectors [45][66] Group 2: Performance of Real Estate Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed real estate companies reported a total operating revenue of 1.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11% [39][66] - The operating profit for the same period was -35.85 billion yuan, marking the first recorded loss since statistics began [39][66] - The net profit and attributable net profit were -58.52 billion yuan and -64.74 billion yuan, respectively, with losses significantly widening compared to the previous year [39][66] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued "bottoming" period for the real estate market, with historical comparisons suggesting that while the downward trend may be nearing its end, the timeline for recovery could still be extended [66][70] - The real estate market is expected to experience a three-phase valuation recovery process, with the current phase being the second, which requires stabilization and recovery of the fundamental market conditions [77][78] - Investment targets include stable central state-owned enterprises and regional leaders focused on first- and second-tier cities, which are expected to gain market share during the downturn [77][80]

Group 1: Market Overview - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown a "volatile upward trend, repeatedly hitting new highs," with a cumulative increase of 32.27% as of November 21, 2025, reaching a peak of 1670.01 points on September 8, 2025 [12][4] - The trading volume in the North Exchange has significantly increased, with a total transaction amount of 56,719.06 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 240.46% [13][19] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange reached 9,209.78 billion yuan by October 31, 2025, more than doubling since its inception, with the number of listed companies increasing from 81 to 280 [19][21] Group 2: Policy Impact - A series of policies based on the "Deep Reform 19 Articles" have enhanced market vitality and resilience, facilitating a transition from rapid "scale expansion" to high-quality development [22][24] - The North Exchange has introduced a more inclusive listing standard, directly serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, and has improved the listing mechanism to accommodate technology innovation companies [24][22] Group 3: Technology and Consumption Trends - The resonance between technology and consumption is identified as a core driver of economic growth, with significant advancements in artificial intelligence, robotics, and new consumption patterns [25][26] - The Chinese AI market is rapidly developing, with China holding 36% of the world's AI large models and leading in generative AI patents, having filed over 38,000 patents from 2014 to 2023 [26][28] - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with the global market expected to reach approximately 642.22 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 58.90% [44][46] Group 4: Consumer Market Recovery - Consumer spending has become a major driver of GDP growth in China, contributing 85.6% to economic growth in 2023 [55][56] - The medical beauty market in China is expected to grow from 2,669 billion yuan in 2023 to 2,964 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.60% from 2019 to 2024 [57][58] - The pet industry is also experiencing growth, with the number of pets in urban areas projected to reach 124.11 million by 2024, reflecting a 2.1% increase from 2023 [69][70]

市场表现： 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天探底回升，三大指数集体收红 | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3836.77 | 0.05% | 1.87 | | | 深证成指 | 12585.08 | 0.37% | 47.01 | | | 沪深 300 | 4448.05 | -0.12% | -5.56 | | | 创业板 | 2929.04 | 0.31% | 8.97 | | | 科创 50 | 1296.60 | 0.84% | 10.77 | | | 北证 50 | 1386.04 | 0.63% | 8.64 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 4.31% | 石油石 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new growth cycle driven by the rapid evolution of AI, with significant increases in revenue and net profit expected in 2025 [4][14][30] - The semiconductor sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached CNY 499.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, while net profit was CNY 44.46 billion, up 48.21% year-on-year [14][21] - The semiconductor index has outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 41.67% in 2025, significantly surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 25.57 percentage points [23][24] Group 2 - The demand for computing power is surging due to the rapid deployment of large AI models, with domestic computing power expected to break through as local AI chip companies accelerate their market presence [4][31] - The AI-driven expansion in storage is leading to a sustained shortage and price increases, with major storage companies raising prices significantly since September 2025 [4][23] - The semiconductor equipment sector is benefiting from increased capital expenditure in wafer expansion, with domestic alternatives gaining traction [4][31] Group 3 - Advanced packaging is becoming a crucial method for enhancing chip performance, aligning with the characteristics of AI development, and is expected to expand significantly [4][5] - The semiconductor industry is positioned to leverage AI as a core driver of growth, with opportunities across computing power, storage, equipment, and advanced packaging [5][30] - The overall profitability of the semiconductor sector has improved, with gross margins and net margins showing year-on-year increases [16][21]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook for copper and aluminum, while emphasizing the potential for rare metals and lithium to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [1][3]. Copper Industry - The copper supply-demand landscape is influenced by ongoing global supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for price increases supported by a global interest rate cut cycle [3][21]. - Domestic copper production is projected to slow down due to tightening copper concentrate supplies and low smelting fees, while demand from the renewable energy sector and AI electronics is expected to continue rising [3][50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's refined copper production reached 889.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%, driven by significant contributions from recycled copper and improved smelting technology [3][28]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by rigid supply constraints and differentiated demand, with prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector and gradual recovery in the real estate market [3][55]. - Domestic aluminum production is supported by stable bauxite supply and increasing imports, with a notable rise in imported bauxite by 33.6% year-on-year [3][59]. - The report indicates that the aluminum price is likely to maintain an upward trajectory due to the ongoing economic recovery and the anticipated demand from various sectors [3][55]. Strategic Metals - The rare earth supply is expected to stabilize, but demand needs to be boosted, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][4]. - Tungsten supply is projected to remain tight due to resource depletion and environmental regulations, while demand is stable, driven by applications in hard alloys and emerging technologies [3][4]. - Lithium production is set to benefit from the rapid expansion of energy storage and solid-state battery technologies, with a significant increase in demand anticipated [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term volatility [3][5]. - The report highlights that gold's monetary attributes are likely to be reinforced amid geopolitical tensions and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Western Mining (601168) for industrial metals, while recommending Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) for small metals and new materials [6]. - For energy metals, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) are highlighted as key players to watch [6]. - In the precious metals sector, Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) are recommended due to their potential for price appreciation [6].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the transition of the photovoltaic industry from "price wars" to "value wars," driven by technological innovation to achieve quality development [3][5][51] - As of Q3 2025, capital expenditure in the photovoltaic industry is significantly contracting, indicating a shift in focus from scale expansion to competition based on technology, brand, and profitability [3][80] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies with strong cash flow and technological barriers to navigate through the current industry challenges and enhance market concentration [3][80] Group 2 - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a critical transformation phase, characterized by a supply-demand imbalance and rapid technological iteration [5][14] - The report notes that the domestic photovoltaic market is expected to see a new development cycle due to continuous policy support and the construction of a new energy system [40][30] - By the end of 2024, China's cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity is projected to reach 886.7 GW, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.8% over the past decade [18][30] Group 3 - The report indicates that the global energy system is accelerating its transition towards low carbon, with renewable energy utilization and the clean low-carbon transformation of conventional energy becoming major trends [14][62] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with the new energy storage installed capacity projected to reach over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [5][30] - The report predicts that by 2030, the global cumulative energy storage capacity will reach around 1950 GWh, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the energy storage market [5][30]

Group 1: New Stock Performance - Four new stocks were listed from November 17 to November 21, with an average first-day price increase of 510.51%[2] - All four new stocks had first-day gains exceeding 100%, including Dapeng Industrial (1211.11%), Beikang Testing (295.52%), Hengkun New Materials (310.61%), and Nanguang Digital (224.78%)[4] - There were no instances of first-day price declines for new stocks during this period[2] Group 2: Weekly and Monthly Trends - The number of new stocks listed increased by 4 compared to the previous week, with total fundraising amounting to 40.49 billion yuan[3] - The average first-day price increase for new stocks rose compared to the previous week, with the range of first-day price changes being from 224.78% to 1211.11%[3] - For the month ending November 21, a total of 9 new stocks were listed, raising 76.34 billion yuan, with 8 stocks experiencing first-day gains over 100%[10]

超配（维持） 强政策刺激消费，关注结构性机会 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 消费者服务行业 2026 年投资策略 2025 年 11 月 24 日 推荐 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 消费者服务指数走势 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 消费者服务行业 ◼ 行业回顾：2025年年初以来，消费者服务指数整体波动上涨。截至 2025年11月20日，消费者服务指数整体上涨9.82%，跑输沪深300指 数。细分板块均上涨，其中免税行业受到多重政策支持利好出现较大 幅度上涨，带动旅游休闲板块上升，酒店餐饮板块竞争仍较激烈但供 需格局有所缓和。在政 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage industry underperformed the CSI 300 index from January to October 2025, with the SW food and beverage index declining by 5.52%, the largest drop among all Shenwan first-level industries, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 23.46 percentage points [5][14][15] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry also underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the beer sector experiencing the largest decline of 10.74%, while the health products sector saw an increase of 15.02% [15][19] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is below the historical average, with a PE ratio of approximately 21 times as of October 31, 2025, compared to a five-year average of 32 times [19][21] Group 2 - The liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with sales under pressure due to weak demand recovery and restrictions on alcohol consumption, leading to a significant decline in sales during key festive periods [23][24] - Major liquor companies are pragmatically lowering growth targets to alleviate channel pressures, with firms like Moutai and Wuliangye adopting flexible strategies in response to market changes [29][30] - Liquor companies are actively embracing new consumption trends by innovating products and channels, focusing on younger consumers and developing lower-alcohol products to cater to changing preferences [30][32] Group 3 - The beer sector is experiencing stable sales, with a focus on the recovery of consumption scenarios and the ongoing trend of product structure upgrades [3][14] - Beer companies are leveraging instant retail channels to contribute to sales growth, although cost advantages may narrow in the future [3][17] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a decline in beer sales, but there are expectations for marginal improvements moving forward [3][18] Group 4 - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry, which will drive demand growth for condiments [19][20] - Health-oriented products are pushing for structural optimization within the condiment industry, with leading companies likely to increase their market share [20][21] - The overall cost for condiment companies is anticipated to remain manageable, despite a slowdown in growth during the third quarter [22][23] Group 5 - The dairy sector is witnessing a weak recovery in demand, with a focus on supply and demand structures [23][25] - The penetration rate of low-temperature milk is expected to increase, supported by online channels and instant retail contributing to sales growth [25][26] - Leading dairy companies are likely to enhance their competitive advantages in the market [26][27] Group 6 - The snack sector is experiencing steady growth, with an increase in per capita consumption and a focus on core products driving company performance [27][28] - Companies in the snack sector are utilizing multiple channels to enhance market competitiveness, although performance remains varied across the sector [28][30] - The overall market size of the snack industry is steadily increasing, with significant growth potential in consumer spending [27][28]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.41% to 12538.07, and the ChiNext Index dropped 4.02% to 2920.08, indicating a broad market decline [2][4]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Media (-0.32%), Household Appliances (-0.40%), and Food & Beverage (-0.88%), while the worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-5.26%), Power Equipment (-5.17%), and Basic Chemicals (-4.70%) [3]. - Concept sectors showed mixed results, with the Shipbuilding sector gaining 3.24% and the Titanium Dioxide concept declining by 7.12% [3]. Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is experiencing volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 3900-point level. Despite this, factors such as improved Sino-US trade relations and supportive capital market policies are expected to have a positive impact on the market [4][5]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors such as banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and non-bank financials to capture structural opportunities [5]. Economic Indicators - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [4]. - The total refinancing amount for A-share listed companies exceeded 800 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 258% increase year-on-year, with targeted placements accounting for 756.4 billion yuan [4].