Group 1 - The report highlights that the overall performance of the fund market has been positive this year, with all types of fund indices recording positive returns, particularly equity funds, which have outperformed [3][8]. - Active investment strategies have outperformed passive strategies by approximately 3%, marking the first year of excess returns for active funds after three years of relative underperformance [3][8]. - The rapid growth of passive stock index funds has been noted, with their scale surpassing that of active equity funds, indicating a significant shift towards passive investment strategies [13][14]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the main line of equity market allocation is driven by abundant liquidity, which has led to valuation expansion in the stock market, but profitability improvements will ultimately determine the sustainability of the market rally [24][27]. - The report suggests that the "going abroad" strategy is essential for companies seeking new revenue and profit sources during the transition from old to new economic drivers, especially in the context of trade friction [24][38]. - Companies with core technological advantages, overseas brand channels, and supply chain capabilities are expected to experience rapid growth, making them attractive targets for equity fund allocation [24][54]. Group 3 - The report outlines that the investment direction for equity funds is clear, focusing on a "bottom-up" stock selection approach rather than a "top-down" industry selection [66]. - Active equity funds should prioritize fund managers' stock-picking abilities and avoid products that significantly deviate from performance benchmarks [69]. - The report provides specific recommendations for ETF fund allocations in sectors with overseas advantages, such as non-ferrous metals, lithium batteries, telecommunications, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [71][73]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the current valuation levels of major indices are at historical highs, suggesting that many industry theme indices are overvalued despite potential future earnings growth [19][23]. - The report notes that the technology sector has shown strong revenue and profit growth, particularly in the context of the new economy driven by "new industries, new formats, and new businesses" [29][33]. - The report highlights that the "going abroad" strategy has become a necessary option for companies, with those possessing strong technological advantages and global supply chain capabilities expected to thrive [54][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the securities industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is a significant event, marking the emergence of another trillion-yuan brokerage firm in the industry [1][2]. - The merger is part of a broader trend supported by government policies aimed at strengthening leading securities firms to enhance China's capital market competitiveness [4][5]. - The combined total assets of the new entity are projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, positioning it as the fourth-largest securities company in A-shares, following CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On November 19, 2025, CICC announced plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share exchange, leading to a temporary suspension of trading for the involved A-shares starting November 20, 2025 [2][3]. Industry Context - Recent policies have emphasized the need for top securities firms to consolidate and strengthen their positions, with the goal of creating 2 to 3 internationally competitive investment banks by 2035 [4]. - The merger is expected to reduce competition among firms under the Central Huijin umbrella and optimize resource allocation, enhancing scale and synergy effects [5][6]. Strategic Implications - The merger is anticipated to leverage CICC's strengths in high-end investment banking and international services, combined with Dongxing and Xinda's regional retail networks and asset management capabilities [5]. - The report suggests that the trend of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry will continue, particularly among firms with shared capital structures or those seeking to expand market share [6]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends monitoring the market performance of the newly formed company and other securities firms with potential merger expectations, maintaining the "Market Weight" rating for the industry [7].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74, up by 0.18% with an increase of 6.93 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index remained flat at 13080.09, with a change of -0.40 points [2] - The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.44%, closing at 4588.29, an increase of 20.10 points [2] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.25%, closing at 3076.85, with an increase of 7.63 points [2] - The STAR 50 Index decreased by 0.97%, closing at 1344.80, down by 13.13 points [2] - The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.40%, closing at 1461.12, a decrease of 20.70 points [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Nonferrous Metals (up 2.39%), Oil & Petrochemicals (up 1.67%), and National Defense & Military (up 1.11%) [3] - The worst-performing sectors were Real Estate (down 2.09%), Media (down 1.72%), and Building Materials (down 1.71%) [3] - Concept sectors showing strong performance included Shipbuilding System (up 4.60%) and Lead Metal (up 2.03%) [3] - Underperforming concept sectors included Hainan Free Trade Zone (down 4.52%) and Childcare Services (down 2.82%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to stabilize around the 4000-point mark [5] - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for investment, focusing on high-dividend sectors for defensive positioning and selectively investing in technology sectors for growth opportunities [5] - The report highlights the importance of embracing free trade and reducing barriers as emphasized by the State Council during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting [4]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3972.03, down by 0.46% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.00, down by 0.11%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.65% to 4598.05 [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index also saw declines of 0.20% and 0.53%, respectively [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Computer (1.67%), Defense and Military Industry (1.59%), Coal (1.32%), Communication (1.10%), and Real Estate (1.00%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Pharmaceutical Biology (-1.73%), Banking (-1.31%), Non-Bank Financials (-1.11%), Building Materials (-0.93%), and Home Appliances (-0.84%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were related to Military Equipment Restructuring (4.72%), MLOps (3.42%), Web3.0 (3.10%), Digital Watermarking (2.71%), and Electronic ID (2.68%) [3] - The lagging concept indices included Cell Immunotherapy (-1.87%), Weight Loss Drugs (-1.87%), Innovative Drugs (-1.72%), Recombinant Proteins (-1.71%), and Fentanyl (-1.68%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking, but a gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals is anticipated in the fourth quarter, supported by policy measures [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as Banking, Non-Bank Financials, Transportation, Public Utilities, Coal, and TMT for potential investment opportunities [5] Water Conservation Industry - The water conservation industry in China is showing robust growth, with an estimated market size exceeding 760 billion yuan, driven by key regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [4][5] - The development of water-saving industrial parks and leading enterprises in agriculture, industry, and urban life is contributing to this growth [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasting 43 days, market liquidity has improved, leading to a rebound in equity markets, with MSCI Emerging Markets up 0.29% and MSCI Developed Markets up 0.43% [10][11] - Commodity ETFs performed exceptionally well, with an average weekly increase of 2.95%, reflecting strong price movements in precious metals and oil [10][11] - The report notes a net inflow of 29.597 billion yuan into ETFs this week, with all types of ETFs experiencing varying degrees of inflow except for bond ETFs, which saw a slight outflow [11][12] Group 2 - The report indicates that the stock ETF indices with the highest returns are primarily in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and chemical sectors, while the technology growth sector has shown caution due to concerns over AI bubble narratives [16][18] - The report mentions that the bond ETF market is seeing a preference for interest rate bonds over credit bonds, with convertible bond ETFs showing an average weekly increase of 0.44% [20][21] - The report emphasizes that the high dividend yield of 5.5% for Hong Kong stocks, compared to a 3.69 percentage point spread over the 10-year government bond yield, makes them attractive to investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest environment [23]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, closing at 3990.49, down 0.97% [1][2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw significant declines, with the former down 1.93% and the latter down 2.82% [2][4] Sector Performance - Among the top-performing sectors, the comprehensive sector increased by 1.58%, followed by real estate at 0.39% and banking at 0.26% [3] - Conversely, the electronic sector saw a decline of 3.09%, with communication and media sectors also performing poorly, down 2.46% and 2.16% respectively [3] Economic Indicators - In October, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, while retail sales totaled 46,291 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.9% increase [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to October reached 408,914 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.7% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down 14.7% [5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing challenges, with a potential for a new round of sideways adjustments due to a lack of favorable news [6] - The report suggests maintaining a "barbell strategy" in investment, focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors while also exploring growth opportunities in AI-related infrastructure and applications [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed (2.45%) [12]. - Over 90% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating strong overall market performance [13]. - The industry valuation has rebounded, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio at approximately 2.94 times as of November 13, 2025, which is still relatively low compared to historical levels [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance and controllability of seed technology during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed sources and innovation in the seed industry [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from industry trends and potential recovery in profitability [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [1][32]. Core Insights - Domestic technology giants are actively investing in supernode technology, presenting investment opportunities in domestic AI computing power [1][28]. - The SW computer sector has seen a cumulative decline of 2.64% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries [10][13]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently at 55.36 times, placing it in the 88.40th percentile for the past five years and the 77.89th percentile for the past ten years [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW computer sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 2.64% from October 31 to November 13, 2025, and a decline of 3.73% in November, while it has increased by 20.45% year-to-date [10][13][28]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of November 13, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 55.36 times, indicating a high valuation relative to historical performance [20][22]. 3. Industry News - Key developments include the launch of the Kimi K2 Thinking model by Moonlight, the introduction of the world's first single-cabinet 640-card supernode by Inspur, and significant investments in AI infrastructure by companies like Tencent and Anthropic [21][23][28]. 4. Company Announcements - Recent announcements include equity transfer agreements and the establishment of joint ventures aimed at enhancing business strategies and market positions [24][25][26][27]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report highlights the launch of the scaleX640 supernode by Inspur, which significantly enhances computing power and efficiency, and emphasizes the importance of collaborative efforts in the AI computing ecosystem [28][29].

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 14 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固 从本周市场来看： 首先，10 月信贷社融增速收敛，企业信贷增速放缓、居民融资 意愿承压。 其次，10 月份经济运行基本平稳，稳中有进态势持续。 最后，政策将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资 条件相对宽松。 总体来看，本周沪指在 4000 点附近震荡整理。10 月信贷社融 增速放缓，企业信贷增长减弱，居民融资意愿仍偏低。10 月经济运 行总体平稳，延续稳中有进态势，但也面临外部环境不确定、内部 结构调整等挑战，经济平稳运行存在压力。不过随着扩内需、稳就 业、稳预期等政策持续发力并落地见效，经济有望实现质的有效提 升与量的合理增长。货币政策方面，在全年 5%左右增速目标预计可 达的背景下，货币政策短期加码的紧迫性降低，重点转向既有政策 的落实与跨周期工具储备。货币宽松方向不变，降准、降息仍可期， 节奏上更侧重"相机抉择"。后续需关注 12 月上中旬政治局会议和 中央经济工作会议的政策定调，以及美联储动向与"十五五"规划 衔接对政策的影响。从技术面来看，当前沪指在 4000 点附近震荡 整理，资金分歧有所加大， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry has experienced a decline of 1.75% in the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.58 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 industries [2][13]. - Year-to-date, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 33.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.65 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [13][27]. - The report highlights the ongoing technological innovations leading to industry upgrades, particularly in the electrification and dexterous hand segments of engineering machinery [4][46]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the mechanical equipment sector has seen a 1.75% decline in the last two weeks, with the general equipment sector showing the highest increase of 0.40% among its sub-sectors [2][21]. - The top three performing stocks in the mechanical equipment sector over the past two weeks are Huafeng Co., World Co., and Jikai Co., with increases of 46.59%, 40.02%, and 36.22% respectively [20][22]. Valuation - The current PE TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 31.51 times, with sub-sectors showing varied valuations: General Equipment at 43.79 times, Specialized Equipment at 31.81 times, and Automation Equipment at 49.06 times [3][25]. Industry News - The report notes that the demand for engineering machinery is expected to be supported by the commencement of major national projects and accelerated funding [5][46]. - Exports of engineering machinery products have shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 29.78% in September [5][46]. Company Announcements - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huichuan Technology and Green Harmonic, which are positioned well in the market due to their strong competitive advantages and growth potential [44][47].