策略报告 | 投资策略 王澄睿 联系人 wangchengrui@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《投资策略：投资策略-平稳的十一》 2025-10-08 2 《投资策略：投资策略-A 股动静框架 之静态指标》 2025-10-08 3 《投资策略：十一大事与大类资产梳 理 -政 策 与 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 观 察 》 2025-10-07 2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者 吴开达 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524030001 wukaida@tfzq.com 孙希民 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524110002 sunximin@tfzq.com 黄金牛与黄金股的关系 策略专题 证券研究报告 核心结论：复盘上一轮黄金牛市，黄金股最具弹性区间往往发生在黄金价格 中枢上移趋势的进一步确认之后。本轮黄金大周期的黄金股最具弹性区间刚 刚启动。观察本轮黄金牛市，万得黄金行业指数与金价波动基本一致，且在 2024 年之前并未展现出较高的弹性。除了时间维度的启动，空间上，本轮 黄金股拉升幅度与区间长度远小于上一轮黄金牛市，也远小于费城金银指数 的弹性区间。复盘本轮金价上涨导致的黄 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 利率专题 证券研究报告 国债新老券利差如何演绎？ 愈发难以博弈的国债新老券利差 理论上讲，新老券利差应为正值，且在上市初期、切券之后两个时间段出 现利差走阔，切券后一段时间利差达到峰值，随后回落至趋向于零。实际 来看规律逐渐"失效"。具体来看 10Y 和 30Y 国债的新老券利差表现： 1）上市与切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度统计 平均来看，10Y（30Y）国债在上市后的 13（11）个交易日达到第一个利差 峰值，新老券利差最大走阔 1.85BP(1.27BP)；在上市后的 22(30)个交易日成 为活跃券，切券后 44(58)个交易日达到第二个利差峰值，新老券利差最大 走阔 3.07BP(4.31BP)。 不过，从最近的切券经验来看，对于有潜力成为活跃券的新券，市场会快 速参与并加快切券节奏，新老券利差的策略空间被压缩。例如，10Y 国债 250011 上市次日即完成切券，切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 0.45BP。30Y 特别国债 2500002 在上市的 8 个交易日后也顺利成为活跃券。 切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 2.95BP，也处于历史中等偏低水平。 新老 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.2 billion in Q2 2025, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 120 million, down 16% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.4 billion, a decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 240 million, down 8% [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.82%, showing a slight increase of 0.41% [1] - The overseas market revenue reached 1.81 billion, accounting for 75.9% of total revenue, indicating strong international performance despite a complex environment [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.4 billion, with a net profit of 240 million, reflecting a decrease of 8% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 26.82%, supported by internal cost improvements and technological innovations [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 500 million, 560 million, and 630 million respectively [4] International Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand, which is expected to cover over 60% of North American orders [2] - The overseas market strategy includes strengthening existing markets and exploring new opportunities in Europe and the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2] - The company’s cross-border e-commerce business saw a revenue increase of 82.8% year-on-year, indicating successful channel expansion [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on smart manufacturing upgrades and product innovation to enhance competitiveness [3] - The product categories such as water purifiers and smart home applications are gaining market traction, contributing to sustainable growth [3] - The company has established strong partnerships with major retailers like Lowe's and The Home Depot, leading to a 45.7% increase in channel revenue [3]

公司报告 | 半年报点评 西大门（605155） 证券研究报告 募投产能逐步释放加强客户响应 公司发布半年报 25Q2 营收 2.3 亿，同增 15%，归母净利 0.3 亿同增 3%，扣非后归母净 利 0.3 亿，同减 4%。 凭借自主掌握的核心技术和工艺实现能力，针对不同地域、不同层次客户 的需求特点，开发出丰富的产品系列，先后研制推出四大类、百余种系列、 千余种产品，是行业内产品品类、规格最为齐全的生产厂商之一。 拥有丰富齐全的产品种类和出色的产品定制化能力，使得公司能够快速满 足客户多样化的产品需求，为客户提供一站式的采购服务。公司始终坚持 特色化的产品路线和差异化竞争策略，通过研发并生产高性价比产品，并 针对不同市场、不同客户定制配套的销售政策，使得产品具有较强的市场 竞争优势。 构建"线下线上联动、国内海外分策"营销战略体系 针对海外市场，公司全力拓展跨境电商业务，依托亚马逊、独立站等线上 平台触达全球客户；与中国邮政达成战略合作后，进一步加速品牌出海进 程，同时在美国、澳洲等地部署海外仓，通过强化仓储能力提升物流效率、 缩短交货周期，并提供定制化解决方案，为海外客户打造便捷高效的服务 体验。 目前 ...

Group 1: Macro Overview - In Q3 2025, major asset classes showed strong performance, with the Asia-Pacific stock indices generally strong, and A-shares quickly breaking through 3800 points before experiencing high-level fluctuations [2][19] - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with PPI showing a year-on-year decline and three major economic indicators falling for two consecutive months [19] - The liquidity situation improved in Q3, with M1 continuing to rise since March, and the M1-M2 gap narrowing for four consecutive months [19] Group 2: Credit Market Insights - In Q3, the credit market exhibited structural resilience, with certain credit varieties experiencing significant declines, particularly long-end bonds, which saw yields rise by over 30 basis points [3][22] - The behavior of institutional investors shifted, with an increase in the proportion of credit bonds in net purchases, indicating a gradual realization of the value of credit coupons [22] - Looking ahead to Q4 and 2026, the credit market may see a revaluation of credit assets, especially if new regulations on public fund sales are implemented [3][22] Group 3: Construction Materials Sector - During the holiday period from September 29 to October 7, the Hong Kong construction materials index rose by 2.55%, with glass products performing the best [4] - The current valuation of glass products is below the 50th percentile of the past three years, while cement companies are performing better, indicating potential for growth in undervalued segments [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan to stabilize growth in the construction materials industry, which aims to address structural issues and improve competition [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Performance - Hengdian East Magnetic achieved a revenue of 11.936 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, with a significant growth in its photovoltaic business [7] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan in H1 2025, driven by volume growth despite pressure on pricing [24][26] - Songlin Technology's revenue in H1 2025 was 1.1 billion yuan from its health and smart kitchen businesses, as it officially entered the robotics field [31][32]

Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In Q3 2025, A-shares quickly broke through 3800 points, followed by high-level fluctuations, while bond rates continued to rise and commodities experienced a pullback [1][9] - The A-share market saw broad index gains, with the ChiNext Index leading, and growth and cyclical styles outperforming [1][13] - The bond market experienced a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a high of 1.9022% [1][26] - Commodity performance was mixed, with gold and silver prices rising significantly, while the Nanhua Industrial Product Index peaked in July and then declined [1][29] Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The fundamental outlook for the A-share market remained weak in Q3, with PPI showing signs of recovery but key economic indicators declining for two consecutive months [2] - Macro liquidity improved in Q3, with M1 continuing to rise since March and the M1-M2 spread narrowing for four months [2] - Micro-funding activities saw increased activity from southbound funds, a significant rebound in margin financing, and record high ETF trading volumes [2][14] - The manufacturing sector's "anti-involution" trend boosted cyclical stocks, while the AI computing power theme gained traction [2][14] Group 3: Overseas Market Trends - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve began to rise in August, culminating in a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - The U.S. economy showed resilience with cooling inflation, but political pressures could widen credit risks for the dollar [3]

公司报告 | 半年报点评 五粮液（000858） 证券研究报告 Q2 收入端表现稳健，费投加大利润季度承压 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 527.71/194.92 亿元（同比 +4.19%/+2.28%）对应 2025Q2：2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 158.31/46.32 亿元（同比+0.10%/-7.58%）。 渠道端：25H1 经销/直销 渠道收 入分别 279.25/211.95 亿元（同比 +1.20%/+8.60%），毛利率分别 78.70%/86.80%（同比-1.00/+0.13pct），其中 直销占比提升 1.72pct 至 43.15%。五粮液经销商数量 2510 家，同比减少 20 家，单商规模+5.41%；其他酒经销商数量 1077 家，同比增加 127 家， 单商规模-9.38%。25H1 公司前五大客户销售收入合计 300.61 亿元（同比 +180.58%），占销售收入总额的 56.96%（同比+35.84pcts）。 量增驱动酒类业务增长，吨价阶段承压。 费投加大利润短期承压，业绩蓄水池仍较充足。 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 泸州老窖（000568） 证券研究报告 25H1 业绩平稳，期待低度新品打造新增长极 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 营收 164.54 亿元，同比-2.67%；归母净利润 76.63 亿元，同比-4.54%； 2025Q2 营收 71.02 亿元，同比-7.97%；归母净利润 30.70 亿元，同比-11.10%； 营收+Δ合同负债 75.71 亿元，同比+0.63%。 25H1 特曲持续增长稳住营收基本盘，下半年 28°国窖或推出贡献增量。 25H1 酒类 收入 163.97 亿 元 （同 比-2.62%）， 销 量/ 吨 价 分别 同比 +2.09%/-4.62%，具体看： ① 产品端，中高档酒 / 其他酒收入 150.48/13.50 亿元（同比 -1.09%/-16.96% ）。 量 价 角 度 ， 中 高 档 酒 类 销 量 / 吨价分别同比 +13.33%/-12.72%，其他酒类销量/吨价分别-6.89%/-10.82%。25H2 公司或推 出 28°国窖新品，低度新品有望成为新增长极，此外，公司拟推出"二曲" 新品巩固大众价位布局。 ② 渠道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company is entering the robotics field, focusing on both organic growth and external expansion [2] - The robotics business includes care service robots, logistics service robots, AI companion robots, and humanoid robots, aiming to create a product system with application value [2][3] - The company has made significant technological advancements in motion control, scene voice interaction, and emotional experience for its robots [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 600 million, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million, down 57% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.1 billion, a decrease of 21%, and a net profit of 90 million, down 58% [1] - The overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 was 880 million, down 16.78%, while domestic revenue was 260 million, down 33.54% [1] Business Development - The company is leveraging its subsidiary, Songlin Robotics Technology Co., Ltd., to develop a comprehensive robotics product system [2] - The focus is on enhancing the R&D team and utilizing existing technology in AI smart hardware and software algorithms for product development [2] - The company is also exploring acquisition opportunities and collaborating with outstanding enterprises and professional teams in the industry [2] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 350 million, 410 million, and 470 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39X, 32X, and 29X [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - During the holiday period (September 29 - October 7), the Hong Kong building materials index rose by 2.55%, with glass products performing the best, including China Glass (+13.21%) and Xinyi Glass (+5.76%). Cement stocks followed, with China National Building Material (+4.55%) and West China Cement (+4.14%). Consumer building materials were relatively weak, with China Liansu down by 2.08% [2][12] - The current valuation percentiles indicate that glass products are below the 50th percentile of the past three years, while cement is above glass. Key companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement are around the 80th percentile, suggesting that the recent rise is mainly due to the greater elasticity of undervalued glass products [2][12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly released the "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which addresses the weak market demand and structural issues in the building materials industry, outlining key goals and initiatives for 2025-2026. The plan is expected to accelerate capacity reduction and improve the competitive landscape of the industry [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the two trading days before the holiday (September 29-30), the CSI 300 index rose by 1.99%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) increased by 1.57%. Notable individual stock performances included Shengfeng Cement (+14.8%) and Wanli Stone (+12.2%) [10][12] Recommended Stocks - The recommended stocks for the week include West China Cement, China National Building Material, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings. The report suggests that the traditional building materials industry is nearing a cyclical bottom, with potential growth in new materials due to high demand in downstream sectors [3][16]