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天风证券晨会集萃-20250828
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-28 00:11
Group 1: AI Industry Insights - The report highlights the release of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan by the State Council, which aims to strengthen foundational support capabilities in AI, including innovation in AI chips and software ecosystem development [3] - The action plan is expected to provide long-term institutional guarantees for the development of the AI industry, addressing current bottlenecks such as insufficient computing power and low-quality data supply [3] - Companies to watch include those involved in AI technology and applications, such as Kingdee International, Meituan, and various players in AI education and healthcare [3] Group 2: Economic and Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a unified market to break local protectionism and promote efficient resource allocation [4] - The plan also aims to support consumer spending and upgrade consumption structures, indicating a shift in fiscal spending towards improving livelihoods [4] - The capital market reform during this period is expected to transition from policy-driven to institution-driven, promoting high-quality development of the capital market [4] Group 3: Aerospace Industry Developments - China's commercial aircraft market share exceeds 20%, with the C919 aircraft production capacity expanding, potentially breaking the Airbus and Boeing duopoly [4] - The demand for commercial engines in China is projected to exceed $600 billion over the next 20 years, with an average annual demand of over 200 billion RMB [4] - The report indicates that the domestic aerospace industry is likely to experience significant growth due to the focus on local market development and self-sufficiency [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Sector Performance - Changdian Technology reported a revenue of 18.605 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.14%, driven by increased domestic orders and market demand recovery [8][34] - The company's net profit decreased by 23.98% due to ongoing construction of new factories and rising financial costs, but gross margin improved from 12.6% to 14.3% [34][38] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with global sales expected to continue growing, providing opportunities for companies in this sector [36] Group 5: Consumer Electronics and Home Appliances - Wanhe Electric reported a revenue of 4.08 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with overseas revenue growing by 26.5% while domestic revenue declined by 4.4% [16] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and cost optimization to enhance its competitiveness in both domestic and international markets [16] - The report anticipates steady growth in the home appliance sector, driven by innovations and expansion into overseas markets [16] Group 6: Automotive and New Energy Sectors - Tuhu-W reported a revenue of 7.877 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.54%, driven by expansion into lower-tier cities [17] - The company is enhancing its supply chain and logistics efficiency, which has positively impacted its operational performance [17] - The new energy vehicle segment is emerging as a significant growth driver, with a notable increase in transaction users on the platform [17]
安培龙(301413):汽车传感国产替代顺利,积极推进人形力传感器业务
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 14:46
公司报告 | 半年报点评 安培龙(301413) 证券研究报告 汽车传感国产替代顺利,积极推进人形力传感器业务 公司近期发布 2025 年中报,核心数据如下: 公司目前主要收入来自压力、热敏&温度传感器。25H1 经营情况如下:1) 压力:收入 2.9 亿元,yoy+62%,毛利率 27.4%,yoy-2.2pct;2)热敏电阻 和温度传感器:收入 2.5 亿元,yoy+13%,毛利率 28.9%,yoy-2.9pct。 公司 25H1 利润增速慢于收入主要系: 公司积极推进人形机器人力传感器发展。具体措施包括不限于扩建专门团 队(在子公司上海安培龙组建了机器人力传感器专项研发团队)、试验线搭 建(在上海搭建试验线,针对性配置六维力矩、扭矩、拉压力传感器等生 产调试、性能检测及可靠性实验等专业设备)。客户端,公司已完成给多 家国内机器人及关节模组厂商力传感器技术交流及送样工作。 盈利预测:我们下调公司 25 年归母净利润至 1.1 亿元(上次预期 1.8 亿元), 下调原因为研发费用投入预计增加(发展新业务如机器人、IC 设计等), 预计 26、27 年实现归母净利润 1.4、1.8 亿元,考虑公司在汽车传感 ...
长电科技(600584):营收稳健增长,汽车电子与高端封装驱动长期成长
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 13:54
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 18.605 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.14%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 23.98% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-growth, high-value-added application markets, particularly in automotive electronics and high-end packaging, which are expected to drive long-term growth [2]. - The global semiconductor sales reached 346 billion USD in the first half of 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend in the industry, which is expected to provide continuous growth opportunities for the packaging and testing industry [3]. - The company is advancing lean manufacturing and digitalization to enhance production efficiency and quality control, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 18.605 billion yuan, a 20.14% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 471 million yuan, down 23.98% [1]. - The gross margin improved from 12.6% in Q1 2025 to 14.3% in Q2 2025, reflecting a positive trend in operational efficiency [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically focusing on high-performance packaging technologies for high-value applications, including automotive electronics, high-performance computing, storage, and 5G communications [2]. - The automotive semiconductor packaging business saw a revenue increase of 34.2% year-on-year, while the industrial and medical sectors grew by 38.6% [2]. Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with a global sales increase of 18.9% in the first half of 2025, which is expected to benefit the packaging and testing sector [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its technological research and development to align with industry trends [3]. Operational Improvements - The company is implementing lean manufacturing principles and digitalization to optimize production processes and improve cost management [4]. - It has completed 25 national and provincial project applications to promote the recognition of its intelligent factory [4].
“人工智能+”行动的意见发布,政策驱动AI产业进入加速周期
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 13:27
海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 人工智能 证券研究报告 "人工智能+"行动的意见发布,政策驱动 AI 产业进 入加速周期 事件:国务院于 8 月 26 日印发《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》 (下文简称"《意见》")。意见提出科学技术、产业发展、消费提质、民 生福祉、治理能力与全球合作六大重点行动。在此基础上,《意见》进一步 提出涵盖模型、数据、算力、应用环境、开源生态、人才体系、政策法规 与安全治理的"八大强化基础支撑能力"。 明确可量化目标与阶段时间线,中国 AI 渗透率有望提升。《意见》提出到 2027 年率先实现人工智能与六大重点领域的广泛深度融合,新一代智能终 端、智能体等应用普及率超过 70%;到 2030 年普及率超过 90%、智能经济 成为重要增长极;到 2035 年全面步入智能经济与智能社会新阶段。我们认 为,《意见》通过设定可量化目标和阶段性时间线,有望强化政策执行的确 定性与产业落地的可预期性。当下 AI 整体普及率与渗透率仍处于相对较低 水平,产业空间依然广阔。我们认为,随着政策逐步落地,叠加模型能力 持续迭代、AI 成本进一步下降,中国 AI 渗透率有望加速提升。 《意见》提 ...
拓邦股份(002139):营收持续增长,智能汽车及机器人业务良好发展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 11:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.502 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.70%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, a decrease of 15.11% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing steady growth in its tools and home appliances business, with a revenue of 2.079 billion yuan in the tools segment, up 5.67% year-on-year, and 2.298 billion yuan in the home appliances segment, up 27.60% year-on-year [2] - The smart automotive and robotics businesses are showing strong development, with the smart automotive segment achieving a revenue of 260 million yuan, a remarkable growth of 86.03% year-on-year, and the robotics segment generating 277 million yuan, up 22.72% year-on-year [3] - The digital energy business is under short-term pressure, with a revenue of 588 million yuan, down 33.30% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory destocking [3] - The company is expected to maintain long-term growth driven by the trend of increasing intelligence, organizational optimization, and cost reduction measures, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 803 million, 1.003 billion, and 1.207 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.55%, down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The tools and home appliances segment had a gross margin of 22.22%, down 1.98 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The smart automotive and digital energy segments had a gross margin of 22.77%, up 1.09 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segments - The tools segment is growing steadily, with successful collaborations with major Japanese and domestic clients contributing to revenue growth [2] - The home appliances segment is transitioning towards providing intelligent and scenario-based solutions, enhancing customer stickiness and achieving rapid growth in core categories [2] - The smart automotive segment is focusing on electric and advanced driving technologies, with significant revenue growth driven by laser radar motors and charging stations [3] - The robotics segment is expanding from component business to complete machine categories, with a diverse product system including cooking machines and service robots [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to accelerate profit growth with new product launches and increased market expansion, despite short-term challenges in the digital energy sector [4]
哔哩哔哩(BILI):利润端超预期,游戏和广告业务增长强劲
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 11:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for Q2 2025, which is in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Adjusted net profit reached 560 million yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 8.1% [1]. - The user metrics show a Daily Active Users (DAU) of 109 million and Monthly Active Users (MAU) of 363 million, with a daily average usage time of 105 minutes [1]. - The company is benefiting from a strong performance in its gaming and advertising segments, with significant growth in user engagement and creator monetization [1][2][3]. Revenue Breakdown 1) **Mobile Games**: - Revenue for the quarter was 1.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%, driven by strong performance from "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" and stable contributions from "Fate/Grand Order" and "Azur Lane" [2]. - The company is also focusing on new game releases and overseas expansion for existing titles [2]. 2) **Advertising**: - Revenue reached 2.45 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, primarily due to strong growth in performance advertising [3]. - The company has improved its advertising infrastructure, leading to a more than 10% increase in eCPM and approximately 30% growth in performance ad revenue [3]. 3) **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: - Revenue was 2.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, supported by growth in live streaming and other value-added services [3]. - The number of paid members reached 23.7 million, with over 80% opting for annual or auto-renewal plans [3]. 4) **IP and Derivatives**: - Revenue was 440 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15% [3]. Profitability - The gross profit was 2.68 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6 percentage points. The adjusted net profit of 560 million yuan indicates a turnaround from previous losses [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from its strategy of "self-developed quality products and global distribution," with projected revenues for 2025-2027 of 30.1 billion, 32.6 billion, and 35.6 billion yuan respectively [4].
恒力石化(600346):中期分红提升回报,反内卷助力相对底部反转
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 11:26
公司报告 | 半年报点评 恒力石化(600346) 证券研究报告 中期分红提升回报,反内卷助力相对底部反转 2025 年 H1 公司实现归母净利润 30.5 亿,同比-24.08% 2025 年 H1,公司实现营业收入 1038.87 亿元,同比-7.69%;实现归母净利 润 30.5 亿,同比-24.08%,扣非归母净利润 22.96 亿元,同比-35.16%。其 中,Q2 公司实现归母净利润 9.99 亿,扣非净利润 10.57 亿,环比-14.7%。 重视投资者回报,近年来首次增加中期分红 基于充裕的现金流与良好的盈利状况,公司已积极推出 2025 年半年度利润 分配方案(该方案尚需股东会审议通过后实施),计划每股派发现金红利 0.08 元(含税),合计派现 5.63 亿元(含税),占 2025 年半年度归属于上 市公司股东净利润的 18.46%,公司以切实举措回报股东,进一步增强市场 信心。 反内卷有望助力石化周期反转 2024 年 7 月,中央政治局会议首次提出"要强化行业自律,防止'内卷式' 恶性竞争"。同年 12 月,中央经济工作会议在部署 2025 年重点任务时再 次强调要"综合整治'内卷式' ...
2025年7月中债登和上清所托管数据
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 10:11
Core Insights - The report indicates that commercial banks are increasing their allocation to interest rate bonds, while broad-based funds are reducing their holdings in government bonds and policy financial bonds [4][5][51]. Group 1: Interbank Leverage Ratio - As of the end of July, the interbank market leverage ratio was 106.81%, down from 107.64% at the end of the previous month, indicating a decrease of 0.83 percentage points and remaining below historical levels for the same period [2][11]. Group 2: Custody Data Overview - In July 2025, the total custody scale of bonds at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House reached 173.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.49 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14]. Group 3: By Bond Type - The total custody scale of major interest rate bonds (government bonds, local government bonds, policy bank bonds) reached 114.81 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 143.74 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 154.99 billion yuan, while broad-based funds, securities companies, and foreign institutions reduced their holdings [4][51]. - The custody scale of major credit bonds (corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and ultra-short-term financing bonds) was 16.04 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 20.07 billion yuan. Broad-based funds and commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 116.8 billion yuan and 71.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][30][51]. - The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 20.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 37.43 billion yuan, with commercial banks and foreign institutions being the main sellers [4][47][51]. Group 4: By Institution - The custody scale of commercial banks reached 84.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 137.58 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds by 154.99 billion yuan and 7.17 billion yuan, respectively, while reducing their holdings in interbank certificates of deposit by 24.58 billion yuan [5][52]. - The custody scale of broad-based funds was 37.55 trillion yuan, decreasing by 83.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in credit bonds by 116.8 billion yuan but reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit by 117.9 billion yuan and 2.26 billion yuan, respectively [5][52]. - Foreign institutions had a custody scale of 3.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 301.6 billion yuan, with reductions in interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 129 billion yuan, 167.3 billion yuan, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively [5][57].
芒果超媒(300413):25H1点评:会员与广告环比回暖,关注下半年政策红利释放
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 09:51
公司报告 | 半年报点评 芒果超媒(300413) 证券研究报告 25H1 点评:会员与广告环比回暖,关注下半年政策红利释放 事件:北京时间 2025 年 8 月 22 日,芒果超媒发布 2025 年上半年业绩公告。2025 年上半 年公司实现营业总收入 59.64 亿元,同比减少 14.31%;实现归母净利润 7.63 亿元,同比 减少 28.31%,主要系内容与研发投入加大导致互联网视频业务成本上升;扣非归母净利润 6.10 亿元,同比下降 33.15%。 内容主业:会员与广告业务环比回暖,剧集市占率大幅提升。1)会员业务:2025 年上半年, 公司会员业务实现营业收入 24.96 亿元,同比小幅增长,用户月活均值同比增 14.24%,人 均单日时长稳居行业前列。根据云合数据,上半年芒果 TV 影视剧有效播放量同比增长 69%, 保持快速上升势头。《国色芳华》创下芒果剧集在云合集均播放量首破 4000 万的佳绩,成为 开年现象级爆款剧;《五福临门》11 次登顶云合热播榜;《韶华若锦》播出期间芒果 TV 站内 热度剧类第一。公司储备有《水龙吟》《咸鱼飞升》《野狗骨头》等影视剧近百部。我们认为, 公司影视剧储 ...
盛业(06069):AI驱动业务升级成效显著,创新赛道布局持续深化
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-27 09:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21 HKD, representing a potential upside of over 20% from the current price of 13.04 HKD [3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant resilience in profitability, with a net profit of approximately 2.03 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [1]. - The shift towards a light asset model has resulted in a notable increase in platform technology service revenue, which reached about 2.11 billion HKD, marking a 37.0% year-on-year growth and surpassing 50% of total revenue for the first time [1]. - The company has successfully commercialized its AI applications, generating 400,000 HKD in revenue from AI-driven order matching services in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The total number of clients on the platform has exceeded 19,100, representing a 14.4% year-on-year growth, with a client retention rate exceeding 80% [2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships in the robotics sector, aiming to penetrate the 1.9 trillion HKD Chinese robotics market [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 4.05 billion HKD, down 7.1% year-on-year due to the transition to a light asset model [1]. - The projected revenue for FY2025 is adjusted to 4.99 billion HKD for digital financial solutions, 5.43 billion HKD for platform technology services, and 490 million HKD for supply chain asset sales [3]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its platform-based services in e-commerce, AI applications, and robotics, which are expected to drive future growth [3]. - The company has committed to maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of no less than 90% for the years 2024-2026, with total dividends expected to approach 9.5 billion HKD in 2025 [1]. Market Position - The company has increased its funding partners to 181, a 31.2% year-on-year growth, highlighting the effectiveness of its light asset operational model [2]. - The company has made significant strides in the e-commerce sector, with total loans exceeding 2.8 billion HKD, an increase of nearly 800% year-on-year [2].