Group 1 - The excess reserve ratio in November remained stable at 1.2%, while government deposits increased to a historical high of 6 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations by 492 billion yuan [2][16][20] - In December, the government deposit is expected to decrease by approximately 1.96 trillion yuan, marking a historical high decline, which will provide liquidity support [3][20][28] - The probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in January has significantly increased, with expectations of a potential release of about 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [8][65][67] Group 2 - In December, the broad fiscal deficit is anticipated to reach a historical high, with a significant decrease in net government debt repayments [3][20][28] - The monetary issuance in December is expected to increase by about 300 billion yuan, while the required reserve ratio may rise by approximately 150 billion yuan [3][20][28] - The average DR001 rate in December dropped to a new low for the year, reflecting a very loose monetary state despite slight fluctuations in DR007 [4][36][45] Group 3 - The liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with banks' net financing capabilities improving, as evidenced by a historical high in net financing from banks in December [4][37][40] - The anticipated increase in government deposits in January is expected to exert pressure on liquidity, with an expected rise of about 1.66 trillion yuan [8][67][68] - The overall liquidity situation is expected to remain manageable, with the central bank's policies likely to mitigate external pressures [10][45][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned investment company in the United States through its Thai subsidiary, with an investment of up to $36 million for a project in Pennsylvania that will produce 20,000 tons of pulp molded tableware annually [3][4]. - The company is responding to supply chain shifts and trade barriers by expanding its global footprint, particularly in Thailand and the U.S., to mitigate risks associated with trade policies and tariffs [4]. - The Thai base has shown promising financial performance, with revenue of 61.98 million yuan and a net profit margin of 23.2% in the first half of 2025, suggesting that the U.S. project could replicate this success [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.23 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant increase in net profit from 231 million yuan to 704 million yuan over the same period [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 302 million yuan in 2025, followed by a substantial recovery to 550 million yuan in 2026 and 704 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 82% and 28% respectively [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.26 yuan in 2023 to 6.89 yuan by 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [6]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pulp molded tableware industry, with a robust competitive edge derived from its advanced production capabilities and flexible manufacturing processes [5]. - The establishment of overseas production facilities is seen as a strategic move to enhance market share and adapt to changing global trade dynamics [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The copper industry is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with a shift in demand driven by electric vehicles and AI investments, leading to an expected increase in copper prices in 2026 [3][85] - The macroeconomic environment is improving with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may support copper prices [3][30] - Global copper supply is projected to turn into a shortage by 2026, influenced by reduced production forecasts from major mining companies [3][43][60] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long-term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound, indicating a tightening global copper supply-demand balance [3][85] - Approximately 200,000 tons of copper smelting capacity in China has been suspended due to extreme pressure on smelting profits, with current processing fees in negative territory [48][85] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate macroeconomic pressures, potentially boosting investment and consumption [3][30] - The U.S. economy is facing a mid-term election and a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which may lead to a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies [3][85] Inventory Trends - U.S. copper inventories are expected to continue accumulating due to tariff expectations, while domestic copper social inventories are on a downward trend [3][85] - Global copper inventories remain high, influenced by U.S. market conditions [3][85] Individual Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shengton, Cangge, Jincheng, and Northern Copper, with H-shares including China Nonferrous Mining and Minmetals [3][86]

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 电力设备与新能源 行业评级 强于大市（维持） 2026年1月6日 电池变革重要赛点，材料设备全新颠覆 ——固态电池深度研究报告 证券分析师： 邓伟 执业证书编号：S0210522050005 游宝来 执业证书编号：S0210523030002 研究助理： 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 李宜琛 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 发展固态电池已成为行业共识、全球竞争赛点：理论上能实现高比能、高安全性的固态电池体系，是全球公认的颠覆性 技术。减少液态电解质含量，提升固态电解质占比，逐步实现固态化，是行业发展共识。由此带来的对材料体系、装备 体系的颠覆，迫使全球企业、研究团队展开新一轮的创新竞争，避免在新技术方向上的掉队风险。2027年实现小批量生 产、工艺定型，基本上是国内外企业一致预期的重要时间节点。 Ø 材料端：固态电池颠覆材料环节，重视增量、升级、瓶颈环节。全固态电池颠覆现有体系，核心增量环节是硫化物/氧化 物/卤化物/聚合物固态电解质，其中降本、量产瓶颈在于硫化锂（成本高、工艺放大难）。此外，能量密度的提升依赖 高镍/富锂锰基正极、锂金属/硅碳负极的性能突 ...

Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal expansion in 2026 will shift focus from total scale to structural efficiency, emphasizing investment and consumption equally, with a tilt towards residents and livelihood保障[1] - The government is expected to remain the main entity for leveraging in 2026, with monetary policy aligning closely with fiscal efforts to maintain stable interest rates during periods of slower government leverage[2] - The focus of monetary policy will include reducing traditional capacity expansion credit, monitoring bank liability rates, and addressing long-term variables like debt and exchange rate risks[2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - Broad fiscal expansion is crucial for stabilizing investment, with a focus on new infrastructure and green projects to halt the decline in investment growth[3] - The 2026 target for new local government special bonds is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, significantly higher than other funding sources, making it a key tool for investment stabilization[3] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a focus on both goods and services, aiming to maximize the utility of limited fiscal resources[3] Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Risks - The government aims to address overcapacity and reduce corporate burdens by clearing debts and setting standards to eliminate outdated production capacity[4] - Trade structure adjustments are necessary to mitigate long-term export risks, with a push towards service exports and optimizing supply chain layouts[6] - Risks include potential underperformance of fiscal and monetary policies, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and a complex external environment[7]

证券研究报告|专题报告 有色金属 行业评级 强大于市 2026年1月5日 供给有约束需求有韧性，铝价中枢或上移 ——铝行业专题报告 证券分析师： 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 供需：供给有约束，需求有韧性。供给端国内面临产能天花板强约束，海外供应受制于能源供应瓶颈，需求端传统板块趋稳 ，新兴领域强劲，储能、机器人及智能制造等新兴领域对铝材的需求快速扩张，电解铝供需紧平衡格局加剧； Ø 宏观：美联储降息预期仍在，宏观经济压制减轻。美联储9月正式开启降息周期，美国26年面临中期选举和美联储主席人事 更替，关注宽货币+宽财政组合可能； Ø 库存：全球电解铝库存处于历史同期低位。截至2025年12月31日，全球电解铝库存145万吨； Ø 总结：紧平衡格局延续，铝价中枢或上移。短期，供需面对铝价底部有支撑，降息预期下预计铝价偏强；中长期，国内天花 板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡或致铝价中枢上移。 Ø 个股：关注天山、宏创、云铝、神火、华通、宏桥及中孚等标的。 Ø 风险提示：美联储降息不及 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to have a strong start in the new year, with a slight decline of 0.33% in the overall A-share market during the last week of December, influenced by the New Year holiday [3][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 500 saw slight increases, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index experienced declines. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed slight gains, whereas consumer and healthcare sectors faced losses [3][13] - Among the 31 Shenwan industries, oil and petrochemicals, defense and military, and media sectors led the gains, while electric equipment, food and beverage, and public utilities lagged [3][13] Group 2 - The stock-bond yield spread has decreased to 0.5%, indicating a divergence in market valuations, with the valuation dispersion index rising by 1.7% [21] - Market sentiment has improved, with the sentiment index increasing by 25.2% to 59.9, while the industry rotation strength has decreased to 40, indicating a potential warning level [22][28] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increased by 519 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with significant inflows into the defense, automotive, and home appliance sectors [34] Group 3 - Meta announced the acquisition of Manus, deepening its layout in AI applications, which highlights the strategic value of AI agents in the current market [44] - Upwind New Materials officially entered the humanoid robot sector with the launch of the "Qiyuan Q1," indicating a growing interest in personal robotics [45] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, accelerating the capitalization process in the commercial aerospace sector, which is expected to bring new investment opportunities [46] Group 4 - The report maintains a positive outlook for the market, suggesting that the spring rally may start early, supported by improving overseas liquidity, expectations of renminbi appreciation, and positive industrial trends [48] - It is recommended to focus on opportunities in domestic computing power, as well as in commercial aerospace and intelligent driving sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support [48]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent trend of domestic GPU companies in Hong Kong initiating capitalization, with Wallen Technology listing on January 2, 2023, and experiencing a closing price increase of 75.8% on its first day. Additionally, Tensowise has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and plans to list on January 8, while Kunlun Chip has submitted a listing application [3][4]. - Wallen Technology focuses on independent research and development, with over 1,500 global patent applications and 600 granted patents. Its GPU products cater to various applications, including cloud training and inference, with significant revenue growth in its intelligent computing solutions [6]. - Tensowise prioritizes the AI sector, with its inference series driving revenue growth. The company has seen a substantial increase in revenue from its inference products, which have become a significant part of its overall revenue [7]. Summary by Sections Wallen Technology - Wallen Technology has launched multiple GPU products, including BR106, BR166, and BR110, designed for various applications such as cloud training and edge inference. The company reported intelligent computing solutions revenue of 58.15 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48%, with a gross margin of 31.2% [6]. Tensowise - Tensowise has introduced three generations of its training series, with the Tianwei series designed for large-scale AI training. The company allocates 5% of its global offering proceeds to R&D for AI computing solutions, targeting industries with strong domestic substitution demand [7]. - The revenue from Tensowise's inference series has shown significant growth, with 87.02 million yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, accounting for 26.8% of total revenue, compared to 430,000 yuan in 2022 [7].

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for December 2025 was 111.56 billion, a decrease of 54% month-on-month. The main board financing scale was 56.12 billion, and the North Exchange financing scale was 6.04 billion. A total of 11 new stocks were issued, consistent with the previous month, including 5 from the main board, 2 from the North Exchange, and 2 from the ChiNext [4][5]. - As of the end of December, there were 56 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across various A-share boards, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 470.5 billion. The ChiNext accounted for 13% (7 companies), while the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board accounted for 20% and 16%, respectively. The main board's proposed fundraising accounted for 35% (164.6 billion) [11]. - The average offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of 5 to 10 billion for the main board, 1 to 2 billion for the ChiNext, and varied for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [12]. Group 2 - In December, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 1651, 555, and 506, respectively, with the main board increasing by 55% month-on-month [16]. - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the main board in December was 0.0069% and 0.0064%, down 62% and 63% month-on-month [17]. - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds in the 1-2 billion scale contributing +0.611% and those in the 2-3 billion scale contributing +0.487%. The annualized return was 2.247% [22]. Group 3 - In December 2025, a total of 3325 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 7.43 trillion. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, with 1250, followed by passive index funds with 816, and flexible allocation funds with 577 [24][26]. - The participation rate of various types of funds in new stock subscriptions was detailed, indicating a diverse engagement across fund categories [29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][30]. Core Insights - The new vehicle replacement subsidy policy has been implemented as expected, with continued support for mid-to-high-end vehicles [2][13]. - The expected year-on-year growth rate for new energy passenger vehicles in 2025 is approximately 18%, with a forecasted high single-digit growth rate for 2026 [4][15]. - The performance of leading new energy vehicle companies is showing significant differentiation, with brands like Leap Motor, Xpeng, and NIO performing well [5][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy policy includes changes such as a shift from fixed subsidies to price-linked subsidies, with scrapping subsidies set at 12% for electric vehicles and 10% for gasoline vehicles, with caps of 20,000 and 15,000 yuan respectively [3][13]. - The overall subsidy policy is expected to stabilize, with a gradual reduction in subsidies for vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan, while maintaining support for those above this price point [3][13]. Market Dynamics - In the narrow passenger vehicle market, the cumulative wholesale volume from January to November 2025 is approximately 26.726 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [4][15]. - The cumulative wholesale volume for new energy vehicles during the same period is about 13.742 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [4][15]. - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles is expected to reach approximately 54.1% in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percentage points [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong mid-to-high-end potential, such as Geely, Seres, JAC Motors, and NIO, as well as export brands with sustained high growth, including BYD, Leap Motor, and Great Wall Motors [6][20].