Group 1 - The report highlights the significance of the February 27 meeting of the Central Political Bureau, which discussed the draft outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Government Work Report," marking a critical transition from the "14th Five-Year" to the "15th Five-Year" period [1][7] - The meeting established the "15th Five-Year" period as a key phase for solidifying the foundation and comprehensively advancing the goal of achieving socialist modernization, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [1][9] - The report suggests that the macroeconomic environment's certainty will significantly increase, leading to the emergence of structural investment opportunities in various sectors [1][9] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year" strategy focuses on high-quality development rather than mere quantitative expansion, aiming for qualitative improvements and reasonable growth, particularly in areas related to "new productive forces" and "technological self-reliance" [1][8] - The report indicates that fiscal policy will likely see a notable increase in the fiscal deficit ratio and local government special bond quotas, with an emphasis on enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal spending [1][9] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, allowing for potential reductions in policy interest rates and structural tool rates to lower financing costs for the real economy, especially in technology innovation and green development [1][9] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with a focus on innovative supply-side measures to create demand, particularly in service consumption sectors [1][12] - It highlights the significance of technological innovation and the development of a unified national market, with policies favoring hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and biomanufacturing [1][13] - The report stresses the need for risk prevention and mitigation in key areas, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, while also promoting green transformation and improving public welfare [1][14] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors aligned with the "new productive forces," including advanced technologies such as nuclear fusion, artificial intelligence, and solid-state batteries, as well as indices reflecting national industrial development [1][17]

Group 1: Policy Direction - The Political Bureau meeting outlines the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing not only on current work but also on long-term planning, indicating a strategic approach by the central government[3] - The meeting connects the 2026 target tasks with the 2035 long-term goals, emphasizing stability in growth, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods while planning for future industrial upgrades and green transitions[3] Group 2: Economic Focus - The meeting reaffirms that "economic construction is the center," responding to market concerns and demonstrating a commitment to focused development amidst challenges of strong supply and weak demand[4] - "High-quality development" is emphasized, indicating a shift from merely pursuing speed to achieving effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth[4] Group 3: Macro Policy - This year's macro policy is more proactive and emphasizes coordination, continuing the positive tone of fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic operation within a reasonable range[5] - The focus on "strengthening coordination" suggests that future policy efforts will not be isolated but will work together to create a synergistic effect, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment while optimizing supply structure[5] Group 4: Demand and Supply - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, reflecting the strategic focus of current economic work, with an emphasis on boosting consumption and effective investment to solidify internal growth[5] - The policy aims to optimize supply, highlighting ongoing structural reforms, and emphasizes creating new demand through high-quality supply and technological innovation[5] Group 5: Governance and Effectiveness - Establishing a correct view of performance is crucial for promoting high-quality development, with a focus on respecting laws, practical implementation, and achieving tangible results[6] - The government is urged to strengthen its own construction and adhere to a people-centered development philosophy, ensuring that policies are grounded in national conditions and public sentiment[6] Group 6: Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with the policies not meeting expectations, and historical experiences may not apply in the current context[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in March, the overall A-share market is relatively flat, while small-cap and micro-cap styles show significant excess returns. The average absolute monthly return of the Tonghuashun All A (weighted) index in March over the past 10 years is 0.4%, which is relatively limited. However, small-cap and micro-cap styles outperform the large-cap style and the All A index respectively [7][8][10]. - In terms of industry performance, the report highlights that the agriculture, forestry, beauty, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to outperform, while steel, petrochemicals, and non-bank financials lag behind. The average monthly excess returns for these industries in March over the past 10 years show a clear distinction [7][8][13][15]. Group 2 - The report provides detailed data on the calendar effect for different styles and industries, indicating that small-cap stocks significantly outperform large-cap stocks, and micro-cap stocks outperform the All A index in March [10][11]. - The report includes specific numerical data showing that the average excess return for small-cap stocks in March is 6.5%, while for micro-cap stocks, it is notably higher, indicating strong performance in these segments [10][11]. - The report also presents a comparative analysis of industry indices, revealing that sectors such as agriculture, beauty, and pharmaceuticals have higher average monthly excess returns compared to sectors like steel and petrochemicals, which show negative returns [13][15].

策略点评 2026 年 2 月 27 日 聚力稳进共促"十五五"良好开局 事件： 中共中央政治局 2 月 27 日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代 表大会第四次会议审查的中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年 规划纲要草案稿和审议的《政府工作报告》稿。 主要政策解读： （1）在历史坐标中锚定发展方位。回顾"十四五"时期，在外部环境复杂多 变与国内疫情冲击的双重压力下，宏观经济大盘保持稳定，产业升级与科技 创新取得显著突破，为经济高质量发展奠定了坚实基础。会议明确"十五 五"是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，政策重心 将明确转向"巩固优势、破除瓶颈、补强弱项"，旨在通过顶层设计解决制 约中长期增长的结构性问题，为未来五年的经济社会发展提供清晰的战略指 引和根本遵循。 （2）"一个中心、五大支柱"构筑战略框架。会议强调以经济建设为中心， 稳中求进为总基调，以高质量发展为主题、改革创新为根本动力、民生需求 为根本目的、全面从严治党为根本保障，这"一个中心、五大支柱"为未来 五年发展划定了清晰的行动边界与核心抓手，通过统筹国内国际两个大局、 贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局，确保质 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a positive start after the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.6%, the CSI 1000 by 2.7%, the CSI 300 by 1.62%, and the Wind All A Index by 2.12% as of February 25 [1][8] - Historical data since 2010 shows a high probability of market optimism in the short term after the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and Wind All A Index having respective upward probabilities of 75%, 87.5%, 68.8%, and 81.3% over the first five trading days post-festival [1][8] - The report suggests that the post-Spring Festival market rally may be influenced by factors such as the concentration of investment project commencements and bank loan disbursements at the beginning of the year, along with a notable inflow of funds into the stock market after the festival [1][11] Group 2 - The investment strategy recommended in the report is to focus on growth stocks primarily represented by small and mid-cap indices, with the CSI 1000 index showing a favorable profit effect [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The high-end consumption market is stabilizing and recovering, with strong recovery momentum in the Greater China region [3][68] - Starting from the second half of 2025, major luxury goods groups in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) have seen significant improvement in sales growth, with LVMH and Richemont reporting positive growth for the first time in seven quarters [4][68] - The recovery of the Chinese market has become a key variable for the performance recovery of global luxury goods groups, with brands optimistic about the long-term potential of the Chinese market [4][68] Summary by Sections High-End Consumption Recovery - The high-end consumption data tracking system indicates a recovery in high-end consumer demand driven by wealth effects, with high-frequency indicators confirming this recovery [4][43] - Wealthy individuals' asset growth, duty-free shopping data from Hainan, Macau gaming data, and high-end hotel performance serve as indicators for high-end consumption trends [4][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end commercial real estate and luxury goods stocks, including China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (1209.HK), Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK), Swire Properties (1972.HK), and luxury brands such as Lao Pu Gold (6181.HK), Mao Ge Ping (1318.HK), and Xirui (2507.HK) [4][68] Hang Lung Properties Insights - In 2025, Hang Lung Properties' retail sales in mainland malls are expected to increase by 4% year-on-year, with significant acceleration in the second half of the year [12][17] - The company is optimizing tenant management to enhance mall content and experience, achieving record high foot traffic in mainland malls [18][22] Swire Properties Insights - Swire Properties' malls are expected to continue recovering in 2025, with notable performance from Shanghai's Xinyi Swire [32][40] - The report highlights that the retail sales growth of Swire Properties' malls has significantly accelerated in the second half of 2025, indicating strong recovery momentum in the high-end consumption market [32][40]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [4][69]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the post-holiday season is leading to a decline in pig prices, with prices dropping to 11.26 CNY/kg as of February 23, a decrease of 0.4 CNY/kg from February 13 [2][9]. - The report anticipates a continued weak trend in pig prices due to seasonal consumption declines and suggests that the supply pressure will persist into early 2026, with a potential increase in prices in the long term as production capacity is regulated [2][27]. - The beef market is stable with prices for fattened bulls at 25.74 CNY/kg and calves at 33.81 CNY/kg, indicating a long-term upward trend in prices due to tightening supply [3][30]. - The poultry sector shows mixed signals, with broiler prices stable at 7.48 CNY/kg and chick prices rising to 3.5 CNY each, driven by limited supply post-holiday [3][37]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - Post-holiday pig prices are declining, with a significant drop in slaughter volumes, down 64% from February 13 to 9.20 million heads per day [2][12]. - The average weight of pigs is decreasing seasonally, with the industry average at 126.05 kg, down 1.35 kg week-on-week [2][18]. - The report suggests monitoring the impact of secondary fattening and frozen product inventory on price support [2][27]. Cattle Industry - The beef market is stable, with prices for fattened bulls and calves remaining unchanged during the holiday period, indicating a gradual recovery in trading volumes [3][30]. - Long-term expectations indicate a tightening supply due to the reduction in breeding cows, which is expected to lead to higher beef prices in 2026-2027 [3][30]. Poultry Industry - Broiler prices are stable, while chick prices have increased due to limited supply following the holiday [3][37]. - Egg prices are under pressure, with an average wholesale price of 7.93 CNY/kg, down 0.38 CNY/kg from the previous period, but there is potential for recovery as supply tightens [3][43]. Seed Industry - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is expected to enhance agricultural productivity and benefit leading seed companies [3][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repair trend of the domestic bond market before the Spring Festival is difficult to be shaken by overseas fluctuations, and it is expected to continue the strong - oscillating trend from after the festival to before the Two Sessions. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage and seize the opportunity of long - term interest rate repair [2][49] - Although overseas risk preference changes may cause certain disturbances to the bond market, they will not change the overall market trend [4] - If the 10 - year Treasury bond can stabilize below 1.8%, the supplementary rise market of 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds is still worth looking forward to [3][30] - The peak of government bond supply in Q1 may have passed [4][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic bond market continued to repair, with most credit and secondary - tier perpetual bond spreads converging. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through 1.8% and finally stabilized around 1.78%, and the long - term secondary - tier perpetual bonds declined more [2][14] - Since mid - January, the continuous net purchase of long - term bonds by large banks has been an important factor in the bond market repair. In January, the new credit of large and small and medium - sized banks was lower than the same period last year, but the deposit growth rate increased, especially for large banks. Large banks increased their bond investment, especially long - term bonds, which is a rare phenomenon [2][15][21] - The Q4 monetary policy report shows that the central bank's demand for stable growth has increased, and its concern about the side effects of easing has weakened. It is expected that the central bank will maintain a loose liquidity environment and increase the purchase of Treasury bonds [3][27] 3.2 Overseas Key Events 3.2.1 US IEEPA Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs implemented under IEEPA were unconstitutional. Trump announced a 10% tariff on almost all US imports under Article 122, which was later raised to 15%. The new tariff adjustment will change the actual tax rates of some economies, and Trump hopes that trading partners will continue to fulfill their commitments [53][54] - After the tariff ruling, the market showed a combination of rising gold prices, rebounding US stocks, falling US dollars, and slightly rising US bond yields. However, this may be a short - term reaction, and the increase in global risk appetite may not last long [57] 3.2.2 The Second Round of Negotiations between the US and Iran Reached a Consensus, but the Military Confrontation Continued to Escalate - On February 17, the second - round negotiations between the US and Iran reached a consensus on the procedure and framework, but there were still differences on issues such as uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, and regional agents. The two sides agreed to start the third - round negotiations on February 26 [58] - Meanwhile, the military confrontation between the two sides continued to escalate. Trump issued an ultimatum, and the US assembled a large - scale air force in the Middle East. Iran conducted live - fire exercises and partially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a significant increase in oil prices during the Spring Festival. However, these military threats may be extreme pressure before the next round of negotiations, and the final result remains to be seen [59][62] 3.3 Domestic Long - Holiday Data - Due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, residents' travel willingness increased. The cross - regional passenger flow during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season increased by 5.5%, and the passenger flow has reached a record high for three consecutive days since the 19th. The travel volume of various transportation modes has increased to varying degrees [63] - The increase in travel willingness has improved consumption activities. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% in the first four days of the holiday, and the turnover of 78 business districts increased by 4.8%. However, the per - capita consumption amount in Hainan's duty - free shopping decreased, indicating that residents' consumption ability is still restricted [71] - The box office of the 2026 Spring Festival film season was at a low level in recent years, which may be related to the increase in travel demand and the lack of high - profile films. The price of Feitian Moutai was relatively stable during the Spring Festival [72][75] 3.4 Overseas Data - The minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there were significant differences among policymakers. Most participants believed that the downward risk of the labor market had eased, but inflation was more persistent, and some even discussed the possibility of raising interest rates. The market's neutral expectation for the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2026 remains at 2 times [77] - Affected by the US government shutdown, the GDP growth rate in Q4 of 2025 was lower than expected, but the impact may be short - term, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 of 2026 is expected to rebound technically [77][79] - Japan's core CPI in January fell to 2%, but the CPI excluding fresh food and fuel was still above the target. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in the middle of the year [81] - The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan rebounded, while that in the US declined. The service PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan increased slightly, while those in the US and the UK decreased slightly [83][85] 3.5 Major Asset Classes - **Stock Market**: During the Spring Festival, US stocks rose slightly, South Korean and European stocks strengthened, the Japanese stock market oscillated, and the Hang Seng Index recovered its previous losses on Monday after adjusting on Friday [87] - **Bond Market**: During the Spring Festival, the US bond interest rate rose slightly, the bond yields in the Eurozone declined overall, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond interest rate declined significantly due to the significant decline in inflation in January [92] - **Exchange Rate**: During the Spring Festival, the US dollar index rebounded, the Australian dollar was strong, the offshore RMB and the South Korean won maintained resilience, and most developed - economy currencies depreciated against the US dollar [99] - **Commodities**: The conflict between the US and Iran and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories led to an increase in oil prices. Precious metals were linked to risk assets and rose significantly after the IEEPA was ruled unconstitutional on Friday [104]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the identification of thematic investment opportunities through a framework that includes "right-side breakout," "right-side trend," "bottom stabilization," and "bottom reversal" [4][8] - The latest thematic outputs include new opportunities in QFII and Zhizhu AI, while ongoing trends are noted in sectors such as photovoltaic, POE film, BC batteries, target materials, and power IoT [4][10] - The report aims to provide a tool for thematic investment, allowing investment managers to focus on logical analysis and decision-making by utilizing various thematic indices [8] Thematic Outputs Right-Side Breakout - New themes identified include QFII and Zhizhu AI, with respective fund holdings of 6% and 1% [11] - The QFII Heavy Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 19%, while the Zhizhu AI Index has also increased by 19% [11] Right-Side Trend - Ongoing themes include photovoltaic, POE film, BC batteries, target materials, and power IoT, with the photovoltaic index showing a year-to-date increase of 19% [14] - The BC battery index has a 20-day increase of 10% and a year-to-date increase of 24% [14] Bottom Stabilization - Themes such as generic drugs, smart logistics, electric vehicles, service robots, consumer finance, and liquor are noted for bottom stabilization [4] - The wine index has shown a year-to-date increase of 3% [18] Bottom Reversal - The report highlights bottom reversal opportunities in lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium battery electrolytes, and mobile phone batteries, with the brand leader index showing a year-to-date increase of 0% [20] - The white liquor index has also shown a year-to-date increase of 0% [20]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a probability-driven approach to industry rotation, treating industry indices as repeatable gaming objects rather than one-time market judgments, focusing on win rates and profit-loss structures to assess long-term gaming value [3][12][14] - A counter-cyclical selection mechanism is introduced, which utilizes historical performance memory for weak industries, allowing for the retention of industries with reversal potential during rotation and style shifts [4][35] - The application of the Kelly formula optimizes weight distribution among selected industries, enhancing capital efficiency and long-term return quality while maintaining the selection results [5][42] Group 2 - The report outlines a basic win rate scheme based on a 24-month window, indicating that this mid-term win rate is more stable and sustainable for future returns compared to shorter periods [17][18] - The performance results show an annualized excess return of 9.6% since 2015, with a smoother return path, indicating a shift from phase-based betting to pricing long-term success capabilities [39][46] - The strategy demonstrates a systematic preference for consumer-related industries, particularly in home appliances, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals, driven by win rates and profit-loss structures [57] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of using comprehensive profit-loss indicators to enhance signal effectiveness, allowing for a more stable assessment of industry performance [39][46] - The strategy's weight distribution is designed to favor high win rate and high profit-loss ratio industries, improving both return stability and risk-adjusted returns [46][47] - The analysis indicates a low turnover rate, suggesting that the strategy does not chase market hotspots but rather relies on rational selection based on win rates and profit-loss metrics [57] Group 4 - The report identifies a high concentration in industry selection, with notable frequencies in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and home appliances [55] - Recent holdings reflect a focus on industries with potential for recovery, indicating a strategic approach to capitalizing on past successful sectors [56] - The findings suggest that the strategy is not overly dependent on specific industries, as it maintains a diversified approach while still achieving significant returns [58]