Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to capture short-term valuation trends in the convertible bond market by identifying upward or downward momentum in valuation levels[23][27][37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 5-day moving average (MA5) of the valuation index[37] - Introduce a buffer to reduce noise: $ MA5_{buf} = MA5 \times (1 + 5/10000) $[37] - Define valuation momentum as: $ Mom = value - MA5_{buf} $[37] - Signal generation: - $ Mom > 0 $: Indicates positive momentum, suggesting a buy/add position[37] - $ Mom \leq 0 $: Indicates insufficient momentum, suggesting hold/reduce position[37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies short-term valuation trends but faces challenges with high turnover rates, making real-world implementation difficult[38][42][50] 2. Model Name: Cross-Sectional Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines valuation levels and valuation momentum to optimize timing signals for convertible bond investments[46][50] - **Model Construction Process**: - Valuation grouping: Divide the valuation index into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on historical percentiles[19][46] - Momentum grouping: Divide valuation momentum into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on historical trends[23][46] - Cross-sectional analysis: Analyze the interaction between valuation levels and momentum to generate signals[46] - Final signal: - Positive momentum ($ Mom > 0 $) and high valuation ($ Q5 $): High allocation to convertible bonds[47][50] - Other scenarios: Adjust allocation based on specific group interactions[46][50] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy reduces turnover in high-valuation scenarios, improving practical feasibility while maintaining performance[50][51] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Annualized Return**: 21.13%[57] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 19.69%[57] - **Annualized Volatility**: 17.85%[57] - **Win Rate**: 47.20%[57] - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.07[57] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.11[57] 2. Cross-Sectional Timing Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 18.29%[66] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 6.74%[66] - **Annualized Volatility**: 11.32%[66] - **Win Rate**: 48.10%[66] - **Calmar Ratio**: 2.72[66] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.45[66] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the short-term trend of valuation levels to identify potential price movements in convertible bonds[23][27][37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define valuation momentum as: $ Mom = value - MA5 $[23][27] - Group data into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on momentum levels[23][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive momentum (Q5) is associated with higher short-term returns, validating the hypothesis that upward valuation trends attract inflows and drive prices higher[25][29] 2. Factor Name: Valuation Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative valuation level of convertible bonds over a rolling 250-day window to assess overvaluation or undervaluation[19][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the valuation index for each day[14] - Determine the percentile rank of the current valuation relative to the past 250 days[19] - Group data into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on percentile ranks[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: High valuation levels (Q5) are associated with lower long-term returns but can still generate positive short-term returns due to market exuberance[19][46] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **1-Day Return**: - Q1: -0.05%[24] - Q2: 0.00%[24] - Q3: 0.01%[24] - Q4: 0.04%[24] - Q5: 0.14%[24] - **1-Year Return**: - Q1: 5.67%[24] - Q2: 6.53%[24] - Q3: 5.78%[24] - Q4: 5.08%[24] - Q5: 3.83%[24] 2. Valuation Percentile - **1-Week Return**: - Q1: 0.17%[19] - Q2: 0.32%[19] - Q3: 0.16%[19] - Q4: -0.13%[19] - Q5: 0.19%[19] - **1-Year Return**: - Q1: 12.57%[20] - Q2: 9.21%[20] - Q3: 5.35%[20] - Q4: 2.52%[20] - Q5: 2.21%[20]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "stronger than the market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The completion of the last concrete pour for the Chang-Jiu High-Speed Railway's main bridge over the Gan River marks a significant milestone, enhancing the high-speed rail network in China and supporting regional economic development [2][4]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has achieved a milestone of over 1 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) in cargo shipments this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 72.5%, indicating robust growth in logistics and transportation capabilities [3]. - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for railway expansion, aiming for a total railway mileage of approximately 200,000 kilometers by 2035, which includes 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, creating substantial market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Development - The Chang-Jiu High-Speed Railway, part of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high-speed rail network, will connect Nanchang and Jiujiang, covering a distance of 138 kilometers with a design speed of 350 km/h, contributing to the modernization of the transportation system in Jiangxi Province [2]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has expanded its operational routes to 24, significantly enhancing the logistics network in western China, with a focus on major ports and cities [3]. Market Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a goal for railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with high-speed rail accounting for 50,000 kilometers, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the rail transit equipment sector [4]. - The projected construction of approximately 35,000 kilometers of railway, including 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail from 2026 to 2035, presents vast market potential for companies involved in rail transit equipment [4]. Recommended Companies - China CNR Corporation: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong position in the industry [4]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A top provider of rail transit control systems, recognized for its technological advancements [4]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [4]. - Sifang Control: A key supplier in the field of high-speed rail monitoring, focusing on safety assurance [4]. - Shenzhou High-Speed Railway: A leader in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients [4]. - Huifeng Technology: Specializes in rail transit operation and maintenance equipment, offering integrated solutions [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan, an increase of 102% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that cost advantages are helping to offset the pressure from lithium prices, with expectations for increased production from mining operations [1][5]. - The company has confirmed an investment income of 235 million yuan from SQM, marking a return to profitability compared to the previous year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.248 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 20 million yuan [2]. - Lithium concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 340,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 2.3% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was 725 USD/ton, down 8.3% from the previous quarter [3]. - The cash production cost per ton in Q2 2025 was 366 AUD, an increase of 7.3% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower ore grades [3]. Production and Cost Guidance - The company has provided production guidance for FY25, estimating an actual output of 1.479 million tons, with cash costs expected to be 325 AUD/ton, aligning with previous expectations [4]. - The production capacity of the lithium hydroxide plant in Australia is gradually increasing, with Q2 2025 output at 2,126 tons, a 36% increase quarter-on-quarter [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.105 billion yuan, 1.556 billion yuan, and 1.790 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 投资要点： 美联储时隔 9 个月重启降息，基于本次决策上修了对经济增长和核心通胀 宏 观 点 评 的展望，点阵图显示当前美联储内部对降息的讨论十分胶着。当地时间 9 月 17 日下午，美联储召开本年度倒数第三次 FOMC 会议并决议降息 25BP，本次 降息后联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4%-4.25%。美联储在本次声明中删除此 前自五月以来所称的"尽管净出口动荡对经济数据造成影响"，新增"就业增 长放缓，失业率有所上升"，以及"（委员会）判断劳动力市场下行风险已经上 升"的描述。基于本次降息可能带来的影响，在经济预测总结（SEP）中，美 联储将 25Q4、26Q4 和 27Q4 美国实际 GDP 同比预测分别上修了 0.2、0.2 和 0.1 个百分点；并将 26Q4 核心 PCE 预测上修 0.2 个百分点；同时，分别下修 26Q4 和 27Q4 美国失业率预测 0.1 个百分点。总体来看，一定程度上凸显美联 储对降息后美国经济复苏的信心。本次会议点阵图显示，19 名与会者中有 9 名美联储官员认为年内最多再降息一次，10 名认为应降息两次或更多，指向当 前美联储内部对降息幅度的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Energy with a target price of 11.52 CNY, reflecting a valuation premium based on its integrated coal-electricity business model [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - Shaanxi Energy is positioned as a leading integrated coal-electricity enterprise backed by the Shaanxi Investment Group, leveraging regional coal resources to implement a coal-electricity integration strategy [1][16]. - The company is expected to experience revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenue growth rates of -13.1%, +15.7%, and +15.1% for 2025-2027, respectively [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shaanxi Energy is a major player in the coal-electricity sector, focusing on efficient coal extraction and electricity generation, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from electricity and coal sales [2][19]. Coal Business - The company has a coal production capacity of 30 million tons per year, with 24 million tons currently in production and 6 million tons under construction. Future capacity could reach 46 million tons per year [3][39]. - The coal business generated 48.4 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year increase, driven by optimized sales strategies [43][27]. Electricity Business - The company has a total approved coal power generation capacity of 17.25 million kilowatts, with 11.23 million kilowatts currently operational and 4.02 million kilowatts under construction [4][67]. - The electricity segment is expected to benefit from the commissioning of new power plants, contributing to revenue growth and maintaining a competitive edge in the market [66][72]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 23.16 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.01 billion CNY, indicating a 17.7% increase in net profit year-on-year [22][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.72 CNY, with a gradual increase to 0.96 CNY by 2027 [4][5]. Dividend Potential - The company is noted for its strong cash flow, which supports a stable and potentially increasing dividend payout, appealing to income-focused investors [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The integration of AI in gaming enhances the entire production process, leading to significant improvements in efficiency and content quality [2][3][4][5][6] - AI tools facilitate creative processes, including content generation, interactive design, gameplay optimization, and narrative production, resulting in faster and more effective game development [3][4] - The use of AI in art and modeling accelerates creative workflows, reduces repetitive tasks, and enhances visual quality, contributing to a more immersive gaming experience [4][5] - AI programming tools streamline game development and testing, allowing for rapid prototyping and bug detection, thus improving overall development efficiency [6] Summary by Sections AI in Game Planning - AI empowers the game planning phase by enabling rapid generation of creative content, including world-building and character dialogues, which enhances production efficiency [3] AI in Game Art - AI significantly accelerates the art creation process by generating diverse design concepts and optimizing visual elements, thus improving the overall aesthetic quality of games [4] AI in Game Modeling - AI tools enhance the efficiency of modeling and animation processes, allowing for quick completion of complex tasks and integration into existing production pipelines [5] AI in Game Programming - AI solutions in programming enable developers to create gameplay mechanics without extensive coding, while also automating testing processes to identify and resolve issues quickly [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Giant Network, G-bits, K-Young Network, Perfect World, and others for potential investment opportunities in the AI gaming sector [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the construction and decoration industry Core Insights - The construction sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue and performance, with a reported revenue of 4 trillion yuan in H1 2025, down 5.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 91.06 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [2][14] - The infrastructure sector shows a decline in revenue and performance, with total revenue of 3.8 trillion yuan in H1 2025, down 5.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90.12 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [3][40] - The steel structure and engineering consulting services sectors are under significant pressure, with revenues of 36.8 billion yuan and 43.94 billion yuan respectively, showing minor growth and decline [4][19] - The renovation and landscaping sectors have seen a narrowing of losses, with revenues of 37.74 billion yuan and 7.51 billion yuan respectively, although they still report losses [4][20] Summary by Sections Construction Sector - The construction sector's total revenue for H1 2025 is 4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 91.06 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [2][14] - The sector's operating cash flow shows a seasonal outflow of -494.38 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 20.86 billion yuan compared to the previous year [33] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 77.5%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, while the return on equity (ROE) is at 3.5%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [38] Infrastructure Sector - The infrastructure sector's total revenue for H1 2025 is 3.8 trillion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 90.12 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [3][40] - The cash flow for the infrastructure sector shows a net outflow of -482.91 billion yuan, with state-owned enterprises facing the most pressure [60] - The asset-liability ratio for the infrastructure sector is 77.9%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable improvement in private enterprises [66] Steel Structure and Engineering Consulting - The steel structure sector reported a revenue of 36.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while the engineering consulting sector reported a revenue of 43.94 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [4][19] - Both sectors are experiencing pressure on profitability, with net profits of 0.99 billion yuan and 1.86 billion yuan respectively, showing declines [4][19] Renovation and Landscaping - The renovation sector reported a revenue of 37.74 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year, while the landscaping sector reported a revenue of 7.51 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [4][20] - Losses in both sectors have narrowed, with net losses of 0.47 billion yuan and 1.43 billion yuan respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [4][20]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - PharmAGRI plans to deploy up to 10,000 Optimus Gen3+ humanoid robots in its "Super Pharm" and Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) facilities to enhance labor efficiency, compliance, and drug diversion control [4] - Elon Musk stated that approximately 80% of Tesla's future value will come from the Optimus robots rather than traditional automotive business [5] - The humanoid robot market is expected to benefit humanity by taking over repetitive physical labor, with predictions indicating that the Chinese humanoid robot market will reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030 [6] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - PharmAGRI has signed a letter of intent with Tesla to procure 10,000 humanoid robots, aiming to automate processes in pharmaceutical and agricultural sectors [4] - The CEO of PharmAGRI highlighted the importance of automation in improving operational efficiency and compliance [4] Market Potential - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units by 2030 [6] - The market is expected to experience significant growth, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of over 61% from 2024 to 2030 [6]

Revenue and Budget Analysis - In August, general public budget revenue reached 1.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, but the monthly growth rate fell by 0.6 percentage points to 2.0%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 3.4%, marking the second-highest decline since the beginning of the year, with significant drops in stamp duty and consumption tax on imported products[3] - The contribution of major taxes like VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed slight improvements, but their contributions remained limited due to low domestic inflation[3] Expenditure and Fiscal Gap - In August, general public budget expenditure growth fell by 2.2 percentage points to 0.8%, the second-lowest monthly figure of the year[4] - The fiscal gap from January to August expanded by 500.4 billion to 3.11 trillion, indicating increased pressure on government debt financing[4] - Government fund budget revenue turned negative in August, dropping by 14.6 percentage points to -5.7%, with land transfer revenue declining by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8%[5] Government Financing and Policy Implications - The cumulative fiscal deficit from January to August increased by 1.98 trillion, with government debt financing progress reaching 80.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than previous years[7] - The ongoing economic structure optimization and cooling demand suggest a potential for increased fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumption[7] - Risks include the possibility that the extent of fiscal expansion may fall short of expectations[7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][122] Core Insights - The building materials sector shows signs of recovery, with profitability improving from the bottom. In H1 2025, the total revenue of listed companies in the building materials sector reached 305.53 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, but the growth rate improved by 8.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, with a growth rate increase of 104.80 percentage points compared to last year [1][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Building Materials Sector - The building materials sector has shown overall recovery, with profitability at the bottom improving. The sector's performance in H1 2025 indicates a significant recovery in profits compared to revenue, primarily due to price rebounds [1][15]. 2. Cement Sector - The cement sector's recovery is attributed to price stabilization, although downstream demand has not yet improved. In H1 2025, the cement sector achieved a revenue of 179.6 billion, down 5.4% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 903.8% to 4.29 billion [2][38]. - The performance of cement manufacturing improved significantly, with 14 cement manufacturing companies achieving a revenue of 165.27 billion, down 5.6%, but net profit increased by 1098.5% to 4.39 billion [41]. 3. Glass and Glass Fiber Sector - The glass manufacturing sector faced challenges, with a revenue of 22.06 billion, down 18.1%, and a net profit of 530 million, down 72.7%. This decline was due to a mismatch in supply and demand leading to continuous price drops [3][72]. - Conversely, the glass fiber sector saw significant growth, with a revenue of 31.1 billion, up 20.9%, and a net profit of 3.29 billion, up 127.0%, driven by structural improvements in downstream demand [3][78]. 4. Renovation Materials Sector - The renovation materials sector showed mixed results, with leading companies performing well while smaller firms faced pressure. In H1 2025, 37 renovation material companies achieved a revenue of 72.76 billion, down 7.7%, and a net profit of 3.7 billion, down 31.1% [4][87]. - The paint sector, particularly leading companies like San Ke Shu, showed strong performance with a net profit increase of 107.5% [4][99]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock reform, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [5].