Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The AI comic industry is experiencing explosive growth, with a focus on quality becoming a key competitive factor. By 2025, the cumulative viewership of comic dramas on Douyin is projected to exceed 75.772 billion [2]. - The initial phase of the industry shows a significant "head effect," with over 30,000 comic dramas, where approximately 80% have annual viewership below 1 million, while only about 69 dramas have surpassed 100 million views, with just one exceeding 500 million [3]. - There remains potential in the female market, as evidenced by the viewership of female-oriented tags. Despite only 6 female dramas in the top 100 for 2025, the "sweet pet" tag has over 2.8 billion views, indicating room for growth in female content [4]. - Major platforms are entering the market, with IP becoming a crucial competitive asset. Companies like Baidu and Douyin are launching their own comic drama platforms, while established platforms are leveraging vast IP resources to attract viewers [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Growth - The AI comic drama sector is projected to see significant growth, with a cumulative viewership of over 75.772 billion expected by 2025 on Douyin [2]. Viewership Distribution - A substantial portion of comic dramas (approximately 80%) has low viewership, while a small fraction achieves high viewership, highlighting the competitive landscape [3]. Female Market Potential - The female-oriented content market shows promising engagement, with specific tags achieving high viewership despite a limited number of female dramas [4]. Competitive Landscape - The entry of major players and the strategic use of IP resources are shaping the competitive dynamics of the industry, with platforms offering incentives for content creators [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhongwen Online, Rongxin Culture, Kunlun Wanwei, and others for potential investment opportunities in this growing sector [5].

Export Performance - In December, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 6.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, with a two-year average growth rate rising[3] - The main drivers of export growth were the electronics industry and high-tech products, with significant increases in exports to neighboring regions, while other regions saw declines[3] - Automotive exports continued to grow significantly, benefiting from a low base, while electronic exports also strengthened due to a decrease in the base[4] Import Trends - December's import year-on-year growth rate was 5.7%, up 3.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the growth rate exceeding the average of the past five years[5] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by higher energy imports and a significant rise in electronic product imports, particularly from the EU and Latin America[5] - Notably, imports from the EU surged by 17.9%, a rise of 16.2 percentage points, while imports from the US fell by 28.6%[5] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in 2026, with a slight decrease in the growth rate center, influenced by a low base in January and February[4] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy is anticipated to lead to a significant decline in exports to the US starting April 2025, but the decline is expected to narrow after April 2026[4] - Recent agreements between China and the EU regarding electric vehicle exports are expected to boost automotive exports to Europe[4] Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, weaker demand from developing countries, and unexpected declines in demand from Europe and the US[7] - Changes in import and export policies, particularly regarding tariffs, pose additional uncertainties for future trade performance[7]

传媒 2026 年 01 月 14 日 AI Agent 的 C 端新标杆：Claude Skills 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 一、Anthropic 再发 Agent 新开放标准：Claude Skills 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 2025 年 10 月 16 日，Anthropic 官网宣布推出 Claude Skills 功能， 是一种通过文件夹结构赋予 AI Agent 专业能力的创新方式。2025 年 12 月 18 日，Anthropic 将 Agent Skills 规范发布至 agentskills.io，使其 成为跨平台可移植的开放标准。微软已在 VS Code 和 GitHub 中采纳该 标准，Cursor、Goose、Amp 等主流编程 Agent 也已支持。Anthropic 在 GitHub 上的 Skills 仓库星标数已接近 4 万，社区创建和分享的 skills 数以万计。 二、Skills 搭建个性化复杂工作流，让 Agent 真正可得。 产品层面，Claude Skills 已展现出覆盖办公、设计、开发、企业 协作等场景的强大能力。 文档处理方面，Skills 可自动生 ...

行 业 研 究 传媒 2026 年 01 月 14 日 AI Agent 的 C 端新标杆：Claude Skills 投资要点： 一、Anthropic 再发 Agent 新开放标准：Claude Skills 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 2025 年 10 月 16 日，Anthropic 官网宣布推出 Claude Skills 功能， 是一种通过文件夹结构赋予 AI Agent 专业能力的创新方式。2025 年 12 月 18 日，Anthropic 将 Agent Skills 规范发布至 agentskills.io，使其 成为跨平台可移植的开放标准。微软已在 VS Code 和 GitHub 中采纳该 标准，Cursor、Goose、Amp 等主流编程 Agent 也已支持。Anthropic 在 GitHub 上的 Skills 仓库星标数已接近 4 万，社区创建和分享的 skills 数以万计。 二、Skills 搭建个性化复杂工作流，让 Agent 真正可得。 产品层面，Claude Skills 已展现出覆盖办公、设计、开发、企业 协作等场景的强大能力。 文档处理方面，Skills 可自动生 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of right-side trends in various sectors, including online gaming, Kuaishou platform, and GEO, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][10] - It also identifies sectors showing signs of bottoming out, particularly blood products, suggesting a stabilization in these areas [3][16] Thematic Analysis Outputs Right-Side Trends - Newly identified right-side trend sectors include: - Online gaming index with a 5-day increase of 11% and a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 12% [10] - Kuaishou platform index showing a 5-day increase of 20% and a YTD increase of 21% [10] - GEO index with a remarkable 5-day increase of 35% and a YTD increase of 36% [10] Bottoming Out - The blood products index has shown a 5-day increase of 2% and a YTD increase of 5%, indicating a potential recovery phase [16] - Other sectors showing signs of bottoming out include: - Pig industry index with a 5-day decrease of 1% and a YTD increase of 1% [16] - Express delivery index with a 5-day increase of 0% and a YTD increase of 1% [16] Right-Side Breakthrough Opportunities - Various indices have been identified as right-side breakthroughs, including: - Financial technology index with a 5-day increase of 3% and a YTD increase of 13% [8] - E-SIM card index with a 5-day increase of 8% and a YTD increase of 15% [8] - AIGC index with a 5-day increase of 16% and a YTD increase of 24% [8] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - Indices showing potential for bottom reversal include: - Methanol index with a 5-day increase of 1% and a YTD increase of 4% [20] - Eye medical index with a 5-day increase of 2% and a YTD increase of 6% [20] - Industrial software index with a 5-day increase of 14% and a YTD increase of 22% [20]

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 通胀上行压力不大 ——2025 年 12 月美国通胀数据点评 投资要点： 宏 核心 CPI 同比低位走平。12 月 CPI 同比持平至 2.7%，与预期一致； 核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 2.7%，继续处于 2021 年 4 月以来的最低 水平。环比 0.2%，也低于预期 0.3%。从分项同比上看，能源通胀继续走低 对冲食品项反弹，核心商品和核心服务均延续低位持平，整体分项数据也 大都保持平稳。 观 点 评 能源通胀走低。12 月 CPI 能源项同比增速继续降至 2.3%，较上月下行 1.9 个百分点。油价方面，下半年以来油价中枢延续稳步回落的趋势，逐步 向 60 美元附近靠拢，主要与目前原油市场大背景还是供给过剩有关。根据 EIA 的数据，2026 年进一步过剩至 226 万桶/日，指向 2026 年原油价格大 概率依旧承压，对应能源通胀继续在低位震荡，不会对整体 CPI 形成较大 的拉动。但需注意地缘政治局部升温（俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等）或驱动油 价短期波动率加剧。 汽车通胀继续下滑。12 月核心商品同比增速录得 1.4%，与上月持平。 本月新车和二手车同比增速均继续 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) is a new method for enhancing the visibility of advertisements in AI models, with research showing that optimized content can increase visibility in AI-generated answers by 40% [3][4]. - The transition from traditional SEO (Search Engine Optimization) to GEO reflects a shift in focus from webpage ranking to content that is referenced and output by generative AI models [4]. - Different AI models have varying preferences for content, emphasizing authority, quality, and timeliness, which necessitates targeted content optimization for advertisers [5]. Summary by Sections Concept of GEO - GEO is defined as a method to enhance the likelihood of advertisements being selected by AI models for optimization [2]. Comparison of SEO and GEO - SEO focuses on webpage ranking in search engines, while GEO targets content visibility in generative AI outputs [4]. - The optimization methods differ, with SEO using keywords and backlinks, whereas GEO emphasizes the influence of AI-generated answers on decision-making [4]. AI Model Preferences - Various AI models prioritize different aspects of content, such as relevance, quality, and structure, which impacts how advertisers should approach content creation [5][6]. Representative Companies in GEO - Semrush, a traditional SEO service provider, is transitioning to GEO services, with projected revenue of $380 million in 2024 [6]. - Profound, a new player in the GEO space, focuses on AI-driven SEO and has raised $35 million in funding [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the transition of the AI advertising industry towards GEO optimization [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new investment themes, including AIGC index, photolithography, phosphor chemical industry, vehicle networking, and brain-computer interfaces, indicating a right-side breakout in these sectors [3][4] - It identifies trends in sectors such as intelligent AI, mobile payments, aluminum, and low-altitude economy, suggesting a right-side trend formation [3][4] - The report also notes stabilization at the bottom for industries like pig farming, insurance capital stakes, yellow wine, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating potential recovery [3][4] - Additionally, it points out bottom reversal opportunities in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, methanol, and industrial software, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [3][4] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - New indices showing right-side breakout include cloud office index, big data index, and photolithography index, with respective 5-day gains of 8%, 10%, and 12% [8] - The phosphor chemical index has shown a 4% increase over 5 days, indicating a potential investment opportunity [8] - Other indices such as vehicle networking and brain-computer interface also show promising short-term performance [8] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The report lists indices like intelligent AI and mobile payment with 5-day gains of 11% and 5% respectively, indicating a positive trend [10] - The aluminum industry index has shown a 15% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong momentum [10] - The low-altitude economy index has also demonstrated a 22% increase over 20 days, highlighting its growth potential [10] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The pig farming index has stabilized with a 1% gain over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [14] - The insurance capital stake index has shown a similar trend with a 1% increase, suggesting investor confidence [14] - Other sectors like yellow wine and innovative pharmaceuticals also show signs of stabilization, with respective gains of 1% and 12% [14] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The methanol index has shown a 6% increase over 5 days, indicating a potential reversal in market sentiment [18] - The industrial software index has demonstrated a 13% gain, suggesting a strong recovery signal [18] - The innovative pharmaceuticals index has also shown a 12% increase, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [18]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the construction of a high-dimensional macroeconomic factor system to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on asset prices and to predict future trends in broad market indices and industry profitability [2][8][9] - It identifies five dimensions of macroeconomic variables: economic prosperity, inflation, interest rates, inventory, and credit, to improve the stability of macroeconomic assessments [9] Group 2 - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a weak recovery, with overall indicators dropping from 72% to 61%, and industrial output and GDP growth rates remaining flat [17][19] - The report highlights that while inflation remains low, liquidity conditions are stable, and credit indicators show signs of improvement, suggesting a gradual recovery in financing demand [19][20] Group 3 - A broad market timing strategy based on macroeconomic variables has achieved an annualized return of 16.2% from January 2012 to December 2025, outperforming the industry by 10.26% [3][30] - The dividend index timing strategy has yielded an annualized return of 10.78%, exceeding the industry benchmark by 8.42% during the same period [3][37] Group 4 - The style rotation strategy, constructed from macroeconomic variables, has produced an annualized return of 14.15%, outperforming equal-weighted style indices by 6.08% from September 2014 to December 2025 [3][50] - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation between dividend and value stocks, while being cautious with growth and performance stocks due to current macroeconomic conditions [23][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the beginning of 2026 seems to mirror the situation at the beginning of 2025. Despite short - term uncertainties, considering the rapid decline in duration and the central bank's supportive attitude, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited. Once the impacts of factors such as supply, credit, and the A - share market are weaker than expected, the bond market may continue to follow the mirror image of early 2025 and experience a recovery [2][10]. - At present, the A - share and commodity price trends are not sufficient to trigger a reversal in the bond market direction. During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks [8][10]. - It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds as the bottom - position, focus on 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds in the short term, and trade long - term bond bands opportunistically according to market conditions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. The Market Adjustment Since the Beginning of the Year is Due to Traders' Concerns about Supply Rather Than the Supply Shock Itself - The core concern in the market is the supply - demand of ultra - long bonds. The market adjustment is affected by the large issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January and the high proportion of ultra - long local bonds in some regions [3][16]. - Although the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January has increased, the net financing scale of treasury bonds in Q1 2026 is only slightly higher than that of the same period last year. The estimated net financing scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 may be lower than that of the same period in 2025 [20][26]. - Local governments may prefer to issue long - term bonds because refinancing bonds cannot fully cover the maturing local debt. However, the national fiscal work conference emphasizes optimizing the government bond tool portfolio, so the issuance term of local bonds may not be further extended compared to 2025 [3][30]. - The recent market adjustment is mainly caused by the large - scale net selling of public funds and securities firms. It is more of an emotional weakening due to supply concerns rather than a substantial impact. As long as the 30 - year treasury bond is the most actively traded, its pricing is still determined by traders, and it has shown higher cost - effectiveness after the recent adjustment [4][31][37]. 3.2. If External Disturbances Are Weaker Than Expected, the Bond Market May Follow the Mirror Image of Early 2025 and Experience a Recovery - Despite the continuous net withdrawal of OMO and the non - excessive renewal of 3M repurchase, the loose capital state continues, which may be related to the year - end fiscal deposit release and the central bank's supportive attitude. The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January has significantly increased, and the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds is also expected to rise [41][43][45]. - Historically, supply shocks have a greater impact on the bond market in a tight liquidity environment. Currently, the central bank's attitude is supportive, and the bank's liabilities do not show obvious pressure, so the supply shock may be less than expected. The central bank has the motivation to solve the problem of the supply - demand imbalance of government bonds [47][49]. 3.3. Wait for the Impact of Risk Preference Changes to Gradually Fade - The bond market adjustment is also related to the continuous rise of the A - share and commodity prices. However, as the upward slope of the A - share market becomes steeper, its volatility increases, and the impact on the bond market has weakened. The rise in commodity prices may be short - term, and the recovery of CPI still faces challenges [50][51][56]. - During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks. Although short - term uncertainties remain, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the subsequent bond market [64][71].