宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 07 月 18 日 经济好转联储反击，美元升值态势延续 ——宏观周报（第 13 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 美国零售大幅反弹，就业连续改善。汽车销售升温，美国 6 月零售大 幅反弹，现有关税影响程度较小。减税法案落地支撑居民收入，美国商品 消费可能加速升温。美国 6 月零售同比大幅反弹 0.6 个百分点至 3.9%，主 要拉动来自汽车。3 月以来美国汽车零售整体位于 2024 年以来较高区间， 显示当前关税对美国耐用消费品需求冲击幅度有限。近期美国新一轮减税 法案落地，中高收入群体收入获得支撑，美国居民消费特别是可选耐用商 品消费需求可能加速升温。美国初请失业金人数连续第 5 周大幅下行，显 示近期就业持续向好，关税对供给侧影响不大。就业和薪资改善的前景可 能意味着美联储降息必要性持续下降。截至 7 月 12 日美国当周初请失业金 人数（季调）仅 22.1 万人，较前周再度下行 0.7 万人，连续第 5 周大幅下 降并创近 13 周新低。预计下半年美国劳动力市场可能再度趋于紧张，就业 和薪资趋于改善，届时美元指数可能迎来大幅反弹。 日本通胀强弩之末，存在重 ...

Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased to 2.7% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from May, while the core CPI rose to 2.9%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase, the first rise in four months[3] - Energy prices contributed significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% in June, up 1.9 percentage points from May, driving the overall CPI rebound[3] Core CPI Drivers - The core CPI's increase was influenced by three main factors: the penetration effect of rising oil prices, initial signs of tariff impacts, and strengthened wage transmission[4] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from May, correlating with the rise in energy prices[4] Economic Outlook - The fiscal stimulus, rising tariff rates, and heated labor market conditions suggest a phase of core CPI recovery in the US, making the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year very low[5] - The anticipated rise in oil prices is viewed as temporary, while the impacts of tariffs and wages are expected to be more sustainable, potentially prolonging inflationary pressures[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations and a significant rebound in the dollar index, which could constrain monetary easing in China[6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - The report highlights that the improvement in chip supply is expected to positively influence capital expenditure (Capex) recovery and tender rhythm, with a focus on the domestic computing power market in the second half of the year [2][4] - Key events include NVIDIA's announcement to resume sales of H20 in China and the introduction of the B30 GPU, which has already received orders worth $1 billion [3][4] - The report indicates that the overall Capex from major manufacturers is anticipated to significantly increase starting Q3, with Alibaba's proposed investment of 380 billion yuan over three years, suggesting a recovery in the power equipment supply chain [4] Supply Side Summary - The chip supply is set to recover, leading to a substantial increase in capital expenditure from major manufacturers, which will accelerate the release of orders for electromechanical equipment [4] - Factors contributing to this improvement include geopolitical stability, the imminent resumption of H20 sales, and strong demand for B30 testing [4] Demand Side Summary - The exponential growth in inference/training tokens is expected to drive demand for computing power, which will, in turn, boost chip shipments and cloud manufacturers' Capex [5] - Notable developments include META's plan to expand Hyperion to 5GW and Tesla's integration of Grok into its AI systems, enhancing vehicle interaction and autonomous driving capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - For power generation: The supply-demand balance may remain neutral to tight, with short-term urgent orders likely to catalyze price increases. Companies to watch include Yuchai International, Chongqing Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Keta Power [6] - For power distribution: Orders and deliveries from leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high growth alongside Capex releases, with potential price reduction risks from large-scale procurement. Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric, Oulu Tong, Kehua Data, and others [6] - For liquid cooling: The demand for cooling in data centers is high, benefiting from increased orders in North America. Companies to focus on include Ice Wheel Environment, Inveck, and others [6] - For HVLP copper foil: The rise in AI server power consumption is expected to drive demand for high-end PCB copper foil. Companies to monitor include Defu Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [6] - Other segments include switchgear and computing power leasing, with companies like Liangxin Stock and Hongjing Technology being highlighted [6]

Economic Performance - In Q2, the actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, supported by durable consumer goods subsidies contributing 2.7 percentage points and net exports contributing 1.2 percentage points[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate fell to 3.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from Q1, indicating insufficient domestic consumption and investment momentum[3] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 5.5% for above-limit retail, both down from May by 1.6 and 2.7 percentage points respectively[4] - The decline in essential goods and dining revenues was attributed to adverse weather conditions, while durable goods related to real estate maintained high growth, with June showing a 10.2% increase[4] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in June fell by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first monthly negative growth since 2022, with real estate development investment down by 12.9%[5] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments decreased by 3.4% and 5.0% respectively, reflecting high base effects and strict control over local government debt[5] Real Estate Market - Residential sales area saw a significant year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with new and second-hand housing prices continuing to drop, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[5] - The price-to-income ratio in the real estate market remains high, with new and second-hand housing prices falling by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively in June[5] Industrial Output - Industrial value added rose by 1.0 percentage points to 6.8% in June, with manufacturing and mining sectors showing increases of 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively[28] - Key manufacturing sectors such as textiles and chemicals showed significant recovery, while automotive manufacturing experienced a slight decline but remained in a high growth range[28] Future Outlook - The sustainability of high economic growth in the second half of the year is uncertain, with potential downward pressures on exports and consumption due to external factors and ongoing real estate market challenges[6] - Monetary and fiscal policies may need to be effectively timed to stimulate the economy, especially if export performance declines rapidly post-August[6] Risks - Risks include the possibility of fiscal expansion falling short of expectations and a greater-than-expected decline in exports[7]

Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The urbanization strategy in China is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements[3] - The emphasis is on "in-depth urban development," contrasting with previous strategies that prioritized expanding city sizes[3] - The meeting highlights the need for urbanization to enhance quality rather than merely increasing population and housing stock[3] Group 2: Modern Urban Clusters - Developing modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas is essential for the dual circulation development pattern, driven by industrialization[4] - High-end industries and innovation activities are concentrated in first-tier cities, which are nearing their resource capacity limits[4] - The strategy involves dispersing mature production capacities from high-level cities to surrounding lower-level cities to improve living costs and resource utilization[4] Group 3: Real Estate Development - The meeting emphasizes a "steady progress" approach to real estate development, focusing on infrastructure investment rather than stimulating new property demand[4] - Key tasks include improving urban infrastructure safety and upgrading old pipelines, while limiting the construction of super-tall buildings[4] - Future urbanization investments are expected to primarily target new urban infrastructure development[4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - Longxin General has established itself as a leader in the motorcycle industry in China, with a successful transition from "product export" to "brand export" through its high-end motorcycle brand "VOGE" [2][14]. - The company is expected to become the largest motorcycle enterprise in China and rank among the top globally following the integration of its operations with Zongshen Group [2][14]. - The brand "Wuji" has positioned itself as a leader in the high-end motorcycle segment, achieving a market share of 14.2% for motorcycles above 250cc in 2024, a 5 percentage point increase from 2022 [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, up 92% [16][29]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 1.90 billion yuan, 2.37 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 70%, 25%, and 17% respectively [4][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.93 yuan in 2025 to 1.35 yuan in 2027 [4][16]. Brand Competitiveness - Wuji has successfully launched several popular models, including SR150GT and DS900X, and has gained significant recognition in the European market, with over 95% of its 800cc motorcycle exports going to Europe in 2024 [3][4]. - The partnership with BMW since 2005 has enhanced the company's quality control capabilities, facilitating its entry into the European market [3][4]. - The company has focused on brand rejuvenation and increased marketing efforts, with advertising expenses projected to reach 80 million yuan in 2024, a 96% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Market Trends - The motorcycle export market has shown significant growth, with a projected export value of 8.716 billion USD in 2024, a 24.75% increase from the previous year [54][60]. - The company has been expanding its presence in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Africa, where demand for motorcycles is increasing [106][108]. - The European motorcycle market is stable and growing, with a market size of approximately 16.3 billion USD in 2023, driven by high demand for large displacement motorcycles [87][92].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 9.6 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 58% to 63% [2]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by about 25% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in growth anticipated for Q2, where revenue is expected to increase nearly 40% compared to Q1 [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation, which is expected to drive profitability improvements [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 196.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.1%, 16.1%, and 14.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 19.20 billion yuan, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 138.2% [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 3.34 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x [6].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report focuses on the transformation of the medical beauty industry, particularly the evolution of the company "Xinyang" as a pioneering medical beauty e-commerce platform aimed at bridging information gaps in the sector [2][5] - The company faced challenges due to weakened demand and increased competition from internet platforms, leading to a significant decline in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) by 55.4% to 1.43 billion yuan in 2022 [2][16] - However, the company is exploring new avenues through supply chain integration and the establishment of "Xinyang Youth Clinics," which have shown promising growth in revenue [2][35] Summary by Sections Xinyang - The First Medical Beauty E-commerce Platform - Xinyang was founded in 2013 to address information asymmetry in the medical beauty market, achieving a monthly active user base of 8.5 million by 2021 [2][5] - The platform has attracted significant investment from top venture capital firms, with the founders and major shareholders holding a combined 58.9% stake as of February 2025 [2][7] Pressure and Adversity: Weak Demand and E-commerce Diversion - The company experienced a decline in performance due to offline consumption fatigue and increased competition from platforms like Meituan and Dazhongdianping, leading to a projected revenue drop to 1.47 billion yuan in 2024 [2][19] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decrease of 6.6% to 300 million yuan, with a net loss of 33 million yuan [2][22] Reversal and Breakthrough: Supply Chain and Service Exploration - Xinyang is expanding into the upstream medical device sector and has launched the "Xinyang Youth Clinics" brand, with 32 locations established across nine cities by July 2025 [2][35][38] - The revenue from treatment services reached 98.83 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 551.4% [2][35] Financial Performance - The company reported total cash of 1.02 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, with goodwill impairment risks cleared [2][26] - The revenue and profit trends indicate a challenging environment, with a projected revenue of 1.47 billion yuan in 2024 and a net loss of 590 million yuan [2][19][22] Supply Chain Developments - Xinyang has made strategic acquisitions and partnerships to enhance its supply chain, including a 790 million yuan acquisition of a laser company and exclusive distribution agreements for high-end hyaluronic acid products [2][32][33] Clinic Expansion and Service Offerings - The "Xinyang Youth Clinics" focus on light medical beauty services, with a strong emphasis on standardized service delivery and efficient management [2][41][44] - The clinics have demonstrated strong profitability metrics, with a monthly average revenue of nearly 5 million yuan and a profit margin of 17% [2][44]

行 业 汽车 2025 年 07 月 14 日 研 究 汽车 极氪 9X 技术发布 理想 i8 将于 7 月 29 日上市 投资要点： 本周专题：极氪 9X 技术发布 理想 i8 将于 7 月 29 日上市 7 月 9 日，极氪发布豪华电混专属架构浩瀚-S，基于纯电架构打造， 该架构拥有浩瀚超级电混、浩瀚 AI 数字底、浩瀚安全盔甲和千里浩瀚 智能辅助驾驶方案，首款出自该架构的车型即为全新的极氪 9X。 行 业 定 期 报 告 极氪 9X 作为全尺寸旗舰 SUV，采用三排六座的座椅布局，二排 拥有双零重力座椅，长宽高分别为 5239/2029/1819mm，轴距为 3169mm。智驾方面，极氪 9X 将会首发搭载千里浩瀚 H9 解决方案， 它由 5 颗激光雷达组成，并搭载了双 Thor 智驾芯片，算力可达 1400TOPS。动力方面，极氪 9X 搭载极氪超级电混技术，采用 900V 高压平台，2.0T超混发动机具备205千瓦的最大功率，热效率达到46%， CLTC 工况下的纯电续航为 380 公里，百公里加速达到 3 秒级。 理想汽车旗下首款纯电动六座 SUV——理想 i8 将于 7 月 17 日开 启预订， ...

Loan and Credit Growth - In June, new loans reached 2.24 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion RMB, consistent with seasonal high growth patterns[3] - The total new loans for Q2 2025 amounted to 3.14 trillion RMB, with a monthly average year-on-year decrease of 223.3 billion RMB[3] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans surged by 1.01 trillion RMB in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 400 billion RMB, indicating the importance of infrastructure investment for growth stabilization[3] Social Financing and Government Debt - New social financing in June hit 4.2 trillion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion RMB[4] - The issuance of new government bonds in June reached 1.35 trillion RMB, up by 507.2 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth[4] - The total new government debt for the first half of the year was 7.66 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.32 trillion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M2 growth rebounded to 8.3% year-on-year in June, a 0.4 percentage point increase, reaching a 16-month high[5] - In June, household and corporate deposits increased by 330 billion RMB and 777.3 billion RMB year-on-year, respectively, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 340 billion RMB[5] - The M1 growth rate jumped to 4.6% year-on-year, a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points, marking the highest level since June 2023[5] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights a structural divergence between credit and social financing, with the need for further observation on whether the trend will improve[5] - Potential upward pressure on the RMB due to a stabilizing US dollar index may impose new constraints on monetary easing policies[5] - The effectiveness of monetary easing policies may be weaker than expected, posing a risk to economic recovery[6]