行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 08 日 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：美国将对华 301 关税豁免期延长 3 个月，巴斯夫出售涂料业务 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3629.26 点，环比上涨 1.98%。 其中，涨幅前五的有润阳科技(15.45%)、奥克股份(14.84%)、浙江众成(10.86%)、 联瑞新材(10.51%)、博迁新材(8.45%)；跌幅前五的有飞凯材料(-7.47%)、长鸿 高科(-6.05%)、瑞联新材(-5%)、彤程新材(-3.38%)、合盛硅业(-3.21%)。六个子 行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5968.97 点，环比下跌 0.92%；申 万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1042.43 点，环比上涨 0.26%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 5685.35 点，环比下跌 1.88%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1169.32 点，环比下跌 0.7%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1692.24 点， 环比上涨 1.33%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1879.28 点，环比上涨 2.0 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant potential market for vitiligo treatments in China, estimating the market could exceed 20 billion yuan, driven by over 22 million patients suffering from the condition [3][48][49] - The current treatment landscape for vitiligo is limited, with existing therapies having various shortcomings, and there is an urgent need for effective, targeted medications [20][15][14] - The report identifies two key companies, Kangzheng Pharmaceutical and Tianen Pharmaceutical, as leaders in the development of innovative treatments for vitiligo, with promising clinical data expected soon [3][28][44] Group 2 - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical's ruxolitinib cream has shown strong clinical efficacy, with a 24-week F-VASI75 response rate of 50% in real-world studies, indicating its potential for significant market impact [36][31][32] - Tianen Pharmaceutical's CKBA ointment is in phase II clinical trials, with data expected in Q3 2025, showcasing a novel mechanism that effectively inhibits immune responses associated with vitiligo [44][47] - The report emphasizes the low competition in the domestic vitiligo drug development space, suggesting a favorable environment for new entrants to capture market share [27][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has initiated the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system, focusing on seven key directions to enhance the integration and consumption capacity of renewable energy [3][19][20] - Zhejiang Province has released a demand-side management plan for summer peak electricity demand in 2025, aiming to reduce peak load by over 1GW through various measures including time-of-use pricing and encouraging user-side energy storage participation [4][27][28] Summary by Sections Market Review - From June 3 to June 6, the gas and water sectors increased by 1.15% and 0.64% respectively, while the environmental and power sectors decreased by 0.07% and 0.60%, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 0.88% during the same period [12][10] Industry Perspectives - The pilot projects for the new power system will explore new technologies and models, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy development and enhancing the reliability of power supply [3][19][20] - The pilot focuses on seven areas: grid-structured technology, system-friendly renewable power plants, smart microgrids, collaboration between computing power and electricity, virtual power plants, large-scale high-proportion renewable energy delivery, and new-generation coal power [19][20][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within various sectors: - For thermal power: Jiangsu Guoxin is recommended, while Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy Power are given cautious recommendations [4] - For nuclear power: China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are cautiously recommended [4] - For hydropower: Changjiang Power is recommended, with cautious recommendations for Huaneng Hydropower and Qianyuan Power [4] - For green energy: Attention is suggested for Three Gorges Energy and Jiangsu New Energy, with cautious recommendations for Longyuan Power and Zhejiang New Energy [4] - For environmental protection: Yongxing Co., Huaguang Huaneng, and Xuedilong are recommended, with cautious recommendations for United Water and attention for Fuzhi Environmental Protection and Dayu Water Saving [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the expected acceleration in the new tobacco sector for British American Tobacco in the second half of 2025, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco products and the phased launch of new products [2][6] - The 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic brands in personal care and outdoor sports, with significant growth potential for companies like Morning Glory and others leveraging IP strategies [2][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to gradually recover as consumer confidence improves, with many companies currently valued at historical lows. Key players to watch include custom furniture leaders like Oppein and Sophia [6][10] Paper and Packaging - As of June 6, 2025, prices for various paper products remain stable, with white cardboard prices increasing slightly. The report suggests a cautious outlook due to overall weak terminal demand [6][54] - The paper industry saw a 1.6% year-on-year decline in revenue from January to April 2025, but fixed asset investment increased by 7.6% during the same period [66][68] Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that domestic brands in personal care are rapidly expanding their market presence, particularly through platforms like Douyin. Companies such as Dekang and Baiya are highlighted for their growth potential [6][8] Export Chain - The report indicates a robust outlook for export-oriented companies, with shipping costs rising due to increased demand for goods from China. Companies like Zhongxin and Zhejiang Nature are recommended for investment [6][8] New Tobacco - British American Tobacco's new tobacco segment is projected to see significant growth in the latter half of 2025, with a full-year growth expectation of mid-single digits, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco and the introduction of new products [6][8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable sales increases during the 618 shopping festival. Brands like Anta and Li Ning are recommended for their strong performance [6][10]

Monetary Policy Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate down to 2.0%, a reduction of 200 basis points from its peak[1] - The ECB has revised its HICP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% and 1.6% respectively, while maintaining the 2027 forecast[1] - The ECB projects real GDP growth for the Eurozone at 0.9%, 1.1%, and 1.3% over the next three years[1] Economic Challenges - The Eurozone faces limited fiscal expansion capacity and slow effectiveness, which may exacerbate the impact of tariff frictions on its economy[2] - Exports to the U.S. accounted for only 17% of the Eurozone's total exports to non-EA20 countries, suggesting that the impact of U.S. tariffs may be manageable[2] - However, the export surplus to the U.S. has increased significantly, reaching 58.1% in March 2025, indicating a potential underestimation of tariff impacts[2] Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in April 2025, decreasing by $75 billion to $87 billion, which may indicate stronger trade pressures on Europe[3] - China's exports in April exceeded expectations, suggesting that Europe is experiencing greater trade shocks due to U.S. tariffs[3] Monetary Operations in China - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity, with a maturity of 91 days[4] - The PBOC's recent LPR cut has provided slight support to the real estate market, but new home sales in major cities have shown signs of decline[4] - A further rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated in June to stimulate the economy amid potential export downturns[4]

- The report introduces the PCR timing strategy based on the Put/Call Ratio (PCR), which serves as a market sentiment indicator. The strategy logic includes trend-following (PCR rising indicates positive sentiment) and counter-trend (low PCR suggests potential sentiment reversal)[4][79][90] - The PCR strategy has shown contributions in 2025 for both the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices. Specifically, the SSE 50 PCR strategy achieved a year-to-date return of 3.07%, with the latest strategy signal being neutral (signal 0)[4][90] - Performance metrics for the SSE 50 PCR strategy in 2025 include a return of 3.07%, maximum drawdown of 6.51%, annualized volatility of 14.61%, win rate of 55.10%, Calmar ratio of 2.32, and Sharpe ratio of 1[81][83] - Performance metrics for the CSI 300 PCR strategy in 2025 include a return of 0.97%, maximum drawdown of 9.44%, annualized volatility of 16.55%, win rate of 54.08%, Calmar ratio of 1.05, and Sharpe ratio of 0.6[85][86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - In June, banks face certain liability - side pressure, but it is generally controllable. While the pressure to renew certificates of deposit (CDs) increases, non - banking institutions have a need for re - allocation. With a relatively loose funding environment, the room for CD price hikes is limited. A 1Y CD with a yield above 1.7% already has investment value, and 1.75% may be the upper - limit. It is advisable to observe the CD prices in the second week of June and make allocations in the middle and late June [2][29] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Situation of CD Maturity in June - The CD maturity scale in June soared to 4.17 trillion yuan, hitting a record high, increasing the pressure to renew CDs. A new round of deposit rate cuts started on May 20, and theoretically, deposit migration will further increase the banks' liability - side pressure, leading to market concerns about subsequent CD rates [2][6] - Medium - and short - term CDs have a large maturity volume, with 3M CDs having the largest maturity scale. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks all have a maturity volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan. Over half of the large - scale banks' maturing CDs are 3M, joint - stock banks have more 1Y maturing CDs, and city commercial banks have more 6M maturing CDs [6] Relationship between CD Issuance, Maturity, Net Financing, and CD Rates - Historically, there is a good positive correlation between CD issuance and maturity. The relationship between net financing and CD rates is weak, while the relationship between maturity/issuance and CD rates has a certain positive correlation, but not every increase in maturity and issuance leads to a significant rise in CD rates [2][14] Impact of Deposit Migration on CD Rates - There have been four rounds of deposit migration since 2024. Except for April 2024, large - scale banks' deposit levels returned to the pre - migration state within one month after the other three rounds of deposit migration, and these four rounds did not cause a significant increase in CD rates, indicating that simply considering the impact of deposit migration on banks' liability - side is one - sided [2][23] Analysis of Banks' Funding Sources - Currently in a new round of deposit rate cuts, large - scale banks' deposit migration is still obvious in the short term, increasing the liability - side pressure to some extent. However, there are positive signals: as of June 4, the banks' net lending balance has recovered to about 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the annual low of about 1.5 trillion yuan; the central bank has shown obvious care for the funding environment after a series of financial policies, and the funding environment is expected to remain relatively loose in June; the net withdrawal of repurchase agreements in June may also indicate that the banks' liability - side pressure is controllable [2][24] Analysis of Banks' Funding Utilization - In terms of credit lending, the bill rates were stable in May, indicating good credit demand. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument is likely to be launched in June, and several major financial policies will be announced during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to stimulate credit in June. In terms of bond investment, the government bond issuance in June is expected to be 2.58 - 2.82 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.22 - 1.46 trillion yuan. Although the government bond payment intensity remains high, the impact is controllable due to the central bank's liquidity support and June being a large fiscal expenditure month [2][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments are in a tight - balance situation. The traditional "base + growth" budget model has drawbacks such as rigid fund allocation and resource waste. Zero - based budgeting, which focuses on actual needs and financial conditions, can improve the efficiency of fiscal resource allocation. The reform of zero - based budgeting is a gradual process, and it is expected to be gradually promoted across the country. The process is more important than the result, aiming to ensure rigid expenditures and support effective industrial development and upgrading [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zero - based Budget Reform Background - Local governments face a prominent contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure. In 2024, the national government - funded budget revenue was 6.209 trillion yuan, a 12.2% decrease from the previous year, and the state - owned land use right transfer revenue decreased by 16%. Compared with the peak in 2021, it has decreased by nearly 3.6 trillion yuan. The expenditure pressure comes from various aspects, such as the "Three Guarantees" and debt repayment [10]. - The traditional incremental budget management model cannot meet the new situation, and relevant policies have emphasized the use of zero - based budgeting concepts to break the rigid expenditure pattern [11]. - The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in 2024 proposed to deepen the zero - based budget reform as a core task of fiscal and tax system reform, and the 2025 Government Work Report supported local zero - based budget reform [12]. 3.2 Zero - based Budget Reform: Meaning, Progress, and Challenges 3.2.1 Meaning and Advantages - The traditional "base + growth" budget model has the advantage of improving budget management efficiency and stability, but it also has disadvantages such as rigid fund allocation and resource waste. Zero - based budgeting, on the other hand, considers actual needs and financial conditions, breaking the "base" concept and rigid expenditure pattern to improve resource allocation efficiency [29][30]. 3.2.2 Zero - based Budget Reform Progress and Current Situation: Preliminary Exploration - **Reform Progress Bar**: The concept of zero - based budgeting was proposed in the 1950s and was implemented in the United States in the 1970s. In China, some localities piloted it in 1993. In the current budget - tight context, the zero - based budget concept has returned to the reform agenda, with central guidance provided in 2021 and 2024 [35]. - **Provincial - level Reform**: Provinces such as Guangdong, Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Tianjin explored earlier, and Anhui, Jiangsu, and Guangxi have also carried out reforms in recent years. Different provinces have different focuses and intensities in reform [3][36]. - **City - and County - level Reform**: They refer to the provincial reform plans and combine local conditions. For example, Wuxi has formed a zero - based budget model through three - year reform practice [37]. - **Reform Case: Anhui** - **Anhui Zero - based Budget 1.0 Version**: In 2022, Anhui launched the reform, focusing on industries and technology. In 2023, it "squeezed" out over 800 million yuan of ineffective fiscal funds at the provincial level. The number of budget items decreased, and the general public budget expenditure at the provincial level decreased. The reform also led to changes in the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure [43][44][47]. - **Anhui Zero - based Budget 2.0 Version**: In 2025, Anhui launched the 2.0 version, extending the reform to the county - level and to areas such as people's livelihood and public services, and promoting cost - based budget performance management [59][60]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Key Points of Zero - based Budget Reform Schemes in Different Provinces - **Reform of Budget Preparation Methods**: This includes project expenditure refinement, industry - specific reform directions, and the establishment of project sorting mechanisms. For example, Jiangsu requires project funds to be refined, and Anhui focuses on industries and technology first [64][66][67]. - **Strengthening Fiscal Resource Coordination**: Non - tax revenue does not determine budget expenditures, and special funds have clear management regulations. For example, Jiangsu implements the "two - line management" of non - tax revenue, and Anhui sets a maximum three - year execution period for special funds [68]. - **Deepening Supporting System Reforms**: For example, Hunan proposes to establish a system to reduce fiscal expenditure standards and promote project life - cycle management [69]. - **Standardizing Budget Management**: Hunan proposes not to link budget arrangements with certain revenue indicators and to strengthen the management of treasury temporary payments [70]. 3.2.4 Comparison of Reform Effects - Anhui significantly reduced ineffective policies and expenditures after the reform in 2022, and the general public budget expenditure at the provincial level decreased in 2023. - Guangxi reduced "Three Publics and Two Fees" and increased transfer payments to cities and counties [77][79]. 3.2.5 Challenges in Reform - High requirements for budget preparation personnel: Zero - based budgeting requires high - frequency evaluation of project rationality and life - cycle tracking, which is time - consuming and requires a large number of professional personnel [82]. - Reform resistance: It may change the original expenditure structure and face resistance from some groups [82]. - Lack of supporting measures: The reform requires the coordinated advancement of relevant laws, regulations, and information construction, but currently, the reform synergy is insufficient [82]. 3.3 Reform Outlook The zero - based budget reform is a gradual process, and it is expected to be gradually promoted across the country. Different regions will have different progress based on their economic and political environments. The reform should be carried out incrementally, starting with strict approval of new projects and performance evaluation of existing projects [4][85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with an expected revenue growth of 6% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, and corresponding net profit growth of 8%, 7%, and 10% for the same years [5][7]. Core Insights - The company has signed a share acquisition intention agreement to acquire all or part of the controlling stake in Shaanxi Changkong Gear, which is expected to enhance its technical strength and core capabilities in the precision technology sector [3][4]. - The company is focusing on transforming and upgrading its precision technology business, leveraging its key technologies in watch movements, component manufacturing, and aerospace watch development [4]. - The acquisition target, Changkong Gear, is a specialized enterprise within the Aviation Industry Group, with projected revenue of 372 million yuan and net profit of 22.97 million yuan in 2024, indicating its status as a national-level specialized and innovative small giant enterprise [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a revenue of 4,570 million yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 3,941 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 4,164 million yuan in 2025 [7]. - The net profit is expected to decrease from 333 million yuan in 2023 to 220 million yuan in 2024, with a gradual increase to 237 million yuan in 2025 and 253 million yuan in 2026 [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.54 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.58 yuan in 2025 and 0.62 yuan in 2026 [7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 yuan for every 10 shares in 2024, amounting to a total cash dividend of 162 million yuan, which represents 73.66% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical index has shown positive returns across most of the six sub-industries, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1][9]. - The draft of the "Best Practice Framework for AI in Pharmacovigilance" was released on May 1, aiming to guide the development and application of AI in monitoring adverse drug reactions. This technology is expected to bring revolutionary improvements to drug safety monitoring, although a risk-oriented regulatory and governance system is necessary [2][7]. - According to the "China Pharmacovigilance Industry Research Report," the Chinese pharmacovigilance market is experiencing significant growth, with 2.419 million adverse drug reaction reports filed in 2023, reflecting an improvement in monitoring capabilities [2][8]. Group 2 - The report notes that the global pharmacovigilance market was valued at 58.568 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.02%, reaching approximately 103.894 billion by 2028 [8]. - The report emphasizes that the domestic AI healthcare models are rapidly developing, and the pharmacovigilance industry is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, necessitating the establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework [8]. - The report indicates that the innovation drug sector is entering a harvest period, supported by strong policy backing and innovation-driven growth, which is expected to enhance the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector [16][20].