基础化工 2025 年 04 月 21 日 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：英国宣布暂停对 89 种产品征收关 税，英伟达 H20 被禁损失或超 55 亿美元 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周（2025.4.14-2025.4.18），Wind 新材料指数收报 3454.91 点，环比下跌 0.25%。其中，涨幅前五的有普利特(11.5%)、长鸿高科(9.67%)、 阳谷华泰(7.83%)、凯赛生物(7.3%)、阿拉丁(6.88%)；跌幅前五的有建龙微纳 (-7.42%)、阿科力(-6.53%)、中简科技(-5.34%)、南大光电(-4.63%)、联瑞新材 (-4.11%)。六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5861.78 点，环 比下跌 1.43%；申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 990.93 点，环比上涨 1.74%；中信三级行业有机硅材料指数收报 5875.92 点，环比下跌 0.72%；中信 三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1173.08 点，环比下跌 1.29%；中信三级行业锂电指 数收报 1641.45 点，环比上涨 0.07%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 ...

公 司 华福证券 股份制银行Ⅲ 2025 年 04 月 20 日 买入（维持评级） 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 评 平安银行（000001.SZ） 非息拖累业绩，零售不良改善——2025 一季报点 评 投资要点： 零售贷款不良率为 1.32%，较 2024 年末改善 7bp，已连续两个季 度改善。其中，个人住房贷款不良率连续两个季度下降，信用卡贷款 不良率连续四个季度下降。除经营贷以外，各项产品的不良贷款额均 有所下降，体现了公司近两年以来调整优化零售结构、加快处置化解 存量风险的成效。 证 虽然零售贷款资产质量有所改善，但是对公贷款不良率有所抬升。 对公贷款不良率为 0.79%，较 2024 年末抬升 9bp，这可能是由于房地 产、制造业领域的资产质量波动带来的影响。 受债市波动的影响，业绩有所下滑 2025Q1，营收增速、归母净利润增速降幅均有所扩大。 营收端：2025Q1，营收增速为-13.1%，降幅较 2024 年扩大 2.1pct， 主要是受去年高基数压制，叠加一季度利率快速上行，债券投资等其 他非息收入同比下降 32.7%。 利润端：2025Q1，归母净利润增速为-5.6%，降幅较 2024 年扩 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector anticipates a new national safety standard for electric vehicle batteries to take effect in July 2026, alongside the launch of the new car model Wanjie M8 by Hongmeng Zhixing and the new brand SAIC Shangjie [2] - In the photovoltaic sector, prices across the supply chain have softened due to the nearing end of the installation rush, with both distributed and centralized component prices declining [2] - The energy storage sector is seeing rapid development across the entire chain, with the CNESA releasing the "Energy Storage Industry Research White Paper 2025," indicating a global energy storage capacity of 178 GWh and a significant increase in new installations [29] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The new national standard for electric vehicle batteries is set to be implemented in July 2026, focusing on safety requirements and testing protocols [10] - The Wanjie M8 has been officially launched, featuring advanced driving assistance systems and a new brand collaboration between SAIC and Huawei [11] - Investment recommendations include companies with cost advantages and those leading in fast-charging and high-voltage technologies [12][13] 2. Photovoltaic Sector - The industry is experiencing price declines as the installation rush comes to an end, with expectations of a return to normal demand post-rush [20] - Price trends in the supply chain show a decrease in silicon wafers and battery prices, with production levels expected to stabilize [21] - Investment suggestions focus on companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and those with price elasticity in the battery segment [23] 3. Energy Storage Sector - The global energy storage market is projected to reach 178 GWh, with significant contributions from China [29] - The number of bidding companies for energy storage systems has increased significantly, indicating a growing market [30] - Investment recommendations highlight quality energy storage integrators and companies benefiting from the growth in energy storage demand [36] 4. Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - The State Grid's fixed asset investment exceeded 90 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a historical high [39] - The U.S. has introduced measures to enhance grid reliability in response to increasing electricity demand [40] - Investment suggestions include companies benefiting from overseas market expansion and digital grid solutions [46] 5. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The hydrogen energy industry is rapidly developing across the entire chain, with significant contributions from China [51] - The first cross-regional hydrogen heavy-duty truck corridor has been launched, enhancing hydrogen supply capabilities [53] - Investment recommendations focus on companies involved in renewable hydrogen production and fuel cell systems [54][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The new generation of coal power upgrades has commenced, aligning with the "Three Reforms and Linkage" initiative, and supports the development of a new power system [3][19]. - In March, electricity demand increased, with significant growth in hydropower and nuclear power generation [4][34]. - The sanitation vehicle market shows signs of recovery, with a notable increase in electric sanitation vehicles [5][83]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From April 14 to April 18, the electricity sector rose by 1.46%, the water sector by 1.42%, the gas sector by 1.08%, and the environmental protection sector by 0.02%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 0.59 [13][14]. Industry Perspectives - The "New Generation Coal Power Upgrade Special Action Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" was issued, focusing on clean carbon reduction, safety, efficient regulation, and intelligent operation for existing and new coal power units [3][19]. - In March, total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with significant growth in the first industry (9.9%) and the third industry (8.4%) [4][34]. - The sanitation vehicle market saw a 3.5% year-on-year increase in sales, with electric sanitation vehicles growing by 64% [5][83]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the need for coal power units to enhance flexibility and low-carbon transformation to meet the requirements of the new power system [5][19]. - The implementation plan encourages the integration of coal power with renewable energy to address the challenges of renewable energy consumption [5][24]. - The sanitation vehicle market is experiencing structural recovery, with high market concentration and continued acceleration of electrification [5][83]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal power companies such as Jiangsu Guoxin and recommends caution for Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy [5]. - In the nuclear power sector, it cautiously recommends China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [5]. - For the hydropower sector, it recommends Changjiang Power and suggests caution for Huaneng Hydropower and Qianyuan Power [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong competitive positions of domestic companies in the tire sector and potential growth opportunities in various sub-industries [3][5][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant investment activities in the phosphate chemical sector, particularly the planned project by Chuanjinno in Egypt, which aims to enhance cost efficiency and optimize the company's cost structure [3]. - The report also notes the signing of a contract for a 300,000-ton bio-aviation fuel project in Zhejiang, indicating a growing focus on sustainable energy solutions within the chemical industry [3]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including the resilience of certain cyclical industries, the recovery of consumer electronics, and the potential for growth in the phosphate and fluorochemical sectors due to supply constraints and increasing demand [5][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.59%. The basic chemical index saw a modest gain of 0.25% [15]. - The top-performing sub-industries included dyeing chemicals (5.17%), nylon (4.77%), and polyester (4.61%), while the tire sector experienced a decline of 2.02% [18][19]. Key Industry Developments - Chuanjinno plans to invest CNY 1.934 billion in a phosphate chemical project in Egypt, which will include the production of various phosphate products with a construction period of three years [3]. - Zhejiang Jianglan signed a contract for a bio-aviation fuel project with a total investment of CNY 1.5 billion, expected to generate an annual output value exceeding CNY 3.6 billion [3]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The tire sector shows strong competitive advantages among domestic companies, with recommended stocks including Sailun, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [5]. - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with a focus on key players in the display materials supply chain [5]. - Investment Theme 3: The phosphate chemical sector is highlighted for its tightening supply-demand dynamics, with recommended stocks including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng [5]. - Investment Theme 4: The fluorochemical sector is poised for recovery due to reduced production quotas for refrigerants, with key players like Jushi and Juhua recommended [5]. - Investment Theme 5: The report suggests monitoring vitamin products due to supply disruptions affecting market dynamics, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine highlighted [9].

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 04 月 20 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 轻工制造 3 月家具文体社零靓丽，内需景气回升可期 投资要点： 【周观点】3 月家具、文娱体育社零增长靓丽，持续看好内需消费景气回 升；本周个护龙头百亚一季报表现靓丽，外围省份高增全国扩张推进，豪 悦护理 Q4 收入增长提速、关注公司 25 年代工业务恢复以及卫生巾自主品 牌进展；关注晨光股份、布鲁可、康耐特光学回调布局机会。 证 券 研 究 报 告 3）轻工消费：①本周百亚股份发布一季报，1Q25 实现营收 9.95 亿 元，同比+30.1%，实现归母净利润 1.3 亿元，同比+27.3%。Q1 线下 渠道表现亮眼，实现营收 6.5 亿元同比+49%，其中核心区域以外省份 同比+125.1%，电商渠道营收 3.22 亿元同比+8.6%。Q1 毛利率同比 -1pct，主因渠道结构和收入占比变化，高端系列产品占比仍在提升； 销售费用率同比-0.43pct，继续加强品牌建设投入。随着舆情影响逐步 消化，建议持续关注公司 Q2 旺季销售表现及线下外围省份的成长势 能。②本周豪悦护理发布年报，24 年实现营收 29.3 亿元，同比+ ...

估值层面，截至 4 月 18 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）61.65 倍，分位数 80%，考虑到现业绩披露仍未结束，PE-TTM 现 值的业绩基数恰好为军工板块业绩触底阶段（2023Q4-2024Q3），叠加 2025 年行业基本面强恢复预期，当下时点军工板块具备较高配置价值比。 华福证券 行 华福证券 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：军工景气趋势不变 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 本周，申万军工指数（801740）下跌 2.55% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.59%， 相对超额-3.14pct，受短期波动及业绩期资金避险趋势影响，整体指数表 现欠佳，但仍有自主可控方向跑出明显超额，主要系： 期 报 告 4 月 15 日，彭博社称，作为对美国关税反制的一部分，中国已要求国内航 空公司停止接收美国波音公司的飞机，并暂停购买相关设备和零部件。现 有国际形势下，对抗趋势愈演愈烈，各方向自主可控至关重要，国之重器 C919 供应体系全面转向国内或是大势所趋，国产替代趋势明确，因此我们 认为，后续商发及商飞产业链发展或有望全面加速。 资金层面，本周被动基金规模和基金份 ...

行 华福证券 有色金属 2025 年 04 月 20 日 业 研 究 有色金属 美国关税政策反复，周内金价再创新高 投资要点： 一周市场回顾：中洲特材（21.89%）、龙宇股份（15.61%）、鹏欣资 源（13.70%）、华锋股份（12.70%）、志特新材（12.39%）、青岛中程（12.36%）、 有研新材（11.52%）、赤峰黄金（9.65%）、金田铜业（9.62%）、科达制 造（9.25%）。 风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 王保庆(S0210522090001) WBQ3918@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美国关税政策反复，周内金价再创新高。美特朗普"对等关 税"政策反复引发市场避险交易，周内金价再创新高，特朗普周三宣称与 日本的关税谈判取得了"重大进展"阶段性缓和市场的避险情绪导致金价 有所走弱。鲍威尔表态美联储不会干预以应对股市的剧烈下跌。欧洲方面， 欧洲央行将存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率下调25基点， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [8] Core Viewpoints - The national subsidy policy continues to drive domestic sales growth, with a focus on the improvement of the domestic demand sector [2][13] - As of April 10, consumers have purchased over 100 million old-for-new home appliances nationwide, with significant subsidy funds utilized [3][13] - The government plans to expand the subsidy categories from 8 to 12 by 2025, increasing the number of air conditioners eligible for subsidies [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on the following areas due to policy support and expected recovery in domestic demand: 1. Major appliances benefiting from the old-for-new policy, recommending companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Hisense Home Appliances, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual [5][19] 2. The pet industry, seen as resilient during economic cycles, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Holdings [5][19] 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which are expected to see demand recovery this year, with a focus on leading small appliance companies like Bear Electric, Feike Electric, Supor, and Newell [5][19] 4. Electric two-wheelers, with strong domestic sales improvement expected, recommending companies like Yadea Holdings, Aima Technology, and Ninebot [5][19] Market Data - The home appliance sector saw a weekly change of +0.2%, with specific segments like white goods, black goods, small appliances, and kitchen appliances showing respective changes of +0.3%, +1.2%, +1.4%, and +0.3% [4][21] - Raw material prices showed a mixed trend, with LME copper increasing by 1.40% and LME aluminum decreasing by 0.68% [4][21] Industry News - The report highlights the strong performance of the old-for-new policy in various provinces, with significant sales and subsidy utilization reported [14][40] - The government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support the old-for-new consumption policy, a significant increase from the previous year's 150 billion yuan [13][14]

机械设备 2025 年 04 月 20 日 行 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：苹果调整供应链布局，持续关注 果链的超跌机会 苹果调整供应链布局，关注果链的超跌机会 根据集微网报道，受到美国总统川普关税政策的影响，苹果正在 调整供应链布局。外媒 MacMagazine 报导，鸿海配合调整苹果 iPhone 供应链布局，鸿海巴西圣保罗厂开始出货 iPhone 16e。 此前受关税消息影响，A 股果链公司大幅下跌。我们认为，此前 关税对果链公司的影响被高估，苹果对供应商的要求极为严格，国内 果链公司具备不可替代性。对于设备企业来说，苹果或将更多的资源 投向有利于降本提效的柔性自动化、3D 打印等新设备和新工艺；或者 加速推广高端机型、折叠屏、眼镜等新产品，也有利于相关产线的新 建和升级。 华为发布智能眼镜 2 钛空版 4 月 16 日，华为智能眼镜 2 钛空圆框光学镜在鸿蒙智家及智能眼 镜新品"抢鲜看"发布会上发布。钛空圆框光学镜用的是圆形钛金属 镜框，配备小艺翻译、头部控制等功能，支持面对面翻译、同声传译、 全天候智慧播报，续航为 11 小时，售价 2299 元 华福证券 国产手 ...