2025 年 06 月 15 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] "狮子的力量"撼动油市，地缘溢价能撑多久？ ——石油石化事件点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2025 年 6 月中旬，以色列空袭伊朗前，美伊核谈已传出不容乐观的 消息，原油 VIX 直线飙升。据 Macrobond 数据，美伊达成协议的概 率从约 50%骤降至 25%左右。 事件发生后，市场担忧冲突影响原油供应，纷纷买入原油期货避险， 推动盘国际油价大幅飙升。据百度股市通，截至美东时间 6 月 12 日 22:50，美油 2507 合约上涨 11.96%，布油 2508 合约涨超 11%。同 时，黄金作为传统避险资产也出现拉升，COMEX 金 2506 合约上涨 1.7%。 伊朗是 OPEC 第三大产油国。截至 2021 年，伊朗石油探明储量达 2086 亿桶，约占全球总储量的 9%（2020 年数据）。20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector's fundamentals and performance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [11]. Core Insights - Quantum Song has acquired a 61% stake in Shenzhen Yiqi Culture Co., Ltd. (Letsvan) for 235 million RMB, marking its strategic entry into the trendy toy market and broader consumer goods sector [4]. - Letsvan operates multiple well-known IPs and has a growth strategy focused on enhancing retail partnerships, developing self-operated stores, and building comprehensive online sales capabilities [3]. - The financial performance of Quantum Song for FY2025Q1 shows a revenue of 570 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, while the net profit increased by 181.2% to 41 million RMB [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Quantum Song is actively exploring business transformation, with online learning service revenues under pressure due to declines in various course offerings [4]. - Letsvan's IP sales have shown strong growth, with successful product launches and significant brand engagement through social media [5]. Market Expansion - The company has initiated localized operations in Southeast Asia and North America, with successful overseas pop-up events validating its international brand acceptance [5]. - Letsvan is establishing a standardized and scalable offline sales network across major cities in China, enhancing its market presence [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the company Kuaijishan (601579) in the yellow wine market, achieving growth despite an overall decline in sales revenue within the industry [3][4] - The company has undergone significant changes in its ownership structure and has implemented a clear product and channel strategy, leading to improved operational performance [6] Company Overview - Kuaijishan has a long history dating back to 1743, with its brand development rooted in the "Yunji Wine Workshop" [3] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2014, and its controlling shareholder changed from Jinggong Group to China Construction Trust at the end of 2022 [3] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in revenue and profit for two consecutive years from 2023 to 2024, showcasing strong performance resilience [3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.89 billion, 2.18 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 245 million, 306 million, and 377 million yuan [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on three main strategies: high-end product development, targeting younger consumers, and expanding its market presence nationwide [4] - High-end products, particularly the Lanting series, are expected to generate over 100% growth in sales by 2024, while the innovative sparkling yellow wine "Yiri Yixun" is projected to see a 476% increase in sales [4] Industry Context - The yellow wine industry has faced challenges with declining sales revenue and profit since 2017, despite an increase in production [5] - The industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on high-end and nationwide market expansion, as evidenced by recent price increases and consolidation among leading brands [5] Market Dynamics - The concentration of the yellow wine industry is increasing, with the CR3 (concentration ratio of the top three companies) rising from 21% in 2015 to 50% in 2023 [5] - The entry of external capital and acquisitions, such as Qingdao Beer’s announcement to acquire Jimo Yellow Wine, is expected to enhance the visibility and regional expansion of yellow wine [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Kuaijishan, has shown resilience and growth in a declining yellow wine market, achieving double-digit growth in revenue and profit for two consecutive years [8][14]. - The company is focusing on a strategy of "high-end, youth-oriented, and national expansion" to break through market challenges, with significant growth in its premium product lines and innovative marketing approaches [26][30]. - The yellow wine industry is facing challenges of increasing competition and price reductions, necessitating a shift towards high-end products to sustain growth [40][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kuaijishan has a long history dating back to 1743, with a strong brand presence in the yellow wine market. The company has undergone significant changes in ownership and structure, enhancing its operational flexibility [8][13][14]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a private ownership model, which has allowed for clearer strategic direction and improved performance [16][21]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated a strong recovery, with revenue projected to reach 18.90 billion, 21.82 billion, and 24.98 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, and net profit expected to be 2.45 billion, 3.06 billion, and 3.77 billion yuan respectively [8][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.51, 0.64, and 0.79 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 43, 34, and 28 times [8]. Market Strategy - The company is implementing a dual-brand strategy with Kuaijishan and Lanting, focusing on high-end products and youth-oriented marketing to capture a broader consumer base [22][24]. - The introduction of innovative products like the sparkling yellow wine "One Day One Smoke" has significantly boosted sales, with a reported 476% year-on-year increase [26][30]. Industry Context - The yellow wine industry has been experiencing a decline in sales revenue and profit since 2017, with a need for high-end product development to counteract this trend [40][43]. - The industry is seeing increased concentration, with the top three brands' market share rising from 21% to 50% between 2015 and 2023, indicating a shift towards consolidation and competitive positioning [50][54].

Group 1 - The automotive business of the Weaponry Equipment Group will become an independent central enterprise, and Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, indicating a high growth forecast for the year [3][4] - The A-share automotive sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of June 2-6, 2025, with the automotive sector index rising only 0.2% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.1% [3] - The restructuring of Changan Automobile's indirect controlling shareholder, the Weaponry Equipment Group, will not significantly impact the company's normal operations [3] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group expects a revenue growth of over 30% year-on-year for 2025, with a net profit increase of over 40% [4] - The company aims to achieve profitability in its smart electric vehicle business by Q3 2025 and plans to expand its overseas electric vehicle sales starting in 2027 [4] - Xiaomi has invested 13.5 billion yuan in its self-developed automotive semiconductor products as part of a ten-year plan [4] Group 3 - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2025, which supports upward automotive consumption [5] - Recommended companies in the automotive sector include Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, with a focus on high-end vehicles [5] - The commercial vehicle sector is anticipated to recover in 2025, with recommendations for leading companies such as Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck [5] Group 4 - The pig farming industry may experience a price and policy turning point, with recommendations for companies like Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods [11] - The poultry industry is facing challenges due to overseas avian influenza, but there is potential for price improvement in the future [12] - The pet medical industry is growing, with a market size of approximately 840 billion yuan, and investment opportunities are recommended in companies like Keqian Biology and Ruipin Biology [13] Group 5 - The food and beverage sector has shown a mixed performance, with the soft drink segment performing well, while the overall food and beverage index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The liquor sector is facing price pressures due to increased competition among e-commerce platforms during promotional events [18] - Recommended companies in the liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [20] Group 6 - The REITs market has seen a total market value surpassing 200 billion yuan, with the REITs index outperforming other indices [23] - The transportation infrastructure sector has led the weekly gains among REITs, with specific REITs like the China Merchants Highway REIT showing significant increases [24] - The cash distribution rates for different types of REITs indicate a favorable environment for investment in the sector [26] Group 7 - The North Exchange is set to launch the Specialized and Innovative Index, which will provide a benchmark for investment in specialized small and medium enterprises [29] - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown a slight increase, with a focus on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations [30] - Recommended companies include Tongli Co. and Hengtuo Technology, which are expected to benefit from infrastructure investments [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific stocks and a focus on long-term investment value in the North Exchange market [38]. Core Insights - The North Exchange market has shown significant performance, with the North Certificate 50 Index increasing by 91.13% over the past year, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [2][10]. - The upcoming launch of the North Certificate Specialized and Innovative Index on June 30, 2025, aims to provide diverse investment targets and performance benchmarks, reflecting the overall performance of specialized and innovative companies listed on the North Exchange [28][30]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations, particularly those with low valuations and thematic relevance [3][4]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of June 6, 2025, the North Exchange A-share component consists of 266 stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.053 billion [10]. - The North Certificate 50 Index recorded a weekly increase of 1.30%, closing at 1427.06 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.88% [10][21]. - The average daily trading volume for the North Certificate 50 was 24.834 billion, reflecting a decrease of 2.38% from the previous week [23]. Stock and Industry Performance - In the week from June 3 to June 6, 2025, 181 stocks rose, 81 fell, and 4 remained flat, indicating an overall increase rate of 68.05% [15]. - The top five performing industries were Computer, Oil and Petrochemical, Public Utilities, Media, and Textile and Apparel, with respective increases of 6.37%, 6.19%, 5.49%, 5.49%, and 5.08% [21][22]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed this week, but one company, Shichang Co., submitted registration, and another, Jiaoda Iron and Steel, is set to be listed next week [26]. Announcements and Index Launch - The North Exchange will officially launch the North Certificate Specialized and Innovative Index, which will include the 50 largest companies based on market capitalization that meet specific criteria [28][30]. - The index aims to reflect the growth and innovation of "little giant" companies, with a total R&D investment of 1.79 billion in 2024, accounting for 5.6% of revenue [30]. Focused Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies highlighted for investment include Tongli Co. (Buy), Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (Buy), Kaide Quartz (Increase), and Hualing Co. (Increase) [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 indicate growth for these companies, with PE ratios suggesting favorable valuations [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, one REIT started the inquiry process and one new REIT was declared. As of June 6, 2025, there was 1 declared, 2 accepted, 1 under inquiry, 7 with feedback, and 5 approved and awaiting listing. A total of 6 projects had their review status updated this week [4][11]. - The secondary - market REITs index outperformed, with the total market value exceeding 200 billion yuan for the first time. The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 1.58%, better than the Dividend Index, ChinaBond New Composite Wealth Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI Convertible Bond Index. The total market value reached 202.074 billion yuan, up 3.867 billion yuan from the previous week. The daily average turnover rate was 0.48%, down from 0.56% last week [4]. - Transportation infrastructure REITs took the top three spots in individual bond gains. Concession - type REITs had a weighted average weekly increase of 2.74%, better than the 0.92% of property - type REITs. The transportation infrastructure sector led with a 3.38% weighted average weekly increase, while the affordable rental housing infrastructure had the smallest increase of 0.03% [4]. - Municipal environmental protection and water conservancy had the highest turnover rate, and industrial park infrastructure had the highest trading volume. The municipal environmental protection and water conservancy sector led with a 0.68% weekly turnover rate, and industrial park infrastructure REITs had a weekly trading volume of 175 million shares [4]. - The internal rate of return (IRR) of concession - type REITs decreased rapidly. As of June 6, 2025, the average cash distribution rate of property - type REITs was 3.84%, with the consumer infrastructure at 4.33% leading. The average cash distribution rate of concession - type REITs was 8.06%, with municipal facilities at 12.38% leading. The ChinaBond REITs valuation yield (IRR) of property - type REITs (4.08%) was higher than that of concession - type REITs (3.34%), and the PV multiplier of concession - type REITs (1.26) was lower than that of property - type REITs (1.30) [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Dynamics - As of June 6, 2025, 7 public REITs products were successfully issued this year, 2 fewer than the same period last year. January was the month with the most issuances, with 3 products established [9]. - As of June 6, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the declared stage, 2 in the accepted stage, 1 under inquiry, 7 with feedback, and 5 approved and awaiting listing [9]. - This week, 6 projects had their review status updated, including 1 starting the inquiry process and 1 newly declared [11]. 3.2 Secondary Market Review and Analysis 3.2.1 Market Scale and Liquidity - As of June 6, 2025, the total market value of public REITs in the whole market reached 202.074 billion yuan, up 3.867 billion yuan from the previous week, exceeding 200 billion yuan for the first time. The total circulating market value increased to 93.58 billion yuan, up 1.542 billion yuan weekly. The daily average turnover rate was 0.48%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight decline in market trading activity [13]. 3.2.2 Index Performance - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 1.58%, leading the Dividend Index (0.08%), ChinaBond New Composite Wealth Index (0.13%), CSI 300 Index (0.88%), and CSI Convertible Bond Index (1.08%). The volatility of the CSI 300 Index this week was 1.08%, higher than that of other indices [15]. 3.2.3 Sector Performance - By project attribute, concession - type REITs had a weighted average weekly increase of 2.74%, better than the 0.92% of property - type REITs. By underlying asset type, the transportation infrastructure sector led with a 3.38% weighted average weekly increase, followed by the municipal environmental protection and water conservancy sector with a 1.68% increase. The affordable rental housing infrastructure had the smallest increase of 0.03% [21]. 3.2.4 Individual Bond Performance - At the individual bond level, the top four projects with a weekly increase of over 5% were all from the transportation infrastructure and energy infrastructure sectors. There were also several REITs projects with a weekly increase of over 4% [24]. 3.2.5 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - In terms of weekly trading volume, industrial park infrastructure REITs ranked first with 175 million shares, followed by transportation infrastructure, warehousing and logistics, etc. In terms of weekly turnover rate, the municipal environmental protection and water conservancy sector led with 0.68%, followed by industrial park infrastructure [27]. 3.2.6 Valuation Level - As of June 6, 2025, the average cash distribution rate of property - type REITs was 3.84%, with consumer infrastructure at 4.33% leading. The average cash distribution rate of concession - type REITs was 8.06%, with municipal facilities at 12.38% leading. The ChinaBond REITs valuation yield (IRR) of property - type REITs (4.08%) was higher than that of concession - type REITs (3.34%), and the PV multiplier of concession - type REITs (1.26) was lower than that of property - type REITs (1.30) [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the end of the quarter, there is a possibility that banks may sell bonds again to realize floating profits, but the scale will be lower than that in the first quarter, with a relatively limited impact. The bank's liability pressure may remain in a tight - balance state. For the bond market in June, the impact of banks selling bonds at the end of the quarter on medium - and long - term varieties is relatively limited, and the power to drive interest rates down is relatively weak. However, if long - term interest rates rise above 1.7%, it is an opportunity to layout at high levels. Short - term opportunities are more certain [2][16][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank Asset - Liability Pressure and Bond Market Trends - **Asset - side: Profit - taking Pressure**: In March this year, due to the disappointment of easing expectations and the tightening of the capital market, banks sold a large number of old bonds to realize floating profits. In the second quarter, although there is a possibility of banks selling bonds again to realize floating profits, the scale will be lower than that in the first quarter, and the impact is relatively limited [14][16]. - **Liability - side: Maintaining Tight Balance**: In June, banks will face the dual pressure of the maturity peak of inter - bank certificates of deposit and the large - scale issuance of government bonds. However, it is expected that the central bank may relieve the bank's liability pressure by buying national bonds, and the liability pressure may remain in a tight - balance state [22][27]. - **Impact on the Bond Market in June**: For medium - and long - term varieties, the impact of banks selling bonds at the end of the quarter is relatively limited, and the power to drive interest rates down is relatively weak. But if long - term interest rates rise above 1.7%, it is an opportunity to layout at high levels. For short - term varieties, the opportunities are more certain [28]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody No specific content provided in the text for in - depth analysis. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Price**: This week, liquidity has relaxed. R007 closed at 1.55%, a decrease of 15BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.53%, a decrease of 13BP from last week; the 6 - month national stock transfer discount rate closed at 1.14%, an increase of 3BP from last week [3][37]. - **Financing Situation**: This week, the balance of pledged reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market was 114,851.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% from last week. From the perspective of broad - based asset management, fund companies and bank wealth management had net financings of 28.69 billion yuan and - 36.06 billion yuan respectively this week [40]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Measuring Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market were 6.81 and 5.36 respectively, an increase of 0.14 and 0.08 respectively from last week [48]. - **"Asset Scarcity" Index**: The "asset scarcity" index decreased slightly this week [4]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: No specific data analysis content provided in the text. - **Institutional Leverage**: This week, the overall market leverage ratio was 107.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last week. In terms of broad - based asset management, the leverage ratios of insurance institutions, funds, and securities firms were 113.6%, 103.4%, and 196.6% respectively, with corresponding changes compared to last week [66]. - **Bank Self - operated Comparison Table**: The report provides a comparison table of bank self - operated investments, including nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and returns after considering taxes and risk capital for different investment products [71]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: No specific data analysis content provided in the text. - **Bank Wealth Management**: This week, the proportion of non - performing wealth management products in the whole market increased compared with last week, and the proportion of all non - performing products was 2.0% [76]. 3.6 National Bond Futures Trend Tracking No specific content provided in the text for in - depth analysis. 3.7 General Asset Management Pattern No specific content provided in the text for in - depth analysis.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 2.12% over the past two weeks, compared to a 1.10% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, resulting in a 3.22 percentage point lag [4][17] - The report highlights a significant interest in new consumption trends, particularly in health products and yellow wine, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for policy changes to improve macroeconomic expectations, which could enhance both valuation and performance in the food and beverage sector [28] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance over the last year shows a decline of 5.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 7.8% [4] - Within the sector, soft drinks have seen the highest increase of 9.45%, followed by snacks and other alcoholic beverages with increases of 5.48% and 4.98% respectively [17] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies in the liquor segment include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [8][30] - In the consumer goods segment, companies such as Bai Run, Wei Long, Yan Jin Pu Zi, Wan Chen Group, and You You Food are highlighted as key players [10][30] Market Trends - The report notes that the 618 shopping festival has led to increased competition and promotional activities in the liquor market, which may pressure prices [6][8] - New product launches, such as Nongfu Spring's new iced tea, are expected to create differentiated market offerings and enhance competitive positioning [9][30] Valuation Insights - As of June 6, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 21.25x, indicating a mid-range valuation among primary industries [23][28] - The report suggests that the current low valuations present an opportunity for investment as the sector is expected to benefit from upcoming policy changes [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][62]. Core Viewpoints - The swine sector may experience a combination of price and policy turning points, suggesting a bottoming out phase [4][11]. - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to overseas breeding stock import restrictions, but the yellow chicken industry is showing signs of improvement [5][26]. - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, while the pet medical industry presents significant investment opportunities [6][37]. - The planting sector is witnessing a decline in wheat and soybean meal prices, which may benefit companies with early investments in genetically modified seeds [8][45]. - The feed sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a potential increase in industry concentration [48]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market showing continuous growth [56]. Summary by Sections Swine - Investment suggestion indicates that after the Spring Festival in 2025, swine prices are expected to remain stable in the range of 14-15 yuan/kg, with significant upward pressure on average weights [4][15]. - The report highlights the importance of low-cost, rapidly expanding, and financially stable swine enterprises, recommending companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][15]. Poultry - The report notes that the poultry sector is affected by avian influenza, leading to a halt in overseas breeding stock imports, but anticipates price improvements due to a lack of quality breeding sources [5][26]. - Key recommendations include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock, with a focus on companies like He Feng and Minhe Livestock [5][26]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to see a recovery in performance, supported by the profitability of the swine farming industry [6][37]. - The pet medical market is projected to reach a scale of approximately 840 billion yuan in 2024, representing 28% of the pet industry [6][37]. Planting - The report indicates a decrease in wheat and soybean meal prices, with corn prices remaining stable [8][45]. - Companies such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech are recommended for their early investments in genetically modified seeds [8][45]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a noted decrease in prices for various types of feed [48]. - The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending Haida Group and monitoring He Feng [48]. Pets - The pet economy is growing, with the market size for pet consumption reaching 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase [56]. - Recommendations include companies in the pet food sector such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on the pet medical sector [56].