Market Performance - As of May 16, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index increased by 8.90% over the past month, 15.56% over the past three months, and 79.80% over the past year[1] - The average market capitalization of the 266 A-share constituent stocks on the North Exchange is 3.016 billion yuan[9] - The daily average trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 34.684 billion yuan, up 11.45% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 4.55%[22] Stock and Industry Trends - Out of 266 stocks, 179 rose, 87 fell, and none remained flat, resulting in a rise ratio of 67.29%, which is a decrease of 24.40 percentage points week-on-week[15] - The top five performing industries were non-ferrous metals (226.44%), transportation (74.60%), public utilities (10.56%), beauty care (9.32%), and food and beverage (8.85%)[19] - The bottom five industries included defense and military (−2.82%), computer (−1.26%), social services (−0.96%), electric equipment (−0.36%), and communication (0.27%)[19] New Listings and Company Insights - Tian Gong Co., Ltd. was listed on May 13, 2025, with a revenue of 801 million yuan and a net profit of 172 million yuan in 2024[26] - The company experienced a significant revenue increase of 170.23% in 2023, reaching 1.035 billion yuan, with a net profit of 170 million yuan[27] - Tian Gong's gross margin was 30.40% in 2024, an increase of 4.88 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.78%, up 4.86 percentage points[27] Investment Strategy and Risks - The North Exchange 50 Index continues to lead the market, with a focus on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations[3] - Recommended stocks include Tongli Co. (PE 10.72), Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (PE 20.10), and Kaide Quartz (PE 33.40) among others[4] - Key risks include systemic risks, reliance on imported technology and materials, policy risks, and potential underperformance of key companies[35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][12][13] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 28.829 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.301 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 34.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.5% [4][8] - The gaming business showed strong growth, with revenue from games and value-added services reaching 28.83 billion yuan, driven by new game launches and a robust strategy of "refinement and longevity" [8][10] - The company is expected to continue focusing on innovation and long-term operations, enhancing the gaming experience for global players [8][10] Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for Q1 2025 include: - Revenue: 28.829 billion yuan (YoY +7.4%, QoQ +7.8%) - Net profit: 10.301 billion yuan (YoY +34.9%, QoQ +17.5%) - Non-GAAP net profit: 11.237 billion yuan (YoY +32%, QoQ +16.1%) - Gross margin: 64.1% (YoY +0.7pct, QoQ +3.3pct) [4][8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 601.54 billion HKD, with a current share price of 190.00 HKD [6][8] Business Segments - **Gaming Business**: Revenue from gaming and value-added services was 28.83 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 68.8%. New games contributed significantly to revenue growth, with titles like "Marvel Duel" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieving notable success [8][10] - **Youdao**: Revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.298 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-over-year. However, operating profit increased significantly, indicating improved financial efficiency [8][10] - **NetEase Cloud Music**: Revenue was 1.858 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-over-year, but cost control measures led to a gross margin of 36.7% [8][10] - **Innovative and Other Businesses**: Revenue decreased by 17.6% year-over-year to 1.624 billion yuan, with a focus on high-quality products and services [8][10] Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: 1140 billion yuan - 2026: 1239 billion yuan - 2027: 1303 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025: 39 billion yuan - 2026: 43.5 billion yuan - 2027: 46.1 billion yuan [11][12]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Benchmark Deviation Consideration: How Public Funds Allocate Industries - Asset Allocation Special Report" and was released on May 19, 2025 [3][1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds" aims to shift fund companies from "emphasizing scale" to "emphasizing returns" and address the issue of fund style drift [5][13] - Style - stable funds generally perform better in the medium - to - long term than style - drifting funds, and style stability helps investors form stable investment expectations [6][14] - There is no significant correlation between the industry deviation of active equity funds and their returns, and industry drift does not contribute to excess returns [7][19] - If the industry allocation of funds moves closer to the performance benchmark, the financial sector may experience a resonance of fundamentals and capital flows [7][28] Summary by Directory 1. The Formal Release of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds" - On May 7, the CSRC issued the plan, which includes 25 measures to promote the transformation of fund companies and address style drift [13] - Due to factors such as rapid market style changes, short - term performance pressure, and the pursuit of channel attention, the problem of fund style drift in China remains unsolved [14] - The plan includes measures such as establishing a floating management fee collection mechanism linked to fund performance, strengthening the constraint of performance benchmarks, enhancing transparency, reforming performance assessment mechanisms, and strengthening regulatory classification evaluation [15] 2. Current Industry Deviation of Active Equity Funds from the Benchmark - The average comprehensive industry deviation of active equity funds is 101%, and the average comprehensive industry deviation scale is 6.66 billion yuan, indicating a large deviation from the performance benchmark [7][18] - Most funds' industry deviations fall within the [80%, 120%) and [120%, 160%) intervals [7][18] - According to the 2024 annual reports, the most under - allocated industries are banks (-7.03%) and non - banks (-6.65%), while the top three over - allocated industries are electronics (+5.15%), machinery and equipment (+2.20%), and automobiles (+1.84%) [7][28] - There is more than 100 billion yuan of under - allocation in the bank and non - bank sectors compared to the benchmark index. If the allocation moves towards the benchmark, about 300 billion yuan may flow into the financial sector [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][46] Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results show strong revenue growth driven by gaming and advertising, with significant operational leverage from AI integration [3][11][46] - The company achieved a revenue of 180 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4% [12][17] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, up 22% year-over-year, indicating robust profitability [12][17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 180 billion RMB, with operating profit at 57.6 billion RMB and net profit at 47.8 billion RMB [12][17] - The overall gross margin improved to 55.8%, up 3.24 percentage points year-over-year [17][22] - Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18% year-over-year, reflecting effective cost management and revenue growth [12][17] Operational Data - WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.402 billion, growing 3% year-over-year [8][13] - The number of registered accounts for value-added services increased to 268 million, a 3% year-over-year growth [8][13] Business Segments - Gaming revenue accelerated by 24% year-over-year, with domestic and international markets growing by 24% and 22% respectively [29][30] - Marketing services revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for advertising within the WeChat ecosystem [38][40] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 5% year-over-year, with a notable recovery in cloud services [41][42] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 725.6 billion RMB, 791.3 billion RMB, and 863.1 billion RMB respectively [46] - Non-IFRS net profit projections for the same period are 254.7 billion RMB, 286.5 billion RMB, and 321.8 billion RMB [46] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure in Q1 2025 reached 27.5 billion RMB, a 91% increase year-over-year, reflecting investments in AI and core business operations [43][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential revaluation of phosphate rock value due to ongoing supply-demand tensions, with increasing demand for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [6][4]. - The chemical industry is expected to enter a restocking cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading chemical companies [5][27]. - The report emphasizes the expansion of phosphate production capacity by Batian Co., which is set to increase its phosphate rock extraction capacity to 2 million tons per year [4][6]. Summary by Sections Core Target Tracking - The report tracks key companies in the chemical sector, including Batian Co., which is expanding its phosphate production capacity significantly [4][6]. - It also notes the performance of various chemical products, with a focus on price increases for butadiene and polyester filament due to favorable market conditions [10][14]. Market Observation - The chemical sector has shown a relative performance of 6.7% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with several companies poised for growth due to favorable market dynamics [5][27]. Data Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of price movements for key chemical products, including butadiene, polyester filament, and various fertilizers, indicating a general upward trend in prices [10][12][17]. - It also highlights the current chemical industry sentiment index at 93.10, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhua Chemical and various tire manufacturers, as well as those benefiting from rising product prices [5][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of high dividend yield companies in the chemical sector, particularly state-owned enterprises with stable financials [8][29].

评级：推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 2025年05月18日 有色金属 铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报：去库表现强势，关注需求及出口走向（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-04-21 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓解，铝价压制减弱，关注需求变化（推荐）*有色 金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-04-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.7% | 1.3% | -0.0% | | 沪深300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price expectations are beginning to improve as port inventory decreases and power plant replenishment demand becomes evident [1][7] - The supply side is tightening due to safety and environmental inspections leading to temporary mine closures, while demand remains supported by non-electric sectors [5][15] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with high dividends and strong cash flows, amidst market volatility [7][81] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port coal price decline has narrowed to 16 CNY/ton this week, down from 22 CNY/ton the previous week, indicating a potential stabilization [15][79] - The production capacity utilization in the main producing areas has decreased by 0.99 percentage points due to inspections and maintenance [15][79] - Coastal and inland power plant coal inventories are relatively low compared to last year, with a total of 11,478 million tons as of May 14, 2025, which is 146 million tons lower than the same period last year [15][79] 2. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal remains stable, with the capacity utilization rate unchanged, while imports have increased slightly [5][80] - Coking coal prices have remained stable at ports, with the average price at 1,320 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [47][80] - The inventory of coking coal production enterprises has increased by 23.22 million tons, indicating a slight oversupply [46][80] 3. Coke - The utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased to 76.02%, reflecting high production levels despite a slight decrease in iron output [6][59] - Coke prices have decreased slightly, with the price at 1,400 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [59][60] - The overall profitability in the coke industry has improved, with an average profit of 7 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week [62][66] 4. Anthracite Coal - The price of anthracite coal has remained stable, with the price at 850 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [76][78] - The demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, continues to support the anthracite market [76][78] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment potential in coal companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal [7][81] - The focus is on companies that exhibit characteristics of high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, which are attractive in the current market environment [7][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and boost sales in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a significant increase in the first-quarter performance of Geely, with revenue reaching 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263% [27] - The report emphasizes the strategic integration of Geely and Zeekr Technology Group under the "One Geely" strategy to enhance resource allocation and improve competitiveness in the market [12][27] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index rising by 2.4% compared to the index's 0.8% increase [17] - The performance of individual segments during this period showed passenger vehicles up by 4.4%, while commercial vehicles declined by 1.7% [17] Key Company Developments - Geely launched its 2026 C10 model, priced between 122,800 to 142,800 yuan, featuring a maximum range of 605 km for the pure electric version [13] - Great Wall Motors introduced the new high-end MPV, the Wei brand Gao Shan, starting at 309,800 yuan, equipped with advanced driving assistance systems [14] - NIO's new ES6 and EC6 SUVs were launched with starting prices of 338,000 yuan and 358,000 yuan, respectively, showcasing significant performance metrics [15] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand in 2025 after three years of low performance, recommending leading companies in the commercial vehicle sector [16] - The report suggests that companies with high-quality supply in the automotive sector are likely to benefit significantly, recommending stocks such as Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [16][6] Stock Recommendations - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts and investment ratings, including: - Li Auto (buy) with an expected EPS of 5.03 in 2025 - BYD (buy) with an expected EPS of 18.15 in 2025 - Great Wall Motors (increase) with an expected EPS of 1.63 in 2025 [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The core business shows steady growth, with a strong ongoing demand for AI [1] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q4, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7% [9] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 41.8 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year [9] - The net profit surged to 12 billion yuan, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 1203% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025Q4, Alibaba achieved: - Revenue: 236.5 billion yuan (YoY +7%, QoQ -16%) [9] - Operating profit: 28.5 billion yuan (YoY +93%, QoQ -31%) [9] - Adjusted EBITDA: 41.8 billion yuan (YoY +36%, QoQ -33%) [9] - Net profit: 12 billion yuan (YoY +1203%, QoQ -74%) [9] - Non-GAAP net profit: 29.8 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ -42%) [9] Business Segment Performance - Taobao Group: - Revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 9% [11] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) increased by 12% [11] - Adjusted EBITA was 41.7 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 41% [11] - International Digital Commerce Group: - Revenue grew by 22% to 33.6 billion yuan, driven by strong cross-border business performance [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group: - Revenue increased by 18% to 30.1 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [39] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are as follows: - FY2026: 1,087.3 billion yuan - FY2027: 1,193.2 billion yuan - FY2028: 1,312.5 billion yuan [44] - Projected net profits for the same period are: - FY2026: 144.5 billion yuan - FY2027: 169.3 billion yuan - FY2028: 192.8 billion yuan [44] Valuation and Target Price - The report estimates a target market value of 2,958.2 billion yuan for FY2026, corresponding to a target price of 155 yuan per share [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rating downgrades in the convertible bond market from 2021 - 2024 showed high - frequency, seasonal, and industry - concentrated characteristics. Over 61% of downgrades were in June, with cyclical industries like industrial and materials dominating, and over 80% of downgraded entities being private enterprises in coastal developed areas. High - rating entities had lower downgrade risks [6]. - Rating adjustments drove market differentiation. High - growth sectors such as TMT, electronics, and non - ferrous metals had low downgrade risks, while industries like real estate, steel, and power equipment faced greater downgrade pressure. After a downgrade, convertible bond prices generally showed a "first decline then rise" pattern, and market sentiment was significantly affected by the rating window period [6]. - To deal with credit risks, a triple - strategy approach could be adopted: using equity - biased convertible bonds to hedge risks, seizing repair opportunities of undervalued low - price bonds, and using short - duration high - YTM bonds for defense [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rating Adjustment Review 3.1.1 Historical Rating Adjustments and Market Performance - From 2021 - 2024, there were 193 downgrades in the convertible bond market, accounting for 4.51% of all rating adjustments. Over 61% of them were in June. Industries such as industrial and materials were dominant, private enterprises accounted for over 80%, mainly in coastal areas like Guangdong and Jiangsu. Downgraded entities were generally of weak quality, with issuance ratings concentrated at AA and AA - [6][8][10]. - The broader market index often weakened in May and June. The CSI Convertible Bond Index usually had a phased decline before the release of rating adjustment announcements due to risk pre - screening by institutions, leading to a chain reaction of "forward - priced risk → wider credit spread → market correction" [16]. - After a downgrade, convertible bond prices generally showed a "first decline then rise" pattern. For example, Zhongzhuang Zhuan 2 and Ying 19 Convertible Bond rebounded about 1 month after the downgrade [19]. 3.1.2 Identification of Downgraded Convertible Bonds - Factors leading to rating downgrades included performance losses, weakened solvency, low industry prosperity, equity issues, and liquidity risks. For example, Lingnan Convertible Bond was downgraded multiple times due to a plunge in EBITDA margin to - 119% and a high short - term debt ratio [6][23][24]. 3.1.3 Rating Adjustments Showed Structural Differentiation - High - growth sectors such as TMT, electronics, and non - ferrous metals had strong profitability and low downgrade risks. For example, the computer industry had a 471.86% year - on - year increase in net profit, the electronics industry had a ROE of 6.27% and a 37.24% net profit growth, and the non - ferrous metals industry had a ROE of 11.3% and a 53.23% net profit growth [26]. - Traditional industries such as real estate, steel, and power equipment faced greater downgrade risks. The real estate industry had a 274% drop in net profit, the steel industry had a negative ROE, and the power equipment industry had a low ROE of 3.6% [28]. 3.2 How to Select Bonds Around the Rating Adjustment Window Period 3.2.1 Equity - linked Convertible Bonds Could Hedge Credit Risks - In the face of credit risk shocks, equity - biased convertible bonds showed stronger price resilience. For example, during the "20 Hongda Xingye SCP001" default in 2020, equity - biased convertible bonds rose while others declined [32]. 3.2.2 Low - price Convertible Bonds Presented a Layout Window - During the credit adjustment window period, the low - price index usually showed a "first decline then rise" return characteristic. In 2024, low - price convertible bonds initially underperformed but later achieved the highest cumulative return for the year. Currently, attention could be paid to undervalued but cash - flow - stable bonds [33]. 3.2.3 Layout of Short - duration High - YTM Convertible Bonds - Short - duration high - YTM convertible bonds with a remaining term of less than 2 years and positive YTM could be selected. For example, Wanshun Zhuan 2 in 2024 outperformed the market under the protection of the put - back clause [36]. 3.3 Post - market Allocation Suggestions - Focus on three types of opportunities: high - growth equity - biased convertible bonds such as Hao 24 Convertible Bond; low - price bonds with credit mispricing like Jingneng Convertible Bond; and short - duration high - YTM defensive bonds such as Lvyin Convertible Bond [40].