证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 26 日 3 月金股组合 股票代码 股票名称 1519.HK 极兔速递-W 中银晨会聚焦-20250326 601857.SH 中国石油 688019.SH 安集科技 ■重点关注 000680.SZ 山推股份 300073.SZ 当升科技 600600.SH 青岛啤酒 【宏观经济】1-2 月财政数据点评*陈琦 朱启兵 1-2 月公共财政收入同比小 幅下滑；财政支出向"惠民生"领域加速倾斜；广义财政支出靠前发力。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | | 3369.98 | (0.00) | | 深证成指 | | 10649.08 | (0.43) | | 沪深 | 300 | 3932.30 | (0.06) | | 中小 | 100 | 6637.14 | (0.36) | | 创业板指 | | 2145.48 | (0.33) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 3 月 25 日 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 7.11 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 2.7 12.7 0.7 25.2 相对上证综指 (0.5) 12.8 1.4 14.6 发行股数 (百万) 2,743.92 流通股 (百万) 2,146.65 总市值 (人民币 百万) 19,509.27 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 241.47 (11%) 1% 12% 24% 35% 47% Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 中远海特 上证综指 主要股东 中国远洋运输有限公司（%） 40.99 600428.SH 买入 《中远海特》20241107 《中远海特》20240905 《中远海特》20240509 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 交通运输：航运港口 证券分析师：王靖添 jingtian.wang@bocichina.com 证 ...

社会服务行业双周报 全年扩消费政策预期足，有望修复消费信心 前两交易周（2025.3.10-2025.3.21）社会服务板块上涨 2.49%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 9。社会服务板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.23pct。近日《提 振消费专项行动方案》颁布，多措并举下期待消费信心得以恢复。我们维持 行业 强于大市 评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 双周要闻 投资建议 《提振消费专项行动方案》出台，有望针对性的解决制约消费的突出矛 盾问题，带来较好的扩消费政策预期。我们建议关注后续业绩增长确定 性强的出行链及产业相关公司：黄山旅游、丽江股份、宋城演艺、岭南 控股、众信旅游、中青旅、海昌海洋公园、天目湖、长白山等；受益于 商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连锁酒店品牌君亭酒店、锦江酒 店、首旅酒店等；受益于促就业政策推动的科锐国际；跨境游市场恢复 有望推动机场免税的恢复和市内免税新政加速推出，建议关注中国中 免、王府井；承接餐饮、宴会需求复苏的同庆楼；本地生活消费老字号 品牌豫园股份；受益于商务复苏的会展品牌米奥会展、兰生股份；演艺 演出产业链公司锋尚文化、大丰实业。 社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating demand for hydrogen energy in China driven by energy conservation and carbon reduction needs, with significant policy support from both domestic and international fronts [5][6][7] - The securities industry is expected to see a net profit growth of 9.8% year-on-year in 2024, supported by low base effects and policy boosts, particularly in proprietary investment and wealth management [9][11] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The demand for hydrogen energy in China is accelerating due to energy conservation and carbon reduction needs, with the EU's FEU and CBAM policies set to officially take effect, creating clear demand for hydrogen-based fuels in shipping and chemical sectors [5][6] - The European legislation aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, with specific measures like CBAM and FEU encouraging renewable fuel applications [5] - The Chinese government has issued action plans to promote hydrogen energy applications across various industries, indicating a shift towards hydrogen as a key industrial raw material [6][7] - The cost of green hydrogen production is expected to decrease due to falling renewable energy costs, establishing a foundation for the growth of hydrogen applications in China [7] Securities Industry - A total of 21 listed securities firms have pre-disclosed their 2024 performance, with 20 firms expecting profit increases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [9][11] - The average daily trading volume for stock funds is projected to increase by 24.57% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in market activity [10] - The asset management business is expected to expand, with the total asset management scale of securities firms reaching 6.32 trillion yuan, a 6.67% increase from the beginning of the year [10] - The report suggests focusing on securities firms with strong financial technology layouts and wealth management capabilities, which are likely to show more performance elasticity [9][13]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 3 月 21 日 强于大市 社服与消费视角点评 1-2 月 国内宏观数据 社零平稳增长，提振消费行动或促消费意愿增长 国家统计局等部门公布了部分 2025 年 1-2 月国内宏观数据。其中，1-2 月社 零总额同比增长 4.0%，较 24 年 12 月增速提升；1-2 月餐饮收入同比增长 4.3%。1、2 月服务业 PMI 分别为 50.3%、50.0%。25 年开年消费数据表现 良好，且《政府工作报告》与近期《提振消费专项行动方案》多次强调促进 消费并加大政策支持力度，或有望促进消费信心及意愿加速恢复，我们维持 行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 ◼ 25 年前两月消费数据表现良好，且在提振消费政策支持下有望实现进一 步增长。我们建议关注有望受旅游出行消费需求复苏而实现业绩加速恢 复的旅游综合服务标的岭南控股、众信旅游，受益于商务和会展业复苏 的米奥会展；受益于商旅出行恢复的演艺、景区、酒店标的如天目湖、 丽江股份、宋城演艺、中青旅、锦江酒店、君亭酒店、首旅酒店等；本 土餐饮消费代表同庆楼；演艺演出产业链优质标的锋尚文化、大丰实业； 受益 ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 3 月 20 日 002033.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 9.64 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 6.9 12.0 5.7 0.1 相对深圳成指 (1.0) 11.2 3.5 (11.9) 发行股数 (百万) 549.49 流通股 (百万) 549.48 (18%) (11%) (3%) 4% 11% 18% Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 丽江股份 深圳成指 | 流通股 (百万) | 549.48 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 5,297.09 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 160.20 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 丽江玉龙雪山旅游开发有限责任公司 | 15.73 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 3 月 20 日收市价为标准 相关研究报 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 20 日 3 月金股组合 股票代码 股票名称 1519.HK 极兔速递-W 中银晨会聚焦-20250320 601857.SH 中国石油 688019.SH 安集科技 ■重点关注 000680.SZ 山推股份 300073.SZ 当升科技 600600.SH 青岛啤酒 000524.SZ 岭南控股 603986.SH 兆易创新 【交通运输】航空新周期系列点评之三*王靖添。近日，中共中央办公厅、 国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，明确提出扩大文体旅游消费。 我们认为，此举措有望带动出行需求，航空运输板块有望受益，特别是聚焦 特色旅游资源地区的支线航空运输需求有望稳步提升。 | 市场指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | | 3426.43 | (0.10) | | 深证成指 | | 10979.05 | (0.32) | | 沪深 | 300 | 4010.17 | 0.06 | | 中小 | 100 | 6832.90 | (0.21) | | 创业板指 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China Unicom has taken the lead in enhancing computing power, fully embracing AI, and is expected to undergo a value reassessment due to its technological transformation [1]. - The AI wave is anticipated to significantly benefit telecom operators from the growth in intelligent computing business and value reassessment, with a recommendation to focus on the three major operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [3]. - The report emphasizes that the intelligent computing business has become a crucial driver of revenue growth for China Unicom, with a projected revenue of RMB 389.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that telecom operators will benefit from the intelligent computing business, leading to revenue growth and value reassessment, recommending attention to the three major operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [3]. Performance Metrics - China Unicom's revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 389.6 billion, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, with a total profit of RMB 25.1 billion and a net profit of RMB 9 billion, up 10.5% year-on-year [5]. - The intelligent computing business revenue accounted for 24% of service revenue, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, while cloud revenue reached RMB 68.6 billion, up 17.1% year-on-year [5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - China Unicom's capital expenditure for 2024 is expected to be RMB 61.37 billion, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, while computing power investment is projected to increase by 19% [5]. - The company plans to further reduce fixed asset investment to RMB 55 billion in 2025, a decline of 10.38%, while continuing to increase computing power investment by 28% [5]. Industry Landscape - The report notes that the three major telecom operators are increasing their computing power infrastructure, with a total of 830,000 data center racks and a computing power scale exceeding 50 EFLOPS, doubling year-on-year [5]. - The demand for AI computing is expected to reshape the industry, transitioning telecom operators from traditional network providers to technology service companies, which may lead to a value reassessment [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [14]. Core Insights - The recent issuance of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" by the central government is expected to stimulate travel demand, particularly benefiting the regional aviation sector, especially in areas with unique tourism resources [1]. - The report suggests focusing on the leading regional airline, Huaxia Airlines, which holds a significant market share [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Over 70% of domestic airports in China are regional airports, yet they account for only 6% of passenger throughput. Regional aviation refers to short-distance, non-mainline routes between small and medium-sized cities, typically using aircraft with fewer than 110 seats and flying distances of 600-1200 kilometers [5]. - In 2024, there are 263 transport airports in mainland China, with 186 airports having an annual passenger throughput of less than 2 million, representing 70.72% of the total. These airports collectively handled 90.49 million passengers, accounting for only 6.2% of total civil aviation throughput [5]. Market Dynamics - Passenger throughput at regional airports has remained stable at around 90 million over the past five years. The throughput figures from 2019 to 2024 are 92.49 million, 94.16 million, 96.92 million, 71.94 million, 88.72 million, and 90.49 million respectively [8]. - In 2024, regional airports are expected to handle nearly 1 million takeoffs and landings, representing about 9.5% of total domestic airport operations, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [5]. Regional Distribution - Regional airports are distributed across 28 provinces in China, covering over 170 cities. The top three regions with the most regional airports are Southwest (41), Northwest (41), and Central South (29) [5]. - The report highlights that the current regional aviation demand is primarily concentrated in the central and western regions, which are rich in tourism resources. The government's new consumption plan is expected to enhance travel demand in these areas [5]. Competitive Landscape - In 2024, Huaxia Airlines leads the regional aviation market with a market share of 13.4%. The top ten airlines in the regional aviation market include China Eastern Airlines (12.9%), Southern Airlines (10.6%), and others, with the top ten airlines collectively holding 69.3% of the market [5][7].