Market Overview - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3387.57, up by 0.21% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also experienced gains of 0.44% and 0.83% respectively, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index declined by 0.22% [2][6] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6511.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.97 and a PB ratio of 1.24 [3] Industry Dynamics - Jinlongyu New Energy has secured an order for 100,000 solid-state batteries, marking a significant milestone in the high-performance customized battery market for drones [24] - Google announced a partnership with XREAL to launch the first AR glasses designed for the Android XR platform, indicating a pivotal moment for the AR industry [26] - The smartphone market in the Middle East saw a 4% decline in shipments in Q1 2025, attributed to slowing retail demand and cautious consumer behavior [27] Company Updates - David Medical (300314.SZ) has added new models of medical infant beds and completed the registration change for Class I medical devices, enhancing its product line and competitiveness [29] - Haisco (002653.SZ) received a drug registration certificate for its innovative drug Anruikefen injection, which is significant for pain management post-abdominal surgery [30] - Weiling Co., Ltd. (002667.SZ) successfully acquired a 74.3% stake in Hunan Linwu Jiayu Mining Co., indicating strategic expansion in the mining sector [33]

证券研究报告 吧 宏观报告 特朗普 2.0 时代的政策研究 海外市场专题 2025 年 05 月 07 日 中债综指-上证指数走势图 -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 中债综指 上证指数 张雯婷 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530524030002 zhangwenting30@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 此报告 考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 通过对比特朗普1.0时代与当下执政环境的不同及对美国当下现状的 分析，对特朗普 2.0 时期政治诉求及政策路径进行分析研判。 执政环境与 1.0 时期不同：1）更高的支持率。2024 年的大选中，特 朗普基本完成罕见的"三权合一"；2）忠诚度筛选机制下的"同质化 团队"。一是将政治忠诚度放在首位。二是团队与特朗普政治理念趋 同。三是对华强硬派有所增加；3）选民基础及核心诉求。特朗普赢得 2024 年选举主要得益于：MAGA 群体及对民主党失望倒戈的选民。 特朗普 2.0政策核心内涵：整体来看，我们认为其核心内涵可归纳为 以下三个方面。1）产业结构层面：引导制造业回归；2）经济层面： 财政减负；3）社会治理层面：意识形态的重塑 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3380.48, up 0.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.77% to 10249.17 [2][3] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 649702 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.93 and a PB ratio of 1.24 [3] Economic Insights - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points in May, with the 1-year LPR now at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, which is expected to reduce financing costs for businesses and consumers [4][15][16] - In the first quarter, the national high-tech zones achieved an industrial added value of 1.7 trillion, growing by 7.1% year-on-year [19][20] - By the end of 2024, the urbanization rate in China is projected to reach 67%, with 940 million people living in urban areas [21][22] Industry Dynamics - Pfizer has entered a licensing agreement with 3SBio for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential total payments of up to $4.8 billion [29][30] - JD's beauty segment saw a decline of 6.68% in sales in the first four months of 2025, with skincare products making up 65.3% of total sales [33] - The National Medical Products Administration reported that 97.79% of the 21362 batches of cosmetics tested in 2024 met compliance standards, with the lowest compliance rate in sunscreen products [34] Company Updates - Anhui Heli announced a cash dividend of 0.60 yuan per share, totaling 534.42 million yuan, with the ex-dividend date set for May 28, 2025 [43][44] - Weir Shares plans to change its name to "Haowei Group" to better reflect its strategic direction after acquiring a leading image sensor company [45][46] - Goldwind Technology signed a contract for the largest wind power project in Oman, with a total capacity of 234 MW [47][48] - Lens Technology reported over 250,000 global orders for its AI smart glasses, set to launch in June, leveraging its advanced manufacturing capabilities [49][50]

| 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 646880 | 506234 | 11.88 | 1.23 | | 深证成指 | 216579 | 183153 | 19.96 | 2.11 | | 创业板指 | 57266 | 45276 | 26.60 | 3.71 | | 科创 50 | 34342 | 22440 | 54.48 | 4.14 | | 北证 50 | 3130 | 2151 | 49.62 | 4.93 | | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 陈郁双 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530524110001 | | chenyushuang@hnchasing.com 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Synchronize with the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the overall pig output of listed pig companies decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year, with a total output of 16.69 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.25% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.27% [6] - The average selling price of commodity pigs in April was 14.95 yuan/kg, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.05% [6] - The report suggests that the supply of commodity pigs will be marginally relaxed in 2025, with expected average selling prices lower than last year, but quality pig companies are likely to maintain good profitability due to low costs and efficiency advantages [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a decline of 2.02% in the last month, but a growth of 5.13% over three months, and a decline of 6.81% over twelve months [4] Key Stock Analysis - For the key stock "Muyuan Foods," the estimated EPS for 2024 is 3.27 yuan with a PE ratio of 11.99, while for 2025 it is projected to be 2.64 yuan with a PE ratio of 14.87, and for 2026, it is expected to be 3.93 yuan with a PE ratio of 9.98, with a rating of "Increase Holding" [6] Sales Data - In April, the commodity pig output from listed companies was 13.73 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 2.88%, while the cumulative output from January to April was 52.35 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 18.91% [6] - The sales volume of piglets in April was 2.31 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 18.68%, but the cumulative sales from January to April showed a significant year-on-year increase of 241.77% for Muyuan Foods [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3367.46, down 0.40%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10179.60, down 0.07% [2][50] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6468.45 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.89 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.23 [3] Economic Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1065 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating ongoing liquidity management [24][25] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio of Chinese commercial banks stands at 1.51%, with a total non-performing loan balance of 3.4 trillion yuan [26][27] - The digital economy in China achieved a business revenue of 8.5 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [32] Company Dynamics - Zhejiang Securities (601878.SH) has become the controlling shareholder of Guodu Securities following a board restructuring, enhancing its market governance capabilities [35][36] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) reported a significant reduction in shareholding by a major shareholder, indicating potential shifts in ownership dynamics [38][39] - New Hope (000876.SZ) plans to add 3-4 million tons of overseas feed production capacity over the next 3-5 years, aiming to enhance its growth and profitability [41][42] - Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has repurchased shares worth over 4 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to shareholder value [44][45] Industry Trends - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary easing of tariffs, which may provide a short-term boost to the export chain and related industries [9][15] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to drive policy support for sectors such as health, culture, and tourism, enhancing service consumption [16][52] - The engineering machinery sector in Hunan has seen six companies listed among the top 100 suppliers, indicating a strong regional presence in this industry [48]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue in a phase of volatility, with sector rotation expected to persist. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% to close at 3367.46 points during the week of May 12-16, 2025, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.38% [8][18][27] - The report highlights that the recent phase of U.S.-China trade negotiations has led to a temporary easing of trade tensions, which is expected to provide a short-term boost to the export chain and restore trade confidence [21][27] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors a balanced allocation strategy, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from domestic demand expansion, such as service consumption and high-dividend stocks [27][28] Group 2 - The report notes that the financial data for April 2025 shows a significant increase in social financing, with a total of 16.34 trillion yuan, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the demand for credit remains weak, indicating a need for further economic stimulus [22] - The report mentions that the U.S. inflation data remains stable, with the April CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, which is slightly lower than the previous value of 2.4%. This stability in inflation may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth, as highlighted in a recent meeting led by Premier Li Qiang, which aims to strengthen the domestic circulation of the economy [26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [1][6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing performance pressure due to intensified competition in the chemical products sector, but it is expanding its operations in anticipation of future gains [1][5]. - The company has a stable market position, with a significant share of over 40% in core customer supply, despite the competitive landscape [5][6]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in product profitability as the worst phase of industry competition is believed to be over [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 39.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 65.91% [5]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 18.46%, down 4.36 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 2.60%, down 5.04 percentage points [5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 43.98 billion yuan, 49.17 billion yuan, and 54.54 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 2.14 billion yuan, 3.36 billion yuan, and 4.34 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s adhesive product sales volume reached approximately 285,600 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.23%, driven by stable releases of photovoltaic and electronic adhesive capacities [5]. - The company’s sales revenue in the transportation sector reached 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.73%, capitalizing on the growth opportunities in the new energy vehicle market [5]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 25-30 times for 2025, reflecting its growth potential despite current challenges [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of polyurethane raw materials and other downstream derivative products in China, with a focus on research, production, and sales [5]. - The company achieved a revenue of 68.57 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.77 billion yuan, up 38.72% year-on-year [5]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 75.51 billion yuan in 2025, 83.67 billion yuan in 2026, and 92.74 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits of 1.83 billion yuan, 2.14 billion yuan, and 2.38 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue 62.96 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.27 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue 68.57 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.77 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue 75.51 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.83 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 83.67 billion yuan, Net Profit 2.14 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue 92.74 billion yuan, Net Profit 2.38 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.82 yuan by 2027 [4][6]. Market Position - The company holds a competitive edge in the polyurethane industry, with its CPU products recognized as a national manufacturing champion and its combination ether products as a provincial champion in Shandong [5]. - The domestic production capacity for polyether polyols is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% over the next five years, indicating a robust market environment [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Leading the Market" [12] Core Viewpoints - The battery production in April 2025 reached 118.2 GWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 49.0% [5] - Battery sales also increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 73.5%, indicating strong demand [5] - Exports of batteries grew by 64.2% year-on-year, reflecting the industry's expanding international market [5] - The top three companies in battery installation volume are CATL, BYD, and Zhongchuang Xinhang, with market shares of 39.44%, 26.35%, and 7.02% respectively [5] Summary by Sections Production and Sales Data - In April 2025, the total battery production was 118.2 GWh, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.03% but a significant year-on-year increase of 49.0% [5] - The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 80.0% of the total, with a year-on-year growth of 68.6% [5] - Battery sales reached 118.1 GWh in April, with a month-on-month increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 73.5% [5] Export Performance - Total battery exports in April were 22.3 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [5] - The export volume of power batteries was 14.5 GWh, representing 64.8% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 53.6% [5] Market Dynamics - The demand for batteries remains strong, supported by the production and sales data [11] - The competitive landscape is stable, with leading companies like CATL and BYD maintaining their market positions [5][11] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, with recommendations to focus on leading companies such as CATL and Zhongke Electric [11]