[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 固定收益专题 专题报告 2025 年 04 月 16 日 固定收益专题 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 苏恩民 资格编号：S0120524120001 邮箱：suem＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 固定收益专题 信用债行情或"由短及长" —— 4 月信用策略 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 短端信用利差快速压缩。3 月以来，受资金面波动、权益市场、关税政策影响，利 率债市场大幅波动。对比来看，信用债市场相对稳定，信用利差仅在 3 月初小幅上 行后就重回下行趋势，短端表现更好：截至 4 月 11 日，1Y、3Y、5Y 中短票收益 率较 3 月初分别下行 28BP、18BP、12BP，信用利差分别压缩 17BP、12BP、 4BP；期限利差小幅走阔，AAA 中票 5Y-3Y 利差为 12BP，较 3 月初走阔 6BP， 处于近三年 16.8%的历史分位。对比来看，关税政策影响下 4 月初利率快速下行， 信用债表现弱于长久期利率债：4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in satellite core networks and is expected to benefit from the growth of its overseas business [4][5]. - The recent signing of a framework agreement for a $1.5 billion project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to drive revenue growth [4]. - The company is actively optimizing its overseas market layout, with increasing demand for optical infrastructure globally [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected total revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated at 949 million, 1,251 million, and 1,588 million yuan respectively, with a net profit forecast of 26 million, 113 million, and 176 million yuan [5][7]. - The expected year-on-year revenue growth rates are 66.1% for 2023, 7.3% for 2024, 31.8% for 2025, and 26.9% for 2026 [7]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 40.5% in 2023 to 52.5% by 2026 [7]. Project Highlights - The company has secured multiple overseas projects, including significant contracts in Angola, Mauritania, and Bangladesh, indicating a robust international presence [4][5]. - The satellite internet sector is showing initial demand, with the company being a key supplier for the "Tiantong-1" project core network [5]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative increase compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 5.60%, 21.90%, and 6.35% over the past months [3][4].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 买入（维持） 所属行业：通信/通信设备 当前价格(元)：33.18 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 1.《震有科技(688418.SH)：卫星核心 网领先企业，有望受益出海业务增 长》，2025.3.13 震有科技(688418.SH) 2025 年 04 月 15 日 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M -26% 0% 26% 51% 77% 103% 129% 154% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 震有科技 沪深300 绝对涨幅(%) 5.60 21.90 6.35 相对涨幅(%) 11.72 26.41 7.90 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 震有科技（688418.SH）：刚果 总包项目落成，海外业绩增长启 动 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件： 4 月 15 日，震有科技发布《关于签署总包工程框架协议的公告》。公司与刚 果民主共和国光纤公司签订了关于"刚果民主共和国国家骨干光纤宽带网络项目" ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 紫光国微 沪深300 | 绝对涨幅(%) | 0.99 | 9.09 | 17.91 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅(%) | 7.16 | 13.65 | 19.51 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 紫光国微(002049.SZ) 2025 年 04 月 15 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：电子/半导体 当前价格(元)：70.59 证券分析师 李宏涛 2 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 紫光国微（002049.SZ）：特种信息化 加速，汽车电子打开新增长极 公司首次覆盖 紫光国微（002049.SZ） 投资要点 | [Table_Base] 股票数据 | | [Table_Finance] 主要财务数据及预测 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the domestic information technology innovation industry (信创) is experiencing sustained prosperity due to the resonance of policies and external disturbances, with four major industry giants enhancing the domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report outlines the historical performance of the 信创 index, indicating that from March 1, 2018, to April 11, 2025, the index has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 30 percentage points [21][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: 信创 as a Necessity for Independent Innovation - The 信创 industry is a strategic response to the need for self-reliance in information technology, evolving since the 1980s [10] - The industry comprises four main areas: basic hardware, basic software, application software, and information security, with significant contributions from cloud services and system integration [14][4] - Major players like China Electronics, China Electronics Technology Group, Huawei, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences have formed a relatively complete ecosystem through investments and strategic partnerships [17][4] Section 2: Stock Price Review - The report analyzes the stock price movements of the 信创 index, highlighting that external shocks have been catalysts while supporting policies and industry implementations determine market performance [18] - From 2018 to 2019, the 信创 index saw significant growth due to the U.S.-China trade tensions, with cumulative gains of 35.03% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [27][19] - The period from 2020 to 2021 marked a peak in the index, followed by a slowdown in 2021 due to a lack of major policy catalysts [31][28] - The years 2022 to 2023 reflected a decline in the index, with a cumulative drop of 26.23%, although it slightly outperformed the broader market [33][32] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the 信创 sector, including China Software, Dameng Data, and others, as well as domestic industrial software and computing power companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of special information technology and the growth in automotive electronics, which presents new growth opportunities [4]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the special integrated circuit sector, which is expected to see marginal improvements due to policy support and increasing domestic demand for chips [4][40]. - The automotive electronics segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with the company launching new products that meet high safety standards [4][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a rich history of over 24 years in the electronic components industry, formed through multiple acquisitions leading to a diversified product portfolio [8][11]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring, with a focus on high-tech sectors such as special integrated circuits, smart security chips, and quartz crystal frequency devices [11][15]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The report notes that the domestic integrated circuit industry still relies heavily on imports, indicating a substantial opportunity for domestic companies to fill this gap [30][34]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the special integrated circuit market, with high entry barriers and a comprehensive product range [43][45]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 55 billion, 67 billion, and 83 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 12 billion, 16 billion, and 22 billion yuan in the same years [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is expected to be lower than that of comparable companies, suggesting potential undervaluation [4]. Product and Technology Development - The company has made significant advancements in smart chip technology, particularly in automotive applications, with a focus on high-performance microcontrollers and safety standards [27][43]. - Continuous investment in research and development has led to a growing portfolio of intellectual property, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [26][27].

证券分析师 张浩 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 深度报告 2025 年 04 月 15 日 宏观专题 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 关税背后"分裂"的美国 特朗普及关税系列研究（一） [Table_Summary] 摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：特朗普就任后积极颁布了一系列政策，但未能取得较好的效果和反馈， 其工作认可率持续下跌。特别是在所谓"对等关税"协议出台后，遭受到了来自共 和党内部及民主党的多重批评，选民对特朗普的信任似乎也在动摇。本文将从选民 角度出发分析特朗普背后支持者的行为特征，结合特朗普的施政效果来审视是否 能够满足选民的诉求，水能载舟亦能覆舟，相比于竞选时期的"美好前景"，若"货 不对板"或者"预期落空"广泛出现，支持特朗普的选民基础可能会迅速瓦解，对 其政策实施形成掣肘。 精准回应选民需求助力特朗普赢得大选 在经济政策上，特朗普承诺通过对外加征关税来促进制造业回流，对内减税以减轻 中低收入群体负担，并推动石油开采、重振工业以增加就业、提高工资水平。在通 胀问 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|金融产品专题 深度报告 2025 年 4 月 14 日 金融产品专题 证券分析师 温瑞鹏 资格编号：S0120523060004 邮箱：wenrp＠tebon.com.cn 路景仪 资格编号：S0120524070002 邮箱：lujy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 金融产品专题 新能源行业基金：β之后，注重细分 行业景气变化及个股α [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 ——主题基金系列研究之四 A 股新能源阶段划分：将 2018/1/1-2025/3/31 划分成 6 个上涨和 6 个下跌阶段， 我们发现：2022 年 8 月 18 日（下跌阶段 4）至 2024 年 9 月 23 日（下跌阶段 6） 各个细分行业的个股涨跌标准差相对较小。我们认为，基金经理应更关注β而非 α。但 2024 年 9 月 24 日之后，各个板块的标准差变大，个股涨跌幅差异变大。 通过分析公募基金在新能源行业里的持仓发现，基金重仓股逐步分化。 新能源被动类基金的投资方式：由于新能源细分行业较多，所处景气阶段有所差 异，所以应根据基金的行 ...

Market Stability Mechanism - The establishment of an "internal stability long-term mechanism" in the capital market is expected to be gradually enhanced through the support of a quasi-"stabilization fund" [4] - The Central Huijin Investment Ltd. has positioned itself as the "national team" in the capital market, emphasizing its role in stabilizing the market by increasing holdings in ETFs [4] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been introduced, including adjustments to insurance fund investment ratios to allow for greater equity asset allocation [9] Macroeconomic Data Insights - High-frequency macro data indicates an increase in the prosperity of real estate, steel, and transportation sectors, while the petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials sectors are still in need of recovery [4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars have increased by 10.45% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [16] - The commercial crude oil inventory stands at 442,345 thousand barrels, reflecting a decrease of 3.26% year-on-year [16] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on domestic policies that mitigate tariff disruptions, while the stock market should monitor the U.S. tariff actions and the construction of market stabilization forces [4] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is highlighted as a key observation window for potential policy directions [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain low volatility in interest rates until domestic policies addressing tariff disruptions are implemented [4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, ineffective policy implementation, and slower-than-anticipated economic recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab (09688.HK) [2] Core Views - Zai Lab's drug Efgartigimod shows strong potential in the treatment of Myasthenia Gravis (MG) with rapid onset and long-term efficacy, establishing its position as a Best-in-Class (BIC) therapy [8][11] - The FDA has approved the pre-filled subcutaneous injection form of Efgartigimod, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [25][26] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of $564 million in 2025 and $1.357 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 41.35% and 62.46% respectively [7][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Zai Lab's stock price is currently at HKD 22.20, with a market capitalization of HKD 24.45 billion [2][7] Financial Data and Forecast - Total shares outstanding: 1,101.28 million - Revenue projections: $267 million in 2023, $399 million in 2024, $564 million in 2025, $835 million in 2026, and $1.357 billion in 2027 - Net profit projections: -$335 million in 2023, -$257 million in 2024, -$166 million in 2025, $17 million in 2026, and $168 million in 2027 - Gross margin expected to improve from 62.94% in 2024 to 69.45% in 2027 [7][40] Drug Development Insights - Efgartigimod has shown rapid efficacy in clinical trials, with 40% of patients achieving minimal symptom expression (MSE) within the first treatment cycle [8][14] - Long-term studies indicate consistent efficacy and safety, with 89% of patients showing significant improvement after 11 treatment cycles [21][22] - The drug is positioned to treat multiple autoimmune diseases, expanding its market potential beyond MG [37][32] Competitive Landscape - Despite the emergence of several competing biologics in the MG treatment space, Efgartigimod's sales growth remains robust, with projected global sales of approximately $2.2 billion in 2024 [32][34]