Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company has announced a share repurchase plan with a total amount between RMB 1 billion and RMB 2 billion, aimed at supporting employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [6] - The Inner Mongolia base has completed its production ramp-up, currently producing over 9,000 tons of olefins daily, which translates to an annualized output of 3.29 million tons, exceeding the designed capacity of 3 million tons per year [7] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in quarterly profits as it enters a phase of full production, with a positive outlook on cost improvements due to falling coal prices [7] - The company is expanding its growth potential with a new coal-to-olefins project in Xinjiang, which is expected to have a capacity of 4 million tons per year [7] - The share repurchase reflects management's confidence in the company's future growth and aims to align the stock price with its intrinsic value [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 14.305 billion, RMB 16.972 billion, and RMB 18.754 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 125.7%, 18.6%, and 10.5% respectively [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be RMB 1.95, RMB 2.31, and RMB 2.56 [7] - Revenue is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 32.983 billion in 2024 to RMB 61.470 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 33.1% in 2024 to 42.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [9]

Inflation Data Summary - In April, the CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to +2.3%, while month-on-month it increased by +0.2% from a previous value of -0.1%[3] - The core CPI (excluding food and energy) remained stable year-on-year at 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2% compared to +0.1% previously[4] - The April CPI data was below market expectations, primarily influenced by a further decline in energy prices[5] Food and Energy Prices - Food inflation month-on-month was -0.1%, down 0.5% from the previous value, while year-on-year it was 2.8%, a decrease of 0.2%[5] - Energy prices fell further to -3.5% year-on-year from -3.2% the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of +0.7%[5] - The significant drop in egg prices (-12.7%) contributed to a 1.6% decrease in the inflation of meat, poultry, fish, and eggs[5] Core CPI Insights - Core goods inflation year-on-year recorded 0.2%, up from 0.0% previously, while month-on-month inflation was 0.1% compared to -0.1%[6] - Core services inflation slightly decreased to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.7% in March, with a month-on-month increase to 0.3%[6] - The contribution rates to CPI from core services, core goods, food, and energy were +2.172%, +0.039%, +0.372%, and -0.273% respectively[6] Future Inflation Expectations - The CPI is expected to recover moderately, with a forecasted year-end CPI of approximately 3.28% for December 2025[6] - The probability of the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) exceeding 2.5% in the next 12 months has decreased significantly from 63.66% in March to 5.40% in April 2025[6] - Risks include potential secondary inflation, slower-than-expected economic progress, and geopolitical uncertainties[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant reduction in bilateral tariffs between China and the US, which is expected to improve demand for industrial metals and support price recovery [6] - Copper prices are anticipated to rise due to declining inventory levels and improved demand forecasts, with SHFE copper inventory dropping approximately 55.9% to 80,705 tons as of May 9, 2025 [6] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases driven by limited supply and improving demand, particularly in transportation and power sectors [6] - The report emphasizes the recovery of export channels for coal, coke, and steel, with a notable indirect export of steel products to the US [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance comparison showing a 29% increase in the non-ferrous metals sector compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Related Research - The report references several related studies, including a weekly report on non-ferrous metals and specific company analyses, indicating a positive outlook for gold and silver prices [4][5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for copper include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Western Mining, while for aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, and China Hongqiao are suggested [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The tariff exemption greatly exceeded market expectations, and the tariff trading is capricious, with the consensus expectation likely to reverse. Equities have odds, while bonds require caution. A robust trading framework should be established to guide investments in the year of tariffs. The impact of tariffs on the bond market should also be closely monitored [5][12]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Analyze the So - called "Reciprocal Tariffs"? - The most common analogy is to compare the "reciprocal tariffs" to the continuation of the 2018 China - US trade war, which affects the risk appetite of equity assets and the counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. The intuitive "fast thinking" is that increased tariffs lead to reduced exports, affecting GDP and shifting the interest rate center downward [13]. - However, "comparing to 2018" is a view mainly held by A - share investors. The US economic and investment circles emphasize the 1930s Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act, but its reference value is questionable. The current trade war is a cyclical change in US trade policy, and tariffs are also a political movement to some extent [15][16]. - The market's previous over - pessimistic pricing and the current view that tariffs have quickly failed may oversimplify the complexity of the political impact of tariffs [20]. 2. The Cyclical Perspective of US Trade Policy - Since its establishment, the US federal government has been closely related to tariffs, with the initial goals of maintaining fiscal balance and protecting manufacturing. Economic and industrial changes lead to changes in tariff policies under the political cycle [7][21]. - Tariff policy is a policy that emphasizes regions rather than parties. Trade concept changes often play an important role in the six party realignments in US history [23]. - The current differences in the Trump administration are normal in US democratic politics and do not necessarily mean the failure of the tariff bill. In 2025, few technology companies, ordinary consumers, or manufacturing unions support the current radical tariff bill [26]. 3. The Economic Results of Trade Policy: Doubtful and Unimportant - The economic impact of trade policy can be understood from two aspects: its impact on the economy determines the direction and magnitude of the market, and its feedback on trade policy affects the market rhythm. The economic results of tariffs, both positive and negative, are doubtful [32]. - Historical evidence shows that trade protection policies have limited effects on enhancing industrial competitiveness and may have negative impacts on consumers and the overall economy [37]. 4. How to Set up a Robust and Investment - Guiding Trading Framework in the Year of Tariffs? - Step 1: Set a baseline for the possible final outcome of tariffs by reviewing the historical cyclical tariff policies of the US. - Step 2: Make qualitative predictions, such as the dollar appreciation ratio, the intervention rhythm of administrative departments and Congress, the frequency of opposition cases or lawsuits, and the counter - impact of public opinion and asset prices on tariff policy intensity. - Step 3: Conduct long - short trading if the implied expectation of short - term market fluctuations exceeds the set baseline, and adjust the baseline expectation if new developments deviate from the assumptions [39]. 5. Back to the Domestic Bond Market: Pay Attention to the Technical Attenuation of Tariff Factors - Since March, the bond market has experienced "oversold rebound → trading tariff factors → correction of tariff factors". In May, the bond market is likely to return to the main logic of March, and the reasons behind the "liability shortage" may not have simply ended [7][41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 67.09 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable supply-demand balance in the polyester filament industry, with a projected demand growth of 18% in 2024 [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to add two new polyester filament production lines in 2025, which will further enhance its market position [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.3% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 1.6% [6][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was reported at 5.6%, maintaining stability compared to the previous year [6][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.93 yuan, with a net profit forecast of 1.415 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.6% [9][10]. Production and Sales Summary - In 2024, the company’s sales volumes for POY, FDY, and DTY were 5.25 million tons, 1.5 million tons, and 810 thousand tons, respectively, showing increases of 13.4%, 5.5%, and 5.6% year-on-year [6]. - The company’s polyester filament production capacity reached 8.05 million tons by the end of 2024, securing over 12% market share, making it one of the largest manufacturers in China [6][7]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the polyester filament industry is experiencing a slowdown in production capacity growth, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected to drop from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026) [7]. - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with larger companies increasing their market share while smaller players exit the market [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 101.31 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China and is expected to benefit from industry recovery and new capacity investments in regions like Fujian and Anhui [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 25.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 611 million yuan [6] - The company’s polyester production capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, and it plans to add two new production lines in 2025, which are expected to enhance profitability [6][9] Industry Outlook - The growth rate of polyester filament production capacity is expected to slow down significantly, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The demand for polyester filament is anticipated to increase by 18% year-on-year in 2024, with an absolute increment of nearly 5 million tons [7] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with the market share of the top six companies increasing from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher industry concentration [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 67.09 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [6]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its production capacity, with plans to add two new polyester filament production lines in 2025, which will support ongoing revenue growth [7][9]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in production capacity growth, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected to decrease from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026) [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and a net profit of 355 million yuan, up 77.9% year-on-year [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 14.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit of 306 million yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [6]. - The company’s polyester filament production capacity reached 8.05 million tons by the end of 2024, with a market share exceeding 12% [6][7]. Production and Sales Insights - In 2024, the company’s sales volumes for POY, FDY, and DTY were 5.25 million tons, 1.5 million tons, and 810 thousand tons, representing year-on-year increases of 13.4%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [6]. - The average market prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in 2024 were 7,457 yuan, 8,019 yuan, and 8,901 yuan per ton, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.415 billion yuan, 1.860 billion yuan, and 2.160 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 28.6%, 31.5%, and 16.1% [9]. - The overall profitability is expected to improve, with gross margins projected to increase from 5.6% in 2024 to 6.6% by 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 101.31 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China and is expected to benefit from industry recovery and new capacity investments in regions like Fujian and Anhui [9] - The report anticipates a steady increase in net profit for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 2.02 billion yuan, 2.99 billion yuan, and 3.41 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.42 yuan [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 25.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 611 million yuan [6] - The company’s polyester production capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, and it plans to add two new production lines in 2025, which are expected to enhance profit margins [6][9] Industry Outlook - The growth rate of polyester filament production capacity is expected to slow down, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026, down from 7.1% from 2017 to 2023 [7] - The demand for polyester filament is projected to increase by 18% in 2024, with an absolute increment of nearly 5 million tons, indicating a positive market outlook [7] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with the market share of the top six companies increasing from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, suggesting a more favorable competitive environment for larger manufacturers [7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 2025 年 5 月 12 日 固定收益点评 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 严伶怡 资格编号：S0120524110003 邮箱：yanly＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 货币资金面 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周（5.6-5.9，下同）共有 16178 亿元逆回购到期。周二至周五央行分别投放逆 回购 4050、1955、1586、770 亿元，期间累计投放 8361 亿元逆回购，全周净回 笼流动性 7817 亿元。本周资金价格下行，截至 5 月 9 日，R001、R007、DR001、 DR007 分别为 1.52%、1.58%、1.49%、1.54%，较 4 月 30 日分别变动-33.21BP、 -25.91BP、-29.45BP、-25.77BP，分别位于 22%、9%、20%、3%历史分位数。 本周资金主要融出方净融入规模减少。本周资金主要融出方净融入规模减少。主要 融出机构（大行/政策行与股份行）全周（5.6-5.9）净融入-4639 亿元，与前一周 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a leader in IT operations monitoring and observability in China, with a focus on upgrading its main business and enhancing profitability through new product launches [5][9]. - The new product, Bonree ONE, is expected to enter a growth phase, benefiting from partnerships with Huawei and ByteDance [5][9]. - The company has shown signs of revenue stabilization and growth, with projected revenues increasing significantly in the coming years [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the first A-share listed firm in the application performance monitoring and observability (APMO) sector in China, holding a market share of 19.8% as of H2 2024 [5][9]. - It has a strong technical foundation with numerous patents and software copyrights, indicating its advanced technological capabilities [9][19]. 2. Business Performance - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to macroeconomic fluctuations and market competition in recent years, but has shown signs of recovery since 2023 with the launch of Bonree ONE [5][26]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 141 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [5][26]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was -115 million yuan, a decrease of 8% compared to the previous year, but the first quarter of 2025 showed a narrowing of losses [5][26]. 3. Product Development - Bonree ONE represents a significant upgrade from previous products, integrating various monitoring capabilities and utilizing AI technology for enhanced data analysis [5][13]. - The product is designed to be compatible with heterogeneous computing environments, addressing the growing demand for cloud computing and AI applications [5][13]. 4. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for IT observability solutions driven by digital transformation and the complexity of IT systems [5][40]. - The APM market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the company poised to capture a larger share due to its innovative products and strategic partnerships [5][50]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 172 million, 234 million, and 301 million yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [5][26]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2025, with net profits expected to improve substantially in the following years [5][26].