证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 玉米利多兑现 维持低多思路不变 猪价震荡磨底 盘面弱势震荡整理 现货低位震荡 鸡蛋多空分歧加大 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：玉米利多兑现 维持低多思路不变 【重要资讯】 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示28日深加工企业收购价小幅上涨。东北地区深加工企业收购价2056元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价 2280元/吨，较前一日涨9元/吨。 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示28日北港稳定、南港偏弱。锦州港15%水二等新季玉米收购价2210-2230元/吨左右，较前一日持平；蛇口港成交价2390元/吨， 较前一日跌10元/吨。 3、28日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减2300张，共计60215张。 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至11月28日，山东地区小麦-玉米价差为+240元/吨，较前一日持平。 【市场逻辑】 短期来看，华北地区连阴雨对产量及粮质影响 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday; the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices weakened. New cotton warehousing reached its peak, and commercial inventories entered a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remained dull, and the operating rate did not show an obvious decline. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a sideways movement [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 284,007 lots, and the open interest was 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for January, 13,595 yuan/ton for May, and 13,715 yuan/ton for September. The settlement price of the ICE December contract was 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract was 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract was 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new 31 - grade machine - picked cotton with double 29 and less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that the downstream sales had slowed down recently, the finished product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Trading Strategy - Close the previously held call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options on the 05 contract with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View - The methanol futures price showed an upward trend on Thursday night, with the spot price in the East China mainstream area also rising. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, inventory, demand, and overseas news. With the news of overseas Iranian device shutdowns and port destocking, the methanol market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2070 - 2160. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 6 yuan to 2123 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China mainstream area rose by 17 yuan to 2105 yuan/ton. The long - position holdings decreased by 23,122 lots to 652,000 lots, and the short - position holdings increased by 39,773 lots to 784,400 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate was 89.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The overseas methanol operating rate was 73.2%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **Inventory**: The total methanol port inventory in China was 1363,500 tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 80,300 tons, and that in South China decreased by 35,500 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.19% [1] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.34%. The olefin operating rate was 91%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the methyl chloride operating rate was 80%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the acetic acid operating rate was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.9%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **External Factors**: The end of the US government shutdown, the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - According to market news, there were reports of continued shutdowns of Iranian devices overseas, with a total of 6 production lines with a capacity of 9.9 million tons shut down. This week, the ports destocked, while the production areas had a slight inventory build - up. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13%. It is expected that 3 MTO devices will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. The methanol market will be bullishly oscillating under the influence of overseas news. Future focus should be on the port inventory destocking amplitude and the start - stop of Iranian devices [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Black (Coking Coal and Coke) Sector: Bearish [1] 2. Core View - The coking coal and coke market sentiment continues to weaken following the fundamentals. The double - coking market is waiting for the winter storage in December to potentially improve the supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Key Points from Different Aspects Market Performance - Coking coal main contract (Jm2601) closed at 1071.0, down 1.24% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1057.0, down 1.31% compared to the daytime session closing. Coke main contract (J2601) closed at 1607.0, down 0.74% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1570.0, down 2.30% compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. The goal is to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 billion - level consumption hotspots [1] Auction Information - On November 11, 2025, in the auction of Qinxin lean coal in Qinxin Group, Changzhi, Shanxi, the starting price was 1480 yuan/ton, with 4000 tons sold at 1480 yuan/ton and 36000 tons unsold. The previous auction on November 26 had a starting price of 1530 yuan/ton, with 300 tons sold at 1530 yuan/ton and 2700 tons unsold. The average transaction price decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - On November 27, 2025, in the auction of coking coal from Zhujiazhuang Mine of Liliu Group in Lvliang, Shanxi, the starting price was 1500 yuan/ton, and 2000 tons were all sold at 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton. The previous auction on November 3 had a starting price of 1350 yuan/ton, and 3000 tons were all sold at 1600 - 1680 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 135 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The coking coal spot market remains weak. This week, the raw coal output of 523 mines decreased, and the inventory reached a high level. Downstream demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, with the iron - making water output decreasing by 16000 tons to 2346800 tons this week. The steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35%, a new low this year [1] Trading Strategy - For coking coal, the support level of the main contract has moved down. The support for the main contract is at 1030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is at 1100 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" [2] Report's Core View - The price of pure benzene is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and future US dollar pure benzene market transaction prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped 16 yuan to 5436 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5320 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the spot price in Shandong was 5245 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). Long positions decreased by 407 lots to 16,300 lots, and short positions increased by 116 lots to 19,100 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In October, China's pure benzene production was 1.9363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In November, the planned maintenance was 50,000 tons, with limited supply reduction. In October, the pure benzene import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January, affecting 600,000 tons of pure benzene production capacity [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the sample ports in Jiangsu was 164,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%; a year - on - year increase of 39,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.20%. During the statistical period, about 45,000 tons arrived, 12,000 tons were unloading and not included in the statistics, and about 28,000 tons were picked up. The visible ship arrivals in the next period are about 105,000 tons, but considering the berth unloading capacity, the expected arrival is 60,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 68.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of phenol was 79%, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 88.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the operating rate of aniline was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 55.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%. Caprolactam factories have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there may be a reduction in pure benzene demand in December and January [2] - Other: A factory in Shandong plans to shut down its disproportionation unit at the beginning of December due to low disproportionation processing margins, with a monthly production decline of about 50%. The international oil price rose slightly. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2601 contract rose 2.3 to 445.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 451.6 yuan/barrel at night. The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppress the temporarily warming market sentiment [2] Market Logic - Recently, the gasoline cracking profit in Europe and the United States has declined, and the blending oil demand has weakened. The pure benzene port has accumulated inventory this week, and it is expected that the East China port will continue the inventory accumulation trend in the short - term. The operating rate of phenol in the demand side has rebounded significantly, and the weighted operating rate of downstream products has increased. The short - term price is mainly volatile [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a short - term volatile trading mindset [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for precious metals is that they may experience wide - range oscillations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metals Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.02% at 946.90 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.29% to 12490 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of November 27, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 1045.43 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, also remained unchanged at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1% [1]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes showed that the Governing Council's assessment of the inflation outlook remained largely unchanged; the outlook was still unclear, and this uncertainty could also be a reason to keep interest rates unchanged. Most members believed that the inflation outlook faced two - way risks [1]. Market Logic - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, slightly lower than the estimated 225,000, but the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million, indicating increasing difficulty for the unemployed to find re - employment. - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises on average lost 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. - The latest weak economic data has kept the probability of a Fed rate cut in December above 80%. On November 27, the US dollar index fluctuated widely horizontally, closing at 99.55. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, and COMEX silver rose slightly. Precious metals may oscillate slightly more in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals may experience wide - range oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On Thursday, iron ore closed up and closed down at night [1] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% The total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [1] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work with relevant departments to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 855,710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7% The total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25% The weekly consumption was 888,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 2.3% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - During the policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December This week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 160,000 tons The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [1] Trading Strategy - Maintain the view that the short - term trend is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Oscillation" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the macro - policy vacuum period, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and during the night session, rebar closed up while hot - rolled coils closed down [2] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [2] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost assessment of disorderly price competition [2] - From January to October, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7%; the total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25%; the weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [2] - In December 2025, the production plan of household air conditioners was 14.11 million units, a 22.3% decrease compared with the actual figure of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 8.13 million units, a decrease of 8.2%; the production plan of washing machines was 7.94 million units, a decrease of 1.9% [2] Market Logic - During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. This week, rebar production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. Overall, supply and demand were both weak [2] Trading Strategy - Maintain the previous view: rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate. The first pressure level for the rebar main contract is 3150, and the 3000 level is still a strong support. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or hold an empty position [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be oscillatory, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening lower. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.01%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01%. The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose in the morning session and then declined, continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, closing down 0.01% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, a slight decline from 1.80 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1][2] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 56.4 billion yuan [1] - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 1.01 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 2.20% [1] - **Industrial Enterprise Data**: From January to October, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (1 - 9 months: 2.4%, 2024: 2.1%); the total profit was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (1 - 9 months: 3.2%, 2024: - 3.3%). In October, due to factors such as a higher base in the same period last year and a rapid increase in financial expenses, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [1] - **Automobile Consumption Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce will promote pilot reforms in automobile circulation and consumption, expand the circulation of second - hand cars, and expand the automobile aftermarket [1] - **Government Meeting**: The State Council executive meeting on November 27 listened to the report on the comprehensive supervision of promoting high - quality development, arranged to promote the provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance, reviewed and approved the draft "Regulations on Promoting National Reading", and discussed the draft amendment to the "Certified Public Accountant Law of the People's Republic of China" [1] Market Logic - The increase in the base in the same period last year and the rapid growth of financial expenses led to a 5.5% year - on - year decline in the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in October. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 58.0%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and the same as at the end of September. The average collection period of accounts receivable of manufacturing enterprises above designated size was 71.2 days, an increase of 2.8 days year - on - year and 0.8 days from the end of September [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 19 ...