Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Core View - The overall performance of the coking coal spot market remained weak last week. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. Although the downward range slowed down last week, there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the closing price of the coking coal main contract was 1,067.0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.26%. The closing price of the coke main contract was 1,574.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [1] Important Information - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In October, the bond market issued a total of 635.746 billion yuan of various bonds. Treasury bonds issued 116.955 billion yuan, local government bonds issued 56.047 billion yuan, financial bonds issued 80.108 billion yuan, corporate credit - related bonds issued 118.362 billion yuan, credit asset - backed securities issued 3.434 billion yuan, and inter - bank certificates of deposit issued 256.49 billion yuan [1] - Shanxi officially released a new "Regulations on Ecological and Environmental Protection in Shanxi Province", which for the first time established a special chapter on "green and low - carbon development", clearly requiring the promotion of green and low - carbon transformation of energy, emission reduction and carbon reduction in key areas, and the establishment of a coal consumption total control system [1] Market Logic - Last week, the coking coal spot market was still weak. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. The downward range slowed down last week, and there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The support level of the coking coal futures has moved down. The support for the main contract is 1,030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is 1,100 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core View - The steel market shows a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The market should focus on the time node of the shift in trading logic from industry to macro - expectations. For the rebar main contract, there is caution in chasing long positions as the change in trading logic has not been confirmed [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher on Friday and also rose in night trading [1] 2. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that intelligent connected vehicles will form a trillion - yuan consumption field [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that in November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term agreement in the coal - steel linkage was 78 yuan higher than that in October [1] - Chongqing supports using special bonds to repurchase eligible idle land [1] - Gong Sheng, the president of the All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce, emphasized that private steel enterprises should increase R & D investment, promote intelligent transformation, and deepen green development [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [1] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points month - on - month; the profitability rate of steel mills was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points month - on - month; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month [1] 3. Market Logic - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rose on Friday, continued to climb in night trading and sharply pulled up near the close. It is necessary to observe whether the market is trading the macro - expectation logic in advance. Last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand of all steel products changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline, but the de - stocking speed slowed down [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the time node of the shift in market trading logic from industry to macro - expectations. The first resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3150, and the second is 3202. The 3000 level is still a strong support. Due to the unconfirmed change in trading logic, be cautious about chasing long positions [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that China's stock market is expected to rise further in 2026, continuing this year's strong upward trend [3]. - A team led by Rajiv Batra, the Asia head and co - head of global emerging market equity strategy at J.P. Morgan, upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [1][2][3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are gradually becoming the focus. The main indices in the two markets pulled back after rising on Thursday, which is a normal technical trend, and the direction of shock - recovery remains unchanged [1][2][3]. - There is a high probability of a significant increase in the Chinese stock market next year compared to potential downside risks. The recent adjustment of Chinese assets provides an attractive entry point [1][2][3]. - There should be no so - called AI bubble in the next three years, as current GPU utilization is high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main indices of the two markets showed divergent trends, with the semiconductor equipment sector leading the gains. The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.58 trillion yuan, continuing to shrink. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,526 points, up 11 points or 0.25%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2,969 points, down 2 points or - 0.09%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,031 points, up 80 points or 1.15%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,334 points, up 76 points or 1.06% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, Rare Metals ETF, Satellite ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, and New Energy Vehicle ETF, while the top losers were Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF, Bank ETF Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine Innovative Drug ETF. Among the sector indices in the two markets, the top gainers were forestry, titanium metals, energy metals, communication engineering, and movie theater indices, while the top losers were oil and gas exploration, national banks, traditional Chinese medicine, insurance, and coal mining indices [1]. - Net outflows of settled funds from stock index futures of the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices were 1.5 billion, 1 billion, 600 million, and 60 million yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important News - Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote in People's Daily that China should adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, combine expanding consumption with the development of new - quality productive forces, and expand the supply of high - quality consumer goods and services [1]. - Measures should be taken to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and the proportion of labor remuneration in primary distribution, and strive to achieve synchronous growth of residents' income and economic growth, as well as synchronous growth of labor remuneration and labor productivity [1]. - The investment popularity of the dividend sector has continued to rise recently. The issuance pace of dividend - themed funds has accelerated, and the new issuance scale this month is the highest of the year. More than 10 billion yuan has flowed into existing ETFs, and the share of many dividend - themed ETFs has reached a new high since listing [1]. - Greg Jensen, co - chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, refuted the theory of an AI bubble in a podcast, stating that the market has not understood the profound changes that AI will bring and the amount of capital about to flow into this field [1][2]. - The Beijing Space Data Center construction plan proposes to build and operate a centralized large - scale data center system with a power of over gigawatt (GW) in the 700 - 800 km dawn - dusk orbit [2]. - Quark AI Glass was officially launched, marking Alibaba's official entry into the AI glasses market [2]. - DeepSeek's newly released open - source mathematical model, DeepSeekMath - V2, reached the gold - medal level in the world - renowned most difficult high - school mathematics competition, marking a major breakthrough in the complex reasoning ability of open - source artificial intelligence [2]. - Morgan Stanley said that China's truck electrification market is booming rapidly. In October, the sales volume of electric heavy trucks increased by 144% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 29%, expected to rise to 35% in 2026; the penetration rate of electric light trucks will rise from 10% in 2025 to 38% in 2027, and battery demand will soar from 30 GWh to 150 GWh [2]. - Driven by the weak US dollar and the AI investment boom, Morgan Stanley expects the return rate of emerging - market assets to reach 8% in 2026, and Bank of America is optimistic about the more than 10% return of emerging - market local - currency bonds next year. US AI capital expenditure will reach $628 billion in 2028 [2]. - Goldman Sachs' trading department believes that after the sharp internal adjustment of the US stock market in November, multiple indicators have now completed a "reset" [2]. - The core CPI in Tokyo rose 2.8% year - on - year in November, exceeding the market expectation of 2.7%. The possibility of a December interest - rate hike has increased due to continued inflationary pressure and the recent weakening of the yen [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are gradually becoming the focus. The adjustment of the main indices in the two markets on Thursday was a normal technical correction, and the upward trend remains intact [1][2][3]. - The upgrade of the rating of Chinese stocks by J.P. Morgan and the new issuance of 7 Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs are expected to bring more incremental funds to the market [2][3]. - Alibaba is making efforts in both AI - to - B and AI - to - C directions, and based on its ecological advantages, the Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI living entrance [2][3]. - From January to October this year, the total amount of overseas funds flowing into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the full - year figure of $11.4 billion in 2024 [2][3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are starting to strengthen, and the upward trend will continue [1][2][3]. - Six government departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have issued a document to promote consumption, encouraging platform companies to use AI technology to tap user needs and match product and service recommendations [3]. - The bullish sentiment of traders towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3]. - Multiple Fed governors have signaled a dovish stance. US retail sales in September were lower than expected, and the lay - off rate has accelerated. The probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen to over 80% [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, as the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are starting to strengthen. Futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, with interval trading [3]. - For stock index option trading, as the stock index is in a shock - recovery period, investors should look for opportunities to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley expects the return rate of emerging market assets to reach 8% in 2026, and Bank of America is optimistic about the over 10% return of emerging market local currency bonds next year [1] - Morgan Stanley upgrades the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is at the top and starting to weaken due to consecutive wrong US policies [2] - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in December has risen significantly to 80% as employment data weakens and consumer K - type differentiation intensifies [2] - The so - called AI bubble is unlikely to exist in the next three years as GPU utilization is high, and there is huge demand for AI development [2] - The future five - year AI data center construction boom will require at least $5 trillion [2] Summaries by Related Contents Global Economic and Financial News - Morgan Stanley's team led by Rajiv Batra upgrades the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" and believes the possibility of a significant rise next year is higher than potential downside risks, and the recent adjustment of Chinese assets provides an attractive entry point [1] - Driven by the weakening dollar and AI investment boom, Morgan Stanley expects the 2026 return rate of emerging market assets to be 8%, and Bank of America is optimistic about over 10% returns on emerging market local currency bonds next year. US AI capital expenditure will reach $628 billion in 2028, affecting emerging markets through technology exports and metal prices [1] - Bridgewater's co - CIO Greg Jensen refutes the AI bubble theory, stating that the market fails to understand the profound changes AI will bring and the amount of capital about to flow into the field [1][2] - Quark AI glasses are released, marking Alibaba's entry into the AI glasses market. The glasses are built - in with Qianwen Assistant, integrating Alibaba's core ecological scenarios [1] - DeepSeek's new open - source mathematical model DeepSeekMath - V2 achieves a gold - medal level in a global high - school math competition, marking a major breakthrough in the complex reasoning ability of open - source AI [1] - Beijing proposes a space data center construction plan to build and operate a centralized large - scale data center system with over gigawatt (GW) power in the 700 - 800 km dawn - dusk orbit [1] - Tokyo's core CPI in November rises 2.8% year - on - year, exceeding the expected 2.7%. Due to inflation pressure and yen weakening, the possibility of a December interest - rate hike increases [1] - Goldman Sachs' trading department believes that after the sharp internal adjustment in November, multiple US stock market indicators have been "reset", correcting extreme long positions in large - cap tech stocks and improving market breadth [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - type differentiation intensifies, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families tighten their belts. The probability of a December Fed interest - rate cut rises to 80% as employment data weakens [2] - Industry leaders, including those from Alibaba, Google, and NVIDIA, are optimistic about AI development, with high GPU utilization and huge future demand [2] - Morgan Stanley strategists believe the future five - year AI data center construction boom will require at least $5 trillion. US data center planning capacity has increased sharply, and developers are building their own power plants [2] - US retail sales in September increase only 0.2%, lower than expected, and private enterprises' job cuts are accelerating, raising concerns about an economic slowdown [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical crises, and central bank gold purchases, the prices of gold and silver showed significant upward trends. Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for the precious metals market remain optimistic, with continued fiscal expansion in major countries, expected further interest - rate cuts by the Fed, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US, all of which may support investment demand for precious metals [2][158]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Precious Metals Market Review - **Gold Market Review** - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold had three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, it increased from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce; and from 2016 - 2025, it reached over $4000/ounce [5][6][8]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: COMEX gold futures rose from $2758/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $4398/ounce on October 20, a cumulative increase of over 59%. SHFE gold futures also reached a record high of 1005.08 yuan/gram on October 21 [2][12]. - **Silver Market Review** - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, they soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, they increased from $4/ounce to $49/ounce; and from 2021 - 2025, they broke through $50/ounce [17][19]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: COMEX silver rose from $30.5/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $55.13/ounce on November 13, an increase of 78%. SHFE silver reached a high of 12664 yuan/kg on November 13, a maximum increase of 67% [21]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Economy on Precious Metals Prices** - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle supported the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates twice, which reduced the yield of traditional assets and increased the attractiveness of gold [29]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US GDP was expected to grow by 2% year - on - year, with core CPI remaining around 3.1%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, and the manufacturing PMI was below 50. The service industry drove the US economy to maintain resilience. The "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the US's medium - and long - term fiscal outlook, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [31][34]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index was negatively correlated with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening US dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [43]. - **Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices**: Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves in 2025. In the third quarter, the net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. Most central banks still plan to increase their gold reserves in the future [44][48]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices**: Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict increased market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment, driving investors to turn to gold. These events also affected the supply and demand pattern of gold [53]. Part III: Precious Metals Supply and Demand Analysis - **Gold Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Gold Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw - material gold production was 271.782 tons, a 1.39% increase year - on - year, and imported raw - material gold production was 121.149 tons, an 8.94% increase. The global total gold supply was 3717.4 tons [54]. - **Gold Demand Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global total gold demand was 3717.4 tons, a slight increase. China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a 7.95% decrease year - on - year [60]. - **Gold Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHF gold inventory continued to rise, especially after September, while COMEX gold inventory was stable after the first - quarter increase and gradually declined slightly in October [66]. - **Silver Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Silver Supply Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver supply in 2025 would increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [71]. - **Silver Demand Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver demand in 2025 would decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces, with a 0.5% decrease in industrial demand, a 6% decrease in jewelry demand, and a 7% increase in investment demand [74]. - **Silver Inventory Analysis**: SHFE silver inventory decreased from a high at the beginning of 2025, then increased significantly from late May to early July, and then decreased. COMEX silver inventory increased in the first quarter and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory also showed a downward trend [75]. Part IV: Precious Metals Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - **Gold Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Domestic Gold Futures - Spot Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October, presenting arbitrage opportunities [84]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with opportunities for inter - period arbitrage when the spread decreased significantly [88]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply. After a significant decline from the high, its future direction was difficult to predict [89]. - **SHFE Gold Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE gold futures were mostly long. The net long positions decreased during the rapid rise in gold prices from September to October [94]. - **Silver Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October and then returning to negative [105]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with significant fluctuations during the year [109]. - **SHFE Silver Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE silver futures were long. Capital inflow was obvious from January to mid - June, then fluctuated horizontally, and increased again from September to early October [114]. Part V: Precious Metals Options Analysis and Strategies - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in the past two years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while the put - call ratio of silver options shows that investors may be more inclined to buy put options in October to avoid risks [126]. - Strategies include buying at - the - money call options when expecting price increases and increased volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options when expecting price increases but decreased volatility, selling strangles when implied volatility is high, and buying at - the - money straddles when expecting significant market fluctuations [127]. Part VI: Precious Metals Seasonal Analysis - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals are more likely to rise in April and October and more likely to fall in June [144]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Fed's 2026 Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, with two possible cuts in the first half of the year, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [154]. - **US Government Policy Orientation in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow in 2026, with a high fiscal deficit rate. If the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time, inflation will have less restraint on interest - rate cuts [155]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold demand growth was mainly driven by investment demand. In the third quarter, investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic [158]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500, and COMEX silver has strong support at $40. SHFE gold has support at 780 yuan, and SHFE silver has support at 9400 yuan [161]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [174].

宏观与金融衍生品分册 中国期货衍生品市场年报 宏观继续稳增长，利率延续震荡市 ——2025 年市场回顾与 2026 年展望 格林大华期货研究院 刘 洋 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 摘要 1 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年国债期货主力品种在 1 月和 2 月初创出高点，然后连续下跌至 3 月中旬止跌反 弹。4 月上旬，因美方宣布加征对等关税消息国债期货上涨，随后横向震荡。7、8 月 A 股强势连续上涨，推动资本市场风险偏好上升，国债期货合约价格整体回落。9 月 国债期货主力合约中短期品种宽幅震荡，超长期 30 年期国债期货主力合约继续较大 幅度下跌。国庆节后，A 股股指在高位震荡缓步回落，国债期货反弹。央行行长 10 月 27 日在金融街论坛年会上宣布，将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作，助力国债期货反弹， 进入 11 月国债期货有所回落。 2025 年前三季度中国 GDP 累计同比增长 5.2%，预期全年增长大概率可以实现全年目标 5%。5 月央行宣布，下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，同时将公开市场 7 天 逆回购利率调降 10 个基点，降至 1.4%，全年货币政策总体保持流动性宽松。 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 沪铜主力合约 CU2601 夜盘收盘价 87050 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价下跌 0.0 5%。沪铜次主力合约 CU2602 夜盘收于 87080 元/吨，跌幅 0.05%。截止北京时间 2 | | | | | 06:00，COMEX 铜主力合约 收盘价为 美元/磅（按汇率 025-11-28 HGZ25E 5.1155 | | | | | 7.0806 换算为 79852 元/吨），感恩节休市中。LME 铜主力合约 CA03ME 收于 1093 | | | | | 0 美元/吨（按汇率 7.0806 换算为 77391 元/吨），跌幅 0.21%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、11 月 27 日，国家统计局数据，1-10 月有色金属冶炼 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Fluctuation: Pay Attention to the Transformation of Later Trading Logic" [2] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory trend. The market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected in December [5][6]. - Steel supply and demand are both weak. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Iron ore is also expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. Group 4: Steel Analysis Supply - The output of the five major steel products increased this period. The output of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils increased. The output of electric - arc furnace steel contributed more to the increase [5][12]. Demand - The apparent demand of all steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [5]. Inventory - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories continued to decline, but the pace of decline slowed down [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [5]. Price Forecast - The pressure level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The pressure level of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Supply - The daily output of molten iron this week was 234.68 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 tons. It is expected to continue to decline and may fall below 230 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival at ports was low this period, but the shipment was active. The overseas port inventory was at a high level [5][17]. Price Forecast - It is expected that iron ore will continue to fluctuate. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Group 6: Trading Strategy - Maintain the judgment of the short - term oscillatory trend of steel and ore. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations [5]. - Pay attention to the time inflection point in December when the market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected [6]. Group 7: Important Information - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [7]. - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from a loss to a profit year - on - year [7]. - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1.561 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period of last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period of last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7]. - In November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term contract price linked to steel increased by 78 yuan compared with October [7].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 白银库存继续下降，酝酿大级别行情 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。 随着就业数据转弱，美联储12月降息概率已大幅上升至80%。阿里CEO表示，服务器上架速度远远跟不上需求增速， 三年内，AI泡沫是不存在的。谷歌AI基础设施负责人在全体大会中表示，公司必须每6个月将AI算力翻倍，并在 未来4到5年内额外实现1000倍的增长，以应对持续上升的AI服务需求。英伟达CEO黄仁勋称：中国将赢得人工智 能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。摩根大通策略师团队认为，未来五年 AI数据中心的建设热潮至少需要5万亿美元。美国9月零售销售额仅增长0.2%，远低于预期，显示美国人正在削减 开支，负担能力危机对消费端的冲击开始显现。ADP周度数据显示，过去四周私人企业裁员 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 股指重回震荡上行格局 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 美联储部分理事鹰派言论及市场对英伟达财报的过度质疑，是美股本次大跌的重要原因 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 美联储主要理事快速放鸽，美国9月消费下降，就业市场恶化，12月降息概率已上升至80%， 纳指快速回升 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 阿里CEO：阿里服务器上架速度远远跟不上需求增速，人工智能三年内没有泡沫 阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭在电话会上表示，阿里正在AI to B 和AI to C两大方向齐发力。一方面，Qwen3-Max 的模型智能水平、工具调用能力都已达到全球领先，另一方面，AI和阿里电商、地图、本地生活等业务生态 的协同是更大的想象力。基于AI模型和阿里生态优势，千问APP有望率先打造未来的AI生活入口。 客户需求还是非常旺盛。我们阿里云的AI服务器上架节奏，实际上严重跟不上客户订单的增长速度，我们在 手的积压订单数量还在持 ...