Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，下午收盘2601合约涨跌幅0%，收于2182元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上调。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2033元/吨，较上周五涨15元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2248元/吨， | | | | | 较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。昨日锦州港15%水二等新 | | | | | 季玉米收购价2170-2180元/吨左右，较上周五涨20元/吨；蛇口港成交价2345元/吨 | | | | | ，较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、17日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0张，共计69337张。 | | | 玉米 | 低多 | 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至11月17日，山东地区小麦-玉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Upgrade PLS to Overweight, MIN, IGO, LTR to Neutral [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for energy storage systems (ESS) will lead the market into a deficit, and short - term and long - term prices are upgraded [1] - In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of battery production will improve, and the potential for price increase will emerge. The explosion of ESS demand and supply disruptions of Chinese lithium mines jointly drive up lithium prices and industry prosperity [7] - Currently, the demand expectation for lithium carbonate is intensifying. With strong reality and strong expectation, the price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly and is expected to remain strong above 90,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summaries According to Related Information Information about Lithium Carbonate Demand and Supply in 2025 and 2026 - In 2025, the global demand for lithium carbonate is estimated to be 155 tons, while the supply capacity is over 170 tons, resulting in an excess of about 20 tons and low prices this year [6] - In 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 30% to 190 tons, and the supply capacity is estimated to increase by about 25 tons, with a basically balanced supply - demand situation and potential for price increase [6] Information about Lithium Carbonate Price Changes - On November 16, the market's bullish sentiment fermented after the statement of Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, and the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, rising to 93,800 yuan/ton with a 7.47% increase [7] - If the demand growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2026 exceeds 30% or even reaches 40%, the price may break through 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [6] Information about the Market Outlook - The resumption of production at Xiawo will partially ease market tension but is difficult to change the trend of the supply - demand gap [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The iron ore market showed a rising trend on Friday and in the night session. However, the overall market is affected by multiple factors. On the demand side, the real - estate investment and related steel - using indicators in the black building materials industry are deteriorating, and the domestic demand for steel is weak. The decline in crude steel and pig iron production also has a negative impact on iron ore demand. On the supply side, the production of five major steel products and inventory have decreased, and the inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills has increased. Considering these factors, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate, and short - term band operations within a certain range are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore prices rose on Friday and continued to rise in the night session [1]. Important Information - Central Bank's Tao Ling proposed to restrict the "involution - type competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin [1]. - The National Bureau of Statistics stated that it is necessary to continue to expand domestic demand and optimize the market competition environment to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [1]. - In October, China's automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. From January to October, the national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [1]. Market Logic - Demand side: In the first 10 months, the real - estate investment growth rate continued to decline, and the growth rates of new construction, construction, and completion of houses continued to drop. The steel - using indicators of the black building materials industry deteriorated. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was - 0.1%, the first negative value since 2021. The manufacturing investment growth rate dropped to 2.7%, the lowest level since 2021. The domestic demand for steel was weak. The year - on - year growth rate of crude steel production continued to decline, and pig iron production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, which was negative for iron ore demand [1]. - Supply side: The production of five major steel products and inventory decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills increased. Affected by the lifting of production restrictions in some areas of Hebei, the daily output of molten iron increased by 2.66 million tons week - on - week. Recently, more building material steel mills resumed production, which was positive for iron ore demand [1]. Trading Strategy - Short - term band operations within a range are recommended. For the main 2601 contract, the pressure level is 833, and the support level is 750 [1].

Group 1: Report on Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance Data - In November, the customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimao Port remained at a high level. As of November 15th, the average daily customs clearance vehicles were 1382, and on the 15th, the customs clearance vehicles increased significantly to 1659 per day [3] - The table shows the customs clearance data from October 28, 2025, to November 15, 2025, including the number of customs clearance vehicles, AGV numbers, total customs clearance vehicles, changes, and short - haul freight rates. The short - haul freight rate remained at 90 during this period [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of November 15th, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 280.68 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up of 13 tons compared to the previous week and a reduction of 81 tons compared to after the National Day holiday [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Inventory Data - A table shows the inventory and its month - on - month changes from August 8, 2025, to November 15, 2025, at the Ganqimao Port. For example, on August 16, 2025, the inventory was 267 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 7 tons; on November 15, 2025, the inventory was 281 tons with a month - on - month increase of 13 tons [6]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 46 元至 2035 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 25 元至 2047 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 67929 手至 85.34 万手，空 头持仓增加 104211 手至 111.94 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 87%，环比-0.65%。海外甲醇开工率 73.5%，环比+1.5%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 154.36 万吨，增加 5.65 万吨。其中，华东 | | | | | 地区累库，库存增加 6.49 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 0.84 万吨。中国甲醇样 | | | | | 本生产企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of steel products is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The price of rebar at the 3000 level is still quite resilient, and short - term operations are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher on Friday and continued to rise in the night session [1] 3.2. Important Information - The central bank's Tao Ling stated that it is necessary to restrain the "involution - style competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics said it is necessary to continue to expand domestic demand and optimize the market competition environment to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [1] - In October, China's automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [1] - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [1] - In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; pig iron production was 65.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; steel production was 118.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, China's crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%; pig iron production was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; steel production was 1.21759 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched, targeting Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and several central enterprises, with an on - site inspection period of one month [1] - Many places in Henan and Hebei have lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [1] 3.3. Market Logic - The real estate investment growth rate continued to decline in the first 10 months, and the steel - using indicators in the real estate sector deteriorated. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was - 0.1%, the first time it has been negative since 2021. The manufacturing investment growth rate dropped to 2.7%, the lowest level since 2021. The domestic demand for steel is weak [1] - In the first 10 months, the year - on - year growth rate of crude steel production continued to decline, and the production of crude steel continued to be regulated. Last week, the supply of rebar continued to decline, and the inventory continued to be depleted. The supply of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production and inventory of the five major steel products both decreased, and it is the off - season for steel demand [1] - Recently, more building material steel mills have resumed production, and the supply is expected to increase in the short - term. The environmental protection inspection team's entry into Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei may support the price. Steel mills have poor profitability, and the cost side provides strong support [1] 3.4. Trading Strategy - Maintain the judgment that the price will fluctuate in the short - term. The rebar price at the 3000 level has strong resilience, and short - term operations are recommended [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周焦煤主力合约收报 1192.0 元/吨，跌破 1200 元关口，周跌幅达 5.77%；焦炭主力合 | | | | | 约收报 1669.5 元/吨，周跌幅为 5.06 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be bullish, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, soybean oil being cautiously bullish, and palm oil oscillating at the bottom. For two - meal products, look for new buying points during the decline, with soybean meal waiting for a pullback and rapeseed meal having limited room for further decline [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 14, before the release of the US Department of Agriculture report, the vegetable oil market was under pressure. The closing prices of the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased compared to the previous day, with varying degrees of position changes [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures rose over 2% on November 14 due to supply concerns. The US EPA approved some small refinery exemption applications. Brazil may not raise the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. MPOB's October palm oil data showed increased production, exports, and inventory. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period in October. As of the 45th week of 2025, the total domestic inventory of the three major edible oils decreased by 6.01% week - on - week [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean supply - demand report was bullish, and the Malaysian palm oil market was in a vacuum. Domestically, soybean oil followed the upward trend but had limited upside. Palm oil was weak, and rapeseed oil's short - term sharp rise might face a callback risk. The overall vegetable oil market was divided [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Do not chase high for rapeseed oil, hold soybean oil long positions cautiously, and do not short palm oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - Arbitrage: None 3.2 Two - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 14, before the release of the US Department of Agriculture report, the protein sector was led by soybean meal. The main contract of soybean meal rose, while the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed meal declined [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean yield and production forecasts. China resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies. Brazilian soybean planting progress was 61% as of November 10. StoneX predicted an increase in Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production. Brazil's soybean exports in October were higher than last year. There were rumors of China's purchase of Australian rapeseed. As of the 45th week of 2025, domestic imported soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal inventory decreased [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean supply - demand report was bullish, but then the market was under pressure. Domestically, the supply of soybeans was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. Rapeseed meal had limited room for further decline due to zero raw material inventory [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Buy long positions in the far - month 2605 contract of soybean meal, close short positions in rapeseed meal, and look for new buying points during the decline. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3] - Arbitrage: None