Market Overview - The FOF market shows growth in both product quantity and scale, with a total of 512 public FOF funds and a total scale of 1510.79 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025, marking a significant increase from 1331.5 billion yuan in the previous quarter [6][8][11] - The issuance market for FOF has also seen a rebound, with 16 new FOFs established in Q1, raising a total of 141.47 billion shares, averaging 8.84 billion shares per fund, which is a substantial increase from 1.63 billion shares in the previous quarter [11][12][17] Performance Analysis - All types of FOF recorded positive returns in Q1, with equity-heavy FOFs performing particularly well, such as the equity-mixed FOF and the retirement target date 2060, both exceeding an average return of 2.5% [3][33] - The bond FOFs lagged behind, with an average return of only 0.1%, impacted by rising bond yields [33] Asset Allocation - There was a noticeable increase in the allocation to bond and money market funds, with the proportion of stock funds decreasing from 14.9% to 14.3% and QDII funds from 6.14% to 5.59%. Conversely, the allocation to bond funds rose from 53.49% to 55.54% [4][43] - The equity allocation of various FOF types showed a slight increase for bond-mixed FOFs, bond FOFs, and actively managed retirement target risk FOFs, while stock FOFs saw a significant reduction in equity allocation from 91.43% to 83.57% [4][45] Fund Management - The top 10 fund management companies control 65.67% of the total FOF market, with a combined management scale of 992 billion yuan. Notable growth was observed in companies like Huaxia Fund and Fuguo Fund, with Fuguo Fund achieving a remarkable increase due to the successful launch of a new product [24][23] Individual Pension Y Shares - The Y shares of retirement FOFs have shown a positive trend since their launch at the end of 2022, with the total scale surpassing 10.2 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of 1.377 billion yuan from the previous quarter [2][26] Subscription and Redemption Trends - The overall FOF market has experienced a significant inflow of funds, with the net subscription of FOF shares turning positive for the first time, indicating strong market appeal [29][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [9] Core Views - The basic chemical index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.07 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 2.07% compared to the CSI 300's 2.00% [2][14] - Key products with significant price increases include liquid chlorine (7.45%), international sulfur (5.60%), and international toluene (3.22%) [3][22] - The report highlights the upward trend in crude oil prices, with Brent crude closing at $63.88 per barrel and WTI at $61.05 per barrel, marking weekly increases of 3.95% and 4.47% respectively [4] Market Trends - The basic chemical sector saw notable weekly gains in sub-industries such as viscose (6.05%), adhesives and tapes (5.95%), and other rubber products (5.50%) [2][15] - The report indicates a positive macroeconomic sentiment following the US-China Geneva trade talks, which may support oil prices in the short term [4] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were liquid chlorine (7.45%), international sulfur (5.60%), international toluene (3.22%), international DAP (3.03%), and TDI (2.83%) [3][22] - Conversely, the products with the largest weekly price declines included maleic anhydride (-9.07%), cyclohexanone (-7.54%), and coal tar (-7.35%) [3][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: 1. Refrigerants, with companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. recommended 2. Chemical fibers, with attention to Huafeng Chemical and Xin Fengming 3. Quality stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng 4. Tire sector, recommending Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire 5. Agricultural chemicals, with a focus on Yara International and Salt Lake Potash 6. Growth stocks like Bluestar Technology and Shengquan Group [6][44]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from the previous month[11] - The CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.4%[12] - Energy prices fell by 4.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline[13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[11] Group 2: Economic Implications and Policy Outlook - The low inflation environment provides room for policy adjustments, with both monetary and fiscal policies expected to be more proactive[4] - The decline in oil prices has led to a decrease in domestic prices across related industries, impacting overall economic stability[4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5%, indicating stable demand despite the overall CPI decline[14] - The report suggests that the current economic conditions allow for a more aggressive macroeconomic policy response to external uncertainties[30] Group 3: Risks and Market Considerations - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external factors that could impact domestic economic performance and inflation trends[30]

[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年05月14日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《开局良好，内需发力》 ——2025 年 04 月 18 日 《3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿》 ——2025 年 04 月 16 日 《价格双负局面延续》 ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 关税冲击下，出口表现韧性 ——2025 年 4 月外贸数据点评 关税冲击下，出口表现韧性 4 月外贸在关税冲击下仍表现出了较强的韧性，超出市场预期。出口 虽小幅下滑，仍然保持了可观的增速，顺差维持高位。出口方面，对 美国出口确实出现了较为突出的下滑，但对其他主要贸易伙伴的出口 则有所弥补，对东盟出口明显加快，对欧盟出口稳中偏降，对日本出 口也有所回升；金砖四国方面，除南非外均有所 ...

Group 1: Tariff Changes - The cumulative tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods in 2025 is 30%[1] - As of April 2, 2025, the US increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 34%, with 24% of that suspended for the initial 90 days[1] - The average tariff level in the US rose from 3.3% to 13.3%, surpassing Brazil (11.2%), China (7.5%), the EU (5%), and Vietnam (9.4%)[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the joint statement on May 12, 2025, domestic equity markets reacted positively, with major indices like Wind All A, Hang Seng Index, and FTSE China A50 rising by 1.30%, 2.98%, and 0.88% respectively[6] - The 10-year government bond futures fell by 0.46% after the announcement[6] - The US dollar index strengthened significantly, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound depreciated against the dollar; however, the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar[6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The joint statement is expected to enhance market investors' risk appetite, potentially benefiting the domestic equity market in the future[6] - There are risks associated with the US tariff actions, including increased inflation expectations and a higher probability of economic recession in the US[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market may benefit from the expected increase in risk appetite, and the bond market yield will fluctuate at a low level. A - shares may benefit from the increase in risk appetite due to potential policy support and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks. The bond market price has fully factored in the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations, and the bond yield may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Gold still has a long - term positive outlook, but short - term volatility may increase [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by - 0.27%, - 0.47%, and - 0.16% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changing by - 2.46%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.61%, and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 2.63% [2]. - A - shares generally rose. The wind All - A Index rose 2.32%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 2.13%, 2.00%, 1.60%, 2.22%, 3.58%, and 5.65% respectively. Growth and blue - chip stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both rose [3]. - All 30 CITIC industries rose. Industries with relatively large increases included national defense and military industry, communication, banking, machinery, new energy, and comprehensive, with weekly increases of more than 3.5% [4]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the yield of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years decreased, and the yield of those with a maturity of 10 years and above increased, making the yield curve steeper. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.06% compared to April 30, 2025 [5]. - The capital price decreased, and the bond market leverage level increased. As of May 9, 2025, R007 was 1.5805%, down 25.91 BP from April 30, 2025, and DR007 was 1.5409%, down 25.77 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan in the past week. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 4.97 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025, to 6.32 trillion yuan on May 9, 2025 [6]. - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the price of US treasury bonds fell, and the yield curve shifted upward as a whole. As of May 9, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond rose 4 BP to 4.37% compared to May 2, 2025 [7]. Foreign Exchange Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.40% to 7.2402, and the US dollar against the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell 0.24% to 7.2461 [8]. Commodity Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the spot price of London gold rose 2.30% to $3324.55 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.14% to $3326.30 per ounce [9]. Foreign Trade - From January to April, China's cumulative export increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 0.6% higher than that in the first three months. Although the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US decreased from 4.5% in January - March to - 2.5% in January - April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of exports to other countries and regions such as ASEAN, the EU, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea increased. The cumulative year - on - year import decreased by 5.2%, 1.8% higher than that in the first three months. The trade surplus in January - April was $368.76 billion, an increase of $113.808 billion year - on - year [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, highlighting it as one of the sectors with significant net inflows of capital [2][9]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has seen a net inflow of 27.05 billion in the past 5 days, making it the top industry for capital inflow [9]. - The report utilizes a model that assesses industries based on six factors: capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold conditions, and earnings, with the automotive sector scoring high in these evaluations [13][14]. - The consensus stock selection model identified stocks such as Baiyang Co., Zhongchong Co., and Hunan Silver as top picks based on high-frequency capital flow and price movement similarity [16][17]. Industry Capital Inflow Statistics - In the past 5 days, the automotive industry led with a net inflow of 27.05 billion, followed by home appliances with 8.44 billion and machinery equipment with 5.26 billion [9]. - Over the past 30 days, the automotive sector experienced a net outflow of 446.97 billion, indicating a contrasting trend compared to the recent 5-day performance [10][12]. A-Share Industry Rotation Model - The A-share industry rotation model ranks the automotive sector among the top performers, alongside non-bank financials and communications, based on a composite score derived from the six factors [14][15]. - The automotive sector received a high score in capital and valuation, indicating strong investor interest and favorable market conditions [15]. Consensus Stock Selection - The consensus stock selection model highlighted industries such as feed, precious metals, and animal health II as high-performing sectors, with specific stocks selected based on their capital flow and price movement [16][17].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-Share Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built using six factors: capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability, to create a scoring system for evaluating industries comprehensively [13] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Capital Factor**: Uses the main net inflow rate of industry funds as the primary data source - **Valuation Factor**: Based on the valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Sentiment Factor**: Proportion of rising constituent stocks serves as the main data source - **Momentum Factor**: Uses the MACD indicator as the primary data source - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: Relies on the RSI indicator as the key data source - **Profitability Factor**: Based on the consensus forecast EPS percentile of the industry over the past year [13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive scoring mechanism to assess industry performance, effectively identifying high-performing and low-performing industries [13] 2. Model Name: Consensus Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines momentum, valuation, and price increase frequency factors with high-frequency capital flow data to select stocks with the highest similarity between capital flow trends and stock price trends [16] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify high-performing secondary industries over the past 30 days - Calculate momentum factors, valuation factors, and price increase frequency for stocks within these industries - Use high-frequency minute-level data to calculate capital inflow/outflow changes for each stock - Select the top three secondary industries and pick five stocks from each based on the highest similarity between capital flow trends and stock price trends [16] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-Share Industry Rotation Model - **Top Scoring Industries**: Non-bank financials, communication, and automotive scored the highest, with total scores of 8, 8, and 7, respectively - **Low Scoring Industries**: Building materials, social services, and steel scored the lowest, with total scores of -10, -5, and -5, respectively [14][15] 2. Consensus Stock Selection Model - **Selected Industries**: Feed, precious metals, and animal health II were identified as the top-performing secondary industries - **Selected Stocks**: - Feed: Baiyang Co., Zhongchong Co., Zhenghong Technology, Bangji Technology, Guibao Pet - Precious Metals: Hunan Silver, Xiaocheng Technology, Western Gold, Hunan Gold, Shandong Gold - Animal Health II: Jinhe Bio, Haili Bio, Kexian Bio, Shengwu Co., Ruipu Bio [17] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Capital Factor - **Construction Idea**: Measures the main net inflow rate of industry funds to assess capital movement trends [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculate the net inflow of main funds for each industry and normalize the data to create a scoring metric [13] 2. Factor Name: Valuation Factor - **Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation of an industry based on its historical percentile over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculate the percentile of the industry's valuation over the past year and assign scores accordingly [13] 3. Factor Name: Sentiment Factor - **Construction Idea**: Uses the proportion of rising constituent stocks to gauge market sentiment [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculate the percentage of rising stocks within an industry and normalize the data for scoring [13] 4. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Construction Idea**: Leverages the MACD indicator to measure momentum trends [13] - **Construction Process**: Compute the MACD values for each industry and assign scores based on the strength of momentum [13] 5. Factor Name: Overbought/Oversold Factor - **Construction Idea**: Uses the RSI indicator to identify overbought or oversold conditions [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculate RSI values for each industry and assign scores based on thresholds for overbought/oversold conditions [13] 6. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Construction Idea**: Assesses profitability using the consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculate the percentile of the consensus forecast EPS for each industry and assign scores accordingly [13] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Capital Factor - **Top Scoring Industries**: Automotive (+3), Non-bank financials (+2), Communication (+2) [15] 2. Valuation Factor - **Top Scoring Industries**: Automotive (+3), Non-bank financials (+3), Communication (+2) [15] 3. Sentiment Factor - **Top Scoring Industries**: Communication (+3), Automotive (+1), Non-bank financials (-2) [15] 4. Momentum Factor - **Top Scoring Industries**: Non-bank financials (+3), Communication (+1), Automotive (+1) [15] 5. Overbought/Oversold Factor - **Top Scoring Industries**: Non-bank financials (+3), Communication (+3), Automotive (+3) [15] 6. Profitability Factor - **Top Scoring Industries**: Automotive (+3), Non-bank financials (+3), Communication (+3) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the scale of open - ended bond funds decreased, with significant drops in pure - bond funds and continuous shrinkage in partial - debt hybrid funds for 13 quarters, while the scale of ordinary bond funds and convertible bond funds increased [2][3]. - The performance of convertible bond funds improved quarter - on - quarter, while the performance of pure - bond funds, ordinary bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds declined [2][10][11]. - In terms of asset allocation, the bond positions of pure - bond funds showed different trends, and the pure - bond and convertible bond positions of debt - containing funds decreased quarter - on - quarter, with different changes in stock positions [2][18][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Scale 3.1.1 Management Scale - As of Q1 2025, the scale of open - ended bond funds decreased by 435.5 billion yuan to 6.44 trillion yuan (-6.3%). Pure - bond funds decreased by 490.2 billion yuan to 3.81 trillion yuan (-11.4%), index bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds decreased by 4.9% and 4.8% respectively, and ordinary bond funds and convertible bond funds increased by 8.2% [2][3]. - In terms of scale proportion, long - term pure - bond funds accounted for the largest proportion (46.1%, -1.0% quarter - on - quarter), followed by ordinary bond funds (22.4%, +3.0% quarter - on - quarter), and index bond funds (17.4%, +0.3% quarter - on - quarter) [3]. 3.1.2 Fund Quantity - As of Q1 2025, there were 2,696 open - ended bond funds, an increase of 44 funds (+1.7%) compared with the end of Q4 2024. Pure - bond funds increased by 24, with long - term pure - bond funds increasing by 23. Index bond funds and ordinary bond funds increased by 8 and 12 respectively, while convertible bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds remained unchanged [6]. - The fund type with the largest increase in quantity was long - term pure - bond funds (23), and the one with the largest increase in proportion was index bond funds (3.5%) [6]. 3.2 Performance - In Q1 2025, bond yields fluctuated upward. The yields of pure - bond funds decreased significantly quarter - on - quarter, with the median yields of long - term, medium - short - term, and short - term pure - bond funds being -0.19%, 0.14%, and 0.25% respectively, down 2.05%, 0.97%, and 0.63% quarter - on - quarter [2][10]. - The yields of debt - containing funds showed different trends. The yields of convertible bond funds increased quarter - on - quarter, with a median yield of 3.70% (+0.77% quarter - on - quarter), while the yields of ordinary bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds decreased, with median yields of 0.21% and 0.07% respectively, down 1.52% and 1.04% quarter - on - quarter [2][11]. 3.3 Asset Allocation 3.3.1 Large - scale Asset Allocation - For pure - bond funds, the bond positions of short - term pure - bond funds decreased by 3.0% to 108.5%, while those of medium - short - term and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.4% and 1.4% to 108.28% and 108.34% respectively [18]. - For debt - containing funds, the pure - bond and convertible bond positions decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the stock positions changed differently. For ordinary bond funds, pure - bond and convertible bond positions decreased by 0.2% and 1.8% to 88.8% and 10.4% respectively, and the stock position increased by 0.6% to 17.7%. For convertible bond funds, the convertible bond position decreased by 4.4% to 87.4%, and the stock position increased by 0.6% to 17.7%. For partial - debt hybrid funds, the pure - bond, convertible bond, and stock positions decreased by 1.6%, 1.8%, and 2.4% to 78.7%, 6.0%, and 19.8% respectively [23]. 3.3.2 Bond Variety Allocation - In Q1 2025, most bond - type funds reduced their allocations of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. All types of pure - bond funds increased their allocations of short - term financing bonds and reduced their allocations of policy - financial bonds, commercial - financial bonds, medium - term notes, and inter - bank certificates of deposit [29]. - For debt - containing funds, the average credit - bond positions of ordinary bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds decreased. The average convertible - bond positions of all types of debt - containing funds decreased. Ordinary bond funds significantly reduced their holdings of medium - term notes and convertible bonds, and partial - debt hybrid funds significantly reduced their holdings of policy - financial bonds and convertible bonds [29].

Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank has implemented a 50 basis points (BP) reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, reducing the average RRR from 6.6% to 6.2%[4] - The central bank has lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 BP, with expectations for subsequent reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates[4] - Structural monetary policy tools' rates and personal housing provident fund loan rates have been reduced by 25 BP, potentially saving banks 15-20 billion yuan annually and reducing residents' provident fund loan interest payments by over 20 billion yuan[4] Support for Key Sectors - The central bank has increased the re-lending quotas for agricultural and small business support by 300 billion yuan each, and established a 500 billion yuan re-lending quota for service consumption and elderly care sectors[4] - New financial policies aim to stabilize the real estate market by improving financing systems for real estate development and personal housing loans[5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is promoting long-term capital market investments and enhancing support for companies affected by tariffs, including optimizing regulatory arrangements for equity pledges and refinancing[8] Risk Considerations - There are concerns that U.S. tariff actions may elevate inflation expectations and increase the probability of an economic recession in the U.S.[9] - Domestic growth stabilization policies may fall short of expectations, posing risks to market stability[9]