- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 电子行业周报 优于大市 电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 预计明年中国本土 AI 芯片占比近半，而 CSP/OEM 亦有望积极采购 H200。据 TrendForce 数据，中国整体高端 AI 芯片市场总量预计在 2026 年有望增长超 过 60%。一方面，本土 AI 芯片仍朝自主化发展，较高潜力的芯片设计商有机 会扩大市场占比至 50%左右；另一方面，由于英伟达 H200 效能较 H20 大幅提 升，对终端客户具有吸引力，如果能顺利销售，预计中国 CSP/OEM 等有望积 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 电子 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：胡剑 证券分析师：胡慧 021-60893306 021-60871321 hujian1@guosen.com.cn huhui2@guosen.com.cn 电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力。过去一周上证上 涨 0.03%，电子下跌 3.28%，子行业中光学光电子下跌 1.35%，其他电子下跌 4.63%。同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [6][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape of humanoid robots, suggesting that major players will emerge in this sector, with significant opportunities for specialized robots across various fields [4][19]. - AI infrastructure is highlighted as a key investment theme, particularly in gas turbine and liquid cooling technologies, which are expected to benefit from the increasing power demands of data centers [2][3]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The report notes that the generalization of humanoid robots is challenging, with a focus on specialized robots likely dominating the market in the near term. However, as technologies mature, general-purpose robots may replace specialized ones in consumer and certain industrial sectors [4]. - Key companies to watch include Tesla's supply chain partners and those with strong market positions, such as Feirongda, Longxi, Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [4][9]. AI Infrastructure - Gas Turbines - Companies like Wanzhe and Yingliu are positioned to benefit from the growing recognition among gas turbine customers, with expectations of significant growth driven by the power needs of AI data centers [2]. - The report suggests focusing on the gas turbine supply chain, including hot-end blades, generator sets, and supporting components [2]. AI Infrastructure - Liquid Cooling - The trend towards liquid cooling in data centers is noted, with leading suppliers already achieving significant revenue growth. For instance, a Taiwanese company reported a revenue increase of 141.69% year-on-year [3]. - The report recommends focusing on high-value segments within the liquid cooling supply chain, including chillers and compressors, as well as integration and component suppliers [3]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, all rated "Outperform," including: - Green's Harmony (688017.SH): EPS forecasted to grow from 0.33 to 0.66 [12][25]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): EPS expected to rise from 1.60 to 2.06 [12][25]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH): EPS projected to increase from 1.87 to 2.12 [12][25]. - The overall market performance of these companies is expected to exceed the market index by more than 10% [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][6] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the shipment of power batteries, with a market share of 4.7% in the global power battery market as of January to October 2025, showing a continuous year-on-year increase. In October, the company surpassed LG Energy in monthly installations, marking its entry into the global top three [4][7]. - The company is diversifying its customer base and expanding globally, with significant partnerships in the passenger vehicle sector with companies like XPeng, Leap Motor, GAC, and Changan, as well as in the commercial vehicle sector with clients such as Geely, Chery, and others [4][7]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in energy storage battery shipments, with expectations to reach approximately 45 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 75%. The company is enhancing its product offerings and expanding its international presence [5][8]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Segment - The company is projected to achieve nearly 70 GWh in power battery shipments in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 50%. The company is focusing on global diversification and has secured orders from leading overseas passenger vehicle clients [4][6][7]. Energy Storage Segment - The company is one of the earliest to mass-produce 314Ah cells and is continuously optimizing its product lineup. It has established deep collaborations with major clients like Sungrow and CRRC Zhuzhou, while also expanding its overseas footprint in regions like Saudi Arabia and Europe [5][8]. Financial Projections - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to fluctuations in shipment structures, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised due to positive impacts from storage and commercial vehicle demand. Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.215 billion, 2.675 billion, and 3.904 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 106%, 120%, and 46% [6][11].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 2025年12月23日 制造成长周报（第 39 期） 优于大市 何小鹏称人形机器人是巨头竞争，持续关注 AI 基建燃机及液 冷投资机会 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-何小鹏：人形机器人将是巨头的竞争：2025 年 12 月 17 日，小鹏汽 车 CEO 何小鹏在微博发文称，人形机器人将来会是巨头的竞争，而不同的专 用机器人则会有大量不同领域的选手，且会有非常多的成功机会。 事件 2-万泽航空荣获广瀚燃机"金牌供应商"称号：2025 年 12 月 19 日， 万泽航空在广瀚燃机年度供应商评价中荣获"金牌供应商"称号。 人形机器人点评：人形机器人通用化难度大，我们认为未来一段时间机器人 可能会以专用机器人为主，各细分领域均有望出现龙头；同时各产业链也将 出现各自的领先企业。未来在大模型等技术逐步成熟后通用机器人有望在消 费领域和部分工业领域取代专用机器人。我们持续看好人形机器人的长期投 资机会，建议从价值量和卡位上把握空间&确定性，从股票弹性上寻找增量 环节。1）确定性：特斯拉产业链核心供应商或者实力强、卡位好的公司， 重点关注【飞荣达】【龙溪 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Neutral" [2][15]. Core Insights - The company signed a significant contract worth 815 million yuan with its controlling shareholder, Huadian Group, to supply core equipment for a green methanol project in Liaoning, marking a new growth opportunity [3][7]. - The green methanol production capacity in China is expected to reach 10 million tons by 2030, with an average annual increase of 2 million tons [4][11]. - The market for green methanol equipment is projected to exceed 13 billion yuan annually, with the company positioned to benefit from this growth [4][9]. Summary by Sections Contract Details - The contract includes the supply of electrolyzers, CO2 compression and purification, methanol synthesis and processing, and storage tanks for the integrated demonstration project [3][7]. - The contract structure consists of three main components: hydrogen system equipment (649 million yuan), CO2 treatment and methanol system equipment (124 million yuan), and storage tank equipment (42 million yuan) [8]. Market Potential - The annual investment in green methanol equipment is estimated at 13 billion yuan, with specific allocations for CO2 treatment and methanol synthesis equipment (2.1 billion yuan), hydrogen and CO2 storage tanks (800 million yuan), and hydrogen system investments (10.1 billion yuan) [4][10]. - The company’s full-chain equipment for electro-methanol production is applicable to all green methanol projects, enhancing its market position [9]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 11.6% [6][14]. - The gross margin for the same period was 11.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points [14]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 205 million yuan, 296 million yuan, and 326 million yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 78%, 44%, and 10% [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Neutral" [2][6][15] Core Insights - The company signed a significant contract worth 815 million yuan with its controlling shareholder, providing core equipment for a green methanol project, which is the first large-scale "CO2 + green hydrogen" methanol production project in China [3][11] - By 2030, China's green methanol production capacity is expected to reach approximately 10 million tons, with an annual increase of 2 million tons [4][10] - The green methanol equipment market is projected to exceed 13 billion yuan annually, with the company positioned to benefit from the large-scale construction of green methanol capacity [4][9] Summary by Sections Contract Details - The contract includes the supply of electrolysis systems, CO2 compression and purification, methanol synthesis, and storage tanks for the Liaoning project [3][7] - The contract structure consists of three main parts: hydrogen system equipment (649 million yuan), CO2 treatment and methanol system equipment (124 million yuan), and storage tank equipment (42 million yuan) [8] Market Potential - The annual investment in green methanol equipment is estimated to reach 13 billion yuan, with specific allocations for CO2 treatment and methanol synthesis equipment (2.1 billion yuan) and hydrogen, CO2, and methanol storage equipment (800 million yuan) [4][10] - The demand for electrolyzers in the green methanol industry is projected to be 2 GW annually, corresponding to an investment of 10.1 billion yuan for hydrogen systems and supporting facilities [4][10] Company Development - The company is actively developing strategic emerging industries represented by green hydrogen, with various equipment for green hydrogen and methanol production [5][12] - The company has launched the "Huazhen" and "Huahan" series of electrolyzer products, achieving domestic substitution of core materials and establishing large-scale production capabilities [5][13] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [6][14] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 205 million yuan, 296 million yuan, and 326 million yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 78%, 44%, and 10% [6][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][16] Core Viewpoints - The demand for iron phosphate is expected to rebound, supported by the high growth in the lithium battery industry. The company's iron phosphate is produced using a cost-effective iron method, ensuring product quality and controllable costs [2][3] - The company has a leading capacity in sulfur iron ore acid production, which is expected to significantly reduce costs amid high sulfur prices. The complete industrial chain from upstream phosphate resources to downstream nitrogen fertilizers is continuously improving [2][16] - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 919 million, 1.205 billion, and 1.36 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.76, 1.00, and 1.13 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 15.18, 11.54, and 10.21 [2][16] Summary by Relevant Sections Phosphate Iron Market - As of December 19, 2025, the average market price for iron phosphate is 10,830 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.14%. The domestic solid sulfur spot price is 3,950 yuan/ton, up 157.32% year-on-year, while the average market price for sulfur iron ore is 1,024 yuan/ton, up 55.86% year-on-year [2][9] - The operating rate for iron phosphate increased from 58% in January to 75% in October 2025, indicating a significant recovery in the lithium battery supply chain [3][7] Sulfur Iron Ore Acid Production - The company has a sulfur iron ore acid production capacity of 1.35 million tons per year, with 1.18 million tons expected in 2024. The cost advantage of sulfur iron ore acid production is evident, especially as sulfur prices rise [9][13] - The global sulfur supply is tightening due to geopolitical conflicts, which has led to a significant increase in sulfur prices, with contract prices in the Middle East rising to approximately 4,250 yuan/ton [9][12] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to see a net profit growth of 14% in 2025, with a projected revenue increase of 17% [20] - The overall capacity utilization rate for iron phosphate is anticipated to rise to around 57% by 2025, driven by a rebound in demand [7][20]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 2025年12月23日 制造成长周报（第 39 期） 优于大市 何小鹏称人形机器人是巨头竞争，持续关注 AI 基建燃机及液 冷投资机会 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-何小鹏：人形机器人将是巨头的竞争：2025 年 12 月 17 日，小鹏汽 车 CEO 何小鹏在微博发文称，人形机器人将来会是巨头的竞争，而不同的专 用机器人则会有大量不同领域的选手，且会有非常多的成功机会。 事件 2-万泽航空荣获广瀚燃机"金牌供应商"称号：2025 年 12 月 19 日， 万泽航空在广瀚燃机年度供应商评价中荣获"金牌供应商"称号。 AI 基建-燃机点评：以万泽股份、应流股份为代表的企业卡位核心，在燃气 轮机客户的认可度持续提升，未来有望显著受益于数据中心缺电带来的发展 机遇。我们认为 AI 算力仍然是需求确定性高增长的投资主线，持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链，电力将逐渐成为 AI 发展瓶颈环节，需重点把握 AI 缺电相 关投资机遇。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源与备用电源将深度受 益 AI 数据中心供电需求，GEV 超预期上修燃机订单与扩产也表明行业是 ...

Macro and Strategy - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its dual industrial and financial attributes, with over 60% of silver used in industrial applications as of December 2025 [6][7] - The recent surge in silver prices was triggered by significant physical deliveries at the New York COMEX, with registered inventories dropping over 70% from their peak in 2020 [6] - Long-term demand for silver is expected to grow due to industrial applications in solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, alongside continued global monetary easing [6] Industry and Company - The agricultural sector is witnessing a bullish trend in livestock prices, particularly for beef and milk, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the meat and dairy markets [24][26] - The price of live pigs has increased to 11.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 2.03%, while beef prices are also on an upward trajectory [24][26] - The media and internet industry has shown resilience, with a 0.54% increase in the sector, outperforming major indices, driven by upcoming IPOs and strong box office performances from films like "Avatar 3" [27][28] - The copper industry is facing a significant shift as long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set to zero, indicating a potential improvement in the industry structure [31] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with retail sales down 19% year-on-year in November, although there are signs of recovery in exports for certain categories like refrigerators and washing machines [32][33]