========= - The report tracks the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, noting the number of companies at different stages of the dividend process[1][13] - The dividend yield of stocks with announced dividend plans is highest in the coal, banking, and steel industries[2][14] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices as of December 24, 2025, are provided, with the SSE 50 having the highest realized yield at 2.70%[3][16] - The annualized premium and discount rates for the main contracts of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures as of December 24, 2025, are tracked, with IM having the highest annualized discount rate at -8.67%[4][12] - The methodology for calculating index dividend points is briefly reviewed, including the use of constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, and total market value[5][41] - The process for estimating constituent stock weights, including adjustments for stock price changes and the use of daily closing weights from the China Securities Index Company, is detailed[6][45][46] - The dynamic prediction method for net profit based on historical profit distribution is explained, including the classification of companies into stable and unstable profit distribution categories[7][47][50] - The prediction of dividend payout ratios using historical data and the linear extrapolation method for predicting ex-dividend dates are described[8][51][55] - The accuracy of the index dividend point estimation model is analyzed, showing higher accuracy for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices compared to the CSI 500 index[9][57][61] - The report includes charts showing the historical premium and discount rates of the main contracts for IH, IF, IC, and IM futures from 2020 to 2025[10][17][18][22] - The historical percentile positions of the basis for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts are provided, indicating the relative premium levels of these contracts[11][27][29][35] =========

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 资料来源: Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源: Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 国信资配体系概览 低利率时代资产配置攻略 资产配置研究·资配体系 | 证券分析师： | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈凯畅 | 021-60375429 | chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090002 | 摘要： 2025 年全球大类资产行情大开大合，风险资产与避险资产共创新高，不论是与分子端背离的中国股市，还 是逼空行情下与长期估值体系脱敏的贵金属，全球变局下的资产配置体系进入重构新时代。具体来看：① 人口老龄化、逆全球化、避险情绪升温导致利率中枢长期处于低位、安全资产供给受限，资配框架需要找 到追逐收益和寻求安全之间的平衡点。②"长周期定方向，中周期选赛道，短周期找买点"是周期嵌套的 要诀，对"资产习性"的定量化洞察则是识别优质资产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][61]. Core Viewpoints - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance CICC's capital strength, business network, and overall competitiveness, aligning with policy directions and creating long-term value [1][11]. - Post-merger, CICC's total assets are projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a 48% increase in net assets attributable to shareholders, elevating its industry ranking to 4th place [1][12]. - The merger is anticipated to boost CICC's revenue by approximately 32% and net profit by about 45% by 2025, improving its industry rankings to 3rd and 6th respectively [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger is seen as a strategic move to consolidate resources and enhance long-term value through reasonable valuation, advantageous pricing, and potential synergies [7][11]. - The integration is expected to create significant operational synergies, particularly in capital utilization, wealth management, and investment banking [2][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for CICC are as follows: 22,990 million yuan in 2023, 21,333 million yuan in 2024, and an estimated 26,901 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 6,156 million yuan in 2023 to 8,233 million yuan in 2025, marking a growth of 44.6% [4]. Business Synergies - The merger will enhance wealth management capabilities, increasing the number of business outlets by approximately 80% to over 400, and expanding the customer base by over 50% to more than 14 million [2][37]. - The investment banking team will grow by over 300 personnel, allowing for better coverage of leading enterprises and international business [2][46]. Strategic Goals - CICC aims to become a comprehensive modern investment bank by 2025, focusing on integrating human resources, capital, and data to enhance global reach and service capabilities [3][61]. - The merger is a critical catalyst for accelerating CICC's strategic goals and significantly improving its competitive edge and international influence [3][61].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 国信资配体系概览 低利率时代资产配置攻略 资产配置研究·资配体系 | 证券分析师： | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈凯畅 | 021-60375429 | chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090002 | 摘要： 2025 年全球大类资产行情大开大合，风险资产与避险资产共创新高，不论是与分子端背离的中国股市，还 是逼空行情下与长期估值体系脱敏的贵金属，全球变局下的资产配置体系进入重构新时代。具体来看：① 人口老龄化、逆全球化、避险情绪升温导致利率中枢长期处于低位、安全资产供给受限，资配框架需要找 到追逐收益和寻求安全之间的平衡点。②"长周期定方向，中周期选赛道，短周期找买点"是周期嵌套的 要诀，对"资产习性"的定量化洞察则是识别优质资产的重要手段。③低利率时代的三大应对策略："从 本土化到全球化的资产拓圈"、"从狭义高股息到广 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][61]. Core Viewpoints - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance CICC's capital strength, business network, and overall competitiveness, aligning with policy directions and creating long-term value [1][11]. - Post-merger, CICC's total assets are projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a 48% increase in net assets attributable to shareholders, elevating its industry ranking to 4th place [1][12]. - The merger is anticipated to boost CICC's revenue by approximately 32% and net profit by about 45% by 2025, improving its industry rankings to 3rd and 6th respectively [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers create value through reasonable valuation, advantageous pricing, and potential synergy from integration [7][10]. - The merger aligns with national policies aimed at developing leading investment banks and enhancing resource integration capabilities [11]. Financial Performance and Projections - CICC's revenue is expected to grow from 22.99 billion yuan in 2023 to 43.56 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][63]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 6.16 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.40 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 44.6% in 2025 [4][63]. Business Synergies and Integration - The merger will enhance capital utilization efficiency, with CICC's leverage potentially increasing from an average of 5.4 times to a higher level post-merger [2][21]. - Wealth management is identified as a key area for synergy, with an expected increase in the number of business outlets by approximately 80%, reaching over 400 [2][37]. - The investment banking and asset management sectors will benefit from the integration of teams and resources, enhancing overall capabilities [2][46]. Strategic Development - CICC aims to become a comprehensive modern investment bank by 2025, focusing on customer-centric services and global expansion [3][61]. - The merger is seen as a catalyst for accelerating CICC's strategic goals and enhancing its competitive edge and international influence [3][61].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 2025年12月24日 牧业大周期更新点评 重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有望打开成长空间 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 农林牧渔  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 据农业农村部统计，截至 2025 年 12 月 18 日，国内主产区牛肉均价为 65.73 元/kg，较年初低点累计上涨 16%；主产区生鲜乳均价为 3.02 元/kg，较年初累计下跌约 3%；肉奶比（牛肉价格/生鲜乳价格）已接近 22，创历史新高。 国信农业观点：1） ...

Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Sector - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market, with a total A-share decline of 0.07%, while the biopharmaceutical sector saw a slight decrease of 0.14% [7] - Recent policies have been introduced to support service consumption, particularly in healthcare, which is expected to enhance the demand for medical services [8] - The medical service market is projected to reach approximately 8.74 trillion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 10% [8] - Companies with innovative capabilities in the medical service sector, such as Aier Eye Hospital and Gushengtang, are recommended for investment [8] Group 2: Machinery and AI Infrastructure - The competition in humanoid robots is intensifying, with significant opportunities for specialized robots in various fields [9] - AI infrastructure is expected to see substantial growth, particularly in gas turbine technology, which is crucial for data centers [10] - Companies like Anyflow and Wanzhe are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related energy solutions [10] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming a trend in data centers, with significant revenue growth reported by leading suppliers [11] Group 3: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The industrial power generation volume for the first eleven months of 2025 was 88.567 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [15] - The public utility sector has shown mixed performance, with the public utility index declining by 0.59% [14] - Recommendations include major thermal power companies and renewable energy leaders, as the government continues to support the development of renewable energy [18] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The price of phosphoric acid has increased, with the market average reaching 10,830 yuan per ton, a year-on-year rise of 3.14% [19] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for phosphoric acid and the cost advantages of sulfur iron ore in acid production [20] - The company has a complete industrial chain from upstream phosphate resources to downstream nitrogen fertilizers, with a forecasted net profit growth from 9.19 billion yuan in 2025 to 13.60 billion yuan in 2027 [20][23] Group 5: Energy and Green Technology - Huadian Technology has signed a significant contract worth 815 million yuan for a green methanol project, marking a new growth opportunity [21] - The green methanol production capacity in China is expected to reach 10 million tons by 2030, with substantial investment opportunities in related equipment [21] - The company is actively developing hydrogen energy projects and has established a comprehensive supply chain for green hydrogen and methanol production [22]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 滔搏（06110.HK） 三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加深幅度收窄 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 财年第三季度，集团零售及批发业务之总销售金额按年同比录得高单位数下降。截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 国信纺服观点：1)流水增长：2026 财年第三季度销售额同比下滑高单位数，线上渠道增速仍好于线下渠道， 但受基数影响，分化较上半年收窄；2）库存折扣：三季度末库存总额同比下降，与销售表现方向一致， 保持良 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 电子行业周报 优于大市 电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 预计明年中国本土 AI 芯片占比近半，而 CSP/OEM 亦有望积极采购 H200。据 TrendForce 数据，中国整体高端 AI 芯片市场总量预计在 2026 年有望增长超 过 60%。一方面，本土 AI 芯片仍朝自主化发展，较高潜力的芯片设计商有机 会扩大市场占比至 50%左右；另一方面，由于英伟达 H200 效能较 H20 大幅提 升，对终端客户具有吸引力，如果能顺利销售，预计中国 CSP/OEM 等有望积 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 电子 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：胡剑 证券分析师：胡慧 021-60893306 021-60871321 hujian1@guosen.com.cn huhui2@guosen.com.cn 电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力。过去一周上证上 涨 0.03%，电子下跌 3.28%，子行业中光学光电子下跌 1.35%，其他电子下跌 4.63%。同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 ...