Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Insights - The new policy in Beijing is seen as a limited measure but may signal the beginning of a new round of easing in the real estate market [4][12]. - The background for the new policy is the failure of Beijing's housing prices to stabilize, with prices declining since March [5][12]. - The marginal release of purchasing power from the new policy is expected to be limited, but it could initiate a new round of easing in first-tier cities [4][12]. - Investment opportunities exist despite the ongoing price decline, with specific stock recommendations including China Jinmao, Greentown China, Beike-W, and I Love My Home [14]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On August 8, 2025, Beijing's housing authority announced adjustments to housing purchase policies, allowing families meeting certain criteria to buy unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [4][16]. - The policy also allows single adults to follow the same purchasing limits as families [17]. Market Conditions - Since March, Beijing's housing prices have resumed their downward trend, with a month-on-month decline of -1.1% over the past two months, returning to levels seen before the "924" policy in 2024 [5][12]. - The price index for Beijing has not shown any advantage compared to other major cities since 2019, with a decline of approximately 20% from the early 2023 peak in key districts [5][12]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates that if the price decline continues for three more months, more substantial "stabilization" policies may be expected [12]. - The overall sentiment among residents regarding future price increases remains pessimistic, with only 8.9% expecting price rises in the second quarter of 2025, marking a historical low [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - Retail demand in July for home appliances remains strong despite the seasonal downturn, with air conditioning retail sales growing over 30% [1][18]. - The decline in home appliance exports has narrowed to 3% in July, with expectations for a return to stable growth as tariff policies ease [2][29]. - The U.S. housing market shows resilience, with expectations for recovery following anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, which could positively impact home appliance demand [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Bear Electric, Roborock, and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13]. 2. Retail and Export Performance - July retail performance shows strong growth in air conditioners (+39.4% online, +36.5% offline), washing machines (+21.6% online, +15.7% offline), and significant growth in small kitchen appliances like rice cookers (+17.6% online, +12.0% offline) [1][18]. - Home appliance exports in July reached 59.55 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year decline, with a slight increase in export prices [2][29]. 3. Market Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +1.14% this week, outperforming the broader market [42]. - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum increased by 1.1% and 2.5% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices rose by 0.8% [45][56]. - Shipping indices for routes to the U.S. and Europe showed a decline, indicating potential cost pressures in logistics [57]. 4. Company Earnings Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for key companies include Midea Group at 5.62 yuan for 2025, Gree Electric at 6.34 yuan, and Haier Smart Home at 2.26 yuan [5][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][29]. Core Viewpoints - The current consumer market is characterized by diversified supply, transparent information, and rational demand, highlighting the advantages of companies with high cost-performance products and mature membership systems [2][13]. - Supply chain efficiency is crucial for sustaining high cost-performance products, while membership systems help convert low-frequency users into high-loyalty customers, thereby reducing customer acquisition costs [2][13]. - Recent performance improvements for companies like Dongfang Zhenxuan indicate the effectiveness of these strategies, with significant growth in self-operated product categories and membership numbers [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector, anticipating continued valuation recovery due to favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4][29]. Market Trends - The consumer services sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.55% during the reporting period, lagging behind the broader market by 1.01 percentage points [16][17]. - Companies such as Dongfang Zhenxuan, Xizang Tourism, and KEEP showed significant gains, while others like Tongcheng Travel and Nine Mao Jiu experienced notable declines [17][20]. Company Dynamics - Dongfang Zhenxuan's recent operational improvements include the launch of over 400 new self-operated products, achieving a total sales volume of 2.1 billion units, and a significant increase in paid membership numbers [14][15]. - The WS Jiangtun membership store has successfully attracted customers with its tiered membership fees and a selection of global products, validating the effectiveness of high cost-performance products combined with a membership model [2][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Atour, Beijing Renli, and Keri International, among others, for potential investment opportunities in the current economic environment [4][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][33]. Core Insights - The AI sector is currently the main investment theme, with major companies benefiting from advancements in cloud computing, advertising, and AI-generated content (AIGC). North American giants have seen accelerating revenue growth in Q2, leading to an upward adjustment in annual capital expenditures [3][30]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector, where platforms are intensifying investments in instant retail to seek new growth opportunities [3][30]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Meitu, Kuaishou, NetEase Cloud Music, and Tencent Music, all of which are expected to benefit from AI advancements [3][30]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - Kimi K2 model from Hugging Face ranks first in daily downloads, with over 40,000 downloads per day [17]. - Baidu AI Search leads the domestic market with 322 million monthly active users [20]. - Alibaba's OKKI AiReach has helped merchants discover an average of 1,325 new potential customers [20]. - OpenAI has launched its models on Amazon Web Services, enhancing accessibility for AI applications [21][22]. Underlying Technology - OpenAI has released its flagship AI model, GPT-5, which integrates reasoning capabilities and rapid response advantages across four versions [27]. Industry Policy - The Chinese government is implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, which is expected to create new growth opportunities for companies in the AI industry [28]. - Support for digital infrastructure, including 5G and industrial internet, is being strengthened through long-term loans [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, particularly focusing on humanoid robots and AI infrastructure [4][8]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements showcased at the 2025 World Robot Conference, highlighting the industry's potential for growth and innovation [3][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain positioning and value capture in humanoid robotics, recommending a focus on key suppliers and companies with strong market positions [4]. - AI infrastructure is expected to see sustained capital expenditure growth driven by increasing demand, particularly benefiting sectors like gas turbines and chillers [4]. Industry Dynamics - The 2025 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing, featuring over 200 companies and 1500 exhibits, showcasing advancements in humanoid robotics and their applications [16]. - The report notes the rapid development of the domestic robot industry, with improvements in capabilities such as sorting, handling, and performing tasks like music and shopping [3]. - The low-altitude economy is progressing with infrastructure initiatives, including the successful completion of the first offshore oil platform supply flight using drones [27]. Company Dynamics - Key companies highlighted for humanoid robotics include: - **Joint suppliers**: Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, and Bluesky Technology for joint modules [4]. - **Dexterous hands**: Zhaowei Electromechanical and Leisai Intelligent [4]. - **Reduction gears**: Green Harmonic and Jindi Co., Ltd. [4]. - AI infrastructure companies to watch include Hanbell Precise Machinery, Ice Wheel Environment, and Yingliu Co., Ltd. [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, including: - Green Harmonic (688017.SH): Outperform, with a projected EPS of 0.50 for 2025 [8]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): Outperform, with a projected EPS of 2.01 for 2025 [8]. - Bluesky Technology (688360.SH): Outperform, with a projected EPS of 0.99 for 2025 [8]. - The report also highlights the performance of companies in the humanoid robot sector, noting significant market movements and growth potential [15].

Group 1 - The report highlights a contraction in the profitability effect of the innovative drug sector, with the Wande Innovative Drug Index and the Innovative Drug Concept Index declining by 1.08% and 2.10% respectively, and the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index experiencing a maximum drawdown of 4.97% during the week [1][10][11] - Short-term technical patterns and capital flows show a divergence, with significant inflows into ETFs despite the recent downturn in the innovative drug sector, indicating potential resilience [1][11] - Over 40% of companies in the innovative drug sector are set to disclose their mid-year reports after August 26, which may introduce volatility in the sector's performance due to historical patterns observed in earnings disclosures [1][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that the probability of success in "chasing" stocks during the mid-year reporting season may be lower than "cutting" positions, as historical data indicates that absolute returns tend to diminish over time after initial earnings surprises [2][40][46] - The analysis indicates that stocks with stagnant prices and forward valuations, such as those in non-banking financials, food and beverage, and household appliances, may present better opportunities for "cutting" strategies [3][50] - The report identifies sectors with a favorable technical setup, including telecommunications, electronics, and automotive, where over 30% of stocks are in a bullish alignment, suggesting potential for upward movement [3][57] Group 3 - Long-term valuation trends indicate that major drugs like Merck's Keytruda and AbbVie's Humira have the potential to drive significant revenue growth, but face challenges from patent expirations and declining sales, which could lead to rapid underperformance [1][28][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the "patent cliff" phenomenon, which affects multinational corporations (MNCs) and creates opportunities for domestic companies to capitalize on their R&D cost advantages [1][36] - The innovative drug sector is expected to maintain upward valuation potential in the medium to long term, driven by the intersection of domestic talent advantages and the challenges faced by international pharmaceutical giants [1][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the equity market generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,600 points. The military industry sector remained high due to the approaching military parade, and the non - ferrous metals sector was boosted by factors such as rising gold prices and increased rare - earth exports. The pharmaceutical sector, which had accumulated high gains, saw a decline in sentiment. The bond market was generally volatile, and the new VAT regulations had no significant impact. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 1.68bp to 1.69% on Friday [1][8][9]. - In the convertible bond market, most individual convertible bonds rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.31% for the whole week, the median price rose by 2.23%, the arithmetic average parity increased by 2.86%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.09% compared to the previous week [2][9]. - After a very short - term adjustment, the equity market rose again, and the convertible bond market performed better. As of last Friday, the average price of convertible bonds was close to 145 yuan, and the median market price reached 130 yuan, both at the highest levels since 2023. In the short term, there are no obvious negative factors in the equity market. In the convertible bond market, although the bond - bottom protection has decreased, the current valuation is slightly lower than in August 2022, and the bond market interest rate is much lower. The supply - demand pattern can still strongly support convertible bonds, and the probability of a significant short - term adjustment is low, but more attention should be paid to bond selection [3][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Focus (August 4 - August 8, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 3,600 points. The military industry sector was affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, and the non - ferrous metals sector was driven by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and increased rare - earth exports in July. The pharmaceutical sector with high previous gains saw a decline in sentiment [1][8]. - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose. National defense and military industry (+5.93%), non - ferrous metals (+5.78%), machinery and equipment (+5.37%), comprehensive (+4.32%), and textile and apparel (+4.23%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-0.84%), computer (-0.41%), commercial retail (-0.38%), and social services (-0.11%) performed poorly [9]. Bond Market - The bond market was generally volatile last week. The new VAT regulations on the previous Friday had no significant impact. Although the central bank conducted net withdrawals for several consecutive days, the overnight capital price remained low, and the capital environment was relatively loose. The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect was weak, and there were even days when stocks, bonds, and commodities all rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.69% on Friday, down 1.68bp from the previous week [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - Most individual convertible bonds rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.31% for the whole week, the median price rose by 2.23%, the arithmetic average parity increased by 2.86%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.09% compared to the previous week [2][9]. - By industry, most sectors in the convertible bond market rose. Beauty care (+4.18%), non - ferrous metals (+4.16%), machinery and equipment (+4.16%), and national defense and military industry (+3.70%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (+0.76%), building materials (+1.09%), social services (+1.28%), and food and beverage (+1.44%) performed poorly [12]. - At the individual bond level, bonds such as Jian (related to the Xinzang Railway), Julong (PEEK materials), Gaoce (photovoltaic & robotics), Dongjie (robotics), and Borui (innovative drugs) had the highest increases; bonds such as Qizheng (innovative drugs), Haopeng (solid - state batteries & announced forced redemption), Saili (innovative drugs), Yingji (military industry & announced forced redemption), and Tianlu (Yaxia Hydropower concept) had the highest decreases [2][13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 422.376 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 84.475 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [17]. Views and Strategies (August 11 - August 15, 2025) - After a very short - term adjustment, the equity market rose again, and the convertible bond market performed better. The CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed the major stock indices, and the convertible bond valuation further increased. As of last Friday, the average price of convertible bonds was close to 145 yuan, and the median market price reached 130 yuan, both at the highest levels since 2023 [3][19]. - In the short term, there are no obvious negative factors in the equity market. In the convertible bond market, although the bond - bottom protection has decreased, the current valuation is slightly lower than in August 2022, and the bond market interest rate is much lower. The supply - demand pattern can still strongly support convertible bonds. The increase in the convertible bond holdings of public funds in July and the continuous expansion of the convertible bond ETF scale since late July reflect the strong allocation demand for convertible bonds. The probability of a significant short - term adjustment is low, but more attention should be paid to bond selection [3][19]. - In terms of direction, as the interim reports of listed companies are being released, there is still room for growth in low - priced stocks of equity - biased underlying stocks with good performance. It is recommended to find high - quality targets in sectors such as computing power, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, components of humanoid robots, AI applications benefiting from large - model iterations, and solid - state battery materials. Dividend assets led by banks have relatively lagged behind in this round of the market, so it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of dividend sectors such as banks, water services, and gas. In addition, pay attention to opportunities in high - quality new and sub - new convertible bonds [4][20]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (August 8, 2025), for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 44.32%, 34.38%, 25.28%, 18.4%, 12.37%, and 7.79% respectively, at the 94%/92%, 94%/95%, 90%/90%, 87%/84%, 80%/71%, and 80%/59% percentile levels since 2010/2021 [21]. - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 2.72%, at the 0%/0% percentile level since 2010/2021 [21]. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 37.94%, at the 72%/56% percentile level since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 9.09%, at the 45%/43% percentile level since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (August 4 - August 8, 2025), the Weidao Convertible Bond was issued, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock, Weidao Nano (688147.SH), belongs to the power equipment industry, with a market value of 15.315 billion yuan as of August 8. The company is a global high - end micro - nano equipment manufacturer for semiconductors and pan - semiconductors. The scale of the issued convertible bonds is 1.17 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA, and the issuance was announced on August 4. After deducting the issuance fees, the funds are planned to be invested in projects such as the construction of a semiconductor thin - film deposition equipment intelligent factory, the expansion of a research laboratory, and the replenishment of working capital [29]. - As of the announcements on August 8, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week (August 11 - August 15, 2025). Last week, there was 1 company with a board of directors' plan (Sanxin Medical), and no companies passed the exchange's approval for registration, the listing committee's review, the exchange's acceptance, or the shareholders' meeting [30]. - As of now, there are 74 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 116.62 billion yuan. Among them, 4 have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 3.56 billion yuan, and 4 have passed the listing committee's review, with a total scale of 8.98 billion yuan [30].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月11日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20250804-20250808） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行条款发行过程可能有更改，请以最终募集说明书为准，发行进度请与相关主承销商咨 询。 本周无新增项目信息；（部分项目因合规原因未予列示） 风险提示 项目获批进度不及预期，经济增速下滑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 证券研究报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the China Securities REITs Index pulled back. The average weekly price changes of property - based REITs and franchise - based REITs were - 0.45% and - 0.03% respectively. Among different types of REITs, warehousing logistics, ecological environmental protection, and energy - related REITs led the gains. The new infrastructure REITs had the highest trading activity. Two data center public offering REITs were officially listed, marking the expansion of the underlying assets of public offering REITs [1][3][4]. - As of August 8, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 867.98 points, with a weekly change of - 0.33%. Year - to - date, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index had the highest increase at + 12.8%, followed by the China Securities REITs Index at + 9.9%. The total market value of REITs rose to 221.2 billion yuan on August 8, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.76%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - The annualized cash distribution rate of public offering REITs was 5.8% as of August 8, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property REITs was 19BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - based REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 213BP [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - The weekly price change rankings of major indices were: China Securities Convertible Bond Index > CSI 300 Index > China Securities All - Bond Index > China Securities REITs Index. The China Securities REITs Index had a weekly change of - 0.33%, underperforming the other three indices. Year - to - date, the ranking of major indices' price changes was the same as above [2][7]. - In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 6.7%, with a volatility of 7.0%. Its return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index. Its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index [2]. - The total market value of REITs increased to 221.2 billion yuan on August 8, up 8.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate was 0.76%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [2]. Performance of Different Types of REITs - Property - based REITs and franchise - based REITs had average weekly price changes of - 0.45% and - 0.03% respectively. Among different project - type REITs, warehousing logistics (+ 0.9%), ecological environmental protection (+ 0.5%), and energy - related (+ 0.3%) had the highest average increases [3]. - The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increase were Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT (+ 4.31%), ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT (+ 3.55%), and Huaxia Nanjing Transportation Expressway REIT (+ 3.38%) [3][4]. - Due to the listing of two new infrastructure REITs (Southern Vanda Data Center REIT and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT), new infrastructure REITs had the highest daily turnover rate this week, with an average daily turnover rate of 26.1%. Their trading volume accounted for 18.7% of the total REITs trading volume [4][21][22]. Primary Market Issuance - As of August 8, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the "accepted" stage, 2 in the "inquiry" stage, 5 in the "feedback" stage, 4 passed and waiting for listing, and 10 first - issued products that had passed and were listed [25]. Valuation Tracking - From the perspective of bond characteristics, as of August 1, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public offering REITs was 5.9%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. From the perspective of equity characteristics, relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to evaluate REITs' valuations [27]. - As of August 8, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 19BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - based REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 213BP [1]. Industry News - On August 8, two data center public offering REITs were officially listed. Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with an issuance of 1 billion shares and a fundraising of 4.5 billion yuan. Southern Vanda Data Center REIT was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total issuance of 800 million shares and a fundraising of 2.4 billion yuan. Their listing marked the expansion of the underlying assets of public offering REITs and provided an innovative example for the data center industry to expand financing channels through asset securitization [5][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 6.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.21%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.241 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year [1] - The integration of equipment, engineering, and services is driving a strong turning point, with both domestic and international markets maintaining high levels of prosperity [2] - The company has successfully entered the Middle East and North Africa oil and gas EPC projects, opening up growth opportunities in equipment, engineering, and services [3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of 3.144 billion yuan, a significant increase of 196.36% year-on-year, indicating strong cash discipline [1] - New orders and existing orders reached 9.881 billion yuan and 12.386 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 37.65% and 34.76% [1] - The company’s revenue from high-end equipment manufacturing and oil and gas engineering and technical services was 4.224 billion yuan and 2.069 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 22.42% and 88.14% respectively [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the European energy market's shift away from Russian gas and the demand for AI data center energy [3] - The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted upwards, with net profits projected to be 3.163 billion yuan, 3.795 billion yuan, and 4.445 billion yuan respectively [3] - The reasonable valuation range for the company has been raised to 52.53-61.79 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14/12/10 for the years 2025 to 2027 [3]