Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has been set to zero for 2026, down from $21.25 per ton in 2025, indicating a significant shift in the copper smelting industry dynamics [3][4]. - The reduction to zero processing fees is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand between copper mines and smelting, as well as historically high levels of by-product and recovery rate revenues [3][8]. - The competitive advantage of Chinese copper smelting plants is highlighted by their leading technology and cost control, which is expected to improve the industry landscape as capacity control measures are likely to be implemented [21]. Summary by Sections Processing Fees and Market Dynamics - The processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has dropped to $0 per ton for 2026, compared to $21.25 per ton in 2025, reflecting a challenging negotiation environment this year [3][4]. - The long-term contract processing fee is crucial for smelting profitability, with many large smelting plants seeing a decline in the proportion of long-term contracts due to tight copper concentrate supply [6][8]. Recovery Rates and By-Product Revenues - The recovery rate for copper smelting in China is significantly higher than the industry standard, leading to additional revenue from copper prices [8][9]. - Sulfuric acid by-product revenues have surged, with current prices nearing historical highs, contributing to the overall profitability of smelting operations [8][9]. Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The zero processing fee scenario is expected to prompt regulatory measures to control copper smelting capacity, potentially leading to a more favorable industry structure [13][21]. - Key companies in the copper smelting sector include Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper, which are well-positioned to benefit from these industry changes [21][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly warming up throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. On one hand, the economic stabilization since the fourth quarter of last year mainly comes from the support of central government leveraging. Considering that there is no additional issuance of Treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year, it is expected that the financing growth rate of government bonds will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and the domestic economy will still be under pressure. On the other hand, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investors' sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data, the domestic bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a relatively low historical level. The economic downward pressure in November continued to increase, with the estimated GDP growth rate in October at about 4.1%, a decline of 0.1% from October. The deflation risk has been alleviated. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently [2][12] - **20 - year CDB bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at an extremely low historical position. Similar to the situation of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 243,416 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion [14] Primary Market - Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), with a total issuance of 207 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19] Primary Market - This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 12 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25] Secondary Market - Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week, with a trading volume of 12,302 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bonds increased, while that of ultra - long local bonds decreased [27] Secondary Market - Yield - After the release of November economic data, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The yields of different - term Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to varying degrees [38] Secondary Market - Spread Analysis - **Term spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48] - **Variety spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP compared with the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased slightly [55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11][38]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread冲高 slightly declined this week, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is also expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk was alleviated. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and bond market analysis are similar to those of 30 - year Treasury bonds. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24,341.6 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, with a total of 207 million yuan issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased significantly. In terms of varieties, local government bonds accounted for the majority. In terms of terms, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds were issued [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 120 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 123.02 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume and proportion of different varieties changed differently [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend. The 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [55].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance retail sector is experiencing a bottoming out in November, with expectations for recovery driven by continued national subsidies and improvements in exports [1][18]. - Despite a challenging environment with high base effects from the previous year, the resilience of leading companies in the home appliance sector remains strong, particularly in the white goods segment [13][14]. - The report highlights a potential rebound in retail demand for home appliances, supported by ongoing national subsidy policies and improved export conditions [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods category; Hisense Visual Technology in the black goods category; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs in the small appliances category [5][6][14]. 2. Market Performance and Insights - In November, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment fell by 19.4% year-on-year, while the overall retail sales in China grew by 1.3% [2][19]. - The export value of home appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year in November, with air conditioning exports down by 25.7%, while refrigerators and washing machines showed signs of recovery with growth rates of 7.6% and 15.8%, respectively [3][46]. - Air conditioning production and sales saw declines exceeding 30% in November, but January production is expected to improve due to the timing of the Spring Festival [4][59]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.44% compared to the broader market [61]. - Prices for copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 2.4%, respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices remained stable [63][64]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with residential construction and sales areas down by 20.1% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury bond spread narrowed slightly [1][4][11][38]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate currently. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and the variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds will also fluctuate in a narrow range [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury bond spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. The economic downward pressure increased in November. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk eased in November. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the near term [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation was similar to that of 30 - year Treasury bonds. It is expected that the variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds will fluctuate in a narrow range [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 243,416 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), totaling 207 million yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 203 million yuan, and corporate bonds accounted for 4 million yuan. By term, 15 - year bonds were 74 million yuan, 20 - year bonds were 31 million yuan, and 30 - year bonds were 102 million yuan [19]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 12 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week. The trading volume was 1,230.2 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 95.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.5% [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly recovered. The 30 - 10 Treasury bond spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury bond spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed trends last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, changing by 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main variety of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). Both the trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous week [55].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices have reached a historic high in December 2025, driven by both industrial and financial demand[1] - Industrial silver usage exceeded 60% in 2025, with significant demand from sectors like data centers and renewable energy[1] - A short-term trigger for the price surge was the physical delivery of 60% of registered inventory (approximately 47.6 million ounces) at the New York COMEX, with registered inventory down over 70% from its 2020 peak[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Performance - For the week of December 6 to December 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.08%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.63%[2] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 67.39, down 5.64 from the previous week, indicating a relative strengthening of silver[2] - In commodity markets, London silver prices rose by 11.03%, reflecting strong demand dynamics[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44,355 million tons, an increase of 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 16,893 contracts, up by 889 contracts, while short positions increased to 33,001 contracts[3] - The gold ETF scale rose to 3,385 million ounces, reflecting a 90,000-ounce increase week-over-week[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The ongoing global monetary easing cycle is expected to lower holding costs and strengthen demand for silver as a safe-haven asset[1] - Potential risks include the overextension of Federal Reserve easing expectations and technological breakthroughs in "de-silverization" that could disrupt market dynamics[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry [5][4][35]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a weekly increase of 0.54%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.35%) and the ChiNext index (-1.31%) during the week of December 15-21, 2025 [11][12]. - Key performers in the industry include Guangxi Radio and Television, Sanwei Communication, Perfect World, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, while notable decliners include Bona Film Group, ST Fanli, and CTV Media [11][12]. - The release of "Avatar 3" has significantly boosted box office revenues, contributing to a total of 7.06 billion yuan in film box office for the week, with "Avatar 3" alone accounting for 3.81 billion yuan (53.9% of the total) [18][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance ranked 16th among all sectors for the week, with a notable increase in stock prices for several companies [11][12][13]. Key Developments - ByteDance launched the Doubao model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro, enhancing capabilities for audio-visual content generation [2][15]. - Tencent introduced the Mix Yuan video model 1.5, marking a significant advancement in real-time interactive experiences [2][16]. - OpenAI released the GPT Image 1.5 model, improving image generation and editing capabilities [2][17]. - MiniMax and Zhiyu successfully passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with plans to list in January 2026 [2][17]. - "Avatar 3" premiered on December 19, 2025, achieving a box office of nearly 4 billion yuan within three days [2][17]. Box Office and Content Performance - The top three films for the week were "Avatar 3" (3.81 billion yuan), "Zootopia 2" (2.42 billion yuan), and "Get Out" (460 million yuan) [18][20]. - Popular variety shows included "Now Departing Season 3" and "Running Man Season 9" [24][26]. - In the gaming sector, the top-grossing mobile games in November 2025 were "Whiteout Survival," "Kingshot," and "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story" [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on opportunities in the gaming sector, particularly with companies like Giant Network, Kyeing Network, and Jibite [4][35]. - It emphasizes the potential for growth in AI applications and the film industry, recommending platforms like Mango TV and Bilibili, as well as content producers like Light Media and Huace Film [4][35].

Global Assets - The "cross-year red envelope" and "spring market" phenomenon is observed, with Q4 historically showing higher stock index gains due to seasonal effects, dovish signals from central banks, and increased risk appetite during the holiday season [3][8] - In Q1, commodities show strong seasonal performance, with gold averaging a 4% gain, silver at 3.4%, and oil at 4.85%, influenced by OPEC adjustments and seasonal demand [10][14] - Global assets exhibit a strong resonance during China's "spring market," with increased odds of gains across global equity assets during this period [3][18] AH Market Trends - The current trading window is less sensitive to fundamentals, with the spring market expected to be neutral to strong in 2026 [3] - Historical data shows that A-shares have a higher win rate during the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions, while H-shares perform better from New Year to Spring Festival [3][34] - The main upward trend typically covers the period from the Spring Festival to the start of the Two Sessions, with a 94% overlap with actual upward trends [3] Style Patterns - Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks with a 75% win rate, particularly during the spring market [3] - Growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks, with asymmetric potential returns where losing years are limited to a 4% drop, while winning years can exceed 10% [3] - The spring market shows a clear style switch between large-cap value and small-cap growth stocks, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] Industry Patterns - The spring market does not determine the main industry trends for the year, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, computing, and media showing relative strength [3] - Historical data indicates that communication and military industries have a higher probability of positive returns during the Spring Festival to Two Sessions period [3] - The overlap of top-performing industries during the spring market with the previous year's main trends is relatively low, indicating weak guiding effects [3] Technical and Practical Patterns - Entry points for small-cap stocks are recommended within the week before the Spring Festival, while large-cap growth and ChiNext stocks should be positioned early [3] - Important exit conditions include a single-day drop exceeding 2% and a weak MACD signal [3]