Group 1: A-Share Market - In the recent week (January 26-30, 2026), the estimated net outflow of northbound funds was 900 million yuan, compared to a net outflow of 9.3 billion yuan in the previous week [10] - During the same period, flexible foreign capital estimated a net inflow of 2.5 billion yuan, down from 3.2 billion yuan the previous week [10] - The top active stocks in the northbound trading included Zijin Mining with a total transaction amount of 24.7 billion yuan, accounting for 9% of the stock's weekly trading volume, followed by CATL at 22.4 billion yuan (17%) and Zhongji Xuchuang at 19.3 billion yuan (10%) [10] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - In the week of January 21-27, 2026, a total of 5.9 billion Hong Kong dollars flowed into the Hong Kong stock market, with stable foreign capital experiencing an outflow of 3.5 billion Hong Kong dollars and flexible foreign capital seeing an inflow of 8.2 billion Hong Kong dollars [12] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded an inflow of 12.6 billion Hong Kong dollars, while local funds from Hong Kong or mainland China saw an outflow of 9.1 billion Hong Kong dollars [12] - Sector-wise, foreign capital inflows were significant in metals, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw inflows in software services, oil and petrochemicals, and durable consumer goods [12] Group 3: Asia-Pacific Market - In the Asia-Pacific market, foreign capital saw a net inflow into the Japanese stock market, with overseas investors net inflowing 212.8 billion yen in the latest week ending January 19, 2026, down from 750.5 billion yen the previous week [15] - Cumulatively, since the beginning of 2023, the net inflow into the Japanese stock market has reached 11.7 trillion yen [15] - Conversely, in December, overseas institutional investors experienced a net outflow of 2.52 billion US dollars from the Indian stock market, compared to a net outflow of 430 million US dollars the previous month [17] Group 4: US and European Markets - In December, global mutual funds recorded a net inflow of 32.2 billion US dollars into the US equity market, significantly up from 9.2 billion US dollars in the previous month [19] - Cumulatively, since 2020, the net inflow into the US equity market has reached 723.7 billion US dollars [19] - In Europe, net inflows into the equity markets of the UK, Germany, and France were 1.74 billion US dollars, 970 million US dollars, and 2.16 billion US dollars respectively, compared to the previous month's inflows of 550 million US dollars, 1.17 billion US dollars, and 1.4 billion US dollars [19]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in Q4 2025, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with a decline in the proportion of funds overweighting Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - The total size of actively managed equity public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks in Q4 2025 is 20,356 billion, accounting for 52.2% of the total actively managed equity fund size, down from 52.4% in Q3 2025 [10] - The market value of Hong Kong heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds in Q4 2025 is 3,121 billion, which is a decrease from 3,950 billion in Q3 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, actively managed equity public funds have increased their exposure to cyclical financial sectors while reducing exposure to technology and consumer sectors in Q4 2025 [2][19] - The sectors with increased allocation include non-ferrous metals (6.8%, up 2.3 percentage points), non-bank financials (5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points), and oil and petrochemicals (3.5%, up 2.1 percentage points) [19][26] - The sectors with reduced allocation include consumer discretionary retail (11.0%, down 2.2 percentage points), hardware equipment (3.0%, down 2.0 percentage points), and semiconductors (7.6%, down 2.0 percentage points) [19][26] Group 3 - The concentration of the top ten heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with their combined holding percentage in Q4 2025 being 49.7%, down from 54.0% in Q3 2025 [3][28] - The top three heavy stocks remain consistent with Q3 2025, including Tencent Holdings (holding size of 578 billion, accounting for 18.5%), Alibaba (310 billion, 10.0%), and SMIC (187 billion, 6.0%) [3][28]

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results[1][2][3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月30日 2026年01月31日 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万美元) | 164,501 | 200,966 | 243,710 | 285,592 | 329,911 | | (+/-%) | 21.9% | 22.2% | 21.3% | 17.2% | 15.5% | | 调整后归母净利润(百万美元) | 62,360 | 60,458 | 77,874 | 94,106 | 107,942 | | (+/-%) | 59.5% | -3.1% | 28.8% | 20.8% | 14.7% | | 调整后 EPS（美元） | 24.65 | 23.90 | 30.79 | 37.20 | 42.67 | | EBIT Margin | 43.9% | 49.7% | 36.7% | 39.1% | 40.6% | | 净资产收益率（ROE） | 34.1% | 27.8% | 27.1% | 33.9% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Microsoft reported a strong overall performance in FY26Q2, with total revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY), operating profit of $38.3 billion (up 21% YoY), and net profit of $35.4 billion (up 47% YoY) [1][9] - Azure cloud growth is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with guidance for next quarter's capital expenditure expected to decrease sequentially [2][3] - The company is prioritizing resource allocation towards internal AI products like Copilot rather than cloud business, raising concerns about returns [2] - Microsoft cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, with Azure growing 39% YoY, and commercial bookings increasing by 228% [2][6] - The productivity and business processes segment saw revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), driven by M365 Copilot and E5 [7] - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY), with guidance indicating a sequential decline in FY26Q3 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $81.3 billion, with a breakdown of $34.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $32.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 29% YoY), and $14.3 billion from personal computing (down 3% YoY) [1][10] Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue of $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY), with Azure growing 39% YoY, exceeding guidance of 37% [10] - Productivity and Business Processes: Revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing 17% YoY [7] - Personal Computing: Revenue of $14.3 billion (down 3% YoY), with mixed performance across segments [10] Capital Expenditure and Guidance - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $37.5 billion, with a significant portion allocated to short-term assets like GPUs and CPUs [8] - Guidance for FY26Q3 indicates a sequential decline in capital expenditures due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [8] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for the next quarter include intelligent cloud revenue of $34.1-34.4 billion (up 27%-28% YoY) and productivity and business revenue of $34.25-34.55 billion (up 15%-16% YoY) [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - The company's Q4 2025 revenue reached $59.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 24%, driven by strong advertising revenue growth [1][8] - The company is increasing its capital expenditures significantly, with a projected capital expenditure of $115 to $135 billion for 2026, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 59% to 87% [2][10] - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2026-2027, now expecting $243.7 billion and $285.6 billion respectively, with a new 2028 revenue forecast of $329.9 billion [3] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 overall revenue was $59.9 billion, with advertising revenue at $58.1 billion, both up 24% year-over-year [1][11] - Operating profit for Q4 was $24.7 billion, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 41%, a decrease of 7 percentage points year-over-year [1][11] - Net profit for the quarter was $22.8 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year increase, with a net profit margin of 38% [1][11] Business Highlights - The advertising business continues to grow, with ad impressions up 18% year-over-year, driven by increased user engagement rather than higher ad load [2][8] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance ad targeting and conversion rates, with significant improvements in ad performance metrics [2][9] - The Family of Apps segment generated $58.9 billion in revenue, also a 24% increase year-over-year, while Reality Labs reported $960 million in revenue, down 12% year-over-year [1][19] User Engagement and Advertising Metrics - Daily Active People (DAP) for the Family of Apps reached 3.58 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year [30] - Average Revenue Per Person (ARPPU) was $16.46, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase [30] - The average price per ad increased by 6% year-over-year, supported by higher demand from advertisers [28] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Focus - Capital expenditures for Q4 were $22.1 billion, a 141% increase year-over-year, with a total of $72.2 billion for the year [9][28] - The company emphasizes that efficient AI infrastructure is a strategic advantage, with significant investments planned to support this area [10][2] Earnings Guidance - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 26% to 34% [3][31] - Total expenses for the year are projected to be between $162 billion and $169 billion [3][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Microsoft reported a strong overall performance in FY26Q2, with total revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY), operating profit of $38.3 billion (up 21% YoY), and net profit of $35.4 billion (up 47% YoY) [1][9] - Azure cloud growth is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with guidance for next quarter's capital expenditure expected to decrease sequentially [2][3] - The company is prioritizing resource allocation towards internal AI products like Copilot rather than cloud business, raising concerns about returns [2] - Microsoft cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, with Azure growing 39% YoY, and commercial bookings increasing by 228% [2][6] - The productivity and business processes segment saw revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), driven by M365 Copilot and E5 [7] - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY), with guidance indicating a sequential decline in FY26Q3 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $81.3 billion, with a breakdown of $34.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $32.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 29% YoY), and $14.3 billion from personal computing (down 3% YoY) [1][10] Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue of $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY), with Azure growing 39% YoY, exceeding guidance of 37% [10] - Productivity and Business Processes: Revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing 17% YoY [7] - Personal Computing: Revenue of $14.3 billion (down 3% YoY), with mixed performance across segments [10] Future Outlook - Revenue guidance for the next quarter includes intelligent cloud revenue of $34.1-34.4 billion (up 27%-28% YoY) and productivity and business processes revenue of $34.25-34.55 billion (up 15%-16% YoY) [3] - Operating expenses are expected to be $17.8-17.9 billion, with cost of goods sold projected at $26.65-26.85 billion [3] Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 have been adjusted to $327.8 billion, $373.9 billion, and $433.2 billion respectively, with net profit estimates revised to $123 billion, $146.5 billion, and $172.1 billion [3]

- Quantitative model and factor construction - Model name: None mentioned - Factor name: None mentioned - Model backtesting results - None mentioned - Factor backtesting results - None mentioned

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with meat cattle and raw milk prices anticipated to rise due to domestic and international market conditions [3]. - The pig farming sector is supported by capacity control measures, which are likely to enhance cash flow for leading companies, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [3]. - Poultry supply is expected to stabilize, with leading companies benefiting from demand recovery and higher cash flow returns [3]. - The feed industry is set to gain from deeper industrialization and clear division of labor, allowing leading companies to expand their competitive advantages [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - As of January 23, 2026, the price of live pigs is 12.87 CNY/kg, up 1.42% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 343.33 CNY/head, up 11.09% week-on-week [1][13]. - The industry is witnessing a controlled reduction in production capacity, which is expected to support profitability for low-cost producers [13]. Poultry - The price of chicken seedlings is 1.63 CNY/bird, down 31.80% week-on-week, while the price of broilers is 7.34 CNY/kg, down 1.08% week-on-week [1][14]. - Supply is slightly increasing, and there is a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [3]. Beef - The price of fattened cattle is 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week, and the beef market price is 61.55 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [2][14]. - A new round of price increases for beef is anticipated, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [2]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for a price turning point in 2026 [2][14]. - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is likely to continue, impacting supply dynamics [2]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4072 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while the soybean meal price is 3186 CNY/ton, up 0.31% week-on-week [2][14]. - The feed industry is expected to strengthen due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [2]. Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2331 CNY/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week, with a tightening supply-demand balance expected to support moderate price increases [2][14]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is 15900 CNY/ton, up 1.92% week-on-week, with a positive outlook for the mid-term market [2][14].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益-0.66%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.10%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 8.77%，相对偏股混 合型基金指数超额收益 1.45%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股 基中排名 32.95%分位点（1226/3721）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益-1.26%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 -0.50%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 12.03%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 4.72%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 14.65% 分位点（545/3721）。 本周，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 1.29%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 2.05%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 11.47%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益 4.15%。今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 16.69%分位点（621/3721）。 本周，成长稳健组合绝对收益-1.73%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 -0.97%。本年，成长稳健组合绝对收益 12.8 ...