证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 港股投资周报 金融股领涨，港股精选组合年内上涨 7.92% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 0.49%，相对恒生指数超额收益-1.89%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 7.92%，相对恒生指数超额收益 1.07%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，中国秦发等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为科技、消费、制 造和大金融板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周港股通 50 指数收益最高，累计收益 2.78%；恒生科技 指数收益最低，累计收益-1.38%。 行业指数方面，本周能源业行业收益最高，累计收益 7.44%；医疗保健业行 业收益最低，累计收益-2.72%。 概念板块方面，本周安防监控指数概念板块收益最高，累计收益 27.50%； 卫星导航指数概念板块收益最低，累计收益-9.93%。 金融工程·数量化投资 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 to 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.43% to 71.07% [1] - The growth is driven by both investment gold and gold jewelry, with significant contributions from the rising gold prices and the company's strong brand recognition in Northern China [2][3] - The company is actively innovating its investment gold products, which include high-margin items like festive gold bars and IP collaboration gold bars, while also optimizing its product structure through the introduction of high-margin products in its stores [2][3] Financial Forecasts - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised upwards to 1.062, 1.304, and 1.465 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.4, 12.1, and 11.2 times [3][4] - Revenue growth is projected to accelerate significantly, with an estimated growth rate of 77.29% in 2025, driven by the increasing share of investment gold products in total revenue [4] - The gross margin is expected to decline due to the higher proportion of lower-margin investment gold products, but the overall revenue growth is anticipated to support the company's profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the LCD industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The LCD industry is experiencing a stabilization in capacity, with a concentration of market share expected due to the shutdown and sale of production lines by overseas manufacturers. This is anticipated to enhance the pricing power of LCD TV panel producers, leading to improved profitability [6] - The report highlights the growth potential of leading domestic panel manufacturers like BOE Technology Group, which is well-positioned to benefit from China's consumption upgrade and localization trends [6] Market Performance Review - From December 2025 to January 2026, the panel index increased by 11.55%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component by 5.76 percentage points and 2.53 percentage points, respectively [4] - As of January 20, 2026, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry was 604.92 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.71x, positioned at the 82.5 percentile of the past five years [4][12] Price & Cost Analysis - In January 2026, the prices of various sizes of LCD TV panels increased, with 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch panels priced at $34, $61, $92, $115, and $163 respectively, reflecting increases of 3.0%, 1.7%, 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.6% month-over-month [19] - Omdia forecasts further price increases for February 2026, with expected prices of $36, $63, $94, $117, and $165 for the same sizes, indicating month-over-month increases of 5.9%, 3.3%, 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2% [19] Supply & Demand Dynamics - In December 2025, the global shipment area for large-sized LCD panels grew by 8.82% year-over-year, with notable increases in shipments for TVs (8.74%), monitors (4.44%), notebooks (13.27%), and tablets (21.30%) [5][27] - The report anticipates a 2.31% increase in global large-sized LCD capacity area in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight growth forecast for 2025 [5] Performance Review - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December 2025 reached $6.423 billion, marking a month-over-month increase of 15.52% and a year-over-year increase of 4.71% [57] - The report notes that BOE, TCL, and Huike experienced varying revenue growth rates in December 2025, with BOE's revenue at $1.6 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 8.11% [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the phosphate chemical industry [1][4][5] Core Insights - The phosphate rock supply and demand are in a tight balance, with new energy contributing to incremental growth [1][2] - The wet-process phosphoric acid is the core preparation route in the phosphate chemical industry, gradually replacing the high-energy-consuming thermal process due to its lower energy consumption and simpler equipment [1][16] - Stricter safety and environmental policies are accelerating the exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a continuous optimization of the supply-demand structure in the industry [1][18] - The domestic supply of phosphate rock is tightening due to limited resources and strong environmental constraints, with the price expected to remain high in the long term [1][26][33] Summary by Sections Phosphate Chemical Industry Overview - The phosphate chemical industry includes both wet and thermal processes, with wet-process phosphoric acid being favored due to its lower energy consumption and cost advantages [1][13][16] - The industry is facing increasing pressure from environmental regulations, leading to the closure of many outdated production facilities [1][18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's phosphate rock resources are characterized by scarcity and low quality, with the country holding about 5% of global reserves while contributing nearly half of the world's production [1][26] - The demand for phosphate rock is expected to increase, particularly driven by the growth in new energy applications, which is projected to account for a significant portion of phosphate consumption by 2024 [2][31] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Chuanheng Co., a leading integrated phosphate chemical company with high profit margins supported by self-sufficient high-grade phosphate rock [3][4] - Yuntianhua, a dual leader in phosphate rock and fertilizer with significant resource reserves and stable growth [3][4] - Xingfa Group, a leader in fine phosphate chemicals with a diversified business model [3][4] - Yuntu Holdings, a leader in the phosphate compound fertilizer industry benefiting from tight sulfur supply [3][4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report provides profit forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a favorable outlook for their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 to 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.43% to 71.07% [1]. - The growth is driven by both investment gold and gold jewelry, with a significant increase in the sales of precious metal investment products due to rising gold prices and the brand's recognition in North China [2][3]. - The company is actively innovating its investment gold products, introducing high-margin items such as festive gold bars and collaborative gold bars, which are expected to enhance overall profitability [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised to 1.062, 1.304, and 1.465 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.4, 12.1, and 11.2 times [3][4]. - Revenue growth is projected to accelerate significantly, with an estimated increase of 77.29% in 2025, driven by the rising demand for investment gold, which is expected to account for 19.46% of total revenue [4]. - The gross margin is anticipated to decline due to the increasing proportion of lower-margin investment gold products, although product upgrades are expected to support overall revenue growth [4].

- The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, serving as market indicators, and uses a 250-day high distance metric to represent new high situations[11][12] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of January 30, 2026, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.14%, Shenzhen Component Index 1.62%, CSI 300 1.76%, CSI 500 2.68%, CSI 1000 2.55%, CSI 2000 3.34%, ChiNext Index 1.24%, and STAR 50 Index 2.99%[12][13] - The report also monitors stocks that have reached new highs in the past 20 trading days, with 1606 stocks identified as of January 30, 2026. The industries with the most new high stocks are machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals, while the highest proportions of new high stocks are in non-ferrous metals, defense and military, and petroleum and petrochemical industries[19][20] - The report selects "stable new high stocks" based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability. The selection criteria include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days - Price path stability: Evaluated using the absolute value of price changes over the past 120 days and the sum of absolute daily price changes over the past 120 days - New high sustainability: Average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuity: Average 250-day high distance over the past 5 days[26][28] - The report identifies 50 stable new high stocks, with the most from the cyclical and technology sectors, particularly in basic chemicals and electronics[29][30] - The 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.14%, Shenzhen Component Index 1.62%, CSI 300 1.76%, CSI 500 2.68%, CSI 1000 2.55%, CSI 2000 3.34%, ChiNext Index 1.24%, and STAR 50 Index 2.99%[12][13] - The 250-day high distances for some industry indices are: communication 0.00%, petroleum and petrochemical 0.47%, building materials 1.19%, non-ferrous metals 7.82%, and light manufacturing 1.55%[13] - The 250-day high distances for some concept indices are: paper 0.00%, oil and gas 0.47%, home goods 1.19%, gold 7.82%, agriculture 1.55%, Wind micro-cap stocks 0.00%, and chips 0.47%[15][17] - The proportions of new high stocks in various indices are: CSI 2000 29.75%, CSI 1000 33.60%, CSI 500 40.60%, CSI 300 28.00%, ChiNext Index 32.00%, and STAR 50 Index 42.00%[20][23]

- The report introduces a momentum-based model using the "250-day new high distance" metric to track market trends and identify leading stocks. The formula is defined as: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it reflects the percentage drop from the high[11][12][13] - The report highlights the effectiveness of tracking stocks near their 52-week highs, citing research by George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM methodology, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard" approach. These studies emphasize the predictive power of stocks close to their yearly highs in outperforming others[11][18][21] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative price strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative price strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like cumulative absolute returns over 120 days - Sustained new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[26][28][29] - The report identifies 50 "stable new high stocks" for the week, with the majority belonging to cyclical and technology sectors. Cyclical stocks are dominated by the basic chemicals industry, while technology stocks are led by electronics. Examples include Purui Shares, Asia Integration, and Yuanjie Technology[29][30][32] - Backtesting results show that indices such as CSI 2000, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 have the highest proportion of stocks hitting new highs, with ratios of 29.75%, 33.60%, and 40.60%, respectively. Industry-wise, the highest proportions are observed in non-ferrous metals (70.73%), defense (63.11%), and petrochemicals (62.75%)[19][20][34]

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月30日 债海观潮，大势研判 逆风中震荡 投资策略 · 固定收益 2026年第二期 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券分析师：田地 0755-81982035 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn S0980524090003 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：陈笑楠 021-60375421 chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn S0980524080001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 行情回顾：1月多数债券品种收益率下行；利率债方面，长期限利率债品种收益率下行；信用 ...

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP growth is projected to be 5.0%, consistent with 2024, but showing a "high first, low later" trend[4] - The GDP growth rate and price levels exhibit a clear inverse relationship, with prices under pressure when GDP exceeds 5.0% and improving when below 5.0%[10] Structural Changes - The second industry is expected to decline while the third industry is set to rise, creating a structural optimization that alleviates excess supply pressure[17] - The service sector's growth is anticipated to drive employment and income, thus supporting domestic demand[17] Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with consumption rising and investment weakening, indicating a persistent issue of insufficient domestic demand[23] - Final consumption contributed an average of 2.68% to GDP growth from 2020 to 2025, with 2025 specifically at 2.6%[37] Future Outlook - For 2026, GDP growth is expected to slightly decline to around 4.8%, with a focus on structural optimization under the "anti-involution" framework[38] - Policies will shift towards fostering service sector growth and consumer incentives to counterbalance short-term growth pressures from supply adjustments[40] Inflation Trends - In 2026, China is projected to gradually emerge from deflation, with both PPI and CPI growth rates expected to rise[45] - Investment in high-tech industries is anticipated to significantly outpace overall growth, enhancing efficiency in traditional sectors through innovation[45]

Group 1 - In January, most bond yields declined, with long-term government bonds seeing a decrease in yields, and all credit bond types also experiencing lower yields, particularly a significant narrowing of the 3-year credit spread [5][19][20] - The default amount in January saw a substantial decrease to 9.93 billion, down from 22.64 billion in the previous month, indicating an improvement in credit quality [28] - The average interest rates for R001 and R007 stabilized around 1.40% and 1.54% respectively, reflecting a return to a more relaxed monetary market after the year-end liquidity crunch [12][93] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is showing signs of stabilization, with January's Markit manufacturing and services PMI at 51.9 and 52.5 respectively, indicating steady expansion [33] - The CPI in the U.S. showed a mild increase of 2.7% year-on-year in December, suggesting stable inflation expectations [38] - Japan's inflation rate significantly decreased, with December CPI at 2.1%, down from 2.9% in the previous month, indicating a cooling economic environment [43] Group 3 - Domestic economic indicators show a recovery trend, with the GDP growth rate for December at 4.7%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month [5][51] - The high-frequency macro diffusion index from Guosen indicates a strong domestic economic growth momentum in January, outperforming historical averages [79] - The monetary policy is focused on structural adjustments, with a reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates to support economic growth [104][106] Group 4 - The report highlights a shift in demand-side policies from traditional investments to fostering the service industry and consumer incentives, aiming to counter short-term growth pressures from supply adjustments [5][139] - The anticipated GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 4.8%, with a gradual recovery expected throughout the year [90][139] - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing support for small and medium-sized enterprises and expanding consumer financing options to stimulate demand [106][139]