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医药生物行业跟踪周报:国产创新药闪耀ASCO国际舞台-20250525
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 14:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 1.8% this week and 4.3% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.9% and 5.6% respectively [3][8] - The H-share biotechnology index has seen a rise of 6.7% this week and 36.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by -7.4% and 19% [3][8] - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of domestic innovative drugs presented at the ASCO conference, with 25 oral presentations and 24 rapid oral presentations, marking a new high [14] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - A-share raw materials (+4.0%), chemical drugs (+3.6%), biological products (+1.7%), medical services (+1.4%), and pharmaceutical commerce (+1.2%) have shown notable price increases, while medical devices (+0.5%) and traditional Chinese medicine (+0.2%) have seen smaller gains [3][8] - Top performers in A-shares this week include Shengguojian (+100%), Haichen Pharmaceutical (+52%), and Shutaishen (+49%), while the largest declines were seen in Xin Ganjiang (-12%), Gongdong Medical (-10%), and Jinhao Medical (-9%) [3][8] R&D Developments - The report notes significant advancements in the development of innovative drugs, particularly in antibody and ADC molecules, with several companies like China Biopharmaceuticals and Innovent Biologics showcasing promising clinical data [14] - GlaxoSmithKline's IL-5 monoclonal antibody has been approved for treating COPD, marking a milestone as the first IL-5 drug approved for this indication [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a ranking of favored sub-industries: innovative drugs > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies > pharmaceutical commerce [9] - Recommended stocks based on growth potential include BeiGene, Hengrui Medicine, and Innovent Biologics, while undervalued stocks in traditional Chinese medicine include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Dong'e Ejiao [9]
携程集团-S:2025Q1业绩点评:利润好于预期,继续看好国际业务增长-20250525
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 14:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]
携程集团-S(09961):利润好于预期,继续看好国际业务增长
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 14:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]
公用事业行业跟踪周报:2025M1-4月实现装机容量同比+15.9%、全社会用电量+3.1%-20250525
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 13:15
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 2025M1-4 月实现装机容量同比+15.9%、全 社会用电量+3.1% 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] ◼ 风险提示:需求不及预期、电价煤价波动风险、流域来水不及预期等 2025 年 05 月 25 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书:S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐亚辉 执业证书:S0600520070005 tangyh@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/5/27 2024/9/24 2025/1/22 2025/5/22 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《广东 136 号文细则征求意见,增量 机制电量不超过 90%,海风/其他风电 /光伏分类竞价》 2025-05-20 《需求偏弱美国&国内气价回落,库 存同比偏低欧洲气价微增;对美 LNG 关税降至 25%》 2025-05-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之 ...
汽车周观点:5月第3周乘用车环比-14%,继续看好汽车板块
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 12:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by AI, robotics, and favorable market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the SW automotive index up by 1.2% this week, while the commercial vehicle segment showed the highest increase at 9.4% [2][3]. - Key developments include BYD's new pricing strategies and significant revenue growth reported by companies like Xiaopeng Motors and Leap Motor [2][3]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles in 2025, projecting a retail sales volume of 23.69 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [48][49]. Weekly Market Review - The total number of passenger vehicles insured this week was 381,000, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 14% [47]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.3%, with a total of 215,000 units sold [47]. - The report highlights the performance of specific stocks, with Jianghuai Automobile, Jingwei Hengrun, and Sai Lisi showing notable gains [2][3]. Industry Trends - The report identifies three main investment themes for 2025: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [3]. - The report predicts that L3 autonomous driving technology will see significant adoption, with a penetration rate of 27% among new energy vehicles by 2025 [51]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to see a 16.3% year-on-year increase in insurance volume, driven by domestic demand and supportive policies [53]. Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [2][3]. - Leap Motor's Q1 revenue reached 10.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 187.1% [2][3]. - BYD has introduced significant discounts on its vehicles, with price reductions of up to 53,000 yuan for certain models [2][3].
老白干酒:秉节持重,厚积薄发-20250525
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 12:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on stabilizing its operations amid a challenging white liquor consumption environment, emphasizing consumer-centric strategies and maintaining price rigidity [7] - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 5.47 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year growth, while controlling costs to improve profit margins [7] - The company is committed to long-term brand building and product upgrades, aiming to enhance quality and service [7] - The company is strengthening its channel construction and promoting its brand, with a focus on core products and effective market response [7] - Despite short-term revenue pressures, cost control measures are expected to improve net profit margins, with updated net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 880 million, 1 billion, and 1.18 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.36 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.46 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.97% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 787 million yuan in 2024 to 880 million yuan in 2025, reflecting an 11.85% growth [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 0.96 yuan in 2025 [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.87 in 2024 to 17.77 in 2025 [8]
机械设备行业跟踪周报:持续推荐各个品类设备景气上行的工程机械-20250525
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 11:44
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 挖掘机作为工程机械行业的"晴雨表",在连续数年的下滑后于 24H2 实现筑底反转, 需求持续复苏。挖机销量持续上行的同时,景气度逐渐向非挖转移,2025 年以来道路 机械呈高增趋势。2025 年 4 月,压路机/摊铺机/平地机销量分别为 1713/200/ 756 台, 分别同比+36%/52%/22%,1-4 月累计同比+30%/+38%/+20%。由于起重机与地产行业 相关性较强,需求复苏较行业处于滞后位置。2025 年来,工程起重机整体筑底企稳趋 势较为明显,2025 年 1-4 月,汽车起重机/履带起重机/随车起重机累计销量分别为 7355/1021/ 9014 台,分别同比-9%/+0%/-0%。展望后续,国内挖机率先复苏&非挖筑底 企稳,出口新兴市场地区景气度持续,工程机械行业有望迎来国内外共振。相关个股: 三一重工、某全品类龙头、中联重科、柳工、山推股份、恒立液压。 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 1.推荐组合:北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、 ...
老白干酒(600559):秉节持重,厚积薄发
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 11:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is facing short-term pressures due to cyclical adjustments in the white liquor consumption environment, but it is focusing on stabilizing prices and maintaining market stability while optimizing its product structure [7] - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 5.47 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while controlling costs to improve profit margins [7] - The company is committed to long-term brand building and product upgrades, aiming to enhance quality and service [7] - The report updates the net profit forecast for 2025 to 880 million yuan, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 996.63 million yuan and 1.18 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a favorable P/E ratio [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.36 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.46 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.97% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 787 million yuan in 2024 to 880 million yuan in 2025, reflecting an 11.85% growth [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 0.96 yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 65.95% in 2024 to 66.82% in 2025 [8]
周观:关注存款利率下调后的大行同业存单配置价值(2025年第20期)
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 11:35
◼ 屋销售总数环比、5 月 PMI 初值和失业救济金等一系列数据公布,后 市美债收益率如何变化?上周(0519-0523)美债收益率长端周 k 连续 4 周收阳,同时短端在上周结束了 3 周连阳,长短端的分化导致期限利 差继续走扩,联同市场对美债短期供需失衡的担忧,曲线趋向"熊陡"; 同时如果从 25 年以来看变化,收益率曲线整体是下移的,因此目前的 上移也可以理解为对联储降息预期收敛的某种短期修复。困难的是我们 很难区别结构性因素(美债供需)和周期性因素(货币政策)谁为主导, 这部分来源于所谓内生性。我们认为如下情景或为大概率情景:有效关 税增量难以补充特朗普减税政策带来的核算赤字增量,更多的供给由结 构发生变化的需求所消化,其中美外部相对需求下降,美内部相对需求 上升;公共部门相对需求下降,私人部门相对需求上升,同时联储 25 年 降息 1-2 次,减缓缩表以平衡鸽鹰关切并支持实际上扩张性的财政政 策。基于以上情景假想,美债长端或偏箱体震荡,区间范围 4-4.5%, 短端(2 年期而非 3 月期)易降难升,久期策略整体建议取短。我们在 延续上周观点的基础上,结合增量数据,思考如下:(1)成屋销售持续 疲软 ...
汽车周观点:5月第3周乘用车环比-14%,继续看好汽车板块-20250525
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-25 11:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by AI, robotics, and favorable market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the SW automotive index increasing by 1.2% this week, while the passenger vehicle segment saw a decline of 14% in insurance registrations compared to the previous week [2][47]. - Key developments include BYD's promotional activities leading to significant price reductions, and strong quarterly earnings reports from companies like Xiaopeng Motors and Leap Motor, indicating robust growth in the electric vehicle market [2][3]. - The report highlights the expected increase in domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles to 23.69 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [48]. Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked 4th among A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this week, with commercial vehicles performing particularly well [7][12]. - The report notes that the commercial vehicle segment, especially SW commercial cargo vehicles, showed the best performance this week [15]. Industry Trends - The report identifies three main investment themes for 2025: AI robotics, AI smart technology, and favorable market conditions, with a particular focus on the robotics sector showing the most potential for growth [3]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.3% this week, indicating a strong upward trend in the adoption of electric vehicles [47]. Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, while Leap Motor's Q1 revenue reached 10.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 187.1% [2][3]. - BYD has introduced significant price cuts for its vehicles, with discounts reaching up to 53,000 yuan, which may stimulate demand [2][3]. - The report also mentions the upcoming launch of the S800 model by Jianghuai Automobile, expected by the end of May [2][3].