证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 人形量产稳步推进，欧洲电车销量恢复 2025 年 05 月 11 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 投资建议：宁德时代（动力&储能电池全球龙头、盈利能力和排产均超预期）、三花智控（热管理全球龙 头、特斯拉机器人总成空间巨大）、比亚迪（电动车销量持续向好且结构升级、全民智驾超预期）、汇川 技术（通用自动化弱复苏龙头 Alpha 明显、联合动力持续超预期）、阳光电源（逆变器全球龙头、海外大 储优势显著、估值极低）、科达利（结构件全球龙头稳健增长、大力布局机器人优势显著打造第二增长曲 线）、亿纬锂能（动力&储能锂电上量盈利向好并走出特色之路、消费类电池稳健）、雷赛智能（伺服控 制器龙头企业、机器人关节批量优势明显）、浙江荣泰（云母龙头增长确定、微型丝杠优势明显）、富临 精工（高压实铁锂领先、机器人布局深厚）、北特科技（汽零稳步增长、丝杠具备领先优势）、大金重工 （海风出口布局厚积薄发、量利双升超预期）、斯菱股份（车后轴承市场稳定增长、打造谐波第二增长曲 线）、祥鑫科技（汽零和结构件稳健、积极布局人形）、德业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Huawei's UB Mesh architecture addresses the cost and performance challenges associated with large model training, achieving a 2.04 times cost efficiency improvement compared to the Clos architecture [3]. - The UB Mesh architecture utilizes a 4D/5D topology, allowing for high bandwidth, low-cost, and high-reliability AI training clusters, significantly reducing the reliance on expensive network infrastructure [6][7]. - The report highlights the potential for Huawei's Ascend 920 series chips to capture a significant market share in domestic computing power demand, driven by their innovative capabilities and the ongoing trend of domestic computing power substitution [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The UB Mesh architecture is designed to meet the demands for large-scale AI training clusters, providing a flexible multi-dimensional aggregation that reduces transmission overhead [6]. - The architecture's reliance on short-distance direct interconnections minimizes costs and enhances system reliability, with 86.7% of the system's cabling being passive [6]. Performance Comparison - Under the same training benchmarks, the UB Mesh architecture demonstrated similar performance to the Clos architecture while significantly lowering hardware costs, with a reduction in network infrastructure costs from 67% to 20% [3]. - The operational cost savings from reduced use of high-performance switches and optical modules amounted to a 35% decrease [3]. Market Opportunities - The report identifies several companies in the supply chain that may benefit from the advancements in Huawei's technology, including SMIC, Huafeng Technology, and others [7].

◼ 降准降息落地，叠加关税战后的首份外贸数据公布，债市将如何反应？ 2025 年 5 月 9 日，海关总署公布了我国 4 月进出口数据。按美元计价， 2025 年 4 月，我国进出口总值 5352 亿美元，同比增长 4.6%。其中，出 口 3157 亿美元，同比增长 8.1%；进口 2195 亿美元，同比增长-0.2%； 贸易顺差 962 亿美元，去年同期为顺差 720 亿美元。从主要出口经济体 来看，占我国 2025 年 4 月出口金额当月值前三位的依然为东盟、美国 和欧盟，其对整体出口金额的拉动率分别为 3.98%、-2.2%和 1.22%。自 美国宣布对等关税政策后，由于外部环境的不确定性陡增，且东南亚国 家目前仍有关税豁免，因此我国出口呈现出明显的"抢出口"和转口贸 易特征，东盟对出口的拉动较 3 月上升 1.81 个百分点。同时，在 5 月 7 日召开的新闻发布会上，潘行长宣布了降准降息落地，在我们此前发布 的报告《双降之后，债券市场怎么走？》中，已经有详细的分析。在此 我们对观点进行重申，由于新闻发布会上，潘行长提及了"10 年期国债 收益率徘徊在 1.65%左右"，市场将其作为了一个"锚"，债券 ...

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.99%，在全部一级行业 中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金属板块上涨 1.31%，工业金属板块上涨 0.88%，能源金属板块上涨 2.42%，金属新材料板块上 涨 5.46%，小金属板块上涨 4.74%。工业金属方面，周初市场依旧跟随上周五超预 期的美国大非农数据运行，工业金属价格整体有所上涨；5 月 8 日美联储 FOMC 会 议，鲍威尔在宣布利率维持不变的同时再次重申了联储对于后续数据的依赖性，美 元指数与美债利率短线走强，工业金属价格回落。贵金属方面，本周美国总统特朗 普宣布美英达成贸易协定；此外中美宣布将于瑞士展开首次贸易谈话。随着关税局 势的日益缓和，以及美国经济数据依旧维持韧性，黄金仍处于回调整固阶段，我们 预计随着关税对经济的影响逐步显现，金价仍有进一步上行潜力。 ◼ 周观点： 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场延续上周非农交易，美联储鹰派发言压 制工业金属上行空间 增持（维持） 2025 年 05 月 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250511 美国 4 月 CPI 前瞻：开始验收关税冲击幅度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ◼ 海外政治：美英贸易磋商取得阶段性成果，中美高层接触释放缓和信号。 英国和美国于本周四（5 月 8 日）宣布一项降低部分商品关税的协议。 虽然特朗普此前宣布的对世界各国进口产品征收 10%的关税仍然有效， 并且仍然适用于进入美国的大多数英国商品，但该协议降低或取消了英 国部分出口产品的关税，包括汽车、钢铁和铝。特朗普在社交媒体平台 将此协议定性为"公平、开放、互惠"的贸易安排，并借机宣示其贸易 谈判策略的成效。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特亦同步透露， 另有二十余项贸易协议正处于谈判收尾阶段。需注意的是，美英贸易谈 判的特殊性限制了其外推价值：其一，美国对英贸易长期保持顺差，特 朗普政府核心关切的贸易失衡问题在此次谈判中并非核心议题；其二， 协议内容仅针对特定商品条款展开，而非如英印自贸协定般构建全面经 贸框架。因此，美英谈判进展或难以直接映射美国与其他经济体的谈判 逻辑。在中美关系方面，双方高层于 5 月 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行近 8 小时的实质性磋商，系 ...

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US and UK announced a trade agreement reducing tariffs on certain goods, including automobiles, steel, and aluminum, while maintaining a 10% tariff on most UK imports[2] - The US-China high-level talks on May 11 signal a potential easing of tensions, with Trump suggesting a possible reduction of tariffs on China to 80%[2] - The trade negotiations are complex, with the US maintaining a trade surplus with the UK, limiting the broader implications for other trade discussions[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and CPI Forecast - The April CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% and 2.8% respectively[4] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation rose to 3.63%, while the three-year expectation increased from 3% to 3.17%[3] - The April ISM Services PMI reached 51.6, indicating growth, while the trade deficit widened by 14% to $140.5 billion in March[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following trade agreement news, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 7.01 basis points to 4.378%, and the dollar index strengthened by 0.31% to 100.34[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices saw declines of 0.47% and 0.27% respectively, while gold prices increased by 2.61% to $3,325 per ounce[3] - The overall market sentiment improved due to trade negotiations, leading to a narrowing of stock market losses[3] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell emphasized the inflation risks posed by tariffs, indicating that the Fed will be cautious about interest rate cuts[3] - The Fed maintained its interest rate level during the May FOMC meeting, reflecting concerns over economic uncertainty and stagflation risks[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a 2.3% growth for Q2 2025, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates a 2.42% growth[3]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.25%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.10 percentage points from April, while the demand index increased by 0.02 percentage points[7] - The real estate sector shows a recovery with a 2.0% year-on-year increase in sales area for 30 major cities, compared to a -12.1% decline in April[6] Financing and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -1.00%, up 0.06 percentage points, indicating a potential increase in social financing growth due to the issuance of special government bonds[11] - In April 2025, new RMB loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 750 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous year[14] - The expected social financing scale for April is between 1.5 trillion and 1.6 trillion, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% due to a low base effect from the previous year[14] Export and Trade - The U.S. signals a potential easing of tariffs, with Trump stating that the 145% tariffs on China are unsustainable, which may support short-term export growth[6] - The "grab transfer" phenomenon is expected to support export growth in the second quarter, despite long-term risks related to U.S. manufacturing repatriation[6] Inflation and Prices - Brent crude oil prices have decreased to $62.05 per barrel, down $1.28 from the previous week, indicating a continued decline in oil prices[38] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.88 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY/kg, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 4.38 CNY/kg, down 0.10 CNY/kg[38] Market Operations - The central bank conducted 836.1 billion CNY in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion CNY for the week[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown varied performance, with the insurance industry outperforming the CSI 300 index recently, indicating a potential recovery and investment opportunity [8][9]. - Significant reforms in public funds are expected to enhance the industry's quality and performance, particularly through a new fee structure linked to fund performance [13][17]. - The insurance sector is anticipated to increase equity investments, supported by regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing and invigorating the capital market [23][25]. - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with trust and futures industries adapting to new market conditions [30][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the recent trading period (May 6-9, 2025), the insurance sector rose by 2.89%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 1.81%, compared to a 2.00% rise in the CSI 300 index [8][9]. - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has decreased by 3.52%, while the overall non-bank financial sector has fallen by 8.46% [9]. 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Insights 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with May's average daily trading volume reaching 15,242 billion CNY, a 62.27% year-on-year increase [13][14]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a new action plan to promote high-quality development in public funds, focusing on performance-based fee structures [17][18]. 2.2 Insurance - Regulatory bodies are expanding the scope for long-term insurance investments, aiming to inject more capital into the market [23][25]. - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.52-0.84 times the 2025E P/EV, indicating a historical low and potential for growth [25]. 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry is experiencing a transition phase, with a notable decline in profits, while the futures market is seeing increased trading volumes and revenues [30][31]. - In March 2025, the futures market recorded a trading volume of 734 million contracts, with a transaction value of 61.59 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [31][37]. 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the insurance sector highest, followed by securities and other multi-financial services, recommending companies such as New China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and CITIC Securities for investment [41][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the potential in AI robotics, smart technology, and favorable market conditions for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - In the first week of May, the total number of compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles was 416,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.9% but a month-on-month increase of 26.5% [2][49]. - The SW automotive index increased by 0.5%, with the best-performing segments being motorcycles and other vehicles (+2.7%) and automotive parts (+2.4%) [2][15]. - Key developments include the launch of the 2025 model of the Li Auto L series, which features upgrades in intelligence and battery technology, while the official pricing remains unchanged [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked 14th in A-shares and 7th in Hong Kong stocks this week, with the motorcycle segment showing the best performance [7][14]. - The report highlights that the automotive parts sector's valuation has increased, while the valuations for SW automotive and passenger vehicles have decreased [33][42]. Industry Changes - Significant changes in the industry include Li Auto's release of upgraded models, Geely's plan to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, and a new client acquisition for a subsidiary of Wencan [2][3][61]. - The report predicts a total retail sales volume of 23.83 million units for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [50][51]. Company Tracking - The report tracks several key companies, including Tesla, Li Auto, and Geely, noting specific developments such as the launch of new models and strategic acquisitions [62][63]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame Technology in the context of smart driving technology advancements [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [3]. Core Insights - In the first week of May, the total number of compulsory insurance for passenger cars was 416,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.9% but a month-on-month increase of 26.5% [2][49]. - The SW automotive index increased by 0.5%, with the best-performing segments being motorcycles and others (+2.7%) and automotive parts (+2.4%) [2]. - The report highlights significant developments, including the launch of the 2025 model of Li Auto's L series, which features upgrades in intelligence and battery technology, while maintaining the same official guide price [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked 14th in A-shares and 7th in Hong Kong stocks this week [7][10]. - The SW motorcycle and other segments performed the best within the automotive sector this week [15]. - The report indicates that the automotive parts sector's valuation has risen, while the valuations for SW automotive, passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles have decreased [33]. Industry Trends - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles throughout the year, driven by new scrappage and replacement policies, projecting a retail sales forecast of 23.83 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [50]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 48.4%, with 201,000 units sold in the first week of May, marking a week-on-week decrease of 13.9% [49]. - The report predicts that the competition in intelligent driving among automakers will intensify in 2025, with L3 automation expected to penetrate 28% of new energy vehicles [53]. Company-Specific Developments - Geely Automobile plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position [2][3]. - The report notes that Wenchan's subsidiary has secured a new client for a three-in-one motor shell, with expected production starting in the second half of 2025 and projected sales of 200-250 million yuan over five years [2][3]. - The report also highlights the performance of covered stocks, with Geely Automobile, Zhongding, and Li Auto showing significant gains this week [24].