Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, a nominal GDP growth rate of at least 5.5% is crucial to achieve the long-term goal of reaching the per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035 [1][17] - The recovery of nominal GDP growth is primarily dependent on price levels, with a target of returning the GDP deflator index to an average annual growth of +1.7% from 2012 to 2025, combined with a real GDP growth rate of over 4.4% [1][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer demand to address the historical negative growth in service prices, which is not effectively resolved by supply-side policies alone [1][17] Fixed Income Analysis - The report highlights that non-ETF component bonds of the Sci-Tech bonds exhibit higher valuation yields and credit spreads compared to ETF component bonds, indicating a relative value in switching to these non-component bonds [3][4] - It is noted that 14.79% of the non-ETF component bonds have credit spreads exceeding 40 basis points, suggesting a larger selection of bonds with potential spread compression compared to ETF component bonds [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a more profound and longer-lasting impact compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on market-driven measures rather than heavy administrative intervention [5][6] Company-Specific Insights - Satellite Chemical's H1 2025 revenue reached 23.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, with net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year, indicating strong performance [10][11] - The company has resolved supply chain risks related to U.S.-China ethane trade, allowing for stable operations moving forward [11] - The high-performance catalyst new material project has officially launched, with plans to invest 3 billion yuan, which is expected to drive future growth [11] Industry Performance - The report on Guizhou Moutai indicates a stable revenue growth of 9.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 8.9%, although series liquor sales faced pressure [16] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 93.2 billion yuan for 2025, with slight adjustments for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a stable outlook despite market challenges [16] - The report on 361 Degrees shows steady growth driven by e-commerce and offline efficiency improvements, maintaining a profit forecast of 1.3 billion yuan for 2025 [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid growth in its intelligent business, with overseas contributions adding incremental revenue, resulting in performance exceeding expectations [1] - The company focuses on its core business, with significant growth in intelligent driving and cockpit businesses, driven by technological advancements and increasing customer demand [9] - The global strategy is progressing steadily, with new production capacities established in Indonesia and Mexico, and a smart factory in Spain expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.2 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [9] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 369 billion yuan, 462 billion yuan, and 565 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 25%, and 22% respectively [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 27.6 billion yuan, 36.7 billion yuan, and 47.1 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 37%, 33%, and 28% respectively [9] Business Segment Performance - In H1 2025, the intelligent cockpit business generated revenue of 95 billion yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year, while the intelligent driving business saw revenue of 41 billion yuan, a significant increase of 55.49% year-on-year [9] - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 20.2%, with overseas gross margins reaching 29.0%, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the intelligent driving components sector, with a strong outlook for long-term growth [9] - The company is expanding its product offerings and optimizing its product mix to maintain steady revenue growth and enhance customer acquisition [9]

北交所定期报告 20250813 发改委超长期特别国债支持设备更新投资 补助资金下达完毕，北证 50 收涨 0.84% 证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 ◼ 今日新股：无 风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不及 预期等。 2025 年 08 月 13 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600525070008 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中美关税再次暂缓，三部门印发个 人消费贷》 2025-08-12 《新能源车拉动汽车出口增长，北证 50 指数收涨 1.18% 》 2025-08-11 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 东吴证券研究所 1/7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with high-end new materials providing future growth momentum [3] - The high-performance catalyst new materials project has officially launched, with plans to invest 3 billion yuan, leveraging the company's technological advantages to create an integrated R&D platform for high-performance catalysts and high-end new materials [3] - The company has resumed normal operations following the resolution of supply chain risks related to U.S.-China ethane trade, which is expected to enhance its operational stability and leverage its advantages in light hydrocarbon resources and integrated industrial chains [8] Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 23.46 billion yuan (up 20.9% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.74 billion yuan (up 33.4% year-on-year) [8] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.13 billion yuan (up 5.1% year-on-year, down 9.7% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 1.18 billion yuan (up 13.7% year-on-year, down 25.1% quarter-on-quarter) [8] - The company's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 6.6 billion, 8 billion, and 9.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.7, 8.0, and 6.5 times based on the closing price on August 12, 2025 [9]

Economic Growth Targets - The nominal GDP growth target during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is set at no less than 5.5% to ensure the achievement of the 2035 vision goal[1] - To reach the 2035 goal of per capita GDP at the level of a moderately developed country, nominal GDP growth must average at least 5.4% over the next decade[1] - The average nominal GDP growth over the past eight quarters was only 4.2%, indicating a gap from the medium- to long-term target[1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The key to recovering nominal GDP growth lies in the price level; if the GDP deflator returns to the average level of 1.7% from 2012 to 2025, nominal GDP growth could reach 6.1%[1] - The GDP deflator averaged -0.9% over the past eight quarters, with a significant negative growth in service prices, necessitating a boost in consumer demand to recover service prices[1][2] Long-term Economic Strategy - The long-term economic growth strategy consists of three levels: the highest is the "three-step" strategy, the middle is the doubling target, and the lowest is the annual growth target[1] - Achieving the doubling target requires an average annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2020 to 2035, with a projected average growth rate of 5.4% for 2021-2025[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks to achieving the 2035 goals include potential long-term appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which could enhance the dollar-denominated per capita GDP[2] - Changes in real estate, consumption, exports, and population dynamics could significantly impact future economic growth and price levels[2]

Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[6] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected at 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and recorded at 3.06%[6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.31%[4] - The market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a decline in the dollar index below 98 and a rise in US stocks[4] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market expectations suggest 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but the analysis indicates a potential adjustment down to 2 cuts (in September and December) or even 1 cut (in October)[5] - There is an identified risk of at least an 11 basis point correction in the current rate cut expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on the dollar index and short-term interest rates[5] Economic Outlook - The rebound in used car prices and ongoing tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts prices contribute to inflation dynamics, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term trends over short-term data fluctuations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's eventual rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases[5]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to be 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and actual was 3.06%, with discrepancies attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues[1] Inflation Structure - The rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airfare and hotel prices contributed to the inflation increase[1] - Core goods CPI month-on-month slightly increased from 0.20% to 0.21%, while transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%[1] - Housing services rose from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner’s equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) at 0.28% and 0.26% respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields to 3.72% and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.31%[1] - The dollar index fell below 98, while gold prices decreased, and U.S. stocks and silver prices increased[1] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market pricing suggests 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but there is an anticipated adjustment of at least 11 basis points downward[1] - The optimistic scenario for rate cuts is two times (September and December), while the pessimistic scenario is one time (October)[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overreach in Trump’s policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.705 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 858 million yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. The lower profit growth compared to revenue is attributed to a decrease in interest income and other earnings [7] - The company maintains a strong market position with a focus on product upgrades and channel innovation, particularly through the expansion of "super stores" [7] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.62 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to a low valuation with P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 8.518 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.990 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.57% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 961.43 million yuan in 2023 to 1.616 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.89% [1] Segment Performance - In terms of product categories, footwear outperformed apparel, with adult and children's footwear showing strong growth. Adult apparel revenue grew by 10.9%, while children's apparel saw a 11.4% increase [7] - Online sales experienced significant growth, increasing by 45.0% year-on-year, while offline sales saw a slight decline of 1.2% [7] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin slightly increased to 41.5% in H1 2025, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.0% [7] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 524 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.2% [7]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that loan demand is expected to decline in July, while social financing growth is projected to remain stable [1][22] - The ECI supply index is at 50.06%, showing a slight decrease, while the demand index is at 49.90%, indicating a contraction in both supply and demand [22] - The report highlights a potential rebound in CPI due to rising commodity prices, which may affect market expectations for interest rate cuts in September [1][23] Industry Analysis - The report discusses historical capacity adjustment cases, emphasizing that government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing capacity imbalances [2][4] - It notes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment [2] - The "反内卷" policy is expected to differ from previous supply-side reforms, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative interventions [6][7] Company Insights - For Hehuang Pharmaceutical, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to $41.4 million due to asset sales, while future projections have been revised downwards due to delays in product launches [11] - For Dazhong Media, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, reflecting the impact of the "碰一碰" business model on profit elasticity and cost optimization [12] - For Di'er Laser, the company reported a 29.2% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in the photovoltaic equipment sector [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 3.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, with a gross margin of 36.8%, up 1.43 percentage points [7] - The company's product mix optimization has driven gross margin growth, while scale effects have improved net profit margin [7] - The company has received domestic and international orders for its 8K chips, indicating strong market recognition and technical capabilities [7] - AIoT products are rapidly expanding, with Wi-Fi chip sales significantly increasing, reflecting enhanced market penetration and product competitiveness [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 73.1 billion yuan, 88.32 billion yuan, and 103.91 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit expectations slightly raised [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.371 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.14%, while net profit is expected to be 498.04 million yuan, down 31.46% [1] - For 2024, total revenue is expected to rise to 5.926 billion yuan, a 10.34% increase, with net profit forecasted at 821.92 million yuan, a 65.03% increase [1] - By 2025, total revenue is projected to reach 7.310 billion yuan, a 23.34% increase, with net profit expected at 1.06093 billion yuan, a 29.08% increase [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.95 yuan in 2024, 2.52 yuan in 2025, and 3.35 yuan in 2026 [1]