证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电网设备 金盘科技（688676） 2025 年三季报点评：业绩符合市场预期，加 码布局 SST 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,668 | 6,901 | 8,838 | 10,843 | 12,929 | | 同比（%） | 40.50 | 3.50 | 28.07 | 22.69 | 19.24 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 504.66 | 574.42 | 783.79 | 1,037.58 | 1,318.38 | | 同比（%） | 78.15 | 13.82 | 36.45 | 32.38 | 27.06 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.70 | 2.26 | 2.87 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 61.50 | 54.03 | 39.60 | 29.91 | 23.54 | [Table_Tag ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall credit expansion of the entire industry is moderate, showing no significant momentum compared to the past. The non - current liabilities, financing inflows, and investment expenditures all indicate that the economy is in a slow - repair process, and the probability of a rapid turnaround in the economic fundamentals in the short term is low [1]. - There is still significant structural differentiation among industries in credit expansion. Different industries show different trends in non - current liabilities, financing inflows, and investment expenditures, presenting a "structural bias + uneven rhythm" mild recovery situation [2]. - Industries currently in the credit expansion stage, such as light manufacturing, electronics, basic chemicals, and public utilities, are recommended for credit bond allocation. Industries in credit contraction, like real estate, food and beverage, beauty care, and household appliances, suggest focusing on credit bonds of enterprises with controllable refinancing pressure and asset impairment risks [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The overall credit expansion of the entire industry is moderate, showing no significant momentum compared to the past 1.1 Non - current liabilities: Scale expansion continues, but growth rate remains low - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total non - current liabilities of listed companies in the entire industry reached 20.28 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.62% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.52%. The growth rate is at a low or medium - low level compared to historical data, indicating that the willingness of Chinese enterprises to expand credit through long - term bank loans and bond issuance is not significantly increasing [9][10]. 1.2 Financing inflows: The rhythm is stable, and the support from funding sources remains - In the first half of 2025, the financing inflows of listed companies in the entire industry reached 9.95 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.89% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12.51%. The growth rate is similar to recent years but slower than before 2023, suggesting that the ability and willingness of enterprises to obtain funds through medium - and long - term bank credit and bonds have not significantly increased, and the credit expansion is still moderate [12][15]. 1.3 Investment expenditures: Year - on - year growth is continuously negative, and credit implementation is somewhat weak - In the first half of 2025, the investment expenditures of listed companies in the entire industry were 2.13 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.71% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.83%. The year - on - year data has been in a downward trend since 2024, indicating that enterprises' ability and willingness to carry out production investment activities by increasing leverage are still weak, and the signal of credit expansion is not obvious [18][19]. 2. Structural differentiation among industries remains the main theme of credit expansion 2.1 Non - current liabilities - In the first half of 2025, industries such as comprehensive, public utilities, building decoration, light manufacturing, and basic chemicals had high year - on - year growth rates of non - current liabilities, while industries like household appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and computer had significant contractions. The differentiation is affected by industry cycle attributes and factors such as consumer demand and policies [25][26]. 2.2 Financing inflows - In the first half of 2025, industries such as household appliances, coal, social services, electronics, light manufacturing, public utilities, non - ferrous metals, and environmental protection had high year - on - year growth rates of financing inflows, while industries like communication, real estate, food and beverage, and social services had negative growth rates. Credit expansion is shifting from traditional industries to industries related to high - end technology manufacturing, consumption upgrading, and export [30][31]. 2.3 Investment expenditures - In the first half of 2025, industries such as coal, automobiles, comprehensive, and electronics showed certain resilience in investment expenditures, while industries like real estate, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and public utilities had weak performance. Many industries have room for improvement in investment implementation, and some industries' investment funds may come from internal sources [33][34]. 2.4 Summary - Credit expansion in recent years has not returned to the pre - pandemic level, showing a structural and moderate recovery. Industries in credit expansion, such as light manufacturing, electronics, basic chemicals, and public utilities, are recommended for credit bond allocation, while industries in credit contraction, like real estate, food and beverage, beauty care, and household appliances, suggest focusing on enterprises with controllable risks [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by strong performance in Q3 2025, with major companies like China Life, New China Life, and China Property & Casualty reporting net profit growth rates of 106%, 101%, and 122% respectively [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the PEV (Price of Embedded Value) valuation system for insurance companies, which reflects long-term profitability potential more accurately than traditional PE or PB metrics [20][22] - The report highlights the low valuation levels of the insurance sector, with average PEV ratios for A/H shares at 0.72x and 0.51x, indicating a significant margin of safety and potential for value appreciation [34][37] - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index focuses heavily on the insurance sector, providing a unique investment opportunity with a high concentration of insurance assets [41][47] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Investment Value of Insurance Stocks - The report notes that listed insurance companies achieved high net profit growth in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations despite a high base from the previous year [11][12] - The increase in investment income from equity investments is identified as a key driver of this growth, with insurance funds significantly increasing their equity allocations [13][17] - The high proportion of FVTPL (Fair Value Through Profit or Loss) assets among insurance companies enhances profit elasticity, allowing for direct reflection of market gains in profit figures [17][19] 2. Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) Overview - The ETF is noted for its unique focus on insurance, with a significant portion of its holdings in major insurance companies, making it a rare investment vehicle in the market [41][47] - The ETF has shown strong liquidity and growth, with an average daily trading volume of 1.818 billion yuan and a fund size of 21.214 billion yuan as of October 24, 2025 [5][41] - The ETF's performance is highlighted, with a cumulative return of 66.68% and an annualized return of 36.83%, positioning it favorably compared to other financial sector ETFs [5][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Guorui Technology (600562) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 373 million yuan, up 1.15% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in operational fundamentals [8] - The gross profit margin stood at 40.08%, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin was 17.57%, slightly down but still reflecting strong profitability [8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with R&D expenses at 119 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2.72% year-on-year, while sales and management expenses decreased by 14.88% and 11.39% respectively [8] - The asset-liability ratio was 33.62%, showing a slight decrease year-on-year, indicating a healthy financial structure [8] - Cash flow from operating activities showed significant improvement, with a net outflow of 42 million yuan, a substantial improvement compared to the previous year [8] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 751.91 million, 854.60 million, and 969.76 million yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 48, 43, and 38 times [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.282 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.77% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 599.21 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.10% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.48 yuan per share for 2023, with a projected increase to 0.61 yuan in 2025 [1] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 11.197 billion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities at 4.528 billion yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 844 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 156 million yuan, up 42% year-on-year [8] - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 343 million yuan, a 35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, which is a 27% increase year-on-year [8] - The new projects, including Mangshan and Danxia Mountain, contributed to the profit growth despite some weather-related impacts on visitor numbers during the peak summer season [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 722.26 million yuan, with a projected growth of 55.81% year-on-year. For 2024A, the revenue is expected to be 864.12 million yuan, a 19.64% increase [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 151.30 million yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 571.66%. The forecast for 2024A is a slight decrease to 146.55 million yuan, a 3.14% decline [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is projected at 0.14 yuan, with an expected increase to 0.21 yuan in 2025E [8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 7.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of 7,550.57 million yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.91 for the current price and latest diluted earnings [5] Financial Ratios - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 was 52.47%, showing a slight increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 18.82%, down 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved steady revenue growth, with a 20.96% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 354 million yuan. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 25.40% year-on-year to 43 million yuan due to increased R&D investments and higher bad debt provisions [2] - The gross profit margin slightly improved to 30.90%, up 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 12.23%, down 7.79 percentage points, primarily due to increased R&D expenses and asset impairment losses [3] - The company has a good order backlog, with contract liabilities increasing to 314 million yuan by the end of Q3 2025, indicating strong order status. The net cash flow from operating activities significantly improved, increasing by 33.65% year-on-year to 98 million yuan, reflecting better cash collection management [4] Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 354 million yuan, a 20.96% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 43 million yuan, a decrease of 25.40% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 30.90%, with a slight increase compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin was 12.23%, reflecting a decrease due to higher R&D costs [3] R&D and Product Development - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, which rose by 46.62% year-on-year, leading to a higher R&D expense ratio of 11.32% [3] - The company is expanding into new product areas, including precision internal/external thread grinding machines and semiconductor precision grinding, indicating a strategic shift towards high-tech sectors [5] Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 446 million yuan in 2024 to 984 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.22% [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 99 million yuan in 2025 to 219 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 580 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.52%, and a net profit of 39.81 million yuan, up 290.58% compared to the previous year [1][7] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by concentrated deliveries of smart navigation and subsea data center orders, which have led to a substantial increase in operating profit [7] - The company has a lower asset-liability ratio of 21.83%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stronger financial position for future expansion [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 753.69 million, 383.94 million, 1,037.75 million, 1,188.89 million, and 1,365.33 million yuan respectively, with a notable year-on-year growth of 170.29% in 2025E [1][8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025E is 98.93 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 1,105.68% compared to the previous year [1][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.14 yuan in 2025E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 148.42 [1][8] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was -28 million yuan, primarily due to upfront equipment procurement costs for subsea data center projects [7] - The company expects to achieve positive operating cash flow by the end of the year as customer payments peak in Q4 [7] - The inventory has decreased by 17.35% year-on-year, indicating manageable inventory risk [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have stabilized and rebounded, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in overseas market demand and new business growth, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [8] - The company is facing challenges in overseas smart meter demand but is compensating with new business segments such as smart water meters and renewable energy [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for Q3 was 37.7%, down 11.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.3%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected to be 4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.91% [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is expected to reach 4.83 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.43% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.003 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.11% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.22 [1] Market and Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the transition to the new version of smart meters, which may lead to improved revenue and profitability in the domestic market [8] - The company’s overseas business is anticipated to achieve stable growth in 2026, with a potential return to double-digit growth [8] - The financial expenses for Q3 2025 contributed positively, with a net contribution of approximately 34 million yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has reached an inflection point in its performance, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 10.25 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, up 345% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [7] - The implementation of Document No. 136 is expected to benefit the commercial and industrial energy storage market, with the independent storage sector experiencing rapid growth [7] - The company is focusing on deep decarbonization and integrating various energy services, leveraging digital and intelligent technologies to create a new energy ecosystem [7] - The company has upgraded its digital management platform, covering the entire lifecycle of energy projects, and has successfully managed over 1,100 projects and 2,902 users [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit of 4.77 billion yuan, 5.57 billion yuan, and 6.75 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 40, 34, and 28, highlighting the potential in building energy efficiency, industrial energy storage, and virtual power plant businesses [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,988 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.46%, and expected to reach 3,576 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 13.36% [1][8] - The company's net profit is forecasted to recover from a loss of 58.13 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 476.93 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase of 920.50% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to improve from -0.02 yuan in 2024 to 0.13 yuan in 2025 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 873 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.20% [1] - The PCB industry is experiencing a recovery, with global market size expected to grow from 73.57 billion USD in 2024 to 94.66 billion USD by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 5.17% [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity to capture high-end market opportunities, with a new project aimed at increasing the annual production capacity of rigid circuit boards by 500,000 square meters, primarily for the electric vehicle sector [7] - The company is planning an H-share listing to enhance its international presence and meet financing needs for overseas business expansion [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 984.06 million yuan, with a projected growth of 1.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 118.05 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 124.75% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.89 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 38.95 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 1,801 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.13% [6][8]