证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250609 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，关注流动性宽 松对于短端利率下行的支撑 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 我们在延续上周观点的基础上，结合增量数据，思考如下： （1）Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 终值同步扩张，通胀压力增加，新增 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 徐沐阳 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523060003 证券分析师 陈伯铭 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《建议关注核心科技题材转债》 2025-06-08 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250602- 20250606）》 2025-06-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，重启买入国债讨论 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for value reassessment of photovoltaic (PV) assets, particularly through the integration of green electricity direct connection and physical asset tokenization [2]. - It highlights the government's push for green electricity direct connection, mandating that self-generated renewable energy should account for at least 60% of total available generation [5]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities across various segments of the utility sector, including thermal, hydro, nuclear, and green energy [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Consumption - In the first four months of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 3.16 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with notable growth in the primary industry at 10.0% [14][15]. 2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for the same period was 2.98 trillion kWh, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The generation from thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar sources varied, with solar power seeing a significant increase of 19.5% [25][26]. 3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in May 2025 was 394 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year but up 0.4% month-on-month [42]. 4. Thermal Power - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 609 RMB/ton as of June 6, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 30.2% [47]. - The cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.46 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [49]. 5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 153 meters, consistent with previous years, indicating stable hydrological conditions [55]. - The cumulative installed capacity of hydropower was 440 million kW, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [57]. 6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a steady growth trajectory for the nuclear sector [26]. 7. Green Energy - The report highlights the collaboration between GCL-Poly and Ant Group on a 200 million RMB photovoltaic RWA project, marking a significant step in the digital financing of green assets [5].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·环保 环保行业跟踪周报 环卫无人化招标呈加速迹象，固废板块提分 红+供热 IDC 拓展提 ROE 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈孜文 执业证书：S0600523070006 chenzw@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2024/6/11 2024/10/9 2025/2/6 2025/6/6 环保 沪深300 相关研究 《绿电直连政策打开垃圾焚烧发电 IDC 合作空间，固废板块提分红+供热 IDC 拓展提 ROE》 2025-06-03 《全国绿电直连政策发布，打开垃圾 焚烧发电 IDC 合作空间》 重点推荐：瀚蓝环境，绿色动力，永兴股份，光大环境，军信股份，粤海投资，美 埃科技，宇通重工，景津装备，新奥能源，昆仑能源，三峰环境，兴蓉环境，洪城 环境，中国水务，伟明环保，九丰能源，龙净环保 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·环保 环卫无人化招标呈加速迹象，固废板块提分 红+供热 IDC 拓展提 ROE 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈孜文 执业证书：S0600523070006 chenzw@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 环保行业跟踪周报 -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2024/6/11 2024/10/9 2025/2/6 2025/6/6 环保 沪深300 相关研究 《绿电直连政策打开垃圾焚烧发电 IDC 合作空间，固废板块提分红+供热 IDC 拓展提 ROE》 2025-06-03 《全国绿电直连政策发布，打开垃圾 焚烧发电 IDC 合作空间》 2025-06-02 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 重点推荐：瀚蓝环境，绿色动力，永兴股份，光大环境，军信股份，粤海投资，美 埃科技，宇通重工，景津装备，新奥 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 设施维护/高温天气带动欧洲/美国气价上涨， 国内气价平稳 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 袁理 《需求偏弱国内气价回落，储库推进 欧洲气价回落》 2025-06-03 《库存大幅增长美国气价回落，需求 偏弱国内气价回落，库存偏低欧洲气 价微增》 2025-05-26 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024/6/11 2024/10/9 2025/2/6 2025/6/6 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 | 1. 价格跟踪：设施维护/高温天气带动欧洲/美国气价上涨，国内气价平稳 4 | | --- | | 2. 顺价进展：全国顺价逐步推进，城燃 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the utility sector, focusing on green electricity direct connection and photovoltaic asset value reassessment [1][2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for value reassessment of photovoltaic assets, particularly through innovative financing models like RWA (Real World Asset) [2][5] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are promoting green electricity direct connection, aiming for a self-consumption rate of at least 60% for new energy projects [5] - The report highlights various investment opportunities across different segments of the utility sector, including thermal, hydro, nuclear, and green energy [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index decreased by 0.13% during the week of June 2-6, 2025, with notable performances in gas and photovoltaic sectors [10] - Top gainers included ST Jinhong (+17.3%) and Zhongtai Shares (+15.0%), while top losers included Guangdong Electric A (-8.8%) and Jiangsu New Energy (-6.5%) [10][13] 2. Power Sector Tracking 2.1 Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption from January to April 2025 reached 3.16 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [14] - Growth rates improved across all sectors, with the primary industry seeing a 10.0% increase [14] 2.2 Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for the same period was 2.98 trillion kWh, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [25] - Notable growth in nuclear (+12.7%) and photovoltaic (+19.5%) generation, while thermal generation decreased by 4.1% [25] 2.3 Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in May 2025 was 394 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year but up 0.4% month-on-month [42] 2.4 Thermal Power - As of June 6, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 609 RMB/ton, a significant year-on-year decrease of 30.2% [47] - The cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.46 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [49] 2.5 Hydropower - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was normal at 153 meters, with inflow and outflow rates showing mixed trends [55] - Cumulative installed capacity for hydropower reached 440 million kW, with a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [57] 2.6 Nuclear Power - The approval of 11 new nuclear units in 2024 indicates a robust growth trajectory for the sector [2] 2.7 Green Energy - The report highlights the potential for green energy growth, with significant increases in installed capacity for wind (+18.5%) and photovoltaic (+74.6%) from January to April 2025 [2][5]

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The historical review of global trade indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade confrontations, potentially replacing tariffs [1][7] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises anticipate that the US-China trade negotiations will be fraught with challenges, necessitating ongoing risk management regarding exports to the US [1][7] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive objectives, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to past trade conflicts with Japan and Germany [1][7] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - The short-term outlook suggests that the RMB central parity may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of dual-directional fluctuations in the USD/CNY exchange rate [2][9] - The market is forming a consistent appreciation expectation for the RMB, driven by a weakening US dollar index and increasing demand for RMB-denominated financial assets [9][10] - Risks of "panic settlement" may arise if export enterprises respond to a strengthening RMB and a declining dollar index, potentially leading to concentrated demand for currency exchange [9][10] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Insights - The current market for urban investment ABS is characterized by a predominance of enterprise ABS products, with a weighted average coupon rate of approximately 3.25%, which is lower than the overall market for urban investment bonds [15][16] - The urban investment ABS market shows a significant mid-to-long-term characteristic, aligning with the cash flow characteristics of underlying assets such as infrastructure projects [15][16] - The distribution of urban investment ABS by underlying asset type indicates that fee income rights and debt rights ABS dominate the market, with a focus on stable cash flows from public utility fees [15][16] Group 4: Trade Policy and Economic Indicators - The recent US trade data shows a significant decline in imports, indicating a potential slowdown in the "import rush" effect driven by tariff policies [13][14] - The US consumer confidence index has improved, suggesting a resilient economic outlook, while inflation indicators remain stable, reflecting cautious monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [13][14] - The ongoing legal challenges to Trump's tariff policies highlight the uncertainty in global trade dynamics, with potential implications for future trade negotiations and tariff implementations [13][14]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 中国创新药在 ASCO 表现超预期，关注信达 生物、科伦博泰等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 环码生物 RNA 创新药获 FDA IND 默示许可；PROTAC 雌激素受体降 解剂向 FDA 递交 NDA；国产九价 HPV 疫苗获批上市，填补高端疫苗 空白 6 月 6 日，环码生物宣布，其自研的环形 RNA 新药 HM2002 获 FDA 新药临床试验申请（IND）默示许可。该药为全球首款完成患者给 药的环形 RNA 类药物，曾于 1 月获中国 NMPA IND 批准。6 月 7 日， Arvinas 与辉瑞联合宣布，已向 FDA 递交 Vepdegestrant 的新药申请 （NDA），该药为全球首个口服 PROTAC 雌激素受体降解剂，适用于 ER+/HER2-乳腺癌患者。6 月 4 日，由翔安实验室与厦门大学等联合研 制的国产九价 HPV 疫苗获国家药监局批准上市，成为我国首个自主供 应的九价 HPV 疫苗，标志中国正式成为继美国后第二个具备高价 HPV 疫苗自主可控能力的国家。 ◼ 具体配 ...

2025 年 06 月 08 日 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 海外算力催化利好 AIDC，欧洲电动车再超 预期 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 2025-06-02 《关税缓和需求小幅向上，固态新技 术如火如荼》 2025-06-02 东吴证券研究所 1 / 43 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 许钧赫 执业证书：S0600123070121 xujunhe@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024-6-11 2024-10-9 2025-2-6 2025-6-6 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《马斯克回归 Optimus 量产在即，汽 车反"内卷式"竞争》 ◼ 电气设备 6714 上涨 1.38%，表现强于大盘。本周 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·摩托车及其他 隆鑫通用（603766） 无极品牌加速成长，聚焦主业再度出发 2025 年 06 月 08 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13,066 | 16,822 | 20,877 | 24,021 | 26,423 | | 同比（%） | 5.29 | 28.74 | 24.11 | 15.06 | 10.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 583.42 | 1,121.27 | 1,871.23 | 2,287.56 | 2,567.59 | | 同比（%） | 10.65 | 92.19 | 66.88 | 22.25 | 12.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.28 | 0.55 | 0.91 | 1.11 | 1.25 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 50.05 | 26.04 | 15.61 | 12.77 | 11.37 ...