Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative increase of 1.62% from December 1, 2025, to January 2, 2026, with a total trading volume of approximately 1,129 billion CNY[10] - The index showed a pattern of "oscillating downward, bottoming mid-month, and accelerating rebound at the beginning of 2026" during this period[10] Valuation Analysis - As of January 2, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.80, positioned at the 36.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating a relatively low historical valuation[13] Technical Analysis - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was -0.41 as of January 2, 2026, indicating a low-risk environment and a favorable risk-reward ratio[18] - The index's current price is near the main peak of the chip distribution, suggesting manageable selling pressure if it rebounds to that level[18] Macro Factors - Domestic PMI improved in November, and CPI/core CPI showed signs of recovery, providing support for the tech sector's valuation[23] - U.S. employment data showed weakness, contributing to fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which impacted the risk appetite for Hong Kong tech stocks[23] Policy Support - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stable growth and support for 2026, alleviating concerns about liquidity tightening[27] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled potential interest rate cuts, although future paths remain uncertain, affecting U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which are crucial for Hong Kong tech valuations[27] Industry Dynamics - The end-of-year promotions in e-commerce extended the sales cycle, enhancing transaction expectations on the platform side[36] - The AI and semiconductor sectors saw increased attention and funding at the beginning of January, boosting short-term elasticity in the tech sector[36] Key Event Outlook - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll, CPI/PCE, and GDP data could raise interest rate cut expectations, benefiting Hong Kong tech valuations; conversely, strong data may constrain liquidity and valuation elasticity[42] Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to trend upward in January 2026, driven by seasonal trading and potential foreign capital inflow, with volatility likely to increase during event windows[42] Related ETF Products - The Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a total market value of 48.95 billion CNY and a trading volume of 2.907 billion CNY on January 2, 2026[10]

Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 Index experienced a monthly decline of 0.73% in December 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately $51.445 billion[9] - The P/E ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index as of December 31, 2025, was 35.93, placing it at the 88.6% historical percentile since 2011, indicating relatively high valuation levels[14] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 Index increased to 65.29 by December 31, 2025, up from 56.28 at the end of November, suggesting a rise in market risk perception[17] Macro and Policy Analysis - Economic data in December indicated a slowdown, with manufacturing PMI at 48.2 and unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve[19] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, provided liquidity support, but internal disagreements on future rate paths limited market optimism[28] - Political pressures, including comments from former President Trump advocating for significant rate cuts, influenced market expectations and pricing logic[31] Industry Dynamics - Concerns over capital expenditure sustainability in the AI sector emerged, with Oracle's disappointing earnings report triggering market anxiety about AI transformation capabilities[36] - The adjustment of Nasdaq 100 Index components to include storage companies like Seagate and Western Digital reflected a structural shift towards AI storage demand, indicating a new investment focus[40] - Micron Technology's earnings exceeded expectations, confirming strong demand for storage solutions and helping to stabilize market sentiment[42] Outlook for January 2026 - Key macroeconomic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be critical in shaping market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations in January 2026[51] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28, 2026, is expected to provide clarity on the monetary policy path for the first half of the year, influencing market volatility[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term value enhancement of special fuels and gases in commercial aerospace, recommending Jiufeng Energy as a key investment opportunity. The company has made significant progress in supplying special fuels and gases for the Hainan commercial aerospace launch site, with production starting in 2025 and multiple successful launches already supported [4] - The first batch of national-level zero-carbon park construction lists has been published, involving 52 parks, with guidelines for energy supply optimization and infrastructure planning to meet zero-carbon goals [4] Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Price**: The average national grid purchase price in November 2025 decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 2.8% month-on-month [4][38] - **Coal Price**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 678 RMB/ton, down 11.37% year-on-year and 0.44% week-on-week [4][46] - **Water Conditions**: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 170.59 meters as of December 31, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing a year-on-year decrease of 27% and 5.3%, respectively [4][53] - **Electricity Consumption**: Total electricity consumption from January to November 2025 was 9.46 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [4][13] - **Power Generation**: Cumulative power generation from January to November 2025 was 8.86 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][23] - **Installed Capacity**: As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.52 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [4][48] Investment Recommendations - **Green Power**: Focus on companies like Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Sanxia Energy, with a strong recommendation for Longjing Environmental Protection [4] - **Thermal Power**: Explore the reliability and flexibility value of thermal power, with attention to Huaneng International and Huadian International [4] - **Hydropower**: Recommend Changjiang Power due to low costs and strong cash flow [4] - **Nuclear Power**: Highlight China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power as key growth opportunities [4] - **Solar Assets and Charging Stations**: Suggest companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group for potential value reassessment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry PMI has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, indicating a potential turning point for the real estate chain in 2026. The stability of infrastructure investment is deemed necessary amidst declining real estate investment expectations [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side adjustments in the cement industry, with a focus on the exit of outdated capacities and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 [8][19]. - The glass market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a notable decline in average prices compared to the previous year, suggesting ongoing challenges in demand and supply dynamics [46][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.8 RMB/ton, down 1.2 RMB/ton from last week and down 53.8 RMB/ton from the same period in 2024. Regions with price increases include Guangdong (+5.0 RMB/ton) and Central South (+1.7 RMB/ton), while declines were noted in the Yangtze River Basin (-2.1 RMB/ton) and Southwest (-9.0 RMB/ton) [14][15]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 60.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from last week but up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average cement shipment rate is 40.3%, down 1.1 percentage points from last week and down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [19][21]. 2. Glass Market Overview - The average price for float glass is 1121.3 RMB/ton, a decrease of 18.8 RMB/ton from last week and down 270.4 RMB/ton from the same period in 2024. The inventory of float glass in 13 provinces is 53.78 million heavy boxes, down 155,000 boxes from last week but up 1.361 million boxes year-on-year [46][51]. - The report indicates that the supply of float glass is under pressure, with production lines being shut down due to losses, which may lead to price rebounds in the future as demand stabilizes [45][46]. 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The fiberglass market is expected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and thermoplastic applications, with effective capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [8]. - The report suggests that the profitability of leading companies in the fiberglass sector may improve due to structural demand and new applications, enhancing their competitive advantages [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the affordable beverage market, with a focus on high-quality products priced around 6 RMB (approximately 1 USD) [15] - The company has established a robust supply chain and a unique market position through its "high-quality and affordable" brand strategy, which has resonated well with consumers [15] - The report forecasts significant growth in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 58.5 billion, 65.2 billion, and 73.0 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 12%, and 12% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates over 46,000 stores globally, making it the largest beverage chain in terms of store count, with a product output ranking first in China and second globally [15] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 81.14% of shares, which enhances management stability and strategic alignment [24] 2. Business Model - Revenue primarily comes from the sale of goods and equipment to franchisees, with 94% of revenue derived from product sales [33] - The company has a vertically integrated supply chain, allowing for cost advantages and efficient operations, which contribute to a stable gross margin above 30% [34] 3. Market Position and Growth Potential - The affordable beverage segment is expected to continue growing rapidly, driven by increasing consumer demand and market penetration in lower-tier cities [15] - The company aims to expand its store count to approximately 70,000 in China and 10,000 to 15,000 in Southeast Asia, with potential growth in the Americas as well [15] 4. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, projecting total revenue to reach 39.635 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.33% from 2023 to 2027 [1] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 15.40 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.81 [1]

其一，港股开年"独秀"，我们更偏向于理解为资金配置原因，更多的 是新年建仓、空头回补等因素。未来我们预计南向资金会继续增配港股， 边际增量主要来自保险和固收+。外资是否大幅回流还是看基本面叙事 是否有变化。 其二，短期仍然需控制港股仓位，春节前后行情或更好。我们主要担心 一月美股科技有回调风险，间接影响港股。市场对一月中下旬美股科技 财报仍持谨慎观察态度，投资者会对企业 Capex 和 ROI 会更为严格。 如不及预期，美股科技可能会有回调，港股科技反弹会受阻。 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260105 港股开年"独秀"全球？——港股&海外周观 察 港股开年"独秀"全球，从中长期配置来看，当前位置有吸引力。 其三，港股从现在进入震荡上行期，仍需将红利作为底仓，把握上半年 的科技成长行情。南向潜在增量资金保险和固收+会继续增配价值红利。 考虑估值，AH 对比视角，南向资金整体会增配港股科技成长股票，但 港股科技行情仍会受海外降息节奏和美股科技行情影响，需动态观察。 ◼ 美股：本周纳指领跌 1.5%，道指下跌 1.3%，标普下跌 1.0%。行业上， 能源、公用事业领涨，信息技术、金融领跌。美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drivers of improved cash flow in the waste incineration sector due to decreased capital expenditure and accelerated national subsidies [9][10] - The State Council's issuance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" is expected to benefit resource recycling and solid waste management industries [15][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for dividend increases in the waste incineration sector, projecting a rise in dividend potential from 114% to 141% due to improved cash flow and subsidy recovery [13][12] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a significant increase in cash flow and dividend potential due to reduced capital expenditures and improved national subsidy recovery [9][10] - The waste incineration sector is projected to see a substantial improvement in cash flow, with a notable increase in national subsidy recovery rates [10][11] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huanlan Environment, Longjing Environmental Protection, and Green Power for their dividend potential and growth prospects [3][13] - It also suggests monitoring companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment for their overseas growth strategies [3][13] Policy Tracking - The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" sets clear targets for solid waste utilization by 2030, which is expected to drive growth in the resource recycling sector [15][16] - The report notes that the plan includes measures to improve the commercial model for waste management, which will benefit the industry [16][17] Company Highlights - Longjing Environmental Protection has successfully connected its second phase of the solar storage project in Guyana and delivered its first electric mining truck, marking a significant step in green mining [21][24] - Jingjin Equipment, a leader in filter press manufacturing, is expected to benefit from the recovery in the lithium battery sector and overseas expansion [27][28] Market Performance - The report indicates that the environmental protection sector is poised for growth, driven by increased demand for waste management and recycling solutions [30][31] - The report also highlights the expected recovery in cash flow for water service companies, which could mirror the trends seen in the waste incineration sector [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the expected low temperatures have led to an increase in US gas prices and a rise in European gas prices due to inventory withdrawals [1][9] - It emphasizes the long-term value enhancement of special gas in commercial aerospace [1] Price Tracking - As of January 2, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +20.2%, European TTF +4.2%, East Asia JKM -0.2%, China LNG ex-factory -1.4%, and China LNG CIF +2.3%, with prices at 1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, and 2.5 yuan per cubic meter respectively [9][14] Supply and Demand Analysis - Meteorological agencies predict that national temperatures will remain low until January 12, leading to a week-on-week increase of 20.2% in US natural gas market prices. As of December 26, 2025, the storage volume decreased by 38 billion cubic feet to 33,750 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [16] - European gas consumption from January to September 2025 was 313.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [18] - Domestic gas prices decreased by 1.4% week-on-week, with apparent consumption in China from January to November 2025 increasing by 1.5% year-on-year to 392 billion cubic meters [24][29] Pricing Progress - From 2022 to 2025, 67% (195 cities) of cities at or above the prefecture level implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, recommending companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [56] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, recommending Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Shares [56] - The report notes the increasing uncertainty regarding US gas imports and emphasizes the importance of energy self-sufficiency, suggesting attention to companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to boost the industry's outlook, particularly for passenger vehicles, heavy trucks, and buses, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [2][26]. - The heavy truck segment is anticipated to see a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [30]. - The bus segment is projected to maintain growth, with an estimated sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year [30]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [27]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The short-term outlook is positive due to the new subsidy policies, with expectations for a recovery in demand in Q1 2026. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD [2][26]. - The 2026 subsidy budget is projected at 125 billion yuan, which could drive an additional sales increase of 780,000 to 1.54 million units [15]. Heavy Trucks - The 2026 trade-in policy for heavy trucks has exceeded expectations, with subsidies remaining at previous levels. The anticipated sales volume for 2026 is optimistic, with a target of 800,000 to 850,000 units [30][19]. - Recommended companies in this segment include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30]. Buses - The bus segment's policy has also exceeded expectations, with a projected sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [30][18]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to see a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow significantly [27]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [27].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20260105 脑机接口推进临床，具身智能向个人化发展 2026 年 01 月 05 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 本周 AI 要闻 （信息来源：新浪财经、上海证券报等） 周度观点 ◼ AI 产业链条延续变化趋势，脑机接口与小型机器人等产品落地 （1）本周全球 AI 产业延续全链条推进态势，整体来看，行业正通过资本 协同、技术创新与场景落地的深度联动，推动 AI 价值从技术探索向实际 应用加速转化。 相关研究 《节后 A 股行情推演》 （2）算力与基础设施方面，本周企业继续通过资本整合补强 AI 产业全栈 能力。英伟达通过 50 亿美元注资英特尔以及拟用 20-30 亿美元收购大模 型公司 AI21Labs 的核心推理技术与顶尖人才分别补强其生产线与专利库 和软件板块，推进"硬件+软件+应用"全栈布局，此类收购可能抬升全球 AI 人才估值锚点，迫使竞争对手提高留人成本。软银则以 40 亿美元收购 DigitalBridge 并累计 410 亿美元投资 OpenAI，不仅巩固了 AI 行业巨头 OpenAI 在全球 AI 竞赛中的优势、 ...