Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a general price increase due to improved macroeconomic sentiment following better-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which has cleared the way for potential interest rate cuts [1][2][3]. - Industrial metals recorded broad gains, while precious metals faced a significant pullback despite a favorable medium-term outlook [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From October 20 to October 24, the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.13%, ranking in the middle among all primary industries. The energy metals sector increased by 4.32%, industrial metals by 2.98%, and precious metals fell by 10.74% [1][15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of October 24, LME copper closed at $10,947 per ton, up 3.21% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also rose, supported by tight supply and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles [2][30]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $2,857 per ton, a 2.81% increase. Supply disruptions in overseas production and improved macro sentiment contributed to this rise [3][35]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices increased to $3,020 per ton, up 2.62%. Zinc inventories also decreased, indicating a tightening supply [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin prices rose to $35,650 per ton, supported by ongoing supply constraints and a favorable market sentiment [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of October 24, COMEX gold closed at $4,126.90 per ounce, down 3.30%. Despite the short-term pullback, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to declining real interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][48][49]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver prices also saw a decline, reflecting similar trends in the precious metals market [50]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that while traditional demand for industrial metals is weaker than last year, sectors like new energy vehicles and grid investments are providing support [2][30]. - Supply-side constraints are evident across various metals, with significant reductions in inventories for copper, aluminum, and zinc, indicating a tightening market [28][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qingmu Technology [3] Core Views - Qingmu Technology is expanding its e-commerce service offerings, maintaining a leading position in the large apparel brand operation while deepening collaborations with quality brands. The company is also exploring the trendy toy industry to uncover new profit sources in operational categories. The brand incubation business is positioned in the health and pet food sectors, which are expected to grow significantly. The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1.2 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.6 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 31%, 57%, and 40%. The corresponding latest closing price P/E ratios are 56, 36, and 26 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Qingmu Technology achieved revenue of 1.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 79.62 million, up 10.2%. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 350 million, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, with net profit soaring to 27.96 million, a remarkable increase of 439.7% [10] - The sales net profit margin improved significantly, with the gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 at 56.3%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year. The Q3 gross margin was 55.0%, also up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio for the first three quarters was 48.3%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 operating expense ratio was 49.4%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The brand incubation and management business continues to grow rapidly, driven by partnerships with European health brands. A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Dermofarm to explore the Chinese health market, leveraging previous successes in brand growth [10] - The e-commerce operation business is synergistically enhancing its services, including traditional e-commerce operations and live streaming services across major platforms. The company is also advancing AI technology to improve digital service levels [10]

Macro Strategy - The "Innovation Bull" market is entering a consolidation phase, driven by a positive cycle of capital pricing and industrial implementation under policy guidance [1][13] - Current macro policies are still being implemented, and the "KOT" valuation system is gradually improving, with medium to long-term funds expected to enter the market annually [1][13] - Market liquidity and valuations have improved, with public fund net values exceeding 1, indicating potential for accelerated fund issuance [1][13] - The market is likely to extend towards technology sectors such as computing power, chips, robotics, and energy storage as the "Innovation Bull" evolves into a comprehensive bull market [1][13] Fixed Income - The report discusses how to identify arbitrage opportunities in the Sci-Tech Bond ETF component bonds, focusing on bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or higher and smaller issuance sizes [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity and credit quality in selecting bonds for inclusion in the ETF, with a preference for bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises [2][14] - The report highlights the potential for price appreciation of bonds that are included in the ETF due to passive fund inflows [2][15] Industry Analysis - The report identifies the "brain" as a key component in the development of embodied intelligence, with various companies exploring different technological paths [4][16] - The embodied intelligence market is expected to grow rapidly, with significant investment in brain technology, which is seen as the most critical and challenging aspect of the market [4][16] - Key players in the market include companies like 品茗科技, 银河通用, and Tesla, among others, with a recommendation to focus on these related stocks [4][16] Company Recommendations - 派能科技 (688063) is projected to recover from impairment and exchange rate impacts, with expected net profits of 1.0/5.0/7.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [5][17] - 巨子生物 (02367.HK) has received approval for its first type I recombinant collagen product, which is expected to drive growth in the medical beauty sector, with projected net profits of 25.66/32.14/40.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6][18] - 联合动力 (301656) reported a slight decline in net profit but maintains a positive long-term outlook, with expected net profits of 11.3/16.8/25.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [7][21] - 杰瑞股份 (002353) continues to show growth potential with projected net profits of 30/35/40 billion yuan for 2025-2027, despite short-term delivery challenges [8][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 3.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 287 million yuan, an increase of 7.54% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 304 million yuan, up 16.66% year-on-year [7] - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Hangyi Technology, marks further progress in the IDC liquid cooling sector, focusing on non-automotive liquid cooling pump R&D, production, and sales [7] - The company has received a project designation for a thermal management integrated module from SAIC Motor, with expected sales revenue exceeding 400 million yuan over the project lifecycle [7] - The company is increasing its investment in its Thailand factory, which began production in June 2025, aiming to expand its global business scale [7] Financial Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023A is 4.095 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.69%. The forecast for 2024A is 4.723 billion yuan, with a growth of 15.34%, and for 2025E is 5.025 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.39% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 261.77 million yuan for 2023A, with a significant year-on-year increase of 211.14%. The forecast for 2024A is 329.62 million yuan, with a growth of 25.92%, and for 2025E is 430.42 million yuan, with a growth of 30.58% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.46 yuan for 2023A, increasing to 0.57 yuan for 2024A and 0.75 yuan for 2025E [1] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 30, 21, and 17 respectively, reflecting a favorable valuation outlook [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.92 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.48%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.63% year-on-year to 450 million yuan [7] - The company has a strong order backlog, with significant projects in the pipeline, including a convertible bond issuance aimed at raising up to 450 million yuan for a new magnesium alloy project [7] - The company is positioned as a leader in semi-solid technology and is expected to benefit from the growing trend of magnesium alloy applications [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 352.22 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 80.08 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.42% [1] - The company's gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 30.63%, down 3.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 15.42%, down 4.05 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company anticipates a significant increase in production capacity and profitability starting in 2026, following the ramp-up of new projects [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 458.39 million yuan, 938.87 million yuan, and 1,296.86 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 12.19%, 104.82%, and 38.13% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 77.69 million yuan in 2025, with a slight decline of 3.28% year-on-year, followed by significant growth in subsequent years [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 48.97 yuan, with a market capitalization of 5,484.64 million yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 68.49 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 23.88 by 2027 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a 67% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, driven by the expansion of NAS new products and significant growth in overseas markets [7] - The company's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 6.36 billion yuan, a 48% increase year-on-year, with Q3 revenue alone at 2.51 billion yuan, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [7] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 37.2% and 7.7%, respectively, showing improvements due to high growth in overseas business [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 4.803 billion yuan - 2024A: 6.170 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.183 billion yuan - 2026E: 12.494 billion yuan - 2027E: 16.379 billion yuan - Net profit projections are: - 2023A: 387.52 million yuan - 2024A: 462.28 million yuan - 2025E: 688.32 million yuan - 2026E: 957.84 million yuan - 2027E: 1,273.62 million yuan [1][8] - The report indicates an upward revision of net profit expectations for 2025-2027, now projected at 6.9 billion, 9.6 billion, and 12.7 billion yuan, respectively [7] Market and Product Insights - The company has become the leading online market player in the NAS segment in China, with a 125% year-on-year revenue growth in storage products for H1 2025 [7] - The introduction of new products, including upgraded charging devices and AI headphones, has contributed to revenue acceleration [7] - The company has successfully expanded its distribution channels, entering major retail markets in the US and Europe [7]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 绿联科技 2025Q3 业绩增速加速，关注 NAS 新消费趋势 2025 年 10 月 26 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [周观点（注：文中"本周"指的 Table_Summary] 10 月 19 日至 10 月 26 日） 本周行情回顾 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 2024/10/28 2025/2/25 2 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Weekly Report: US Sanctions Two Russian Oil Companies, International Oil Prices Rise [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian, Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, Brent/WTI crude oil futures had weekly average prices of $63.4/$59.3 per barrel, up $1.4/$1.0 per barrel from last week. Various data on US crude oil and refined oil, including inventory, production, demand, and import/export, showed different changes [2]. - Recommended related listed companies include CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, etc.; companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service, CNPC Engineering, etc. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Performance**: The stock prices of companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec showed different percentage changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year, and year - to - date periods. Their valuations, including total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB, also varied [9]. - **Crude Oil Price**: Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oil had different weekly average prices and percentage changes. The LME copper spot price and the US dollar index also had corresponding fluctuations [9]. - **Inventory**: US crude oil total inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory had different inventory levels and changes [9]. - **Production**: US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets had corresponding changes [9]. - **Refinery**: US refinery crude oil processing volume and operating rate, as well as the operating rates of Chinese local and major refineries, showed different changes [9]. - **Import/Export**: US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes had corresponding changes [9]. 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: The report presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, but specific data is not detailed here [12]. - **Sector Listed Company Performance** - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The weekly average prices and spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in China, the US, Europe, and Singapore showed different changes [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore had different inventory levels and changes [22]. - **Production**: The production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US had corresponding changes [22]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US had corresponding changes [22]. - **Import/Export**: The import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US had corresponding changes [22]. - **Oil Service Sector**: The daily rates of offshore jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms had different changes [22]. 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzes the prices and spreads of various crude oils, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [28][35]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Discusses the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, as well as the inventory levels and changes of US total crude oil, commercial crude oil, strategic crude oil, and Cushing crude oil [41][54]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices [57][61]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, operating rate, and the operating rates of Shandong and Chinese major refineries [65][69]. - **Crude Oil Import/Export**: Analyzes US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes [75]. 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Refined Oil Price**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel retail prices, as well as the prices and spreads of crude oil and refined oil in different regions [80][107]. - **Refined Oil Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory levels and changes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore [121][133]. - **Refined Oil Supply**: Analyzes the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [140]. - **Refined Oil Demand**: Analyzes the consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and the number of US airport passenger security checks [143]. - **Refined Oil Import/Export**: Analyzes the import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [150][153]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the oil service sector [165][169].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.90% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2025 was 2.21 billion yuan, reflecting an 83.27% year-on-year growth [7] - The company is establishing a joint venture with Changban Technology to enhance business collaboration [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 1,352 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.18% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is estimated at 103.53 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 57.85% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is expected to be 0.16 yuan [1] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to 2,434 million yuan in 2025E, representing a 47.75% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 301.29 million yuan in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth of 62.61% [1] - EPS is projected to be 0.47 yuan in 2025E [1] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 34.34 for 2025E [1] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 10,345.80 million yuan [5] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 4.05 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current probability of further interest rate cuts is low, and even if a cut occurs, its downward push on interest rates will be limited. It is recommended to approach the bond market with a volatile mindset and be cautious about chasing up [1][16][17] - After the release of inflation data lower than market expectations, the market generally believes that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates next week. However, inflation risks are rising, and the market has overlooked the possibility of an inflation rebound [4][19][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints Q1: Impact of "double - cut" expectations on the bond market - This week (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.24), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 3.5bp from 1.745% last Friday to 1.78% [1][12] - Throughout the week, the bond market traded around trade - war news and expectations of further monetary policy easing. The trade - war was highly affected by external factors, while the expectation of monetary policy easing was triggered by news of small and medium - sized banks lowering deposit rates and weak economic data [16] Q2: Future changes in US Treasury yields after the release of a series of US economic data - This week (10.20 - 10.24), the short - and long - term US Treasury yields slightly recovered from the previous downward trend. US stocks rose, and the gold price dropped significantly. The overseas market's risk - aversion sentiment declined marginally [2][19] - In September, the US CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, falling short of market expectations across the board. The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, exceeding expectations. The September CPI data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market expects two more cuts this year [4][19][22] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/10/20 to 2025/10/24, the total net injection in the open - market operations was 781 billion yuan [30] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total transaction area of commercial housing generally increased. Steel prices showed mixed trends, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices all rose [56][58] - Compared with half a month ago, both short - and long - term US Treasury yields declined. The term spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds decreased, while that between the 10 - year and 3 - month US Treasury bonds increased [75][76][79] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 79 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 247.228 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 80.51 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 165.751 billion yuan. The main investment directions were comprehensive, urban and rural infrastructure construction, and shantytown renovation [86] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local government bonds was 53.64 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 33.994 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.63%. The top three provinces with the most actively traded local government bonds were Guizhou, Guangdong, and Shandong [102] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - No detailed content provided other than the plan exists 4. One - Week Review of Credit Bonds 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 527 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 468.291 billion yuan, a total repayment of 335.832 billion yuan, and a net financing of 132.459 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.204 billion yuan compared with last week [107] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds decreased by 0.73bp, medium - term notes increased by 3.91bp, enterprise bonds increased by 47.45bp, and corporate bonds decreased by 7.76bp [119] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 360.658 billion yuan [120] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all decreased [123][124][126] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes narrowed comprehensively, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds narrowed comprehensively [128][132][134] 4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and those of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [136][139][144] 4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 226.81 billion yuan [149][150] 4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [151]