Investment Rating - The investment rating for JinkoSolar is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company maintains its leading position in module shipments, with a continuous upgrade of TOPCon technology [1] - Despite short-term price pressures, the company is expected to recover profitability as module prices stabilize and improve due to industry trends [8] - The company has achieved significant advancements in N-type technology, with battery efficiency reaching 27.02% in H1 2025, and plans to upgrade a substantial portion of its existing capacity [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 118.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 43.55% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 7.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 153.20% [1] - In 2025, total revenue is forecasted to decline to 68.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.95% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -4.23 billion yuan in 2025, a significant decline compared to previous years [1] Shipment and Production Insights - In H1 2025, the company shipped 41.84 GW of modules, maintaining its position as the industry leader [8] - The company anticipates module shipments of approximately 20-23 GW in Q3 2025, with a total expected shipment of 90-100 GW for the year [8] - Energy storage shipments have also exceeded expectations, with H1 2025 shipments reaching 1.5 GWh, surpassing the entire 2024 target [8] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company has successfully reduced operating expenses, with a 5.1% year-on-year decrease in H1 2025 [8] - Capital expenditures in H1 2025 were significantly reduced by 72.3% compared to the previous year [8] - The company is focusing on stringent cost control and reducing capital expenditures to improve cash flow [8]

- The style rotation model is constructed based on micro-level stock factors, including valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum. It utilizes 80 base factors to generate 640 micro features, replacing absolute proportion division of style factors with common indices as style stock pools. Random forest is employed for rolling training to avoid overfitting, enabling feature selection and style recommendation. The framework integrates style timing, scoring, and investment implementation[3][8][9] - The performance of the style rotation model during the backtesting period (2017/01/01-2025/08/31) shows an annualized return of 17.08%, annualized volatility of 20.07%, IR of 0.85, monthly win rate of 55.77%, and maximum drawdown of -29.89%. When hedging against the market benchmark, the annualized return is 10.42%, annualized volatility is 13.03%, IR is 0.80, monthly win rate is 56.73%, and maximum drawdown is -9.57%[9][10] - The style rotation model's September 2025 timing direction focuses on growth, large-cap, momentum, and high-volatility factors[17] - The latest holdings of the style rotation model for September 2025 include ETFs such as Semiconductor Leaders ETF (159665.SZ), Big Data ETF (159739.SZ), Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819.SZ), Fintech ETF (159851.SZ), and 5G ETF (159994.SZ)[2][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huadian International [1] Core Views - The company's 2025 half-year report meets expectations, with a focus on the impact of increased capacity pricing to offset the decline in power generation [7] - The coal power segment achieved a total profit of 2.748 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [7] - The overall revenue for the first half of 2025 was 59.953 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.904 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 117.176 billion, 112.994 billion, 111.247 billion, 113.262 billion, and 136.224 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.45%, -3.57%, -1.55%, 1.81%, and 20.27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is projected to be 4.522 billion, 5.703 billion, 6.452 billion, 6.813 billion, and 7.740 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 3789.00%, 26.11%, 13.14%, 5.60%, and 13.60% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 0.56 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 9.54 [1] Operational Metrics - The total power generation in the first half of 2025 was 1206.21 billion kWh, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, with coal power generation at 979.77 billion kWh, down 9.0% [7] - The average on-grid electricity price was 516.80 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with coal power at 466.29 yuan/MWh, down 3.8% [7] - The coal consumption per unit of power generated was 280.04 grams/kWh, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, while the standard coal price was 850.74 yuan/ton, down 13.0% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 13.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 3.301 billion yuan, and a 32.9% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 832 million yuan, which aligns with market expectations [7] - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to several factors: improved water supply for peak-shaving hydropower, increased income from the first phase of Meizhou pumped storage entering the spot market, and the commissioning of the Yunnan Qiubei energy storage station [7] - The company has a total installed capacity of 12.9642 million kilowatts as of the first half of 2025, including 10.28 million kilowatts of pumped storage and 654,200 kilowatts of new energy storage [7] - The entry of Meizhou into the spot market is expected to enhance the profitability of pumped storage plants, as the new policy broadens the development space for energy storage [7] - The company maintains profit forecasts of 1.235 billion yuan, 1.394 billion yuan, and 1.517 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27x, 24x, and 22x [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 5.63 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 6.67 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting an 8.08% year-on-year growth [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 1.014 billion yuan in 2023A to 1.235 billion yuan in 2025E, representing a 9.61% increase [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to rise from 0.32 yuan in 2023A to 0.39 yuan in 2025E [1][8] - The company's total assets are forecasted to increase from 50.467 billion yuan in 2024A to 57.814 billion yuan in 2025E [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in net profit in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, marking a 38.90% increase quarter-on-quarter and an 18.98% increase year-on-year [7] - The company is diversifying its business, with significant growth in electronic products and new client acquisitions [7] - The company is in a critical phase of performance release, with multiple high-investment projects beginning to contribute to revenue [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.678 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.30% [1] - The company expects to achieve a total revenue of 7.149 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.02% [1] - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 22.84 million yuan, a significant recovery from previous losses [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.19 yuan in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 617.51 [1] - The company’s R&D expenses have decreased significantly, indicating improved cost management [7] - The company has established strategic partnerships to enhance its technological capabilities and product offerings [7]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250901 从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟踪 202509 2025 年 09 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的五维行业轮动 月度跟踪 202508 2025-08-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 模型多空对冲绩效：以 2015/01/01-2025/08/31 为回测区间，五维行业轮 动模型在申万一级行业中，六分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 21.44%，年 化波动率为 10.84%，信息比率为 1.98，月度胜率为 71.95%，历史最大 回撤为 13.30%；多头对冲全市场行业等权组合的年化收益率为 10.52%， 年化波动率为 6.58%，信息比率为 1.60，月度胜率 70.49%，历史最大回 撤为 9.36%。 ◼ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.16%, ranking second among all primary industries [14]. - The optimism in the industrial metals market is driven by expectations of a demand peak in China and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][27]. - Gold is expected to have significant upward potential due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and declining real interest rates [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 6.32 percentage points [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with small metals up 12.02%, new materials up 5.67%, energy metals up 2.89%, precious metals up 7.22%, and industrial metals up 6.95% [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,902/ton, up 1.08% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at ¥79,410/ton, up 0.91% [34]. Supply is tightening due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and a reduction in Codelco's production target [34]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,619/ton, down 0.11%, while SHFE aluminum closed at ¥20,740/ton, up 0.53% [37]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 44.035 million tons [39]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,814/ton, up 0.30%, while SHFE zinc closed at ¥22,140/ton, down 0.61% [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,950/ton, up 3.26%, and SHFE tin closed at ¥278,650/ton, up 4.78% [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10/oz, up 2.89%, and SHFE gold closed at ¥785.12/g, up 1.52% [50]. The report highlights the significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for further declines in real interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [4][51]. The demand for gold in China is strong, with net imports through Hong Kong expected to reach 43.923 tons by July 2025, reflecting a 126.81% increase [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in investment weight towards automotive dividend style configurations for the second half of 2025 [3][52]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a week-on-week increase of 9.4% in insurance registrations, indicating a continued recovery in demand [2][46]. - The report highlights the performance of various segments, with commercial cargo vehicles leading the gains at +1.6%, followed by commercial passenger vehicles at +0.8% [2]. - Key companies such as BYD and Great Wall Motors reported significant revenue growth in Q2 2025, with BYD achieving a revenue of 200.92 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - The total insurance registrations for passenger vehicles reached 470,000 units, reflecting a 9.4% increase from the previous week [46]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance in A-shares ranked 14th, while Hong Kong shares ranked 5th [7][9]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the automotive industry is at a crossroads, with the end of the electric vehicle dividend and the rise of automotive intelligence [3]. - It suggests a focus on dividend and structural opportunities in segments such as buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers [3]. Company Performance - Great Wall Motors reported a revenue of 52.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7% [2]. - BYD's Q2 2025 revenue was 200.92 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 16.3%, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous quarters [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles in 2025, projecting a total retail sales volume of 23.7 million units, a 4.1% increase year-on-year [47][48]. - The introduction of policies to support vehicle scrappage and replacement is expected to further boost domestic consumption [47][55].

Macro Strategy - The central government's budget for 2025 is expected to increase by 282.5 billion yuan, with significant growth in defense spending (119.5 billion yuan), debt interest payments (77.2 billion yuan), and scientific research (36.2 billion yuan) [1] Fixed Income - The convertible bond market is experiencing accumulating divergences, with a recommendation to reduce exposure to high-priced targets while increasing ETF allocations to balance risks [2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 4 basis points to 1.785% during the week of August 18-22, 2025 [3] Green Bonds - In the week of August 18-22, 2025, 16 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 6.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.34 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Company Analysis Top Group (601689) - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 3.358 billion yuan and 4.312 billion yuan, respectively, due to intense industry competition and a decline in profitability [5] Xusheng Group (603305) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 500 million yuan, 605 million yuan, and 750 million yuan, reflecting a decrease due to declining sales from major clients and fierce competition [6] China Galaxy (601881) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 13 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan, and 14.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30%, 7%, and 7% respectively [7] Better Ray (835185) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 remains at 1.2 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 29%, 25%, and 19% [8] Nanwang Energy (003035) - The company achieved a revenue of 1.603 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and a net profit of 214 million yuan, up 4.5% [9] Chip Source Micro (688037) - The company reported a significant improvement in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 430 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.6% [10] Xinhua Du (002264) - The company reported a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but a net profit of 147 million yuan, an increase of 1.2% [11] Zhongmin Energy (600163) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 920 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 11.2, 10.3, and 9.9 [12] Water Well Square (600779) - The company reported a revenue of approximately 1.498 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 12.8%, and a net profit of approximately 105 million yuan, a decline of 56.5% [13] China Heavy Truck (000951) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 1.658 billion yuan, 1.894 billion yuan, and 2.165 billion yuan due to expected declines in heavy truck exports to Russia [14] Juewei Food (603517) - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting net profits of 400 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 560 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 77%, 26%, and 10% [15] Old White Dry Wine (600559) - The company reported a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, an increase of 5.4% [16] Chinese Online (300364) - The company is undergoing a critical transformation period, with a focus on new business investments, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [17] China Pacific Insurance (601601) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 51.6 billion yuan, 52.7 billion yuan, and 55.3 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on high-quality development [18] Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 300 million yuan, 343 million yuan, and 400 million yuan, with a focus on enhancing competitiveness through new product launches [19] Huazhong CNC (300161) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 70 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 197 million yuan, reflecting a cautious outlook on the high-end CNC system market [20] New Energy (02688.HK) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 70.9 billion yuan, 74.2 billion yuan, and 78.0 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth outlook [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 330 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50.47 million yuan, up 7.81% year-on-year [1] - The sensor business continues to grow, while the actuator business has seen a decline due to reduced sales in electroacoustic components [7] - The company is developing new sensor products for liquid cooling applications, which are expected to enhance its market position [7] - The global sensor market is projected to reach 208.59 billion USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 8.1%, and the Chinese sensor market is expected to grow to 406.12 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.4% [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.02 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on its growth trajectory [7] Financial Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 467.08 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 76.98 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 45.32% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 57.74 [1] - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with revenue expected to reach 1.15 billion yuan by 2027 [1][8]