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东吴证券:晨会纪要-20241231
东吴证券· 2024-12-30 23:38
请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 事件:欧盟、美国对华香兰素发起双反调查。1)欧盟:2024 年 5 月 24 日,应欧洲企业 Syensqo 提出的申请,欧盟委员会对原产于中国的香兰素 启动反倾销立案调查。2)美国:①2024 年 6 月 25 日,美国商务部对进 口自中国的香兰素发起反倾销和反补贴调查。②2024 年 11 月 12 日,美 国商务部对进口自中国的香兰素作出反补贴初裁,初步裁定 Jiaxing Guihua Chemical Import and Export Co., Ltd.和中国其他生产商/出口商的 税率均为 27.33%。 产品丰富+客户稳定,公司香兰素、凉味剂在国际市 场上拥有高占有率:产品方面:公司是我国香料香精行业知名企业,已成 功开发天然香料、合成香料和凉味剂三大系列共计逾 300 多种产品。客 户方面:公司凭借产品质量、技术优势,实现对奇华顿、芬美意、德之馨 等十大国际香精香料公司的全覆盖。公司也通过严格的审批程序,历经一 年以上审核周期,与玛氏箭牌、亿滋国际等快速消费品公司建立长期稳定 的合作关系。 泰国子公司项目布局香兰素产能,公司受 ...
东华能源:PDH龙头盈利承压,新建碳纤维项目有序推进
东吴证券· 2024-12-30 13:47
东华能源(002221) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|---------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 29199 | 27123 | 28523 | 26255 | 21190 | | 同比( % ) | 1.80 | (7.11) | 5.16 | (7.95) | (19.29) | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 42.37 | 150.52 | 167.50 | 326.05 | 517.97 | | 同比( % ) | (96.71) | 255.22 | 11.29 | 94.65 | 58.86 | | EPS- 最新摊薄(元 / 股) | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.33 | | P/E (现价 & 最新摊薄) | 373.82 | 105.24 | ...
雅本化学:新技术取得突破,加速布局医药与农化领域
东吴证券· 2024-12-30 13:27
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·基础化工 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|----------|---------|---------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2001 | 1279 | 1260 | 1451 | 1638 | | 同比( % ) | (3.42) | (36.09) | (1.44) | 15.09 | 12.92 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 202.95 | (82.29) | (83.04) | (44.06) | 6.23 | | 同比( % ) | 11.60 | (140.55) | (0.90) | 46.94 | 114.13 | | EPS- 最新摊薄(元 / 股) | 0.21 | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.05) | 0.01 | | P/E (现价 & 最新摊薄) | 3 ...
华昌化工:生产活动有序推进,中控室创新升级谋发展
东吴证券· 2024-12-30 13:26
华昌化工(002274) 生产活动有序推进,中控室创新升级谋发展 2024 年 12 月 30 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 9045 | 8215 | 7538 | 8546 | 9255 | | 同比( % ) | (3.91) | (9.18) | (8.24) | 13.38 | 8.29 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 872.11 | 729.68 | 581.20 | 697.94 | 794.34 | | 同比( % ) | (46.61) | (16.33) | (20.35) | 20.08 | 13.81 | | EPS- 最新摊薄(元 / 股) | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.61 | 0.73 | 0.83 | | ...
汽车周观点:第三周交强险同比+2.7%,继续看好汽车板块!
东吴证券· 2024-12-30 09:32
证券研究报告 汽车周观点: 第三周交强险同比+2.7%,继续看好汽车板块! 证券分析师 :黄细里 执业证书编号:S0600520010001 联系邮箱:huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月30日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ( 全板块最新周观点 ◼ 本周复盘总结:十二月第三周交强险符合预期(同环比+2.7%/+0.6% )。本周SW汽 车指数+0.7%,细分板块涨跌幅排序: SW商用载货车(+3.5%)>SW乘用车(+2.3%)> 重卡指数(+1.1%)>SW汽车(+0.7%)>SW商用载客车(+0.3%)> SW摩托车及其他(+0.1 %)> SW汽车零部件(-0.1%)。本周已覆盖标的银轮股份、上汽集团、理想汽车-W、双 环传动、江淮汽车涨幅较好。 ◼ 行业大事: 1)12月21日,蔚来行政旗舰轿车ET9正式上市,共推出两个版本:ET9售 价78.8万元;ET9首发限量版,售价81.8万元。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果:客车12月月报。 2 最新板块观点 ◼ 2025年行业核心假设: ➢ 国内以旧换新政策大概率延续从而托底乘用车内需2025年2266万辆(同比+0.5%) ➢ 新车供给 ...
东吴证券:晨会纪要-20241230
东吴证券· 2024-12-30 01:10
证券研究报告 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 A 股缩量收涨,万得微盘股指数反弹上涨 1.6%,红利指数下跌 0.5%, 大小盘持续分化。沪指上涨 0.14%至 3398.08 点,较 23 年末上涨 14.22%; 创业板指上涨 0.39%至 2209.85 点,较 23 年末上涨 16.84%;风格指数方 面,代表大盘股的沪深 300 上涨 0.05%至 3987.48 点,较 23 年末上涨 16.22%;中证 500 上涨 0.80%至 5887.06 点,较 23 年末上涨 8.43%。行 业层面,通信上涨 3.58%,综合上涨 2.78%,电子上涨 2.40%,煤炭下跌 1.26%,建筑材料下跌 1.25%,公用事业下跌 1.10%。市场成交额为 12863.54 亿元,较前一交易日缩量 82.94 亿元,北向资金总成交 2527.71 亿元;南向资金净买入 121.70 亿元。 板块方面,国务院办公厅印发 《关于优化完善地方政府专项债券管理机制的意见》将低空经济、算力设 备及辅助设备基础设施等新兴产业基础设施等纳入专项债券用作项目资 本金范围,界面新闻称小米将对 AI 大模型大力投入,低空经济 ...
电力设备行业跟踪周报:锂电和大储需求旺盛、AI电气和人形热点不断
东吴证券· 2024-12-30 01:02
Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electrical equipment sector, driven by strong demand in energy storage and electric vehicles [105][108] Core Views - The energy storage sector is experiencing robust growth, with the US market leading the charge. In Q2 2024, US energy storage installations surged by 79% YoY, with large-scale storage projects accounting for the majority of this growth [130] - The electric vehicle (EV) market continues to expand, with China's EV sales reaching 1.512 million units in November 2024, a 47% YoY increase. The report revises its 2024 sales forecast to 13 million units, up 37% YoY [203] - The lithium battery industry is poised for a rebound, with global demand expected to grow by 30% in 2025, driven by both EV and energy storage applications [228] Sector-Specific Insights Energy Storage - US large-scale energy storage installations in October 2024 reached 754MW, a 317% YoY increase, with a total capacity of 2.2GWh. The average storage duration was 2.9 hours [130] - Germany's energy storage market saw a 58.7% YoY increase in large-scale storage installations in November 2024, with 49.2MW added [133] - The report highlights the strong demand for energy storage in emerging markets, with Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America showing significant growth potential [105] Electric Vehicles - BYD led the Chinese EV market in November 2024 with 507,000 units sold, a 68% YoY increase. Other notable performers include Li Auto (49,000 units) and XPeng (31,000 units) [203] - The report predicts that China's EV market will grow by 25% in 2025, driven by continued government incentives and the introduction of new models [203] - Tesla's FSD v13.2.2 and its collaboration with CATL are expected to further boost the EV market, particularly in the US and Europe [105] Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium carbonate market remains stable, with prices hovering around 71,900 RMB/ton. Despite high production rates, demand from cathode manufacturers remains subdued [43] - The ternary materials market is expected to see a 4% YoY growth in China in 2024, although global demand may decline due to reduced subsidies in Europe and lower-than-expected EV sales in the US [44] - The report notes that the price of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials is under pressure, with a 10% decline expected in January 2025 due to the Lunar New Year holiday [53] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is facing weak demand, with module prices remaining volatile. Topcon modules are priced between 0.65-0.73 RMB/W, while HJT modules are stable at 0.75 RMB/W [68] - The report highlights the impact of upstream price increases on the PV supply chain, with silicon wafer and cell prices rising in response to higher silicon costs [87][88] - The PV industry is expected to see a 20% YoY growth in global installations in 2024, with China accounting for 240GW of the total 490GW [105] Wind Power - The wind power sector is set for a strong recovery in 2025, with offshore wind installations expected to double YoY to 13GW. Onshore wind installations are forecast to grow by 25% to over 100GW [105] - The report notes that wind turbine prices are rising, driven by changes in bidding rules and strong demand from state-owned enterprises [105] Grid Investment - Grid investment in China is expected to grow by 8% in 2024, with a focus on ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects and renewable energy integration [105] - The report highlights the potential for grid upgrades in both domestic and international markets, driven by the need to support renewable energy and AI-driven demand [105]
长光华芯:公司近况点评:高研发投入深化光芯片产业布局,静待新品起量
东吴证券· 2024-12-29 23:42
长光华芯(688048) 公司近况点评:高研发投入深化光芯片产业 布局,静待新品起量 2024 年 12 月 29 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级:鉴于公司近两年为抓住市场机遇持续加大研发投 入,短期影响公司利润,我们对公司 2024-2025 年的归母净利润预测调 整为-0.6/0.2 亿元(前次预测值为 1.4/2.6 亿元),新增 2026 年归母净利 润预测为 0.7 亿元。公司作为国内激光芯片领军企业,持续推进"纵向 +横向"扩张的业务布局,多产品领域拓展客户,有序扩张产能,蓄力 长期发展,在国产替代的浪潮下有望凭借自身竞争优势充分受益,维持 公司"买入"评级。 -62% -53% -44% -35% -26% -17% -8% 1% 10% 19% 2023/12/29 2024/4/28 2024/8/27 2024/12/26 长光华芯 沪深300 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------| | | | | | | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ,LF) | 17.13 | | ...
中国巨石:产能完善布局、优化存量,提升分红强化股东回报
东吴证券· 2024-12-29 23:42
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·玻璃玻纤 买入(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级:行业盈利仍处底部区域,二三线企业普遍亏损, 将持续制约产能投放节奏,粗纱下游风电、热塑等领域继续增长,渗透 率稳步提升,行业供需平衡修复有持续性,有望支撑行业景气继续改善。 公司凭借生产成本优势和产能国际化优势,进一步强化产品差异化、高 端化布局,有望巩固竞争优势,提升中长期盈利稳定性。公司市净率估 值仍处历史低位,主要股东增持彰显发展信心,积极提升分红以及盈利 改善预期有望推动估值修复,基于公司风电、热塑短切产品提价落地, 我们预计公司 2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为 22.2/29.9/39.8 亿元(前值 为 22.2/27.9/36.2 亿元),对应市盈率 21/15/12 倍,维持"买入"评级。 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书:S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书:S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书:S06005211200 ...