通信/通信设备 天孚通信（300394.SZ） 业绩符合预期，积极布局前沿技术 2025 年 10 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/10/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 194.50 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 225.05/57.11 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,512.07 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,509.03 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.77 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.76 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 318.28 | 股价走势图 -120% -60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 天孚通信 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《业绩表现亮眼，有源产品快速放量 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.8.26 《业绩符合预期，积极布局前沿技术 领域—公司信息更新报告》-2025.4.21 蒋颖（分析师） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 业绩符合预期，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported steady growth in Q3, with revenue reaching 19.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.22 billion yuan, up 81.92% year-on-year and 9.75% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company is accelerating its layout in the AI server power supply sector, aiming to enhance its product offerings and expand its customer base both domestically and internationally [6][7] - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of several mainstream AI terminal customers and has launched its first AI smart charger, which is expected to expand into more AI terminal applications [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.59 billion yuan, up 19.32% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 20.56%, an increase of 2.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.98%, up 2.50 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.26 billion yuan, 8.12 billion yuan, and 10.21 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.3, 16.4, and 13.0 times [4][7] Business Development - The company has a mature product matrix in the server power supply sector, covering a power range from 550W to 8000W, and has achieved large-scale delivery [6] - The company is actively expanding its overseas customer market through existing channels and partnerships [6][7]

Group 1: Key Achievements and Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" achieved significant milestones, marking a strong start for the new journey towards the second centenary goal[5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase in achieving socialist modernization, emphasizing continuity in guiding ideology and urgency in addressing uncertainties[6] - The implicit economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 5%, with a focus on maintaining growth within a reasonable range to reach the per capita GDP level of moderately developed countries by 2035[7][21] Group 2: Technological and Economic Strategies - The plan emphasizes enhancing self-reliance in technology, with specific measures to boost productivity and foster innovation in key sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials[8][36] - The strategy includes a focus on balancing supply and demand, with a significant emphasis on boosting domestic consumption and investing in human capital[9][41] - The plan aims to maintain reasonable investment growth, particularly in public services and infrastructure, with an estimated investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for urban infrastructure upgrades[10][57] Group 3: Fiscal and Market Reforms - The plan highlights the need for sustainable fiscal policies and the activation of existing resources to enhance macroeconomic governance[11] - It calls for the establishment of a unified national market, addressing barriers to competition and promoting a more integrated economic environment[10][65] - The emphasis on expanding high-level openness and balancing imports and exports is aimed at fostering a more resilient economic structure[10][62]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in revenue in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.44%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 26.3% year-on-year to 0.8 billion yuan [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, particularly in the upcoming peak season, with ongoing reforms in traditional channels and expansion into overseas markets, especially in Southeast Asia [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 15.3 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, down 43.7% year-on-year [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.4 billion yuan (down 0.1 billion), 3.0 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan (down 0.5 billion), respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.9, 17.5, and 14.3 times [4][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 37.1%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.9%, down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][11] Revenue and Cost Structure - The company has developed a product matrix consisting of flavored beans, nuts, snacks, and healthy legumes, which is expected to support sales in the upcoming peak season [5] - The sales expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 17.3%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased spending on brand advertising and online marketing [6][11] Market Outlook - The company is focusing on channel reforms, with improvements in traditional supermarket channels and continued growth in snack wholesale channels. E-commerce channels are also being developed, particularly on platforms like Douyin [5] - The upcoming Chinese New Year in 2026 is expected to boost sales in the snack category, as consumption scenarios during the holiday season are anticipated to stimulate demand [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 5.1 billion and 2 billion CNY respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 14% and 38%. The net profit for the third quarter alone was 960 million CNY, up 20% quarter-on-quarter and 75% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [4][6] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.9 billion, 3.4 billion, and 3.9 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24%, 18%, and 14% [4][6] - The company benefits from a strong geographical advantage and a deepening transformation in wealth management, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 1.0, indicating a margin of safety [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company's brokerage net income was 1.4 billion CNY, up 66% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in market trading volume. The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 19.6 trillion CNY, a 112% increase year-on-year [5] - The investment income for the first three quarters was 1.49 billion CNY, a 25% increase year-on-year, with an annualized investment return rate of 4.2%, up from 3.2% in the mid-year report [6] - Interest income also saw a rise, reaching 500 million CNY for the first three quarters, up 31% year-on-year [6] Business Segments - The brokerage business showed strong growth, while the investment banking and asset management segments faced challenges, with net income from investment banking down 29% year-on-year [5] - The asset management business reported a net income of 960 million CNY, down 19% year-on-year, indicating a need for improvement in this area [5] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 7.15 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.8%. The projected net profit for the same year is 2.9 billion CNY, reflecting a 24% increase [8] - Key financial ratios include a gross margin of 48.6% and a net margin of 40.6% for 2025, indicating strong profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in its core business, with total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 20.76 billion and 6.57 billion respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 54% and 130% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment in both A-shares and H-shares, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The company is anticipated to experience a "Davis Double" effect due to a recovery in fundamentals and valuation repair [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.03 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [8] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 10.41 billion, reflecting an 82.9% increase year-on-year [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 8.9% in 2025, up from 6.0% in 2023 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.3 in 2023 to 9.6 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [8][12] Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business net income for the first three quarters reached 4.5 billion, up 76% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in market trading volume [5] - Investment banking revenue for the same period was 2.94 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in IPO underwriting amounts [5] - Asset management revenue also showed growth, reaching 1.1 billion, up 27% year-on-year [5] Investment Income and Cost Management - Proprietary investment income for the first three quarters was 10.3 billion, reflecting a 66% year-on-year increase [6] - The company has maintained a stable cost management strategy, with business and management expenses increasing by 25% year-on-year [6] - Interest expenses decreased by 15% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [6]

通信/通信设备 新易盛（300502.SZ） 2025 年 10 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/10/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 406.10 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 433.33/65.64 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,036.52 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 3,595.58 | | 总股本(亿股) | 9.94 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.85 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 354.9 | 股价走势图 -120% 0% 120% 240% 360% 480% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 新易盛 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《大力布局高速光模块产品，盈利能 力不断提升—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.8.26 《业绩表现亮眼，光模块领军地位不 断提升 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.24 ——公司信息更新报告 蒋颖（分析师） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 业绩符合预期，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 100.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan. The growth was primarily driven by international operator market revenue and a 130% increase in government and enterprise business revenue, despite pressure on domestic operator revenue [3][4] - The company is accelerating its breakthrough in the domestic intelligent computing market, with a significant increase in overseas market share for operators. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 8.069 billion, 9.016 billion, and 9.774 billion yuan, respectively [3][4] - The company has maintained a strong growth rate in its intelligent computing server and data center products, with a 180% year-on-year increase in the computing segment, contributing 25% to total revenue [4][5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue of 128.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 8.069 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.2% year-on-year [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 41.5% in 2023 to 34.9% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 6.3% in 2025 [7][9] - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 17.814 billion yuan, accounting for 17.72% of total revenue [5][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 600 million yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 1.49 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase, with a net profit of 230 million yuan, marking a 33.5% year-on-year growth. The net profit margin showed strong performance [4][6] - The company has adjusted its online e-commerce strategy, leading to a stable revenue growth rate of 6.0% in Q3. This adjustment involved reducing low-margin product sales and cutting back on high marketing expenses, which impacted online sales. However, traditional supermarkets continued to decline, while the high-demand snack wholesale channels experienced rapid growth [5] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31.6%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from optimized channel and product structures. The selling expense ratio decreased to 8.6%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced marketing spending in e-commerce channels [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 6.049 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 798 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.7% [8] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a gross margin of 31.2% and a net margin of 13.2% for 2025. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 34.9% [8][11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the company is expected to decrease from 38.0 in 2023 to 24.1 in 2025, and further to 17.3 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation trend [8][10]

宏观经济点评 美联储 12 月降息可能性仍较大 宏观研究团队 ——10 月 FOMC 会议点评 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122110044 事件：美联储于北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨 2 点发布 10 月 FOMC 会议声明，宣布 继续降息 25bp，并于 12 月 1 日起结束缩表。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储在此次会议上宣布继续降息 25bp 至 3.75%-4.0%区间。缩表方面，将在 12 月 1 日起停止缩表。 2. 继续降息 25bp，12 月开始停止缩表，再次出现 2 张反对票。在声明中，美联 储的措辞同 9 月份相比基本维持不变。美联储认为经济活动正以温和的速度扩 张。就业方面，美联储认为就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，但仍保持在较低水 平；通胀方面，承认通胀仍处于较高水平。此外，美联储认为近几个月来就业下 行风险有所上升。本次会议还决定将于 12 月 1 日起结束缩表，宣告美联储量化 紧缩告一段落。与 9 月会议相似，本次会议中再次出现反对票，且 ...