- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

税收收入同比转负，投资于人重要性凸显 固定收益研究团队 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：财政部公布 2025 年 12 月财政数据，1-12 月全国一般公共预算收入同比下 降 1.7%（前值为+0.8%，下同），支出同比增长 1.0%（+1.4%）；1-12 月全国政府 性基金预算收入同比下降 7.0%（-4.9%），支出同比增长 11.3%（+13.7%）。 2026 年 02 月 02 日 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据点评 12 月财政数据的关注点 税收收入同比转负，非税收入降幅扩大。12 月税收收入同比下降 11.5%（+2.8%）， 同比转负，结束连续 8 个月的正增长，12 月企业所得税回落或为当月税收收入 增幅放缓的主要原因。12 月证券交易印花税同比下降 4.8%，增幅在 12 月权益市 场震荡调整与 2024 年同期基数回升影响下转负。非税收入降幅的扩大或因 2024 年一次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬高基数。 在投资于 ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 券商金股解析月报（2026 年 02 月） 金融工程研究团队 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 2 月份券商金股特征解析 2 月份紫金矿业、中际旭创、海光信息、万华化学、贵州茅台、福斯特、山东黄 金等金股推 ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 券商金股解析月报（2026 年 02 月） 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 2 月份券商金股特征解析 2 月份紫金矿业、中际旭创、海光信息、万华化学、贵州茅台、福斯特、山东黄 金等金股推 ...

Index Adjustment - The North Exchange 50 Index will undergo its first adjustment of 2026 on March 16, with three companies expected to be added: Tiangong Co., Ltd., Guangxin Technology, and Jikang Technology[2][14] - The adjustment will remove companies that rank low based on average daily market capitalization, with no substantial impact on the operations of the companies being removed[2][18] Index Fund Growth - The scale of North Exchange 50 index funds has seen significant growth from 2.94 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.165 billion CNY by January 31, 2026[2][18] - The number of products tracking the North Exchange 50 index increased from 16 in 2022 to 79 by the end of January 2026[2][18] Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1,531.55 points, down 3.59% from the previous week, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PETTM) of 64.12X[2][32] - The overall PE ratio for North Exchange A-shares decreased to 47.58X, while the ChiNext and STAR Market also saw declines in their PE ratios[2][23][32] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 29.948 billion CNY, reflecting an increase of 11.62% week-over-week[2][26] - The average turnover rate for North Exchange A-shares was 5.88%, up by 0.44 percentage points[2][26] Valuation Trends - As of January 31, 2026, 44.86% of North Exchange companies had a PETTM exceeding 45X, indicating a high valuation environment[2][37] - The valuation gap between North Exchange and other markets is widening, suggesting a relative valuation advantage for North Exchange stocks[2][47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid development of AI applications in social media, gaming, and marketing, with significant growth potential in user engagement and monetization opportunities [3][4] - The emergence of AI social platforms like Moltbook and Tencent's Yuanbao indicates a shift towards more interactive AI-driven social experiences, which could lead to increased user traffic and revenue generation through various channels [3] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from advancements in AI tools, such as Genie3 and Taptap Maker, which lower the barriers for game development and enhance content diversity [4] Industry Data Overview - The report notes that "Fashion Department City" ranked first in the iOS free game chart in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS revenue chart [10] - The film "Zootopia 2" achieved the highest box office revenue for the week, with a total of 4.453 billion yuan [20] - The gaming sector saw a high volume of game approvals in January, with "Supernatural Action Group" achieving over 10 million daily active users [23] Industry News Summary - Major AI models are entering a phase of intensive updates, with significant advancements in AI social, gaming, and film sectors [23] - Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking model has been released, boasting over a trillion parameters and achieving performance comparable to leading international models [24] - OpenAI launched Prism, a workspace designed for researchers, integrating various tools for collaborative scientific writing [25] - Kimi's K2.5 model supports visual understanding and code capabilities, enhancing user interaction with AI [26]

事件点评 2026 年 02 月 02 日 PMI 环比回落，建筑业业务活动预期降至临界以下 固定收益研究团队 ——2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） 春节假期叠加供需矛盾或为制造业 PMI 超预期回落的原因。制造业生产指数为 50.6%，制造业生产保持扩张；制造业新订单指数为 49.2%，环比下降 1.6pct， 重回收缩区间。制造业生产淡季回落，供需矛盾或进一步压制生产端扩产。同时 也需要考虑 12 月超预期增长后可能的回调。 短期内市场内需不足或将持续。制造业新订单指数为 49.2%，环比下降 1.6pct， 重回收缩区间，制造业需求有所放缓；非制造业新订单指数为 46.1%，环比下降 1.2pct，连续 33 个月处于收缩区间。建筑业、服务业新订单指数均处于收缩区间， 短期内市场内需不足或将持续。 价格方面呈现积极信号，反内卷限制物价下行，市场选择一些类别开始涨价。 主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为56.1%和50.6%，环比提升3.0pct 和 1.7pct，出厂价格指数近 20 个月来首次升至扩张区间，制造业市场价格总体 水平改善，需持续重视"通胀正 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a stable pricing environment for third-generation refrigerants, with potential for a new round of price increases. Companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. and Haohua Technology have announced profit increases for 2025 [4][19] - The industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire fluorochemical value chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [25] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - Fluorite prices have stabilized and are expected to gradually recover, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite at 3,314 CNY/ton as of January 30, 2026, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [19][20] - The fluorochemical index decreased by 4.98% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.54% [6][38] 2. Refrigerant Pricing Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 50,000 CNY/ton, R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, and R410a at 55,500 CNY/ton, all remaining stable compared to the previous week [21][22] - The market for refrigerants is entering a demand off-season, but there is potential for price increases as domestic demand is expected to rise with the upcoming peak season [23][24] 3. Company Performance and Announcements - Juhua Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 3.54 to 3.94 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 80% to 101%. Haohua Technology anticipates a net profit of 1.38 to 1.48 billion CNY, a growth of 30.96% to 40.44% [10] - Other companies such as Luxi Chemical and ST Lianchuang also forecast significant profit increases for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [10] 4. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhou Bang [11][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of Tesla's Robotaxi strategy, focusing on a dual-seat Cybercab to address 90% of travel scenarios [5][13] - Tesla has disclosed that approximately 1.1 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) paid users account for about 12% of its total vehicle sales, with a year-on-year growth of 38% [14] - The Shanghai government has introduced a subsidy for replacing old vehicles with new energy vehicles, offering an 8% subsidy on the purchase price, capped at 15,000 yuan [14] - The National Energy Administration plans to establish 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027, expected to drive over 200 billion yuan in investments [15] - The global humanoid robot shipment is projected to increase by 508% in 2025, with Chinese manufacturers leading the market [20][22] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with the A-share automotive index declining by 4.67%, ranking 29th among primary industries [6][25] - The passenger vehicle index fell by 1.84%, while the commercial vehicle index decreased by 1.21% [6] - The automotive parts index saw a decline of 6.82%, with various segments experiencing different levels of performance [6] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, there is an unexpected demand in the domestic high-end luxury market, with recommendations for Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, while Geely Automobile is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommendations for Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, Meili Technology, and others, while Weichai Power and others are seen as beneficiaries [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the duty-free sales sector in Hainan, with January sales reaching 4.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [5][15] - The company "Guoquan" is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.75-7.85 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8%-21.3%, with net profit projected to be 443-463 million yuan, a significant increase of 83.7%-92% [21][24] - The AI application sector is experiencing notable growth, with "Meitu Design Studio" and "Kuaishou Keling" seeing substantial increases in user engagement and revenue [26][31] Summary by Sections Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales in Hainan are showing strong growth, with cumulative shopping amounts reaching 10.05 billion yuan since the new policy implementation, a year-on-year increase of 25.32% [15][17] - The average daily passenger flow at Haikou Meilan and Sanya Phoenix airports has increased, indicating a robust tourism market [18][19] Guoquan - Guoquan's revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 7.75-7.85 billion yuan, with a net profit of 443-463 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [21][24] - The company plans to expand its store network significantly, adding 1,416 new stores to reach a total of 11,566, focusing on lower-tier markets [22][27] AI Applications - "Meitu Design Studio" has seen a significant increase in domestic traffic, with a month-on-month growth of 29.76% in November and 23.53% in December 2025 [30][31] - "Kuaishou Keling" has launched a new model, achieving a 350% increase in paid users and generating over 20 million USD in revenue in December 2025 [31][33] Beauty and Health Brands - "Qingmu Technology" is expected to see a profit increase of 30%-50% in 2025, with its private care brand "Keman Duo" showing strong sales growth [34][35] - "Zuccari" is also projected to grow significantly, with a revenue increase of over 95% in the first half of 2025 [36] Instant Retail - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, with Alibaba's "Taobao Flash Purchase" showing rapid growth in order volume and revenue [57][59] - The report indicates that the demand for instant delivery services is increasing, benefiting companies like "SF Same City" [61][62]