沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 沪深300 创业板指 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 2.699 | | 通信 | 2.105 | | 计算机 | 1.987 | | 房地产 | 1.849 | | 综合 | 1.755 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 【社服】聚焦 Canva 看全球创意工具市场，中医美容成新潮流风尚——行业周报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.757 | -20250615 | | 美容护理 | -0.493 | 【地产建筑】华夏北京保障房 扩募发售完成，保障房 表现持续优异 REIT REITs | | 有色金属 | -0.429 | ——行业周报-20250615 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.331 | 【地产建筑：新城控股(601155.SH)】商管经营持续稳健，母公司重启美元债融资 | | 医药生物 | -0.283 | ——公司信息更新报告-2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) rates but a reduction in year-on-year (YoY) declines. The overall new housing price YoY decline has narrowed to 4.1% [8][14] - The second-hand housing prices have also shown a narrowing YoY decline of 6.3%, although the MoM decline has expanded to -0.5% [21][8] - The report highlights that the market is expected to stabilize further due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies, alongside ongoing urban renewal projects [8] Summary by Sections New Housing Prices - In May 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased MoM by -0.2%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with the overall decline across 70 cities being -0.2%, an increase in the decline compared to April [14][16] - YoY, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -1.7%, -3.5%, and -4.9% respectively, with the overall YoY decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% [14][16] Second-Hand Housing Prices - The second-hand housing prices in May 2025 decreased MoM by -0.5%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -0.7%, -0.5%, and -0.5% respectively [21][23] - YoY, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities decreased by -6.3%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -2.7%, -6.1%, and -6.9% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline by 0.5 percentage points [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong credit ratings and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][29] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, including China Resources Land and Longfor Group [8][29] - Additionally, it highlights property management firms with high service quality under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, such as China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [8][29]

商贸零售 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《高端中式黄金品牌"琳朝珠宝"获 得天使轮投资—行业周报》-2025.6.8 《老铺黄金、潮宏基发布新品，关注 差异化产品力优势—行业周报》 -2025.6.2 《医美化妆品 4 月月报：华熙生物两 款三类械抗衰产品获批，关注 618 国 货美妆表现—行业点评报告》 -2025.5.25 泡泡玛特跨界珠宝圈，旗下品牌 POPOP 首店开业 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 泡泡玛特跨界珠宝行业，旗下品牌 POPOP 首店于上海港汇恒隆开业 本周泡泡玛特旗下珠宝品牌 POPOP 首店于上海港汇恒隆开业。PO ...

《豆包引领大模型/Agent 再升级，积 极 关 注 电 影 暑 期 档 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.15 行 业 研 究 2025 年 06 月 16 日 《关注火山引擎原动力大会，聚焦 AI 应用及 IP 商业化 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.8 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 传媒 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《模型与应用再升级，新游表现亮眼， 继续布局 AI 、 IP — 行业周报》 -2025.6.2 供需共振下游戏或步入景气上行周期，继续布局游戏 ——行业点评报告 | 方光照（分析师） | 田鹏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | fangguangzhao@kysec.cn | tianpeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030004 | 证书编号：S0790523090001 | tianpeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523090001 游戏行业保持高景气，用户情绪消费需求与游戏供给释放共振 根据 ...

北交所信息更新 北 交 所 研 究 北 交 所 信 息 更 秋乐种业（831087.BJ） 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/6/16 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 19.77 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 32.44/5.12 | | 总市值(亿元) | 32.66 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 31.76 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.65 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.61 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 561.04 | 北交所研究团队 国内玉米种业领军者业绩短期承压，静待研发与渠道发力迎拐点 ——北交所信息更新 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2024 年收入 3.91 亿，2025Q1 实现营收 1919.43 万元 2024 年实现营收 3.91 亿元（-26.77%）；归母净利润 5044 万元（-36.49%），毛利 率为 27.86%（-4.23pct），净利率为 12.89%（-1.98pct）。2025Q1 实现营收 1919.43 万 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in sales scale and ranking, but its commercial management operations remain strong with double-digit growth in rental income. The overall business performance is stable, and the commercial occupancy rate remains high. The parent company has restarted USD bond financing, which is the first case of a private real estate company issuing overseas bonds in the past two years. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained, with expected net profits of 1.05 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.67, and 0.78 yuan [5][8]. Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 1.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.90%, and a sales area of 252,600 square meters, down 56.12% year-on-year. The cumulative contract sales amount from January to May 2025 was 8.836 billion yuan, a decline of 55.27%, with a cumulative sales area of 1.1386 million square meters, down 58.40% year-on-year [6]. Commercial Management - As of the end of May 2025, the company operated and managed a total of 174 Wuyue Plazas, an increase of 13 from the same period in 2024. The total leased property area reached 16.04 million square meters. The cumulative commercial operating revenue from January to May 2025 was 5.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with May's single-month rental income at 1.1 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year [7]. Financing Activities - On June 12, 2025, the parent company announced the successful issuance of 300 million USD in senior notes with a coupon rate of 11.88% and a maturity of three years. The funds will be used to repurchase two upcoming maturing USD bonds. This issuance marks the first case of a private real estate company restarting overseas USD bond financing in two years, with subscriptions exceeding 880 million USD [8]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's projected financial performance includes: - Revenue for 2025 estimated at 74.206 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year - Net profit for 2025 estimated at 1.045 billion yuan, up 38.9% year-on-year - EPS for 2025 estimated at 0.46 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 29.1 times [9][20].

数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 商贸零售 沪深300 商贸零售 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 国家统计局发布 2025 年 1-5 月社会消费品零售总额（下简称"社零"）数据：1-5 月社零总额为 203171 亿元（同比+5.0%，下同），其中 5 月社零总额 41326 亿元 （+6.4%，高于 Wind 一致预期+4.9%）。分地域看，1-5 月城镇/乡村社零同比分 别+5.1%/+4.9%。我们认为，在国内积极的政策刺激下内需呈现边际向好，整体 社会消费活力显现，部分可选品类增势明显向上，期待后续消费动能持续提升。 相关研究报告 《高端中式黄金品牌"琳朝珠宝"获 得天使轮投资—行业周报》-2025.6.8 《老铺黄金、潮宏基发布新品，关注 差 异 化 产 品 力 优 势 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.2 《医美化妆品 4 月月报：华熙生物两 款三类械抗衰产品获批，关注 618 国 货美妆表现 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.5.25 2025 年 5 月社零同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10][24] Core Views - The company maintains its position among the top three in the industry for sales, with a strong land acquisition strategy and steady growth in recurring income [5][8][10] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at 28.99 billion, 31.70 billion, and 34.91 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.07, 4.45, and 4.90 yuan [5][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.1, 5.6, and 5.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [5][9] Sales Performance - In May 2025, the total contract sales amount reached 18.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% but a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [6] - The average sales price increased significantly to 26,955 yuan per square meter, up 15.8% year-on-year, despite a decline in sales volume [6][18] Land Acquisition - The company ranked fourth in land acquisition amount from January to May 2025, with a total of 33.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53% [7] - The average land acquisition price was 31,381 yuan per square meter, which is higher than the sales price, indicating a focus on high-quality land in major cities [7] Recurring Income - Recurring income for May 2025 was 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with rental income from operational real estate reaching 2.69 billion yuan, up 13.0% [8] - The company is focusing on core assets by divesting low-efficiency assets, such as the planned sale of the Nanxiang Colorful City project in Shanghai for approximately 300 to 400 million yuan [8]

房地产/房地产开发 万科 A（000002.SZ） 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资评级：中性（下调） | 日期 | 2025/6/13 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 6.44 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.69/6.18 | | 总市值(亿元) | 768.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 625.76 | | 总股本(亿股) | 119.31 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 97.17 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 54.83 | 股价走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 万科A 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《销售规模同比下降，量入为出保持 投资—公司信息更新报告》-2025.1.7 《销售规模稳居前列，优质土地储备 充足—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.11 《行业排名稳居前三，融资端获支持 力 度 充 分 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.14 销售均价有所提升，股东持续借款提供支持 ——公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） 杜致远（联 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 06 月 16 日 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，广 州全面取消限购限售—行业周报》 -2025.6.15 《新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更 新示范城市扩容 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.8 《城市更新示范城市扩容，去库存进 程有望提速 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.6 单月销售数据仍降，新房市场延续弱复苏趋势 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 5 月销售数据依旧承压，城市市场热度分化 国家统计局发布 2025 年 1-5 月商 ...