Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has released a positive earnings forecast, expecting a net profit growth of no less than 34% year-on-year for 2025, with projected revenue of at least 3 billion HKD (up 16% or more) and adjusted net profit of no less than 3.8 billion HKD (up 40% or more) [6] - The company is focusing on a dual-driven strategy of "internal growth + external expansion," which is expected to reshape the value of the beauty industry [6] - The company has successfully integrated acquired brands, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its business footprint [7] - The company aims to establish a "super brand, super chain, and super digitalization" strategy to create new value spaces in the beauty industry [8] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 3,007 million HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [10] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 342 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.6% [10] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 1.4 HKD, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 18.0 times [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments is maintained at "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with a significant drop in net profit due to impairment provisions. However, it remains the top seller in the industry, with an optimized land reserve structure and advantageous financing channels [2][3] - The anticipated net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.03 billion, 4.42 billion, and 6.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.37, and 0.51 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 76.2, 17.7, and 12.9 times [2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve operating revenue of 308.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The total profit is expected to be 9.72 billion yuan, down 37.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 1.03 billion yuan, a decline of 79.5% [3][6] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate project transfers and an impairment loss of 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to impact net profit by 4.2 billion yuan [3][6] Sales Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 12.35 million square meters, down 31.2%. The average sales price increased by 13.9% to 20,483 yuan per square meter [4] - The company acquired land worth 77.13 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 13.0% year-on-year, with a land area of 4.572 million square meters, up 39.2%. The average land price decreased by 18.8% to 16,869 yuan per square meter [4] Financial Management and Cost Structure - The company has streamlined its headquarters organizational structure to enhance management efficiency. Financing channels remain open, with a total bond issuance of 37.58 billion yuan in 2025 at a maximum coupon rate of 2.55% [5] - The financing cost has been continuously reduced, with the three-year medium-term note issued in November at a rate of 1.85% [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary indicates a projected operating revenue of 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan. The gross margin is expected to be 12.7%, and the net margin at 0.3% [6][11] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 76.2 for 2025, decreasing to 12.9 by 2027, indicating a potential recovery in valuation as performance improves [6][11]

房地产/房地产开发 保利发展（600048.SH） 减值拖累利润水平，期待优质项目结转后业绩修复 2026 年 01 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | qidong@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 经营管理能力优秀的龙头央企，维持"买入"评级 保利发展发布 2025 年业绩快报，预计公司 2025 全年营收微降，归母净利润由于 计提减值承压，但公司销售排名稳居首位，土储结构不断优化，融资渠道畅通， 资金成本优势明显。受房地产销售景气度影响，公司计提减值规模增加，我们下 调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 10.3、44.2、60.7 亿元（前 值 42.6、52.4、64.1 亿元），EPS 分别为 0.09、0.37、0.51 元，当前股价对应 PE 估值分别为 76.2、17.7、12.9 倍，我们看好公司低价项目结转完成后业绩持续修 复，维持"买入"评级。 营收基本持平，计提减值影响利润水平 2025 全年公 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The structure of special bond expenditures in 2025 reflects the fiscal strategies of different local governments, indicating a shift in focus towards debt repayment rather than infrastructure investment [3][4][5] - The total issuance of special bonds in 2025 reached 4.59 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 590 billion yuan compared to 2024, marking the highest absolute scale in five years [4] - The proportion of special bonds allocated for debt repayment has increased significantly, with 21 provinces raising the share of funds used for debt repayment, particularly in economically significant provinces [5][6] Industry Insights - The chemical industry, particularly companies like Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, is positioned as a leader in the spandex and viscose filament sectors, with expectations for significant profit growth due to rising demand and the elimination of outdated production capacity [32][33] - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber plans to expand its production capacity, with new projects expected to generate substantial additional revenue and profit, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the coming years [34] Investment Trends - The demand for spandex is on the rise, with its penetration in the textile industry continuously increasing, supported by the ongoing elimination of outdated production capacity [33] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated upturn in spandex market conditions, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.53 billion, 3.10 billion, and 5.48 billion yuan respectively [32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company. Core Insights - Meidel is a leading supplier of intelligent conveying systems in China, with a focus on modular conveying systems and industrial components, primarily serving the new energy battery and automotive sectors [3][13] - The company's revenue from new energy batteries accounted for 61.98% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with high-precision conveying systems contributing significantly to gross profit [3][32] - Meidel's gross margin for high-precision conveying systems reached 41.08% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong profitability [40] Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Conveying Systems - Meidel's intelligent conveying systems are crucial for factory automation, integrating with production equipment to enhance efficiency in various industries, including new energy and automotive [3][13] - The company has a market share of 30.19% to 43.61% in the high-precision conveying sector, with a strong order backlog of 1.8 billion yuan as of mid-2025 [4][34] 2. Market Growth - The intelligent logistics equipment market in China grew from 31.92 billion yuan in 2018 to 100.39 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 17.60% from 2023 to 2027 [3][8] - The market for lithium battery equipment is expected to remain above 100 billion yuan through 2025, driven by increasing investments in the automotive manufacturing sector [3][8] 3. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Meidel achieved a revenue of 1.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%, and a net profit of 222.85 million yuan, up 38.83% [46][49] - The company's net profit margin improved to 21.20% in the same period, reflecting operational efficiency [49] 4. Competitive Position - Meidel maintains the highest net profit margin among comparable companies, with an average PE TTM of 69.03X for its peers [5][28] - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, including BYD and other leading firms in the new energy battery and automotive sectors [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company. Core Insights - Meidel is a leading supplier of intelligent conveyor systems in China, with a significant focus on the new energy battery sector, which accounted for 61.98% of its revenue in H1 2025 [3][32] - The company has a strong market position in high-precision conveyor systems, with a market share ranging from 30.19% to 43.61% [4][11] - The intelligent logistics equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.60% from 2023 to 2027 [3][8] Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Conveyor Systems - Meidel's main products include modular conveyor systems and industrial components, primarily serving the automation needs of manufacturing enterprises [3][13] - The high-precision conveyor systems contributed 80% of the gross profit, with a gross margin of 41.08% in H1 2025 [3][40] - Revenue for the high-precision conveyor systems reached 51,683.58 million yuan in 2025 Q1-3, showing a continuous increase [36][34] 2. Market Growth - The intelligent logistics equipment market in China grew from 31.92 billion yuan in 2018 to 100.39 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations to reach 192.02 billion yuan by 2027 [3][8] - The fixed asset investment in the automotive manufacturing industry is projected to grow from 1,268.57 billion yuan in 2022 to 1,628.27 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.29% [3][8] 3. Order Backlog - As of H1 2025, Meidel's order backlog reached 1.8 billion yuan, with new orders amounting to 1.01 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4][16] - The company is actively promoting its magnetic drive and hybrid conveyor systems, which are expected to enhance its market presence [4][11] 4. Financial Performance - In 2025 Q1-3, Meidel achieved a revenue of 1.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%, and a net profit of 222.85 million yuan, up 38.83% year-on-year [46][49] - The net profit margin improved to 21.20%, while the gross margin reached 37.30% during the same period [49][49] 5. Competitive Position - Meidel maintains the highest net profit margin among comparable companies, with an average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 69.03X for its peers [5][28] - Major competitors include Bosch Rexroth, Yihada, and Guangzhou Zaid, among others [3][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, after policy support, the endogenous driving force of the economy bottomed out and rebounded, with industrial added - value growing more than expected. The full - year economic target was successfully achieved, and in 2026, the economy is expected to have a good start under a series of policy layouts [3][5]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond target range is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 December 2025 Economic Data Highlights - **Industrial Added - Value**: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added - value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous value, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%, 0.05 percentage points higher than the previous value. It exceeded market expectations, in line with the PMI data. Policy support, pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and the recovery of export orders promoted the growth [3]. - **Consumption and Exports**: Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year - on - year in December, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous value, while exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous value, showing a continuous differentiation trend [4]. - **Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year decrease in fixed asset investment was 3.8%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous value. Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year in 2025, and the real estate climate index continued to decline, putting continuous pressure on the investment side [4]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - **Investment Structure**: Investment in high - tech service industries increased by 3.5% year - on - year, accounting for 5.6% of total service industry investment, 0.6 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [5]. - **New Quality Productivity Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added - value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries was 9.4%, the highest since 2022, contributing 26.1% to the growth of all large - scale industries [5]. - **Equipment Manufacturing Industry**: The added - value of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.2% year - on - year in 2025, accounting for 36.8% of the total added - value of large - scale industries, 2.2 percentage points higher than the previous year, and has exceeded 30% for 34 consecutive months [5]. 3.3 Bond Market Views - **Fundamentals**: The falsification of the under - expected economic recovery, combined with possible broad credit and broad fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, will accelerate the cyclical recovery [5]. - **Broad Monetary Policy**: If there is a broad monetary policy (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, bond purchases), it will be a reduction opportunity, similar to 2025 [5]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is rising. Attention should be paid to whether the month - on - month increase of PPI can remain positive [5]. - **Funds Rate**: If the month - on - month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and the yields of short - term bonds will also start to rise [5]. - **Real Estate**: Real estate is not used as a means to stabilize growth this time. Similar to the situation in the United States after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [5]. - **Bonds**: The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [5].

2026 年 01 月 20 日 从专项债投向拆解衡量财政实际力度 宏观研究团队 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 专 题 相关研究报告 《持续加大推进清理拖欠企业账款力 度 —宏观周报》-2026.1.18 《货币宽松预期边际加强—宏观经济 点评》-2026.1.16 《AI 产业需求驱动出口上行—宏观经 济点评》-2026.1.14 2025 年专项债支出结构的变化反映了不同地方财政怎样的施策思路？本文拆分 2025 各省市专项债支出投向变化并分析其内在原因和趋势，最后对 2026 年一季 度财政力度进行展望。 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 2025 年财政对投资的实际支持效果边际减弱，核心在专项债结构调整 专项债总量扩容、结构上受化债、土储等领域扩围影响，对基建支持减弱。2025 年全国新增专项债一共发行 4.59 万亿元，比 2024 年多发行约 5900 亿元，绝对 规模上为近五年最高，但普通项目收益专项债规模不及 2021-2023 年。超长期特 别国债力度略强于 2024 年。从规模和节奏来看，2025 年都较 2024 ...

Economic Performance - Q4 2025 GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate difference narrowed to -0.7%, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3] - The annual GDP growth target of 5.0% was successfully achieved for 2025[3] Income and Consumption - Disposable income growth slightly declined to 5.0% in Q4 2025, with a decrease in operational net income growth[4] - The consumption rate for households fell to 72.7%, marking a historically low level[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed weakness, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% in December 2025[14] - Infrastructure investment dropped significantly, with broad infrastructure down 16.0% year-on-year in December[5] - Real estate investment saw a sharp decline of 17.2% year-on-year, with December's monthly decline reaching 35.8%[5] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales (social zero) fell by 0.3% year-on-year to 3.7%, with a monthly decline of 0.4% to 0.9%[6] - Service retail continued to outperform goods retail, with the gap expanding to 1.5% in December[6] Future Outlook - Economic performance in December showed signs of marginal improvement, with expectations for Q1 2026 GDP growth to improve due to early policy implementations[7] - Risks include potential policy changes and unexpected economic downturns in the U.S.[8]

Group 1: Industry Perspective on Institutional Research - The research indicates an increase in the research heat for the power equipment, computer, and non-ferrous metals sectors, despite a general decline in total research counts across the A-share market [3][12] - In the week of January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total number of institutional research instances across the A-share market was 198, down from 290 in the same week of 2025, indicating a cooling trend in research activity [13][21] - The mechanical equipment, power equipment, electronics, computers, and non-ferrous metals sectors ranked highest in terms of research attention during this period [13][20] Group 2: Individual Stock Perspective on Institutional Research - The stocks of Taihe New Materials, Yunnan Copper, and Boying Special Welding received significant market attention, with Taihe New Materials being researched 6 times in the past week [28][32] - Over the past month, stocks such as Ice Wheel Environment, Boying Special Welding, Taihe New Materials, and others have also garnered considerable research interest, indicating a trend of increasing focus on these companies [33][34] - Taihe New Materials operates in the high-end chemical products sector, with applications in commercial aerospace and computing centers, and has been frequently researched due to its innovative product offerings [4][32]