Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the market's repair process is ongoing despite recent fluctuations, with strong sectors like AI hardware and military industries showing new opportunities [1][9][12] - The current market structure indicates that high-growth sectors outperform small caps, which in turn outperform the Shanghai Composite Index, reflecting external liquidity disturbances and the need for a strategic approach to stabilize profit-making effects [1][11][12] Group 2 - Three main factors affecting the market's repair process are identified: the nearing interest rate hike in Japan, concerns about the limited space for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the weak economic data coupled with a lackluster central economic work conference [2][18][33] - The report suggests that the core drivers of the current bull market remain unchanged, with liquidity still being accommodative and the fundamentals showing moderate recovery, despite external risks impacting the market [13][41] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on sectors that benefit from technology and PPI improvements, with specific attention to commercial aerospace and satellite industries as strong themes for investment [3][50][58] - The report highlights the importance of the domestic consumption market, particularly in lower-tier cities, as a growing contributor to overall retail growth, indicating a structural shift in consumer behavior [52][54]

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government emphasizes a stable and progressive economic work approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for this year[3][10]. - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance through integrated stock and incremental policies[3][10]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is prioritized as a key task for next year, aiming to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides[5][17]. Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Recent policies include the release of the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits and the introduction of antitrust compliance guidelines for internet platforms[13][14]. - The 2026 national energy work conference has set key tasks, emphasizing the transition to green and low-carbon energy sources, with an expected addition of over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity[14]. Real Estate Policy - Shandong Province has introduced guidelines for a "housing old-for-new" program, proposing three models to encourage housing upgrades[15][16]. - The total urban housing demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be around 4.98 billion square meters[16]. Financial Regulation - The central financial committee stresses the importance of effectively managing financial risks related to local small and medium financial institutions and real estate enterprises, while also addressing local government financing platform debts[19][20]. - The merger plan for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities has been announced, marking a significant consolidation in the financial sector[20]. Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, with a voting outcome of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a cautious approach to future rate changes[24]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan has raised its rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat persistent inflation[24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The electronic industry index decreased by 3.02% during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors experiencing declines of 3.26% and 4.12%, respectively [3] - The storage sector showed resilience, with significant gains in major companies such as Micron and SanDisk, indicating a strong performance amidst overall market fluctuations [3][4] - The report highlights the ongoing updates in AI models and the sustained high demand in the storage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for companies involved in AI computing and storage solutions [4][6] Market Review - The U.S. tech sector rebounded after a significant drop, while the A-share electronic sector faced a general decline [3] - Notable performances included Nvidia rising by 3.41%, Tesla by 4.85%, and Micron by 10.28%, while Apple and Google saw slight declines [3] Industry Updates - Multiple significant AI model updates were released, with companies like Xiaomi and Google launching advanced models that enhance performance and efficiency [4] - Apple is collaborating with Broadcom to develop an AI inference chip, expected to enter mass production in 2026 [5] Storage Sector Insights - Storage prices are continuing to rise, impacting downstream terminal pricing, with Dell planning to increase commercial PC prices by 10% to 30% [6] - Micron's FY26Q1 revenue reached $13.64 billion, a year-over-year increase of 57%, with guidance for FY26Q2 revenue also exceeding market expectations [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors such as storage and AI computing, as well as the end-side AI sector, which is expected to maintain strong demand [7] - Beneficiary companies include North Huachuang, Tuojing Technology, and others involved in the AI and storage sectors [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance sector has seen a 15.7% increase since December 5, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.5% [4] - The release of the asset-liability management measures for insurance companies is expected to enhance regulatory oversight and impact asset allocation and insurance operations, particularly for small and medium-sized insurers [5] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to benefit from a positive regulatory environment, with potential growth in investment banking, public funds, and overseas business, supporting profitability in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The new asset-liability management measures aim to strengthen the linkage between assets and liabilities, with implementation starting on July 1, 2026 [5] - Key management goals include matching duration structures, cost-benefit alignment, and liquidity matching [5] - The transition to dividend insurance is expected to deepen, with a favorable settlement yield compared to traditional insurance, driven by increased demand for savings products [5] - Long-term interest rates stabilizing and a positive equity market outlook are expected to improve net assets and profitability for insurers [5] Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume for stock funds is 2.2 trillion, reflecting a 7.2% decrease [6] - The resumption of trading for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has led to a rise in stock prices, with expectations of increased leverage and business synergy [6] - The brokerage sector remains undervalued, with strategic opportunities for investment in firms with strong overseas and institutional business advantages [6] - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC, among others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The biopharmaceutical investment and financing environment has shown significant recovery since the second half of 2025, with a total financing amount of USD 30.32 billion from July to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.90% [4] - The number of new drug IND applications stabilized in 2025, with approximately 1,897 applications from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7.91% [4] - The demand for CRO services has shown a clear turning point, and the report continues to recommend opportunities in the innovative drug industry chain (CXO + research services) for 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.14% in the third week of December 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [7][14] - The offline pharmacy sector saw the highest increase, rising by 5.59%, while the chemical preparation sector had the largest decline at 2.1% [18][22] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the strong performance of leading CXO and research service companies, with many exceeding earnings expectations. Companies like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed have raised their earnings guidance for 2025 [5] - The report recommends a valuation switch opportunity for leading CXO and research service companies, given the continuous improvement in demand [5] Clinical Research Organizations (CRO) - There has been a notable improvement in orders for preclinical and clinical CROs, with expectations for significant improvements in financial statements for 2026 [6] - The report anticipates that the market demand will continue to focus on leading companies as the capacity of clinical CROs is expected to be streamlined [6] Monthly and Weekly Recommendations - The report recommends a monthly investment portfolio including companies such as Sanofi, Innovent Biologics, and others, focusing on innovative drug opportunities and valuation switch [8]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Minute Capital Flow Segmentation Residual Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on the "Factor Segmentation Theory," the minute-level capital flow is segmented using specific indicators (price, return, and amplitude) to extract residual factors with differentiated information[13][14][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Segmentation indicators include minute price, minute return, and minute amplitude - Segmentation objects are the net inflow of large and small orders over the past 20 days - For price segmentation, the high-price (head) and low-price (tail) segments are compared, with the 50% segmentation ratio showing optimal performance - For return segmentation, the high-return segment is selected - For amplitude segmentation, the high-amplitude segment is selected - The residual factors are constructed by reprocessing the segmented variables[13][14][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The amplitude segmentation residual factor outperforms the price and return segmentation factors, showing the best performance in stock selection[27] 2. Factor Name: Minute Capital Flow Time Period Residual Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Different types of investors exhibit distinct preferences for intraday trading periods, and the capital flow information in specific periods contains unique signals[30][31][36] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Intraday trading periods are divided into the first hour, second hour, third hour, fourth hour, first half-hour, and hourly intervals - The capital flow information of specific periods over the past 20 days is extracted - Residual factors are constructed for large and small orders in each period - The first half-hour period is selected as the optimal time period for constructing the residual factor due to its superior stock selection performance[30][31][36] - **Factor Evaluation**: The first half-hour residual factor demonstrates robust stock selection performance, with a stable long-short curve since 2021[34][36] 3. Factor Name: Minute Capital Flow Scenario Residual Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Market scenarios are divided based on specific indicators (e.g., 5-minute return), and the capital flow information under similar scenarios is used to construct residual factors[42][43][45] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Market scenarios are defined using indicators such as amplitude, 1-minute return, 5-minute return, and signed transaction volume - The top 50% of trading minutes based on the selected scenario indicator are identified - The corresponding capital flow information for individual stocks is extracted - Residual factors are constructed for large and small orders under the selected scenario - The 5-minute return indicator is chosen as the optimal scenario for constructing the residual factor due to its ability to effectively capture market trends[42][43][45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The 5-minute return scenario residual factor shows the best stock selection performance among all scenario-based factors, with stable performance since 2021[45] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Minute Capital Flow Segmentation Residual Factor - **Large Order (Amplitude)**: IC mean = 0.041, RankIC mean = 0.045, ICIR = 3.23, RankICIR = 3.34, Annualized Long-Short Return = 15.9%, IR = 3.39[27][30] - **Small Order (Amplitude)**: IC mean = -0.047, RankIC mean = -0.054, ICIR = -2.96, RankICIR = -3.32, Annualized Long-Short Return = 17.7%, IR = 3.02[27][30] 2. Minute Capital Flow Time Period Residual Factor - **Large Order (First Half-Hour)**: IC mean = 0.043, RankIC mean = 0.049, ICIR = 3.41, RankICIR = 3.47, Annualized Long-Short Return = 16.8%, IR = 3.64[36][42] - **Small Order (First Half-Hour)**: IC mean = -0.061, RankIC mean = -0.07, ICIR = -3.47, RankICIR = -3.82, Annualized Long-Short Return = 23.3%, IR = 3.65[36][42] 3. Minute Capital Flow Scenario Residual Factor - **Large Order (5-Minute Return)**: IC mean = 0.037, RankIC mean = 0.04, ICIR = 3.88, RankICIR = 3.86, Annualized Long-Short Return = 14.1%, IR = 4.04[45][50] - **Small Order (5-Minute Return)**: IC mean = -0.054, RankIC mean = -0.059, ICIR = -3.99, RankICIR = -4.15, Annualized Long-Short Return = 21.2%, IR = 4.22[45][50] 4. Scenario Residual Factor Performance in Different Index Samples - **Large Order (CSI 300)**: IC mean = 0.027, RankIC mean = 0.028, ICIR = 1.45, RankICIR = 1.53, Annualized Long-Short Return = 6.7%, IR = 1.14[55][60] - **Large Order (CSI 500)**: IC mean = 0.034, RankIC mean = 0.037, ICIR = 2.16, RankICIR = 2.45, Annualized Long-Short Return = 9.4%, IR = 1.83[55][60] - **Small Order (CSI 300)**: IC mean = -0.04, RankIC mean = -0.039, ICIR = -1.68, RankICIR = -1.59, Annualized Long-Short Return = 11.1%, IR = 1.63[55][60] - **Small Order (CSI 500)**: IC mean = -0.048, RankIC mean = -0.049, ICIR = -2.77, RankICIR = -2.77, Annualized Long-Short Return = 15.1%, IR = 2.48[55][60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic demand policies empower consumption, and the liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period. The food and beverage index increased by 1.0% from December 15 to December 19, ranking 11th among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.3 percentage points. Sub-industries such as baked goods (+8.0%), snacks (+7.5%), and pre-processed foods (+5.6%) performed relatively well. The recent emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy provides clear policy guidance and support for the consumption and food and beverage industries. The current consumption sector is entering a strategic opportunity period with intensive policy support, and the food and beverage industry, as a core sector of essential consumption, is expected to benefit directly from the domestic demand boost. Health, quality, and cost pressure alleviation are core trends, with leading companies showing resilient profitability. The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with strong brand power and multi-price range layouts expected to see valuation recovery. Dairy products and beer are also expected to experience a bottom reversal due to policy relief and low base effects. The current consumption sector shows bottom characteristics, with policy dividends and fundamental recovery resonating, presenting configuration value [3][10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - Domestic demand policies empower consumption, and the liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period. The food and beverage index increased by 1.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.3 percentage points. The sub-industries of baked goods, snacks, and pre-processed foods performed well [10][12]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 1.0%, ranking 11th among 28 industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.3 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Huanlejia, Zhuangyuan Pasture, and Huangshi Group, while ST Xifa, Richen Shares, and Jinzi Ham saw declines [12][14]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have declined. For instance, the price of whole milk powder fell by 18.7% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term [17][21]. Liquor Industry Data - The international market for Wuliangye has shown strong growth in 2025, with the company focusing on global expansion and local operations. The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with demand decline driving price reductions. Companies are shifting from scale expansion to stock competition, realigning market shares based on actual consumer demand [45][46]. Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures. Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty, while Ximai Food is experiencing stable growth in its main business [4][50].

Group 1 - The report highlights the performance of the North Exchange in 2025, indicating a significant rise in the North Index 50 to around 1400 points, with three distinct phases of market movement: rapid increase, oscillating rise, and a correction phase [2][12][15] - In the rapid increase phase (January 1 - March 11, 2025), the North Index 50 surged from 1,037.81 to 1,418.65 points, achieving a cumulative return of 36.70%, while the specialized index rose from 1,683.33 to 2,421.50 points, with a return of 43.85% [15][16] - The oscillating rise phase (April 7 - September 5, 2025) saw the North Index 50 increase from 1,044.07 to 1,647.01 points, yielding a cumulative return of 58.70%, and the specialized index from 1,759.64 to 2,806.39 points, with a return of 66.72% [16][17] Group 2 - The correction phase (September 15 - December 19, 2025) stabilized the North Index 50 and specialized index around 1400 and 2400 points, respectively, with the North Index 50 declining to 1,445.84 points and the specialized index to 2,440.21 points, resulting in cumulative returns of 39.32% and 44.96% [17][23] - The report emphasizes the performance of small-cap stocks, indicating that companies with market capitalizations of 0-20 billion, 20-40 billion, 40-80 billion, and above 80 billion had average returns of 54.08%, 38.60%, 18.26%, and 30.59%, respectively [26][31] - The report identifies that national and provincial-level "little giant" companies outperformed non-little giant firms, with average returns of 48.26%, 38.06%, and 39.19% for national, provincial, and non-little giants, respectively [27][29] Group 3 - The report highlights that national and provincial-level single champion companies achieved average returns of 59.27% compared to 39.61% for non-single champion companies [32][34] - In terms of industry performance, high-end equipment and new chemical materials sectors showed higher returns, with average returns of 50.20%, 28.67%, 48.49%, 40.43%, and 43.56% for high-end equipment, information technology, new chemical materials, consumer services, and biomedicine, respectively [34][36] - The report also notes that companies with new productive forces, ESG attributes, high scarcity, and high dividends had average returns of 50.49%, 48.44%, 49.14%, and 57.51%, respectively, indicating a strong performance in these categories [37][43]

Group 1 - The first batch of L3 level autonomous driving vehicle access permits has been approved in China, marking a significant step towards commercial application in the industry. Two models will be tested in designated areas in Beijing and Chongqing, with specific speed capabilities of 50 km/h and 80 km/h respectively [11][12][18]. - There are 31 automotive-related companies listed on the North Exchange, with a total market value of 81.626 billion yuan as of December 19, 2025. Key companies include Aodiwei, Huanxin Technology, and others [18][20]. - Aodiwei has developed a new generation of AKII vehicle-mounted ultrasonic sensors, which have been delivered in bulk to both joint venture and domestic brands. The company reported a revenue of 502 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.31% [25][27]. Group 2 - The five major industries on the North Exchange, including high-end equipment, information technology, chemical new materials, consumer services, and pharmaceutical biology, all experienced average gains in the week of December 15 to December 19, 2025, with consumer services leading at +4.75% [2][33]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the high-end equipment industry rose to 36.9X, while the information technology sector reached 68.6X, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment [2][35]. - The technology sector, comprising 154 companies, saw a median price increase of 1.61% during the same period, with notable performers including Tianli Composite and Huanxin Technology, which rose by 41.42% and 40.59% respectively [3][46]. Group 3 - The median PE ratio for the electronic industry increased to 48.6X, while the automotive sector's median PE ratio rose to 34.2X, reflecting a growing valuation in these sectors [3][63][66]. - Huanxin Technology, a provider of integrated solutions for smart cities, has signed a cooperation agreement with Huawei for comprehensive collaboration in smart connected vehicles and V2X infrastructure [28][30]. - The total market value of companies in the smart city and smart transportation sectors reached 21.592 billion yuan, with eight companies listed in this category [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the leading carbon fiber companies are raising prices, with high-end product demand expected to recover first. Toray announced a price increase of 10%-20% for its TORAYCA™ carbon fiber products starting January 2026, while Jilin Chemical Fiber plans to raise prices by 5,000 RMB and 10,000 RMB per ton for its 12TK and 3K carbon fibers respectively, also effective January 2026 [1][10] - The current carbon fiber market shows a clear differentiation, with general and large tow products facing strong competition, while high-performance products have stabilized in price, with some specifications experiencing tight supply and demand [1][10] - The report highlights that the carbon fiber industry in China is expected to continue expanding, with production capacity projected to reach 135,500 tons by 2024, and a production volume of approximately 59,000 tons, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [16][17] Group 2 - The report notes that the chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange has seen a weekly increase of 2.53%, with the metal new materials segment performing particularly well, rising by 11.31% [3][30] - Jilin Carbon Valley has established itself as a major player in the carbon fiber market, with a full range of products from small to large tow fibers, and has achieved stable large-scale production of high-quality products [2][27] - The report provides insights into the performance of individual stocks within the chemical new materials sector, with notable increases in stock prices for Tianli Composite (+41.42%), Jilin Carbon Valley (+9.17%), and others [34][37] Group 3 - The report includes a detailed analysis of chemical product price trends, highlighting fluctuations in prices for various materials such as MDI, TDI, and natural rubber, with MDI priced at 18,900 RMB per ton and TDI at 14,800 RMB per ton [38] - The carbon fiber demand distribution in China for 2023 shows that the top three application areas are sports and leisure (26.1%), wind power blades (24.6%), and aerospace and military (11.6%) [20][21] - The report emphasizes the strategic investments by companies like Hechang Polymer, which aims to enhance resource integration and business synergy through the introduction of strategic investors [4][66]