Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is facing increasing pressure in the short term, but there are expectations for domestic demand policies to take effect [5] - The company reported a revenue of 895 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan, down 25.95% year-on-year [7] - The company is positioned as a leading retailer in the plastic pipe sector, benefiting from domestic demand policies and high dividend yields, which enhance its defensive attributes [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 6,378 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.27%, and is expected to recover to 6,612 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.51% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,000 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.92% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.53 [6] Market Performance - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 40.45%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak market demand and intensified competition [7] - Financial expenses increased significantly, with a growth of 84.16% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in interest income [7] - Cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, with a net cash flow increase of 260 million yuan year-on-year, attributed to reduced raw material purchases [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from infrastructure investments and an increase in market share in the retail sector, providing a performance safety net [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1,000 million, 1,102 million, and 1,219 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.69, and 0.77 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20, 18, and 16 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for value accumulation [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but profitability is expected to recover with operational improvements [4] - The company reported a revenue of 40.363 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 861 million yuan, up 15.41% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.96%, but reported a net loss of 68 million yuan, a decline of 173.69% year-on-year [5] - The company has initiated a buyback plan, intending to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding 16 yuan per share, with a total buyback amount between 75 million to 150 million yuan [5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.36%, with the express delivery and other businesses contributing 10.946 billion yuan and 537 million yuan respectively [5] - The revenue growth is attributed to strategic adjustments, improved delivery quality, and steady progress in network integration [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 4.0%, down 2.43 percentage points year-on-year, with a net loss of 68 million yuan [5] - The company aims to enhance gross margin through internal integration and upgrading of end-point networks [5] Cost and Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio decreased to 5.0% in 2024, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios showing varied changes [5] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio further declined to 4.7%, with sales expenses slightly increasing due to resource allocation towards business marketing [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 953 million yuan, 1.230 billion yuan, and 1.510 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14.3 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6] - The high-end express delivery market is expected to see continued growth, with ongoing integration with JD Network and new business expansions anticipated to enhance volume and efficiency [6]

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第十二期（20250427） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 城镇宠物消费规模稳步增长，路斯股份是北交所宠物食品产业核心标的。中国宠物 行业构建了一条完整的产业链，涵盖多个环节与领域。从消费结构视角审视 2024 年 的宠物市场，宠物食品市场依旧占据主导地位，以 52.8%的市场份额稳居榜首。在 这一板块中，主粮和营养品的市场占比实现了小幅上扬，而零食的份额则稍有下降。 紧随其后的是宠物医疗市场，占据 28.0%的市场份额。其中，疫苗和体检业务表现 稳定，而药品和诊疗服务的市场份额则出现了小幅下滑。宠物用品市场和宠物服务 市场虽然目前的市场份额相对较低，分别为 12.4%和 6. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the resilience of agriculture, recommending undervalued leading companies in the sector. It highlights the importance of enhancing agricultural production and stabilizing prices for key agricultural products, with a target grain production of 1.4 trillion jin for 2025 [2][4] - The report suggests that the agricultural sector, being fundamental to the nation, presents significant allocation value due to its current low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes. The anticipated rise in agricultural stocks is expected to occur in three phases: emotional stimulation, industrial logic development, and cyclical upturn driving EPS and PE [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Livestock - The latest pig price is 14.78 yuan/kg, with a weight of 128.94 kg for market pigs. The price of 15 kg piglets has dropped to 649 yuan/head, indicating a short-term strong performance but a long-term oversupply situation [5][18] - The total number of breeding sows is 40.39 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The total pig inventory is 41.731 million, up 2.2% year-on-year [18][19] - Investment should shift from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price," focusing on leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [19] 2. Poultry - The price of broiler chickens has rebounded, with chick prices stable at 3.1 yuan/chick. The price of broiler chickens is 7.5 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.58% [20] - The report highlights the concentration of industry profits towards upstream breeding sources, suggesting a focus on companies like Yisheng Livestock and Shennong Development [20] 3. Feed - Fish prices have risen while feed prices have decreased, indicating an improvement in aquaculture profitability. The report anticipates a recovery in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [21][22] - The leading companies are expected to improve their market share and cash flow as they enter a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - Exports of pet food have increased significantly, with a total of 30,000 tons exported in March, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. The revenue from exports reached 9.1 billion yuan [23][24] - The report notes a strong performance in canned pet food, with export volume increasing by 52.6% and revenue by 98% [24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that domestic agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, with a high self-sufficiency rate in grains. It predicts a potential upward trend in agricultural prices due to reduced imports [30] - The USDA's April report maintains previous forecasts for soybean and corn production, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [30] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3787 points, with the Agricultural Index at 2608 points, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.16% [31] - The report highlights the need for policies to support low-income groups and enhance consumption, which could positively impact the agricultural sector [61]

证券研究报告 一季度电力装机跟踪 关注海风及生物柴油机遇 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 17 周周报（20250427） 投资要点： 证券分析师 电力：风光装机首次超过火电，新政下光伏投产提速 风光装机首次超过火电，双碳战略效果显著。国家能源局于 2025 年 4 月 20 日发布 1-3 月全国电力工业 统计数据：截至 3 月底，全国累计发电装机容量 34.3 亿千瓦，同比增长 14.6%。其中，太阳能发电装机 容量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience positive growth factors in 2025, driven by innovation, international expansion, and an aging population [4][5] - The report highlights the significant unmet demand for new drugs in the epilepsy and depression markets, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies like Hainan Haiyao and Warner Pharmaceuticals [3][4] Summary by Sections Epilepsy Market Potential - Approximately 9 million epilepsy patients in China, with about 30% unresponsive to current treatments, indicating a substantial market opportunity [10][11] - The anti-epileptic drug market in China is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan, with significant growth potential for innovative drugs targeting KCNQ channels [4][10][12] Depression Treatment Demand - Depression poses a major public health threat, with a global market for antidepressants expected to reach $17.6 billion by 2030 [39] - The report emphasizes the urgent need for rapid-acting and effective treatments for major depressive disorder with suicidal ideation (MDSI), highlighting the limitations of traditional antidepressants [41][43] Key Companies and Products - Warner Pharmaceuticals' ZG001, a modified version of ketamine, shows promise in treating depression without addiction risks, currently in clinical trials [47] - Johnson & Johnson's Spravato (esketamine) is the only approved treatment for MDSI, with projected sales reaching $3 billion by 2027 [44][45] Industry Trends - The report notes a successful transition from generic to innovative drug development in China, with companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Kelun Pharmaceutical leading the way [5] - The aging population is driving demand for treatments related to chronic diseases, further enhancing the growth prospects for the pharmaceutical sector [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Viewpoints - The overseas technology sector shows strong growth, with Google reporting Q1 2025 revenue of $90.2 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of $34.54 billion, up 46% year-on-year [20] - The capital expenditure for Google in Q1 2025 was $17.2 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year, primarily for server and data center investments to support growth in Google services, Google Cloud, and Google DeepMind [20] - The AI data center demand remains strong, as indicated by Amazon and Nvidia's statements [20] Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong and US technology sectors rebounded during the week of April 21 to April 25, 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 2.0% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 10.9% [11][13] - The top five gainers in the week included WOLFSPEED (+32%), Microchip Technology (+22%), and Tesla (+18%) [13] - The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization increased to $2.99 trillion, up from $2.66 trillion the previous week [22] Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market sentiment is currently neutral, with the Fear and Greed Index at 52 [26] - The core assets in the cryptocurrency market saw a net inflow of $3.063 billion over the week [31] - The price of core cryptocurrency assets rose above $95,000, driven by easing policy uncertainties and potential tariff reductions on China [37] Recent Important Events - Google reported strong Q1 2025 earnings, with significant growth across various segments, including cloud services [20] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a surge in trading volume and investor interest due to favorable news regarding US-China trade relations [37] - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies in the AI and cryptocurrency sectors are scheduled for late April and early May 2025 [21][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the progress of AI companion products and the upcoming cycles of new game products, suggesting a focus on the launch timelines of these games [3][4] - The integration of AI with gaming is highlighted as a potential area for innovation, particularly in mobile internet where user experience and commercialization are currently weaker [4][5] - The report suggests that leading gaming companies exploring AI+gaming paradigms may demonstrate significant effects, potentially leading to a revaluation of related listed companies [4] Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - The release of the 3D AI boyfriend product "EVE" by the company "Natural Selection" is noted, with internal testing set to begin soon [3][4] - The report recommends focusing on the integration of simulation and nurturing games with AI elements, as this could lead to breakthroughs in user engagement and monetization [4] - Key companies to watch include Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World among others [4] AI Application Direction - The report discusses the MCP protocol led by Anthropic, which aims to standardize AI model interactions with various data sources and tools, potentially accelerating the AI agent ecosystem [5] - Companies that embrace new technologies and have advantages in data, users, and application scenarios are recommended for continued observation [5] Smart Hardware and Multi-modal Models - The report indicates a trend towards the combination of smart hardware and multi-modal large models, with major players like ByteDance and Xiaomi increasing their investments [6] - Opportunities in AI-driven upgrades in industries such as toys, education, and home goods are highlighted [6] Card and Trendy Toys - The report notes that the card game company "KAYOU" has submitted an IPO application, with 2024 revenues reported at 10.057 billion yuan and adjusted net profits at 4.466 billion yuan, indicating high sector vitality [8] - Companies involved in card games and trendy toys are recommended for continued focus [8] Marketing Direction - The report mentions that Focus Media plans to acquire 100% of New Trend Media, which will enhance its media resource coverage and competitive capabilities [8] Film Sector - The report highlights the upcoming reduction in the import of American films, with a focus on promoting high-quality domestic films [9] - Companies involved in the production and distribution of key films are recommended for observation [9] Internet Sector - The report notes the active trading in Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on AI and cloud businesses, suggesting that leading companies like Tencent and Alibaba may see a revaluation in the context of AI development [10] Market Review - The report provides a market review indicating that from April 21 to April 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.56%, while the media sector ranked 25th among all industries with a slight decline of 0.11% [10][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The logistics sector is showing resilience with a steady increase in express delivery volumes and revenues, indicating a robust demand environment [5][6][22] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends favoring growth [15] - The shipping sector faces challenges due to ongoing tariff conflicts, but oil tanker demand is projected to rise due to geopolitical factors [15] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations were stable from April 14 to April 20, with rail freight at 75.61 million tons (down 1.66% week-on-week) and express delivery volumes reaching approximately 3.95 billion pieces (up 3.59%) [5] - Shentong Express reported a significant improvement in 2024, with revenues of 47.169 billion yuan (up 15.26%) and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan (up 250.24%) [6] - The overall express delivery market is characterized by strong demand and limited price decline, with major players like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng benefiting from cyclical recovery [15] Aviation - Huaxia Airlines reported a net profit of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 232% increase year-on-year, driven by increased flight operations and passenger volumes [9] - The airline industry is expected to see a rebound in ticket sales, with a long-term positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand [15] Shipping - The shipping sector is experiencing significant operational adjustments due to ongoing US-China tariff conflicts, with a 44% year-on-year decrease in vessel numbers to US ports [11] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.4% to 1305 points, indicating a potential recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [12] - Oil tanker demand is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and limited new ship orders, suggesting a favorable outlook for the oil shipping segment [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and cyclical investment opportunities in response to the current economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [4] - It suggests that the central government's recent policy adjustments indicate a shift towards prioritizing domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a more stable and controllable option compared to external factors [4] - The report anticipates that local government bond policies will accelerate, providing liquidity support for the economy, and predicts a potential early turnaround in cyclical sectors [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 0.2%, while the cement and glass fiber indices experienced declines of 1.0% and increases of 1.8% respectively [8] - Notable stock performances included gains from companies like Jianfeng Group (+14.1%) and losses from companies like Jingang Photovoltaic (-11.7%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 35.7% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio stands at 61.8%, unchanged month-on-month but down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [15] - The cement shipment rate is 47.6%, down 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1421.7 RMB/ton, up 0.7 RMB/ton month-on-month but down 402.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [31] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5.618 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% month-on-month but up 2.4% year-on-year [31] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 4.1 RMB/sqm year-on-year [36] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have increased to 26.85 days, up 3.1% month-on-month and 44.7% year-on-year [36] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 715.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 1750.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [46] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 60.19%, up 1.09 percentage points month-on-month and 11.45 percentage points year-on-year [46] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing efforts in various regions to stabilize the real estate market, including new housing plans in Qingdao and government initiatives in Guangdong [14] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and capital markets, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [14]