证券研究报告 建筑材料 行业定期报告 证券分析师 戴铭余 S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-07 建材 沪深300 2024 年 07 月 28 日弱现实+弱预期，基金重仓比例仍在历史低位 中性（维持） ——建筑材料行业周报（24/7/22-24/7/28） 投资要点： ➢ 数据跟踪：（1）水泥：全国 42.5 水泥平均价为 387.5 元/吨，环比下降 2.5 元/吨， 同比上升 21.3 元/吨。（2）浮法玻璃：全国 5mm 浮法玻璃均价为 1558.5 元/吨， 环比下降 49.6 元/吨，同比下降 481.4 元/吨。（3）光伏玻璃：2.0mm 镀膜均价为 14.7 元/平，环比不变，同比下降 2.8 元/平。3.2mm 镀膜均价 ...

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 相关研究 2024 年 7 月 28 日 能源金属弱势依旧，关注软磁和铜合金材料的主题机会 看好（维持） ——有色金属 能源金属＆新材料周报（24/7/22-24/7/28） 投资要点： 能源金属方面，价格整体呈弱势运行趋势。锂：本周，碳酸锂价格下跌 1.79%至 84850 元/吨，氢氧化锂 价格下跌 2.41%至 79100 元/吨，近期市场偏弱震荡运行。供给端，碳酸锂产量稳步攀升，6 月碳酸锂产 量 64868 吨，环比上升 4%，增速放缓；需求端，补库行情结束，部分下游库存足够满足生产需求，长协 客供稳定下现货成交相对清淡。预计后续价格偏弱震荡运行。建议关注：天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中矿资 源、永兴材料。 钴：本周海外 MB 钴价持平为 11.95 美元/磅， ...

证券研究报告 交通运输设备 首次覆盖报告 证券分析师 孙延 S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 相关研究 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------| | 股价数据： 2024 | 年 07 月 26 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 40.53 | | 年内最高 / 最 低（元） | 24.80/43.66 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1812.68 | 2024 年 07 月 27 日 中国船舶 （600150.SH） 买入（首次覆盖） —— 民船军舰总装龙头，周期初至乘风而起 投资要点： ➢ 军民舰船总装龙头，重组扩张势头强劲。中国船舶前身为成立于 1998 年的沪东 重机，后相继合并相关企业在上海证交所上市。在 2019 年南北船合并资产重组 后，公司由民船制造企业转为军民融合的船舶制造企业，控股江南造船、外高桥 造船 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is recognized for its long-term value as a renewable energy operator, especially after a significant stake increase by a state-owned insurance company [5] - The company is part of the National Energy Group's renewable energy platform, with plans to add 30GW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - The current valuation of the company is at historical lows, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 6.73 billion, 7.44 billion, and 8.09 billion RMB respectively, indicating a positive outlook [6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - A state-owned insurance company increased its stake in the company to 5%, reflecting deep recognition of its value [5] - The company has a strong backing from the National Energy Group, which has committed to injecting significant renewable energy assets [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.73 billion, 7.44 billion, and 8.09 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [6] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 37.64 billion RMB in 2023 to 40.75 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting an 8.27% year-on-year growth [7] Market Context - The renewable energy sector is expected to benefit from national policies supporting long-term investments, aligning with the dual carbon strategy [6] - The company is positioned as a benchmark in the green energy sector, with its performance closely tied to industry developments [6]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Longyuan Power (0916.HK) to "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report highlights the recent increase in shareholding by a state-owned insurance company, which signifies a deep recognition of the company's value and aligns with national dual carbon strategy [4] - Longyuan Power is positioned as a key player in the renewable energy sector, with significant growth plans and backing from the State Energy Group [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in the renewable energy sector, supported by favorable government policies and market conditions [5] Summary by Sections Shareholding and Market Recognition - On July 22, 2024, Ruizhong Life Insurance increased its stake in Longyuan Power by acquiring 5.26 million shares at HKD 7.45 per share, totaling approximately HKD 39.19 million, bringing its total holdings to about 166 million shares, or 5% of the company [4] Growth Plans and Financial Projections - Longyuan Power, as part of the State Energy Group's renewable energy platform, has a plan to add 30GW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a commitment of 21GW from the group [5] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 6.73 billion, RMB 7.44 billion, and RMB 8.09 billion respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [5][6] Industry Context and Policy Support - The report notes that the renewable energy sector is currently facing challenges, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the government's firm commitment to the dual carbon strategy and supportive policies [5] - The report suggests that the influx of long-term capital from insurance companies could significantly impact the stock market, particularly for renewable energy assets [4][5]

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业点评 证券分析师 查浩 S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 S1350524070004 zoupeixuan0l@huayuanstock.com -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 电力 沪深300 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 24 日 加快规划建设新型能源体系 碳市场与电改有望加速 看好(维持) 煤电低碳化改造迎政策支持 ——三中全会文件对电力行业的影响点评 关注掺烧改造及氢能方向 投资要点: ➢ 事件:2024 年 7 月 21 日,《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》 (后简称《决定》)发布,作为指导我国进一步深化改革的纲领性文件,文中对能源、电力行 业亦有多处提及。 ➢ 在第二章"构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制"中提出:推进能源、铁路、电信、水利、公用 事业等行业自然垄断环节独立运营和竞争性环节市场化改革。此政策为电改 5 号文"厂网分开、 主辅分离、输 ...

证券研究报告|行业专题 日期: 2024/7/24 继续看好四水两核 期待绿电否极泰来 ----2024年公用事业行业中期策略 华源证券公用事业研究团队: 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 查浩 S1350524060004 邹佩轩 S1350524070004 邓思平 S1350524070003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 主要内容 1. 水核:低协方差资产标杆 关注信用利差与风险偏好 2. 绿电:消纳压力客观存在 机制理顺预期下具备赔率 3. 国企改革:三年行动过半 关注资产整合机会 4. 火电:业绩修复基本完成 稳定性成为估值关键 附表:重点公司估值表 1.1 水核行情的底层逻辑:权益资产大分化与稳定价值类资产重估 ◼ 水电核电股价上涨的本质是低协方差资产重估,DCF模型下折现率下降提升估值;来水改善起到一定的催化剂作用 • 从2023年下半年开始,"四水两核"等稳定价值类资产股价与宽基指数走势急剧分化,2024年上半年超额收益进一步扩大 • 从相对估值来看,无论PE还是PB,"四水两核"估值均持续创历史新高,完全突破了原有的估值框架。股价上涨的本质是宏观经济 波动性预期加大以及市场风险偏好较弱 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 邹佩轩 S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现: -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 光大环境 恒生中国企业指数 2024 年 07 月 23 日 光大环境(0257.HK) 买入(维持) ——自由现金流有望迎来转正,建议关注低协方差行情扩散 下的固废投资机会 投资要点: 证券分析师 查浩 S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com ➢ 事件:公司近期股价波动较大。 ➢ 在建项目持续减少,垃圾发电行业进入存量运营期,公司 2023 年运营服务收入占比超过 50%。随着过 去 20 年以光大环境为首的垃圾发电集团持续扩张产能,我国大中城市的垃圾焚烧能力趋近饱和,大型优 质新建项目持续减少,根据北极星固废网统计,2024 年上半年垃圾焚烧发电特许经营累计开标 10 个, 与 2023 年同期开标 27 个项目相比,数量下滑 63%,建设规模下滑 77%。十四 ...

证券研究报告 海外科技 行业定期报告 2024 年 07 月 22 日 台积电 24Q2 业绩超预期,加密核心资产价格大幅走高 ——海外科技周报(24/07/15-24/07/19) 投资要点: 证券分析师 郑嘉伟 ➢ 海外 AI:本周 7 月 18 日台积电发布 2Q24 业绩,业绩超预期。2Q24 公司实现营收 208.2 亿美元 (yoy+32.8%,qoq+10.3%),超出公司之前指引上限,客户对 AI 和高端智能手机相关需求强劲,导 致公司 3nm 和 5nm 技术的强劲需求。公司实现毛利率 53.2%,同比下降 0.9pct,环比增长 0.1pct,超 过指引上限 0.2pct,环比改善主要是因为其成本改善和更有利的外汇汇率。公司认为 AI 需求依旧强劲, 公司不确定 CoWoS 供应能力能否在 2025 或者 2026 年满足需求,目前供应依旧紧张,2025 年 CoWoS 产能可能继续翻倍。端侧 AI 方面(AI PC 和 AI 手机),公司目前没有看到强劲增长,公司认为这一增长可 能在未来几年出现。 ➢ 板块行情回顾:本周(2024/7/15 至 2024/7/19)科技股回调。本周恒生科 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company is planning to issue shares and pay cash to acquire assets totaling approximately 18GW, primarily consisting of thermal power plants, which will significantly enhance its operational capacity [3] - The acquisition will diversify the company's operational regions, with a notable increase in the share of installed capacity from Jiangsu province, which will become the second-largest operational area for the company [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable profitability in the coal power sector, with expectations for the company's net profits to reach 5.877 billion, 6.890 billion, and 7.382 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [4][6] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire 80% of Huadian Jiangsu Company, 51% of Shanghai Huadian Fuxin Company, and several other subsidiaries, totaling an installed capacity of about 18GW [3] - The assets are primarily located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Shanghai, with significant operational capacity already in place [3] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 1.68 billion yuan for Huadian Jiangsu in 2023, with total equity of 6.15 billion yuan [3] - The company's total installed capacity as of December 2023 is 58.45 million kW, with coal power accounting for 46.89 million kW and gas power for 9.09 million kW [3] Market Outlook - The coal power sector is expected to stabilize in profitability, with the report indicating that the current profit margins have returned to historical reasonable levels [4] - Long-term investment opportunities are anticipated in the transition of coal power business models, particularly with the rapid development of renewable energy in Shandong province [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 5.877 billion, 6.890 billion, and 7.382 billion yuan, respectively, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 13, 11, and 10 times [4][6]