Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates high electricity coal demand due to less rainfall and higher temperatures in summer 2025, leading to a continued reduction in coal inventory [4] - The average temperature in major coastal cities from July 1 to July 5, 2025, was 30.2°C, which is 2.7°C higher year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in electricity consumption [4][30] - The report suggests that the coal supply-demand balance has begun to rebalance, with coal prices at historical lows, and recommends focusing on companies with high long-term contract coal ratios [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Coal Demand and Supply - The report highlights that summer 2025 is expected to see high electricity coal demand due to elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall, particularly in the Yangtze River basin [4][19] - The average temperature for the first half of 2025 was slightly higher than in 2024, with significant increases noted in central and eastern China [8][19] - The report predicts that the reduction in coal inventory will exceed expectations due to weak hydropower output from reduced rainfall [4][30] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy, which have a high proportion of long-term contracts and flexible pricing [4] - It also suggests paying attention to Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining [4] Section 3: Temperature and Rainfall Analysis - The report indicates that the first half of 2025 experienced slightly less rainfall compared to the previous year, with most regions showing normal or reduced precipitation levels [13][19] - The forecast for summer 2025 suggests a significant overlap of high-temperature and low-rainfall areas, particularly in southern China, which may exacerbate drought conditions [19][27] Section 4: Inventory Trends - The report notes that coal inventory at ports has been continuously decreasing, driven by high daily consumption at power plants during the summer peak [4][30] - The report emphasizes that the ongoing high temperatures and increased electricity demand will support the trend of coal inventory reduction [4][30]

Group 1 - The North Exchange's 50 Index increased by 2.73% in June 2025, outperforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board but lagging behind the Growth Enterprise Market [3][6][11] - In the first half of 2025, the North Exchange's 50 Index surged by 39%, significantly outperforming other major indices, while the Specialized and New Index rose by 49% [3][6][11] - The top-performing sectors in June 2025 included oil and petrochemicals, media, and transportation, with notable companies achieving substantial gains [11][15][17] Group 2 - A total of 31 companies saw their stock prices rise by 20% or more in June 2025, with seven companies exceeding 40% growth, primarily in machinery and petrochemical sectors [15][16] - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange A-shares reached 52x as of June 30, 2025, which is 141% of the Growth Enterprise Market's valuation and 91% of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's valuation [21][30] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable long-term growth and unique production capabilities, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, as well as recent hot themes like defense and low-altitude economy [27][30] Group 3 - The trading volume on the North Exchange decreased to 269.90 billion shares in June 2025, with a slight drop in daily trading value to around 304 billion yuan [17][18] - The average daily turnover rate for the North Exchange was 69% in June 2025, down from 77% in May [17][19] - The report indicates that the North Exchange's market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a cautious approach [27][30] Group 4 - The report highlights the upcoming earnings disclosures for 23 companies in mid-August 2025, indicating a focus on companies with expected strong Q2 performance [28][30] - The North Exchange is in a normalization process for new stock issuances, with one company scheduled for IPO review next week [45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural gas industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - Natural gas is recognized as a clean, low-carbon, and flexible fossil energy source, serving as a crucial bridge for energy transition. It is expected to support global energy transformation for an extended period [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shown significant achievements in supply-side development, with infrastructure construction accelerating. By the end of 2024, China's natural gas production is projected to reach 246.451 billion cubic meters, a 28% increase from 2020 [4][14] - The consumption growth rate of natural gas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has slowed compared to the previous five years, but the price mechanism is gradually being rationalized. The apparent consumption of natural gas in China is expected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, an 8% year-on-year increase [4][36] - The report anticipates a continued downward trend in natural gas costs, with stable demand growth expected before 2030. The demand for LNG in the transportation sector is projected to reach 40-55 billion cubic meters by 2030 [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Natural gas is positioned as a transitional energy source to achieve carbon peak goals by 2030, with a target of 15% of total energy consumption by that year [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes energy security, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, with a clear trend of increasing natural gas consumption in provincial plans [8] Supply and Infrastructure - Significant progress has been made in increasing domestic gas production, with a focus on conventional and unconventional gas sources. The total length of natural gas pipelines reached 126,000 kilometers by the end of 2023 [14][25] - By the end of 2024, 31 LNG receiving stations will be operational, with a total receiving capacity exceeding 15 million tons per year [25][26] Consumption Trends - The natural gas consumption structure includes urban gas, industrial fuel, power generation, and chemical use, with urban gas and industrial fuel maintaining stable proportions [36] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on gas prices, with a notable increase in the average import price of LNG in 2022 [4][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream exploration companies like Xin Natural Gas, integrated companies like ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy, and downstream city gas companies such as China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy [4]

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年7月4日 稳定币法案推动行业加速 看好发行平台、支付以及RWA场景 --加密行业专题报告 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：陆韵婷 资格编号：S1350525050002 邮箱：luyuntingn@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350525040002 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点：看好发行平台、支付、RWA应用场景 n 稳定币法案推动合规机构扎堆发行 行业发展加速 Ø 稳定币作为连接传统金融与区块链经济的重要桥梁，已形成以USDT和USDC为代表的双寡头格局。USDT依托灵活监管，在线下支付、跨境 交易及OTC市场展现强大适用性，截至2025年3月，市占率高达62%；而USDC则凭借全额储备、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][9]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a "small giant" in the rail transit signal field, planning to invest in technology and Bear Robot to enter the unmanned vehicle sector. The growth potential is driven by policy support and industry expansion [5][11]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 73 million, 89 million, and 106 million RMB, corresponding to P/E ratios of 31.7, 26.2, and 22.0 respectively [6][9]. - The company aims to leverage its full subsidiary, Huto Intelligent, to invest in technology and Bear Robot, focusing on high-growth areas such as unmanned delivery and intelligent driving [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Performance - As of July 2, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 17.00 RMB, with a total market capitalization of approximately 2,323.90 million RMB [3]. 2. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 249 million RMB in 2023 to 431 million RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of 16.20% [7]. - The net profit is projected to increase from 39 million RMB in 2023 to 106 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24% over three years [8][11]. 3. Industry Overview - The rail transit equipment market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2020 to 2024, with the market size reaching approximately 12,112 billion RMB by 2025 [20][21]. - The unmanned delivery vehicle market reached a scale of 133.4 billion RMB in 2023, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [27][49]. 4. Company Positioning - The company focuses on equipment monitoring systems and lightning protection systems, with a high customer concentration where the top five clients account for about 70% of sales [8][15]. - The company has obtained 19 patents, including 9 invention patents, which support its competitive edge in the market [8][11]. 5. Investment Logic - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing investment in rail infrastructure, with fixed asset investment in railways projected to exceed 800 billion RMB in 2024 [11][21]. - The intelligent driving sector is poised for growth, with the domestic end delivery market already reaching 133.4 billion RMB in 2023, indicating a strong demand for innovative delivery solutions [11][27].

Group 1: Fixed Income - The prediction for June 2025 includes new loans of CNY 2.1 trillion and social financing of CNY 3.8 trillion, with M2 reaching CNY 329.2 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [6][9] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.8%, with the increase primarily driven by net financing from government and corporate bonds [9][10] - The report anticipates a stable M2 growth and a slight recovery in M1 growth, indicating a gradual improvement in economic activity [8][9] Group 2: Cement Industry - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality in the cement industry, aiming for a more orderly exit of outdated capacity [11][12] - The industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in profitability, supported by falling coal prices [12][13] - The report suggests that leading companies are actively collaborating to maintain prices, indicating a strong awareness of avoiding "involution" in the industry [13][14] Group 3: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The central government aims to eliminate "involution" in competition, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation in the agricultural sector [14][16] - Future agricultural development may leverage biotechnology, smart equipment, and low-carbon agriculture to enhance productivity and sustainability [14][16] - The report highlights the importance of companies that balance technological advancement with farmer interests, suggesting that firms like Dekang could lead in this transition [16][17] Group 4: Yada Co., Ltd. - Yada Co., Ltd. specializes in smart power measurement and control products, with a significant revenue increase of 24.11% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [22][23] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the new infrastructure and energy-saving sectors, with a focus on digital products [22][23] - Yada's products are widely used in critical infrastructure projects, indicating strong market demand and potential for future growth [22][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (首次) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing low-price and disorderly competition in the cement industry, as highlighted in the Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 [5] - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" in the industry, focusing on aligning actual production capacity with registered capacity [5] - The report notes that while peak-shifting production has helped balance supply and demand, it has limitations, especially when demand declines rapidly [5] - The implementation of policies to address overcapacity is expected to accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacity, potentially reducing actual clinker capacity from over 2.1 billion tons to 1.7 billion tons [5] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve marginally, leading to a recovery in profitability, supported by lower coal prices and a slowdown in demand decline [5] - The report suggests that the industry's anti-involution awareness is strong, with leading companies collaborating to maintain prices, indicating a favorable outlook for profitability [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent emphasis on regulating low-price competition and enhancing product quality in the cement industry [5] - It highlights the need for companies to verify discrepancies between registered and actual production capacities [5] Market Dynamics - Peak-shifting production has been effective but faces challenges in maintaining discipline among smaller firms [5] - The report anticipates that strict enforcement of overcapacity policies could lead to significant reductions in actual production capacity [5] Profitability Outlook - The overall profitability of the industry is projected to be better than in 2015, with current trends indicating a recovery in profitability due to favorable coal prices [5] - The report suggests that the combination of capacity reduction and potential mergers will support profitability in the long term [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shifeng Cement, given the positive outlook for the industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company specializes in smart power measurement and control products, with a focus on digital products that meet the new demands of new infrastructure and renewable energy sectors [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 47.35% year-on-year [5]. - The company has established strong partnerships with well-known domestic and international enterprises, enhancing its market position [5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 320 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.76% [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.11% [5]. - The gross margin for power measurement and control products was 33.01% in 2024 [5]. Market Potential - The power monitoring industry is expected to experience significant growth due to the rapid development of new infrastructure and energy-saving sectors [5]. - The total electricity consumption in 2024 is projected to be 98,521 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [5]. - The company has entered the renewable energy sector by establishing a subsidiary focused on investment and operation of solar storage charging stations [5]. Product Development - The company has developed a series of products to meet the digitalization needs, with projects expected to reach operational status by 2026 [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 112 patents, including 25 invention patents [5][6]. - The company aims to enhance its product offerings in response to the increasing demand for smart power monitoring solutions [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 371 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.97% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 32 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 26.20% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.20 yuan [8].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report on the industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for June 2025 include 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans, 3.8 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 329.2 trillion yuan with a YoY growth of 7.9%, M1 (new caliber) YoY growth of 2.5%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - New loans in June may be close to the same period last year. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. The growth of individual short - term loans is expected to be 150 billion yuan, and individual medium - and long - term loans 350 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans are expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans by 950 billion yuan, and bill financing by 100 billion yuan [3] - The growth rate of the new - caliber M1 is expected to rebound in June, while the M2 growth rate remains stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 2.5%, and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month [3] - Social financing in June may increase year - on - year. The social financing increment in June is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from government bonds and net corporate bond financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, new loans (social financing caliber) are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of about 8.3% [3] - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the third quarter. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - Based on past credit release rules and industry observations, it is predicted that new loans in June 2025 will be 2.1 trillion yuan. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. Due to weak credit demand, new loans in July may be low [2][3] Forecast of M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber. It is expected that the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June will be 2.5% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month, indicating a slow improvement in economic activity [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in June 2025 is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.3 trillion yuan in June 2024. The increase mainly comes from government bonds and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the growth rate may rise first and then fall [3] Bond Market Outlook - In the third quarter, interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%, as well as urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. The perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and opportunities in insurance sub - debt are worth attention. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involutionary" competition in the agricultural sector, suggesting that high-quality, low-cost leading companies may benefit from this shift [3] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and the integration of agricultural resources to create a sustainable ecosystem that empowers farmers and drives continuous innovation [6][7] - The report anticipates that the pig farming market, valued at trillions, will see opportunities for technology-driven enterprises that can navigate the challenges of the industry [6] Summary by Sections Production Capacity - As of May, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on stabilizing pig prices and controlling production capacity among leading enterprises [5] Market Performance - The price of live pigs reached a new high of 15.08 yuan/kg on July 1, attributed to a reduction in supply and the release of previous weight reduction pressures [7] - The white-feathered chicken market is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," but overall industry growth is expected to continue [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the seed industry, particularly those with advanced research capabilities, are likely to see sustained performance growth [11] - The pet economy is highlighted as having strong consumer resilience and significant growth potential, with a favorable market structure [10] Industry Trends - The report notes that the agricultural industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes biotechnology, smart equipment, and low-carbon agriculture as key areas for future development [7] - The feed industry is characterized as a service-oriented sector with opportunities and risks, requiring companies to balance scale and flexibility [9]