Financing and Industry Development - Lingxin Qiaoshou and Landot Touch have both completed financing exceeding 100 million RMB, indicating strong investor interest in the humanoid robot sector[3] - The Chinese government plans to establish a comprehensive entry and exit mechanism for the embodied intelligence industry to promote healthy and standardized development[3] Market Trends and Projections - The market for six-dimensional force sensors in humanoid robots is expected to exceed 460,000 units by 2030, with a projected market size of over 1.8 billion RMB[3][36] - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the automotive industry has increased by 1.34% to 29.5X, while the median P/E for the electronic equipment sector has decreased from 55.4X to 54.5X[3] Stock Performance - The median stock price change for technology growth stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange was -0.22% from December 1 to December 5, 2025, with 67 companies (44%) experiencing an increase[3] - Notable stock performers included Haosheng Electronics (+13.95%), Youji Co. (+13.56%), and Xingtou Measurement Control (+13.28%) during the same period[3] Company Developments - Key companies in the humanoid robot supply chain include Kaiter Co., which is developing electronic mechanical brake sensors and six-dimensional force sensors, and Dingzhi Technology, which is focusing on precision gearboxes and motors[3][39] - Rongyi Precision plans to invest 100 million RMB in a project for precision components in server liquid cooling systems, indicating a strategic move towards high-tech applications[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market [2][4][67][68] 2. Report's Core View - Economic downward pressure may rise, and there is a high possibility of a future policy interest rate cut. The CPI rebounded to positive territory year-on-year in October, and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed. However, the economic growth pressure remains high, with significant declines in the year-on-year growth rates of investment and consumption. Since 2018, the probability of making profits in the bond market in December has been high. The report continues to clearly be bullish on the bond market [2][67] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - On December 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted a 100 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days), and another 6 - month - term operation is expected within the month [4][10] - The central bank governor stated in an article that the central bank aims to maintain currency value stability and financial stability. The monetary policy system and the macro - prudential management system are two fundamental tools for macro - management [4][14] - In December 2025, the Bank of Japan signaled a clear interest rate hike, with an 85% probability of raising the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its monthly monetary policy meeting [4][14] 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 30, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 19.3% year - on - year. As of December 5, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days increased by 290.7% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [9][15][20] 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 30, the container throughput of ports increased by 16.8% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the postal express delivery volume increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the railway freight volume increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of December 5, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.6% year - on - year [9][23][26] 3.2.3 Operating Rates - As of December 3, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 4, the average operating rate of asphalt decreased by 2.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 5, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 74.1% [9][28][30] 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of December 5, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 29.9% year - on - year. As of November 28, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 24.2% year - on - year [9][33][36] 3.2.5 Prices - As of December 5, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.2% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 17.7% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 3.8% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 0.7% year - on - year and increased by 4.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 13.9% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 5.4% year - on - year and increased by 2.5% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of iron ore increased by 0.1% year - on - year and 1.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of glass decreased by 15.3% year - on - year and 1.2% compared with 4 weeks ago [9][40][44] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On December 5, overnight Shibor decreased by 0.60 BP compared with December 1; R001 increased by 0.06 BP, R007 increased by 0.32 BP; DR001 decreased by 0.59 BP, DR007 decreased by 2.00 BP; IBO001 decreased by 0.53 BP, IBO007 decreased by 4.80 BP. Most government bond yields increased. On December 5, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.85%, and 2.26% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by - 0.1 BP, + 1.6 BP, + 0.6 BP, and + 7.3 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.63%, 1.84%, 2.01%, and 2.40% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 0.8 BP, 3.2 BP, 3.5 BP, and 7.2 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%, 1.79%, and 2.06% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 2.8 BP, 4.7 BP, and 3.5 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.61%, 1.66%, 1.63%, and 1.69% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by + 16.0 BP, + 1.0 BP, + 16.0 BP, and remained unchanged respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.14%, 1.95%, 4.48%, and 2.86% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 12 BP, 14 BP, 1 BP, and 9 BP respectively. On December 5, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.07, compared with November 28, they decreased by 40 and 88 pips respectively [50][53][60] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is clearly bullish on the bond market. Banks' self - operations focus on government bonds within 10 years, insurance companies' asset allocation and trading desks focus on 30 - year bonds, bond funds focus on 5 - year capital bonds, and bank wealth management products focus on credit bonds below 3 years. From the domestic fundamental perspective, domestic economic data is under pressure, housing prices have further declined, and the current short - term interest rate is too high, so the necessity of a policy interest rate cut has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Fed has started an interest rate cut cycle and may cut interest rates by another 25 BP within the year. Currently, long - term bond yields have reached the highest point of the year, and the probability of making profits is high under the dual influence of domestic and external factors [4][67][68]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is showing resilience in demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, which enhances corporate profitability. Long-term competition in the e-commerce express delivery market is expected to improve [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing VLCC freight rate elasticity [13] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green upgrade cycle, with shipping market recovery and green upgrade progress being key demand drivers [13] - The aviation sector is anticipated to see Q3 performance as a signal for long-term market trends, with stable demand growth and tightening supply [13] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The current e-commerce express delivery industry shows strong demand, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction [13] - Notable companies to watch include YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and SF Holdings, each with unique competitive advantages and growth potential [13] Shipping - The VLCC market remains strong, with TCE rates reported at $122,000/day, a significant increase of 151.4% since late August [7] - The BDI index reached a new high of 2845 points, driven by strong demand from Australian miners [7] - The West African oil transportation market is expected to see increased activity due to OPEC+ production adjustments [13] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport increased by 13.3% [57] - Major airlines are expected to benefit from stable demand and improved cost structures [13] Port Operations - China's port cargo throughput increased by 8.43% week-on-week, while container throughput saw a slight decline of 0.27% [72] - The port sector is viewed as a stable infrastructure with strong cash flow, making it an attractive investment opportunity [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 0.74% and highway truck traffic decreasing by 0.24% [12] - The road and rail sectors are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure investments [12]

Group 1: North Exchange Market Overview - In 2025, the North Exchange market achieved significant breakthroughs, with total market value exceeding 820 billion, number of accounts reaching 9.5 million, and average daily trading volume approaching 30 billion, indicating a qualitative leap in liquidity [6][8]. - The market's focus on "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" characteristics is evident, with national-level "little giant" companies accounting for 61%, fostering a matrix of high-growth and scarce enterprises in sectors like new energy, robotics, and AI [6][8]. - The average net profit of newly listed companies in 2024 increased from 30 million to 110 million, reflecting continuous improvement in enterprise quality [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy for 2026 - The North Exchange will deepen its layout around "scarcity" and "new productive forces" as it enters the 15th Five-Year Plan, with policies expected to continue promoting innovation in fund products and optimizing the IPO mechanism [8][9]. - The average first-day IPO gain in the first 11 months of 2025 was 356%, with average subscription funds exceeding 640 billion, indicating a vibrant IPO market expected to continue into 2026 [8]. - Public fund holdings reached 22.4 billion in the first half of 2025, with a clear trend of dual-driven growth from active and passive funds, and the introduction of new ETF products is anticipated to inject significant capital [8][9]. Group 3: Metal New Materials Sector - Copper prices have risen significantly, with weekly increases of 5.74% in London copper and 6.12% in Shanghai copper, driven by macroeconomic factors and a substantial reduction in domestic copper inventories [12][13]. - The supply-demand balance for copper is shifting from tight equilibrium to potential shortages due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [12]. - Aluminum prices are also on the rise, with a 3.28% increase in Shanghai aluminum, supported by stable demand and limited supply growth [13]. Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical index fell by 0.74%, but the sector is expected to see a wave of valuation recovery in the first half of 2026 due to numerous innovation drug catalysts [18][21]. - ZG006 from Zai Lab shows promising clinical data for treating refractory small cell lung cancer, with response rates of 60% and 66.7% in different dosage groups, indicating a significant market potential [20][21]. - Recommended stocks in the pharmaceutical sector include Xinyi Tai, Zai Lab, and Heng Rui Medicine, focusing on companies with clear performance trends and potential for operational reversals in 2026 [23].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the consumer service sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a median stock price change of -1.83% for the week ending December 5, 2025 [2][36]. Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the consumer sector is expected to create new growth opportunities. The government has issued policies to promote AI applications across various consumer goods, aiming to enhance service consumption and foster new product consumption models [3][6][10]. - The consumer market is transitioning from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, driven by AI innovations that enhance user experience and operational efficiency [7][10]. - The report highlights significant growth in AI-related consumer products, such as smart wearables, AI toys, and AI applications in retail and e-commerce, indicating a robust market potential [17][22][30][34]. Summary by Sections 1. AI and Consumer Integration - AI is expected to drive innovation in consumer scenarios and business models, creating a virtuous cycle of consumption-driven economic growth [3][7]. - The government has outlined key actions to integrate AI into consumer services, including the development of smart home devices and AI-driven entertainment products [6][10]. 2. Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, 27% of consumer service companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange saw stock price increases, with a median market capitalization change of -1.83% [36][38]. - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for consumer service companies decreased from 46.4X to 45.2X, while total market capitalization rose from 1093.85 billion to 1096.29 billion [39][40]. 3. Industry Valuation - The median TTM P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector increased by 0.75% to 50.0X, indicating a slight upward trend in valuations [45][48]. - The P/E ratio for the food and agriculture sector decreased from 51.4X to 50.5X, while the professional services sector saw a minor decline from 26.3X to 26.2X [46][49]. 4. Company Announcements - Tianfangbiao has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in the digital economy industrial park in Quanzhou, Fujian, to enhance its operational capabilities and market competitiveness [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the yield of credit bonds continued the adjustment trend of last week, with a slight upward adjustment from a low level. For example, the 3Y and 10Y yields of AA+ medium and short-term notes adjusted by 2BP and 5BP respectively within the week. From January to November 2025, there was a divergence in performance among different credit varieties and different terms. The short - end spread compression was generally greater than the long - end, and the spread compression of urban investment bonds and medium and short - term notes was generally better than that of secondary perpetual bonds. There is still strong logical support for going long on credit bonds around 3Y. The 3 - 5Y urban investment bond sinking strategy may still be the preferred strategy for credit bonds in the next stage [4][45]. - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and leisure services industries and the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared with last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different terms fluctuated no more than 2BP compared with last week. For industrial bonds, most of the credit spreads widened slightly compared with last week, and a small number of terms and ratings of industrial bonds compressed slightly. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds of different terms and ratings widened to varying degrees compared with last week [4][44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - **Debt Risk Prevention and Control Ideas from the "15th Five - Year Plan" Proposals**: "Building a long - term government debt management mechanism" is the consensus among regions, and "activating stock resources and assets" is an important measure. Debt risk management may remain a key focus of local work in the future, and local asset activation may be the focus of the next stage [9]. - **Wu Qing's Speech**: On December 5th, Wu Qing, the chairman of the CSRC, proposed to improve the multi - level bond market system and vigorously develop science and technology innovation bonds and green bonds [11]. - **Optimization of Merger and Acquisition Notes**: On December 2nd, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to optimize the relevant working mechanism of merger and acquisition notes, which is conducive to guiding funds to accurately support enterprise mergers and acquisitions and improving the quality and efficiency of the inter - bank bond market in serving the real economy [12]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 179.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 115.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 22.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2 billion yuan compared with last week. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased compared with last week [14]. - **Issuance Cost**: This week, the issuance interest rates of AA industrial bonds and financial bonds increased significantly compared with last week, while the issuance interest rates of other different ratings and bond types fluctuated no more than 20BP [16]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 56.7 billion yuan compared with last week. The turnover rates of most credit bonds decreased compared with last week [22]. - **Yield**: This week, the yield of credit bonds continued the upward trend, with an upward adjustment of 0 - 5BP for credit bonds of different ratings and terms compared with last week [25]. - **Credit Spread**: Overall, the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and leisure services industries and the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared with last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different terms fluctuated no more than 2BP compared with last week. For industrial bonds, most of the credit spreads widened slightly compared with last week, and a small number of terms and ratings of industrial bonds compressed slightly. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds of different terms and ratings widened to varying degrees compared with last week [29][34][38][40]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Negative News This week, the implied rating of "21 Boxing 01" issued by Shandong Boxing Xinda Construction Investment and Development Co., Ltd. was downgraded [43]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan in the open market this week. As of Friday's close, DR001 closed at 1.31%. Overall, the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and leisure services industries and the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared with last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different terms fluctuated no more than 2BP compared with last week. For industrial bonds, most of the credit spreads widened slightly compared with last week, and a small number of terms and ratings of industrial bonds compressed slightly. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds of different terms and ratings widened to varying degrees compared with last week [44]. - There is still strong logical support for going long on credit bonds around 3Y, and the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond sinking strategy may still be the preferred strategy for credit bonds in the next stage [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media internet industry [4] Core Insights - The release of the Doubao mobile assistant by ByteDance is a significant development, showcasing AI capabilities in mobile operations, but it faces restrictions from major apps like WeChat and Alipay [5][7] - The film and television sectors are expected to see growth, with strong performances from imported films like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3," suggesting potential investment opportunities in production and distribution companies [5] - The AI application sector is evolving, with advancements in content generation and production paradigms, indicating a shift in the industry landscape [6][30] - The gaming industry shows promising trends with high DAU products and new game cycles, presenting investment opportunities in leading gaming companies [8] - The rise of group broadcasting is transforming the industry, moving towards systematic growth and platform development [9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector saw a decline of 3.86% from December 1 to December 5, 2025, ranking 31st among all industries [13] - Notable stock performances included Lianjian Optoelectronics (+28.62%) and Bona Film Group (+23.60%), while Rongxin Culture (-15.23%) and BlueFocus (-13.98%) faced significant declines [14][19] AI Applications - The report highlights 15 financing events in the AI sector, indicating strong market interest and investment in AI technologies [30] Film and Television - The total box office for the week was 798 million yuan, with "Zootopia 2" leading at 605.58 million yuan, capturing 75.9% of the market share [39][40] - In television, "Tang Dynasty Ghost Stories" led with 172 million views, followed by "Big Businessman" with 156 million views [41][42] Gaming - "Honor of Kings" maintained its position at the top of the iOS game sales chart, while "Zombie Shooting" led the WeChat mini-game rankings [32][35] - The report notes the increasing popularity of mobile games, with significant user engagement and revenue potential [32][38]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance industry, projecting significant growth in new business value (NBV) and new premium income for life insurance by 2026 [1][4][7] - The report highlights the effective reduction of rigid costs in life insurance, anticipating a turning point in the service margin (CSM) by 2027 [5][30] Group 1: Insurance Channels - The bank insurance channel is expected to see a new premium income growth rate of over 30% in 2026, driven by the reallocation of low-risk funds from bank deposits into insurance products [7][15] - The individual insurance channel's new business value growth is projected to be between 0% and 10% in 2026, influenced by the introduction of "product + service" offerings and differentiated accounts [7][24] - The report notes that the number of new agents in the individual insurance channel has not yet reached a turning point, indicating potential for future growth [24] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The report indicates a downward trend in the rigid liability costs for major life insurance companies, with new policy costs for China Life, Taiping, and Xinhua decreasing by 52, 52, and 94 basis points respectively [7][29] - The CSM balance for life insurance is expected to return to positive growth by 2027, driven by higher NBV growth and stabilization of risk-free interest rates [30][34] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Major insurance companies have increased their equity asset allocations, with China Life, Ping An, Taiping, and PICC raising their equity fund ratios by 1.4, 2.6, 0.5, and 1.7 percentage points respectively [35][40] - The long-term investment pilot program for insurance funds is anticipated to enhance profitability, with significant asset appreciation reported by Xinhua Insurance's fund [35][40] Group 4: Key Companies - China Life is noted for its strong individual insurance team and significant profit elasticity, with a notable increase in NBV growth from 4.8% to 41.8% year-on-year [41][42] - Ping An's bank insurance channel achieved a remarkable 170.9% NBV growth in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by strategic expansion and product offerings [44][45] - China Pacific Insurance is expected to benefit from policy support in both auto and non-auto insurance sectors, with a focus on improving underwriting profits [51][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yijiahe, focusing on the deep integration of brain-computer interface and intelligent robot technology, aiming to expand new applications in intelligent health care, emotional interaction, and health management [6] - The company's main business shows steady growth, with a revenue of 344 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.01% [6] - The company is increasing its R&D investment to support expected performance growth, with a gross margin of 70.05% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6] Financial Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.51% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.17 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.89% [5] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 30.15 in 2025 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new features of local government bonds include scale expansion, longer terms, and declining interest rates. The position of special bonds in local government bonds is becoming increasingly prominent. The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota, and the issuance rhythm is evolving towards a more balanced distribution. There are three stages of debt resolution: non - government bond replacement, implicit debt resolution, and expansion of the replacement scope. The investor structure of local government bonds is dominated by commercial banks, and the market is relatively concentrated. Currently, there may be room for the spread of local government bonds to compress, and attention should be paid to 3Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds as well as "flying" bonds [2]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. New Features of Local Government Bonds: Scale Expansion, Longer Terms, and Declining Interest Rates - Since 2015, local government bonds have become the only legal borrowing channel for local governments. In 2025 (January - September), the issuance scale was 8.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.85 trillion yuan; the average issuance interest rate was 1.93%, a year - on - year decrease of 44bp; the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years, a year - on - year increase of 2.46 years [7]. - Special bonds are becoming more prominent. From 2015 to 2024, the issuance scale of general bonds was between 1.7 trillion and 3.6 trillion yuan, and its proportion in local government bonds decreased from 74.6% to 21.1%. The issuance scale of special bonds increased from 0.97 trillion yuan to 7.7 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25.84%, and its proportion increased from 25.4% to 78.9% [13]. - The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened, from 10.3 years in 2019 to 15.6 years in 2025 (as of September 30). The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 20 years has increased from 20.12% in 2021 to 31.95% in 2024 [18]. - In 2025 (January - September), the funds of new local government bonds were mainly invested in traditional infrastructure and land development, such as municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, land reserve, etc. [22] 2. Factors Affecting the Issuance Scale and Implementation Effect of Local Government Bonds 2.1 Issuance Scale Constrained by Quotas and Rhythm Evolving towards Balance - The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota. It is estimated that the early - batch quota for 2026 is about 3.12 trillion yuan. The issuance rhythm has shifted from being concentrated in the second and third quarters to a more balanced distribution throughout the year [36]. 2.2 Market Impact of Local Government Bond Supply Regulated by Institutional Demand and Supporting Policies - The impact of local government bond supply on the market is affected by the allocation demand of financial institutions. Commercial banks are the main holders of local government bonds, and their allocation willingness is affected by asset returns, regulatory requirements, market sentiment, and the "asset shortage" situation [39]. - The central bank's supporting liquidity policies can alleviate the impact of supply shocks. When local government bonds are issued on a large scale, the central bank can use policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and medium - term lending facilities to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system [40]. 3. Three Stages of Debt Resolution 3.1 Types of Local Government Bonds for Debt Resolution - There have been three types of local government bonds for debt resolution in history, and two types are still being issued. Replacement bonds (issued from 2015 - 2019) were used to replace non - government bond - form local government stock debts; special refinancing bonds (initially issued in 2020) are used to repay local government stock implicit debts; new local government special bonds have been used for debt resolution since 2024, with 80 billion yuan allocated annually for five consecutive years [43]. 3.2 Three Stages of Debt Resolution - Replacement of non - government bonds (2015 - 2018): Through the issuance of replacement bonds, most of the non - government bond - form debts such as loans and corporate bonds were converted into legal debts, laying the foundation for the local bond management system [46]. - Resolution of implicit debts (since 2017): After the concept of "implicit debt" was proposed in 2017, relevant policies were issued to start the process of implicit debt resolution. Special refinancing bonds have been used to resolve implicit debts, and some regions have achieved zero implicit debts [47]. - Expansion of the replacement scope: The replacement scope of replacement bonds has expanded to areas outside of implicit debts, such as repaying government - owed enterprise accounts and dealing with government - owed payments in PPP contracts [49]. 4. Investor Structure of Local Government Bonds As of the end of August 2025, investors in the inter - bank bond market held 50.77 trillion yuan of local government bonds, accounting for 95.78%. Among them, commercial banks held 37.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 71.08% [52]. 5. Investment Recommendations 5.1 Compression Opportunities for Current Local Government Bond Spreads - The implementation of debt - resolution policies and the improvement of liquidity have increased the possibility of local government bond spread compression. Currently, the spreads of 3Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds are at relatively high historical levels, and there may be room for compression [56][59]. 5.2 Attention to "Flying" Bonds - "Flying" bonds refer to bonds with unexpectedly high issuance interest rates. The spreads of "flying" bonds generally show a narrowing trend after issuance. In 2025 (as of the third quarter), there were 27 local government bonds with a spread of 30BP or more, mostly with a term of 15 years and mainly new special bonds [66][67].