Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 07 | 月 | | 07 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 6.12 | | | | 一 年 内 高 最 低 | 最 | / | | | | 7.43/3.38 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,612.98 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,612.42 | | | | 总股 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the maternal and infant industry, driven by government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth and stimulating market growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The implementation of various supportive policies by the government is expected to boost the maternal and infant industry, with a projected increase in birth rates and consumer spending in this sector [6][9]. - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching approximately 76,299 billion yuan in 2024, with a potential increase to 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [9][11]. - The report highlights the rapid development of the infant food market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a market size of about 55.91 billion yuan in 2024 [25][29]. - The maternal and infant retail chain market is also expanding, with a projected growth from 587.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 906.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 9.1% [32][34]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The Chinese government has introduced various policies to encourage childbirth, including subsidies and tax reductions, which are expected to stabilize and potentially increase the birth rate [6][7]. - The focus on modern parenting and quality of life among younger parents is driving demand for diverse maternal and infant products [6][9]. Market Growth - The maternal and infant consumption market is projected to grow to 76,299 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery in birth rates with 9.54 million births expected [9][11]. - The infant food market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 55.91 billion yuan in 2024 and a CAGR of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024 [25][29]. Industry Segmentation - The report outlines the structure of the maternal and infant industry, which includes upstream food production, midstream manufacturing of products, and downstream retail channels [13][14]. - The dairy industry is also highlighted, with a projected market size of 5,216.70 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in milk production due to market imbalances [16][20]. Company Analysis - The report identifies key companies in the maternal and infant sector listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Knight Dairy and Wuxi Jinghai, along with potential listings such as Southern Dairy and Ying's Holdings [44][45]. - The overall market capitalization of the consumer service sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange has increased, with a median market cap of 123.92 billion yuan [52][54].

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the high-quality development of the marine economy, with the national marine GDP expected to reach 11.18 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in 2024 [4][11][20] - The marine economy's contribution to the national GDP is projected to be 7.8%, with 15 marine industries achieving a total added value of 4.3733 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5% [21][22] - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a key area for development, with significant investments and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing capabilities in underwater observation, construction, and resource extraction [9][30][31] Group 2 - The report identifies 11 companies within the deep-sea economic industry chain listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Audiwei (ultrasonic underwater ranging sensors), Wantong Hydraulic (hydraulic cylinders for offshore drilling platforms), and Klete (ventilation and air treatment systems) [40] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with an expected added value of 112.6 billion yuan in 2025, following a growth of 9.1% to 103.2 billion yuan in 2024 [30][33] - The report highlights the increasing market interest in deep-sea technology, with emerging sectors such as deep-sea energy storage and carbon sequestration expected to drive future growth [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the strong growth in Southeast Asia's e-commerce logistics, particularly benefiting from TikTok Shop's significant GMV growth in Q2 2025, with increases of 93% in Thailand, 145% in Indonesia, 191% in Vietnam, 245% in the Philippines, 211% in Malaysia, and 30% in Singapore [4] - The report notes that the civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with over 21.01 million domestic flight tickets booked in the first month of the summer travel period, indicating a 5.2% increase in flight numbers compared to the previous year [6][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand resilience in the express delivery sector, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - TikTok Shop's Q2 2025 GMV growth indicates a robust demand for Southeast Asian express delivery services, with Jitu's market share reaching 28.6% [4] - Shentong plans to deploy 2,000 unmanned vehicles in 2025 to enhance delivery capabilities [5] - JD Logistics has launched a self-developed VAN unmanned light truck, which can save approximately 60% in costs compared to traditional transport [5] Civil Aviation - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a peak in passenger flow, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and expected price hikes for popular routes [6] - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group to promote the development of general aviation and low-altitude economy [7] - The resumption of aircraft engine exports from the US to China signals a thaw in trade tensions [7] Shipping and Ports - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to regain market share [8] - China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry has been approved, indicating consolidation in the industry [9] - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased by 5.3%, while oil tanker freight rates have also declined [10][11] Road and Rail - The report notes a slight decrease in toll revenue for Shenzhen Expressway in May, while the overall logistics operations remain stable [14] - National railway freight transport has shown a slight increase, indicating steady logistics performance [14] Overall Market Performance - The A-share transportation index decreased by 0.33% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.40% [20] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of various sub-sectors, highlighting the performance of express delivery, aviation, shipping, and logistics [22][25][49][55]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 高票息信用债行情兑现 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/4） 投资要点： 本周（6/30-7/4）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情。主体负面：本周潍坊公信国有资产经营有限公司、联储证券股份有限 公司、登封市建设投资集团有限公司、聊城市安泰城乡投资开发有限责任公司列入 主体观察名单；黑龙江创达集团有限公司主体评级调低。债项负面：中燃投资有限 公司所发行的 10 只银行间债项隐含评级调低；康佳集团股份有限公司所发行的 6 只 公司债隐含评级调低；其他债项负面包括"融茂优 B"隐含评级调低，"H20 方圆 1" 展期，"23 创 01EB"债项评级调低，"23 联储一"列入债项观察名单。转债负面： 双良节能系统股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"双良转债"债项评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 20275 亿元逆回购到期，本周央行累计开展 6522 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 13753 亿 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： "HDAC+IO"潜力值得期待，重视微芯生物 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/6/30-25/7/4） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：6 月 30 日至 7 月 4 日，医药指数上涨 3.64%，相对沪深 300 指数超 额收益为 2.10%。本周，涨幅靠前的主要为创新药标的如塞力医疗、广生堂、神州细胞、热 景生物，核心因素为临床数据更新催化，我们认为 6 月下旬以来创新药板块的调整已到位， 继续看好创新药，关注下半年有 BD 强催化的核心标的。建议关注：1）创新药作为较为确定 的产业趋势，建议关注：A 股）热景生物、华纳药厂、微芯生物、悦康药业、前沿生物、福元 医药、信立泰、一品红、科兴制药、泽璟制药、科伦药业、恒瑞医药；港股）三生制药、中 国生物制药、科伦博泰、康方生物、信达生物、翰森制药；2）25 年业绩或逐季度边 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that antimony prices are under pressure due to demand, while tungsten prices remain high due to supply disruptions [3] - The rare earth market is experiencing price fluctuations, with some magnetic material manufacturers awaiting export approvals [5] - The molybdenum market is facing a contraction in supply alongside weak demand, leading to price adjustments [5] - The tungsten market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices stabilizing at high levels [5] - The tin market is experiencing a shortage of raw materials from Myanmar, resulting in a strong but volatile price trend [5] - Antimony prices are adjusting downward due to reduced smelting output, but long-term prospects remain positive [5] - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is accelerating commercialization, presenting significant opportunities for upstream materials [6][10] Summary by Sections 1. Rare Earths - Recent price changes include an increase of 0.45% for praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 446,000 CNY/ton and a 0.61% increase for dysprosium oxide to 1,640,000 CNY/ton [12][13] - The domestic market is affected by export restrictions and a tightening supply of low-cost ores, while demand remains weak [5] 2. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have decreased by 0.78% to 3,815 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices have fallen by 0.41% to 243,500 CNY/ton [20] - Supply contraction signals are emerging, but demand from downstream industries is weak [5] 3. Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices have increased by 0.58% to 172,000 CNY/ton, while ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 0.40% to 253,000 CNY/ton [23] - The market is experiencing stable domestic demand, but profitability for downstream smelting enterprises is low [5] 4. Tin - SHFE tin prices have risen by 2.57% to 267,250 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices increased by 4.24% to 33,775 USD/ton [33] - The supply side is constrained due to low operating rates in refining enterprises, while demand remains focused on essential purchases [5] 5. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased by 4.94% to 192,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 5.63% to 167,500 CNY/ton [46] - The market is facing tight domestic supply due to reduced smelting output, but long-term demand remains stable [5] 6. Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is witnessing rapid commercialization, with significant opportunities for upstream materials [6][10] - Notable advancements include the achievement of high-temperature plasma operations and agreements for future power supply [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 信用债 ETF 性价比几何？ ——信用债热点事件系列 投资要点： 目前，首批 10 只科创债 ETF 集中获批待上市，科创债 ETF 自身的稀缺性以及市场 对科创债自今年 5 月份主体扩容以来的高度关注，年初以来的信用债 ETF 快速扩容 的行情或有可能在科创债 ETF 上再度演绎，相关成分券的利差压缩空间或可期待。 结构性的机会上，我们建议投资者结合负债端属性以及交易风格，通过适度下沉和 拉长久期等方式提前布局成分券中的科创债，并抢配同为 8 只信用债 ETF 成分券的 非可续期科创债。 风险提示：1）数据来源和数据处理偏误风险：本文数据主要来自于同花顺 ifind 等， 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 1.基准做市信用债 ETF 快速扩容 今年年初以来持续的低利率环境下，信用债相比之下具有较高的板块贝塔，中等期限信 用债具有明显的静态票息优势，市场对信用债 ETF 的关注度明显提升。2025 年初以前，市 场上仅有 3 只信用债 ETF ...