证券研究报告 | 固收点评报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 07 日 降准降息落地，债市利好或出尽 ——5 月 7 日金融监管国新办新闻发布会点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 2：2025 年初以来同业存单利率走势 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 4页 图表 1：2025 年初以来，DR001 及 DR007 利率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 图表 3：各期限国债收益率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会上监管推出一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 联系人 降准降息落地。为落实 4 月下旬政治局会议部署，应对高关税对经济的潜在冲击，5 月 7 日金融监管层在国新办新闻发布会上推出了一揽子金融政策，将助力经济稳增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's copper business has significantly increased, contributing to substantial growth in performance [5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.942 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 53.59% [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.811 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 42.49%, and a net profit of 422 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.1% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 7.399 billion RMB, net profit of 1.031 billion RMB - 2024: Revenue of 9.942 billion RMB, net profit of 1.584 billion RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 12.276 billion RMB, net profit of 2.108 billion RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 13.290 billion RMB, net profit of 2.425 billion RMB - 2027E: Revenue of 13.647 billion RMB, net profit of 2.640 billion RMB [6][8] - The company expects a net profit growth rate of 33.09% for 2025, 15.06% for 2026, and 8.84% for 2027 [7][8] Market Performance - The copper business saw a sales volume increase of 383% year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 49,200 tons [7] - The company plans to sell 78,900 tons of copper in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60% [7] - The mining service business revenue was stable, with a slight decline in unit gross profit [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the national large-scale grain storage construction and equipment updates, indicating a solid growth potential in the coming years [6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.652 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.84%, with a net profit of 234 million yuan, up 7.34% year-on-year [6] - The company is a leader in the domestic grain storage sector, with a forecasted net profit of 282 million yuan for 2025, 358 million yuan for 2026, and 441 million yuan for 2027, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20, 16, and 13 times respectively [6][7] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 5,578.67 million yuan, with a closing price of 10.89 yuan per share [3] - The company's revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.234 billion yuan, 3.975 billion yuan, and 4.916 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.95%, 22.89%, and 23.69% [5][7] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 25.49%, with a slight decrease expected in subsequent years [7]

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 06 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 大能源行业 2024 年报及 2025 一季报回顾 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 18 周周报（20250505） 投资要点： 证券分析师 电力：水电稳健，风况欠佳，火电再分化 水电：经营业绩稳健，重申配置价值。2024 年全国降雨好转，年底高蓄水值贡献 2025 年一季度电量增 速。分流域看，主要流域 2024 年来水均有所改善，但 2025 年旱涝并重，雨情难判。展望 2025 年水电 公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The default risk of AVIC Industry - Finance bonds is relatively small, and the valuation anomaly may be mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand due to the company's delisting. The company has strong solvency and willingness to repay debts [4][29]. - After the bond resumed trading on April 24, 2025, except for the significant increase in yields on the first day due to investors' concentrated selling for risk - aversion, the yield fluctuations slowed down from April 25 to April 30, indicating that the adjustment may have been in place. It is advisable to pay attention to the valuation repair space after the short - term over - decline [4][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 AVIC Industry - Finance Delisting Event Timeline - On March 27, 2025, due to AVIC Industry - Finance's controlling shareholder planning major issues, the company's stocks and bonds were suspended from trading starting March 28. - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance announced the termination of its stock listing through a shareholders' meeting resolution and offered a cash option of 3.54 yuan per share to dissenting shareholders (not exceeding 4.304 billion shares). - On April 23, 2025, the proposal for bond delisting was not passed, and the company's exchange - traded bonds resumed trading on April 24 [3][5]. 3.2 Company Overview of AVIC Industry - Finance - **Equity Structure**: As of March 29, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance had a total share capital of 8.821 billion shares. AVIC held 39.89% of the shares directly and controlled 11.13% indirectly through its subsidiaries. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council was the actual controller [8]. - **Main Business**: AVIC Industry - Finance is an industrial investment and financial service platform of AVIC, engaging in businesses such as financial leasing, trust, securities, and futures through its subsidiaries [11]. - **Financial Status**: According to the 2024 annual performance forecast, AVIC Industry - Finance's net profit attributable to the parent company was - 0.48 billion yuan, and the non - recurring profit and loss net profit attributable to the parent company was - 1.89 billion yuan, the first negative in nearly 17 years. The company's operating performance was affected by business transformation and the macro - economic situation [12]. 3.3 Reasons for AVIC Industry - Finance's Delisting - The continuous decline in AVIC Industry - Finance's performance in recent years, especially the significant drag of the trust business on the overall performance, may be the main reason for its delisting. From 2021 to 2023, the company's total operating income decreased by 11.2%, and the trust business income decreased by 55.4% [3][15]. - AVIC Trust, responsible for the trust business, was affected by the real - estate industry adjustment, with its performance shrinking significantly. Some underlying assets of its real - estate - related trust projects defaulted. The company may hope to delist its stocks and convert standard bonds to "non - standard" to reduce information disclosure and avoid negative public opinion, thus gaining more space for risk disposal [3][16][20]. 3.4 Bond Market Performance of AVIC Industry - Finance - **Bond Balance**: As of April 30, 2025, the balance of AVIC Industry - Finance's domestic bonds was 27.27 billion yuan, and the cumulative overseas debt was 700 million US dollars [21]. - **Yield Performance**: Since the company announced its voluntary delisting on March 28, 2025, except for "24 AVIC Industry - Finance SCP006", the ChinaBond行权 valuations of other domestic debts have increased by more than 100BP, with "23 Industry - Finance 05" having the largest spread of 386BP [3][22]. - **Maturity Distribution**: The maturity and put - back amounts in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 were relatively large, at 5 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan respectively, and the scale decreased in Q4 of 2025 and later. There is no situation where the company faces significant debt - repayment pressure due to concentrated bond redemptions [2][22]. - **Trading Situation**: From April 24 to April 30, 2025, except for one transaction of "22 Industry - Finance 03" at a premium (the maximum weighted trading price was 100.14 yuan per bond), the rest were traded at a discount, and bonds with longer remaining terms generally had a higher discount ratio [2][24]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - **Solvency**: As of September 30, 2024, AVIC Industry - Finance's cash and cash equivalents on a consolidated basis were 51.6 billion yuan, and the balance of readily realizable trading financial assets was 55.9 billion yuan. As of the end of 2023, the company and its subsidiaries had a credit line of 338.1 billion yuan from major loan banks, with 230 billion yuan unused [29]. - **Willingness to Repay Debts**: AVIC Industry - Finance has the credit endorsement of a central enterprise. After announcing its delisting, the company actively organized on - site communication meetings with bondholders and declared in multiple announcements that it would ensure bond repayment on schedule, and has no credit default record in the public market [29].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 06 日 社融增速有望大幅回升 ——2025 年 4 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 4 月新增贷款 8000 亿元，社融 1.5 万亿元。4 月末，M2 达 323.5 万亿，YoY+7.4%；M1（新口径）YoY +2.1%； 社融增速 8.8%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 4 月新增贷款或同比略微多增。4 月下旬，1M 转贴现利率小幅走高，反映当月信贷 投放情况较好。我们预计 4 月新增贷款 8000 亿，同比多增；个贷增量-1000 亿，对 公信贷增量 7000 亿，非银同业贷款+2000 亿。存量按揭利率低及股市平稳缓解提前 还贷压力，一二线城市二手房成交活跃，按揭贷款需求阶段性好转。我们预计 4 月 个贷短期-2000 亿，个贷中长期+1000 亿。4 月对公短贷-2000 亿，对公中长期+4500 亿，票据融资+45 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [4][7] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the garment accessories sector, with solid capacity and product layout that strengthen its competitive advantage [4][7] - The Chinese garment accessories market is expected to maintain stable growth, with a projected CAGR of 5.03% from 2023 to 2030, reaching a market size of 129.16 billion yuan by 2030 [6][13] - The company has been focusing on overseas capacity expansion and product innovation to enhance operational efficiency and customer collaboration [9][31] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023: Revenue of 3,907 million yuan, net profit of 558 million yuan - 2024: Revenue of 4,674 million yuan (up 19.66% YoY), net profit of 700 million yuan (up 25.48% YoY) - 2025: Revenue of 5,183 million yuan (up 10.89% YoY), net profit of 783 million yuan (up 11.80% YoY) - 2026: Revenue of 5,703 million yuan (up 10.02% YoY), net profit of 879 million yuan (up 12.33% YoY) - 2027: Revenue of 6,209 million yuan (up 8.88% YoY), net profit of 967 million yuan (up 9.95% YoY) [5][52] Market Dynamics - The company has established over 20 sales subsidiaries and more than 50 marketing outlets globally, enhancing its collaboration with leading apparel brands [30][31] - The company is committed to high-standard green smart factory construction, which has led to continuous improvements in operational efficiency [48][49] Research and Development - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with expenses reaching 181 million yuan in 2024, a 13.04% increase YoY, and holds 1,372 valid patents [44][50] - The company’s products have received multiple design awards, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [46][47] Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned as a top player in the garment accessories sector, benefiting from its operational efficiency, product innovation, and capacity growth [7][9] - Comparable companies in the same sector include Huayi Group and Anta Sports, which provide a benchmark for valuation [7][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to channel reform and brand synergy efforts in the silver health industry [5] - The company aims to become a leader in the silver health industry and chronic disease management, with a clear strategic goal [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.53%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 31.06% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 36.91%, a decrease of 5.75 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.06%, down 0.50 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company expects revenue growth from 2023 to 2027, with projected revenues of 7.703 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 11.401 billion yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.79% [6][8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 750 million yuan, 909 million yuan, and 1.077 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.73%, 21.22%, and 18.45% [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 15.44, 12.74, and 10.75, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the "777" brand strategy to enhance its market position in the cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment sector [7] - The company is also implementing a "Kun Traditional Medicine 1381" brand strategy to strengthen its product influence and sales growth [7]

证券研究报告 家用电器 | 家电零部件Ⅱ 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 年 | 04 | | | 2025 | | | | 月 | 30 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 48.57 | | | | | | | | | 一 年 内 | 低 | / | | | 61.75/15.82 | | | 最 | 高 | 最 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | 2,216.02 | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | ...

证券研究报告 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 航空机场 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 06 日 量增价稳，供需关系加速改善 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——"五一"假期出行点评 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 出行需求超市场预期，票价持平去年同期。据交通运输部，今年五一期间，全社会 跨区域流动预计 14.67 亿人次，同比+8%；其中航空出行 1114.3 万人次，同比 +11.8%、比 2019 年+24.2%，航空同比增速较民航局节前预计值（8%）高出 3.8pcts。 据 Flight AI, "五一"日均票价（全价票，并包含两舱、国内国际线）约 943 元，较 去年同期持平略高（+0.7%）。供需关系持续改善 ...