证券Ⅱ / 行业点评报告 / 2024.09.27 政策力度加码，各部委合力推进中长期资金入市 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -22% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号：S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《对主要指数成份股和长期破净公司 作出专门要求——上市公司市值管理 监管指引点评》 2024-09-25 2. 《支持上市公司并购重组，券商并购 业务迎机遇——并购重组市场改革新 政点评》 2024-09-25 3. 《如何看待"一行一局一会"政策组 合拳对券商股的影响？》 2024-09-25 9 月政治局会议&中长期资金入市意见点评 核心观点 ❖ 事件：9 月 26 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署 下一步经济工作。同日，为落实政治局会议部署，中央金融办、中国证监会联 合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》(以下简称《指导意见》)。 ❖ 政策力度加码，努力提 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the market benchmark index in the coming months [8]. Core Insights - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, including controlling new construction, optimizing existing projects, and increasing loan support for "white list" projects, which is expected to benefit the home furnishing sector as it is part of the real estate supply chain [3]. - The government has announced policies to lower existing mortgage rates and adjust housing purchase restrictions, which are anticipated to stimulate demand in the home furnishing market [3]. - The "trade-in" program for home appliances is showing positive results, with various regions implementing subsidies to promote home renovations and smart home consumption, leading to a significant increase in retail sales for furniture and sanitary ware [3]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Stabilization - The report highlights the government's commitment to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including optimizing existing housing stock and increasing financial support for key projects [3]. Consumer Demand and Trade-in Programs - The report notes that the trade-in programs for home appliances are gaining traction, with several regions actively promoting home renovations, which is expected to release pent-up demand in the home furnishing sector [3]. Sales Growth - Retail sales for furniture and sanitary ware have shown significant growth, with furniture sales increasing by 8.9% and sanitary ware by 12% year-on-year from April to August 2024, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has signed a large natural gas project with BAPCO, marking a breakthrough in the Middle East market [5] - The total contract amount is approximately $316 million, equivalent to about 2.2 billion RMB [5] - The project includes six booster stations and one central compression station, with a total gas processing capacity of nearly 900 MMSCFD [5] - The project is significant as it is the first large-scale natural gas EPCC cooperation project since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Bahrain [5] - The company has successfully entered the high-end oil and gas engineering market in the Middle East, following previous contracts with major oil companies in the region [5] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved overseas revenue of 2.381 billion RMB, accounting for 48.04% of total revenue [5] - The gross profit margin for overseas markets increased by 1.25 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company signed new orders worth 7.179 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.92% [5] - The total backlog of orders at the end of the first half of 2024 was 9.191 billion RMB, indicating a strong order pipeline [5] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.76 billion RMB, 3.28 billion RMB, and 3.73 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 10.7, 9.0, and 7.9 times for the same years [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The launch of the C10 and T03 models in Europe marks a significant step in the company's international expansion strategy, supported by Stellantis [4] - The company plans to leverage Stellantis' distribution channels to increase its sales points to 350 by Q4 2024, with over 200 in Europe [4] - The C10 and T03 models are equipped with leading electric technology, offering high performance, efficiency, safety, and range [4] Financial Summary - The closing price as of September 25, 2024, is HKD 26.00, with a circulating share capital of 1.116 billion shares [2] - The projected revenue for 2024 is CNY 29.906 billion, with a growth rate of 78.58% [6] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of CNY 1.023 billion by 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 30.76 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the banking sector, indicating that the recent policy adjustments will have a manageable impact on the banks' fundamentals [3][4]. Core Insights - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 50 basis point (bp) reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity to the financial market, which will support banks' net interest margins (NIM) [3][8]. - The reduction in existing mortgage rates is anticipated to negatively impact banks' NIM by approximately 5.45 bp in 2025, affecting revenue and profit by 3.26% and 4.35% respectively [3][10]. - The overall impact of these policies on banks' fundamentals is considered controllable, as the reduction in mortgage rates is expected to stimulate consumer spending and investment, benefiting banks' retail loan business [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of RRR Reduction on Banks' NIM - The central bank's decision to lower the RRR by 50 bp is projected to enhance banks' liquidity by approximately 98.39 billion yuan, providing low-cost, long-term funding to support economic growth [8][9]. - A cumulative RRR reduction of 50 bp, 75 bp, and 100 bp is estimated to improve the overall NIM of listed banks by about 0.67 bp, 1.00 bp, and 1.34 bp respectively [8][9]. 2. Positive Policies for Banks' Fundamentals - The government plans to strengthen the capital adequacy ratio of state-owned banks by increasing their core Tier 1 capital [3]. - The establishment of a financing coordination mechanism for small and micro enterprises is expected to alleviate risks in key sectors [3]. 3. Potential Benefits from Incremental Funds - The banking sector is likely to benefit from the influx of incremental funds, particularly from institutional investors such as securities, funds, and insurance companies, due to its high dividend yield [4][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks within the banking sector, as the recent interest rate adjustments are expected to have a neutral overall impact on banks [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a strong willingness to maintain prices in the upstream silicon material segment, with a slight price adjustment observed in new orders [3][8] - The electric equipment sector shows significant growth, with a 65.1% year-on-year increase in grid construction investment in August, reaching 38.3 billion yuan [3][17] - The wind power sector has seen new wind turbine bidding projects totaling 0.65GW this week, with ongoing strong demand for offshore and onshore projects [3][22] - The lithium battery sector is in a bottoming phase, with clear signs of market clearing as new national standards for electric two-wheelers are revised [3][29] - The hydrogen energy segment is poised for high growth, with significant domestic and international green hydrogen projects emerging [3][29] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - **Price Changes**: The upstream silicon rod segment shows a strong price maintenance intention, with new order prices experiencing a slight decline. The overall market for battery cells remains stable, with limited pricing power [3][8][10] - **Industry Dynamics**: Multiple photovoltaic policies have been released, including a significant increase in tariffs on polysilicon and silicon wafers by the U.S. [10][11] Electric Equipment - **Main Network**: The total bidding volume for transformers in 2023 is 370,674 MVA, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% [13] - **Electric Investment**: Nationwide electric power engineering investment from January to August reached 497.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [17] - **Export Data**: In August, the export value of electric meters was 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [17][20] Wind Power - **New Bidding Situation**: This week, new wind turbine bidding projects totaled 0.65GW, with significant projects in both onshore and offshore categories [22][24] - **Industry Dynamics**: The cumulative bidding for wind power in 2024 has reached 149GW, a year-on-year increase of 96.81% [24] Hydrogen Energy - **Data Tracking**: From January to September 2024, the cumulative bidding for electrolyzers reached 2,187.05MW, a year-on-year increase of 56.16% [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent regulatory guidelines on market capitalization management for listed companies are expected to enhance investor supervision, improve operational efficiency, and profitability of listed companies. This is particularly relevant for major index constituent companies, which may boost confidence among institutional and individual investors, thereby enhancing market stability [3][4] - Current financial policies are anticipated to alleviate the ongoing liquidity issues in the equity market, presenting a valuation recovery opportunity for brokerage stocks. Key recommendations include focusing on leading brokerages such as Citic Securities and China Galaxy, as well as Eastmoney, which is expected to benefit from increased trading volume [3] Summary by Sections Regulatory Guidelines - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Guidelines for Listed Company Regulation No. 10 - Market Capitalization Management (Draft for Comments)" on September 24 [4] - The guidelines define market capitalization management as actions taken to enhance the quality of listed companies through legal means such as mergers and acquisitions, equity incentives, cash dividends, investor relations management, and share buybacks [4] - Responsibilities of the board of directors, senior management, and controlling shareholders are clearly outlined, emphasizing their roles in enhancing investment value and participating in investor relations activities [4] - Special requirements are set for major index constituent companies and long-term undervalued companies, mandating them to disclose their market capitalization management systems and valuation enhancement plans [4] - The guidelines prohibit illegal activities under the guise of market capitalization management, ensuring protection for minority investors [4]

如何看待"一行一局一会"政策组合拳 对券商股的影响？ 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号：S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《风控指标落地，提升优质券商资金 使用效率——证券基金行业周度跟踪》 2024-09-23 2. 《《证券公司保荐业务规则》修订点 评》 2024-09-21 3. 《证券公司风控指标正式稿落地点 评 》 2024-09-21 证券Ⅱ / 行业点评报告 / 2024.09.25 核心观点 金融政策"组合拳"解读 ❖ 事件：9/24，国新办举行新闻发布会，央行行长潘功胜宣布三项重大政策：1） 降低存款准备金率和政策利率。2）降低存量房贷利率，并统一房贷的最低首 付比例。3）创设新的货币政策工具，支持股票市场稳定发展。 ❖ 央行第一次创新结构性货币政策工具以支持资本市场，超市场预期。 1）创设证券、基金、保险公司互换便 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1][9] Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released new guidelines on September 24, aimed at deepening the reform of the listed companies' merger and acquisition (M&A) market, which includes six major measures to support M&A activities [4] - The new measures emphasize enhancing regulatory inclusiveness, improving payment flexibility and review efficiency, and strengthening the service level of intermediary institutions [4] - The report highlights that the M&A business presents new opportunities for leading securities firms, especially as the IPO and refinancing markets tighten, making M&A a potential growth point for investment banking [4] - The report suggests that leading securities firms are likely to benefit from industry resource integration and improved risk control indicators, with a focus on firms like CITIC Securities and China Galaxy Securities [4] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The report notes the recent performance of the market over the past 12 months [1] Regulatory Changes - The CSRC's new guidelines include a mechanism for phased payment of shares in M&A transactions, extending the approval validity period from 12 months to 48 months [4] - Adjustments to regulations regarding competition and related transactions have been made to increase tolerance for certain conditions [4] - Lock-up periods for private equity funds and minority shareholders in restructuring have been reduced [4] Opportunities for Securities Firms - The report emphasizes the need for securities firms to increase their investment in financial advisory services to facilitate M&A transactions [4] - It is expected that the M&A business will become a new focal point for growth amid tightening IPO and refinancing conditions [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading securities firms that are likely to benefit from resource optimization and improved return on equity (ROE) due to the new financial policies [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company, marking the first coverage [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in dry-type transformers and is expanding into energy storage as its second growth curve [3] - The global dry-type transformer market is expected to reach $9.2 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.8% from 2023 to 2028 [3] - The company issued convertible bonds to expand its energy storage and digital production capacity for power transmission and distribution equipment [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.39 billion yuan, 9.435 billion yuan, and 12.289 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - Net profits attributable to the parent company are projected to be 596 million yuan, 814 million yuan, and 1.118 billion yuan for the same periods [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 22.34x, 16.35x, and 11.90x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Business Overview - The company specializes in dry-type transformers, with applications in wind power, rail transit, and energy efficiency [10] - It is one of the few companies globally capable of producing dry-type transformers for wind power applications, serving major wind turbine manufacturers like VESTAS, GE, and SIEMENS Gamesa [3] - The company has a clear equity structure, with the controlling shareholder holding 40.46% of the shares [14] Energy Storage Business - The company has a total energy storage production capacity of 3.9GWh across its Wuhan and Guilin bases [3] - It focuses on medium and high-voltage direct-hanging (cascaded) energy storage systems, which offer cost and performance advantages [3] - In 2023, the company secured new energy storage system orders worth 641 million yuan (excluding tax), a year-on-year increase of 144.87% [3] Market Opportunities - The dry-type transformer market is driven by its advantages over oil-immersed transformers, including higher safety, smaller size, and lower maintenance costs [3] - The company's dry-type transformers are widely used in wind power, rail transit, and energy efficiency sectors, with significant growth potential in these areas [25] - The global energy storage market is expected to grow rapidly, with the company well-positioned to benefit from this trend [46] Competitive Advantages - The company's dry-type transformers have higher capacity and voltage ratings compared to domestic peers, approaching the leading indicators of international competitors [26] - Its energy storage systems leverage the company's existing technology in power electronics and energy management, providing cost and performance advantages [56] - The company's high-voltage direct-hanging (cascaded) energy storage systems offer superior performance metrics, including higher efficiency and faster response times [62] Customer Base - The company's energy storage systems target customers in the power generation, grid, and industrial sectors, overlapping with its existing customer base [63] - Major clients include traditional power generation companies like China General Nuclear Power Group and State Power Investment Corporation, as well as renewable energy companies like Goldwind and Shanghai Electric [65]