1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global commodity ETF market, including its development history, market structure, user groups, and application scenarios. It also compares the Chinese and overseas commodity ETF markets, highlighting the gaps and potential for development in the Chinese market. Commodity ETFs have become a core financial tool for investors to gain exposure to commodity risks, driven by factors such as inflation hedging and portfolio diversification [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity ETF Development History 3.1.1 Overseas Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (Late 1990s - Early 2000s)**: The development of commodity ETFs began in the late 20th to early 21st century. Early products used futures contracts as underlying assets, and precious metals became the breakthrough for early commodity ETFs. In 2003, Australia launched the Gold Bullion Securities (GBS), and in 2004, the US launched the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the first large - scale and widely - adopted commodity ETF [13][14]. - **Stage 2 (2005 - 2010s)**: Commodity ETFs entered a period of rapid development with diversified product targets. The global financial crisis in 2008 led to an increase in the asset scale of gold ETFs and the diversification of commodity ETF structures, including the emergence of ETN [16][17]. - **Stage 3 (2015 - Present)**: The commodity ETF market has become more diversified. Theme - based commodity ETFs have developed rapidly, and there is a clear differentiation in investor preferences between institutional and retail investors [19]. 3.1.2 Chinese Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (2013 - 2014)**: China's commodity ETFs started late but developed rapidly. The first domestic gold ETF was launched in 2013, and several other gold ETFs were launched in 2014 [23]. - **Stage 2 (2019 - Present)**: The domestic commodity ETF market has become more diversified, covering non - precious metal sectors such as agricultural products, industrial metals, and energy [24]. 3.2 Commodity ETF Market Structure and Current Situation 3.2.1 Generalized and Narrow - Sense Commodity ETFs Generalized commodity ETFs include narrow - sense commodity ETFs (funds), commodity ETCs (physical collateral certificates), and commodity ETNs (unsecured bonds). Narrow - sense commodity ETFs can be further divided into physical, equity, and futures - based types [27]. 3.2.2 Market Scale The commodity ETF market has been growing in recent years, but its overall scale accounts for a relatively small proportion of the global ETF market. The market is highly concentrated regionally, with the US and Europe leading in terms of scale [37][40]. 3.2.3 Classification Scale Characteristics - **By Fund Type**: Narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETCs have seen stable growth in quantity and asset scale, while commodity ETNs have shown high volatility. The US is the main market for narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETNs, and Europe is the main market for commodity ETCs [42][50]. - **By Investment Target**: Asset allocation in generalized commodity ETFs is mainly concentrated in precious metals. In commodity ETNs, the composite index and energy play important roles [53][55]. 3.2.4 Concentration Characteristics and Top Products The asset scale of commodity ETFs is highly concentrated. Commodity ETCs and agricultural - themed generalized commodity ETFs have the highest concentration. The top 20 products are mainly precious - metal - based ETFs, showing concentration in fund type, asset target, and listing region [77][80][81]. 3.3 Commodity ETF User Groups and Application Scenarios 3.3.1 Investor Structure Overview Institutional investors' holding scale in the global generalized commodity ETF market has been growing steadily, while the holding ratio has remained relatively stable. Institutional investors prefer precious metals and composite index ETFs, narrow - sense commodity ETFs, and large - scale products. There are significant regional differences in investor structure [86][92][104]. 3.3.2 Investor Allocation Logic and Demand Scenarios - **Core Financial Tool**: Commodity ETFs are used for industry rotation investment, event - driven trading, theme investment, and earning roll - over returns [2]. - **Inflation Hedging**: Commodity ETFs are used to hedge inflation and are an important part of asset allocation during high - inflation periods [132][133]. - **Portfolio Diversification**: Commodity ETFs have low correlations with traditional financial assets, which can reduce portfolio volatility and enhance returns [145]. - **Currency Risk Hedging and Hedging**: Commodity ETFs can be used for currency risk hedging and hedging operations, especially suitable for small and medium - sized enterprises [149]. 3.4 Comparison of Chinese and Overseas Commodity ETFs The Chinese commodity ETF market has made great progress but still lags behind mature markets in terms of product coverage, strategy design, investor structure, and market liquidity. The Chinese market mainly consists of traditional passive products and a retail - dominated investor structure, with great potential for development [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report Since 2024, the gold market has entered a strong upward cycle, with prices repeatedly hitting record highs. The main drivers include the shift in market trading logic towards macro - variables, high geopolitical risk premiums, and the global central banks' systematic increase in gold reserves. Options offer investors effective ways to participate in the gold market and manage price - fluctuation risks. Different strategies, such as hedging and unilateral strategies, can be used according to investors' positions and market expectations. The key factors of gold option strategies, including strike price selection, position - building quantity, month selection, and volatility environment, also need to be carefully considered [1][10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold Repeatedly Hits Record Highs: How to Express Views with Options? - **Market Situation and Drivers**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly broken historical records. The main drivers are the shift in market trading logic to macro - variable pricing, high geopolitical risk premiums, and the global central banks' systematic increase in gold reserves. In 2025, changes in the global trade environment further pushed up the gold price [10]. - **Investors' Dilemma and Options' Role**: Existing gold - position holders face the choice between holding and profiting, while non - position investors are unsure about entering the market. Options provide a way to participate in the gold market and manage risks due to their non - linear return structure and risk - controllability [11]. 1.1 Hedge Strategies - **Protective Put Option Strategy**: For investors with gold positions, they can buy put options to build a "protective put option" strategy. For example, for the AU2512 contract, a put option with a strike price of 976 yuan/gram and a premium of about 40 yuan/gram can hedge the value loss of the spot position when the price falls below the strike price, and the maximum loss is locked at 40 yuan/gram [15]. - **Comparison with Futures Hedge**: Compared with futures hedging, option hedging retains the upside potential while providing downside protection. Option strategies also have advantages in capital efficiency, with lower capital occupation and no margin - call risk. However, the net income of option hedging may be lower than that of futures hedging when the price drops [17][19]. - **Bear Spread Strategy**: Investors can build a bear spread strategy by buying and selling put options to reduce the net premium cost. For example, buying a put option with a strike price of 976 yuan/gram and selling one with a strike price of 904 yuan/gram can reduce the net premium to 28.6 yuan/gram. This strategy can also be constructed with call options, and call - option - based strategies usually have an advantage in liquidity [22][31][32]. 1.2 Unilateral Strategies - **Buying Call Options**: For investors who are bullish on gold but have not built positions, buying call options can control risks. For example, for the AU2512 contract, a call option with a strike price of 976 yuan/gram and a premium of 38 yuan/gram has a maximum loss of 38 yuan/gram, and the break - even point is 1014 yuan/gram [36]. - **Bull Spread Strategy**: It can be constructed in two ways, but due to the lack of a portfolio - margin system in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, buying call options unilaterally is a better choice for capital - efficiency - oriented investors [42]. - **Selling Out - of - the - Money Put Options**: If investors believe that the gold price has limited upside but strong support, they can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums. For example, selling a put option with a strike price of 904 yuan/gram can earn a premium of 11.4 yuan/gram. If the price drops below 904 yuan/gram, the investor can establish a long position at an effective cost of 892.6 yuan/gram [44]. 2. Key Factors of Gold Option Strategies 2.1 Strike Price Selection - **Analysis of Different Strike Prices**: Higher strike prices lead to a higher break - even point and a narrower potential return, but lower premiums. In a case from October 13 - 17, 2025, options with higher strike prices achieved better capital returns [48][49]. - **Dynamic Rolling Strategy**: To deal with the uncertainty of the end - price, investors can use a "dynamic rolling" strategy, which can balance profit - taking and risk - avoidance [53]. - **Liquidity Consideration**: When choosing strike prices, investors should consider liquidity. Trading volume and open interest are usually concentrated around at - the - money and some out - of - the - money integer strike prices [55]. 2.2 Position - Building Quantity - **Unilateral Strategy**: In unilateral strategies, the key is to control the notional principal exposure of option positions. A risk - budget method based on the notional principal is recommended [60]. - **Hedge Strategy**: For hedge strategies held to maturity, the equal - market - value hedge strategy is recommended. If the position is to be closed before maturity, the Delta - hedge strategy should be used. However, the dynamic Delta - hedge strategy is more suitable for market - makers and volatility traders [61][63][69]. - **Insurance Budget Model**: Some investors use an "insurance budget" model. They need to compare the overall risk exposure of different strike - price options. Higher - Delta and higher - Gamma hedge portfolios have different advantages [70]. 2.3 Month Selection - **Liquidity Consideration**: When choosing the expiration month, liquidity should be the primary consideration. The liquidity difference between odd - month and even - month options is smaller than that of futures. Near - month options can reduce capital costs, and investors should consider liquidity, holding period, and volatility characteristics [74]. - **Greek Letter Parameters**: Different expiration months have different impacts on Greek letter parameters. For example, the Gamma of at - the - money options near expiration increases significantly, and the Theta of at - the - money options shows an "acceleration effect" [78]. 2.4 Volatility Environment - **Selling Options in High - Volatility Environment**: The implied volatility of gold options has reached a historically high level, providing a good opportunity to sell options and short volatility. Selling options can capture the double benefits of time - value decay and volatility decline [84]. - **Volatility Smile and Term Structure**: The implied volatility of out - of - the - money put options is significantly higher than that of call options, reflecting higher demand for downside - risk protection. The near - month option volatility has risen faster, leading to a term - structure inversion, providing an opportunity for volatility - term arbitrage [85][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The congestion situation at Chinese ports has significantly improved compared to the previous period, but recent gale - weather in the East China region may briefly affect ship berthing operations again. It is necessary to continuously monitor the changes in the congestion rhythm. - Port operations in Southeast Asia are highly volatile, and congestion may recur. - Although the strikes at the ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam have ended, it will still take a long time to process the backlogged goods, and port congestion may persist, potentially affecting the return journey of ships on European routes on a large scale. - The operating conditions of North American ports are good. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Review 3.1.1 Asian Ports - **Waiting and Berthing Times**: The weekly average waiting/berthing times of ocean - going container ships at Yangshan Port are 7.2 hours/26.0 hours, at Waigaoqiao are 12.4 hours/17.5 hours, at Ningbo Port are 11.8 hours/21.0 hours, at Qingdao are 19.3 hours/28.0 hours, at Singapore Port are 2.8 hours/26.4 hours, and at Port Klang are 23.7 hours/30.2 hours. - **Number of Ships at Anchor and Berthing**: The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing at Yangshan Port is 2/8, at Waigaoqiao is 12/24, at Ningbo Port is 7/21, at Singapore Port is 6/48, and at Port Klang is 7/27. - **Average Turnover Time**: The average turnover time at Yangshan Port is about 1.4 days, at Ningbo Port is about 1.5 days, and at Yantian Port is about 1.4 days. - **Average Time in Port**: The average time in port at Singapore Port is 1.8 days, and at Port Klang is 1.4 days. [2] 3.1.2 European Ports - **Waiting and Berthing Times**: The weekly average waiting/berthing times of ocean - going container ships at Rotterdam are 25.7 hours/62.2 hours, at Antwerp are 13.2 hours/45.9 hours, at Hamburg are 9.1 hours/38.6 hours, at Bremen are 0 hours/32.4 hours, and at Valencia are 24.2 hours/34.9 hours. - **Number of Ships at Anchor and Berthing**: The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing at Rotterdam is 6/29, at Antwerp is 10/15, at Hamburg is 0/13, and at Valencia is 7/10. - **Average Time in Port**: The average time in port at Antwerp is about 3.0 days, at Rotterdam is 3.9 days, at Hamburg is 1.9 days, and at Bremen is 1.7 days. [2] 3.1.3 North American Ports - **Waiting and Berthing Times**: The weekly average waiting/berthing times of ocean - going container ships at Long Beach are 0 hours/95.7 hours, at Los Angeles are 2.5 hours/94.0 hours, at Tacoma are 0 hours/64.6 hours, at New York are 3.1 hours/51.6 hours, at Savannah are 16.7 hours/34.7 hours, at Norfolk are 17.7 hours/23.2 hours, and at Houston are 3.2 hours/50.3 hours. - **Number of Ships at Anchor and Berthing**: The number of container ships at anchor at Long Beach and Los Angeles is 0, and the number of berthing container ships is 19; the number of container ships at anchor/berthing at New York is 0/8. [2] 3.2 Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia, the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in some Southeast Asian and Chinese ports, and the average waiting, berthing, and in - port times of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 10. [9][11][16] 3.3 European Port Dynamic Tracking - The report shows data charts such as the scale of container ships in port in Europe, the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in some Northwest European and Mediterranean ports, and the average waiting, berthing, and in - port times of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 10. [19][22][27] 3.4 North American Port Dynamic Tracking - The report provides data charts including the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in some North American ports, the scale of container ships in port in North America, and the average waiting, berthing, and in - port times of ocean - going container ships in North American container ports from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 10. [37][40][41] 3.5 Large - Ship Arrival Situation and Key Hub Monitoring - **Large - Container Ship Arrival at Major Ports**: The report shows the arrival situation of large - container ships at Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port, including ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 17,000 TEU and over 17,000 TEU from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 10. - **Arrival of 12,000 + TEU Container Ships by Alliances**: It presents the arrival situation of 12,000 + TEU container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 10. - **Container Ship Passage at Key Canals and Capes**: The report shows the passage situation of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal, including the number of arriving container ships and the container passage volume from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 10. [46][49][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - In September, economic data continued to weaken, with supply still exceeding demand. The policy in Q3 focused more on structural adjustment than on stabilizing growth. Although this shift brought some positive results, the problem of insufficient endogenous growth momentum in China remained unsolved, and the fading policy effectiveness led to a further weakening of economic data [1][9][10]. - Policy is moderately proactive. The economic growth rate in Q4 is expected to have a small fluctuation range, and the overall economic growth rate this year is high in the first half and low in the second half. As policy effectiveness gradually emerges, the pressure of weakening demand will be partially offset. The bond market sentiment has significantly improved compared to Q3. After the Fourth Plenary Session, as incremental policies are exhausted, the influence of fundamentals on the bond market will reappear, and Treasury bond futures are expected to have a relatively smooth recovery [2][11]. - The bond market is expected to turn from weak to strong, and the yield curve is expected to flatten. During the Fourth Plenary Session, there were relatively many policies, so it is advisable to stay cautious. In November, if the new regulations on fund fees are not considered, incremental policies will be relatively limited. The bond market is expected to refocus on fundamentals and experience a relatively smooth recovery, with the curve oscillating and flattening [3][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 9 - Month Economic Data: Continued Weakening with Supply Exceeding Demand - **Overview of Economic Data**: In September, industrial added - value (工增) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods (社零) increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to September was - 0.5%. The Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8%, slightly exceeding market expectations [9]. - **Structural Analysis**: Exports were stronger than domestic demand, supply was stronger than demand, and the new economy continued to outperform the old economy, but the investment growth rate of some new economy sectors was also slowing down [1][10]. 3.2 Demand Side 3.2.1 Investment: Cumulative Growth Rate Turns Negative - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to September was - 0.5%, and private investment growth rate was - 3.1%, both showing a downward trend [12]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative investment growth rate in manufacturing from January to September was 4.0%, and the growth rate in September was - 1.9%, continuing to decline. In the future, the manufacturing investment growth rate is likely to decline with resilience, but the decline rate is relatively controllable [15][16]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of broad - based infrastructure from January to September was 3.34%, and the narrow - based infrastructure growth rate was 1.1%. The infrastructure growth rate continued to decline but is expected to rise slightly in the future [19]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In September, real estate data continued to weaken. The growth rate of real estate development investment from January to September was - 13.9%. The real estate market's endogenous recovery momentum is insufficient, and the process of stabilizing and rebounding is expected to be tortuous [24][25]. 3.2.2 Consumer Demand: Declining Income and Retail Sales Growth - **Retail Sales Growth**: In September, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year, with a negative month - on - month growth rate. The growth rate of residents' disposable income decreased, and the propensity to consume also declined. The growth momentum of retail sales of consumer goods is weak this year [28][30]. 3.3 Production Side - **Industrial Production**: In September, industrial added - value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, with a relatively fast growth rate. Exports showed resilience, driving production. However, in the future, terminal demand may be weak, which will drag down production, but total supply is unlikely to shrink significantly in Q4 [31][38][39]. 3.4 Bond Market Outlook - **Short - Term Factors**: In the short term, policies and Sino - US trade relations are the main factors affecting the bond market. It is recommended that trading desks adopt a cautious approach [40]. - **Mid - to - Long - Term Outlook**: From late October to November, the bond market is expected to turn from weak to strong. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, and the yield curve is expected to flatten [40]. - **Strategies**: For the unilateral strategy, be cautious in short - term trading this week and look for opportunities to build long - term long positions on dips. For the hedging strategy, short - hedgers should wait and see. For the curve strategy, continue to focus on flattening the curve [41][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 库存持续攀升，新产线点火继续推迟 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/10/17 当周）： 截至 10 月 17 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13 元/平方米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21 元 /平方米，亦环比上周持平。 能 上周光伏玻璃供给端维持稳定，近期光伏玻璃新产线的投产节奏 开始放缓，本周原有 2-3 条产线存在投产预期，但是基于十月份 光伏玻璃市场需求偏弱，点火计划出现推迟，后续实际点火时间 仍需跟进。此外，由于 11、12 月份是光伏玻璃需求淡季，后续 新产线点火情况不容乐观。 源 化 工 今年国庆后光伏玻璃需求端恢复缓慢，一方面是组件厂家光伏玻 璃原料库存较高，进入 10 月，组件厂家以消化现有库存为主， 新增采购较少；另一方面是组件厂家存在明显的压价预期，倾向 于通过控制订单释放节奏来向光伏玻璃厂家争取更有利的价格 条件，从而导致市场需求未能完全释放，也进一步加剧了光伏玻 璃企业的出货压力。上周组件厂家拿货量仍比较少，多家光伏玻 璃企业产销难以持平。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: - Gold: Short - term price is in a volatile phase, with a risk of decline. [14][15] - U.S. Stock Index Futures: Market risk preference is expected to improve, but volatility remains high. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips. [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market has strengthened, but risks exist. It is recommended to take a cautious approach in short - term trading. [27][29] - Foreign Exchange Futures (USD Index): The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] - **Commodity Markets**: - Agricultural Products: - Sugar: ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [36][37] - Cotton: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - Red Dates: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] - Corn: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] - Black Metals: - Rebar/HRC: Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a volatile approach is recommended. [45][46] - Coking Coal/Coke: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49][50] - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The price of copper is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. [57][58] - Polysilicon: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [61][62] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to buy on dips. [64] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [65][66] - Zinc: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. [68] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [69][70] - Nickel: It is recommended for the allocation portfolio to buy mid - to long - term long positions on dips, and for the speculative portfolio to consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [72][73] - Energy Chemicals: - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. [74][75] - Crude Oil: The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term. [75][76] - Methanol: It is recommended to wait and see. [77][78] - PVC: The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the downside space is limited. [80] - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda futures is expected to be weak in the short term. [82] - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on the processing fee. [85] - Urea: It is not recommended to be overly bearish when the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton. [88] - Soda Ash: A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the progress of new capacity. [90] - Float Glass: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash when the spread widens. [92] - Shipping Index: For the 12 - contract, continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities, and pay attention to risk management due to geopolitical disturbances. [94][95] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Trump met with Zelensky, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin for precious metals. [13][14] - **Comment**: Gold prices fluctuated sharply on Friday, reaching a new high before falling back. The market's bullish sentiment cooled down, and profit - taking occurred. Short - term gold is overbought, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [14] - **Investment Advice**: Gold prices will enter a volatile phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [15] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - USD Index) - **News**: The Bank of Japan's governor did not disclose whether to raise interest rates before the October policy meeting. The ECB's Lagarde advocated a unified approach to Russian assets. Trump urged Zelensky to accept a cease - fire. [16][17] - **Comment**: Trump pressured Ukraine to end the conflict, but a cease - fire along the current front line faces significant resistance. The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18] - **Investment Advice**: The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported trucks, and Fed's Musalem supported a rate cut in October. [20][21] - **Comment**: With the start of the earnings season, the profit forecast of U.S. stocks has been revised upwards, and the risk of regional banks has not further spread. The Sino - U.S. negotiation situation has improved marginally, which is positive for risk assets. U.S. stocks may continue to recover their previous losses next week. [21] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that market risk preference will continue to improve, but volatility remains high. A bullish approach should be taken, and buying on dips is recommended. [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng held a video call with U.S. officials, and the Ministry of Finance announced measures to consolidate economic recovery. [22][23] - **Comment**: Tariff escalation has a long - tail effect. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session. Stock indices are in a high - level volatile pattern. [24][25] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit, and the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases. [26][27] - **Comment**: The bond market has strengthened as expected, but risks exist. It is recommended to realize the floating profits of some unilateral trading positions next week. [27] - **Investment Advice**: A cautious approach is recommended for short - term trading. [29] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 42nd week was 2.1662 million tons, and the expected volume in the 43rd week is 2.3335 million tons. [30] - **Comment**: The palm oil market lacks a clear driver, and the soybean oil market lacks data and policy guidance and continues to fluctuate. [30] - **Investment Advice**: For palm oil, pay attention to production, inventory, and replenishment in India. A long - allocation approach is recommended. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. [30][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: The Philippines suspended sugar imports until the end of the 2025/26 season. China's cumulative sugar imports in the 2024/25 season were 4.63 million tons. The number of sugar - carrying ships in Brazilian ports increased to 90. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. [32][33][34][35] - **Comment**: Brazilian sugar production is strong, but the sugar - making ratio has declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating that sugar mills are more willing to produce ethanol. ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. [36] - **Investment Advice**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [37] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - **News**: The cumulative public inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124%. India's cotton production and imports were adjusted. Cotton prices stabilized, and the downstream market was weak. [38][39][40] - **Comment**: The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton is stable, which supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the pressure of hedging and weak downstream demand limit the upside. [41] - **Investment Advice**: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [42] 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - **News**: China's shipbuilding indicators ranked first globally in the first three quarters. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons. [44][45] - **Comment**: The inventory of five major steel products has declined, but the absolute inventory is still high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the supply pressure of finished steel exists. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [45] - **Investment Advice**: A volatile approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term. [46] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is expected to increase. [47] - **Comment**: The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of data. The domestic supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is high. [47] - **Investment Advice**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] 2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is stable. [48][49] - **Comment**: The production of coking coal is normal, and the demand for replenishment exists. The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49] - **Investment Advice**: The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [50] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: The operating rate of starch sugar products has increased slightly after the holiday. [51] - **Comment**: The theoretical profit of starch enterprises has improved, and the operating rate has increased, and the inventory has accumulated seasonally. The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - **Investment Advice**: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - **News**: The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market fluctuated slightly. [52] - **Comment**: The futures price of red dates rose, and the supply is about to enter the harvesting period, while the demand is weak. [53][54] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The inventory of major corn processing enterprises increased by 5.48%. [55] - **Comment**: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has entered the seasonal increase stage. The spot price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. [55] - **Investment Advice**: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: Codelco raised the copper premium in Europe in 2026 to a record high. Zijin Mining's net profit in the third quarter increased by 52.25% year - on - year. [56][57] - **Comment**: The market will focus on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations and U.S. inflation data. The macro factors may cause short - term fluctuations in copper prices. The domestic and LME inventories show different trends. The price of copper is expected to be volatile. [57][58] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. Arbitrage should be observed. [58] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: Hebei plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price. The price of polysilicon products is stable, and the demand is weakening at the end of October. [59][60][61] - **Comment**: The price of polysilicon is expected to be flat. Although there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, the upstream has no obvious inventory pressure, and production restrictions and sales restrictions are still being implemented. [61] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang has increased, while that in the south has decreased. The social inventory has increased. [63][64] - **Comment**: The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure. However, the price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply significantly. Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] - **Investment Advice**: Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.99/ton on October 16. [65] - **Comment**: The prices of domestic and LME lead showed different trends last week. The supply of primary and secondary lead is expected to recover. The inventory of lead ingots has increased, but the short - term supply - demand mismatch may continue. The internal - external price ratio is expected to return. [65] - **Investment Advice**: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $137.2/ton on October 16. Bolivia's zinc concentrate production decreased in 2025, while Peru's increased in August. [67][68] - **Comment**: The high premium of LME zinc has stimulated a small amount of overseas warehousing, and the zinc ingot export window has opened briefly. The global low - inventory situation is difficult to improve. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to be volatile, and the price difference may turn positive. [68] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. Positive - spread positions should be closed in batches on dips. [68] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the standard. [69] - **Comment**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, which supports the price. The price may be supported by the de - stocking in the peak season, but further upward momentum depends on supply disruptions. [69] - **Investment Advice**: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [70] 2

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it presents investment outlooks for different sectors: - **Bullish**: Precious metals, copper, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, coke, European Line Container Shipping, cotton yarn, soybeans, and cotton [1][2][4] - **Bearish**: Zinc, lead, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, methanol, PTA, PVC, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, sugar, and corn [1][2][3][4] - **Sideways**: Aluminum, tin, nickel, hot-rolled coil, and soybean meal [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints The report uses technical analysis to evaluate the futures market trends for the 43rd week of 2025. It indicates that different sectors show varying trends, with some sectors being bullish, some bearish, and others sideways. The report suggests investors seize opportunities in bullish sectors, conduct range trading in sideways sectors, and avoid the downside risks in bearish sectors [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Precious metals are bullish across the board. Among non-ferrous metals, copper, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon are bullish, while lead, industrial silicon, and zinc are bearish. The rest are sideways [10][11] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Precious metals, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are likely to break through resistance levels, while zinc, lead, and industrial silicon may fall below support levels. The report recommends a differentiated strategy [17] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Coke and European Line Container Shipping are bullish, while rebar, iron ore, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are bearish. The rest are sideways [19][20] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: European Line Container Shipping and coke show upward momentum, while most black commodities are bearish. Hot-rolled coil and wire rod are expected to trade sideways around pivot points [27] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG are bearish, as are most chemical products such as methanol, PTA, and PVC. Some are sideways [31][32] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, methanol, PTA, and PVC are under pressure to fall below support levels. Low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and p-xylene are in a tug-of-war around pivot points [39] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Cotton yarn, soybeans, cotton, apples, jujubes, peanuts, and logs are bullish. Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, sugar, and corn are bearish. The rest are sideways [44][45][46] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Cotton yarn, soybeans, and cotton are likely to continue rising, while corn and corn starch may fall below support levels. Soybean meal and other sideways commodities are expected to trade within a range [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock indices is "oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets were divided, with developed markets strengthening while Chinese stock markets significantly declined with shrinking trading volume. The up - and - down market this week was a reaction to the escalation of tariff conflicts. Although US officials initially indicated that tariffs on China might not be imposed, subsequent hawkish statements from the US undermined the optimistic expectations. After the TACO trading, the stock market experienced a one - sided decline with trading volume shrinking below 2 trillion yuan. Looking ahead, it is recommended to be vigilant about the stock market. One should observe whether the trading volume continues to shrink and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session [2][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: Market liquidity is starting to decline. Pay attention to changes in the Fourth Plenary Session. Be vigilant about the stock market, observing trading volume changes and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session [10] - **This - week Key Events**: From October 13th to 17th, there were multiple events including Trump's hint of canceling new tariffs on China, China's export and import growth in September, policy issuances by the National Development and Reform Commission and the publication of relevant articles in "Qiushi" magazine, and international events such as the UK listing Chinese companies on the entity list [11][13][19] 2. One - Week Market Quotation Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From October 13th - 17th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 1.20%, with developed markets (+1.38%) > frontier markets (+0.55%) > emerging markets (-0.30%). South Korea's stock market led the world with a 4.01% increase, while Singapore's stock market had the worst performance with a 3.97% decline [23] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From October 13th - 17th, Chinese equity assets declined significantly. In terms of different markets, Chinese concept stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2193.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 410.3 billion yuan compared to last week. All A - share sectors declined, with the Shanghai 50 Index falling 0.24% (the best - performing) and the STAR 50 Index falling 6.16% (the worst - performing) [26] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was real estate (+2.97%), and the poorly - performing industry was finance (-0.37%). In the Chinese market, the finance industry led with a 1.91% increase, while the information technology industry lagged with a 6.7% decline [29] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: This week, among A - share CITIC primary industries, 4 rose (18 last week) and 26 fell (12 last week). The leading industry was the banking industry (+4.99%), and the industry with the largest decline was the electronics industry (-7.10%) [32] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The large - cap value style was dominant [36] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months are presented [39][42] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: Data on PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai 50 Index are provided [45] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Data on PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various primary industries such as the petroleum and petrochemical industry are provided [46] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [47][49] - **Broad - based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.37% and to 8.56% in 2026; that of the CSI 500 in 2025 was raised to 32.05% and to 17.92% in 2026; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 37.39% and raised to 20.92% in 2026 [52] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98.6, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [60] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 49.7 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 14.5 billion yuan compared to last week [62] - **Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs**: There were 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 210 million shares, that of those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 210 million shares, that of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 70 million shares, and that of those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.1 billion shares [65][66][69] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply Side**: Crude steel production contracted, with data on blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, and domestic crude steel daily average production presented [72][73][75] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, with data on the transaction area of first - hand and second - hand houses in large and medium - sized cities, land transaction area, and passenger car wholesale sales growth rate presented. The crude oil price dropped to around $61 per barrel [80][81][89] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices recovered, while the recovery of production material prices was weak [91][93]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly quantitative strategy report on stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, and commodity CTA strategies, covering market reviews, strategy performance tracking, and future strategy recommendations [4][56][71] 1. Stock Index Futures 1.1 Market Review - The market declined significantly last week. Electronics and power equipment contributed to the main decline in each index, while banks contributed to the main increase. The trading volume of each contract increased month - on - month, and the basis of each variety weakened significantly [4] 1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis weakened due to market sentiment. IH remained at a premium, IF at a shallow discount, and IC and IM at a deep discount. The current hedging demand in stock index futures is still mainly short - side. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to build a long - short spread arbitrage position when the discount narrows driven by market sentiment. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4] 1.3 Arbitrage Strategy - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: Last week, the performance of each strategy was differentiated. The annualized basis rate factor lost 0.6%, the long - short spread strategy gained 0.4%, and the momentum factor gained 0.8% (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor turned to a long - short spread signal [5] - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: The market style shifted to large - cap stocks. The net value of the inter - variety time - series synthetic strategy lost 0.6% last week. The latest signal of the inter - variety strategy recommends holding an empty position in IC/IF and a 50% long - IM and short - IC position [5] 1.4 Timing Strategy - The daily timing strategy was generally profitable last week. The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 gained 2.2%, lost 1.0%, gained 0.4%, and gained 2.0% respectively. The latest signal of the timing model is bullish on each index [6] 2. Treasury Bond Futures 2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - **Basis and Inter - period**: The IRR of Treasury bond futures declined this week, and the inter - period spread fluctuated strongly. Since the continuous decline of IRR has realized the long - short spread profit to a certain extent, the subsequent long - short spread space is relatively limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile operation [56] - **Interest Rate Timing and Hedging Signal**: The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, with strong bearish signals from the macro, production, inventory, and price factors. It is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging [56] - **Futures Timing Strategy**: The multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral. The main bullish factors are the basis factor and the high - frequency factor, while the main bearish factors are the spread factor and the volume - price factor [56] - **Futures Inter - variety Arbitrage Strategy**: The latest signal of the Treasury bond futures inter - variety arbitrage strategy TS - T is neutral, and the T - TL signal is also neutral [56] 3. Commodity CTA 3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Most commodity varieties in the market declined last week, with only a few varieties such as gold, silver, and polysilicon rising. Among the commodity factors, the volume - price trend factors and value factors performed prominently, while the spot - futures basis factors and warehouse receipt factors declined by more than 0.5%. The overall commodity trend may still be highly volatile due to external macro - factor disturbances. Compared with short - cycle strategies, medium - and long - cycle trend - following CTA strategies may face certain risks [71] 3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different strategies have different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.58, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81% [71]