1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Palm oil: Bullish [1] - Soybean oil: Bullish [1] - Rapeseed oil: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Most enterprises are bullish on the fourth - quarter to first - quarter (next year) oil market, mainly due to supply - side factors. However, some enterprises are cautious about the bullish view, considering factors such as high domestic inventory, low consumption, and potential imports [4][16]. - The key factors to watch include downstream consumption recovery, the crushing situation after Australian rapeseed arrives, and the purchase of US soybeans [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Background and Purpose - The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian bilateral trade situations are uncertain. As of now, there is no news of China purchasing US soybeans, and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has blocked its arrival from September to December. The supply of soy and rapeseed in the fourth quarter is not optimistic. The research aims to understand the current market situation, procurement, and import conditions [11]. 3.2. Research Summary Rapeseed oil - National rapeseed oil inventory is sufficient, with high pressure in inland areas like Sichuan and Chongqing. Most oil mills' rapeseed inventory is depleted, and some pressing lines are shut down. The de - stocking speed is slow, and the degree of de - stocking in the fourth quarter depends on consumption [14]. - Domestic rapeseed oil consumption is extremely poor, mainly for rigid demand. After the start of school and approaching festivals, consumption may improve [14]. Soybean oil - Spot - end soybean oil inventory is sufficient, and there will be a large amount of soybean arrivals in September and October. Some oil mills may shut down due to full - capacity of soybean meal. If no US soybeans are purchased this year, there may be a shortage from January to March next year. After the start of school, demand may improve [15]. 3.3. Market Outlook - Most enterprises are bullish on the oil market from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, as soybean and rapeseed oil will de - stock in the fourth quarter, and the shortage in the first quarter of next year is difficult to make up. However, some enterprises are cautious, considering factors such as imports of rapeseed oil and Australian rapeseed [16]. 3.4. Research Content August 19th Morning - Enterprise A - It is a trading enterprise mainly engaged in soybean and rapeseed oil trade. It purchases raw materials from nearby companies and oil mills [17]. - The sales area of Guangxi's rapeseed oil is mainly Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan. The enterprise is bullish on the 2025 soybean oil market, believes in focusing on macro news, and thinks rapeseed oil may be a strong variety in the fourth quarter [18][19]. August 19th Morning - Enterprise B - It is a trading enterprise mainly engaged in rapeseed meal and soybean meal trade, with a total annual trading volume of 120 - 130 tons [20]. - It mainly purchases rapeseed meal from domestic oil mills. The substitution between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is affected by price difference. Rapeseed meal demand is seasonal. The soybean meal market has sufficient supply. Key factors to watch include anti - dumping policies and Sino - US negotiations [21][23]. August 19th Afternoon - Enterprise C - It is mainly engaged in the trade of soybean, rapeseed, and cottonseed oil, with a trading volume of about 300,000 tons. It serves customers in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing [24]. - In the soybean oil market, supply was tight from February to April this year, and consumption was weak from June to August. In the rapeseed oil market, port inventory is low, and consumption is mostly replaced. If Sino - US negotiations fail, there may be a shortage of soybeans from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed pressing volume may decline [25][27]. August 20th Morning - Enterprise D - It has a daily rapeseed pressing capacity of 2000 tons and a daily refining capacity of 600 tons. It is currently short of rapeseed and may switch to soybean pressing. The de - stocking progress of rapeseed and soybean oil in the fourth quarter depends on domestic consumption [29][32]. August 20th Morning - Enterprise E - It has three pressing lines. It is currently pressing soybeans with a capacity utilization rate of 50 - 60%, and the rapeseed line is shut down. It is concerned about the import of Australian rapeseed. It does not think there will be a supply problem in the fourth quarter, but there may be a gap in March [34][36]. August 20th Afternoon - Enterprise F - Its daily pressing capacity is 11,000 tons. The soybean pressing line is fully operational, and the rapeseed line is shut down. It has three ships of new - season Australian rapeseed with uncertain plans. Rapeseed oil is mostly for rigid demand, and soybean oil is under less pressure. After the start of school, consumption will improve, but there is obvious consumption downgrading [37][39]. August 21st Morning - Enterprise G - Its daily soybean pressing capacity is 5000 tons, and it also has other production capacities. It mainly purchases Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. It expects a soybean supply gap in February - March next year and high soybean meal inventory after September [41][44]. August 21st Morning - Enterprise H - It is mainly engaged in oil packaging, with a planned annual capacity of 200,000 tons. The consumption in different regions has different preferences. This year's sales volume has decreased, and the downstream procurement is more cautious. Palm oil demand has decreased, and the overall oil demand is stable but lacks growth [46][49]. August 22nd Morning - Enterprise I - It has various production capacities, including peanut, wheat, and planned soybean pressing. It mainly purchases oil raw materials from domestic oil mills. It is bullish on the short - term oil market and expects soybean meal to be weak for a long time [50][54].

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hub Monitoring 20250826 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Department: Black and Shipping Department [1] - Analyst: Lan Xi [1] - Qualification Numbers: F03086543 (Practice Qualification), Z0016590 (Investment Consultation) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Shanghai and Ningbo ports' congestion has improved compared to the previous period, but the ship turnover time remains high; Port Klang's congestion shows signs of a rebound, and its persistence should be monitored; European ports' pressure continues to rise, especially Hamburg Port; North American ports are operating well [2] Summary by Directory Data Review - **Asian Ports**: - Yangshan Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 20.9 hours/25.6 hours, with the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed being 27/25. The average turnover time is about 1.9 days. - Waigaoqiao Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 13.6 hours/24.2 hours, with 28/27 container ships at anchor/berthed. - Ningbo Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 18.1 hours/25.7 hours, with 13/30 container ships at anchor/berthed. The average turnover time is about 2.0 days. - Qingdao Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 8.7 hours/34.3 hours. - Singapore Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 2.4 hours/32.6 hours, with 7/47 container ships at anchor/berthed. The average time in port is 1.5 days. - Port Klang: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 15.8 hours/28.3 hours, with 7/21 container ships at anchor/berthed. The average time in port is 1.8 days. - Yantian Port: The average turnover time is about 1.6 days [2] - **European Ports**: - Rotterdam Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 12.4 hours/44.6 hours, with 3/23 container ships at anchor/berthed. The average time in port is about 2.5 days. - Antwerp Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 10.1 hours/31.1 hours, with 2/13 container ships at anchor/berthed. The average time in port is about 1.5 days. - Hamburg Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 28.1 hours/54.8 hours, with 2/18 container ships at anchor/berthed. The average time in port is 3.7 days. - Bremen Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 5.9 hours/37.4 hours. The average time in port is 2.0 days. - Valencia Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 6.0 hours/36.1 hours, with 11/10 container ships at anchor/berthed [2] - **North American Ports**: - Long Beach Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 1.1 hours/113.7 hours, with 0/21 container ships at anchor/berthed. - Los Angeles Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 4.3 hours/113.4 hours, with 0/21 container ships at anchor/berthed. - Tacoma Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 0 hours/84.7 hours. - New York Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 0 hours/46.7 hours, with 0/11 container ships at anchor/berthed. - Savannah Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 15.9 hours/32.1 hours. - Norfolk Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 3.1 hours/23.6 hours. - Houston Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 10.0 hours/47.9 hours [2] Asian Ports Dynamic Tracking - Presents data on the scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some Southeast Asian and Chinese ports, and the average time in port, waiting time, and berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports [9][13][16] European Ports Dynamic Tracking - Shows data on the scale of container ships in port in Europe, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some Northwest European and Mediterranean ports, and the average time in port, waiting time, and berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports [19][22][25] North American Ports Dynamic Tracking - Displays data on the scale of container ships in port in North America, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some North American ports, and the average time in port, waiting time, and berthing time of ocean - going container ships in American container ports [36][41][38] Large - Ship Arrival Situation and Critical Hub Monitoring - Includes data on the arrival of large - scale container ships at Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port, the arrival of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean, and the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [47][50][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares continued their unilateral upward trend, with the liquor sector catching up, indicating market recognition of the market. Shanghai's real - estate policy adjustment sent a clear signal to support the real - estate market. The A - share trading volume reached 3.18 trillion yuan, the second - highest in history [2][23][26]. - In the bond market, although the expectation of loose monetary policy increased, caution was still recommended in the short term, and chasing high was not recommended [3][29]. - Steel prices oscillated. The increase in market risk appetite and strong coking coal prices supported steel prices, but there was still inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward movement [4][45]. - Zinc prices were expected to oscillate in the short term. Both domestic and overseas macro factors were positive, but the upward height of Shanghai zinc might be restricted by domestic fundamentals [5][74]. - PTA's short - term unilateral price was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Considering the forced cancellation of 09 warehouse receipts, a 10 - 1 long - short spread strategy could be attempted at low levels [6][84]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US President Trump considered renegotiating the US - South Korea agreement and increasing purchases from South Korea. US new home sales in July were 652,000 units, slightly higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slightly decreased. In the long term, the Fed's interest rate cut space was limited. The dollar rebounded, putting pressure on gold prices. It was recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term [13][14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Dallas Fed President Logan said the money market might face temporary pressure at the end of the quarter, but the Fed still had room to reduce the balance sheet. The meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders was not arranged, and the US dollar was expected to oscillate in the short term [16][18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The market became more cautious before NVIDIA's earnings report, but with the support of interest - rate cut expectations, the market risk appetite remained high. The stock index was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the near future [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share trading volume reached a historical second - high, and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies. It was recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [23][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 288.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. The bond market strengthened, but caution was still needed in the short term, and chasing high was not recommended [28][29][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in August increased year - on - year, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose. Domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased. Soybean meal futures prices were expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [31][32][35]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.89% year - on - year. It was recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the production recovery in Indonesia and Malaysia [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Pakistan's new cotton listing volume decreased year - on - year, and India's cotton planting area growth slowed. China issued 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas. Zhengzhou cotton was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, but the market was not optimistic during the peak new - cotton listing period in the fourth quarter [37][38][41]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai adjusted housing purchase restrictions. Steel prices oscillated. There was inventory accumulation pressure, and the release of terminal demand was expected to be slow. It was recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [42][45][46]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Coal exports from three ports in North Queensland decreased month - on - month in July. The daily coal consumption was at the end of the seasonal high, and coal prices entered a weak consolidation phase. It was expected that coal prices would oscillate between 650 - 700 yuan [47]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The central bank adjusted Shanghai's personal housing loan interest rate policy. Iron ore prices oscillated. Steel mills in the north reduced production, but the impact on raw materials was limited. It was recommended to wait and see [48][49]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch exports increased in July, but the over - capacity and weak - demand situation was expected to continue [50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices showed different trends. Futures oscillated around 2150. It was expected that the 2150 support level might be broken. It was recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the 11 - 3 reverse spread [50][52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Xinjiang's red - date producing areas entered the sugar - increasing stage. Futures prices oscillated. It was recommended to wait and see, paying attention to weather changes [53][54][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's photovoltaic cumulative installed capacity increased from January to July, but the single - month new - installed capacity in July decreased. The price of polysilicon was expected to be between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and was expected to reach over 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term [56][57][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Dongyue Silicon Materials' safety improvement project was filed. The inventory of industrial silicon was expected to change according to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price was expected to be between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The macro - environment was expected to be positive in the short term, but the nickel market was in a supply - surplus situation in the medium term. It was recommended to pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [61][62][63]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Pilbara Minerals' lithium concentrate production increased in the 2025 fiscal year. It was recommended to pay attention to buying on dips and long - short spread opportunities [64][65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Marimaca Copper planned to acquire a sulfuric acid plant to reduce costs. US scrap - copper traders redirected shipments to avoid Chinese tariffs. Copper prices were expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space was limited [66][67][69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and Henan restricted the entry of vehicles below the National V emission standard. Lead prices oscillated, and the supply - demand situation was weak. It was recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and Bolivia's zinc concentrate production decreased. Domestic zinc inventory increased. Zinc prices were expected to oscillate in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to medium - term long - short spread opportunities [73][74]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China was stable, and the CP recommended price was announced. The PG domestic price was expected to be slightly stronger before the sentiment was digested, and attention should be paid to narrowing the PG - FEI spread [75][76][77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory remained flat. The asphalt market was in a fragile state, and it was recommended to wait and see [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rose slightly. The short - term price was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and it was recommended to buy on dips [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices declined, and the market was quiet. The short - term price was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and a 10 - 1 long - short spread strategy could be attempted at low levels [82][84][85]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, and the downstream receiving sentiment was positive. The price was expected to be stable in the short term, and it was recommended to be cautious when chasing high [85][86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable. The pulp market was expected to oscillate [87][89]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly. The PVC market was expected to oscillate in the short term [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market was weak, and new orders were scarce. The 01 contract was expected to oscillate in the short - to - medium term [92][93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable. Attention should be paid to the pressure on processing fees caused by device restart and new - capacity release [93][94]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increased. Styrene was expected to be slightly stronger in September but might face inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy variables [95][96][97]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk planned to invest $1 billion to develop Indian ports. The container freight rate was expected to continue to decline, and the 10 - contract was expected to test the support level of 1300 [98][99][100].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the European Line shipping market, covering aspects such as loading rates, ship capacity, schedules, delays, and port congestion. It shows that the loading rates vary between China and Asia departures, with supply pressures fluctuating over different weeks. Ship schedule adjustments and delays are common, and port congestion persists in different regions, which may impact the shipping market's operation and performance. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. European Line Loading Rate Tracking - W34 European Line fleet's average loading rate for China departures was 90.6%, almost unchanged from the previous period (90.7%). W33 Asian departures had a loading rate of 97.3%, down 0.9% from the previous period. The loading difference between Asia and China was about 6.7%, at a historical high [5][7]. - OA's China departure loading rate was 91.6%, up 1.7% from the previous low but still in a low - stage range. PA and MSC's China departure loading rate was 93.4%, with a significant improvement. Gemini's China departure loading rate was 87.1%, down 3.6% [7]. 3.2. European Line Ship Schedules and Capacity - In September, the monthly average weekly capacity was 30.7 million TEU, with 2 TBN remaining. W36 - 37 average was 27.5 million TEU, and W37 was only 23.7 million TEU, with supply pressure significantly relieved. In the second half - month (W38 - 39), the average was 34.0 million TEU, with a surplus [11]. - In October, the monthly average weekly capacity was 26.9 million TEU, with 5 TBN remaining, slightly higher than March and similar to last year's level. However, the first half - month still had a supply surplus [11]. - Some routes had ship adjustments, such as FAL1 adding a ship in W37, and several routes having ship replacements [11]. 3.3. Ship Schedule Delays and Spot Overview - In W33, 5 ship schedules were delayed to the same week, with the delay situation similar to the previous week. The SCFIS (European Line) index closed at 1990.20 points, down 8.7% [15]. - The actual departure capacity of the Shanghai Port on the European Line in W33 was 26.7 million TEU, of which 26% was from the delayed schedules of W32 [15]. 3.4. Ship Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - Multiple ships from different alliances had schedule delays, with different delay days and rescheduled weeks. For example, in some weeks, ships from Gemini, OA, and MSC&PA were delayed for various periods and redirected to different weeks [17][19][23]. - Different alliances had early - warning routes. For instance, Gemini had early - warning routes like AE1, AE3, etc.; OA had FAL1, FAL3, etc.; and MSC&PA had FE4, FE6, etc. [26][28][30]. 3.5. Related Port Congestion Data - In China, Yangshan Port's average turnover time was about 1.9 days, Ningbo Port about 2.0 days, and Yantian Port about 1.6 days. Shanghai and Ningbo Ports' congestion improved but turnover times were still high [34]. - In Southeast Asia, Port Klang showed signs of congestion rebound. Singapore Port's average ship stay time was 1.5 days, and Port Klang's was 1.8 days [34]. - In Europe, problems such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction, and low Rhine water levels persisted, increasing port pressure, especially in Hamburg Port [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction in the offset printing paper (double - offset paper) industry is prominent, and the industry's pessimistic sentiment is strong. The price of double - offset paper may have further room to decline [5][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Purpose - On August 15, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which will be launched on September 10, 2025. In the current market environment, the research aims to understand how different links in the industrial chain view the listing of double - offset paper futures, their participation willingness, and their expectations for the future market of double - offset paper, helping investors gain insights and investment ideas [13]. 3.2. Research Core Conclusions - **Cost difference**: The production cost of double - offset paper varies greatly among different manufacturers and product qualities. The main raw material is wood pulp, accounting for about 70%. Due to profit pressure, enterprises increase the proportion of chemimechanical pulp. The production cash cost of current natural white double - offset paper is about 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton, and most enterprises can maintain a certain gross profit [14]. - **Demand shift**: The demand for paper in publishing orders has shifted backward this year. Factors such as improved printing efficiency, high inventory levels, and pessimistic market expectations have led to a delay in the start of autumn publishing tenders to mid - late April, and concentrated printing of autumn textbooks from July to August [16]. - **Supply - demand and profit**: The industry generally recognizes the over - supply and profit pressure. In the long - term, factors like a decrease in school - age population, the "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy, and the popularity of electronic reading will reduce demand, while new production capacity is being added. In the short - term, prices may rebound slightly during the spring publishing tender season from October to November [18]. - **Divergent attitudes**: Different industrial players have different attitudes towards the listing of offset printing paper futures. Some large - scale paper mills will actively respond, while small and medium - sized paper mills are more cautious. Downstream enterprises are relatively conservative, and the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery is expected to be weak [22][24]. 3.3. Detailed Research Situation - **Double - offset paper production enterprise A**: Located in Henan, with a total pulp and paper production capacity of 110 - 120 tons/year. The production line was fully loaded in the first half of the year. The pulp ratio is 1/3 each for broad - leaf, coniferous, and chemimechanical pulp, with a self - supply rate of about 40% - 50%. Downstream orders are mainly for social printing. The long - term view is that prices will decline, but the short - term price may rebound in October - November [25][27][30]. - **Double - offset paper trading enterprise B**: Based in Henan, with a trading volume of about 40,000 tons this year. It purchases through long - term supply agreements. It believes that the "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has reduced the demand for private books, and it generally does not stock up [31][32][34]. - **Double - offset paper production enterprise C**: A Henan pulp and paper enterprise with a cultural paper production capacity of 180,000 tons/year. The starting rate in the first half of the year was about 80%. It uses coniferous and chemimechanical pulp, with self - sufficient chemimechanical pulp. Downstream orders are mainly for publishing. In the long - term, prices may fall below the cost line [36][37][42]. - **Double - offset paper production enterprise D**: A Shandong pulp and paper enterprise with a cultural paper production capacity of 500,000 tons/year. The production line was fully operational in the first half of the year. The proportion of chemimechanical pulp varies by product. Downstream customers are mainly dealers. In the long - term, demand will decline, but textbook revisions may bring short - term demand growth [43][44][49]. - **Double - offset paper production enterprise E**: A Shandong paper mill with a cultural paper production capacity of 200,000 tons/year. The capacity utilization rate is about 90%, and it stopped production in August for equipment transformation. It mainly uses external high - quality wood pulp. Downstream orders are mainly for social printing. In the next two years, the market is expected to be difficult, and the current price may fall further [50][51][55]. - **Material printing and publishing enterprise F**: A Shandong group with a paper and pulp trading volume of about 200,000 tons each. It purchases through competitive negotiations. Orders are mainly for publishing, and the "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has increased publishing orders. It hopes for stable paper prices [56][57][60]. 3.4. Investment Suggestions - Due to the prominent supply - demand contradiction in the double - offset paper industry and the strong pessimistic sentiment, enterprises may adjust the pulp ratio to reduce costs, which may lead to a decline in product quality rather than capacity optimization. Therefore, the price of double - offset paper may further decline [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current low inventory in the photovoltaic glass industry provides good support for price increases [8][3]. - With the increase in photovoltaic glass prices, the industry's profit has recently rebounded [2][28]. - After the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax - rebate for components, there is a significant risk of a sharp decline in the shipment of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [8][22]. Summary by Directory 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the industry's supply remained stable with no changes in blocked - kiln capacity. Recently, some enterprises have resumed kiln production due to downstream increased inventory - building influenced by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the market's September price - increase news [8][12]. - **Demand**: Affected by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the September price - increase news, downstream inventory - building continues. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in terminal power stations, there is a risk of a sharp decline in the shipment of photovoltaic glass manufacturers after the policy implementation [8][22]. - **Inventory**: Downstream inventory - building has led to a continuous decline in the inventory of many photovoltaic glass manufacturers, and the inventory of some enterprises is less than a week [8][25]. 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of August 22, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 11 yuan/square meter, flat compared with last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 18 yuan/square meter, also flat compared with last week. In August, the price was mainly driven by industry internal meetings, and the price - support efforts of glass groups were effective [9]. 2.2 Supply - side - The industry's supply remained stable last week with no changes in blocked - kiln capacity. Some enterprises resumed kiln production due to downstream increased inventory - building influenced by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the market's September price - increase news [12]. 2.3 Demand - side - Affected by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the September price - increase news, downstream inventory - building continues. There is a risk of a sharp decline in the shipment of photovoltaic glass manufacturers after the policy implementation due to the lack of substantial improvement in terminal power stations [22]. 2.4 Inventory - side - Downstream inventory - building has led to a continuous decline in the inventory of many photovoltaic glass manufacturers, and the inventory of some enterprises is less than a week [25]. 2.5 Cost - profit side - With the increase in photovoltaic glass prices, the industry's profit has recently rebounded [28]. 2.6 Trade - side - From January to June 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 9.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Sideways with a downward bias [32] - US Dollar: Bearish [32] - US Stocks: Sideways with an upward bias [32] - A-Shares: Sideways [32] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways with a downward bias [32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is centered around interest rate cut trading. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium signals a possible September rate cut, but the medium - term rate cut space is limited due to the resilience of the US economy and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. Although the macro - fundamentals have limited recovery, the stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and risk appetite is expected to remain high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The market speculated on interest rate cut trading this week. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium emphasized the increasing downside risks in the employment market and the short - term nature of tariff - induced inflation, signaling a September rate cut. However, the medium - term rate cut space is restricted by the US economic resilience and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. The stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and overseas liquidity easing signals are expected to support domestic risk appetite [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Most global stock markets rose this week. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.5%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index fell 2.3% [9][10]. - Most countries in the MSCI Global Index recorded gains. The expectation of interest rate cuts boosted global market risk appetite, with developed markets > global > frontier > emerging markets [10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The US Dollar Index continued to decline, depreciating 0.12% to 97.7. Most currencies appreciated slightly against the US dollar. The RMB exchange - rate index remained unchanged, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated, and the off - shore RMB against the US dollar appreciated 0.25% [12][14]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major countries fluctuated, with emerging markets seeing larger increases. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield fell 7bp to 4.26%, the Japanese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.62%, and the German government bond yield fell 6bp. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.78%, the Brazilian government bond yield rose 27bp, the Indian government bond yield rose 15bp, and the Vietnamese government bond yield rose 11bp [19][23]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market showed marginal improvement this week, with the spot index performing weakly. Crude oil rose 1% to $63.8 per barrel. The metal and precious - metal sectors were boosted by the expectation of interest rate cuts, with LME copper rising 0.37%, LME aluminum rising 0.73%, COMEX gold rising 1%, and silver rising 2.26%. The agricultural - product sector was strong, with soybeans and corn rising 1.5%. The domestic commodity market weakened, with rebar falling 2.2% and iron ore falling 0.8% [29]. 3.3 Asset Class Weekly Outlook 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market has priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. In the short term, gold prices will continue to trade in a range and lack the momentum to break through [33]. - The real interest rate has fallen to 1.85%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has stopped falling and rebounded. The US Treasury yield curve is steepening, which suppresses gold prices. The US Dollar Index fell, the RMB rose, and Shanghai gold continued to trade at a discount [41]. - Comex gold futures' speculative net - long positions decreased slightly, and SPDR Gold ETF holdings flowed out slightly. Shanghai gold's positions declined, and its inventory increased. Silver rose slightly, outperforming gold, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 88 [46]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was extremely dovish, shifting the Fed's policy focus to unemployment. The market expects the Fed to accelerate rate cuts in September, and the US Dollar Index is expected to trend downward [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - At the beginning of the week, the technology sector corrected due to the expected hawkish stance of Powell. However, after his dovish speech on Friday, the market risk appetite recovered. The interest rate cut expectation is expected to support the US stock market to trade sideways with an upward bias in the near term. Attention should be paid to NVIDIA's earnings report and July PCE data next week [52]. - In terms of sectors, energy, real estate, finance, and materials rose more than 2%. Only the information technology and communication sectors fell. The Q2 earnings of US stocks were strong, with 81% of companies exceeding expectations, and the profit growth rate reached 11.6%. Institutional investors' positions increased, and the volatility index remained at a low level [63]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, 30 out of 30 A - share industries in the CITIC primary - industry classification rose, with the communication industry leading the gain (+10.47%) and the real - estate industry lagging (+0.98%). The Shanghai Composite Index broke through historical highs, and the trading volume reached an average of 2.5 trillion yuan per day. The "bull - market expectation" has gained consensus, and the stock market is less sensitive to fundamental pressures in the short term [64][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Next week, the bond market is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, as it is in a data and policy vacuum, and the bond market's performance will be dominated by the money - market and equity - market conditions. The central bank is committed to maintaining market liquidity, but the money - market may tighten marginally during tax - payment and month - end periods. The expectation of interest rate cuts is more favorable for the stock market [77]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The GDPNow model's estimate of Q3 GDP growth has fallen to 2.26%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales has rebounded to 5.9%. The crude - oil price has rebounded slightly, and the market's inflation expectation has remained stable. The initial jobless claims reached 235,000, and the continued jobless claims fell to 1.972 million, indicating a weakening labor market [90][99]. - The bank's reserve balance remained at $3.3 trillion, the TGA account balance rebounded slightly to $526.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale rebounded to $36.3 billion. The market liquidity remained stable. The volatility index fell to a low for the year, and the corporate bond spread remained low. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the market has priced in a rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year [106]. - In July, the US CPI rose slightly, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI rose significantly, with the core PPI rising 3.7% year - on - year. Service inflation has rebounded, indicating strong core - inflation stickiness [113]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remained weak, and the effectiveness of the policies proposed by the State Council to stabilize the real - estate market needs to be monitored [114]. - As of August 22, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.48%, 1.47%, 1.42%, and 1.46% respectively, with changes of - 1.91bp, - 3.67bp, + 2.00bp, and - 0.20bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.13 trillion yuan, 1.02 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight - trading proportion was 87.75%, slightly lower than the previous week [130]. - In July, the economic data generally weakened, especially domestic demand. The private - sector's self - repair ability was insufficient, and the policy focus was on structural adjustment. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6%, and the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, social retail sales, and other indicators declined [131]. - In July, the financial data showed a divergence. The M1 and M2 growth rates exceeded market expectations, while the new - credit data was weak. The policy has started to support the demand side, but the effect may not be significant in the short term. The M1 growth rate is expected to peak in September [135]. - In July, the PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, and the CPI was 0.0% year - on - year. The terminal demand remained weak, and the price increase of commodities due to the "anti - cut - throat competition" policy has not been transmitted to the downstream [150]. - In July, the export growth rate was 7.2%, and the import growth rate was 4.1%, both exceeding expectations. However, the sustainability of the export growth is questionable, and the import growth depends on the recovery of domestic demand [160].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Global central bank meeting, Powell's dovish speech, market's Fed rate - cut expectation heats up, boosting risk appetite and affecting multiple asset prices [13][17][58] - Multiple commodities are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events, showing different trends and investment opportunities [26][32][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and Powell hints at a September rate cut [12][13] - Gold price rose about 1% on Friday. Market priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. But current positives can't break gold out of the consolidation [13] - Investment advice: Gold price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Iran's supreme leader rules out direct talks with the US, and the US vice - president says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [15][16] - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting is dovish. The Fed's policy focus shifts to the labor market, and the US dollar index trends weaker [17] - Investment advice: The US dollar trends weaker [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell signals a rate cut, and Canada cancels some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [19][20] - Market sentiment turns cautious initially, then risk appetite recovers after Powell's dovish speech. US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [21] - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to rate - cut expectations. Pay attention to Nvidia's earnings report and July PCE data next week [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Chinese leaders attend the SCO Summit - related events, and the State Council studies measures to release sports consumption potential [22][23] - A - shares are strong with increasing trading volume, showing a short - term bullish pattern. But beware of the test of mid - year reports [24] - Investment advice: Suggest balanced long positions in stock index futures [25] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity is 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [26] - Coal price ends its rising trend and enters a weak consolidation. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan in the future [26][27] - Investment advice: Coal price may decline slightly with the season. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan [27] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Guangxi acquires 20,000 existing commercial housing units [28] - Iron ore price continues to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are slightly weak, and the market sentiment is divided. It is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern [28][29] - Investment advice: Iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The downside is limited, and it is expected to remain in a consolidation pattern [29] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The WTO supports Indonesia in the biodiesel tariff dispute, and the Trump administration makes decisions on SRE applications [30][31] - The negative impact of SRE is less than expected, and US soybean oil price rebounds. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate [32] - Investment advice: After last week's adjustment, US biofuel policies drive up US soybean oil price. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate, with palm oil having the largest increase [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton mills destock, Brazil's cotton exports reach a record high, and US cotton export contracts are poor [33][34][35] - US cotton export contracts are still weak, and ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [35][36] - Investment advice: ICE cotton price has limited upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Pay continuous attention to demand [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory decreases, a large - scale sugar shipment is made to China, and sugar production estimates are lowered [37][38][40] - International sugar production may be lower than expected, supporting sugar price. Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be long - entry opportunities on dips [41][42] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar price has limited downside and is expected to fluctuate. Wait for long - entry opportunities on dips for the January contract [42] 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel mills' iron - making capacity utilization and iron - water output are at a certain level, and the automobile industry's inventory decreases [43][44] - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory, and steel price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to actual demand release in mid - to late September [44][45] - Investment advice: Steel price fluctuates. Wait for market dips [46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Pro Farmer predicts US soybean yield [47][48] - CBOT soybean price rises due to demand. China's soybean imports in Q4 to next Q1 affect soybean meal supply. Long positions on dips are recommended [49] - Investment advice: Long soybean meal on dips but don't chase highs. Pay continuous attention to Sino - US relations [49] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Cassava starch port inventory decreases slightly, and the price difference with corn starch widens slightly [50][51] - Corn starch inventory pressure is high, and the CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [51][52][53] - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [53] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn price in North China is weakening, and the market is bearish as new grain approaches [54] - Corn futures price may fluctuate widely around 2150. Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads [54] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads. Pay attention to weather and policies [54] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore plans to produce 1 million tons of copper in Argentina, and Freeport Indonesia will accelerate copper concentrate exports [55][56] - Powell's dovish speech supports copper price. Copper price is expected to turn to a fluctuating - strong pattern in the short - term [58][59] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term long - biased strategy for copper futures. Take profits on domestic - foreign reverse spreads and turn to observation [59] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The "capacity clearance" document is confirmed, and a phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry meeting is held [60] - Short - term de - stocking provides support, and there are opportunities for long positions on dips and positive spreads [61] - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips and positive spreads [61] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry advocates fair competition, and Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic module procurement is bid [62][64] - Component prices are expected to rise, driving up upstream prices. Polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term [65][66] - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for polysilicon futures. Consider 11 - 12 reverse spreads around - 2000 yuan/ton [66] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of industrial silicon's main production areas increases [67] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are slightly weakening. Its price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM signs a strategic cooperation agreement with Weilan Lithium [69] - Powell's dovish speech may boost nickel price in the short - term. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs [70][71] - Investment advice: Short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs for nickel [71] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead shows a discount, and lead's supply - demand is weak [72] - Lead price has cost support, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [72][73] - Investment advice: Observe in the short - term for lead [73] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc shows a discount, and a Peruvian zinc mine resumes operation [74] - Zinc price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] - Investment advice: Observe for zinc in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EUA's closing price is 72.53 euros/ton, and carbon price is affected by energy and geopolitics [76] - EU carbon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [76][77] - Investment advice: EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count decreases [78] - Oil price rises slightly and is expected to fluctuate in a range, waiting for new drivers [78][79] - Investment advice: Oil price will fluctuate in a range in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [79] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [80][81] - Caustic soda price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] - Investment advice: The 9.3 military parade may disrupt supply. The spot price may have limited upside. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of pulp in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [82][84] - Pulp price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85] - Investment advice: Pulp price will fluctuate in the short - term [85] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC powder price is narrowly sorted, with weak downstream procurement and some good export orders [86] - PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] - Investment advice: PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export quotes change little, and domestic prices increase [88][89] - Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Its price follows polyester raw materials [89] - Investment advice: Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Pay attention to the pressure from device restart and new capacity [89] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash market in Shahe fluctuates, with prices slightly rising and stable basis [90] - Soda ash price rises slightly, with stable fundamentals. Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs [90] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs for soda ash. Pay attention to supply disturbances [90] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass price in Shahe is stable, with different factory shipment situations [91] - Glass price rises slightly. Be cautious with single - side operations and focus on arbitrage [92] - Investment advice: Be cautious with single - side operations for float glass. Focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy when the spread widens [92] 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A shipping company halts a new - shipbuilding plan due to high costs [93] - SCFI index declines. Container freight rate is expected to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Look for short - entry opportunities on highs [93][94] - Investment advice: Look for short - entry opportunities on highs for container freight rate futures. The October contract tests the 1300 support level [94]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the activity, price changes, market volatility, and sentiment of the commodity options market in the 34th week of 2025 (August 18 - August 22). It suggests investors focus on trading opportunities in actively traded varieties and provides insights on potential risks and opportunities based on price movements and volatility [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - Market activity declined compared to last week, with average daily trading volume at 6.46 million lots and average daily open interest at 7.32 million lots, down 26.6% and 28.23% respectively [1][6]. - Actively traded varieties included soda ash (590,000 lots), glass (510,000 lots), and palm oil (400,000 lots) [1][6]. - Three varieties saw trading volume growth of over 100%, with p-xylene (+1327%), synthetic rubber (+125%), and staple fiber (+122%) showing significant increases [1][6]. - Varieties with significant trading volume declines were rapeseed meal (-85%), rapeseed oil (-85%), and soybean oil (-72%) [1][6]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were rebar (630,000 lots), soda ash (620,000 lots), and soybean meal (600,000 lots) [1][6]. - Varieties with rapid open interest growth were p-xylene (+188%), synthetic rubber (+77%), and polysilicon (+50%) [1][6]. 2. This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: Most commodity option underlying futures declined, with 37 varieties closing lower for the week. High weekly gainers included caustic soda (+4.26%), p-xylene (+4.16%), and staple fiber (+3.34%); high weekly losers were lithium carbonate (-9.14%), soda ash (-4.95%), and ferrosilicon (-9.14%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: The implied volatility of some commodity options declined weekly, with 39 varieties having current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties at historical highs included polysilicon, eggs, and industrial silicon; those at historical lows included the agricultural products sector and non-ferrous metals [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: Varieties such as lithium carbonate and soybean meal had high volume PCRs, indicating strong short-term bearish sentiment. Varieties like ethylene glycol, styrene, aluminum, and PTA had low volume PCRs, showing concentrated short-term bullish sentiment. Lithium carbonate, polysilicon, caustic soda, and soda ash had high open interest PCRs, suggesting high bearish sentiment; while styrene, ethylene glycol, nickel, and plastic had low open interest PCRs, indicating bullish sentiment accumulation [2][15]. 3. Key Data Overview of Major Varieties This chapter presents key data on major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Data on crude oil, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR, are presented through various charts [20][22][23]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR are presented through charts [26][27][29]. - **Caustic Soda**: Similar data are presented for caustic soda [35][36][38]. - **Glass**: Data on glass are presented in a similar manner [42][43][44]. - **Soda Ash**: Data on soda ash are presented through charts [48][49][52]. - **Precious Metals**: Data on silver, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR, are presented through charts [54][55][56]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Data on iron ore are presented through charts [62][63][66]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar data are presented for silicomanganese [70][71][72]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Data on copper are presented through charts [77][78][84]. - **Alumina**: Data on alumina are presented in a similar manner [93][88][90]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Data on soybean meal are presented through charts [94][96][98]. - **Palm Oil**: Similar data are presented for palm oil [102][110][103]. - **Cotton**: Data on cotton are presented through charts [111][112][113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry Silicon: Oscillation / Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Although the fundamentals of industrial silicon are weakening marginally, the short - term price may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and investors should pay attention to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, the price may run between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. The strategy is to be bullish on pullbacks, and consider 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunities around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][16] - The government's policy of regulating the photovoltaic industry competition order has an impact on the price of polysilicon and its upstream and downstream products. Although the component price has increased, the terminal demand is not optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be incremental policies [2][12][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon: The Si2511 contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,745 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,450 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract decreased by 1,335 yuan/ton to 51,405 yuan/ton week - on - week. The transaction price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 500 yuan/ton to 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories Gradually Resume Production, and Component Bidding Prices Increase - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract oscillated this week. Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan added 8, 3, and 2 furnaces respectively, Inner Mongolia added 1, and Gansu reduced 1. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.40 tons. The eastern base of a large factory in Xinjiang resumed 8 furnaces this week with further plans, but the implementation needs to be observed. Southern production has reached its peak with no obvious increase in the future. Downstream maintains just - in - time procurement. It is estimated that the inventory of industrial silicon will decrease by about 10,000 tons in August. If the large factory's operation remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and decrease by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. However, if the large factory fully resumes production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [10] - **Organic Silicon**: The price oscillated downward this week. The third - phase device of Tangshan Sanyou stopped, and the device in Hoshine's Sichuan area resumed production. The overall enterprise operating rate was 76.03%, with a weekly output of 50,300 tons, a decrease of 2.14% week - on - week. The inventory was 48,800 tons, an increase of 0.62% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract oscillated this week. Six ministries jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, and on Friday, Huadian's 20GW component centralized procurement bid opened, with component prices rising significantly, driving up upstream prices. The bid price of second - tier enterprises' dense material increased to 48 yuan/kg, and that of first - tier enterprises increased to 50 - 53 yuan/kg. To maintain prices, production and sales control in the polysilicon segment are necessary. The production in August was between 125,000 - 130,000 tons. The production in September is highly uncertain, with a pessimistic estimate of up to 140,000 tons and an optimistic estimate of 120,000 tons, still in surplus [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The quotation increased this week. After the symposium, the association gave a new guidance price for silicon wafers on the 20th afternoon. Silicon wafer enterprises adjusted their quotes to the guidance price, with M10/G12R/G12 models rising to 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece. As of August 21, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 17.41GW, a decrease of 2.39GW. The production schedule in August was 53GW, and it is expected to be flat in September [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 models were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt. As of August 18, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.81GW, an increase of 0.83GW. The domestic production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August was about 58GW. Some battery enterprises showed an intention to raise prices, with an expected increase to over 0.3 yuan/watt [13] - **Components**: The price oscillated this week. New orders were few, mainly fulfilling previous orders. The delivery price of centralized projects was between 0.62 - 0.68 yuan/watt, and the distributed spot price was stagnant, with a small amount of transactions above 0.7 yuan/watt. After the symposium, component prices are expected to rise. Huadian's 20GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement bid opened, with an average price of 0.71 yuan/watt for the first - stage bid, which is lower than expected but can cover the cost. With policy support, the component bidding price is expected to exceed 0.7 yuan/watt, but the terminal demand is not optimistic [14] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang. Although the fundamentals are weakening, the price may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short term due to the expectation of US interest rate cuts and the "anti - involution" of the domestic photovoltaic industry chain. Look for range - trading opportunities [3][16] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is strongly supported by the spot transaction price of leading enterprises. In the short term, the price may run between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton and is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. Be bullish on pullbacks and consider 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunities around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][16] 3.4 Hot News - On August 22, Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement bid opened, with an average price of 0.71 yuan/W for the first - stage bid and 0.746 yuan/W for the second - stage bid [17] - The photovoltaic industry issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and maintain a fair competition market order [17] - On August 19, six ministries jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the competition order, including strengthening industrial regulation, curbing low - price competition, standardizing product quality, and supporting industry self - discipline [18] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on prices, production, and inventory such as the price of oxygen - blown 553 and 99 silicon, weekly production in different regions, and social and factory inventories [8][9][10] - **Organic Silicon**: Covers data on the price, profit, inventory, and production of DMC [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [13] - **Battery Cells**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise production [13] - **Components**: Involves data on spot prices, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [14]