Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), lithium salt prices first rose and then fell. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased by 8.9% and 9.1% respectively, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise [2][11]. - In July, China imported about 64,100 tons of lithium spodumene equivalent to LCE, a 32% increase from the previous month and a 10% increase from the same period last year. The domestic lithium ore inventory days have declined from the high but are still moderately high, about 4 months [2][14]. - The sharp decline in the futures market last week may be due to the forced liquidation of some high - leverage funds. The impact of increased imports on short - term supply - demand balance is limited. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can provide bottom support, and downstream buying increased after the price correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads [3][14][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply Disturbance Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Gradually Released - Lithium salt prices fluctuated last week. Futures prices decreased, while spot prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][11]. - In July, China's lithium spodumene imports increased significantly. The domestic lithium ore inventory is still at a moderately high level [2][14]. - The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can support prices, and downstream buying is strong. Supply uncertainty remains, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips and positive spread opportunities [3][14][15]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Yichun Yinli of Jiangte Motor will resume production soon [16]. - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased by 42.67% year - on - year, with significant declines from major suppliers such as Chile and Argentina [16]. - Premier African Minerals' Zulu lithium project has achieved a major breakthrough, producing marketable lithium spodumene concentrate and entering the refining optimization stage [16]. - A closed - door meeting on the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen to discuss solutions to over - capacity [17]. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Declined - The spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, with the average price dropping from $940/ton to $934/ton, a 0.6% decline [12]. 3.2 Lithium Salt: Futures Prices Rose and Then Fell - Futures prices of lithium carbonate decreased, with LC2509 down 8.9% and LC2511 down 9.1%. Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5% [2][11][12]. 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium all showed a slight upward trend [12]. 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China increased slightly in July, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a certain growth rate [44][48][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and price wars are gradually ending. Overseas markets face trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, so attention should be paid to new growth points such as Belt and Road countries and the Middle East. Domestic independent brands' market share continues to expand, and companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply should be focused on [3][114]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - It presents the one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies. For example, BYD's closing price on August 22 was 110.66 yuan, with a one - week increase of 4.33% [13][17]. 3.2.1 China's New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - China Market Sales and Exports - Relevant charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, domestic sales, and exports of China's new energy vehicles [18][23]. 3.2.1 China's New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - China Market Inventory Changes - The charts display the monthly new inventory of new energy passenger vehicles in channels and manufacturers [26][27]. 3.2.1 China's New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - China's New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers' Deliveries - Charts show the monthly delivery volumes of various domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO [30][34]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - Global Market - Relevant charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in the global new energy vehicle market [42][45]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - European Market - Charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in the European new energy vehicle market, as well as the sales volume of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France [48][57]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - North American Market - Charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in the North American new energy vehicle market [61][62]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - Other Regions - Charts show the sales volume, penetration rate, and sales volume of EV and PHV in other regions, including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand [64][74]. 3.2.3 Battery Power Chain - Charts show the battery loading volume, export volume, weekly average price of battery cells, cell material cost, and the prices and operating rates of various battery materials [78][97]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Charts show the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum [100][104]. 3.3.1 Hot News Summary - China: Policy Dynamics - The three - department joint release of the "Interim Measures for the Total Quantity Regulation and Management of Rare Earth Mining and Rare Earth Smelting and Separation" strengthens the total quantity regulation of rare earths. From January to July in Chengdu, the production of new energy vehicles increased by over 300% [106]. 3.3.2 Hot News Summary - China: Industry Dynamics - The Passenger Car Association expects 1.94 million passenger vehicle retail sales and 1.1 million new energy retail sales in August. From August 1 - 17, new energy retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 18% year - on - year [106][107]. 3.3.3 Hot News Summary - China: Enterprise Dynamics - Tesla China launched the Model Y L, a six - seat pure - electric SUV, with a starting price of 339,000 yuan and expected delivery in September. Dongfeng Group will delist, and Voyah will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [108][109]. 3.3.4 Hot News Summary - Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - Great Wall Motors' Brazilian factory opened, with an initial annual production capacity of 50,000 vehicles. BlueOval SK's first factory in Kentucky started delivering battery cells [110][111]. 3.4 Industry Views - The domestic market has faced high - base pressure since August, but the market has maintained stable growth. There is a trend of more refined subsidy regulation and diversified subsidy methods. Overseas, North American new energy vehicle sales increased in July, mainly due to the pre - sales caused by the upcoming end of the electric vehicle tax credit policy. Europe has launched a new round of subsidy measures, which are expected to drive the electric vehicle market [111][113]. 3.5 Investment Advice - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate has reached a high level, and high - competitiveness new products are continuously emerging. Attention should be paid to new overseas growth points and domestic independent brand companies with strong comprehensive strength [3][114].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech at the central bank annual meeting changed market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. The Fed may accelerate the interest - rate cut in September, and the US dollar index will trend downward [33][34] - The geopolitical situation is evolving towards marginal easing, but the Russia - Ukraine negotiation is difficult to reach an agreement in the short term [2][11][13] - The Fed's internal differences are large, and the Trump administration's intervention in the Fed is increasing. Next year, the dovish lineup of the Fed will increase, and monetary policy will enter a new easing stage [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The yield of US Treasury bonds dropped to 4.25%. The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 97.7, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Gold prices rose 1.1% to $3371 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 14.2, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $68.3 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets rose. The S&P 500 index rose 0.27%, most European stock markets closed up, most emerging - market stock markets rose, the Shanghai Composite Index soared 3.49%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.72% [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.25%. Most euro - zone government bond yields declined, and emerging - market bond yields showed mixed performance. The yield curve of US Treasury bonds became steeper, and the yield of Japanese government bonds continued to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rose to 1.787%, and the inversion of the China - US interest - rate spread decreased to 246bp [14][17][19][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 97.7, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB rose 0.23%, the euro rose 0.13%, the pound fell 0.2%, the yen rose 0.17%, the Swiss franc rose 0.66%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, real, and Thai baht depreciated, while the peso, Korean won, and rand appreciated [24][25][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3371 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $68.3 per barrel. The VIX index dropped to 14.2, and the spot commodity index closed down. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and oil prices are difficult to rise continuously [28][29] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting was unexpectedly dovish. The Fed's policy focus may shift to the unemployment rate, and the US dollar index will trend downward [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US new home sales in July, UK market closed for one day - Tuesday: US housing price index in June, durable goods orders in July, and Conference Board consumer confidence index in August - Wednesday: Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index in September - Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week, revised Q2 GDP, and ECB interest - rate meeting minutes - Friday: US core PCE in July [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply is generally stable as Shunda is preparing for复产, but the spot price of alumina declined last week. The domestic alumina market is slightly oversupplied, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weak trend [1][2][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The transportation restrictions in northern regions due to the parade and the seasonal constraints in the south supported the ore prices. The impact of mine shutdowns and the rainy season in Guinea on the spot market is gradually emerging. Shunda is preparing for复产, and 4.054 million tons of new ore arrived during the period [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The trading atmosphere was light, and the import window was not fully opened. The industry profit is acceptable, leading to an increased willingness of enterprises to operate at full capacity. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 250,000 tons compared to last week, with an operating rate of 83.5% [2][12] - **Demand**: The domestic demand for alumina increased, with the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises rising. The overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was more stable, while the inventory of some local alumina enterprises increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 26,075 tons compared to last week. The domestic futures price continued to show a weak trend [14] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 30,000 tons of alumina were traded overseas on August 21, with the destination being Malaysia, and the CIF price was $386 per ton [15] - In July 2025, China's net export of alumina reached 104,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to July was 1.179 million tons [15] - In July, China's single - month import volume of bauxite reached 20.063 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% [15] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It covers the spot prices of alumina in various domestic provinces, the import price of alumina, the spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [35][37][40] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The data involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/stations/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "volatile" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the overall stock market remains bullish, but attention should be paid to the risks of some over - rising companies during the interim report season. Although there are fundamental pressures in the short term, the stock market does not price them more. After Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of loose liquidity may further boost risk appetite, and the bullish pattern of the stock index will be maintained in the short term [3][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - week View and Overview of Macro Key Events 3.1.1 Next - week View - The overall stock market remains bullish in the short term, but attention should be paid to the performance of interim reports. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the third - highest level in history, and the trading volume has reached an average daily level of 2.5 trillion yuan. The "bull market expectation" has gained more consensus. Powell's dovish speech may boost risk appetite, but risks of over - rising companies during the interim report season should be noted [3][11] 3.1.2 This - week Key Event Concerns - **August 18th**: The central bank aims to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market; the China Index Academy reported that in July, the second - hand housing price dropped by 0.77% month - on - month; the State Council emphasized measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market [12][13][14] - **August 19th**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year; Shanghai's private enterprises' exports increased significantly; the central bank added 100 billion yuan in re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses [15][17][18] - **August 20th**: The LPR remained unchanged in August; the national leaders emphasized promoting major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [19][20] - **August 21st**: The total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%; 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments are expected to be implemented [21][23] - **August 22nd**: The national leaders will attend relevant activities of the SCO Summit; the State Council executive meeting heard a report on the implementation of equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policies [24][25] 3.2 One - week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From August 18th to 22nd, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.34%, with developed markets (+0.44%) > frontier markets (-0.24%) > emerging markets (-0.46%). The Swiss stock market led the world with a 2.14% increase, while the Taiwanese stock market had the worst performance with a 4.93% decline [2][26] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - Chinese equity assets rose significantly. A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.588 trillion yuan, an increase of 485.8 billion yuan from last week. Most indices rose by more than 3%, with the STAR 50 rising 13.31% and the SSE 50 rising 3.38% [2][29] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most GICS primary industries in the global market rose, with the energy sector leading (+2.16%) and the information technology sector performing poorly (-1.62%). In the Chinese market, the information technology sector led the rise (+8.68%), and the real estate sector lagged (+0.75%) [33] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries, 30 rose (22 last week) and 0 fell (8 last week). The leading industry][ was communication (+10.47%), and the industry that underperformed the most was real estate (+0.98%) [34] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles - The large - cap growth style was dominant. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market - cap style favored large - caps [39] 3.2.6 Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [43][44] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - based Index Valuation - Valuation data of various broad - based indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 100, etc., including PE, PB, and their changes during the year are presented [46] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Valuation data of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc., including PE, PB, and their changes during the year are presented [47] 3.3.3 Equity Risk Premium of Broad - based Indices - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 declined rapidly this week [48][53] 3.3.4 Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast of Broad - based Indices - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 7.90%, and in 2026, it was adjusted up to 8.20%; for the CSI 500, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted up to 32.41%, and in 2026, it was adjusted up to 16.68%; for the CSI 1000, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted up to 41.82%, and in 2026, it was adjusted down to 18.04% [54] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.17 [62] 3.4.2 Tracking of Trading - type Funds - The average daily northbound trading volume increased by 66.8 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 83.2 billion yuan [65] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 760 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 80 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 2.4 billion shares [67][68][70] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply Side - The coking start - up rate rebounded [73] 3.5.2 Consumption Side - Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $68 per barrel [81][89] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation - The price of production materials rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [91][92]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), the re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.05% to 20,175 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased by 121.4 yuan/ton to 19,832.8 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed by 21.5 yuan/ton to 167.1 yuan/ton [2][13] - The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the price remains high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in some regions, and the scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [3] - Considering the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the decline in the raw material inventory of some alloy ingot factories, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 [4][22] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap aluminum arrival is scarce, and continuously monitor the implementation of the tax - refund cancellation policy - The re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly last week. The prices of some scrap aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, while the FOB price of Malaysian scrap aluminum increased by 5 US dollars/ton to 2,165 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased, and the profit narrowed [13][14] - The scrap aluminum market supply is tight, and the price is high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in Anhui and Jiangxi. The scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the game between scrap aluminum holders and recycled aluminum plants. The inventory of scrap aluminum has slightly accumulated, but it is difficult to continue to accumulate. The demand for imported raw materials is expected to increase [16][18] - The price of ADC12 is relatively strong. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy is stronger than that of electrolytic aluminum. There are regional production stoppages and suspension of shipments in Anhui and Jiangxi, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching, and the price of aluminum alloy ingots is likely to rise [19] 2. Review of industry news during the week - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice to regulate investment - promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal returns and subsidies in local investment - promotion [23] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products, and the new tariff list took effect on August 18 [23] 3. Monitoring of key high - frequency data in the industrial chain 3.1 Scrap aluminum: Tight arrival, slight inventory accumulation - The monthly production and shipment volume data of Chinese scrap aluminum in recent years are presented, showing the overall production and shipment trends. The weekly procurement volume of scrap aluminum traders and the inventory and arrival retention of scrap aluminum traders are also monitored. The monthly scrap aluminum inventory of cast aluminum alloy factories shows that some alloy ingot factories' raw material inventory has decreased [26][27][33] - The price trend of Foshan crushed raw aluminum and the refined - scrap price difference are monitored, indicating that the price of scrap aluminum is relatively strong compared to primary aluminum [34] 3.2 ADC12: Strong price, high social inventory - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract, the term structure of SHFE cast aluminum alloy, the basis of Baotai ADC12, and the sales price of Baotai ADC12 are monitored. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the profit of production has slightly narrowed [35][37][38] - The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in Foshan, the production and operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of leading recycled aluminum casting enterprises, the social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots, and the daily production profit of recycled aluminum alloy and the instant profit of imported ADC12 are monitored [42][46][47] 3.3 Downstream: The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and pay attention to the realization of peak - season demand - The monthly consumption of recycled aluminum casting, the production of Chinese automobiles, new - energy vehicles, and fuel vehicles, the automobile inventory warning index, the production of Chinese motorcycles, and the operating rates of Chinese semi - steel tires and all - steel tires are monitored. The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [56][58][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the bond market is weak, and the stock market is expected to remain strong. The performance of the bond market will be dominated by the capital side and the equity market, and the cost - effectiveness of going long on the bond market is limited compared to the stock market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 18th to 22nd, treasury bond futures continued to decline. Influenced by factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, tax payment periods, and stock market trends, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2512 contracts decreased by 0.066 yuan, 0.300 yuan, 0.570 yuan, and 1.310 yuan respectively compared to last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain weak. The capital side and the equity market will dominate the bond's trend. The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation next Monday with a net capital injection of 300 billion yuan, but the capital side may tighten marginally during tax payment and end - of - month periods. The expectation of broad - based monetary policy may rise, but its positive impact on the bond market is limited. The stock market is expected to remain strong, and the cost - effectiveness of going long on the bond market is limited [2][13][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 136 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 925.84 billion yuan and a net financing of 655.86 billion yuan, an increase of 370.148 billion yuan and 312.066 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. The net financing of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [19][20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields increased. As of August 22nd, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 3.53bp, 5.58bp, 4.26bp, and 4.50bp respectively compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [24][25] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures continued to decline. As of August 22nd, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2512 contracts decreased compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year decreased, and that of 30 - year increased [34][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious this week. The basis of treasury bond futures generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp [43] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of August 22nd, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts generally widened. The previously recommended strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be gradually closed for profit [46][47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 136.52 billion yuan. As of August 22nd, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed by - 1.91bp, - 3.67bp, + 2.00bp, and - 0.20bp respectively compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased by 1.02 trillion yuan compared to last week [51][53][55] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated weakly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield declined. As of August 22nd, the US dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 97.7244 compared to last weekend, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 7BP to 4.26%. The 10Y treasury bond yield spread between China and the US was inverted by 247.7BP [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices declined uniformly, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of August 22nd, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index decreased by 27.09 points, 101.16 points, and 4.31 points respectively compared to last weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changed by + 0.05 yuan/kg, + 0.09 yuan/kg, and - 0.09 yuan/kg respectively compared to last weekend [63][64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - In the short - term, the bond market sentiment is weak, and caution is needed when trading for rebounds. It is recommended to focus on short - hedging strategies, use T or TL for hedging in a strong stock market environment, pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and close the strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread for profit [16][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PTA/MEG: Oscillating [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of petrochemical reform policies boosts market sentiment, and supply disruptions strengthen the near - term pattern. The short - term market sentiment is more affected than the fundamentals, and the continuation of the market depends on the actual situation of the industrial chain fundamentals [2][12] - The supply - side unplanned maintenance of PTA is a driving force for the recent price increase. If the maintenance is fully implemented, the near - term supply - demand pattern will improve significantly. The demand - side season change provides a window for price increases, but the lack of strong speculative replenishment willingness of downstream restricts price increases. MEG has no obvious additional supply - side disruptions, with high far - term supply and low - level port inventory, making it difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern in the short term [3] - The petrochemical capacity reform has shown signs, but the lack of detailed rules for capacity elimination limits the speculative demand. The short - term downstream peak - season replenishment window and PTA supply - side disruptions are the keys to improving the near - term supply - demand pattern, and the sustainability of the market depends on the full implementation of device maintenance [4][31] Summary by Directory 1. Petrochemical Reform Policy Expectations Boost Market Sentiment - Two news items have significantly boosted the sentiment of the chemical sector: China plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, and South Korean petrochemical companies will cut naphtha cracking capacity. These reflect long - term policy regulation and global market changes, with a greater impact on short - term market sentiment than fundamentals [2][11] - The proportion of old - fashioned capacities of PX, PTA, and MEG is low, with those over 20 years old not exceeding 5%. It is difficult for them to directly benefit from capacity elimination, and the actual policy progress and implementation need long - term tracking [11][13] - The reduction of the market share of Japanese and South Korean petrochemical businesses has little direct impact on polyester products in the short term, but may bring future export opportunities for Chinese chemical products [11] 2. Supply Disruptions Strengthen the Near - Term Pattern, and Peak - Season Demand Remains to be Observed - The unplanned maintenance on the PTA supply side is a factor in the recent price increase. Low processing fees in August led to unplanned maintenance of some devices, and Hengli's plan to shut down two 500 - million - ton/year devices for a month will change the near - term PTA pattern from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the maintenance is fully implemented, it will increase the PTA loss by about 400,000 tons [3][16] - Although terminal orders have improved in mid - to late August and downstream loads have increased, the high inventory of polyester products of weaving enterprises and the lack of strong speculative replenishment willingness limit the upside potential of raw material prices [21] - MEG has no obvious additional supply - side disruptions, with the device maintenance loss in the second half of the year significantly lower than that in the second quarter. High coal - based loads and the restart of some non - coal - based devices make the far - term supply loose, but low - level port inventory strongly supports the price, and it is difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern in the short term [3][28] 3. Investment Recommendations - Since the petrochemical capacity reform has just shown signs and lacks detailed capacity elimination rules, it has limited impact on speculative demand. The short - term downstream peak - season replenishment window and PTA supply - side disruptions are key to improving the near - term supply - demand pattern, and the sustainability of the market depends on the full implementation of device maintenance [4][31] - For PTA, the pattern has marginally improved under supply disruptions, with the near - term changing from balance to inventory depletion, and the short - term price is oscillating strongly. Considering the mandatory cancellation of 09 warehouse receipts, try the 10 - 1 positive spread when the spread is low. If the PTA device maintenance duration is less than expected, the speculative sentiment may decline rapidly [4][31] - For MEG, the contradictions are not prominent. Low inventory and increased far - term supply restrict the price range, and the operation should be within the oscillating range [4][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data in August showed mixed results. The manufacturing and services PMIs rebounded unexpectedly, but the initial jobless claims increased more than expected. The inflation pressure rose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products had different trends. For example, the price of动力煤was expected to be stable in the short - term, while the price of豆粕was affected by the US harvest and China's purchase policy [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The services PMI and the composite PMI also showed good performance [12]. - The Fed's Hammack indicated that the FOMC might not cut interest rates in September. The gold price fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price remained in a range - bound state [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The proportion of new energy increased significantly [15]. - A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan might be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [16]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate long positions in various stock indexes evenly [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU took further measures to finalize the trade agreement, including plans to reduce US tariffs on European cars [19]. - The Atlanta Fed President still expected one interest rate cut this year and paid attention to the labor market [20]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since 2022, which supported the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short - term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The services PMI also performed well [23]. - The Fed's Collins said that if the labor market deteriorated, it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short - term. Hammack did not support an interest rate cut in September [24][25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction, as the fundamental data remains resilient [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 253 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on August 21, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan [27]. - Investment advice: If the short - term increase is high, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - hedging strategy [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of the week ending August 14, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations [29]. - The Pro Farmer field inspection indicated a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans. The market focused on whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [30]. - Investment advice: The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US field inspection results and China's purchase policy [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian importers started to buy palm oil from Colombia and Guatemala at a large discount [31]. - The Trump administration was expected to make a ruling on the exemption of small refineries [32]. - The palm oil export volume in Indonesia increased in June, and the inventory decreased slightly [33]. - Investment advice: After the adjustment, the US biodiesel policy might boost the price of the oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang were about to enter the sugar - increasing period. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose slightly [34][35]. - Investment advice: Due to the uncertainty of the new - season production, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the pre - festival stocking in the main sales areas [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises were affected by equipment maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased slightly [36]. - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread was expected to strengthen when the new - season production was determined [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 250,700 tons week - on - week as of August 21. The rebar inventory increased significantly [38]. - Investment advice: The steel price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait for the market to correct [39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processed corn decreased, and the consumption also decreased [40]. - Investment advice: The 11 and 01 contracts of corn futures were expected to decline. Hold short positions and pay attention to the weather [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The total social electricity consumption in July increased by 8.6% year - on - year [42]. - Investment advice: The peak of the coal price was expected to have passed, and the price was expected to be stable in the short - term [43]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The import of recycled steel raw materials in July was 21,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03% [44]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In July, China's cotton product export volume increased, but the export value decreased [45]. - India temporarily exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [46]. - The Indian Cotton Association expected that the cotton production in 2025/26 would increase despite the decrease in the planting area [47]. - Investment advice: Before the new cotton was listed in China, the supply was tight, which supported the price in the short - term. However, the price was expected to be under pressure in the fourth quarter [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Trump reiterated that the US would not approve new photovoltaic or wind power projects [50]. - Investment advice: The futures price of polysilicon had strong support at 49,000 yuan/ton. It was recommended to take a bullish view on pull - backs and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity [51][52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export volume of primary polysiloxane in July decreased [53]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $39.48/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly [55]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $9.33/ton. The domestic zinc inventory decreased [57]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Zulu lithium project in Africa made a major breakthrough [59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips and conduct positive arbitrage [60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Codelco in Chile lowered its 2025 copper production guidance [61]. - The S3 expansion project of First Quantum Minerals in Zambia was put into operation [62]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons on August 21 [64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On August 21, the closing price of CEA was 70.92 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PG price was expected to be strong in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. Trump's statement on not approving new wind and photovoltaic projects might affect the demand for natural gas [74]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of August 21, the inventory of urea at Chinese ports increased by 37,000 tons week - on - week [76]. - Investment advice: The urea price was expected to be in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the new Indian tender and domestic demand [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - Two PTA plants in South China were planned to be shut down for maintenance [77]. - Investment advice: The PTA price was expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 21, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted locally [80]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price was expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the price [81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market continued to be weak [82]. - Investment advice: The pulp price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly stronger [86]. - Investment advice: The PVC price was expected to be weak in the short - term due to India's anti - dumping ruling [86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - An East China styrene plant with a capacity of 320,000 tons/year was planned to be shut down for maintenance in September [87]. - Investment advice: The styrene price was expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand were expected to be balanced in September, but there was a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories mostly increased [89]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new plant commissioning in late August and September [91]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of August 21, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.9108 million tons, with a 0.71% increase [92]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to short the soda ash price on rallies and pay attention to supply disruptions [92]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On August 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased [93]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [94]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The global container ship order volume reached a record high, and the over - supply of shipping capacity was expected to last until 2029 [95]. - Investment advice: The container freight rate was expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 33rd week of 2025 (August 11 - August 17), the sales of domestic passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased month - on - month. The new energy penetration rate reached 57.0%, at a historically high level [2][13]. - The market pattern of new energy vehicles is constantly changing. Traditional car companies such as Geely, Changan, and Chery are achieving excellent new energy sales, and new brands like Xiaomi are bringing new variables to the market [3][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - In the 33rd week of 2025, passenger car retail sales were 432,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%; new energy passenger car retail sales were 246,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The cumulative new energy penetration rate this year was 51.4% [2][13]. - By power type, in passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles retailed 171,000, 15,000, and 246,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 1.6%, - 10.0%, and 13.7%. In new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles retailed 157,000, 69,000, and 21,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 26.2%, - 2.6%, and - 5.5% [16]. - By production attribute, in passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands retailed 289,000 and 144,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 12.0% and - 0.3%. In new energy passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands retailed 220,000 and 26,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 15.0% and 3.4% [16]. 3.2 Key New Energy Vehicle Companies' Sales Analysis 3.2.1 BYD - Weekly sales were 71,000 units, with consecutive weeks of year - on - year negative growth. The cumulative sales this year were 2 million units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.7%. The sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models were basically half and half [25]. - From January to July this year, the global cumulative sales were 2.49 million units, and the overseas cumulative sales of passenger cars and pickups were 550,000 units. There were reports that BYD might slow down production and capacity expansion plans, and the annual sales target of 5.5 million units might be lowered [25]. 3.2.2 Geely Automobile - Weekly sales were 51,000 units, including 33,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the company was about 66%. The cumulative sales this year were 1.391 million units, a year - on - year increase of 50.2%, and the cumulative new energy sales were 813,000 units, doubling year - on - year [27]. - The company's 2025 sales target was raised from 2.71 million units to 3 million units [27]. 3.2.3 SAIC - GM - Wuling - Weekly sales of passenger cars were 18,000 units, including 17,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate was about 90%. The cumulative sales this year were 496,000 units, with a growth rate of 21.6%, and the new energy cumulative sales were 421,000 units, with a growth rate of 42.4% [29]. 3.2.4 Changan Automobile - Weekly sales of passenger cars were 22,000 units, including 12,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate was about 53%. The cumulative sales this year were 731,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and the new energy cumulative sales were 357,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.3% [34]. - The sales of its new energy brands Shenlan and Qiyuan were about 4,000 and 3,000 units respectively, and the sales of Avita were about 2,000 units [34]. 3.2.5 Chery Automobile - Weekly sales of passenger cars were 23,000 units, including 9,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate was about 37%. The cumulative sales this year were 750,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 27.4%, and the new energy cumulative sales were 263,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 71.2% [40]. - The sales of its new energy brands iCAR and Chery New Energy were both over 1,000 units [40]. 3.2.6 Tesla - The sales in China that week were 13,000 units. The cumulative sales this year were 342,000 units, a year - on - year negative growth of - 5.5%. Tesla has launched multiple promotional activities this year [45]. - On August 19, Tesla China launched the Model Y L, priced at 339,000 yuan. In the new energy vehicle countryside campaign in 2025, Tesla Model 3 and Model Y entered the countryside catalog for the first time [45][46]. 3.2.7 Hongmeng Zhixing - Weekly sales were 9,000 units, including about 8,000 units of Wenjie. The new Zunjie S800 started large - scale mass delivery in mid - August, aiming for a monthly production capacity of 3,000 units in September and 4,000 units by the end of the year [48]. 3.2.8 New Car - making Forces - In new car - making forces, Leapmotor sold 10,000 units, Wenjie and XPeng sold 8,000 units each, NIO and Xiaomi sold 7,000 units each, and Li Auto sold 6,000 units. XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and Voyah maintained good year - on - year growth rates. The launch of NIO's new car LeDao L90 drove the sales recovery in the past three weeks [54].