Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The price of industrial silicon may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For polysilicon, the spot price may remain firm under the narrative of capacity restructuring, and the price may operate between 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 355 yuan/ton to 8,390 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,450 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 49,555 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Slow Resumption of Large Factories in Xinjiang and Fierce Game at the Component Terminal Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated and declined this week. Xinjiang and Ningxia added 8 and 1 furnaces respectively, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 1 furnace each. Large factories in Xinjiang resumed 4 furnaces, with slow increase in operation, lower than expected. Southern operation remained stable, and some silicon factories may reduce production in the dry season at the end of October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons. It is estimated that industrial silicon will destock about 10,000 tons in August. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and destock about 100,000 tons from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to destock during the dry season [1][10] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon fluctuated this week. Due to equipment maintenance, the weekly output decreased. The overall enterprise operation rate was 72.71%, and the weekly output was 48,100 tons, a decrease of 4.37% week - on - week. New orders were limited, and inventory slightly accumulated. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will oscillate at a low level [10][11] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. The average spot transaction price increased due to downstream restocking. As of the end of August, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 213,000 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory may rise to 220,000 - 250,000 tons. The production in September may increase to 132,000 tons. There are rumors of strict production and sales restrictions starting from September. The first - stage price regulation of polysilicon "anti - involution" is basically determined, and the second - stage upward force may come from the relief fund and capacity restructuring plan [2][12] Silicon Wafers - The transaction price of silicon wafers increased this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.05GW as of August 28, an increase of 0.64GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Battery Cells - The transaction price of battery cells increased this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.03GW as of August 25, an increase of 1.22GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Components - The component price increased slightly this week. New orders were few, and most were executing previous orders. The centralized project delivery price was around 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and some distributed projects could accept prices above 0.7 yuan/watt. Component and terminal are in a fierce game. Component prices are expected to rise, but terminal demand may decline [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang and focus on range - trading opportunities. - Polysilicon: Adopt a callback - buying strategy. Consider 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][15] 4. Hot News Sorting - The winning candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic project component procurement of China Resources Power in 2025 were announced. - Daquan Energy's revenue in the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 67.93%. The company will continue the production - reduction strategy in the third quarter [16] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts to track high - frequency data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and profit data [17][26][30][34][40][48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The US core PCE meets expectations, inflation pressure rises, but the Fed's rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [2][15]. - The 8 - month manufacturing PMI in China is still in the contraction range, with a small month - on - month increase, and the domestic market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4][23]. - The market for various commodities shows different trends, including weakening in steel prices, potential increases in palm oil and soybean oil prices in the long - term, and different supply - demand situations and price trends in other commodities [5][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US core PCE meets expectations, with the annual rate of the July core PCE price index at 2.9% and the monthly rate at 0.3%. The inflation pressure rises, but it won't change the rate - cut rhythm, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate [16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The July core PCE meets market expectations, and Fed officials release dovish signals. The index is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the rate - cut expectation [20]. - Investment advice: The market risk appetite remains high under the rate - cut expectation, and the index will fluctuate strongly [21]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's August manufacturing PMI is 49.4. The domestic market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to price transmission [22][23]. - Investment advice: Consider reducing long positions in stock index allocations [24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 782.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market will fluctuate, and the subsequent inflation change needs attention [25]. - Investment advice: The bond market is in a short - term fluctuating trend. Pay attention to absolute prices, funds, and market sentiment when going long [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The oilseed crushing volume and开机率 of coastal oil mills are estimated. The palm oil market may see a slight increase in inventory in August, and the soybean oil yield may be lower than last year [27][29]. - Investment advice: Palm oil has long - term allocation value, and soybean oil's far - month contracts also have long - term allocation value [30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's September sugar domestic sales quota is 2.35 million tons. The global sugar supply shortage in 2025/26 will narrow significantly, and Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August increased year - on - year [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the factory's quotation of imported sugar. Consider buying on dips for the Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract [36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India extends the cotton import tariff exemption until December 31. The drought - affected area of US cotton has expanded, and the weekly signing of US cotton exports has increased significantly [37][39][40]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate in the short term, and the market is not optimistic during the new cotton listing period in the fourth quarter [41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has increased, the auction of imported soybeans has a certain成交 rate, and the oil mill's开机率 remains high [42][43][44]. - Investment advice: If China resumes purchasing US soybeans, buy soybean meal on dips but don't chase the high, and keep an eye on Sino - US relations [45]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import market of steam coal is sluggish, and the price of steam coal will enter a weak consolidation stage. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan [46]. - Investment advice: The price of steam coal will fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan due to supply and demand factors [47]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto adjusts its operation mode. The iron ore market will fluctuate, and the trend is not clear [48][49]. - Investment advice: The iron ore market will maintain a fluctuating trend [50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rizhao Steel acquires 4.66 million tons of steel production capacity. Guangzhou suspends the car "replacement and upgrade" subsidy. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [51][52]. - Investment advice: Consider a short - term callback approach for steel prices [53]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch has decreased, and the price difference with corn starch has slightly increased [54][55]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of widening the price difference [55]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has declined [55]. - Investment advice: Stop losses for previous short positions and look for short - selling opportunities later [56]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The spot price of jujube is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The inventory of sample enterprises is high [57]. - Investment advice: Observe the market and focus on the weather in the production area and on - the - spot research [59]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Indonesia cancels a pricing regulation. The supply of alumina exceeds demand, and the price will fluctuate weakly [60]. - Investment advice: Observe the market [60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Harmony accelerates its diversification into the copper business. The copper market will be affected by macro factors and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [61][64]. - Investment advice: Buy copper on dips unilaterally and observe for arbitrage [64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There is a photovoltaic component tender with a price limit. The spot price of polysilicon may remain firm, but the terminal demand is not optimistic [65][66]. - Investment advice: Trade polysilicon with a callback - buying approach and consider a 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage at around - 2000 yuan/ton [67][68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan silicon plants may cut production if the price doesn't rise. The production and inventory of industrial silicon are affected by the resumption of production in Xinjiang [69][70]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption of production in Xinjiang and trade within the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chile aims to reach a lithium cooperation deal by 2026. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to strengthen in September due to supply and demand changes [71][72]. - Investment advice: Look for long - buying opportunities after inventory reduction and basis strengthening, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [73]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The开工率 of recycled lead in Inner Mongolia has declined significantly. The lead market's supply and demand will change from loose to tight, and the price may rise [74][75]. - Investment advice: Look for long - buying opportunities at low prices and consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [75]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc spread is in a discount. The zinc market will fluctuate, and the medium - term short - selling logic may be realized through the rise of LME zinc [76]. - Investment advice: Observe the market unilaterally and consider a medium - term positive arbitrage [76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA price fluctuates. The carbon market will be affected by various factors and will fluctuate narrowly [78]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short term [79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US crude oil production has increased in June, and the number of oil rigs has risen. The oil price will fluctuate within a range [79][80][81]. - Investment advice: The oil price will maintain a range - bound fluctuation [81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda is stable. The spot price increase of caustic soda may be near the end, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward [82][83][85]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda futures price is expected to fluctuate downward [85]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp market shows a rebound sign. The pulp market is in a weak fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate weakly [86][87]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [87]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has declined slightly. The PVC market will fluctuate [88][89]. - Investment advice: The PVC futures price will fluctuate [89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable, and the domestic price has decreased. The industry maintains a 20% production - cut target, and the demand is transitioning to the off - season [90][92]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the new production capacity in September and the demand change [92]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is weak. The supply pressure will continue, and the demand is not strong. The 01 contract of urea is expected to fluctuate within a range [93][94]. - Investment advice: The urea futures price will fluctuate within a range, and pay attention to the export to India [94]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is stable, and the price is flexible. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average [95]. - Investment advice: Sell soda ash at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [96][97]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market lacks a strong driving force and will fluctuate [98]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on the long - glass and short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [98]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo Port's semi - annual profit has increased. The container freight rate index shows different trends. The freight rate is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to the Red Sea situation [99][100][101]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the Red Sea situation [101].

周度报告—碳酸锂 仓单陆续回流，盘面延续回调 [Table_Summary] ★仓单陆续回流，盘面延续回调 上周锂盐价格延续回落。LC2509 收盘价环比-2.8%至 7.70 万元/ 吨，LC2511 收盘价环比-2.3%至 7.72 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工 业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-5.1%、-5.2%至 7.97、7.74 万元/吨。周 内氢氧化锂价格微跌，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均 价环比-0.8%至 7.69、8.19 万元/吨。电工价差环比持平于 0.23 万 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比收窄 0.37 万元至 0.28 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 上周盘面依旧偏弱运行，除商品市场情绪整体偏弱外，市场担忧 价格反弹后增量供应将补足枧下窝停产带来的产量损失、同时显 性的仓单及基差暂未显示出实质性利多兑现。产量方面，据 SMM 数据，中国碳酸锂周产量已连续两周环比回落；分项而言，锂辉 石产碳酸锂周产仍在环比攀升、但增幅已较此前明显放缓，且锂 辉石代工费已从前期的 1.9 万元/吨回升至 2.2 万元/吨左右，或 表明国内有效产能开工率已接近峰值，调研显示，9 月进一 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The current primary contradiction in the market is between the strong risk appetite and the weak fundamental performance, leading to an oscillatory trend in treasury bonds. In the short term, there are no clear trend - based trading opportunities in the bond market, and short - term strategies should be adopted. Next week, the bond market will mainly oscillate, with some moments of potential increases, but the timing of long - positions is difficult to grasp, and attention should be paid to the interest rate safety margin [2][15]. - In the near term, the bond market lacks a trending market. The equity market will continue to be strong but will experience fluctuations. Meanwhile, the improvement in the fundamentals is slower than expected, causing the bond market to be insensitive to the rise of the stock market when interest rates adjust to a certain level. There will be short - term long - position opportunities in the market next week [16]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Outlook 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 25th to August 31st, treasury bond futures rebounded slightly. On Monday, after a sharp decline in the bond market, there was a rebound momentum, and the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve boosted the expectation of loose liquidity, resulting in a simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds. On Tuesday, the capital market was balanced, the stock market rose and then fell, and treasury bond futures strengthened, with TL performing particularly strongly. On Wednesday, the stock market rose and then fell, but due to the tightening of the capital market and the uncertainty of the subsequent stock market trend, the bond market's increase was limited. On Thursday, the stock market was weak in the morning, but the bond market sentiment did not improve. In the afternoon, the stock market rose rapidly, and treasury bond futures fell significantly. On Friday, the news was calm, the exchange rate appreciated significantly, the capital market was balanced, and stocks and bonds both rose. As of August 29th, the settlement prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.420, 105.515, 107.820, and 116.560 yuan respectively, up 0.102, 0.145, 0.165, and 0.660 yuan from the previous weekend [14]. 1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The bond market will mainly oscillate next week. It is recommended to establish short - term long - positions on the left side before the stock market fluctuates and when the interest rate is relatively high, and exit quickly. Also, pay attention to short - hedging strategies, the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and stop - profit and wait for the strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread [2]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 101 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 502.597 billion yuan and a net financing of - 13.592 billion yuan, down 423.243 billion yuan and 669.452 billion yuan from last week respectively. 81 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 351.597 billion yuan and a net financing of 243.508 billion yuan, down 1.7553 billion yuan and up 3.4708 billion yuan from last week respectively. 280 inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) were issued, with a total issuance volume of 557.22 billion yuan and a net financing of - 194.56 billion yuan, up 0.911 billion yuan and 5.205 billion yuan from last week respectively [23]. 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of August 29th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.64%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, down 3.04bp, up 0.39bp, up 6.06bp, and up 6.25bp from the previous weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y widened by 6.18bp, 5.67bp, and 0.19bp respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.54%, 1.77%, and 1.88% respectively, down 3.20bp, up 0.01bp, and up 1.27bp from the previous weekend [27][28]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of August 29th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts were 102.420, 105.515, 107.820, and 116.560 yuan respectively, up 0.102, 0.145, 0.165, and 0.660 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41,387, 79,707, 111,765, and 181,645 lots respectively, down 21,136, 28,327, 35,187, and 47,596 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 83,540, 148,187, 214,900, and 153,379 lots respectively, down 12,037, 23,589, 14,531 lots and up 457 lots from the previous weekend [35][38]. 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - This week, the opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage were not obvious. The capital market was generally loose, the market oscillated weakly, and the basis of futures generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contracts was between 1.4% and 1.8%, and the current NCD rate was between 1.5% and 1.6%, so the opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies were relatively few. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, mainly due to the fluctuation of spot bond yields after the futures market closed, making it difficult to grasp trading opportunities [42]. 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of August 29th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.072, + 0.140, + 0.235, and + 0.460 yuan respectively, down 0.072, up 0.040, down 0.015, and down 0.080 yuan from the previous weekend. The market sentiment warmed up marginally this week, and the inter - delivery spreads generally oscillated and narrowed. As it is approaching the delivery month, the previously recommended strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can gradually take profit [46]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. Due to the maturity of 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, 400 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchases, the full - scale net withdrawal was 403.9 billion yuan. As of August 29th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.52%, 1.52%, 1.33%, and 1.51% respectively, down 4.42bp, 0.50bp, 8.70bp, and up 4.70bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.07 trillion yuan, 0.06 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 85.46%, slightly lower than last week [50][53][55]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield both oscillated within a narrow range. As of August 29th, the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 97.8477 from the previous weekend; the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 3bp from the previous weekend; the spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 238.7bp. Trump is gradually increasing his influence on the Federal Reserve, and the US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's reciprocal tariff policy is illegal [61]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed a mixed trend. As of August 29th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the Metal Index, and the Energy and Chemical Index were 3614.83, 6394.54, and 1664.76 points respectively, down 16.12, up 29.49, and down 18.61 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also showed a mixed trend. As of August 29th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 19.94, 4.94, and 6.85 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.16, up 0.10, and up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65]. 7. Investment Recommendations - In the near term, the bond market will mainly oscillate. It is recommended to establish short - term long - positions on the left side before the stock market fluctuates and when the interest rate is relatively high, and exit quickly. Also, continue to pay attention to short - hedging strategies, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as long 4TS and short T for the 10Y - 1Y spread at the short - to - medium end). Stop - profit and wait for the strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread [2][18][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - For股指期货, it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [15]. - For外汇 futures (US Dollar Index), the US dollar is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - For US stock index futures, it is suggested to buy on dips after short - term corrections as the upward trend of US stocks has not reversed [22]. - For treasury bond futures, it is in a recent oscillatory trend, and when going long, one needs to pay attention to the absolute price, funds, and market sentiment [24]. - For other sectors such as commodities, specific investment suggestions are provided for each commodity, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, and waiting and seeing [26][28][29] Core Views - The A - share market has a V - shaped reversal with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but market divergence is increasing, and marginal changes need attention [2][14]. - The US labor market shows resilience with lower - than - expected initial jobless claims, and the market risk preference remains high. The Federal Reserve officials are releasing signals of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on the US stock and foreign exchange markets [17][20][21]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to the complex influence of macro and fundamental factors; the price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as export sales, reserve sales, and Sino - US relations [5][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Chinese trade representative will visit the US. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released. The A - share market has a V - shaped reversal with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but market divergence is increasing [13][14]. - Investment suggestion: Evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - There are disputes over the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. German Chancellor Merz says a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely. The US initial jobless claims last week were lower than expected [16][17]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US initial and continuing jobless claims last week were lower than expected. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the September meeting [20][21]. - Investment suggestion: Buy on dips after short - term corrections as the upward trend of US stocks has not reversed [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 4161 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1631 billion yuan. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened recently, and the bond market is expected to be in an oscillatory trend [23]. - Investment suggestion: It is in a recent oscillatory trend, and when going long, one needs to pay attention to the absolute price, funds, and market sentiment [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The export sales of US new - crop soybeans were better than expected. China will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The soybean meal futures price is weaker than the overseas market [25][26]. - Investment suggestion: Affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, soybean meal is weaker than the overseas market. The focus later is on China's purchase of US soybeans [26]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean shipments to China were 0 tons in the week ending August 21. The oil market continued to oscillate at a high level and had a slight correction [27]. - Investment suggestion: The oil market still lacks clear guidance. It is recommended to go long on dips considering India's replenishment demand and the unfavorable inventory accumulation data of Malaysian palm oil in August [28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn consumption of starch sugar products increased slightly this week, while the corn starch consumption decreased. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the CS11 - C11 spread is under pressure [29]. - Investment suggestion: The corn - starch price difference has fallen to a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are opportunities to widen the spread driven by factors such as the regional price difference of raw materials [29]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises and the average inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot market was cautious, while the futures rebounded. The short - term price decline rhythm may change [30][31][32]. - Investment suggestion: Short - term long positions entered earlier should be closed at an appropriate time. After the selling pressure is gradually realized, pay attention to whether there are new opportunities to go short on rallies [33]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,400 tons week - on - week. The supply - demand fundamentals of steel products still face pressure, but the industry policy has a positive impact on market sentiment [34][35]. - Investment suggestion: In the short term, a oscillatory approach should be adopted for steel prices [36]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie Indonesian coal has loosened, and the port coal price has fallen. The coal price is expected to be seasonally weak, but there is support below 650 yuan [37]. - Investment suggestion: The coal price is expected to be seasonally weak, but there is support below 650 yuan [37]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The number of sugar - carrying ships waiting at Brazilian ports increased, and the estimated sugar production in Brazil was lowered. The international sugar price is expected to oscillate, and the outlook for the fourth - quarter external market is optimistic. The domestic sugar price is affected by factors such as imports and warehouse receipts [38][40][41]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price has fallen rapidly recently. The 1 - month contract can wait for opportunities to go long on dips, with a target price of around 5500 yuan or after the September contract is delivered [41]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto adjusted its operation mode and executive committee. The iron ore price continued to oscillate, and the short - term supply - demand pressure was not large [42]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the actual trading volume after the price increase. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to positive spread trading opportunities [43]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market increased. The downstream arrivals decreased, and the spot price was firm but lacked upward momentum. The new - season production is uncertain [43][44]. - Investment suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the production area and the results of on - the - spot investigations [44]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - KoBold Metals obtained seven lithium ore exploration licenses in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The short - term supply - demand balance is affected by factors such as imports and production resumption, and there is support at the bottom [45]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips and positive spread trading opportunities [46]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - JinkoSolar's semi - annual report shows high - volume shipments but losses. The polysilicon price is stable, and the market is in a game about whether the upstream price increase can be transmitted downstream. The September production is uncertain [47][48]. - Investment suggestion: The downside space of the futures price is more definite, and the upside space depends on factors such as component bidding prices and production cuts. Unilaterally, a bullish view on dips can be maintained, and for arbitrage, pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity at around - 2000 yuan/ton [49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry's semi - annual report shows a loss. The production and inventory of industrial silicon are affected by the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton [50][51]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the resumption of production progress of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price may operate in the range of 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [51]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Yunnan Copper produced 779,400 tons of cathode copper in the first half of the year. Jiangxi Copper's semi - annual profit increased. The Snow Lake copper - gold mine in Canada resumed operation. The copper price is affected by macro and fundamental factors and is expected to oscillate at a high level [52][53][54]. - Investment suggestion: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association focuses on illegal mining in the nickel industry. The nickel price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and supply - demand fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to have band - trading opportunities, and medium - term short - selling opportunities can be considered [57][58][59]. - Investment suggestion: Short - term band - trading opportunities can be paid attention to, and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. The downside space depends on factors such as the decline of raw material prices and downstream restocking [59]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of liquefied petroleum gas in China increased, and the inventory situation was mixed. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [63]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price decreased on August 28. The carbon market trading volume has not increased significantly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [64]. - Investment suggestion: The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased less than expected. The natural gas price has support at the current level, and the export demand is strong. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. - Investment suggestion: The NYMEX natural gas price is expected to oscillate in the short term [67]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable. The market is affected by factors such as transportation and inventory [68][69]. - Investment suggestion: Be cautious when chasing high prices [69]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mostly stable. The pulp market is in a weak fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate weakly [70][71]. - Investment suggestion: The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [71]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price decreased slightly. The market is affected by factors such as futures prices and downstream demand. It is expected to oscillate [72][73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate [73]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene decreased slightly. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure is large. The market is affected by factors such as policies and oil prices [74][75]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to internal and external policy variables [75]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased, and the major manufacturers will maintain a minimum 20% production cut in September. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated [76][78]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether new production capacity can be put into operation as scheduled in September. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased locally. The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved marginally, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [79][80][81]. - Investment suggestion: The short - term unilateral price will oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to go long on dips in a rolling manner [82]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. The soda ash price is in a weak and stable oscillation. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [83]. - Investment suggestion: Sell on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [83]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly. The glass price was affected by the equity market. The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved, and it is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage [84][85]. - Investment suggestion: Be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage. Pay attention to the spread - widening strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [85]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The cargo and container throughput of major ports from January to July increased year - on - year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high. The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [86][87]. - Investment suggestion: The 10 - contract has broken through the 1300 support, and the next test is the 1250 support level [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to EU sanctions on Russia and political events in France and Ukraine [14][15] - The upward trend of US stocks remains intact, and investors can buy on dips after short - term corrections, supported by tech giants' AI capital expenditure and interest - rate cut expectations [18][19] - For stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices, considering policies to expand service consumption and industrial profit data [20][22] - In the bond market, unilateral long positions should be taken with caution. Investors with stock positions can consider long bonds to hedge potential stock price corrections [24][25] - For commodities, different investment suggestions are provided for each category based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ukraine and the US will hold a meeting on the 29th to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. France's Prime Minister will meet with the opposition to avoid a trust vote. The EU is considering secondary sanctions on Russia [12][13][14] - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to these events [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's data center revenue in the last fiscal quarter was lackluster, and the revenue guidance was not impressive. Fed official Williams hinted at a possible adjustment in interest - rate policy [16][17] - The short - term adjustment of US stocks is to release valuation pressure, and the upward trend remains intact. Investors can buy on dips [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and jointly formulate measures to promote service exports with relevant departments [20] - In July, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices [21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - From January to July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3799 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan [23][24] - Unless the stock market continues to adjust or the central bank's monetary policy turns unexpectedly loose, treasury bonds lack the opportunity for continuous growth. Unilateral long positions should be taken with caution [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, the estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills is about 10.3025 million tons, and the estimated arrivals in October and November are 9 million tons and 7.5 million tons respectively [26] - The USDA will release its export sales report. Sino - US relations are the most important uncertain factor affecting the price trend. The price of soybean meal is expected to move in a volatile manner [27] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 36.41% month - on - month. Malaysia has formulated an emergency plan for agricultural exports according to EU regulations [28][29] - The short - term trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile, waiting for more data [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton picking in Xinjiang is expected to be advanced. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress is 60.3%, and the growth progress of US cotton is slow but the quality is high [31][32][33] - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, which will support the price in the short term. Zheng cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner [34] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation. In July, transportation fixed - asset investment was 306.1 billion yuan. In August, the retail and wholesale of passenger cars increased year - on - year [35][37][38] - Steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, and a short - term volatile trading strategy is recommended [38][39] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the southwest market is stable. The coking coal futures price is expected to adjust in the short term but has strong support below [40][42] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - From August 21 - 27, the开机率 of the corn starch industry decreased slightly, and the inventory also decreased slightly. The current inventory is at a high level, and the seasonal de - stocking inflection point may be postponed [43] - The price difference between corn starch and corn has fallen to a low level, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to widen it [44] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of August 22, the inventory of corn in the northern port continued to decline, and the grain inventory in the southern port increased slightly month - on - month [45] - Short positions can be held for a while, and attention should be paid to factors affecting supply and demand [45] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In the first half of 2025, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had significant growth in revenue and net profit. The short - term trend of pig futures is expected to be volatile and weak, and investors can pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity [47][48] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In July, the coal import volume of the Philippines decreased. The price of steam coal is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [49][50] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fortescue's iron ore shipments in FY25 reached 198.4 million tons, and its cost decreased. The iron ore price is expected to move in a volatile manner, and the iron - making volume is expected to decline next week and then rebound [51][52] 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang have entered the sugar - increasing period. The price of red date futures is expected to move in a narrow range around 11,400 yuan/ton, and investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $38.74/ton. The US may list lead as a critical mineral, and the regeneration rate in September may decline [56] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $4.61/ton. Zijin Mining's zinc production increased. The stock market decline affected zinc prices, and the domestic supply is loosening [58][59] - It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities [60] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry proposed to resist price competition and strengthen capacity self - discipline. The Bougouni lithium mine in Mali was attacked [61][62] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive - spread trading [63] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The second - stage pumping operation of the Kakula mine is about to start. Canada is researching a financing plan for key mineral projects [64][65] - The copper price is expected to remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [67] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Eramet plans to increase its nickel ore production to 42 million tons this year. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline in September - October, and the nickel price is expected to have short - term band - trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [69][71] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - From August 16 - 22, US EIA commercial crude oil and refined product inventories decreased. The oil price is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [72][73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 27, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda is expected to remain stable in the near future [74][75] - Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [76] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The pulp market is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [77][78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC futures price is expected to move in a volatile manner [79][81] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From August 20 - 27, the inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The styrene market in September is expected to improve marginally, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [82][83] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with individual slight decreases. The inventory of bottle chips is accelerating to decline, and attention should be paid to the pressure on processing fees from plant restart and new capacity in September [84][86] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal plans to invest 3.97 billion euros to upgrade its ports. The spot freight rate is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [87][88][89]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The offset printing paper futures will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 10, 2025. The initial trading contracts are OP2601 - OP2608. The trading margin is 8% of the contract value (7% for hedging), and the daily price limit is ±6%, with the limit on the first trading day being twice that amount [1][12]. - The futures use a (production - type + trading - type) warehouse + depot delivery method, which is more suitable for the spot trading habits and can meet customized needs. The delivery rules may be more favorable to sellers [2][24][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Interpretation of Offset Printing Paper Futures Contract Parameters - The futures will be listed on September 10, 2025, with an opening call auction from 08:55 - 09:00 and trading starting at 09:00. The initial contracts are OP2601 - OP2608. The trading margin is 8% (7% for hedging), and the daily price limit is ±6% (12% on the first day) [1][12]. - The trading unit is 40 tons/hand, the quotation unit is RMB/ton, and other contract details are provided. When conducting cross - variety arbitrage, attention should be paid to the contract ratio. The contract value is at a medium - to - high level in the futures market, which helps optimize the trader structure [13][16]. 3.2. Offset Printing Paper Futures Delivery Rules and Interpretation - **Delivery Unit**: The trading unit is 40 tons/hand, and the delivery unit is 40 tons per standard warehouse receipt, with delivery in integer multiples of the standard warehouse receipt. This setting matches downstream procurement habits and mainstream transportation methods [17][18]. - **Delivery Standards**: The paper should have specific quantitative, thickness, whiteness, width, and quality requirements, and meet or exceed relevant national standards. The delivery brand should be an exchange - certified product. The initial registered brands are expected to be mainly from large manufacturers [19][20][23]. - **Delivery Method**: It uses a combination of warehouse and depot delivery. Depot delivery is more in line with spot trading habits and can meet customized needs, while warehouse delivery ensures smooth delivery [24][25][29]. - **Delivery - related Fees**: The delivery fee is 1 RMB/ton, and it is waived until December 31, 2025 (except for high - frequency traders). Warehouse storage rent is 1 RMB/ton·day, and in - and out - of - warehouse fees are 20 RMB/ton. Depot storage rent is 0.9 RMB/ton·day, and the out - of - warehouse fee is 20 RMB/ton [31][32][33]. 3.3. Offset Printing Paper Futures Delivery Rules May Favor Sellers - For sellers, it is not difficult to meet the quality requirements, and they can increase sales channels and lock in profits through selling delivery. Depot delivery is more flexible and reduces capital and resource occupation [33][34]. - For buyers, it is difficult to participate directly in buying delivery due to issues such as the inability of some delivery product standards to meet requirements, the existing procurement model of publishers, and concerns about after - sales service [34]. 3.4. Risk Management of Offset Printing Paper Futures - **Trading Margin**: The minimum margin is 5% of the contract value, and different margins are charged at different stages of the contract's operation [35]. - **Position Limit System**: There is a position limit system, and hedging positions are subject to approval and not restricted by the limit. Different limits apply to different types of members and clients at different times [35][36]. 3.5. Offset Printing Paper Futures Options Contract - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has launched offset printing paper futures options contracts. They use the American exercise method, with a trading unit of 1 hand of the futures contract, a minimum price change of 1 RMB/ton, and a price limit the same as that of the underlying futures contract. The strike price range and intervals are designed to adapt to market fluctuations [38][39][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner [15]. - **US Stock Index Futures**: The upward trend of US stocks has not reversed. After a short - term correction, investors can still buy on dips [19]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Allocate evenly among various stock indices [22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be cautious with naked long positions on a single side. If there are stock positions, consider using long bonds to hedge potential stock corrections [25]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The futures price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US relations and the weather in US soybean - producing areas [27]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: In the short term, the oil market is expected to remain volatile. Wait for the release of Malaysian palm oil data for August and the USDA's September supply - demand report [30]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile. The upside space is limited. In the fourth quarter, the market for new cotton is not optimistic [34]. - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Adopt a short - term volatile trading strategy for steel prices [39]. - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: The futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but there is strong support below after the adjustment [42]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: The current corn starch price difference has fallen to a low level. The space for further weakening is expected to be small. Pay attention to the driving factors for widening the spread [44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 inverse spreads. If the 11 - 1 spread strengthens significantly, also pay attention to inverse spread opportunities [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Hogs)**: Hold a short - term view of a volatile and weak trend for single - side trading. Continuously look for inverse spread opportunities [48]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: The coal price is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [50]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The iron ore price is expected to be volatile. The molten iron output is expected to decline by 3 - 40,000 tons next week and then rebound. However, the overall black metal fundamentals are becoming more burdensome [52]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the weather in the producing areas and subsequent on - the - spot research [55]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead)**: In the short term, adopt a wait - and - see approach for both single - side trading and arbitrage [57]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: For single - side trading, maintain a wait - and - see view. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities. For domestic - foreign spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy before overseas inventories bottom out [60]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips and positive spreads [63]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper)**: For single - side trading, recommend buying on dips. For arbitrage, maintain a wait - and - see approach [67]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. For the medium - term, pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rallies [71]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Maintain a short - term range - bound trading strategy [73]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: Be cautious when chasing high prices [76]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak [78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market is expected to be volatile [81]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to domestic and foreign policy variables [83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Pay attention to the pressure on processing fees caused by the restart of plants in September and the launch of new production capacity [86]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [89]. 2. Core Views - **Financial Sector**: The US dollar index is affected by the EU's potential secondary sanctions on Russia. US stocks are affected by Nvidia's earnings report and the Fed's interest - rate policy expectations. Chinese stock index futures are influenced by policies to expand service consumption and industrial enterprise profits. Treasury bond futures are affected by industrial enterprise profits and the central bank's open - market operations [14][18][21]. - **Commodity Sector**: Agricultural products are affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, weather, and inventory. Black metals are affected by infrastructure investment, downstream demand, and production restrictions. Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and enterprise production data. Energy chemicals are affected by inventory, supply - demand, and seasonal factors. Shipping indices are affected by port construction and supply - demand in the shipping market [27][38][56][72][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Ukraine and the US will hold a meeting on the 29th. The French prime minister will meet with the opposition to avoid a trust vote. The EU is considering secondary sanctions on Russia, which may cause the US dollar index to fluctuate [12][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's earnings report is slightly below expectations, but the trend of technology giants increasing AI capital expenditure remains unchanged. With the expectation of interest - rate cuts, US stocks are expected to continue to be volatile and strong [16][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in July has narrowed, but the effect of anti - involution policies remains to be seen [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - From January to July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan. Treasury bonds lack the opportunity for continuous upward movement unless the stock market adjusts continuously or the central bank's monetary policy turns unexpectedly loose [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, the estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills is about 10.3025 million tons. It is expected that the arrival in October will be 9 million tons and 7.5 million tons in November. Sino - US relations are the most important uncertain factor affecting the futures price [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From August 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 36.41% month - on - month. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile, waiting for data guidance [28][30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton picking in Xinjiang is expected to be advanced. The growth progress of US cotton is slow, but the excellent - good rate is high. The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the market in the fourth quarter is not optimistic [31][34]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to July, 19,800 urban old - community renovation projects started nationwide. In July, transportation fixed - asset investment was 306.1 billion yuan. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and the upward space is limited [35][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The coking coal futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but there is strong support below after the adjustment [40][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The industry's operating rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has also decreased slightly. The price difference between corn starch and corn has fallen to a low level, and the space for further weakening is limited [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports has decreased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has increased slightly. The corn market is expected to be weak, and short positions can be held [45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The revenue and net profit of Muyuan Co., Ltd. increased significantly in the first half of the year. The short - term hog market is expected to be volatile and weak, and inverse spread opportunities can be explored [47][48]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import volume of coal in Southeast Asia has decreased. The coal price is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [49][50]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fortescue's iron ore shipments reached 198.4 million tons in FY25. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and the molten iron output is expected to decline and then rebound [51][52]. 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main - producing areas of red dates have entered the sugar - increasing period. The red - date futures price is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [54][55]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 26th, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $38.74 per ton. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [56][57]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 26th, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $4.61 per ton. The zinc market is affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and positive spread opportunities can be explored for arbitrage [58][60]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry has proposed an initiative to resist malicious price competition. The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to have a bottom - support, and opportunities for buying on dips and positive spreads can be explored [61][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate expectations and macro - economic factors. The copper price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and buying on dips is recommended for single - side trading [66][67]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Eramet plans to increase its nickel - ore production to 42 million tons this year. The nickel market is affected by supply - demand relationships, and band trading opportunities can be explored in the short term, and shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA's commercial crude oil and refined - oil inventories have decreased. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The caustic - soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, and caution is required when chasing high prices [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has declined. The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has decreased. The PVC market is expected to be volatile [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has increased. The styrene market is expected to be volatile, and domestic and foreign policy variables should be monitored [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. The bottle - chip market is expected to be affected by plant restarts and new production capacity [84][86]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal plans to invest nearly 4 billion euros in port upgrading. The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline [87][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It evaluates market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on different market segments. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - **News**: Trump's potential removal of Fed governors may affect the Fed's independence, and the US housing price growth in June 2023 was the slowest since 2023 [11][12]. - **Review**: Trump's actions pose a challenge to the Fed's independence, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index [13]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The US dollar index faces downward pressure [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The US consumer confidence index in August fell slightly to 97.4, and the Fed responded to Trump's attempt to fire a governor [15][16]. - **Review**: If Trump successfully fires the governor and nominates a dovish official, market expectations of interest - rate cuts will rise, and US stocks may perform well [18]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Interest - rate cut trading continues to support market risk appetite, and US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The State Council promotes high - quality development of service trade, and China will implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [20][21]. - **Review**: The A - share market sentiment has cooled slightly, but there is still upward momentum from the perspective of sentiment and capital [21]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The 17th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from September 8th to 12th, and the central bank conducted a 405.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation [23][24]. - **Review**: The bond market is mainly in a volatile state, and it is difficult to have a sustainable upward trend without special circumstances [26]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious with unilateral long positions; consider using long bond positions to hedge potential stock price corrections [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August, the US may exempt tariffs on Indonesian palm oil, and Malaysia seeks tax exemption for palm oil raw materials [27][28]. - **Review**: The oil market is in a weak and volatile state, and the impact of production changes is not significant [29]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The oil market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in Lvliang is strong, and some coking enterprises have proposed an 8th - round price increase [31]. - **Review**: The coking coal futures may adjust in the short term, but there is strong support below [32]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but strong support after adjustment [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: Pakistan initially bought 30,000 tons of sugar, India urged the sugar industry to reach a consensus on export quotas, and Brazil's sugar exports in August increased slightly [34][35][36]. - **Review**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fell due to factors such as approaching delivery and weak market sentiment [36]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 1 - month contract after a correction, with a target price of around 5,500 yuan/ton [37]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: The daily output of key steel enterprises in mid - August increased, and the national construction machinery start - up rate in July was 44.43% [38][39]. - **Review**: Steel prices continued to fluctuate downward, and the market sentiment was slightly weak [39]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - **News**: Aonong Bio's net profit in the first half of 2025 was 361 million yuan [41]. - **Review**: Near - month pig futures have limited rebound space, and there is a safety margin for the reverse spread structure [41]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold a short - term volatile view on the single - side, and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [41]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - **News**: The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the futures price of the main contract is slightly up [42]. - **Review**: The supply and demand of red dates are weak, and there is uncertainty in production [43]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on weather and research results [43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: Corn starch continues to be weak in both production and sales areas [44]. - **Review**: The spot price of starch is weak, and the CS11 - C11 spread is under pressure [44]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of widening the spread [44]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The growth of new - season corn in Henan is basically normal, with some local drought [45]. - **Review**: Corn futures fluctuate around 2,150 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to new - crop production [46]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads, and pay attention to 11 - 1 reverse spreads if the spread strengthens [46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: The price of steam coal in Beigang was stable on August 26 [47]. - **Review**: The seasonal pressure on coal prices is increasing, and prices are expected to be weak [48]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Coal prices are expected to remain seasonally weak [48]. 2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: The scale of the air - conditioning market from January to July reached 172 billion yuan [49]. - **Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak and volatile state, and the impact of short - term factors on iron ore is limited [49]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak and volatile with limited decline [49]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Tibet Summit's metal production increased significantly in the first half of the year, and the US may add lead to the key minerals list [50][51]. - **Review**: Lead prices fluctuated upward, but there are concerns about supply and demand [51]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [53]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: Tibet Summit's metal production increased significantly in the first half of the year [54]. - **Review**: Zinc prices may fluctuate due to the influence of macro and fundamental factors [55]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading, and pay attention to mid - line positive spread opportunities [55]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: Tongwei sold 161,300 tons of polysilicon in the first half of the year, and there were new developments in photovoltaic project component procurement [56][57]. - **Review**: The price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are concerns about over - supply [58]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a bullish view on dips for single - side trading, and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [59]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The US may add industrial silicon to the key minerals list [60]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weakening, but the price may be affected by other factors [61]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the production resumption of large factories and trade within the range of 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton [61][62]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Galan plans to start production of a lithium project in Argentina in the first half of 2026 [63]. - **Review**: The short - term inventory reduction may support the price, but there is supply uncertainty [64]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips and positive spreads [64]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - **News**: Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund signed a framework agreement with GEM to develop a green nickel processing center [65]. - **Review**: Nickel prices may be affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand [66]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and mid - line short - selling opportunities [67]. 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: The US may add copper to the key minerals list, and there are developments in copper mining projects [68][69][70]. - **Review**: Copper prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the short - term upward trend is not obvious [71]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see strategy for spreads [71]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: API crude oil and refined product inventories decreased [72]. - **Review**: Oil prices are in a range - bound state, waiting for new drivers [72]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Maintain range - bound trading and wait for new drivers [73]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - **News**: The closing price of CEA on August 26 was 69.69 yuan/ton [73]. - **Review**: The carbon market price is in a narrow - range volatile state [73]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [74]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable on August 26 [75]. - **Review**: The price of caustic soda is expected to remain high, but the upward space is limited [77]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious when chasing high prices [77]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - **News**: The price of imported wood pulp showed mixed trends [78]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [78]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate [79]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The price of PVC powder decreased slightly [80]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of PVC are weak, but the price is expected to fluctuate [80]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [80]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - **News**: The export price of bottle chips was partially raised [81]. - **Review**: The inventory of bottle chips is decreasing, but attention should be paid to new capacity [83]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the impact of new capacity on processing fees [83]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - **News**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China will be under maintenance [84]. - **Review**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of PTA has improved, and the price is expected to be strong [84]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - on - dips strategy [85]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: A 500,000 - ton/year styrene plant in Shandong is under maintenance [86]. - **Review**: The situation of styrene in September has improved marginally, but there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [87]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to policy variables at home and abroad [87]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - **News**: The production of a 5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant in Inner Mongolia is reduced [88]. - **Review**: The price of soda ash is weak, and the market sentiment is not strong [88]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [88]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - **News**: The price of float glass in Shahe was stable on August 26 [89]. - **Review**: The glass market is in a volatile state, and the demand improvement is limited [89]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious with single - side trading and focus on spread trading [90]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - **News**: Premier Alliance adjusted its shipping routes [91]. - **Review**: The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [92]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The 10 - month contract will test the support level of 1,300 yuan/FEU [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for nickel is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel industry has experienced different development stages driven by demand and supply. In the past, stainless - steel demand and later new - energy vehicle demand have respectively boosted nickel prices, while subsequent technological breakthroughs and capacity expansions have led to an oversupply situation. The industry cycle that started in 2017 may turn around in 2028, and new demand from solid - state batteries is expected to reverse the current oversupply pattern [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Nickel Iron & Stainless Steel: A Close - knit Relationship 3.1.1 Before 2007: Stainless - steel demand drives nickel price up - From 1997 - 2007, global stainless - steel nickel consumption grew at a CAGR of about 3.3%, accounting for over 60% of nickel end - consumption. After China joined the WTO in 2001, its stainless - steel production increased rapidly, with a CAGR of 44.9% from 2000 - 2005 and 30% from 2005 - 2010. The shortage of supply led to a significant increase in nickel price and a pressing need for stainless - steel cost reduction. During this period, there were changes in the ore end and raw materials, with laterite nickel ore replacing sulfide nickel ore, and the smelting process evolving from one - step to two - step and three - step methods. Chinese enterprises also started using laterite nickel ore to smelt NPI, which became the main raw material for stainless - steel production, reducing costs [18][19][24] 3.1.2 2007 - 2015: Nickel capacity expands rapidly, and weakening stainless - steel demand causes nickel price to decline - High nickel prices attracted many domestic enterprises to produce NPI using laterite nickel ore. Since 2010, domestic nickel ore imports have increased significantly. By 2011, NPI accounted for over 50% of the primary nickel raw materials for stainless - steel production in China. However, stainless - steel demand weakened due to the global economic downturn, leading to a large accumulation of LME nickel inventory and a decline in nickel price [34][35] 3.1.3 RKEF and Oxygen - Enriched Side - Blowing Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - RKEF is the mainstream process for nickel - iron preparation, with advantages such as a short process flow, high production efficiency, and high nickel recovery rate, but it has limitations in terms of cobalt recovery and energy consumption. The oxygen - enriched side - blowing process (OESBF) is more advanced, with better raw - material applicability and lower energy consumption, and it can also recover cobalt. Cost calculations show that the cost of RKEF - produced nickel - iron is about 1333 dollars per physical ton, and the cost of OESBF - produced high - grade nickel matte is about 11,800 dollars per metal ton [38][40][50] 3.2 Intermediate Products: Technological Breakthroughs, Raw - Material Structure Shuffle 3.2.1 2018 - 2022: New - energy demand opens a second growth curve, and the smelting end breaks the binary supply - demand imbalance - With the rapid development of new - energy vehicles, the demand for ternary batteries increased, driving up the demand for nickel. The production of ternary precursors in China increased nearly four - fold from 2020 to 2022. However, the traditional "laterite nickel ore - stainless steel" and "sulfide nickel ore - nickel salt/pure nickel" binary supply - demand pattern could not meet the demand for nickel sulfate, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. Nickel beans/nickel powder were initially popular for producing nickel sulfate due to their short extraction cycle [56][57][62] 3.2.2 2023 - present: Supply - side expansion leads to an industry - wide oversupply - As the profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel decreased, the HPAL process for laterite nickel ore and the production of nickel sulfate from high - grade nickel matte became mainstream. Currently, there is over 400,000 metal tons of MHP wet - process production capacity in Indonesia. The electric - deposition process has matured, leading to a rapid increase in pure - nickel production. The large - scale production of deliverable products has made it difficult to repeat the "short - squeeze" market, but the oversupply situation will continue until demand improves [70][80][84] 3.2.3 HPAL Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - HPAL has a high cobalt - recovery rate, which can significantly offset costs. The cost of HPAL - produced MHP is relatively low. After deducting the cobalt cost, the full cost of MHP is about 7732 dollars per metal ton. The investment cost of wet - process projects is expected to decrease with technological maturity, and the reduction of production cost depends on the increase in cobalt price [88][92][95] 3.3 Current Situation and Outlook of Smelting - End Capacity 3.3.1 Nickel Iron: FENI supply stabilizes after clearance, and NPI capacity reaches a phased peak - After the nickel - iron to high - grade nickel matte conversion process was established and the electric - deposition nickel capacity expanded, nickel iron became a raw material for electric - deposition nickel. However, the price change of nickel iron is difficult to be smoothly transmitted to the market. FENI has experienced production cuts due to high costs, and its supply is expected to remain stable [96][97]