1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - **Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - **Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - **Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - **Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - **Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil)**: Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - **Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp)**: Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the high - frequency data tracking of the European Line, including loading rates, ship schedules, capacities, port congestion, and ship - schedule delays. It shows that the European Line's loading rates are at a relatively high level with minor fluctuations, ship schedules are affected by various factors leading to delays, port congestion is a significant issue in Asia and Europe, and future capacity has some planned and potential changes [7][10][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 European Line Loading Rate - W28 European Line fleet's average loading rate from Chinese ports was 91.7%, a slight increase of 0.4% from the previous period. Due to ship - schedule delays, the sample collection volume was lower than average [7]. - W27 European Line fleet's loading rate from Asian ports was 97.2%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous period. The loading difference between Asian and Chinese ports was about 5.9%, higher than the average from April to May [7]. - OA's Chinese - port loading rate was 94.3%, remaining unchanged; PA and MSC's was 90.6%, also unchanged; Gemini's was 87.9%, increasing by 1 point [7]. 3.2 European Line Ship Schedule and Capacity - W30 - W31 weekly capacities were 277,000 TEU and 325,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in August was 305,000 TEU, slightly higher than July's 291,000 TEU. The average capacity in the first half of August (W33 - 34) was 299,000 TEU, and in the second half was 318,000 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 289,000 TEU [12]. - There were 6 ship - schedule delays from W28 to W29, including 1 from Gemini, 2 from OA, and 3 from MSC. There were also 2 voyages with potential issues [12]. - Due to the continuous pressure on Asian and European port operations, the risk of ship - schedule delays in subsequent weeks is still high, especially from W29 - W32 [10]. 3.3 European Line - Related Port Congestion Data - In China, the superposition of the typhoon season and the export peak will continue to put pressure on domestic ports. The average in - port duration of ships in Qingdao, Yangshan, Ningbo, and Yantian ports has increased [16]. - In Southeast Asia, the port - congestion pressure has rebounded after a brief easing, especially in Port Klang. The average in - port time of ships in Singapore is 1.3 days, and in Port Klang is 2.3 days [16]. - In Europe, problems such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway shutdowns in Germany, and low water levels in the Rhine will gradually appear in the next two months, and European ports will face increasing congestion pressure. Currently, the overall congestion level is lower than the same period last year [16]. 3.4 European Line Ship - Schedule Delays and Warnings - There are multiple ship - schedule delays in W28 - W32 for different alliances such as OA, Gemini, and MSC&PA. For example, in W29, many ships in different routes of these alliances were late - departing, and the departure times were postponed [18][20]. - Warnings are issued for different routes of each alliance in W29 - W34, such as AE1, AE3 for OA; FAL3, CES, NE3 for Gemini; and FE4, FE6 for MSC&PA [20][23][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 11, 2025, the mainstream prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass remained flat week-on-week, hitting record lows with intensified market competition [1][8]. - Last week, one photovoltaic glass production line was cold - repaired, and the industry supply continued to shrink. However, the reduction speed slowed down, and future supply reduction expectations were low. Some manufacturers continued the low - price strategy [1][11]. - The industry demand is weak, and overall orders can't maintain long - term production - sales balance. Some downstream players are stocking at low prices, but the impact on the market is small [1][20]. - The industry inventory is rising and is expected to continue rising due to weak short - term demand recovery and oversupply [1][22]. - The industry's gross profit continued to decline last week, and the loss deepened. Some enterprises are accelerating order - taking at low prices [1][27]. - The future price trend depends on the manufacturers' production reduction rhythm. If the reduction accelerates, prices may stop falling; otherwise, there is still room for price decline [2][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: One production line was cold - repaired last week, supply continued to shrink, reduction speed slowed, and future reduction expectations were low. Some manufacturers used the low - price strategy [1][7][11]. - Demand: Orders are insufficient to maintain production - sales balance. Some downstream players are stocking at low prices, with limited market impact [1][7][20]. - Inventory: Inventory is rising and is expected to continue due to weak demand recovery and oversupply [1][7][22]. - Cost - profit: Gross profit declined last week, and losses deepened. Some enterprises are accelerating order - taking at low prices [1][7][27]. - Price trend: Future price trend depends on production reduction rhythm. Faster reduction may lead to price stabilization; otherwise, prices may fall further [2][7]. 2. Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of July 11, 2025, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 10.5 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated was 18 yuan/square meter, both flat week - on - week, hitting record lows [1][8]. 2.2 Supply - side - One production line was cold - repaired last week, supply continued to shrink, reduction speed slowed, and future supply reduction expectations were low. Some manufacturers continued the low - price strategy [1][11]. 2.3 Demand - side - Industry demand is weak, and overall orders can't maintain long - term production - sales balance. Some downstream players are stocking at low prices, but the impact on the market is small [1][20]. 2.4 Inventory - side - The industry inventory is rising and is expected to continue rising due to weak short - term demand recovery and oversupply [1][22]. 2.5 Cost - profit - side - The industry's gross profit continued to decline last week, and the loss deepened. Some enterprises are accelerating order - taking at low prices [1][27]. 2.6 Trade - side - From January to May 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 6.1% compared with the same period in 2024 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the impact of various events on different financial and commodity markets. Key events include Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, policy changes in the US and China, and supply - demand dynamics in multiple industries. These events lead to different market trends and investment outlooks in various sectors, such as financial futures, commodities like metals, energy, and agricultural products [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1st. Gold showed strong performance on Friday due to increased market risk aversion. However, the strength is less than in April because of the strong US dollar and lower uncertainty. Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term but remain in a volatile range [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The EU extended the suspension of counter - measures to negotiate with the US. Trump's tariff policy is expected to increase short - term market risk aversion, causing the US dollar index to rise. The US dollar is expected to continue rising in the short - term [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and the US strengthened communication, and the Chinese government promoted a long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds. The A - share market is over - valued, and the index is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New tariff threats may delay the Fed's interest rate cut and make the inflation outlook unclear. Trump's 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may lead to market risk aversion. US stock indices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to control positions carefully [22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended that trading desks moderately buy Treasury bonds and sell them after the futures rebound [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On July 11th, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. High temperatures increased power plant demand, and port inventories decreased. Coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - In June, the monthly operating rate of China's construction machinery decreased. Iron ore prices rebounded, but the 100 - dollar key level is difficult to break through. It is recommended to wait and see [29][30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was lower than expected, and it is expected to increase in the 29th week. After the release of the double - monthly reports, the oil market will enter the next stage of expected trading. Different oils have different investment suggestions [31][32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Analysts estimated that the US soybean crushing volume in June decreased by 4% from May but increased by 5.5% year - on - year. USDA raised the end - of - season soybean inventory. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the basis is expected to remain weak [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar - waiting ships increased, and its 2025 sugarcane production is expected to decline. Pakistan is seeking to purchase 30 - 500,000 tons of sugar. The international sugar price is expected to stabilize and weakly rebound in the short - term, but the upside is limited [37][38][39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Xinjiang's cotton topping work is basically completed. USDA's July report raised the end - of - season cotton inventory in the US and globally. ICE cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term [42][44][45]. 3.2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is strong, and the expectation of a coke price increase is rising. The short - term rise is mainly affected by macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [47][48]. 3.2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail and wholesale of passenger cars in early July showed different trends, and the dealer inventory coefficient increased. The steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to be cautious about going long and use a hedging strategy for spot [53][54]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch widened slightly. Corn starch inventory increased, and the future is uncertain [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. If the inventory and auction data continue to be bearish, the spot price in the northern port may decline slightly, and it is recommended to short new - crop contracts in advance [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Osisko may expand a copper deposit in Quebec, and Codelco's copper production increased by 9% in the first half of the year. The global macro - expectation risk is rising, and the copper price may be under pressure in the short - term [58][60][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62][63][64]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's lithium carbonate production increased in June and is expected to rise in July. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be strong in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [65][66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Wuxi Suntech found a new trustee. Polysilicon companies raised their quotes. The price is expected to be bullish in general but may correct in the short - term [67][68][69]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan's industrial silicon production increased during the flood season, and Xinjiang's production decreased. The industrial silicon price has strong resistance to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [70][71][72]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A central China lead smelter resumed production. The lead price is expected to rise in the long - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term [73][74][75]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc inventories decreased, and the 0 - 3 spread increased. The zinc price is expected to be mainly affected by macro factors in the short - term, and it is recommended to manage positions carefully [76][78][79]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA futures price decreased on July 11th. The EU carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [80][82]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia plans to compensate for over - production from August to September. IEA lowered the global crude oil demand growth forecast. The oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83][84]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories' export quotes are mostly stable, and they plan to cut production in July. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying on dips [85][87]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further [87][88]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The pulp price is expected to have limited upside due to unchanged supply - demand [89]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market is consolidating. PVC prices are expected to have limited upside due to deteriorating fundamentals [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [91]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe increased. The glass price is expected to have a large fluctuation range, and it is recommended to use an arbitrage strategy [92][93]. 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo - Zhoushan Port ranked seventh in the global shipping center. The EC2508 futures price is expected to oscillate between 1950 - 2050 in the short - term [94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large factories in Xinjiang will have a significant impact on the fundamentals of industrial silicon. The failure of large factories in Xinjiang to resume production as expected has led to a marginal improvement in the fundamentals of industrial silicon. For polysilicon, in response to the government's "anti - involution" policy, polysilicon enterprises have raised their offers, but the actual transactions are yet to be seen. The price increase of polysilicon depends on the implementation of production cuts and the price increase of downstream products [2][3] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds and wait for right - hand signals. For polysilicon, although it is generally bullish, short - term callback risks should be noted, and attention can be paid to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2509 contract of industrial silicon increased by 435 yuan/ton to 8415 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8850 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 5820 yuan/ton to 41330 yuan/ton. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material this week increased by 2400 yuan/ton to 37100 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories' Resumption of Production Falling Short of Expectations, and Attention to the Implementation of PV Anti - Involution Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose significantly. The weekly output was 72,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month - on - month, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons month - on - month. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, industrial silicon may have a monthly de - stocking of 60,000 tons. If it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may have a monthly inventory build - up of 30,000 tons. The market transaction price of 99 silicon powder rose to about 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [12] Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon bottomed out and rebounded. The overall enterprise operating rate this week was 70.9%, the weekly output was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, and the inventory was 48,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41% [12][13] Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures continued to rise sharply. The quoted price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material ranges from 43 to 49 yuan/kg, but there are no actual transactions yet. It is expected that the polysilicon production schedule in July will increase to 110,000 tons, and it will enter a monthly inventory build - up state. As of July 10, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 276,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [13] Silicon Wafers - This week, the quoted price of silicon wafers was significantly increased, but there were no market transactions yet. The production schedule in July is expected to be 52GW, a month - on - month decrease of more than 10%. As of July 10, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 18.13GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09GW [14] Battery Cells - This week, the quoted price of battery cells was significantly increased. The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to be 54GW, still in an oversupply state. As of July 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.86GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.33GW [15] Components - This week, the component price was stalemate. The 7 - month component production schedule is expected to be 45GW. The difficulty in component price increase lies in its lag and the preferential issues in downstream actual procurement [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds of industrial silicon. Observing right - hand signals such as large factories' resumption of production and warehouse receipt registration may be safer [17] Polysilicon - Generally, a bullish view is taken on polysilicon, but short - term callback risks should be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [17] 3.4 Hot News Collation - From the settlement on July 14, 2025, the daily price limit of polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10% [18] - Hongyuan Green Energy intends to participate in the pre - reorganization of Wuxi Suntech. Its subsidiary will cooperate with Wuxi Suntech for production and operation management [18] - Runyang's Yunnan base resumed full - load production in 10 days, breaking the industry record [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) trends of lithium carbonate as "oscillating", with an amplitude of - 5% - +5% [51]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate strongly due to the better - than - expected demand in the off - season, the rapid increase of ore prices following the market, and the slow generation of new warehouse receipts. In the long term, the market may return to a downward channel under the pressure of over - supply [2][3]. - The supply - side pressure is limited. During the rebound, the profit margin of the lithium salt processing link did not significantly increase, and the import pressure has decreased in the past two months. The focus of market competition lies in the demand side, and the trading situation in the spot market needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying at low prices and positive spreads in the short term, while waiting for a more suitable time to enter the market for medium - term short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Turns to Oscillation and Consolidation, and Downstream Buying Orders Are Gradually Released - Last week (07/07 - 07/11), lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 changed by - 1.2% and +1.6% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. The decline of lithium hydroxide narrowed. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened to 0.63 million yuan/ton [2][12]. - The market rebounded rapidly to the 65,000 - yuan level and then oscillated narrowly between 64,000 - 65,000 yuan. Due to the lag in price adjustment by third - party quotation agencies, the downstream's fear of purchasing increased, and the basis weakened. After the market entered the oscillation phase, downstream inquiries and transactions increased, indicating that the demand in the off - season was better than expected [2]. - Looking forward, the supply - side pressure is limited. The profit window of the lithium salt processing link has not significantly opened, and the import pressure has decreased. The focus of market competition is on the demand side [3]. 3.2. Weekly Review of Industry News - Hunan Chenzhou discovered 490 million tons of lithium ore. The Jijiaoshan mining area in Linwu County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, discovered a super - large altered granite - type lithium deposit, with 490 million tons of lithium ore and 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources [16]. - Premier restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe. After improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate, Premier African Minerals restarted the operation of the Zulu lithium - tantalum project in Zimbabwe on July 6, with an estimated mineral resource of 526,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and 1,025 tons of tantalum pentoxide [16]. - In the first half of the year, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China increased by 47.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.9%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 299.6GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.3% [17]. - The previously restarted production capacity continued to be released, and the output of lithium carbonate increased in June. In June, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The planned output for July is 79,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% [17]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continued to Rebound - The spot average price of lithium concentrate showed an upward trend [18]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract and the term structure showed certain fluctuations [21]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Increased - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a slight upward trend [13]. 3.3.4. Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicles Continued to Reduce Inventory in June - In June, the new energy vehicle market in China continued the inventory reduction trend, and relevant indicators such as production, sales, and penetration rate were monitored [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stock markets rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US dollar index strengthening. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues are causing market uncertainty and potential volatility [1][2] - The US is imposing high reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, aiming to pressure trade partners into reaching agreements. The US dollar may remain strong in the short - term, but faces downward pressure in the medium - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stock markets rose, bond yields mostly increased, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.4, and the spot commodity index rose, with Brent crude oil up 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with US stocks falling and A - shares rising. The S&P 500 dropped 0.31%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues may cause the stock market to face downward pressure and adjustment risks [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.41%. Eurozone government bonds mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US bond supply pressure is not fully reflected, but inflation pressure is increasing, and bond yields are expected to continue rising [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.12%, the euro dropped 0.77%, the pound fell 1.16%, the yen declined 2.05%, and the Swiss franc dropped 0.33%. The Brazilian real and the South African rand fell more than 2%, and the South Korean won, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, etc. also declined [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce. The upcoming US tariffs increased market risk aversion, and gold prices are expected to remain high with potential increased volatility. Brent crude oil rose 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but the US tariff on copper imports caused Comex copper to strengthen, and the commodity spot index rose [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US reciprocal tariffs are back, and market volatility has intensified. The US is imposing high tariffs on multiple countries, and the trade negotiation progress is slow. The US dollar may be strong in the short - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [33][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Events - China's June foreign trade and financial data, the second - quarter GDP, the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book, Japan's June CPI, and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, risk appetite has rebounded, but in the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. Although the recent trend of treasury bonds is relatively weak, the logic of activities like "transfer trade" is not sustainable. The long - term fundamental situation remains unchanged. Once risk appetite starts to decline and there are incremental positive factors, the bond market will strengthen non - linearly. Therefore, it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [2][14][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 7th to July 13th, treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. On Monday, with a calm market news and slightly tightened funding, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and the 30Y interest rate rose slightly due to the news of ultra - long special treasury bond issuance. On Tuesday, as trade conflict intensity was within market expectations, rising certificate of deposit (CD) rates and a strong stock market led to an oscillating decline in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, the stock market weakened while long - term treasury bond futures strengthened, and the short - term ones were relatively weak with a flattening yield curve. On Thursday, the market sentiment improved marginally in the morning but then the stock market soared, causing the bond market to weaken. In the afternoon, the expectation of real - estate stabilizing policies led to a plunge in treasury bond futures. On Friday, with balanced funding, the bond market fluctuated with the stock market. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market is still difficult to strengthen next week. With the arrival of the tax period, the funding will marginally tighten, and the expected strong economic data in June and high risk appetite will suppress the bond market. However, in the long - run, it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Strategies include holding long positions, paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in treasury bond futures, and stopping profit on the strategy of steepening the yield curve first and then looking for new opportunities [2][14][15][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - rate bonds were issued with a total issuance of 69 billion yuan and a net financing of 46.2369 billion yuan, up 17.6781 billion and 8.579 billion yuan respectively from last week. 45 local government bonds were issued with a total issuance of 23.179 billion yuan and a net financing of 11.0229 billion yuan, up 15.9651 billion and 8.858 billion yuan respectively. 454 CDs were issued with a total issuance of 42.713 billion yuan and a net financing of - 8.339 billion yuan, up 18.416 billion and down 8.057 billion yuan respectively [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 11th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.53%, 1.66%, and 1.87% respectively, up 4.28, 3.41, 2.05, and 1.95 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.50%, 1.61%, and 1.71% respectively, up 5.03, 4.51, and 3.13 basis points from last weekend [30] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 38,238, 66,066, 72,274, and 98,226 lots respectively, up 7,022, 7,450, 1,993, and 16,442 lots from last weekend. The open interests were 124,636, 202,629, 244,640, and 150,356 lots respectively, with changes of - 673, + 9,156, + 4,737, and + 6,317 lots from last weekend [38][43] 3.3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. With balanced and loose funding, the basis of futures oscillated narrowly. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%, and the current CD rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, resulting in relatively few positive arbitrage opportunities [48] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 11th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures between the 2509 and 2512 contracts were - 0.100, - 0.105, - 0.040, and + 0.180 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.024, - 0.020, + 0.045, and + 0.050 yuan from last weekend. The far - term contracts adjusted more this week [53] 3.4 Weekly Observation of Funding - The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations this week. As of July 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.51%, 1.47%, 1.33%, and 1.48% respectively, up 0.86, 0.58, 2.80, and 5.20 basis points from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.21 trillion yuan, up 0.61 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.57%, slightly lower than last week [57][60][63] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose slightly. As of July 11th, the US dollar index rose 0.91% to 97.8731 from last weekend, the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.43%, up 8 basis points from last weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 276.7 basis points [67] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose this week. As of July 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,612.73, 6,281.86, and 1,679.68 points respectively, up 55.22, 65.52, and 29.21 points from last weekend. Agricultural product prices also rose, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits at 20.60, 4.42, and 7.45 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.02, 0.08, and 0.15 yuan/kg from last weekend [70] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The Fed's internal divergence on the interest - rate cut path is significant. The market is closely watching the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and the prices of gold, the US dollar index, and other financial products are affected by the market's expectations of the Fed's policies and actual economic data [15][20]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The real estate sector was boosted by news on July 10, but the policy content is still uncertain. The real estate market needs coordinated efforts on both the supply and demand sides to stabilize. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [24][25]. - **Bond Market**: The re - balance of fundamentals and risk appetite is the core reason for the recent strength of the stock market and the weakness of the bond market. However, the sustainability of the current trading is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [30]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of natural gas has changed from short - supply to balance, and high prices are no longer sustainable; the soybean market is affected by production and export data; the copper market is affected by tariff policies [7][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. Gold prices are oscillating and approaching the 60 - day moving average [14][15]. - **Investment Advice**: Gold prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and tariff progress [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - **News**: The US and the EU have not reached a trade agreement, and the Fed is expected to manage the balance - sheet reduction [17][20]. - **Investment Advice**: The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Policies to support employment and boost consumption have been introduced. The real estate sector rose on July 10 [22][24]. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts, and the US stock market is affected by economic resilience and interest - rate cut expectations, but there are risks of correction [26][28]. - **Investment Advice**: Be aware of the risk of correction in the US stock market [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The balance of fundamentals and risk appetite affects the stock and bond markets [30]. - **Investment Advice**: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: Brazil's soybean production forecast remains unchanged, and exports are expected to decline in July. The USDA's weekly export sales report met expectations [32][33][34]. - **Investment Advice**: The prices of domestic and foreign futures are expected to oscillate temporarily. Pay attention to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in early July, and the inventory increased in June. The market is affected by supply and demand [35][36]. - **Investment Advice**: The report has a limited negative impact on the market. The price of palm oil is expected to oscillate in the third quarter, and it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: The Philippines and Pakistan have introduced policies to ensure sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June is expected to decline [38][39][40]. - **Investment Advice**: The domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the quotation of processed sugar and the resistance level of 5900 yuan [41][42]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: China's automobile production and sales increased in the first half of the year, and the inventory of steel products decreased slightly [43][44]. - **Investment Advice**: The steel market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a hedging strategy on rallies [45]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: Indonesia's coal exports decreased in the first five months of 2025. High - temperature weather supports coal prices [46]. - **Investment Advice**: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in July [46]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: China has made breakthroughs in ore exploration in the first half of 2025, and iron ore prices have rebounded with the market sentiment [47][48]. - **Investment Advice**: Do not chase the high price. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [48][49]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch - sugar products has changed, and the market demand is not good [50]. - **Investment Advice**: The inventory cycle of starch changes quickly, and there is high uncertainty in the future [50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The inventory of corn processing enterprises has increased, and the market sentiment is weak, but the price remains stable under the influence of the macro - environment [51][52]. - **Investment Advice**: New - crop short positions can be lightly entered in advance, and continue to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: Trump plans to impose a 50% import tariff on copper, including semi - finished products. The LME inventory is an important observation indicator [54][57]. - **Investment Advice**: Shanghai copper is expected to be under pressure at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: The price limit and margin standards of polysilicon futures have been adjusted, and the price of silicon wafers has increased [58]. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the market needs to observe whether the increased prices can be transacted [59]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly on July 10. The production in different regions is expected to change [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies and manage positions on the left side [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME lead spread is at a discount, a lead smelter has resumed production, and the social inventory has increased [62][63][64]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and the Sell Put opportunity below. Consider the internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunity [64]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME zinc spread is at a premium, the zinc mine tender price has been released, and the inventory has increased [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see in the short term. Manage positions for existing short positions and consider the opportunity of mid - term positive arbitrage [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - **News**: Indonesia's nickel production in the first half of 2025 is far from the quota, and the supply - demand pressure of nickel is still large [68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range at a low level in the short term. Consider the opportunity of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: China's power - battery loading volume increased in the first half of 2025. The market focus is on the demand side [71][72]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive arbitrage. Avoid short positions for now [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of liquefied petroleum gas decreased, and the inventory increased [73][74]. - **Investment Advice**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - **News**: The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week, and the market supply - demand situation has changed [76]. - **Investment Advice**: The Nymex natural gas price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the supply and demand have changed [78]. - **Investment Advice**: It is difficult for the price to continue rising after the basis convergence [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - **News**: The price of imported wood pulp has shown a rising trend, and the futures price has also increased [79]. - **Investment Advice**: The upward space of pulp prices is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The price of PVC powder has increased, but the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing [80][81]. - **Investment Advice**: The upward space of PVC prices is limited [81]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased slightly this week [82]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait for the valuation of pure benzene to converge before allocating far - month contracts [83]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - **News**: The downstream start - up rate of PTA has decreased, and the demand is weak in the off - season [84][85]. - **Investment Advice**: PTA prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [85]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - **News**: The export price of bottle chips has been adjusted, and the factory will implement production cuts in July [86][87]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee of bottle chips by rolling on dips [87]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - **News**: The renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight for 2025 has been announced, which will affect the green certificate market [88]. - **Investment Advice**: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [89]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - **News**: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased, and the market is oscillating at a low level [90]. - **Investment Advice**: Maintain the view of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [90]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - **News**: The inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased slightly, and the price has increased [91][92]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider the long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - variety arbitrage strategy [92]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - **News**: MSC has adjusted its shipping services, and the spot market is mixed [93][94]. - **Investment Advice**: The container freight rate index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) futures have the economic logic basis to be used as a hedging tool for Company B, and can hedge the spot price. The futures price can effectively reflect the fluctuation trend of the spot freight rate, and the spot and futures prices are positively correlated [1][27]. - The supply of the European Line is relatively loose. The peak freight rate in the peak season from July to August is expected to move forward slightly compared with the previous expectation. After that, the downward slope of the freight rate will mainly depend on the scale of blank sailings in August. From September to October, the market will gradually enter the off - season, and the freight rate may decline faster. Considering the Spring Festival in 2026, the peak of the year - end peak season will probably appear in mid - January. Overall, it will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and attention should be paid to the potential disturbances of geopolitical risks [2]. - To prevent price risk events after locking the forward freight rate with customers, it is recommended that Company B buy container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts when the price drops, and close the futures positions after purchasing the shipping space, so as to make up for the losses caused by the cost increase with the profits in the futures account. It is recommended to buy futures for hedging at low prices for the sold orders [3]. - The hedging business of enterprises requires the close cooperation of multiple departments, and there should be a scientific decision - making process and strict risk control measures [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Feasibility Analysis of Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging - **Risk Exposures in Different Links of the Shipping Industry Chain**: Upstream shipping companies face the risk of falling forward freight rates and can use selling hedging; mid - stream freight forwarders have two - way risk exposures and can use both buying and selling hedging according to the order cycle; downstream foreign trade enterprises face the risk of rising freight rates and can use buying hedging [14]. - **Analysis of Company B's Risk Exposures**: Company B's risk exposure comes from the time difference between "locking orders and booking cabins", with a large scale of 2500 FEU, concentrated time windows around June and September, complex driving factors dominated by geopolitics, and far - reaching multi - dimensional business conduction effects [17][23]. - **Feasibility Analysis of Company B's Futures Hedging**: The correlation between the WCI Shanghai - Rotterdam container freight rate and the settlement price of the active contract month of the container shipping index (European Line) futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 0.7487, indicating that the futures contract can be used as a hedging tool for Company B, but basis risk should be noted [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis of Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - **Exceeding Expectations in Demand in the First Half of the Year and Return to Seasonal Normalcy**: From January to April, China's container shipping volume exported to Europe increased by 9% cumulatively. The substitution effect of Asian production capacity for European local production capacity is the core driving force for the strong growth of China - Europe trade. In the short term, China - Europe trade still has support, but the growth rate of cargo volume may converge in the second and third quarters [28]. - **Moderate Increase in the Pressure of Excess Supply on the European Line**: In the second half of the year, the pressure of new ship deliveries remains high. The upper and lower limits of the European Line's weekly capacity have increased, and the market has shifted from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition. The tariff issue between China and the United States may have an impact on the European Line, and port congestion has a limited impact on the supply side [37][42][56]. - **Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025**: It is expected that the peak freight rate in the peak season from July to August will move forward slightly, and the downward slope of the freight rate after that will depend on the scale of blank sailings in August. From September to October, the freight rate may decline faster. The peak of the year - end peak season will probably appear in mid - January. The European Line will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and geopolitical risks should be noted [70]. 3.3. Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging Plan - **Calculation of the Optimal Hedge Ratio**: The optimal hedge ratio is 0.83, and the hedging efficiency can reach 74.2%. The container shipping index (European Line) futures hedging can transfer 61.7% of the risk, and the residual risk mainly comes from the delay in the convergence of spot and futures prices, basis mutations caused by policy shocks, and liquidity premium fluctuations [76][88][101]. - **Impact of Value - Added Tax on Container Freight Rates**: In the hedging operation, the impact of value - added tax is crucial. Company B's value - added tax treatment needs to be comprehensively judged according to the nature of the service, the way of contract signing, and whether it meets the tax - exemption policy. The subsequent plan does not consider the impact of value - added tax [103]. - **Impact of Container Freight Rate Basis**: The container freight rate basis fluctuates significantly, and its core driving factors include supply - demand imbalance, macro and policy shocks, and seasonal demand fluctuations. Basis risk affects the hedging effect, and Company B can optimize the hedging strategy from three aspects [109][110][112]. - **Futures Hedging Strategy**: It is recommended that Company B buy container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts at low prices for the sold orders. For the 400 - 500 FEU in July, it can choose EC08 and EC10 contracts, and the theoretical minimum hedging funds required are about 401.32 million yuan, with a total recommended deposit of about 892.32 million yuan [114][115]. - **Ending Method of Hedging**: The container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts use cash settlement. The hedging position can be closed through reverse operations in the futures market [116]. 3.4. Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging Risk Control System - **Decision - Making Process of Hedging**: In the market analysis stage, it is necessary to evaluate macro variables, focus on the supply - demand structure of the industry, and combine technical analysis and quantitative tools to verify macro and fundamental conclusions [117]. - **Risk Control Measures for Hedging**: No specific content provided in the given text.