Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hubs Monitoring 20250709 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute - Department: Black and Shipping Department - Analyst: Lan Xi - Qualification Number: F03086543 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016590 Core Viewpoints - In Asia, the superposition of typhoon season and export peak season will continue to put pressure on domestic port operations. The average stay time of ships in Qingdao and Yangshan Port is increasing, and port congestion in South China has slightly worsened. Congestion in Southeast Asia has significantly improved, and port operations are expected to cool down. [4] - In Europe, the previous strikes have continuously affected the operation of Antwerp Port. High - temperature weather, low Rhine water levels, and German railway construction have led to high utilization rates of German port yards and slow ship operations. Summer vacations and labor shortages will increase the risk of congestion in European ports. [4] - In North America, the scale of ships in the ports of the western United States has slightly increased, but the overall congestion is controllable, and the stay time of ships in ports has not significantly extended. [4] Data Summary 1. Port Ship Stay Time | Port Region | Latest Period (hours) | Month - on - Month Change (hours) | Year - on - Year Change (hours) | Monthly Average (hours) | Last Year's Same Period (hours) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yangshan, China | 53.8 | 4.3 | 24.2 | 49.5 | 29.6 | | Ningbo, China | 42.0 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 40.1 | 37.6 | | Singapore, Southeast Asia | 35.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 31.4 | 33.9 | | Port Klang, Southeast Asia | 27.1 | - 22.1 | - 45.3 | 49.2 | 72.3 | | Busan, South Korea | 27.3 | - 4.1 | - 5.1 | 31.4 | 32.4 | | Rotterdam, Northwest Europe | 51.5 | - 6.2 | - 6.2 | 57.7 | 57.7 | | Hamburg, Northwest Europe | 68.6 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 58.6 | 59.8 | | Felixstowe, Northwest Europe | 55.1 | - 4.0 | - 1.0 | 59.1 | 56.1 | | Valencia, Mediterranean | 38.8 | - 3.9 | - 8.9 | 42.7 | 47.8 | | Piraeus, Mediterranean | 53.6 | - 5.0 | 4.4 | 58.5 | 49.2 | | Long Beach, Western US | 101.7 | - 6.9 | - 2.1 | 108.6 | 103.8 | | Los Angeles, Western US | 108.1 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 101.3 | 97.7 | | New York, Eastern US | 48.2 | 4.9 | - 15.1 | 43.3 | 63.3 | | Savannah, Eastern US | 49.0 | 3.3 | - 25.5 | 45.7 | 74.5 | | Santos, South America | 71.5 | 25.4 | - 32.3 | 46.1 | 103.7 | [7] 2. Port Ship Quantity and Waiting/Staying Time - **Asia**: Yangshan Port, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo Port, Qingdao, Singapore Port, and Port Klang have different numbers of ships at anchor/berth and average waiting/staying times. For example, Yangshan Port's average waiting/staying times are 29.6 hours/24.9 hours, and the latest number of ships at anchor/berth is 7/23. [4] - **Europe**: Ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia also have corresponding data. For example, Rotterdam's average waiting/staying times are 12.9 hours/41.4 hours, and the latest number of ships at anchor/berth is 3/29. [4] - **North America**: Ports like Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston have their own data. For example, Long Beach's average waiting/staying times are 0 hours/116.2 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berth is 2/26. [4] 3. Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - The arrival situations of large - scale container ships at ports such as Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port are monitored, including different ship - size categories (e.g., 1.2 - 1.7w and 1.7w+). [37] - The arrival situations of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) at ports in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean are also monitored. [40][45] - The passage situations of container ships through key hubs such as the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are presented, including the number of ships and container throughput. [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price trend is expected to be volatile [16] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation of various stock indices [19] - US Dollar: Short - term volatility is expected [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Be cautious about the risk of correction [26] - Treasury Bond Futures: Long positions can be held, and trading positions should be treated with a volatile mindset [29] - Soybean Meal: Domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [31] - Live Pigs: Mainly operate with range - bound trading [34] - Rebar/HRC: On the spot side, it is recommended to hedge on rallies [38] - Corn Starch: Future uncertainty is high [39] - Corn: New crop short positions can consider entering the market lightly in advance [42] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] - Iron Ore: Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] - Coking Coal/Coke: Pay attention to the sustainability of demand, and the upside space may be limited [46] - Copper: The market is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish strategy [50] - Lead: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and consider short - put opportunities [52] - Zinc: Look for opportunities to short on rallies and manage positions well [56] - Nickel: In the short - term, it is expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [58] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [62] - LPG: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile with insufficient upward drivers [66] - Crude Oil: Short - term range - bound trading is expected [69] - Styrene: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and consider medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [72] - Caustic Soda: The short - term market is expected to be volatile [74] - Pulp: The market is expected to be volatile [77] - PVC: The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] - Bottle Chips: Look for opportunities to expand processing margins by buying on dips [80] - PX: Short - term volatility adjustment, and the medium - term gap will widen [82] - PTA: Short - term price volatility adjustment, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [84] - Soda Ash: Maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [85] - Float Glass: Consider long glass and short soda ash cross - variety arbitrage [86] - Container Freight Rate: The central price of the market may move up further [87] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, which impact the inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve, the risk appetite of the market, and the confidence in terminal demand growth [22][49] - The inflation data in June deviated slightly from expectations, with CPI exceeding expectations and PPI falling short. The overall price level is still low, and the upstream price decline is obvious, but it has little impact on market risk preference [28] - In the commodity market, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by seasonal factors, some by production and inventory changes, and some by policy adjustments [33][43][62] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The 10 - year US Treasury auction data is good, and the Fed's meeting minutes show reduced economic uncertainty. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, supported near the 60 - day moving average. Short - term gold prices are expected to be volatile [14][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. The stock market rose and then fell, with cooling market sentiment but still high trading volume. The core factors are the uncertainty of overseas tariff policies and the mismatch between corporate profit growth and valuation [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show differences among officials in inflation expectations. Trump announced new tariff letters. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [21][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU is urging the US to lift tariffs. The Fed's meeting minutes show differences in interest rate expectations. The US stock market is at a position with insufficient pricing of negative factors, and there is a risk of correction [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In June, CPI exceeded expectations and PPI fell short. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and long positions can be held [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the July supply - demand report. Market concerns about trade wars and US soybean exports are increasing. Domestic soybean meal spot is weak. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile [30][31] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales increased in the first half of the year. In July, the supply is still high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with intensified long - short competition. It is recommended to trade within a range [32][33][34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car market retail sales increased in June. Peru imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [35][36][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch production and operating rates decreased this week, and inventory increased. The demand is in the off - season, and future uncertainty is high [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Port corn inventories decreased. Market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short new crop corn lightly in advance [40][41][42] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - Due to high - temperature weather, coal demand increased. Although production and transportation were affected by rain, prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Russian company invested in an iron ore project. Ore prices rebounded with the black market, but the upside is limited. Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The market is affected by macro factors, and the upside space may be limited [45][46] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A mining company's copper production increased. Argentina adjusted mining policies. Chile is waiting for US communication on copper tariffs. Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term [47][48][50] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is in contango. A lead mine may enter the Chinese market in the third - quarter. Lead prices are expected to rise gradually, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [51][52] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is in contango. A zinc mine plans to expand production. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [53][55][56] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian company acquired a nickel mine stake. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level in the short - term, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - New lithium ore was discovered in Hunan, and a lithium project in Zimbabwe restarted. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [60][61][62] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (LPG) - India plans to increase LPG imports from the US. US C3 inventory increased. LPG prices are expected to be weakly volatile [63][64][66] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current production until the end of the year. US EIA crude inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short - term [67][68][69] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increased. Pure benzene is expected to reduce inventory in July - August, but downstream profit margins have decreased. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [69][70][72] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The decline in caustic soda prices has basically ended, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. The market is expected to be volatile [75][77] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices rose, but the fundamentals are weakening. The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory prices are stable. The industry plans to reduce production in July, and pay attention to opportunities to expand processing margins [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and the medium - term gap will widen [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot basis is stable. Demand is under pressure in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [83][84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are volatile. With high inventory levels, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices are stable. The market is expected to be volatile, and a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy is recommended [86] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container freight rates are expected to rise, but there are also negative factors [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased policy uncertainty and market volatility [14][15] - Various commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, such as the impact of tariff threats on palm oil exports, the production pressure on Ferrexpo's iron ore, and the adjustment of the expected price of polysilicon [2][30][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.02%, lower than the expected 3.13% and the previous value of 3.20%. Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper, and the equal - tariff is postponed to August 1. Gold lacks the impetus to break through and rise, and there is a risk of decline in the short term [9][10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper, threatens to impose sanctions on Russia, and the tariff deadline on August 1 will not be postponed. Market risk appetite is affected, and the dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term [12][13][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - National leaders inspected Shanxi, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. The A - share market sentiment is high, and it is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US June one - year inflation expectation dropped to a five - month low. Trump threatens to impose a 50% copper tariff, and tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are expected. The industry tariff pressure increases, and there is a risk of US stock market correction [20][21][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise marginally from July to August, and long positions can be held and bought on dips [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 7.3%, and the US cotton growth progress was slightly slow but the excellent rate was higher. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [26][27][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Due to US tariff threats, Indonesia's palm oil exports to the US are expected to decline. Palm oil prices rose significantly yesterday, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a callback [30][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises in production areas are in a loss state, and the starch inventory cycle changes rapidly with high uncertainty [32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction on July 8 cooled down, and it is recommended to enter short positions on new crops lightly in advance [33][34] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic steam coal exists. The daily consumption of steam coal is high in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable in July [35] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of excavators in June increased year - on - year, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [36][38][39] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Ferrexpo's iron ore production in the second quarter was under pressure. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair of coking coal [40] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount. The lead price center may gradually rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the external reverse arbitrage opportunity [41] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expected price of polysilicon was significantly increased, but there are still problems in reality. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount, and the zinc market is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. It is recommended to short on rallies, arrange medium - term positive arbitrage, and maintain the medium - term positive arbitrage idea externally [44] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The output of organic silicon increased. The industrial silicon price may face a downward risk, and it is recommended to short on rallies [45][46][47] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel raw materials began to weaken, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [48][49] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium carbonate project's environmental impact assessment was accepted. It is recommended to buy on dips and arrange positive arbitrage [50][51] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - EIA lowered the forecast of US crude oil production growth this year, and API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [52][53][54] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rose slightly, and it is expected to adjust in the short term and the supply gap will widen in the medium term [54][55] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices fluctuated, and the basis declined. It is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of PX maintenance on the supply - demand gap in the medium term [56][57] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices were lowered, and it is recommended to increase the processing fee of bottle chips on dips [58][59][60] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [60][61][62] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp fluctuated, and it is expected to fluctuate in the market [62] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device is expected to be put into production. The pure benzene futures were listed, and the styrene - pure benzene spread narrowed. There may be a long - term allocation opportunity for pure benzene [63][64][66] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices fluctuated slightly, and the market is expected to have limited upside [67] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The construction of national zero - carbon parks was launched, and CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [68][69] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices were weak and fluctuating, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [70] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market were stable. It is recommended to use the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [71][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole fluctuated significantly in June, following the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices. The inventory, valuation, production, and apparent demand of chemical products showed mixed trends. There are potential arbitrage opportunities in several cross - variety combinations [2][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - **Energy Price Fluctuations**: In June, affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated violently, rising from $65 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel and then dropping to $67 per barrel. The domestic thermal coal price stabilized after a continuous decline [2][10]. - **Inventory Situation**: In June, chemical inventory showed mixed changes. PTA, caustic soda, PVC, staple fiber, and EG had obvious destocking, while bottle chips and urea had relatively obvious inventory accumulation [2][15]. - **Valuation Changes**: In June, the valuation of the chemical industry changed little. EB and PX had relatively obvious valuation expansion, mainly benefiting from the sharp fluctuations in crude oil [2][15]. - **Production Volume**: In June, the chemical production volume showed mixed changes month - on - month. PX and EB were worthy of attention. Their production volume continued to expand due to profit repair. However, the space for further growth of PX production volume is limited, while EB is expected to continue growing [15]. - **Apparent Demand**: In the first five months, the apparent demand of most chemical products showed a differentiated trend. The apparent demand of glass, soda ash, and PVC had relatively obvious negative growth, while that of EB, MEG, urea, and PE showed a significant growth trend [2][15]. 3.2 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Concerns - **Glass - Soda Ash 09 Arbitrage**: Photovoltaic glass production cuts are underway, which will put pressure on the subsequent demand for soda ash. Glass, with obviously reduced supply and a continuously high basis, may be relatively resistant to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on glass and short on soda ash [3][41]. - **Bottle Chips - PTA - Ethylene Glycol Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The self - disciplined production cuts in the bottle chip industry are underway. Since it is unsustainable for the long - term processing fee to be lower than the enterprise's cash flow, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at low prices [3][26]. - **PX - BZ Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: Under high imports, the supply and demand of pure benzene are barely balanced, but PX is expected to continue significant destocking in the second half of the year. If PXN continues to strengthen, it may lead to a passive increase in pure benzene production, thus putting pressure on pure benzene. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on PX and short on BZ [3][32][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased risk aversion, a rebound in the US dollar index, and a decline in the three major US stock indexes [1][2][16]. - The capital - market equilibrium supports the strength of the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties [3][21]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and the agricultural product market is also affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [5][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump has issued tariff letters to 14 countries, with tariffs on some countries ranging from 25% to 40% and set to take effect on August 1st. Gold prices fluctuated slightly higher, and the market's panic was limited due to the possibility of negotiations before the implementation [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices remain in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Former Fed official Kevin Warsh suggested a rate cut, stating that tariffs would not cause inflation. The EU is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the US to lock in a 10% tariff rate after August 1st. Trump's tariff pressure has led to a decline in global risk appetite, a rebound in the US dollar index, and an increase in safe - haven assets [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Wash suggested a rate cut, believing that Trump's tariffs would not cause inflation. Trump postponed the tariff deadline to August 1st, but the announced tariff rates for some countries are higher than the 10% benchmark. The market maintains a risk - averse sentiment, and the impact of tariffs on corporate earnings should be noted during the earnings reporting season [18][19]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the risk of a correction in US stocks [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves increased. The central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The capital - market equilibrium supports the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties. The impact of trade conflicts on the bond market needs further observation [20][21]. - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 1.92 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July. The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained at 66%, and the weekly export inspection report met market expectations. Domestic soybean meal inventory increased rapidly due to sufficient imports and high - capacity operation of oil mills [24][25][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The EU set a new import quota of 100,000 tons for Ukrainian sugar. Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June, a 4.91% increase year - on - year. Pakistan's sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, and the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures is limited [28][29][31]. - Investment advice: Although the production and sales data in domestic main producing areas in June were positive as expected, the market focus has shifted to processed sugar. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions increased, while that of palm oil decreased slightly. The palm oil market is relatively strong, and the soybean oil market is weak due to high - capacity operation. The strength - weakness pattern may change under certain conditions [33][34]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding the YP spread, but wait for a clear driving force and observe in the short term [34]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year this year. Steel prices fluctuated slightly lower. The short - term fundamentals are relatively strong, but some spot demand comes from the covering of previous short positions. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][35][36]. - Investment advice: Spot steel should be hedged on rallies [37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on July 7 were - 111 yuan/ton, - 49 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and - 97 yuan/ton respectively. Starch is expected to gradually reduce its operating rate to reduce inventory, and attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect [38]. - Investment advice: The inventory cycle of starch changes rapidly, and there are many uncertainties in the future [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Due to the import corn auction, the market sentiment was affected, corn futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. The market expects that the import auction will suppress spot prices [39]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the results of future import auctions. If the transaction rate drops significantly and the premium disappears, short positions on new crops can be lightly entered in advance [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 7, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The port has a structural shortage, but downstream demand is not strong. The price is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to changes in power plant loads and port inventories [40][41]. - Investment advice: The price of steam coal is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Shanxi [41]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01% - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils. Iron ore prices fluctuated, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of the anti - dumping ruling is limited [42]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term, as the upside of iron ore prices is limited [42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable. The supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price increase momentum is not strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [43][44]. - Investment advice: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. If demand weakens, the upside of coking coal prices is limited [44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - AIXU Co., Ltd.'s 3.5 billion yuan private placement was approved. The price of polysilicon has increased, but the actual problem of over - supply has not been solved. The future price increase depends on production cuts and price increases in the downstream market [45]. - Investment advice: The futures market has factored in the impact of price - limit policies. It is recommended to observe due to high policy - related risks [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The electrode market demand is weak, and cost transfer is blocked. The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan is expected to increase. The upside of industrial silicon prices is limited, and there may be opportunities for short - selling on rallies [47][48][49]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies of industrial silicon, and manage positions carefully when building positions on the left side [50]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Political conflicts in Bolivia have affected lithium - mining cooperation. Downstream demand for lithium carbonate has gradually recovered, and the supply pressure is limited. The market focus is on demand [51]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Avoid short positions for now, and wait for a better opportunity to build mid - term short positions [52]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of July 7, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends. The demand from battery factories has increased, but the terminal consumption is weak. Lead prices are expected to gradually rise, and attention can be paid to buying on dips [53][54][55]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and selling put options. Observe in terms of spreads and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [55]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. The domestic zinc inventory increased. Zinc prices declined due to macro - and fundamental factors. The market is expected to be in a surplus in July - August, and attention should be paid to the return of zinc trading to fundamentals [56][57][58]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term for single - side trading. Protect previous short positions. For spreads, observe in advance for positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Maintain the idea of internal - external positive spread arbitrage in the mid - term [59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory remained unchanged on July 7. The supply of nickel ore is slightly tight, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is in surplus, and prices are expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term [60][61]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is difficult for nickel prices to fall further deeply, but there is no upward momentum. In the mid - term, pure nickel prices are expected to follow the cost of pyrometallurgy, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has strengthened the crackdown on illegal mining, which has led to protests. LME copper inventory has increased. Copper prices are under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and inventory increases [63][65][66]. - Investment advice: Observe in both single - side and spread trading, as copper prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Three PDH plants are planned to restart in early July. The domestic and international spot prices of liquefied petroleum gas have declined, and the market is in a weak state. The short - term outlook is affected by tariff policies [67][68]. - Investment advice: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. There is a small upside potential for international prices if buying returns after the tariff uncertainty is resolved [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day in September. Oil prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the impact of the production increase on prices was limited due to market expectations and the inability of some countries to reach the production target [69]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of July 7, the inventory of asphalt increased slightly. Asphalt futures prices fluctuated between 3,500 - 3,600 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the downside of asphalt futures prices is limited, with an expected upward trend [70]. - Investment advice: Asphalt futures prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [71]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of July 7, urea enterprise inventory decreased. The futures market showed different trends in different contracts. The market focus is on export quotas and supply - side changes [72]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the realization of the new export quota expectation. The 09 contract has some support before the expectation is falsified [73]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - Bottle chip factory export quotes were slightly lowered, and the market trading was light. Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if the cuts are implemented, inventory pressure is expected to be relieved [74][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee of bottle chips by buying on dips, as the supply pressure will be relieved in the short term [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of July 7, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased significantly. The market outlook for pure benzene is still weak in the second half of the year, but there may be opportunities for long - term light - position exploration [77][78]. - Investment advice: The listing price of the 2603 pure benzene contract is considered neutral. In the mid - term, the overall view is bearish, but light - position long - entry opportunities can be considered when the spread is compressed [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On July 7, the soda ash market in the Shahe area was in a volatile adjustment. The supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak [79]. - Investment advice: In the mid - term, maintain the view of short - selling soda ash on rallies due to high inventory and cost reduction [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On July 7, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly. The factory shipment is okay, but the downstream purchasing rhythm has slowed down. The fundamentals are still weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is uncertainty in real - estate policies [80]. - Investment advice: From a single - side perspective, the risk - reward ratio of short - selling may not be high. It is recommended to consider the cross - commodity arbitrage strategy of buying glass and short - selling soda ash [81].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 供应端持续减产，光伏玻璃行业深陷亏损 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/7/4 当周）： 截至 7 月 4 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 10.5 元/平米，环比上周下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 18 元/平 米，环比上周持平。当前光伏玻璃价格创历史新低，市场竞争加 剧。 能 随着行业价格持续下行，利润大幅亏损倒逼光伏玻璃厂家开始加 速减产。基于行业呼吁，龙头企业于七月初带头行动。上周有五 条光伏玻璃产线冷修，一个窑炉堵口。预计本周行业减产将持续， 计划减产窑炉 1-2 座，不排除有计划外减产的情况。 源 化 上周需求端订单表现一般，周初厂家发货节奏较缓，新月需求并 不乐观。短期需求端难以有较快恢复，供大于需局面将延续。 工 目前光伏玻璃行业库存持续上行，虽然行业减产仍在继续，但由 于需求端短期难以有较快恢复，供大于需局面依然存在，本周库 存预计将继续上行。 上周行业毛利润继续下滑，亏损程度进一步加深。近期行业累库 压力逐步加剧，部分企业低价加速抢单出货，光伏玻璃利润水平 持续下滑。 ★ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market's mainstream expectation is that the pure benzene market will marginally improve, but remain weak in the second half of the year. With PX being strong, there is still room for BZ valuation to decline, and the overall outlook is bearish. However, from a long - term allocation perspective, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, there may be opportunities for light - position trial long trades [2] - The supply reduction of pure benzene is difficult, and the driving force for its valuation repair usually comes from the demand side. The weighted demand growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be around 5 - 5.5%. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the second half of the year is slightly better than that in the first half, but it will still be in a balanced to slightly inventory - building state if there are no unexpected factors in terminal demand [19][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Futures Contract Points Interpretation - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange starting from 09:00 on July 8, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, BZ2606. The daily price limit is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and 14% of the listing benchmark price on the first trading day. The trading margin is 8% of the contract value. The trading fee is 0.01% of the transaction amount, and 0.005% for hedging transactions [11] - The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons per lot, much larger than that of styrene futures. The ratio for hedging with styrene can be set at 1:6 or 1:7.5. The last trading day and the last delivery day are the same as those of styrene contracts. The main contracts of pure benzene are expected to change monthly continuously, different from PX's 1/5/9 main contracts, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of far - month contracts [12] 2. Key Points of Pure Benzene Delivery Rules - The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures announced by DCE is consistent with the current national standard (GB/T 3405 - 2025), and coal - based hydrogenated benzene can also participate in delivery. The crystallization point requirement is ≥5.45°C [16] - The delivery area has been expanded from East China to South China, North China, and Northeast China. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are the benchmark delivery areas, Shandong has a discount of 50 yuan per ton, and South China has no premium or discount [17] - Pure benzene standard warehouse receipts are cancelled monthly to align with the characteristics of the spot market [18] 3. Strategy Suggestions for the First Listing Day of Pure Benzene - **Absolute Price Dimension**: Based on the Singapore Exchange's far - month contracts, the price of pure benzene in East China in March next year is estimated to be around 5900 yuan per ton. Calculated by the current spot price in East China plus the far - month paper - cargo premium structure, the far - month price may be around 6000 - 6100 yuan per ton, but there may be a discount between the futures price and the East China price. In the long - term, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, light - position trial long trades can be considered [2][22] - **Internal - External Arbitrage**: Considering the different delivery systems of the Singapore Exchange (cash settlement) and DCE (physical delivery), opportunities for long Singapore Exchange pure benzene and short DCE pure benzene can be explored [2][23] - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage in the Industrial Chain**: The median spread corresponding to the break - even point of non - integrated styrene plants is 1300 yuan per ton. Without a squeeze, the 2603 EB - BZ spread may range from 1100 to 1500 yuan per ton [3][23]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国住建部称将更大力度推动房地产市场止 跌回稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-07 宏观策略（黄金） 美国财长贝森特：贸易谈判的最后阶段出现僵局 周五金价震荡微跌，美国独立日休市海外市场交易较为清淡， 市场聚焦关税暂缓期到期后美国对等关税落地情况，9 日前仍有 谈判在推进，主要是欧盟和日本还未与美国达成协议。 宏观策略（股指期货） 住建部：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 综 合 近期股市情绪持续升温，新题材涌现，使得市场顶住高估压力 持续上涨。这种单边堰塞湖的状态，后续需要基本面回升来夯 实行情。此外海外关税扰动仍不可忽视 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 展望下周，预计资金面仍然偏松，债市做多动能继续积累，但 长端品种突破尚需等待。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） Mysteel 数据：全国主要油厂大豆压榨预估调查统计 45Z 税收抵免通过，关注 7 月 8 日听证会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 6 月下旬重点钢企钢材库存量 1545 万吨 反内卷政策预期带动钢价偏强，基本面仍有支撑，五大品种库 存并未进一步累积。但随着 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish; Polysilicon: Sideways [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large Xinjiang factories will have a significant impact on the industrial silicon fundamentals. The polysilicon market is facing issues such as high inventory and difficulty in spot transactions, and its price increase depends on production cuts and downstream price trends. The prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all under pressure, and their price rebounds may rely on administrative measures [11][12][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 7980 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 450 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 2195 yuan/ton to 35510 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N-type re-feeding material increased by 300 yuan/ton to 34700 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polysilicon Policy Game, Pay Attention to Shorting Opportunities on Industrial Silicon Rebounds - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week. Yunnan and Sichuan increased their furnace openings, while Xinjiang reduced production. The weekly output was 72,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.92%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, the industrial silicon may see a monthly inventory reduction of 60,000 tons; if it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may see a monthly inventory increase of 30,000 tons [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some factories carried out maintenance or reduced production, and some resumed work. The overall enterprise operating rate was 70.44%, the weekly output was 46,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21%, and the inventory was 49,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.39%. It is expected that the price will mainly operate stably [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly this week. The N-type re-feeding material price increased to 36 yuan/kg on July 2. However, the downstream silicon wafers are in a cash loss state, and the spot is difficult to trade. In July, the polysilicon production schedule will increase to 107,000 tons, leading to a monthly surplus. As of July 3, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 272,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers continued to decline this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.22GW as of July 3, a week-on-week decrease of 0.89GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 52GW, and the price has a sign of stopping falling [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 11.53GW as of June 30, a week-on-week decrease of 4.8GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 50GW, but the production reduction may be insufficient, and the inventory will still accumulate. The price may continue to decline [13] - **Components**: The price of components continued to decline this week. The initial production schedule of component factories in July is about 45GW, and the price is difficult to be supported fundamentally. The price rebound may rely on administrative measures [14] 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on industrial silicon rebounds, and pay attention to position management when building positions on the left side [15] - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. Consider taking profit on the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread at an appropriate time [15] 4. Hot News Summary - In May 2025, the utilization rate of national photovoltaic power generation was 94.2%, and that of wind power was 93.2% [16] - The first - phase 25GW monocrystalline silicon wafer project of Trina Solar's Huai'an base was completed and put into operation, and the second - phase project is under construction. The total planned investment of the project is 30 billion yuan [16] - On July 3, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase of 4.916 billion yuan and introduced 11 strategic investors [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of gold prices is oscillating and has not yet broken out of the range, waiting for more momentum [5] - Multiple factors are intertwined. Tariff policies boost gold's safe - haven property, but the intensity and uncertainty are lower than in April, resulting in limited gold price increases. The relatively good performance of US economic data does not bring additional positive factors to gold. The implementation of the US tax - cut bill will boost short - term economic and risk appetite but increase the long - term debt burden of the US government, and the logic of gold hedging against the US dollar credit remains [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - London gold rose 1.9% to $3,337 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the inflation expectation was 2.33%, the real interest rate rose to 2%, the US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly, and the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated narrowly [2] 3.2 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes | Index Name | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change Amount | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Basis (Spot - Futures) | Yuan/g | - 5.49 | - 3.32 | - 2.17 | 65.4% | | Domestic - Foreign Futures Price Difference (Domestic - Foreign) | Yuan/g | - 12.08 | 8.99 | - 21.07 | - 234.4% | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kg | 21,456 | 18,237 | 3,219.00 | 17.7% | | COMEX Gold Inventory | Ounce | 36,785,583 | 37,048,335 | - 262,752 | - 0.71% | | SPDR ETF Holdings | Tons | 947.66 | 954.82 | - 7.16 | - 0.75% | | CFTC Gold Speculative Net Long Positions | Lots | 130,484 | 136,626 | - 6,142 | - 4.5% | | US Treasury Yield | % | 4.35 | 4.29 | 0.06 | 1.4% | | US Dollar Index | | 96.99 | 97.26 | - 0.27 | - 0.28% | | SOFR | % | 4.40 | 4.36 | 0.04 | 0.9% | | US 10 - Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | % | 2.3386 | 2.3043 | 0.0343 | 1.49% | | S&P 500 Index | | 6,279 | 6,173 | 106 | 1.7% | | VIX Volatility Index | % | 17.5 | 16.3 | 1.2 | 7.1% | | Gold Cross - Market Arbitrage Trading | | 7.1 | 7.3 | - 0.2 | - 2.7% | | US 10 - Year Real Interest Rate | % | 2.01 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 1.7% | [11] 3.3 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.3.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.4%. Oil prices rose 2.5%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.33% [17] - The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 17.6 [19] - The real interest rate slightly rose to 2.007%, and the gold price rose 1.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index slightly fell [21] 3.3.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.72%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.4% [22] - US and German bonds rebounded, and the US - Germany yield spread was 1.74%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.55%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.44% [27] - The euro rose 0.52%, the pound fell 0.48%, the yen rose 0.12%, and the Swiss franc rose 0.63%. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated [29][31] 3.4 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The release of gold speculative net long positions was postponed to July 8. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings fell to 947 tons [34] - The RMB slightly appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 90.2 [36] 3.5 Weekly Economic Calendar | Date | Important Data & Events | | --- | --- | | Monday | China's foreign exchange reserves in June; Eurozone retail sales in June | | Tuesday | Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting decision; US NFIB small - business confidence index in June; New York Fed one - year inflation expectation | | Wednesday | China's CPI in June; End of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period | | Thursday | Minutes of the Fed's June interest rate meeting | | Friday | US 30 - year Treasury auction | [37]