Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - US CPI in September was lower than market expectations, but the stagflation risk remains unresolved. The cooling of the US real - estate market has curbed inflation, but price increases in non - rent services and core commodities are still high. Retailer inventory is tight, and an aggressive trade policy may exacerbate inflation risks [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is oscillating around the 4% mark. The outcome of the US Supreme Court's tariff case and the resolution of the US government "shutdown" affect the US Treasury market. Caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield is below 4% [2] - The price index of edible agricultural products has rebounded. There are changes in prices of various commodities such as oil, metals, and building materials. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from October 1 - 21, 2025, decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report shows various charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and export volume, including copper prices, steel production, and commodity price indices [8][23][29] US and European Important High - frequency Indicators - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE, and financial conditions indexes, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [96][98][105] High - frequency Data Seasonal Trends - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including data on steel production, production material price indices, and commodity price indices [107][113][116] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [160][164][167]

政策催化叠加产业链景气持续验证，科技主线有望回归。 相关研究报告 《策略点评报告》20250822 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 策略周报 科技主线有望回归 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 金价短期波动不改中长期叙 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation positions of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant weights in non-bank financials (11.7%), communication (8.6%), and basic chemicals (8.3) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was 0.2%, with the best-performing sectors being oil and petrochemicals (4.9%), communication (3.8%), and home appliances (2.0%) [3][10] - The report indicates a cumulative return of 27.4% for the industry rotation composite strategy year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 4.4% [3] Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors for the week included oil and petrochemicals (4.9%), communication (3.8%), and home appliances (2.0%), while the worst performers were defense and military (-3.6%), electric equipment and new energy (-2.4%), and non-ferrous metals (-2.4%) [10][11] - The average monthly return over the past month was 0.7%, indicating a slight upward trend in industry performance [10] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying sectors with high valuation risks. Currently, sectors such as retail, media, computing, electronics, and oil and petrochemicals are flagged for high valuation [12][13][14] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy are non-bank financials, machinery, and communication [15][16] - The report outlines various strategies, with the highest excess return from the traditional multi-factor scoring strategy (18.4%) and the lowest from the funds flow strategy (-4.2%) [3] Composite Strategy Allocation and Performance Review - The composite strategy has increased allocations in financials, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and midstream cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to consumer non-cyclical sectors [3] - The report details the current weights of various strategies, with the traditional multi-factor scoring strategy holding the highest weight at 24.1% [3] Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The macro style rotation strategy identifies the top six industries favored by current macro indicators, which include banking, oil and petrochemicals, transportation, electric utilities, construction, and home appliances [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with a net profit of 49.034 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.20% [3][8] - The company continues to solidify its leading position in the industry, with a market share of 36.8% in global power battery installations [8] - The report anticipates high growth potential for the company's future earnings due to orderly overseas capacity deployment and robust demand in the industry [3][8] Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 283.072 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, a 9.28% increase year-on-year [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 15.24, 18.94, and 21.89 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.5, 19.7, and 17.0 [5][7] - The company's EBITDA is expected to grow significantly, reaching 98.194 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.1% [7][11] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the Shenzhen Composite Index, with a relative performance of 15.3% year-to-date [2] - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 1,701.31 billion RMB [2] Shareholder Information - Major shareholder includes Xiamen Ruiting Investment Co., Ltd., holding 22.46% of shares [2]

Economic Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in economic strength, technological capability, national defense, and international influence by 2035, with a target of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries[2] - The focus is on solidifying the foundation and making comprehensive efforts in advanced manufacturing and new productive forces as key areas for future economic development[3] Consumption and Investment Strategies - The meeting emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding effective investment, with a strategic focus on building a strong domestic market[2] - It highlights the need to combine "benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption," suggesting that improving income distribution and ensuring high-quality employment are crucial for enhancing consumer spending[2] - Investment strategies should focus on both physical assets and human capital, with an emphasis on innovation-driven investments to stimulate new consumer demand[2] Policy Implementation and Economic Stability - The meeting stresses the commitment to achieving annual economic and social development goals, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations[2] - Macro policies are expected to continue to exert force, with a recent announcement of 500 billion yuan allocated from local government debt limits to support local economies[2] - The effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market is anticipated to yield positive results[2] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include overseas recession and uncertainties in geopolitical relations, which could impact economic stability[2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has set a directional tone for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on structural optimization and high-quality development, indicating that the A-share market is expected to transition from policy support to a new starting point for structural upgrades [1][2] - The meeting's communiqué reiterates the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," aiming for qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, with a focus on innovation-driven development and the construction of a domestic circulation system [2][4] - Key sectors identified for future policy resource allocation include advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, new energy, new materials, military industry, aerospace, and digital infrastructure, which are expected to benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of building a strong domestic market and suggests that consumption and service industry upgrades will become another significant policy focus, driven by improving livelihoods, promoting employment, and expanding the middle-income group [2][4] - The emphasis on green transformation and energy revolution indicates that sectors related to green electricity, energy storage, energy conservation, and carbon management may regain policy attention [2][4] - The report suggests that the core significance of the Fourth Plenary Session for the A-share market lies in clarifying medium- to long-term directions and reinforcing structural certainty, with macro policies expected to support an upward shift in the A-share market's operating center [2][4] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the subsequent rollout of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will reshape the investment themes and valuation systems in the capital market, with new productive forces represented by technological self-reliance, green transformation, and domestic demand upgrades becoming the main policy threads for the next five years [2][4] - It is suggested that long-term funds, particularly public funds, insurance capital, and state-owned funds, will increasingly concentrate on industries with strategic support value [2][4] - The report recommends maintaining a medium to high position in the portfolio, focusing on advanced manufacturing, technology hardware, green energy chains, and digital economy sectors in the short term, while also allocating to high-dividend, low-valuation sectors like finance, electricity, and public utilities to balance volatility and returns [2][4]

Economic Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in economic strength, technological capability, national defense, and international influence by 2035, with a target of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries[3] - The focus is on solidifying the foundation and making comprehensive efforts in advanced manufacturing and new productive forces as key areas for future economic development[2] Consumption and Investment Strategies - The meeting emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding effective investment, with a strategic focus on building a strong domestic market[2] - It highlights the need to combine "investment in goods and investment in people," suggesting that effective investment in innovation can drive new consumer demand[2] - The government plans to enhance residents' income levels as a fundamental basis for increasing consumer spending, indicating that income growth will be a key driver of consumption during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[2] Policy Implementation and Economic Stability - The meeting stresses the need to achieve annual economic and social development goals, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations[2] - Macro policies are expected to continue to exert force, with a recent announcement of 500 billion yuan allocated to local governments from debt limits, indicating ongoing fiscal support[2] - The "steady real estate" policy is anticipated to yield positive effects, contributing to overall economic stability[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include overseas recession and uncertainties in geopolitical relations, which could impact economic performance[2]

Core Insights - The overall activity level in the A-share merger and acquisition (M&A) market has decreased compared to the previous period, but it still exhibits characteristics of high frequency, diverse participants, and broad sectors [1][3] - A total of 51 M&A events were disclosed during the period, with a cumulative transaction amount of 76.816 billion RMB, reflecting a 15.00% decrease in the number of major M&A events and an 87.24% decrease in transaction value compared to the previous period [3][4] - Key sectors with high M&A activity include real estate management and development, machinery, electronic equipment, instruments and components, electrical equipment, automotive parts, and communication equipment [1][3] - Private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are actively engaging in horizontal integration and strategic cooperation, indicating diverse motivations for M&A [1][3] - The decline in the number and value of M&A activities is expected to be supported by regulatory policy optimization, economic recovery, policy encouragement, and capital market reforms, which may further release space for industrial integration and value reshaping [1][3] M&A Market Overview - The A-share M&A market has entered a new phase characterized by "efficiency improvement + structural optimization," driven by both policy and proactive corporate adjustments [3][4] - 18 listed companies announced or planned M&A activities during the period, with an average bi-weekly stock price change of 1.01%, while 23 companies that had announced M&A plans made significant progress, with an average bi-weekly stock price change of -7.53% [3][4] Listed Companies' M&A Plans - Several companies have announced M&A plans, including: - Weigao Blood Purification (603014.SH) plans to acquire 100% equity of Weigao Purification through a private placement [4] - Changhong High-Tech (605008.SH) intends to acquire 100% equity of Guangxi Changhong through a private placement [4] - Hanbang High-Tech (300449.SZ) aims to acquire 51% equity of Yilu Micro through a private placement [4] - The progress of these M&A plans varies, with some companies in the planning stage while others have reached significant milestones [4][6] Companies Achieving Significant Progress Post-Announcement - Companies that have made notable progress after announcing M&A plans include: - Huamao Technology (603306.SH) has received shareholder approval for the acquisition of multiple equity stakes [6][7] - Tongye Technology (300960.SZ) has reached a transfer intention for the acquisition of 100% equity of Siling Technology [6][7] - Yunnan Urban Investment (600239.SH) has received shareholder approval for the sale of multiple company equities [6][7] Market Trends and Stock Performance - The average bi-weekly stock price changes for companies involved in M&A activities show mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines while others see gains [5][8] - The overall trend indicates a cautious market sentiment towards M&A activities, with fluctuations in stock performance reflecting investor reactions to M&A announcements and progress [5][8]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for October, including companies such as China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750.SZ) [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience, leading to a record high in the current account surplus for the first half of the year, while the surplus as a percentage of GDP remains within internationally recognized reasonable limits [2][4] - The solid-state battery technology is identified as the next generation of power batteries for electric vehicles, with significant advantages in safety and energy density, supported by government policies [6][7] - The solid-state battery equipment market is projected to grow rapidly, with an estimated global market size of 4 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to reach 107.94 billion yuan by 2030 [7] - Shengquan Group is recognized as a leading synthetic resin enterprise in China, expanding into biomass chemicals and electronic chemicals, with a robust growth trajectory driven by increasing demand in downstream sectors [10][11] - The demand for electronic resins is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI servers and the ongoing domestic substitution of electronic resins [10][11] - The report notes that the global market for silicon-based anode materials is projected to reach 30 billion yuan by 2025, driven by the increasing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage [12] - Shengquan Group's proprietary biomass refining technology is highlighted for its ability to achieve high-value utilization of biomass, contributing to a complete industrial chain [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in achieving the long-term goal of building a modern socialist country by 2035, focusing on economic stability and structural transformation [3][4][9] - The report anticipates that the "15th Five-Year Plan" will set an implicit GDP growth target of around 4.5%-5%, reflecting a commitment to maintaining economic growth despite challenges [10][12] - The report highlights the need for a balanced economic structure, emphasizing the role of consumption in driving growth and the importance of stabilizing prices to achieve the 2035 goals [11][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key areas of focus during the "15th Five-Year Plan," including the development of new productive forces, regional coordination, and deepening reform and opening-up [4][6] - It discusses the significance of enhancing service consumption as a new engine for economic growth, with a particular emphasis on improving the quality of services and expanding supply [52][55] - The report indicates that employment stability and income growth will be prioritized, with strategies aimed at reducing income disparities and supporting vulnerable groups [62][64]