Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company demonstrates confidence through its second phase of restricted stock incentive plan, indicating strong commitment [4][9] - The AI and storage sectors continue to show favorable market conditions, supporting the company's growth prospects [4][9] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 230.02 billion, RMB 321.10 billion, and RMB 419.23 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - Projected net profits for the same years are RMB 33.41 billion, RMB 58.16 billion, and RMB 76.43 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 5.01, RMB 8.72, and RMB 11.46 [6] - The PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 38.4, 22.0, and 16.8 respectively [6] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from RMB 13,526 million in 2023 to RMB 41,923 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30.6% [8] - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,398 million in 2023 to RMB 7,643 million in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [8] Shareholder Incentives - The incentive plan involves granting 15.16 million shares, representing 2.27% of the total share capital, with a grant price of RMB 114.72 per share [9] - The plan aims to align the interests of management and key personnel with the company's long-term performance [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its high-end PCB production capacity through new factories and technological upgrades, which will support future demand [9] - The focus on AI computing upgrades and structural growth in the storage market is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [9]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current allocation of the Bank of China multi-strategy industry configuration system is as follows: Communication (9.6%), Banking (9.5%), Transportation (9.1%), Non-Bank Financials (8.0%), Food and Beverage (7.7%), Power Equipment and New Energy (7.2%), Steel (6.7%), Machinery (6.2%), Basic Chemicals (4.7%), Oil and Petrochemicals (4.7%), Home Appliances (4.4%), Comprehensive (3.5%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (3.5%), Comprehensive Finance (3.5%), Nonferrous Metals (3.5%), Building Materials (3.4%), Electronics (2.4%), Power and Utilities (1.2%), and Construction (1.2%) [1] Market Performance Review - The average weekly return of the CITIC primary industries is 0.0%, with a one-month average return of -4.1%. The top three performing industries this week are Communication (6.4%), Defense and Military (4.6%), and Non-Bank Financials (3.3%). The worst-performing industries are Coal (-3.6%), Oil and Petrochemicals (-2.7%), and Steel (-2.4%) [3][10] - The composite industry rotation strategy achieved a cumulative return of 0.3% this week, with an excess return of 5.2% year-to-date compared to the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark [3][10] Industry Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, excluding extreme values. Industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile are flagged for high valuation risk. Currently, the industries under warning include Computer, Retail, Media, Nonferrous Metals, Oil and Petrochemicals, and Defense and Military [12][13] Single Strategy Performance - The top three industries based on the S1 high prosperity industry rotation strategy are Machinery, Communication, and Power Equipment and New Energy [15][16] - The S2 implied sentiment momentum strategy ranks the top three industries as Communication, Machinery, and Electronics [20] - The S3 macro style rotation strategy identifies the top six industries as Banking, Home Appliances, Power and Utilities, Oil and Petrochemicals, Transportation, and Construction [23] Strategy Adjustments - The composite strategy has increased positions in TMT, midstream cyclical, and midstream non-cyclical sectors while reducing positions in consumer, financial, and upstream cyclical sectors [3][10]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, new social financing (社融) reached 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan by 23.3%[2] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, consistent with the previous month and close to the expected 8.45%[2] - New RMB loans in November amounted to 405.3 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 116.3 billion yuan compared to the same month last year[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government bonds (1.20 trillion yuan) and corporate bonds (416.9 billion yuan)[2] - Direct financing increased by 170.2 billion yuan year-on-year, while off-balance-sheet financing rose by 132.8 billion yuan[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.16 percentage points, while RMB loans decreased by 0.23 percentage points[2] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth was 8.0% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth was 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points[2] - New deposits in November totaled 1.41 trillion yuan, with a significant decline of 760 billion yuan compared to the same month last year[2] - The decline in new deposits was mainly due to a drop in both resident deposits (120 billion yuan) and corporate deposits (94.7 billion yuan) year-on-year[2] Group 4: Loan Performance - New loans in November were 390 billion yuan, with short-term loans and bills at 218.4 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 180 billion yuan[2] - The overall performance of new loans was weak, particularly in the residential sector, which saw a decrease of 206.3 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - Corporate loans were relatively strong, with an increase of 610 billion yuan compared to the previous year[2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative into 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity[2] - Key areas to monitor include year-end corporate inventory adjustments, early-year demand performance, and changes in real estate sales[2] - Risks include potential global inflation increases, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and complex international situations[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [14]. Core Insights - The recent bidding results for duty-free shops at Shanghai Airport show that China Duty Free Group and Dufry have won the bids, which is expected to enhance competition and operational vitality in the duty-free sector. The rental agreement has been optimized to a base fee plus a low commission model, which is anticipated to encourage duty-free operators to expand sales in port channels and reduce costs, benefiting both operators and the airport [1][3]. - The upcoming closure of Hainan and the continuous policy support across various channels, along with the optimized rental agreements at key ports, present multiple advantages for the duty-free industry. The report suggests focusing on the leading duty-free operator, China Duty Free Group, and notes that Wangfujing, as a state-owned enterprise in Beijing, is also expected to participate in the bidding and expand its port channel business [3]. Summary by Sections Bidding Results - Shanghai Airport announced the candidates for the duty-free shop bids, with Dufry winning the bid for the T1 and S1 satellite hall at Pudong Airport, and China Duty Free Group winning the T2 and S2 satellite hall and the T1 international section at Hongqiao Airport. The monthly fixed fees for the winning bids are 3,141 RMB/m²/month for Dufry, 3,090 RMB/m²/month for China Duty Free Group at Pudong T2, and 2,827 RMB/m²/month for China Duty Free Group at Hongqiao T1, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 24% [5][8]. Competitive Landscape - The introduction of foreign operators is expected to invigorate the duty-free market at ports, breaking the previous exclusive operating model. Dufry, backed by the world's largest travel retailer, is anticipated to enhance competition and operational efficiency in the duty-free sector [5][8]. Financial Implications - The new contracts feature a fixed fee plus a floating commission model, which is expected to lower the commission rates compared to previous agreements. The annual base fees remain stable, with Pudong T1 at 300 million RMB, Pudong T2 at 330 million RMB, and Hongqiao T1 at 70 million RMB. This new structure is likely to encourage duty-free operators to increase sales volume, effectively diluting fixed costs and promoting brand expansion [5][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of financial services in supporting the national strategy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the role of the financial sector as a crucial hub for resource allocation and policy transmission [1][3]. - The central economic work conference outlines a path for capital market reform and high-quality industry development by 2026, suggesting a long-term upward adjustment in the valuation of the securities industry [3][27]. - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: the expansion of advantages for leading comprehensive brokerages and the differentiated development of specialized small and medium-sized brokerages [3]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for financial institutions to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation, which are critical for long-term national development [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, anticipating upward valuation potential due to the rising prosperity of the securities industry and the importance of financial functions highlighted in the central economic work conference [3][27]. Market Data - From December 8 to December 12, the CSI All Share Index increased by 0.19%, while the non-banking industry index rose by 0.81%. The brokerage industry specifically saw a 0.31% increase during this period [10][11]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 2,394.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.06% increase week-on-week [14]. Company Announcements - Several companies, including Shenhua Investment and Guosen Securities, announced cash dividend plans for their shareholders, indicating ongoing profitability and shareholder returns [28][29].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,531, with a year-to-date increase of 27.3%[2] - The MSCI China index showed a year-to-date increase of 28.6%, closing at 83[2] - The KOSPI index experienced a significant year-to-date increase of 71.3%, closing at 4,111[2] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil prices decreased by 1.0% to $62 per barrel, with a year-to-date decline of 13.6%[3] - Gold prices remained stable at $4,281 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 63.1%[3] - Copper prices increased by 0.6% to $11,557 per ton, with a year-to-date rise of 31.8%[3] Economic Indicators - China's retail sales year-on-year growth was reported at 2.9%, matching consensus expectations[4] - Industrial production in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, slightly below the consensus of 5.0%[4] - The surveyed jobless rate in China remained stable at 5.1%[4] Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy with necessary fiscal deficits and a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth[6] - A specific action plan to improve household income was introduced to boost consumption from both long-term and demand perspectives[7] - The conference highlighted the need to stabilize investment growth and allocate more investment financing[7]

Economic Structure - The main contributors to China's GDP in 2024 are consumption (56.55%), investment (40.61%), and net exports (2.84%) [10] - The contribution rates to GDP growth are 44.47% from consumption, 25.22% from investment, and 30.31% from net exports [11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector's GDP share peaked above 8% between 2018 and 2020, but has since declined to 6.27% in 2024 [25][29] - The real estate industry's nominal GDP growth has been consistently lower than the overall economic growth since 2019, indicating a significant shift [27] Future Growth Drivers - Future economic growth is expected to be supported by technology-driven sectors such as information technology and leasing services, as well as industries benefiting from productivity improvements like wholesale retail and manufacturing [2] - Key areas for future growth include the modernization of the industrial system, driven by government policies and technological advancements [1] Policy Implications - Long-term national policies, such as the five-year plan, are crucial for ensuring sustainable economic development and balancing sectoral growth [2] - The macroeconomic policy environment is expected to maintain a positive fiscal stance and moderately loose monetary policy, with potential innovations in monetary tools [2] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in developed economies, and increasing international geopolitical complexities [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The current real estate market remains sluggish, with ongoing declines in housing prices and increasing market concerns. However, there is optimism for policy optimization in the future, potentially marking the beginning of a new real estate cycle in 2026 [8] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [8] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [8] 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models, such as China Resources and Swire Properties [8] Summary by Sections 1. New and Second-hand Housing Market Tracking - New housing transaction area decreased by 11.4% month-on-month and 45.7% year-on-year, with a total of 208.9 million square meters sold in 40 cities [7][19] - Second-hand housing transaction area also saw a decline of 5.1% month-on-month and 45.9% year-on-year, totaling 157.5 million square meters in 18 cities [7][50] - New housing inventory area decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 10.3% year-on-year, with a total inventory of 11,369 million square meters [7][43] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 2,377.1 million square meters, up 14.8% month-on-month but down 26.7% year-on-year, with a total transaction value of 865.7 billion yuan [7][64] - The average land price was 3,641.9 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 58.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [7][64] - The land premium rate was 3.8%, up 2.5 percentage points month-on-month but down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [7][64] 3. Policy Overview - Recent government policies emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, with various local governments introducing housing purchase subsidy policies to support homebuyers [3] - Notable policies include subsidies for newlywed families and families with multiple children in cities like Nanning and Changzhou [3] 4. Company Performance and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 142.4 billion yuan, down 26.9% month-on-month and 31.0% year-on-year [7][54] - The total repayment amount was 105.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 55.7% month-on-month and 77.5% year-on-year [7][54]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 社服视角学习中央经济工 作会议精神的体会 内需主导提振消费，民生为大谋办实事 中央经济工作会议（以下简称会议）于 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举 行，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要 讲话。习总书记重要讲话主要总结了 2025 年我国经济工作，分析了当前经济 形势，部署了 2026 年经济工作。会议提出的五个"必须"是做好新形势下经 济工作新的认识和体会。结合会议确定的 2026 年"八大"经济工作重点任务， 从社会服务行业的视角，我们预计内需主导是提振消费的重要支撑动力，我 们维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 在学习习总书记重要讲话和会议精神后，我们对 2026 年及"十五五"期 间以社会服务为主的消费恢复及发展方向更为明确，对行业及企业的进 一步深耕与供给创新更有信心。我们建议关注三条主线：一是会议明确 的稳岗就业标的科锐国际、北京人力、上海外服；二是跨境消费需求提 振后有望进一步释放业绩增量的同程旅行、岭南控股、众信旅游、长白 山、黄山旅游；三是新消费场景与 ...

Economic Strategy - The strategic position of "expanding domestic demand" has been further elevated, emphasizing its role in addressing "old problems and new challenges" in the economy[1] - The meeting highlighted the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, with a focus on enhancing policy foresight, targeting, and coordination[1] - "Expanding domestic demand" is seen as a crucial measure to counter external demand uncertainties and stimulate domestic supply, leading to improved corporate profits and household income[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit target for 2025 is set at 4.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from 2024, with an estimated actual deficit rate of 5.3% when including special government bonds[4] - The meeting called for continued implementation of a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels[4] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on using various tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery[4] Investment and Consumption - The meeting proposed the formulation of a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income, which is fundamental to boosting consumer spending[4] - Investment strategies will focus on stabilizing and revitalizing investment through both project and local fiscal funding[4] - The emphasis on "doing better with incremental policies and revitalizing existing resources" aims to align new policies with the existing economic foundation[12]