Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on investment opportunities in various sectors, particularly in the context of market fluctuations and sector performance [1][2][3] Stock Recommendations - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for December, including Poly Real Estate Group (0119.HK), Jitu Express (1519.HK), and Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) among others [1] Market Index Performance - The report provides closing prices and percentage changes for major market indices, indicating a downward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3873.32 (-0.70%) and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13147.39 (-1.27%) [1] Industry Performance - The report details the performance of various industries, with banking showing a slight increase of 0.17%, while sectors like real estate and food & beverage experienced declines of -3.06% and -0.42% respectively [2] Silver Market Insights - The report discusses the recent surge in silver prices, which have increased over 100% this year, with a notable breakout above $60 per ounce, driven by strong industrial demand and supply shortages [6][7] - It emphasizes the shift in silver's investment narrative, moving away from being viewed merely as a gold substitute to a standalone asset with unique value propositions [6][7] Fund Management Regulations - The report outlines new performance evaluation guidelines for fund management companies, emphasizing long-term performance metrics and aligning compensation with investor interests, which is expected to enhance the industry's overall health [11][12][13] - It suggests that these changes will lead to a more stable influx of long-term capital into the market, benefiting both the fund management sector and the broader capital market [14][15] Agricultural Sector Insights - The report highlights Longping High-Tech (隆平高科) as a leading player in the seed industry, showcasing its robust product portfolio and resilience in performance despite industry challenges [22][24] - It notes the company's strategic advantages in transgenic crops and its strong market position, projecting continued growth in revenue and profitability over the coming years [25][26]

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 除了美国就业市场降温外，发达经济体的财政扩张倾向，可能倒逼美联储推 进降息，事实上形成一种另类的"结构性双松"。 美联储 12 月议息会议中表现出来的分歧比预期中小。从议息决议来看， 只有施密德和古尔斯比两位票委反对降息；从利率预测点阵图看，认同 本次降息或者更多降息的 FOMC 官员达到 13 位，而 9 月会议时支持今年 降息到这一水平的只有 10 位。此外，美联储还宣布了对中短期美国国债 （剩余期限不超过 3 年）的购债计划。当然，这种表面分歧的弥合可能 是妥协的结果，而促成这种妥协的压力可能来自两方面：美国就业市场 降温和发达经济体整体的财政扩张倾向。 美国就业市场降温的迹象。如此前报告提到，美国 11 月 ADP 就业数据 印证美国就业市场降温，可以推测官方的私营非农就业数据增长也应在 放缓中，10 月或 11 月不排除有减少情况（《债市测试"平衡边界"》 20251207）。 发达经济体整体的财政扩张倾向。近期美债收益率面临的上行压力主要 来自日债和欧债。日本内阁近期批准 21.3 万亿日元补充预算，占 GDP 的 比重接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the overall tone was less hawkish than market expectations. This meeting is conducive to pushing down short - term interest rates and the US dollar index, and driving up risk assets and commodities. The long - term trend of the interest rate curve may face upward pressure due to the impact of technological revolution on the neutral interest rate [2][7] - The report expects two interest rate cuts next year, mainly because the dovish tone of this meeting shows the weakening of the hawkish camp, and the new candidates after the personnel change of the Fed next year tend to be dovish [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Meeting Results - **Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3 - 3/4 percent. Three people voted against the decision, with Miran asking for a 50 - basis - point rate cut and Goolsbee and Schmid believing there should be no rate cut [2][5][12] - **Policy Outlook**: The meeting statement re - introduced the expression "in considering the extent and timing of...", indicating that future decisions will remain flexible, and consecutive rate cuts are no longer the baseline scenario [3] - **Economic Situation Assessment**: The statement removed the expression "the unemployment rate remained low", indicating that the Fed is worried about the current unemployment rate [3] - **Balance Sheet Policy**: In December, the technical expansion of the balance sheet (RMP) was launched, with an initial monthly purchase of $40 billion in T - Bills (including coupon - bearing Treasury bonds within 3 years if necessary), and the high - level purchase will be maintained until the tax season in April. The Fed also removed the upper limit on the use of the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) [3] - **Dot Plot**: It shows that the interest rate path is the same as in September. The GDP forecast for 2026 was significantly raised, but it did not drive down the unemployment rate forecast. The dot plot still maintains the interest rate cut path, with one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027 [3][6] 3.2 Press Conference Highlights - **Interest Rate Stance**: Powell said that interest rate hikes are not under consideration [4] - **Employment Situation**: Powell said that the risk in the employment market has increased. From June to September, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3%. After considering the QCEW correction, the actual monthly new employment was - 20,000 people [4] - **Inflation Viewpoint**: Powell continues to hold the view that inflation is temporary. Current service inflation is falling, but it is offset by the rising commodity inflation driven by tariffs. He expects that if there are no new tariffs, commodity inflation should peak in the first quarter of next year and start to decline in the second half of next year [11] 3.3 Market Impact - After the meeting, the 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bond yields fell by 8, 6, and 4 basis points respectively. The Bloomberg US dollar index fell 0.44%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rose 0.67% and 0.33% respectively, and gold rebounded [7] 3.4 Economic Forecast Changes | Indicator | 12 - Month Forecast | 9 - Month Forecast | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Real GDP | 2025: 1.7%; 2026: 2.3%; 2027: 2.0%; 2028: 1.9%; Long - term: 1.8% | 2025: 1.6%; 2026: 1.8%; 2027: 1.9%; 2028: 1.8%; Long - term: 1.8% | 2025: +0.1; 2026: +0.5; 2027: +0.1; 2028: +0.1 | | Unemployment Rate | 2025: 4.5%; 2026: 4.4%; 2027: 4.2%; 2028: 4.2%; Long - term: 4.2% | 2025: 4.5%; 2026: 4.4%; 2027: 4.3%; 2028: 4.2%; Long - term: 4.2% | 2027: (0.1) | | PCE Inflation | 2025: 2.9%; 2026: 2.4%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0%; Long - term: 2.0% | 2025: 3.0%; 2026: 2.6%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0%; Long - term: 2.0% | 2025: (0.1); 2026: (0.2) | | Core PCE Inflation | 2025: 3.0%; 2026: 2.5%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0% | 2025: 3.1%; 2026: 2.6%; 2027: 2.1%; 2028: 2.0% | 2025: (0.1); 2026: (0.1) | | Interest Rate Cut Range | 2025: Cut by 75 basis points; 2026: Cut by 25 basis points; 2027: Cut by 25 basis points | 2025: Cut by 75 basis points; 2026: Cut by 25 basis points; 2027: Cut by 25 basis points | 2025: The annual interest rate cut range remains unchanged; 2026: The annual interest rate cut range remains unchanged; 2027: The annual interest rate cut range remains unchanged | [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company, with a market price of RMB 9.55 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Longping High-Tech is a leading player in the domestic seed industry, with a well-established industrial layout and a focus on high-quality development. The company's research capabilities are industry-leading, and its asset quality is continuously improving, leading to a positive outlook for its medium to long-term development [2][5]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 85.8 billion, RMB 92.2 billion, and RMB 99.3 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +0.1%, +7.5%, and +7.7% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 2.0 billion, RMB 3.1 billion, and RMB 4.5 billion for the same years, with growth rates of +71.4%, +57.6%, and +46.8% respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to P/E ratios of 71.9X, 45.6X, and 31.1X for the years 2025 to 2027 [6][8]. Company Overview - Longping High-Tech, established in 1999 and listed in 2000, is recognized as a modern high-tech seed enterprise. The company has a comprehensive business structure that includes seed operations and agricultural services, focusing on major crops such as rice, corn, and wheat, as well as specialized crops like cucumbers and sunflowers [16][18]. Research and Development - The company leads the industry in R&D investment, with RMB 6.9 billion allocated in 2024, representing 9.1% of its revenue. The number of dedicated R&D personnel reached 712, accounting for 17.02% of the total workforce. The company has significantly increased its plant variety applications, with 113 authorized in 2024 compared to just 12 in 2016 [31][39]. Market Position - Longping High-Tech holds a dominant position in the seed market, with a market share of 42% in corn seeds and 36% in rice seeds. The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in Brazil, where it ranks among the top three corn seed companies [17][44]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company has accelerated its acquisition strategy since the entry of CITIC Group as a major shareholder in 2016, enhancing its market position and operational capabilities through various acquisitions in the seed industry [28][30].

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,541, up 0.4% for the day and 27.3% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The MSCI China index increased by 0.2%, with a YTD growth of 29.3% [2] - The KOSPI index showed significant growth, up 72.3% YTD, closing at 4,135 [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil prices rose by 1.2% to $63 per barrel, but are down 12.1% YTD [3] - Gold prices increased by 0.5% to $4,229 per ounce, reflecting a substantial YTD rise of 61.1% [3] - Copper prices decreased by 1.3% to $11,487 per ton, with a YTD increase of 31.0% [3] Key Macro Indicators - The US FOMC raised the upper bound of the interest rate to 4.0% from a consensus of 3.8% [4] - China's retail sales growth was reported at 2.9% YoY, matching expectations [4] - The surveyed jobless rate in China remained stable at 5.1% [4] Inflation Insights - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% YoY in November, up from 0.2% in October, driven by recovering food prices [7] - Core CPI growth remained steady at 1.2%, indicating limited expansion in other sectors [7] - CPI growth is expected to recover to 0.5% in 2026, with core CPI increasing from 0.7% to 0.9% [8]

非银金融 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 强于大市 本次风险因子调整降低了保险公司部分长期持仓股票及外贸保险业务相关的 风险因子，旨在培育壮大耐心资本，加大保险行业对外贸企业的支持力度， 有效服务国家战略，有助于提升保险公司资本运用效率，加强资产负债匹配 管理，且有助于股票市场健康稳定发展。对证券行业而言，长期资金入市将 带来增量机构服务业务需求。在行业景气度向好的背景下板块长期估值中枢 有望提升，建议布局头部券商扩大综合优势与中小券商打造差异化特色化竞 争力两条主线。 要点 投资建议 监管政策定调积极，券商板块估值存在向上空间。截至 12 月 9 日，板块 市净率 1.38 倍，位于近十年 35%~36%分位。当前监管政策定调积极，引 导资本市场生态优化与机构高质量发展，证券行业"十五五"发展路径 清晰，政策为增量"耐心资本"入市打开空间，在行业景气度上升背景 下板块长期估值中枢有望上升。建议关注头部综合券商优势扩大以及特 色中小券商错位发展两条主线。 风险提示 监管政策、宏观经济发展及市场流动性表现不及预期；证券市场及利率 大幅波动导致业绩波动加剧；资本市场开放加速带来海 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side competition order optimization boosts inflation recovery, while the demand - side may determine the continuity of inflation. After inflation has reasonably recovered, the bond market will focus more on whether inflation recovery is sustainable, which should be based on not affecting the real economic growth rate. Besides capacity management in key industries, continuous improvement on the demand - side is needed to support inflation continuity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 November CPI Situation - The year - on - year increase of November CPI continued to expand, with food prices being the main driving factor. Core CPI increase was basically the same as the previous month, and the decline of energy prices widened. Due to rainfall and cooling in some areas affecting the production and storage of fresh vegetables, the fresh vegetable price increased by 7.2% month - on - month in November and turned to a 14.5% year - on - year increase, which was the main driving factor for the rise in food prices. Core CPI was in a stable trend, with the year - on - year increase basically unchanged from the previous month [3]. 3.2 PPI Situation - Supply - side competition order optimization promoted the continued improvement of PPI month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline was slightly larger than the previous month. The capacity governance of key industries continued to advance, the market competition order was continuously optimized, and the price decline of industrial products in some key industries narrowed continuously. However, as of October, housing prices still faced downward pressure, which restricted the further improvement of PPI [3]. 3.3 November Rent - related CPI Situation - In November, both the month - on - month and year - on - year declines of rent - related CPI slightly expanded. The supply and demand of urban housing may still be in a balanced state, but expectation factors still restricted the recovery of the real estate market's prosperity [3]. 3.4 Economic Growth and Inflation Continuity - Since China's economy advanced steadily in the first three quarters of this year, the pressure to achieve this year's growth target is not great. In the first half of next year, it is necessary to pay attention to the feedback of real growth indicators such as industrial added value and real GDP growth rate on inflation recovery [3].

非银金融 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 强于大市 基金公司绩效考核新规点评 监管政策、宏观经济发展及市场流动性表现不及预期；证券市场及利率 大幅波动导致业绩波动加剧；资本市场开放加速带来海外市场风险与外 资机构竞争压力；同质化竞争或引发价格战；券商并购不确定性或影响 板块价格稳定。 相关研究报告 强化薪酬与业绩绑定，健全长效激励约束机制 《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意见稿）》下发，推动基金业建立以长 期业绩为核心的考核与薪酬体系，强化从业人员与投资者利益绑定，引导资金长 期配置，优化行业生态，促进资本市场健康发展。在行业景气度向好的背景下 板块长期估值中枢有望提升，建议布局头部券商扩大综合优势与中小券商打 造差异化特色化竞争力两条主线。 要点 投资建议 监管政策定调积极，券商板块估值存在向上空间。截至 12 月 9 日，板块 市净率 1.38 倍，位于近十年 35%~36%分位。当前监管政策定调积极，引 导资本市场生态优化与机构高质量发展，证券行业"十五五"发展路径 清晰，政策为增量"耐心资本"入市打开空间，在行业景气度上升背景 下板块长期估值中枢有望上升。建议关注 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 内需依然偏弱，关注外需波动 11 月 CPI 同比增速符合万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略低于万得一致预期； CPI 同比上行主要靠食品价格，特别是鲜菜价格的拉动，服务价格环比出现 季节性回落；PPI 环比增速连续两个月增长，但 11 月同比降幅较 10 月小幅 扩大，主要受输入性因素影响。 相关研究报告 《政治局会议点评》20251209 《稳中求进、提质增效》20251208 《全面布局"十五五"》20251208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 11 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%，同比增长 0.7%，核心 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，服 务价格同比增长 0.7%，消费品价格同比增长 0.6%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that Guizhou Moutai is focusing on long-term high-quality development, emphasizing channel stability and steady reform progress [2][6][9] - The company acknowledges the current challenges in the liquor industry, indicating that it is in a deep adjustment period with intensified competition [9] - Guizhou Moutai's strategic plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is characterized by a commitment to quality and a balanced approach between short-term and long-term goals [9] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of RMB 39.064 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit of RMB 19.224 billion, also up 0.5% year-on-year [11] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 91.3%, slightly up from 91.0% in Q3 2024, while the net profit margin remained stable at 49.2% [11] - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 72.31, RMB 75.80, and RMB 80.93 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.6X, 18.7X, and 17.5X [6][12] Future Projections - The projected main operating revenue for Guizhou Moutai is expected to reach RMB 180.437 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.6% [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is RMB 90.549 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% [8] - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of RMB 23.957 per share for the current year [9]