Group 1 - The report emphasizes a strong macroeconomic outlook with a focus on the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, particularly in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and its alignment with international uncertainties [2][18][19] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, indicating a positive long-term economic outlook [2][18] - The report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, with expectations for increased government bond issuance and reduced financing costs to stimulate consumption and stabilize foreign trade [2][18][20] Group 2 - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.75% and a drop in the CSI 300 Index futures by 2.04%, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the stock market [11][12] - The bond market is experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, leading to a lower allocation recommendation for bonds, with the ten-year government bond yield decreasing by 3 basis points to 1.71% [12][39] - The report indicates a significant drop in commodity prices, with coking coal futures down 9.83% and iron ore contracts down 1.94%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the commodity sector [11][12][39] Group 3 - The report identifies a need for close monitoring of the implementation of fiscal policies aimed at stimulating growth, particularly in the context of the recent political bureau meeting [4][18] - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, suggesting a mixed economic environment [17][39] - The report highlights the importance of structural reforms and innovation in driving economic growth, particularly in the context of the government's focus on technology and consumption [18][19]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of 京沪高铁 (Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway) with a total revenue of 42.157 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.62%, and a net profit of 12.768 billion yuan, up 10.59% year-on-year, indicating resilience during the post-pandemic recovery phase [3][14][15] - The report emphasizes the emergence of国产算力 (domestic computing power) as a significant driver in the AI industry, with华为 (Huawei) showcasing its昇腾 384超节点 (Ascend 384 super node) at the WAIC 2025, which is the largest in the industry and demonstrates a shift from chip-centric to system-level optimization [6][8][10] Group 1: Communication Industry - The report discusses the role of major telecom operators like中国移动 (China Mobile), 中国电信 (China Telecom), and 中国联通 (China Unicom) in the AI landscape, showcasing their transformation into AI infrastructure providers and industry enablers, which injects strong momentum into the digital transformation of the economy [10][11] - The operators are investing heavily in computing infrastructure, with China Mobile planning to invest 37.3 billion yuan in computing power, while both China Telecom and China Unicom are increasing their investments by over 20% year-on-year [13] Group 2: Transportation Industry - The京沪高铁 is recognized as a landmark project in China's high-speed rail network, having transported over 1.6 billion passengers since its opening, with a business model that relies on entrusted transportation management [15][16] - The report notes that the high-speed rail industry is expected to see over 3.2 billion passengers in 2024, with the increasing preference for high-speed rail as a travel option among the public [15][16] Group 3: Key Factors Influencing Growth - For the京沪高铁, factors such as a market-oriented pricing mechanism, strong economic support from the surrounding provinces, and advancements in train technology are identified as critical to sustaining growth [16] - In the domestic computing power sector, the increasing demand for controllable AI infrastructure due to high-end chip shortages and export restrictions is driving the growth of国产算力, with significant investments from major tech companies like阿里巴巴 (Alibaba) and腾讯 (Tencent) [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in July were impressive, with the State Council's meeting emphasizing the need to regulate competition in the NEV industry, which is expected to benefit the sector's development. The introduction of new models in the second half of the year is anticipated to sustain high growth in domestic NEV sales, driving demand for batteries and materials [1][2]. - In the solid-state battery sector, Guoxuan High-Tech has officially initiated the design work for its first-generation solid-state battery production line, indicating a clear trend towards industrialization in this area. Attention should be paid to the progress of related materials and equipment companies [1][2]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the central economic work conference has called for a comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition, aiming to guide companies to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice regarding energy-saving supervision tasks for the polysilicon industry in 2025, maintaining a focus on energy consumption [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electric equipment and new energy sector experienced a decline of 2.62% this week, with the wind power sector slightly increasing by 0.06%. The NEV index fell by 0.30%, while the lithium battery index saw a significant drop of 6.26% [2][10][13]. Key Industry Information - NEV deliveries in July included BYD with 344,300 units (up 1% year-on-year), Leap Motor with 50,100 units (up 127%), and Xpeng with 36,700 units (up 229%). However, Li Auto and NIO saw declines of 40% and 3%, respectively [2][27]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice for energy-saving supervision in the polysilicon industry, and the China Electricity Council predicts an addition of 400 GW of new energy generation capacity by 2025 [2][27]. Company Developments - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) reported a 33.33% year-on-year increase in net profit to CNY 30.485 billion for the first half of the year [30]. - Container Technology Co., Ltd. announced a stock issuance plan approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [30]. - The report highlights various companies' performance, including a significant loss reported by Rongbai Technology and a profit increase for Hongfa Technology [30]. Price Observations - The report notes that the prices of polysilicon and photovoltaic materials have shown fluctuations, with polysilicon prices stabilizing around CNY 49-55 per kg for dense materials and CNY 43-46 per kg for granular materials [15][19]. - The average price of silicon wafers has increased, with 183N wafers rising to CNY 1.20 per piece and 210N wafers reaching CNY 1.55 per piece [16][21]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain adjustments and the impact of international policies on pricing and demand in the photovoltaic sector, particularly in relation to the U.S. market [20][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Some key commodity futures prices with large gains the previous week significantly declined, such as coking coal and rebar, alleviating the expectation of a rapid rebound in PPI, and government bond yields started to fall from the middle of the week [2]. - The State Council deployed interest subsidies for personal consumer loans and loans to service - sector business entities. If interest - subsidy measures are more used to reduce financing costs, the theoretical necessity of interest rate cuts decreases [2]. - Starting from August 8th, newly issued government bonds and financial bonds will resume VAT collection. After the policy was announced on Friday, government bond yields declined overall, and it may guide the yields of existing government bonds and financial bonds downward [2]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Food**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, the edible agricultural product price index remained flat week - on - week, and the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.02% week - on - week [11]. - **Other Consumer Goods**: The movie box office revenue increased by 43.31% week - on - week [11]. - **Commodities**: The RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 0.61% week - on - week, the LME copper spot price decreased by 1.52% week - on - week, and the LME aluminum spot price decreased by 1.95% week - on - week [11]. - **Energy**: The futures settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased by 4.09% and 4.12% week - on - week respectively, and the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 8.23% week - on - week [11]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The LME copper and aluminum spot prices decreased week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio increased by 0.55% week - on - week [11]. - **Ferrous Metals**: The rebar inventory increased by 2.99% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased by 4.47% week - on - week [11]. - **Real Estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 6.99% week - on - week, and the total transaction price of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 102.13% week - on - week [11]. - **Shipping**: The CCFI composite index decreased by 2.30% week - on - week, and the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 3.13% week - on - week [11] High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentions multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators [18][21][33] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentions charts related to US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, etc. [74][76][79] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentions multiple charts showing the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as the daily average output of crude steel and the production material price index [86][90][95] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentions charts showing the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [146][148]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on technology growth opportunities in the market, indicating a shift towards structural investment rather than index performance [1][10] - The AI industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of a rebound driven by domestic computing power improvements and software application advancements [1][29] - The report notes a significant increase in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, with a notable 21% increase from July 1 to August 1 [1][29] Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a light index but heavy structural focus, with a controlled risk of decline due to weak recovery in the fundamental backdrop [1][10] - The political bureau meeting has shifted focus towards the implementation of existing policies rather than new initiatives, indicating a stable but cautious economic outlook [1][9] - The market sentiment has recovered to near yearly highs, suggesting a potential for a phase of expectation fulfillment in the short term [1][10] Industry Insights - The top ten industries recommended for August include light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, beauty care, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, basic chemicals, communications, defense, and social services [1][29] - The defense and military industry is expected to receive continuous catalysts leading up to the upcoming military parade, with historical patterns suggesting a "high before the event" trading behavior [1][26] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the stock price fluctuations in the military industry, especially in light of historical trends observed during previous military parades [1][26] Fund Flow Analysis - The report indicates a significant net sell-off in the A-share market, with a net outflow of 192.79 billion yuan, marking the largest weekly sell-off in four months [1][40] - The pharmaceutical sector saw the highest net inflow of 10.746 billion yuan, while the largest outflows were from non-bank financials and power equipment [1][40] - The report notes a continued net subscription in stock ETFs, primarily focused on Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift in investor interest [1][40]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company for the first time [1][4]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 42.157 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.768 billion, up 10.59%, demonstrating strong resilience during the post-pandemic recovery phase [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from accelerated revenue growth from the Jingfu Anhui line and the anticipated contribution of additional passenger trains from the Xiongshang high-speed railway, which is expected to open in 2026, indicating significant long-term growth potential [1][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a landmark project in China's high-speed rail network, with a total length of 1,318 kilometers, officially opened in 2011 and listed on the A-share market in 2020. It has transported over 1.6 billion passengers [17][20]. Business Model - The company operates under a commissioned transportation management model, where the organization of transportation is managed by the respective railway bureaus along the line. Its main revenue sources are passenger transportation and network service income, with the latter steadily increasing in proportion [29][30]. Financial Performance - The company reported a record high operating revenue of over RMB 42 billion in 2024, with a net profit exceeding RMB 12 billion, indicating a strong recovery from the pandemic. The revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.223 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.16% [42][44]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 45.4%, down from 51.1% in 2019, primarily due to changes in passenger flow structure post-pandemic [44]. Industry Context - The high-speed rail industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with passenger volume expected to exceed 3.2 billion in 2024, making it one of the most preferred modes of transportation for the public [57][61]. - The ongoing market-oriented reforms in high-speed rail ticket pricing are expected to enhance revenue generation, with the company implementing a differentiated pricing strategy that offers competitive advantages over air travel [64][65].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the three major telecom operators in China—China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom—are transitioning from traditional communication providers to "AI infrastructure providers, industry enablers, and security guardians," significantly contributing to the digital transformation of the economy and society [1][3]. - The integration of AI into various sectors is seen as a key driver of the new technological revolution and industrial transformation, with telecom operators playing a crucial role in this evolution [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that telecom operators will significantly benefit from the performance growth and value reassessment brought by intelligent computing services under the AI wave. It recommends focusing on the three major operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as their partnerships with computing service providers such as Runze Technology, Pingzhi Information, Zhongbei Communication, ZTE, Fenghuo Communication, and Unisplendour [3]. Industry Developments - The report emphasizes the practical AI capabilities demonstrated by the telecom operators at WAIC 2025, showcasing their role as a "digital infrastructure national team" and their technological leadership in building a smart service ecosystem that covers both industry and people's livelihoods [3]. - The collaboration between computing power and network innovation is highlighted as a core logic for the operators' computing infrastructure, leading to significant breakthroughs in computing resource utilization and efficiency [3]. Infrastructure Investment - In 2025, the three major operators are expected to increase their investments in computing infrastructure, with China Mobile planning to invest 37.3 billion RMB in this area. Both China Telecom and China Unicom are projected to see over 20% year-on-year growth in their computing investments [3]. - The report notes that the domestic server procurement by China Unicom has exceeded 90% for domestic servers, while China Mobile has the largest single liquid-cooled intelligent computing center among global operators, with over 85% of its computing power being domestically sourced [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of Huawei's Ascend 384 super node, which represents a shift in the domestic AI industry from a chip-centric approach to a system-coordinated optimization strategy. This development showcases the robust growth momentum of the domestic computing power industry chain [3][6]. - The Ascend 384 super node, consisting of 12 computing cabinets and 4 bus cabinets, integrates 384 Ascend 910C NPUs and 192 Kunpeng CPUs, achieving a theoretical performance close to twice that of NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72. It provides 300 PFLOPS of BF16 computing power, addressing the bottlenecks in large model training through high-speed interconnect technology [3][6]. - The report emphasizes the strong order fulfillment capability of the Ascend platform, which has been widely applied in high-computing scenarios across various sectors, including finance, power, transportation, and government [3][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Development Trends - The report notes that the domestic AI computing power industry is expanding, driven by the increasing demand for controllable AI infrastructure amid high-end chip shortages and export restrictions. The success of the Ascend 384 super node demonstrates the feasibility of achieving a closed-loop in the domestic computing power industry chain [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in the domestic AI computing power network infrastructure, focusing on telecom operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as server and switch equipment manufacturers like ZTE, Unisoc, Inspur, and Ruijie Networks [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that significant investments from major players like Alibaba, which plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud computing and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, will open up larger market opportunities for domestic computing power solutions [3][6].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 8 月 1 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3573.21 | (1.18) | | 深证成指 | 11009.77 | (1.73) | | 沪深 300 | 4075.59 | (1.82) | | 中小 100 | 6833.61 | (1.84) | | 创业板指 | 2328.31 | (1.66) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | 0.39 | 钢铁 | (4.08) | | 通信 | 0.06 | 有色金属 | (3.19) | | 综合 | (0.29) | 房地产 | (3.14) | | 国防军工 | (0.39) | 煤炭 | (2.72) | | 银行 | (0.50) | 非银金融 | (2.57) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20250801 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】"十四五"收官，"十五五"开局*张晓娇 朱启兵。中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the federal funds rate as expected, with two dissenters advocating a 25 - basis - point cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a September rate cut, and after the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently. The Fed will make decisions based on future data and has left room to delay rate cuts [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Outcomes - The Fed's July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4 - 1/4 to 4 - 1/2 percent. Governors Bowman and Waller voted against, preferring a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was in line with their previous statements [3][8]. - After the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose by 6, 5, and 2 basis points respectively. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December according to CME FedWatch dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. Powell's Press Conference Key Information Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell emphasized that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is in the early stage, with monthly tariff revenue reaching $30 billion, and only a small part borne by exporters. Upstream companies and retailers plan to pass on costs to consumers [5]. - He believed that there is still a long way to assess the full impact of tariffs, suggesting that there may not be a clear judgment even in September [5]. - He stated that the Fed "looking through" temporary inflation only means not raising rates, not a reason for rate cuts, and the Fed will ensure the "one - time" nature of the impact [5]. Labor Market - The labor market is robust but has downward risks. Although new job growth has slowed significantly, the unemployment rate is low, and indicators such as the quit rate and the ratio of job openings to the unemployed are relatively stable. However, the low unemployment rate is due to both a slowdown in labor demand and a reduction in labor supply caused by immigration policies [5]. Economic Growth - Powell downplayed the recognition of "moderate" economic growth slowdown in the meeting statement, saying that the weakening of GDP and final private consumption was in line with expectations. He reiterated that policy focuses on the dual goals of "inflation and employment," suggesting that as long as the job market is stable, the growth slowdown is not enough to trigger a policy shift [6]. Uncertainty - Powell thought the level of uncertainty was the same as in June. Although the current estimate of tariff levels has converged, future uncertainty is still high, and the meeting statement removed the expression of "reduced uncertainty" [6]. Inflation - Powell expected that excluding tariffs, current inflation remains above the 2% target. The composition of inflation pressure has changed, with sticky service inflation easing and tariff increases pushing up prices of some goods [6]. Fed Independence - Powell firmly stated that the Fed will not consider government fiscal needs to maintain its independence, warning that if the Fed loses independence, the government could manipulate rate cuts to influence elections [7]. Future Policy Outlook - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its current policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently [7]. - There will be two rounds of employment and inflation data before September, and the Fed will make decisions based on future data, leaving room to delay rate cuts [7]. Suggestions - Powell's statements seem to be somewhat inconsistent with the economic assessment in the FOMC statement. It is recommended to follow the statements of other voting members to determine if this reflects the overall tendency of the committee [7]. - Powell's avoidance of giving a September rate - cut guidance may trigger stronger pressure from the Trump administration [7].