基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250420 国际油价上涨，海外天然气、 MDI 、 TDI 价格下跌 四月份，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，建议关注年报季报行情， 自主可控日益关键的电子材料公司，以及分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250413》20250413 《化工行业周报 20250406》20250408 《化工行业周报 20250330》20250331 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 本周（04.14-04.20）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 23 个品种价格上涨，55 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for April, including 中远海特 (600428.SH), 极兔速递-W (1519.HK), and 宁德时代 (300750.SZ) among others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a strong support for China's trade surplus from Europe, the US, and ASEAN, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, surpassing expectations [2][9] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the Chinese economy despite external pressures, with significant contributions from manufacturing and infrastructure investments [9][12] Industry Performance - The communication sector showed a positive growth of 1.59%, while the beauty care and social services sectors experienced declines of 2.46% and 2.45% respectively, indicating varied performance across industries [2] - The report notes that the telecommunications industry may benefit from Germany's policy changes, which could allow more Chinese companies to participate in European infrastructure projects [3][16] Macroeconomic Analysis - In Q1 2025, the actual GDP growth was 5.4%, with industrial output and retail sales also exceeding expectations, driven by export demand and consumer subsidies [9][11] - The report discusses the impact of the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy, which is expected to affect China's exports throughout 2025, necessitating a shift towards non-US markets [12][9] Company-Specific Insights - 万华化学 (Wanhua Chemical) reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, a 3.83% increase year-on-year, but faced a 22.49% decline in net profit [4][19] - The company is focusing on expanding its polyurethane and fine chemicals segments, with significant production increases expected in the coming years [20][21] - Wanhua Chemical is also investing in technological innovations, particularly in battery materials, to enhance its competitive edge [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies in the telecommunications sector due to potential growth from policy changes in Europe, particularly for Chinese firms [16][17] - It also highlights the importance of focusing on high-tech industries and consumer goods to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [15][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 95.60 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching RMB 1.75 billion, a year-over-year increase of 109%. The gross margin improved to 22.8%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year. The automotive business is expected to deepen its layout, contributing to future growth [4][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from new product launches, particularly the LOFIC+200MP, which is anticipated to drive incremental revenue in 2025. The smartphone, automotive, and security sectors are all experiencing robust growth [4][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 2.14, RMB 3.32, and RMB 4.16 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 44.7, 28.8, and 23.0 [6][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The company’s main revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 5.968 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 108.9%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach RMB 8.556 billion, with a growth rate of 43.4% [8][9]. - The smartphone business is expected to generate RMB 3.291 billion in revenue in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 269%, accounting for 55.2% of total revenue [9]. Profitability - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 393 million, a significant increase of 2,662.8% year-over-year. For 2025, the net profit is expected to reach RMB 859 million [8][9]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1.192 billion, with a growth rate of 70.6% [8][9]. Market Position - The company ranks fifth globally in the smartphone CIS market with an 11.2% market share in 2024. In the automotive CIS market, it is ranked fourth globally and second domestically [9]. - The security business is expected to generate RMB 2.150 billion in revenue in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 29%, maintaining its leading position in the global market [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant revenue and profit growth, with total revenue reaching RMB 3.605 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.57%, and a net profit of RMB 401 million, up 56.79% year-on-year [5][9] - The precision components business is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, supported by advancements in ultra-pure target materials and third-generation semiconductor materials [5][8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic production wave, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [5][8] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 3,605 million, with a growth rate of 38.57% compared to 2023 [9] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 28.17%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.97, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35.4 times [5][7] Business Segments - The ultra-pure metal sputtering target segment generated revenue of RMB 2.333 billion in 2024, growing by 39.51% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.35% [8][9] - The precision components business achieved revenue of RMB 887 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.53% [8][9] - The company is actively developing a diverse product range, including high-density tungsten targets and various precision components, which are widely used in core processes such as gas phase deposition and etching [8][9] Future Outlook - The company is investing in projects to enhance its production capacity, including a new facility for ultra-pure metal sputtering targets, which is expected to improve international competitiveness and supply chain stability [8][9] - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 25.6% for 2025, 25.4% for 2026, and 24.3% for 2027 [7][11]

通信 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 4 月 20 日 强于大市 德国政策调整有望重振我 国移动通信出海产业链 2025 年 4 月德国政策删除"可信国家"条款，如果德国照此执行并可能有欧 盟其他国家跟进，将为中国厂商更多的参与欧洲基础设施建设提供可能。国 内 6G 产业发展同出海需求重振共同利好移动通信产业链，建议关注相关标 的。 支撑评级的要点 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 宏观经济环境不稳定、地缘政治风险、德国政策具有不确定性。 相关研究报告 《三大运营商加速竞逐 AI赛道，转型红利已现》 20250331 《AI 系列跟踪专题报告》20250319 《商业航天地位凸显，大模型应用推动算力建 设》20250306 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 通信 证券分析师：庄宇 yu.zhuang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060004 证券分析师：袁妲 da.yuan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300524070003 证券分析师：吕然 (8610)66229185 ran.lv@bocichina.com ...

中银量化大类资产跟踪 A 股缩量回升，大盘红利占优 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股上涨，港股上涨，美股下跌，其他海外权益市场普遍上涨 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度当前仍处于历史较低位置，近期快速下降。 小盘 vs大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度持续处于历史低位；大盘风格 近期拥挤度下降至历史较低位置。 微盘股 vs基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度持续处于历史极高分位；基金重仓拥 挤度近一年波动剧烈，当前处于历史适中位置，超额累计净值处于历史 低位。 资金面与动量/反转风格：当前资金总量处于长期下降阶段，反转较动量 长期占优，与经验一致。 金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 4 月 20 日 A 股行情及成交热度 ◼ 本周领涨的行业为银行、非银行金融、煤炭；领跌的行业为电力设备及 新能源、农林牧渔、计算机。本周沪深 300、中证500、创业板指数成交 热度较上周下降。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 ◼ 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为商贸零售、汽车、房地产， 居后的行业为医药、食品饮料、电力设备及新能源。 利率市场 ...

◼ 股票方面，A 股在上周大幅下跌后本周窄幅震荡。全周累计看，本周大盘和小盘股表 现较好，中盘股（中证 500、中证 1000）表现相对较差，上证 50 上涨 1.5%，微盘股 指数上涨 2.9%，中证 500 下跌 0.4%，中证 1000 下跌 0.5%。港股恒生指数上涨 2.3%， 但恒生科技指数下跌 0.3%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数 8 个下跌，23 个上 涨，其中银行、房地产和综合 3 个行业领涨，国防军工和农林牧渔领跌。周内看，受 周末美国对部分商品免征"对等关税"利好影响，周一（4 月 14 日）市场走强，当天 4550 家公司上涨，130 家公司涨停。周二至周五市场维持震荡走势，周三（4 月 16 日）发布一季度经济数据后市场有所走弱，尤其小盘股，以中证 2000 为例，当天中 午收盘时最多下跌超过 3%，但下午有所反弹。本周美股主要指数下跌，标普 500 下 跌 1.5%，纳斯达克 100 下跌 2.3%，受英伟达 H20 芯片被美国限制出口以及阿斯麦业 绩不及预期影响，本周科技七巨头指数下跌达到 5.2%。全球其他主要市场大部分上 涨，MSCI 发达市场（除美国）指数上涨 4 ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 4 月 20 日 相关研究报告 《美债与美国自然利率》20230402 《加息尾声的美元反弹》20230521 《关注货币活性下降》20230813 《美债利率上行遇阻》20231029 《如何看待美债利率回落》20231105 《中债收益率曲线已较为平坦》20231112 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《联储表态温和、降息预期高涨》20231214 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《长期利率或将度过快速下行阶段》20231231 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《美联储能否实现"软着陆"?》20240602 《当前影响利率的财政因素》20240630 《中性利率成为关键》20240922 《如何看中美长债对降息的反应》20240929 《美国经济看点：AI 浪潮与家庭债务》20241103 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《提前开始关税叫价？》20241207 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 20 日 策略周报 政策窗口期，交易内需及自主可控 市场进入"政治局会议"政策交易窗口期，市场短期上行动能趋缓但下行风险 可控，关注内需及自主可控主线，重视涨价逻辑。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S130052210000 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 4 月 20 日 其二，提振高技术产业投资。一季度我国高技术产业固定资产投资同比 增长 6.5%，延续正增长。大力提振高技术制造业投资，既是发展"新质 生产力"的要求，也有利于拓宽我国机电产品的国内市场，应对海外不确 定性。 ◼ 风险提示：海外衰退风险加剧；地缘关系不确定性加强。 一季度财政数据点评 广义财政发力延续前倾 3 月公共财政收入同比增幅有所收窄。社保就业支出是 3 月公共财政支出的 重点之一。土地收入不振对广义财政的掣肘仍较明显。 ◼ 3 月公共财政收入实现 16333.0 亿元，同比增长 0.3%；其中，当月税收 收入实现 11101.0 亿元，同比降幅实现 2.2%；非税收入规模为 5232.0 亿 元，同比增长 5.9 %。 3 月权重税种中，国内增值税对当月税收收入同比增速维持正贡献，当 月国内增值税同比增长 4.9%，拉动当月税收同比增速 2.2 个百分点。需 要注意的是，3 月社会消费品零售总额同比增速实现 5.9%，对消费端税 种表现有所支撑。3 月国内消费税收入同比增速实现 9.6%，拉动当月税 收同比增速 0.9个百分点。3 ...