证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：经济景气度连续两周回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。由于模型 使用数据的更新频率不同，随着模型数据持续更新，数据质量提升，对前两周 GDP 测 算进行相应修订。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 4 月 12 日）为 5.6%，较上周修订值 5.7%略有放 缓，或表征一季度经济开门红脉冲后，经济增长景气有所回摆。我们认为，随着美国 加征关税的冲击，GDP 周频景气指数或有所承压，有待持续跟踪验证。 从生产法来看，服务业、工 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in operations with steady profit growth and improved operating cash flow. The total revenue for the year was 2.146 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 204 million, an increase of 4.88%. The operating cash flow reached 264 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 419.77% [1][12] Business Performance - The smart procurement business segment generated revenue of 948 million, down 7.17% year-on-year, while the procurement operation business achieved revenue of 388 million, up 6.33% year-on-year. The overall gross margin remained stable at 61.20% [1] - The company secured multiple large projects, including the procurement bidding platform for Dongfeng Motor Corporation and the electronic procurement platform upgrade for China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [2] - The company is actively integrating AI technology into its operations, launching the "Trading Brain" project, which is the first AI model innovation in the public resource trading sector [2][3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.291 billion, 2.520 billion, and 2.804 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 237 million, 281 million, and 348 million. The expected EPS for these years is 0.72, 0.85, and 1.05, with a PE ratio of 42.33 for 2025 [10][12]

Core Insights - The report highlights that China's economic resilience has improved compared to the previous trade friction, suggesting that internal stability may be the best countermeasure against external pressures [1] - It anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing growth will likely be intensified, with a focus on expanding consumption and monetary easing [1][3] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: self-sufficiency and industrial trends (semiconductors, AI, rare earths, military industry), boosting domestic demand and growth transformation (new consumption, service consumption, fertility), and defensive attributes with stable dividends [1] Group 1: Expanding Domestic Consumption - The report emphasizes that expanding domestic consumption is a priority, especially in light of increased tariffs from the U.S. which may significantly impact exports [2][21] - It suggests that existing policies supporting new consumption may see increased intensity, including broader subsidy ratios and product support ranges [2] - The service consumption sector, which constitutes a significant portion of overall consumer spending, could benefit from subsidies if extended beyond goods to services, positively impacting sectors like tourism and hospitality [26] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Structural Tools - There is an expectation of rising monetary easing, with potential for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth [3][38] - The report notes that structural policy tools related to consumption and exports are likely to be introduced, which could further stimulate economic activity [3] - Historical data indicates that monetary easing typically benefits small-cap growth stocks, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus towards these sectors [39] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Real Estate - The report anticipates a faster pace of fiscal spending, with potential expansions in areas such as consumption, employment, and foreign trade [4] - It predicts a new round of real estate policy measures may open up in the second quarter, aimed at sustaining the recovery momentum in the housing market [5] - The report highlights that the necessity to expand domestic demand is greater this year than in previous years, indicating a strategic focus on real estate as a key area for policy intervention [5][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that align with self-sufficiency and industrial trends, particularly in technology and strategic resources such as semiconductors and military industries [6] - It also recommends investing in consumer sectors that can benefit from domestic demand boosts, including electronics, retail, and services related to tourism and hospitality [6] - Additionally, it highlights the importance of defensive assets with stable dividends, such as utilities and consumer staples, which may provide resilience in uncertain market conditions [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.63 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.4% [1] - Despite fluctuations in profit margins due to channel investments, the company demonstrated confidence in its growth by actively opening new stores [1][4] - The children's clothing segment showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 9.6% year-on-year, highlighting the resilience of the leading brand [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.1% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.8%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the sales expense ratio increased by 1.5 percentage points due to proactive marketing and store openings [3] Business Segments - The children's clothing and leisure segments generated revenues of 10.27 billion yuan and 4.19 billion yuan, respectively, with gross margins of 47.3% and 35.5% [2] - The company opened a net of 280 new children's clothing stores and 108 leisure stores, bringing the total to 5,514 and 2,811 stores, respectively [2] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.65 billion yuan, 16.56 billion yuan, and 17.42 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 7.0%, 5.8%, and 5.2% [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 83% in 2024, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [4]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 13 日 增量资金入场，利好稳健类转债 核心观点 我们认为权益市场短期增量资金主要是汇金公司，市场风格倾向于大盘稳健风格，短 期建议投资者关注高等级、基本面稳健的转债，而对于新质生产力相关转债，短期已 经有充分调整，也可逢低买入。 ❑ 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 过去一周（4 月 7 日至 4 月 11 日，下同）转债指数普遍下跌，其中可转债信息 技术、可选消费、公用事业行业指数，AA+转债指数领跌。估值方面，债性、平 衡性、股性转债的估值普遍上升。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅下降到 118.45 元，处在 2017 年以来的 69.74%水平。整体来看，当前转债市场相对此前的高涨 状态逐渐降温。 我们认为当前可转债市场跟随权益出现滞涨状态，一方面在于新质生产力相关板 块短期涨幅过高，市场在年报密集披露前后定价核心重回基本面，而该部分相关 标的普遍短期业绩预期无法落地，市场或有风格切换的可能性；另一方面，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而 非成长预期；此外，评级公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the industrial gas sector in China, characterized by a dual strategy of "defense and offense" focused on domestic demand. The gas industry is currently at a cyclical low, and after undergoing an "extreme pressure test" in 2024, the company's performance is expected to turn upward [1][4] - The market is concerned about potential declines in the company's performance due to macroeconomic pressures and international trade frictions. However, the company is primarily a domestic demand player, with 95% of its revenue coming from domestic sources in 2024, making it less susceptible to trade risks. With gas prices hitting historical lows in 2024, the company's performance is believed to have bottomed out [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Pipeline Gas - The company's pipeline gas segment provides a defensive attribute, showing stable growth with minimal impact from macroeconomic fluctuations. The cumulative signed oxygen production capacity for 2024 is expected to reach 3.5 million Nm³/h, an 8.6% increase year-on-year, ensuring steady growth in pipeline gas volume [2][4] - The company holds a 9% market share in the third-party gas supply market as of 2021, with expectations to increase this to 30-40% in the long term, contributing to stable long-term performance [2] Retail Gas - The retail gas segment represents the company's offensive strategy, with current gas prices at historical lows. As of April 11, the comprehensive industrial gas price is 453 RMB/ton, down 27% year-on-year, and at the 12th percentile of historical data, reflecting a 77% decline from the peak in 2021. If the macroeconomic environment improves, retail gas could provide significant performance upside [2][4] Air Separation Equipment - The company is the leading domestic air separation equipment manufacturer, benefiting from demand in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector and overseas markets. The share of foreign trade orders is expected to reach nearly 17% in 2024, indicating robust growth [3][4] Other Areas - The company is exploring new growth areas such as specialty gases and new energy gases, aiming to address supply chain challenges and provide solutions for various industries, including semiconductors and aerospace [3][4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.067 billion RMB, 1.298 billion RMB, and 1.513 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17%. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 18, 15, and 12 [11][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Buy" [7] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank's earnings have shown significant growth, with a 25Q1 revenue and net profit increase of 2.2% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, despite a decline in growth rates compared to 2024 [2][6] - The bank plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 24.5% for 2024, up by 2.0 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.50% [5][6] - The bank's loan and deposit balances grew by 14.3% and 21.1% year-on-year as of 25Q1, indicating a continuation of high growth [2] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In 25Q1, Hangzhou Bank's revenue and net profit increased by 2.2% and 17.3% year-on-year, although the growth rates decreased by 7.4 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][6] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 11 percentage points to 530% [1][4] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 24.5%, which is an increase of 2.0 percentage points from 2023, leading to a dividend yield of 4.50%, surpassing the average for city commercial banks [5][6] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of 25Q1, the bank's loans and deposits grew by 14.3% and 21.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a sustained high growth trend [2] Interest Margin - The bank's interest margin decreased by 9 basis points to 1.35% in 24Q4, primarily due to downward pressure on asset yields [3] - It is anticipated that the decline in interest margin will narrow in 2025, supported by effective cost control on liabilities and a slowdown in the decline of asset yields [3] Asset Quality - While the bank's asset quality indicators showed improvement, there is a noted increase in non-performing loans, particularly in retail assets, with the non-performing loan generation rate rising to 0.80% in 24A, up 35 basis points from 23A [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 电力设备 供给发力，静待拐点 ——电新行业 2025 年一季度业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 光伏：供需格局改善，基本面拐点成为下一轮预期修复重点 需求侧：新能源电力入市推动光伏装机进入市场化驱动新阶段。供给侧：行业自律驱动产 业链盈利修复，技术迭代创造提升空间。供给侧改革和新技术渗透齐头并进，看好 1）制 造能力突出，穿越周期的主产业链标的；2）BC、HJT 等新技术研发实力领先，有望加速 放量的主、辅材标的；3）业务横向拓展，打造第二增长曲线的辅材公司。 ❑ 储能：户储基本面逐步好转，工商储放量趋势明确 Q1 为储能出货传统淡季，但在今年 Q1 需求好转明显，在 Q2 旺季有望持续向上。户储方 面，西欧市场户储逆变器临近去库拐点、工商储景气度上行，非欧美户储需求保持较高增 速。大储方面，全球大储需求多点开花，灵活性资源需求、能源转型需求、电网建设水平 薄弱等成为需求爆发的重要驱动力，欧洲、非欧美大储进入爆发增长阶段，国内大储价格 也有望呈现企稳态势。 ❑ 风电：需求旺盛排产紧俏，产业链涨价盈利修复 需求侧：国内一季度以来风电装机节奏加快，下游需求旺盛，产业链排产较满，2025 年 ...

分析当前我国对美出口的现状可以发现，2024 年中国直接出口美国商品金额占 比不到 15%，其中机械设备、家电、家具、纺织行业对美出口依赖度较高；而航 空航天设备、农产品、机械设备、光学和医疗设备等行业板块对美进口依赖度较 高。在特朗普政府出台"对等关税"背景下，政策不确定性剧增，美国贸易政策 不确定性指数（TPU）达到 2010 年来的最高水平。 ❑ ESG 因素在贸易壁垒中发挥着重要作用 分析中国与主要贸易对象的 ESG 壁垒，可以发现，欧盟作为可持续发展的主要 推进地区，设置了多项 ESG 规范，并通过供应链传导"布鲁塞尔效应"，追求 经济发展与可持续竞争力的平衡。美国则主要处于遏制中国高端制造业出海的战 略目的，以 ESG 为幌子限制中国企业的贸易。东南亚位于全球产业链的上游， 受到欧盟等地区 ESG 规范的影响，推动本土化 ESG 规范的落地，同时以 ESG 为 重要手段推进产业升级。 证券研究报告 | 专题研究 | ESG 及绿色金融 "对等关税"背景下 ESG 与全球贸易浅析 ——ESG 因素与全球供应链复杂性相交织 核心观点 近期，特朗普政府对全球多国征收"对等关税"引发市场关注。我们认为当前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The company expects stable profit growth in 2025, driven by improved pricing and operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has a diversified product range and a strong integrated supply chain, which enhances its resilience against market fluctuations [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.71% year-on-year, with a net profit of 642 million yuan, down 8.32% quarter-on-quarter and 32.31% year-on-year [1][2] - The total sales volume for paper products in 2024 was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 12.76% year-on-year, while pulp sales remained flat at 1.46 million tons [2] Product Analysis - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes cultural paper at 13.0 billion yuan (down 2.3%), coated paper at 4.13 billion yuan (up 17.9%), and corrugated boxboard at 10.93 billion yuan (up 11.5%) [2] - The average price for dissolving pulp in Q4 2024 was 7,742 yuan per ton, with expectations for stable profitability in the domestic market [3] Operational Strategy - The company is optimizing its production capacity, with a total capacity exceeding 12 million tons in 2024, and plans for new production lines in 2025 [5] - The relocation of the dissolving pulp production line is expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability starting in Q2 2025 [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.178 billion yuan, 49.892 billion yuan, and 52.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.02%, 15.55%, and 6.05% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 3.6 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 4.559 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.08%, 15.01%, and 10.13% [12]