Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guomai Culture is "Buy" (first-time rating) [3] Core Views - Guomai Culture is a rare investment target driven by "AI technology + film IP," with the AI proofreading tool reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the publishing industry, alongside the strong IP animation film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," expected to drive a revenue growth of 40% in 2025, with significant growth potential exceeding expectations from both technology monetization and content commercialization [1][6] Summary by Sections AI Technology: Core Driver for Publishing Industry Upgrade - The AI proofreading tool addresses the high standards of proofreading in the publishing industry, with a predicted market size of 5 billion yuan for proofreading services [2][31] - The AI proofreading tool's speed has improved from approximately 280 characters per second to about 600 characters per second as of January 2025 [2][39] Film IP: Potential of "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms" - The animated film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," set to release in 2025, is expected to enhance profit elasticity for the company, with a projected box office of 1.744 billion yuan, similar to "Chang'an 30,000 Li" [2][42] - The company has invested 40 million yuan in the film, anticipating a profit of 4 million yuan based on a 40% revenue share from a 500 million yuan box office [2][42] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 574 million yuan in 2024 to 801 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 39.6% [8][50] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 138 million yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22x [6][50] - The target price for the stock is set at 49 yuan per share, based on a target P/E of 35x for 2025 [6][48] Business Structure and Performance - The company emphasizes internet marketing and AI research, with internet sales revenue reaching 116 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 40.45% [18] - The company reported a revenue of 393 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.48% [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" [8] Core Views - Meituan is a leader in local lifestyle services, with stable growth in food delivery, optimized in-store competition, and significant growth in flash purchase services [1] - The report anticipates that advertising revenue will enhance user experience (UE) optimization, driving profitability in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The competition with Douyin in the in-store business is expected to stabilize, with Meituan maintaining a strong user base and merchant resources [5][6] - Flash purchase services are projected to accelerate penetration into lower-tier markets, with significant growth in order volume [7][12] Summary by Sections 1. Delivery Business - Healthy growth in food delivery orders is driven by high penetration and favorable weather conditions, with expectations for advertising revenue to enhance UE [2] - The potential for increased profitability in food delivery lies in improving the advertising monetization rate [3] - There remains room for growth in order volume through repeat purchases and promotional strategies targeting both high and low-tier cities [3][4] 2. In-store Business - The in-store travel and dining segment has ample growth potential, with a competitive landscape that allows for differentiated strategies [5] - Meituan's user mindset and merchant resource base are solid, maintaining a competitive edge against Douyin [6] 3. Flash Purchase Business - The flash purchase segment is expanding rapidly, with a focus on potential categories and deeper market penetration [7][12] - The model of "flash warehouses" is particularly suited for lower-tier markets, enhancing order volume significantly [12] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at CNY 337.01 billion, CNY 390.99 billion, and CNY 449.64 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.78%, 16.02%, and 15.00% [15][20] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach CNY 431.71 billion, CNY 540.59 billion, and CNY 715.64 billion for the same years, reflecting substantial growth [15][20] 5. Valuation and Target Price - The target market capitalization for Meituan is set at CNY 1,081.2 billion, with an expected upside of approximately 17% based on a 20X NON-IFRS PE valuation for 2025 [16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The display technology iteration is disrupting the TV industry landscape, typically on a long cycle of several decades [12] - The current display technology upgrade is focused on Mini LED and OLED, with Mini LED leading in cost reduction and market penetration [19][30] - The profitability of black electrical companies is closely related to panel pricing and competitive landscape, with a shift towards a more stable pricing environment expected [2][4] Summary by Sections Display Technology Iteration - The TV industry has undergone two major technological iterations, with cost reduction being the primary driver for new technology adoption [12] - The current upgrade involves Mini LED and OLED technologies, with Mini LED showing a significant advantage in cost and market acceptance [19][30] - The initial investment costs for display technology upgrades are high, and incorrect technological paths can lead to significant financial burdens for companies [36] Black Electrical Stock Valuation and Profitability - Black electrical stocks are more suitable for PB valuation, with profitability levels influenced by panel pricing and competitive dynamics [2] - The supply-demand cycle for panels is expected to weaken, reducing its impact on long-term pricing [2] - Domestic price competition is easing, and the market share of Chinese brands is increasing, particularly in overseas markets [3][5] Short-term Changes in Black Electrical Stocks - Governance improvements in companies like Hisense and TCL are expected to boost market confidence and valuations [4] - Panel prices are anticipated to stabilize, enhancing the predictability of gross margins for TV manufacturers [4] - The correlation between panel supply-demand dynamics and gross margins is significant, with potential for improved profitability as the market stabilizes [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company, Maogeping, is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand in China, leveraging the unique IP of national makeup master Maogeping. The brand covers both makeup and skincare categories, with a broad potential customer base and a commitment to long-term brand strength enhancement. The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.88 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.29 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.5%, 30.3%, and 24.3% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 880 million, 1.17 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.3%, 32.6%, and 24.7% respectively [3][4][12]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected increase to 3.882 billion yuan in 2024, 5.060 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.291 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 57.78%, 34.52%, 30.33%, and 24.33% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 882 million yuan in 2024, 1.170 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.458 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 88.00%, 33.30%, 32.57%, and 24.66% respectively [4][5][12]. Business Model and Market Position - Maogeping's business model is unique, combining personal IP, a makeup school, and offline services. The company operates two major beauty brands, Maogeping and Ziai Zhongsheng, with a strong presence in both offline department stores and online platforms. The offline channel contributes significantly to revenue, with 372 self-operated counters nationwide, ranking second among all beauty brands in China [3][19][20]. Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care market in China is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with overall market growth slowing from a CAGR of 11% (2015-2019) to 3% (2019-2023). The skincare segment remains dominant, accounting for 51% of the market, while the makeup segment represents 11% [29][30]. The high-end beauty market is growing faster than the mass market, with a CAGR of 15% compared to 4% for mass products [22][24]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end cosmetics market is primarily dominated by international brands, which hold a significant market share. However, domestic brands like Maogeping are gradually increasing their presence, with the market share of leading domestic skincare brands rising from 6.5% in 2014 to 13.5% in 2023 [22][31]. The report highlights that brand strength and emotional connection are critical barriers to entry in this competitive landscape [29].

- The report utilizes a fundamental quantitative model to derive sector allocation recommendations based on historical data analysis [5][6][7] - The comprehensive strategy is constructed by allocating weights to sectors with upward or stable prosperity signals, while sectors with stable signals are assigned half the weight of those with upward signals [2][28] - The quantitative model's recent performance shows a monthly return of 0.3%, with excess returns of -1.1% relative to both the equal-weighted industry index and CSI 800 [2][28] - The automotive sector is identified as having upward prosperity signals, supported by policy incentives like trade-in programs and improving M1 growth rates, which sustain double-digit sales growth [8][9][11] - The building materials sector is highlighted for valuation recovery opportunities due to optimized supply-demand dynamics, evidenced by declining clinker inventory ratios [14] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in prosperity, driven by stabilization in real estate cycles and price recovery in new energy-related materials like lithium and photovoltaic products [15] - The photovoltaic sector shows initial signs of supply-demand improvement, with rising production and export growth rates alongside price stabilization, indicating potential recovery [17][18][20] - The new energy vehicle sector is projected to recover as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, signaling a balance in supply-demand dynamics [22] - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to benefit from government subsidies and AI-driven demand growth, with leading companies showing marginal revenue improvement [23][24][26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector is expected to see investment opportunities in 2025, despite facing pressure in 2024. Only three non-ST companies among 29 that disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts expect positive growth in net profit [20] - The improvement in gross margins for these companies is attributed to lower procurement prices for raw materials and optimized product sales structures. Operational efficiency and cost reduction are becoming key themes for development in the Chinese medicine sector [20] - The overall market for Chinese medicine is anticipated to recover, supported by declining prices of medicinal materials and the digestion of high inventory levels from previous periods [2] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Opportunities in Chinese Medicine - The performance forecast for the Chinese medicine sector in 2024 is under pressure, with only three companies expecting positive net profit growth. These companies benefit from improved gross margins due to lower raw material costs and optimized sales structures [20] - The operational efficiency of companies that achieve positive growth is generally better, as indicated by lower accounts receivable turnover days compared to those with negative growth [20] 2. Market Recovery Outlook - The Chinese medicine sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, with a gradual increase in gross margins as medicinal material prices decline. Additionally, the completion of inventory digestion is likely to lead to improved sales dynamics [2] - The policy environment is also becoming more favorable, with the impact of centralized procurement and price comparison policies expected to moderate [2] 3. Recommended Companies - Companies with strong brand power and effective price control, such as Dong'e Ejiao, Tongrentang, and Pianzihuang, are recommended for investment. Other companies like Tianshili and Jichuan Pharmaceutical are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [2]

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 ❑ 本周行情归因 （1）DeepSeek 热度持续攀升，DAU 达 2000 万；（2）人形机器人 2025 年春晚惊 艳亮相，行动能力及拟人化水平不断突破。 ❑ 下周行情展望 随着"国民应用"Deepseek 和春晚上人形机器人引爆市场情绪，市场延续了今年 1 月 13 日以来的反弹攻势继续向上，且成长指数的上攻力度明显超出预期。这也 意味着，自 1 月 13 日"左脚"形成以后，主要宽基指数都处于"左脚抬起"之后 的同一轮反弹过程中，且反弹级别已经扩大。换言之，即使本轮反弹结束出现回 落，大盘也较难跌破 1 月 13 日低点，市场重心明显被拉高。但是同时需要注意， 经过连续反弹尤其是短时间快速上攻后，多数主要指数（如上证、中证 1000、国 证 2000、创业板指、北证 50 等）都已经触及前期的筹码密集区，本周五午后的 快速下探也表明市场存在内生性调整的需要。综上，我们预计市场将沿着"惯性 上冲-回踩'黄金右脚'整固-继续上攻"的路径运行，短线追涨需谨慎，但是中 线依旧看好。 配置方面，基于"惯性上冲-回踩'黄金右脚'整固-继续上攻"的判断，我们建 议投资 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 白酒春节平稳过渡，位置比择时更重要 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 2 月第 1 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：我们认为白酒春节在高基数的背景下实现平稳过渡，二季度后食 饮板块将进入低基数区间，当前位置比择时更重要，建议积极配置；中长期 看，白酒重视具备较强品牌势能、库存更早出清、增速目标合理的龙头标 的，大众品关注高景气和餐饮修复两条主线，同时关注 25 年零售变革大年 有望带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块：白酒春节表现符合预期，苏酒徽酒等区域龙头酒表现较优、高端 酒表现平稳，我们认为位置比择时更重要，建议当前位置可考虑积极配置。 十四届全国人大三次会议将于 2025 年 3 月 5 日在京召开，政策预期催化下 或迎白酒结构牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低基数修 复"两条主线：①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐五粮液/贵州茅台，次高端 及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/迎驾贡酒/今世缘/山西汾酒；②低基数修复的弹性： 高端酒推荐泸州老窖，次高端及区域酒推荐水井坊/老白干酒。 大众品板块：我们针对 2025 年大众品板块的投资主线，主要总结为两点， 即景气度主线和修复主线 ...

证券研究报告 | 市场评论 | 中国策略 （2）从我们构建的 AI 指数（Wind PMS：【浙商策略】AI 指数）视角，AI 含量高 的场内基金包括云 50ETF、数据 ETF、通信 ETF、人工智能 ETF、科创芯片设计 ETF、电信 50ETF、大数据 ETF、信创 ETF、5GETF、计算机 ETF、信息安全 ETF、 软件 ETF、物联网 ETF 等。 ❑ 风险提示 主题行情持续性不及预期。宏观经济走势不及预期。 哪些 ETF 的 DeepSeek 和 AI 的含量高 ——DeepSeek 和 AI 的 ETF 投资标的 核心观点 市场评论 报告日期：2025 年 02 月 07 日 DeepSeek 的横空出世，以其颠覆性的低成本、高性能和开源理念，重塑着全球 AI 产 业竞争格局。全球 AI 热点事件的不断催化，使得 AI 和 DeepSeek 有望成为贯穿 2025 年的投资主线之一。我们对场内共 858 只股票基金进行筛选，结合公开和我们构建的 AI 和 DeepSeek 指数，挑选出了 4 组 AI 和 DeepSeek 含量高的 ETF 供投资者参考。 （1）从 DeepSeek 指数（ ...